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DFS Madness’s DraftKings NBA Core 4 – Feb. 9th, 2020

Welcome to the Core 4! My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the article throughout the day as news breaks. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!

Purpose of the Core 4: These four players are guys that I want to lock into my cash game lineups and if doing multi-entry, using the Domination Station lock them in or set high exposure percentages to them. These are players that I see as underpriced, in great matchups, in play because of injuries, increased usage, etc. I also need to mention that these plays are normally geared toward Draftkings pricing and scoring, I’m not a huge fan of NBA for Fanduel, so if you see my list has three small forwards or two centers, etc. it’s because of the multi-position eligibility on Draftkings. With that said, let’s jump right into it!

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Process:

I’ve had a lot of people ask me how I get to my core guys or what do I use to get to these guys to set a foundation for my lineups, so I’m introducing a new section to this article that I’m hoping can lead this to be a little more process-based and help all of you either find a core that you like or simply see how I got to these guys so you know I’m not just pulling them out of my ass! With that said, let’s get this puppy started!

Recognizing Value:

When it comes to NBA DFS value is truly king and being able to pinpoint underpriced guys will go along way in your success in this sport. With that said, the first thing I do is head right to the Research Station (or Domination Station if you’re closer to lock) and go ahead and sort by “Value” or “PP/$”. This will then sort the player pool from the highest projected value to lowest. Many of you will see that I post my Core 4 results on Twitter and it will say something along the lines of Joel Embiid – 6.2x, that “x” number is the particular value that the player was able to reach at their price tag. That’s why questions in slack like “James Harden or Donte DiVincenzo” are incredibly difficult to answer because Harden is the obvious better play from a raw points perspective, but DiVincenzo may have a higher value. You can also scroll to the right in the Research Station and find the two columns that will tell you how the player has performed relative to a 6x (cash) or 7x (GPP) marker this season, as seen below.

 

 

 

And1 Rating:

Once we have determined the top value options on the slate we can begin to dig a little deeper into what makes them a good play. The And1 rating is an all-encompassing metric that will lead you to the best plays on each slate each day. As you’re looking through your “sorted” Research Station or Domination Station, you will want to look for a green shade in the And1 column, green is good, red is bad!

Opportunity:

In the NBA, opportunity is everything which is very different from other sports. In baseball, a guy could get a spot start and get five at-bats and do absolutely nothing with them. That is typically not the case in NBA, if a guy is injured or out for some reason, usually a guy at a cheaper price tag will jump right into a decent role and be able to produce from a fantasy perspective no matter the actual NBA talent of the player. This is where I keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for injuries or updates on potential value guys that we could look at starting.

Matchup/Pace:

Lastly, you don’t want a guy in a bad matchup, that much seems pretty obvious. That said, there are scenarios where I’m able to live with a poor DvP%. I’m a big believer in pace being a better representation of DFS production that simply defense vs. position especially in today’s NBA where some times are running up and down the court forcing the other team to play up to there speed. This is where I got to the Research Station and scroll over and find the “Vegas” and “Pace” section. Simply put, the more points scored in a game, the better for DFS production. You want to target guys with a + pace boost, also noted by having a green shade in this column.

Reverse Engineering:

This is where I like to take a look at yesterday’s Core 4 article and see how it did, as mentioned above, the “x” is the value that the player created based on their price tag. Generally, we want to hit 6x for cash games and 7x for GPPs.

  • Fred VanVleet – 41 DraftKings points; 5.9x value
  • Nemanja Bjelica – 35 DraftKings points; 6.4x value
  • Jamal Murray – 54.25 DraftKings points; 8.9x value
  • Terence Davis – 35 DraftKings points; 9.2x value

Overall it was a very good night, if you were in slack you know that I jumped off  Murray as a core with some news that broke, but he still made for a great play and you aren’t regretting it if you didn’t pivot off of him. Terence Davis ended up being pretty chalky, but at 9.2x you almost needed either him or Malik Beasley if you wanted to cash. I would have liked to get more out of VanVleet but he was a core due to his high floor and that’s about what he got us last night. Lastly, Bjelica was just too cheap and did exactly what I thought he would do, a great night for the core.


