Welcome to the DFS Army NHL Game Break! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process. I am @LowOwnedWR and you can find me out on Twitter. But you’ll really find me in our VIP coaching forums inside coaching and detailing plays and strategic hockey maneuvers in an attempt to make our members better, more fundamentally sound players. If you are looking for it, we cover it as a team! Follow me, follow us, interact with me, interact with us, we welcome it all.
NHL DFS At A Glance
These are all of stats/rates that I like to look at for teams. I feel as it helps give you an idea of which team is shooting the puck (which will result in goals) and who is giving up the most shots (which will result in goals) and more, let’s break those down.
ODDS: The % chance that the team will win the game. Teams with the highest % to win goalies tend to be chalk and good cash plays.
O/U: The predicted combined score of the teams playing in said matchup. 6.5 will be the highest that you will see and 5.5 will be the lowest.
ITT: Implied Team Total; looking at this can help you tell what the chalk will be, the team with the highest ITT on the slate will be the chalkiest and the lowest will be the lowest owned. In GPPs it can be good to just cut out the top team or two in ITT and build from that.
GF/60: The amount of goals a team has scored per 60 minutes of time on ice.
GA/60: The amount of goals a team has allowed per 60 minutes of time on ice.
xGF/60: Expected Goals For per 60 minutes of time on ice. Example being, a shot in really close from the slot might have a .35 xG (expected goal) value or higher, meaning, that the higher a teams xGF/60 is, the more high quality chances that team is creating. Nothing can be worth 1.0 xG.
xGA/60: Expected Goals Against per 60 minutes of time on ice. Example being, a team allowed a rebound right outside the crease, that shot is likely to have a .3 xG value or higher, meaning, if a team is allowing rebounds, high danger chances or basically anything that can be a predictor for future goals allowed, you can use xGA/60 to see that.
SF/60: Shots For per 60 minutes of ice time. You can use this to see what goalies are potentially going to see a lot of shots (meaning they have a higher ceiling) or what defensemen are going to see a lot of Blocked Shots opportunity.
SA/60: Shots Against per 60 minutes of ice time. You can use this to see what teams have been bleeding shots so you can target skaters going against them, also teams with a higher SA/60 goalies tend to have higher ceilings and they also tend to be cheap because they are normally projected to lose.
PP%: Power Play Goals divided by Power Play Attempts. Teams with higher PP% tend to score more goals.
PK%: Measures the rate in which a team prevents their opponents from scoring on the Power Play. Teams with a higher PK% tend to allow less goals.
vMatchup: Averaging up GA/60, xGA/60 and SA/60 and giving it a value. Target teams in the RED as they are giving up the most goals and shots.
vOffense: Averaging up GF/60, xGF/60 and SF/60 and giving it a value. Look at teams with the higher ratings as they are scoring more goals and have players who are shooting the puck.
If you have questions regarding these numbers or this chart, don’t hesitate to ask me on our coaching forums. Just tag me (@LowOwnedWR) and let’s get on the same page.
Quick Read: NHL Cash Game Basics – Get The Fundamentals First
(All stats below from last ten games)
Detroit Red Wings @ New Jersey Devils
Detroit Red Wings: With Detroit boasting a vOffense of less than .8, not even the Devils can convince me to roster them tonight.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
New Jersey Devils: Blake Coleman at $4600 on FD is a great value but NJ got priced up on DK and I am not paying max price to play New Jersey
5 star plays – Blake Coleman (FD)
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – Blake Coleman (FD)
GPP Sleeper – none
St. Louis Blues @ Vegas Golden Knights
St. Louis Blues: The Blues are implied 2.6 and Vegas at home is one of the toughest matchups in the league. Vince Dunn is near min price on both sites and has been a stat sheet king in his last 2 games, he is my St. Louis exposure tonight.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Vince Dunn
Cash viable – Vince Dunn
GPP Sleeper – Vince Dunn
Vegas Golden Knights: Reilly Smith remains too cheap to me, especially with the return of Karlsson to the line up. This game does not look to be high scoring so I am not breaking the bank with any pieces from it.
