BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC on ESPN+ 28 Location – Brasilia, Brazil
This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in Brazil. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $125,000 being paid out. I will probably stick to the top GPPs this week and mainly chase that $25k. I will probably throw a handful of lineups in that contest and then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE and 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week and playing 50/50s and double ups.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights and hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Veronica Macedo $9,100 vs Bae Malecki $7,100
I haven’t seen anything from Macedo to warrant being a 65% favorite over another UFC fighter. I think the line is too wide here, it is a dog or pass fight for me. Malecki can win this fight on the feet and she will have a 5-inch height advantage with a 10-inch reach advantage in this fight. I think she will be landing more volume and the harder strikes. Macedo is going to want to get this fight to the mat but I still think her best shot is a submission and if she can’t get it then Malecki will probably get back to her feet where she has the edge. I don’t have confidence in Malecki here, but the line is off IMO, so I will take her to get the upset because there is no way I would bet Macedo at her price.
At $9.1k, Macedo is probably priced out of my lineups. She could get a 1st round sub and ruin my night but that is probably going to be the risk I take. Maybe she makes 1 lineup of mine but with 10 or less she would be an easy fade for me. Malecki is my preferred play here and at $7.1k I think she is in play in all formats. I will likely try to be overweight on her because I am picking her to win, but I don’t think she has much of a ceiling here. She is just cheap and a live dog. I also like targeting the first fight on cards so that’s another reason I like her. I would guess she makes 20-30% of my lineups this weekend and I think she probably would get more than 10x in a win.
Winner – Bae Malecki via Split decision
Bruno Silva $8,200 vs David Dvorak $8,000
Dvorak is making his UFC debut here after winning his last 13 fights on the regional scene. He is a finisher on the feet and the mat, but he is going to want to keep this fight standing. I do give Silva the edge on the ground and if he can get it there he could pull off a submission himself. I don’t think he is a good enough wrestler to control where this fight takes place though, so he will need to shoot often to get takedowns and I don’t want to rely on that from a favorite when I don’t favor him standing. This is another dog or pass fight for me and I will take the underdog to get a (T)KO in this fight.
I love the mid-range this week and this is another fight I think we should be targeting. Either of these guys could finish this weekend and we have a -165 FDGTD line with salaries of $8.2 and $8k. A finish in any round here could put the winner on the optimal and I am interested in both for that reason. Dvorak is my preferred play because I am picking him here and he is cheaper. Silva is very in play as well and I think duplicating your favorite Silva LUs and throwing Dvorak in there instead is a decent idea this week. I won’t go too heavy on this fight but that could be the approach I take with my Silva lineups and then make some Dvorak LUs where I leave $0 or $100 on the table. I wouldn’t want to trust either of these guys in cash but with the finishing potential in this fight I don’t think we should fade it in GPPs. If you want to take a stand on one guy and fade the other, I think that is fine, I just don’t trust either guy enough for that personally.
Winner – David Dvorak via 3rd round (T)KO
Mayra Bueno Silva $8,500 vs Maryna Moroz $7,700
Moroz is going to need to keep this fight on the feet to have a shot here IMO. I do think she is the faster striker and can win if she keeps it standing. Silva should have a big edge on the ground though and she could be live on the feet as well, I just haven’t seen enough from her there. With this being in Brazil, I can’t pick against Silva and I will take her to pick up a submission in this fight.
Bueno Silva is my preferred play here because I think she is the only one with any real ceiling. She doesn’t have an ITD line as I type this, but it will be way better than Moroz who is at +735 and will just be relying on her significant strikes for points. I am not very interested in her, but I do want some shots on Silva here and I will likely try to be overweight to the field. I think she will have a big edge on the ground and could finish the fight early. At her salary, we might need her to if that is the case. I like Silva in all formats this weekend but Moroz will mostly be a fade for me.
Winner – Mayra Bueno Silva via 2nd round Submission
Enrique Barzola $8,700 vs Rani Yahya $7,500
I think this will be a fight that stays on the feet for the most part. Barzola is the better wrestler, but Yahya is a dangerous submission grappler, so I don’t see Barzola wanting to take it there. I see Barzola winning a striking based decision while stuffing takedowns and landing more volume on the feet. I think he could be in trouble though if Yahya gets the fight to the mat, so I wouldn’t want to lay the juice at -170 and it might even be a dog or pass fight for me on the betting line.
Barzola was my preferred play on DraftKings but I am getting the feeling he might be popular this week. If I knew he was going to be chalky at all then I would probably want to fade him here. This isn’t our typical Barzola fight where he could get ~10 takedowns and break the slate. He is probably going to be relying on significant strikes in this matchup and if that’s the case then I don’t see him paying off his price tag without a finish. I think Yahya is intriguing because he should be fairly low owned. Also, a win from him could kill off 30% or so of the field that is on Barzola and possibly get finishing points from Yahya at lower ownership. That is making Yahya my preferred play now, but I don’t think he gets the win, so I probably won’t be too overweight on him. For cash games, I think you can make a case for either side and I wouldn’t talk you off either guy if you want to use them there.
