Hello again, Army! My winter hibernation is finally over, as NASCAR has returned to action. While it’s only a 75-lap exhibition race, it’s still a race, so let’s see how we can win some money!
As always, be sure to check out my driver list & tools suite and the coach’s cheat sheet. If you have any questions, reach out to me in Slack at #nillys-garage-nas-mlb and I’ll be happy to help however I can.
Busch Clash at Daytona International Speedway
While they technically aren’t “plate races” any longer, they still race the same way, so expect to see 75 laps of nose-to-bumper-to-nose racing with the potential big wreck here and there. Now, since this is basically a “pre-season” race, I don’t expect to see the drivers get too wild (like they will be for the 500), so keep that in mind as we talk about drivers.
Weekend approach
Since there are only 75 laps, we only need up to one dominator on both sites. Finishing position and place differential are king here, so the basic approach would be to load up on drivers in the middle/back portion of the field and hope they finish in the top-5 (and/or survive any wrecks). Optionally, you can sprinkle in a dominator from the front/middle of the field (more on that later).
As usual, I don’t recommend playing cash games here, especially since it’s the first race of the season. There will be far better races for that later! I feel mostly the same about single entry GPP, but I won’t argue against it.
Rather, I recommend multi-entry GPP here over anything else, as it’s quantity over quality here. The winning lineup could leave $5,000 on the table just as easily as it could leave $500, so don’t get too hung up on salary (or spending as much of it as possible). Next weekend will be more of the same, so use this as a practice session for the duels and the 500.
Core drivers
There’s one that stands out above the rest, and that’s Denny Hamlin. He starts dead last, looks to be in solid form, and while he’s near the top of the price chart, he’s got the easiest path of paying off his salary. He won’t need to lead any laps to be in the winning lineup, but like I mentioned in my notes on him, he can easily make or break the slate. Seeing that this isn’t a race I expect a lot of chaos with, I’m leaning more towards just eating the chalk here. However, if you want to get funky, this would be priority fade #1 if you want to be different from the crowd.
Side note, I’m calling Denny to be the 2020 NASCAR Champion. You saw it here first!
While he’s not quite a core play, Austin Dillon is very close. Close enough that I’m just going to list him here. He’s the cheapest driver in the field, he’s starting 15th, and love him or hate him, he’s a solid “plate” race driver. He’s got a direct path to be in the nuts, and is top-5 capable with a little help (he finished 6th at last year’s Clash).
Main GPP drivers
The usual suspects can be found here; Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick are high on the list, and with their starting positions/salaries, they can be mixed and matched with anybody. They don’t need to dominate, but I do see Harvick as a late-race dominator option should the race stay clean and we see an extended green flag run. You can pair them with a front-runner dominator, if desired.
If you’re going the dominator route, Brad Keselowski is your first choice. He’ll likely need to dominate to pay off, but he does have one of the easiest paths of doing it. He won’t be sneaky by any means, and he’s looked a little shaky (yes I know it’s very early in the season), so if you’re looking for a place to fade some ownership and make some pivots, this would be a decent place to do it. I would probably avoid pairing him with anybody else in the top-5, and possibly the top-8 or so.
I want to mention Erik Jones next. He’s not a core value play (Austin is the closest we have to that), but he’s not too far behind. He’s cheap, starts 12th (which will hopefully keep his ownership down a little bit), and is just as likely to grab a top-5 as almost anybody else in the field. Use him as a direct pivot to the other cheap drivers or pair him up with them, but be sure to have some exposure here. One of my favorites on the slate!
Logano and Blaney are next, and while their salaries aren’t exactly comparable, their floor/ceilings are practically the same. Seeing that raw FP will be more important than value this week, you can split ownership here with confidence (if you want to be different, go heavier on Blaney).
Finally, Kurt represents a pretty good looking value play, seeing that he’s starting 17th and is inexpensive. I do think Austin will be more popular, but Kurt should have a fair amount of ownership as well. What concerns me is that he hasn’t looked very impressive yet, and we have yet to see how the updated Chevy cars will look in an actual race. If he’s not able to really put it together, I could see him finishing in the top-15 somewhere, not the top-8 or so that he would need to really pay off (I think he’s going to be more reliant on other Chevy cars than Austin will be). With all that in mind, if you take Kurt, be sure to pair him up with other Chevy cars. If you go light or fade him, take more shares of Toyota/Ford cars.
GPP pivots
There are two main places to make pivots this week; the middle/back drivers and a dominator. Basically, everybody from about 10th on back is in play, and you can mix and match them as you please. If you want to narrow it down, I would look at Logano/Blaney, Elliott, and Johnson.
For a dominator, Truex is the main pivot, followed by Larson and Bowman/Byron. While I don’t love those other three, they won’t have a ton of ownership, and we’ll need some lower-owned drivers like that to stand out from the others. If nothing else, those three make solid plays on FanDuel for ownership purposes!
The same could be said for Bowyer and Almirola, but I have a hard time getting behind them. Sprinkle them around if you want to throw some darts, as they are likely to be among the least owned drivers in the field. Again, they make solid FanDuel pivots (ownership!) if you aren’t taking them on DraftKings.
Closing thoughts
Not much left to touch on here. Remember that it’s a long season (the longest of any sport), so play within your means and enjoy the ride from winter to fall. Good luck, and I’ll see you all in Slack!