5 star plays – Reilly Smith
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – Reilly Smith
GPP Sleeper – Reilly Smith
Columbus Blue Jackets @ Buffalo Sabres
Columbus Blue Jackets: Columbus is only averaging 2.12 GF/60 over their last 10 and Buffalo has played better defense, not a Blue Jackets type of night.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Buffalo Sabres: The Elvis in Columbus has most certainly not left the building, rostering players against Columbus lately has not been the move and I do not intend to make it the move tonight.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – Jack Eichel
New York Rangers @ Minnesota Wild
New York Rangers: Both of these teams are averaging over 40% on the PP but still neither are averaging above 2.2 GF/60 0ver that time, and that PP% is guaranteed to go down, this is a game where I would be the under.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Minnesota Wild: Matt Dumba remains near min price on FD.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Matt Dumba (FD)
Cash viable – Matt Dumba (FD)
GPP Sleeper – none
Dallas Stars @ Toronto Maple Leafs
Dallas Stars: Toronto is by no means a great team on D and the value of Dallas is amazing but their offensive production just REALLY has not been there and I am tired of chasing the nights that I think it may improve.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Toronto Maples Leafs: Dallas is a tough matchup for Toronto, even at home. Matthews will somehow still be chalk on both sites but I think cheaper John Tavares is going to go under 5-10% owned on each site making him my favorite GPP play of the night.
5 star plays – John Tavares
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – John Tavares
GPP Sleeper – John Tavares
Edmonton Oilers @ Tampa Bay Lightning
Edmonton Oilers: Leon is basically the only restorable Oiler right now and I am not even remotely considering him on the road against Tampa.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Tampa Bay Lightning: Stamkos and Kucherov injury news needs to be heavily monitored as if either are active either of them become great plays against a not great team already with Connor McDavid, without him.
5 star plays – Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman
4 star plays – Yanni Gourde
Cash viable – Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman, Yanni Gourde
GPP Sleeper – Yanni Gourde
Philadelphia Flyers @ Florida Panthers
Philadelphia Flyers: There are just better spots on this slate than a Philly team that is already shaky, on the road.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Florida Panthers: Barkov and Huberdeau at home and both should be low owned, that is where I would keep the Panthers exposure tonight as they are due for a blow up spot.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – Aleksander Barkov
Arizona Coyotes @ Ottawa Senators
Arizona Coyotes: Taylor Hall has at least 10 DK points in 4 out of his last 5 games and gets one of the weaker teams in the league tonight in the Senators. Most will spend up for Matthews, MacKinnon and Ovechkin, so Hall is a great GPP play tonight.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Taylor Hall
Cash viable – Taylor Hall
GPP Sleeper – Taylor Hall
Ottawa Senators: No Senators tonight.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
New York Islanders @ Nashville Predators
New York Islanders: This game is tied for the lowest total on an 11 game slate, that is not something I am looking to touch.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Nashville Predators: John Hynes really might get fired twice in the same season by two different teams, absolute fade.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Washington Capitals @ Colorado Avalanche
Washington Capitals: Vrana price remains low but his production has fallen so I am just limiting my exposure to just Ovechkin this time around.
5 star plays – Alex Ovechkin
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – Alex Ovechkin
GPP Sleeper – TJ Oshie
Colorado Avalanche: Burakovsky has gotten the bump to COL1 and is great value on both sites. The only team on the slate with a worse vMatchup rating than the Capitals is the Devils, so I am locking MacKinnon into my lineup tonight.
5 star plays – Nathan MacKinnon, Andre Burakovsky
4 star plays – Cale Makar
Cash viable – Nathan MacKinnon, Andre Burakovsky, Cale Makar
GPP Sleeper – Cale Makar
Calgary Flames @ Anaheim Ducks
Calgary Flames: The only team on a B2B on an 11 game slate is a complete fade from me.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Anaheim Ducks: The matchup here is for sure intriguing but we do not roster the Ducks on an 11 game slate.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Goalies:
Elvis Merzlikins (DK): Without a doubt the best goalie in the league in the last month and he is only $7300 against a Buffalo team that cannot figure out that Jeff Skinner is good and give him real opportunity.
MacKenzie Blackwood (FD): This is where everyone will be going on FD tonight as it is the best goalie value there, hard not to like him at home at $7500 against Detroit who has .736 vOffense rating, lowest on the slate by a wide margin.