Today’s Core 4:

Bam Adebayo (C) – $8,300

We start with the Heat traveling to Portland to take on the Trailblazers in a 228 implied game total. Jimmy Butler has been ruled out for this game which opens up a ton of usage on this team and more shots to go around. With Butler, Winslow, Leonard, and Herro off the court this season, Adebayo has a 25.4% usage rate to go along with 1.57 fantasy points per minute and should see 35+ minutes in this spot. He has an And1 rating of 16.0 and is in a +3.3 pace up spot against the Blazers. Not only this, but I have been streaming big men against the Blazers and Hassan Whiteside over the past few weeks and it has been very profitable. I did a little breakdown of how big men have faired against Whiteside when I wrote up LaMarcus Aldridge this past week…

  • Nikola Jokic – 69.75 DraftKings points – 7x
  • Rudy Gobert – 30.25 DraftKings points – 3.6x
  • Anthony Davis – 78.25 DraftKings points – 8.2x
  • Clint Capela – 10.75 DraftKings points (only played 17 minutes)
  • Domantas Sabonis – 66 DraftKings points – 7.6x
  • Kristaps Porzingis – 34.75 DraftKings points – 4.3x
  • Eric Pascall – 44.75 DraftKings points – 8.4x
  • Nerlens Noel – 32.25 DraftKings points – 6.45x
  • Clint Capela – 43.5 DraftKings points – 5.4x
  • PJ Washington – 48.75 DraftKings points – 9.8x
  • LaMarcus Aldridge – 42.5 DraftKings points – 6.5x

So if we exclude the Capela game where he played just 17 minutes, opposing big men are averaging 6.7x their price tags over the past ten games against Whiteside. The price is a little higher than I would like but I think it will keep his ownership down, I love Adebayo here.

Mike Conley (PG) – $5,400

The second piece of the core will be traveling to Houston to take on the Rockets in a game that has a 232.5 implied game total. Conley returned from injury a few games ago but has really started to see his minutes increase over the past three games playing at least 30 in each of them. Not only that, but the production is there as well, he has scored at least 32 DraftKings points in three straight games. The thing that stands out about Conley is his price, he is far too cheap for this spot. At the moment he is projected for a 6.1x PP/$ in the Domination Station with an And1 rating of 15.2, not to mention that this is a massive pace up spot for the Jazz where they are seeing a +5.3 bump on their usual pace. I’ll be pretty heavy on Mike Conley tonight.

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Paul George (SF) – $8,100

I’m expecting Kawhi Leonard to sit in this matchup with the Cavaliers on the second leg of a back-to-back which means fire up all the Paul George! With that said, we don’t have anything official on who will sit for the Clippers but I would guarantee one of their superstars does and I will be making the one who does not sit a core play. Right now I’m thinking it will be Kawhi who sits but keep an eye out for an update. With Kawhi Leonard off the court this season George has a usage rate of 34.8% and 1.57 fantasy points per minute. Not only that but he gets a 102% DvP percentage against a bad Cavs team, a 14.2 And1 rating and is currently projected for 5.77x in the Domination Station, I will have a lot of George if Kawhi is ultimately ruled out.

Zach LaVine (SG) – $7,900

We round out the Core 4 with Mr. Zach LaVine. He is currently listed as questionable but I’ll be operating under the assumption that he plays here. He just feels way too cheap here, he’s proven to have a 70+ point upside this season and has been very consistent with a high floor. The Research Station currently has him projected for 5.9x value on his price tag which is something I love. Keep in mind that the higher the price tag the lower the projected value will normally be, you’ll likely never see a projected 9x out of a $9k guy kind of like we saw on Willie Cauley-Stein last night. So a 5.9x projection is very playable for someone at LaVine’s price, he also has an And1 rating of 12.0 and with all the injuries on this team, the offense will run through him. With Dunn, Porter, Markkanen, and Carter off the court this season he has a 32.9% usage rate to go along with 1.17 fantasy points per minute. If we lock in these four guys we are left with $5075 per player to construct the rest of our lineup and on a Sunday where weird things usually happen and value tends to open up, this is very doable. Good luck tonight!


As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches. If you don’t know about them, our two newest pages contain Breaking News and our exclusive Coaches’ Picks……both invaluable for late-breaking news and pivots in NBA.