Winner – Enrique Barzola via Unanimous Decision
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos $8,400 vs Aleksei Kunchenko $7,800
I think this will be a close striking battle, but Dos Santos is the faster and possibly more dangerous fighter of the two and he will have the Brazil fans on his side. (Update: Not anymore) He is coming off a KO loss, but I think he is more likely to get the win here as long as his chin holds up. If it is a close fight, I think he could get some extra love on the scorecards with the Brazil fans cheering for him every time he lands something. (Still no fans) Not a confident pick here but this would be a favorite or pass fight for me at this line.
This is one of the harder fights to figure out what I want to do with this fight. I think I will just make this a fight that goes into one of my last spots in lineups based on what fits, but I won’t force it in any lineups. It does have a -165 Fight Goes To Decision line and I think that makes it a fight we don’t have to target. At their salaries, we will be in trouble if either finishes and we don’t’ have it, but I am not sure that the winner would be on the optimal with a decision win. My preferred play is EZDS, but I have no issue moving down to Kunchenko if I need the salary. I won’t trust either fight in cash games, but I will mix both guys into GPPs where they fit.
Winner – Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos via Unanimous Decision
Amanda Ribas $9,300 vs Randa Markos $6,900
I think Ribas is the better fighter anywhere this fight goes. I think Ribas is a legit prospect in this division and this could even be a step down from her last fight where she dominated. I think Ribas can win with a submission, TKO, or a unanimous decision here and I think she is a solid parlay piece this week. Markos will likely need to try to grind Ribas out with takedowns, but I don’t think she can win 2 rounds here unless she gets some help from the judges.
Ribas in cash is my favorite move for this fight. I think she has a higher floor than Moicano and I do like her to get the win here. I just don’t know that she pays off her $9.3k price tag. I will probably be low on this fight altogether, but she will make my GPP pool. I think you can go the same way with Markos as well. She is an OK cash game punt and if she can find a way to win this fight she will pay off her salary in GPPs. I just don’t like her to get the win and she won’t have super low ownership IMO that would make it worth going overweight on her. I think we can get away from this fight but for me it will likely be Ribas or pass.
Winner – Amanda Ribas via Unanimous Decision
Jussier Formiga $8,800 vs Brandon Moreno $7,100
Moreno has really impressed me in his last two fights and I think he has a big edge in the striking in this matchup. He is a good grappler as well, but he won’t want to test Formiga there and that is what Formiga will be looking to do himself. I do give Formiga the edge on the ground and he could also backpack Moreno and win a boring round that way or get a RNC submission. At 34 years old, I have to think Formiga is going to be on the decline while Moreno is on the rise. I think this is closer to a 50/50 fight, so I will take Moreno to get the upset by winning the striking exchanges.
I will probably be Moreno or pass on this fight. I know Jussier can get a submission here, but I don’t see him getting enough takedowns to pay off his price if he doesn’t get that sub. There is also some line value on Moreno at his price here, so he is a guy that I probably look to get in 30% or more of my lineups this week. I don’t see him having a big ceiling either unless he gets a KO, but he is one of the more live dogs on the card and he is only $7.4k on DK. I think he will be one of the most popular dogs in cash this week and he would be a dog I look to get into my cash lineup. I think we can fade this fight altogether in GPPs if we want because of his high ownership but I don’t think I can pass on that value myself.
Winner – Brandon Moreno via Split Decision
Francisco Trinaldo $8,900 vs John Makdessi $7,300
This should be a striker vs grappler matchup. Trinaldo can hang on the feet here but aside from a KO, he will likely be outpointed by Makdessi for the majority of the striking exchanges. Trinaldo will be the fighter looking to get this fight to the mat though and that is his big path to victory here. He can use his wrestling to win rounds and I think he is live for a submission or GNP finish as well. He has big power and I do think he will have success with takedowns and that is why I will pick him to win here. I am just not confident enough that he can win at least 2 rounds that way and -165 is probably a little too high for me.
This is a tricky one for me and one I think we can fade. This fight is -170 to go to decision and I don’t think either fighter scores well if that is the case. Trinaldo doesn’t wrestle enough to get there at his salary and he isn’t active enough on the feet either. He needs to rack up takedowns and advances here or get a finish to end up on the optimal and I don’t want to invest much in that. Makdessi probably needs a KO to end up on the optimal, but since he is cheap, I think he is in play. They won’t have a Brazilian crowd at the event so the judges shouldn’t be swayed from a crowd cheering on Trinaldo every time he lands something. I think Makdessi is more live here because of that but we will purely be relying on significant strikes because he won’t shoot for any takedowns. Mostly dog or pass for me here but not a bad fight to fully fade if you are making 5 or less LUs.
Winner – Francisco Trinaldo via Unanimous Decision
Johnny Walker $8,600 vs Nikita Krylov $7,600
Walker seems like a KO or bust fighter to me, but his power is real and if he can connect on Krylov, he can absolutely put him out. Krylov has more ways to win this fight though and he could get a KO himself, or he can work his ground game and look to submit Walker. I think the best bet in this fight is that it won’t go to decision. I think Walker by KO is the most likely outcome here, so I will pick him to get that, but I won’t be betting him at that line.
This is likely an all-in fight for me. I am going to have this fight and the main event in basically every lineup I build this week. I think this is a scary one for cash games, but for GPPs it is a must have with its -490 FDGTD line. At their salaries, I have a hard time seeing this fight not on the optimal and I think Walker will be the highest owned fighter on the card. I do want to be heavy on him still because he has a -105 ITD line and if he gets the KO in round 1, I think he will be on the optimal. Krylov is a sneaky play as well because he could kill off 50+% of the field with a win and he will be much lower owned. He has finishing ability on the feet and the ground, so I want to be sure to be overweight on him as well. I think I will lean 60/40 in favor of Walker here but load up on both sides if you are MMEing.
Winner – Johnny Walker via 1st round (T)KO
Renato Moicano $9,400 vs Damir Hadzovic $6,800
I think Moicano is the better fighter everywhere here. His chin is my only real concern. I think he is the better striker but Hadzovic has more power and Moicano is coming off back to back TKO losses. If Moicano can get this fight to the mat, he should have a huge edge and can pick up the submission in any round. As long as Moicano doesn’t get knocked out, he should win this fight.
I will have shares of both guys here, but I don’t think this is a must have fight at all. Moicano is the most expensive fighter on the card so I think we will need a finish from him to end up on the $25k lineup. I think he can do that with a submission, but I don’t trust him to wrestle enough to be overly confident in that and at his price I think we can stay away if we want. Hadzovic is live for the knockout upset here though with Moicano coming off back to back knockout losses. Maybe his chin is gone and Hadzovic can test it. He is the cheapest fighter on the card, so I think he will be a lock for the nuts lineup if he can get it. I want some shares in case that happens. I would think I only have 1-2 Hadzovic and 1-3 Moicano LUs if I am making 10 total lineups this week.
Winner – Renato Moicano via 2nd round Submission
Gilbert Burns $9,000 vs Demian Maia $7,200
These are two of the best BJJ players in the UFC and I feel like the ground game could cancel out here. I am not sure who to give the advantage to there, but I do give Burns a decent edge on the feet and I think the betting line looks correct for that reason. Maia is always live though if the fight hits the mat, so I don’t think I would want to lay -185 on Burns, but I will take him to get the win here.
Maia is my preferred play here just because he is so cheap, and he will be the one looking to get the fight to the mat. He will be going for takedowns and if he can get them then maybe he can pull off a submission. Burns is just too pricey for me to invest much in because he probably needs a knockout to score well because I think we will be relying on significant strike stats from him. He might make my player pool, but I will probably be underweight to the field and maybe overweight on Maia. I think this is Maia or pass for cash games as well.
Winner – Gilbert Burns via Unanimous Decision
Kevin Lee $8,300 vs Charles Oliveira $7,900
I have been real high on both these guys and this is a tough matchup. Lee is the better wrestler and more powerful striker. Oliveira is the better grappler and is much more dangerous on the ground. I think Lee will want to keep this fight on the feet, but I think it will be close there unless he can get a KO. Oliveira is going to want this fight on the mat and I think Lee could be in trouble if that happens. I do think Lee should be the slight favorite here, but I wouldn’t want to lay juice on either guy, so I will say it is dog or pass on the betting line and I’ll take Oliveira by submission.
On DraftKings, this is an easy all-in fight for me at their price tags. If this fight finishes, there is almost no way the winner won’t be on the optimal lineup with their mid-range salaries. The only way this doesn’t end up on the optimal is if there is an eye poke, NC or something crazy like that. I won’t have 150 lineups, so I won’t be banking on something wild like that to happen and this fight will be in every lineup I create. I will also likely stack in cash just to lock in the winner because I know people will be confident enough in whoever they like to go solo and I think that is the wrong move. Do Bronx is my preferred play though because he is cheaper, and if he can get this fight to the mat I think he can submit Lee. I won’t go super heavy on him though and I will probably be around 60/40 in favor of Do Bronx.
Winner – Charles Oliveira via 1st round Submission
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!
We had to skip the skillset breakdowns this week because Prediction Guru was not available to get them done in time this week so I only through my usually two paragraphs per fight in. These are always the last two paragraphs in my usual breakdowns, but the full breakdowns should be back next week.
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