Welcome to the DFS Army NHL Game Break! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process. I am @LowOwnedWR and you can find me out on Twitter. But you’ll really find me in our VIP coaching forums inside coaching and detailing plays and strategic hockey maneuvers in an attempt to make our members better, more fundamentally sound players. If you are looking for it, we cover it as a team! Follow me, follow us, interact with me, interact with us, we welcome it all.
NHL DFS At A Glance
These are all of stats/rates that I like to look at for teams. I feel as it helps give you an idea of which team is shooting the puck (which will result in goals) and who is giving up the most shots (which will result in goals) and more, let’s break those down.
ODDS: The % chance that the team will win the game. Teams with the highest % to win goalies tend to be chalk and good cash plays.
O/U: The predicted combined score of the teams playing in said matchup. 6.5 will be the highest that you will see and 5.5 will be the lowest.
ITT: Implied Team Total; looking at this can help you tell what the chalk will be, the team with the highest ITT on the slate will be the chalkiest and the lowest will be the lowest owned. In GPPs it can be good to just cut out the top team or two in ITT and build from that.
GF/60: The amount of goals a team has scored per 60 minutes of time on ice.
GA/60: The amount of goals a team has allowed per 60 minutes of time on ice.
xGF/60: Expected Goals For per 60 minutes of time on ice. Example being, a shot in really close from the slot might have a .35 xG (expected goal) value or higher, meaning, that the higher a teams xGF/60 is, the more high quality chances that team is creating. Nothing can be worth 1.0 xG.
xGA/60: Expected Goals Against per 60 minutes of time on ice. Example being, a team allowed a rebound right outside the crease, that shot is likely to have a .3 xG value or higher, meaning, if a team is allowing rebounds, high danger chances or basically anything that can be a predictor for future goals allowed, you can use xGA/60 to see that.
SF/60: Shots For per 60 minutes of ice time. You can use this to see what goalies are potentially going to see a lot of shots (meaning they have a higher ceiling) or what defensemen are going to see a lot of Blocked Shots opportunity.
SA/60: Shots Against per 60 minutes of ice time. You can use this to see what teams have been bleeding shots so you can target skaters going against them, also teams with a higher SA/60 goalies tend to have higher ceilings and they also tend to be cheap because they are normally projected to lose.
PP%: Power Play Goals divided by Power Play Attempts. Teams with higher PP% tend to score more goals.
PK%: Measures the rate in which a team prevents their opponents from scoring on the Power Play. Teams with a higher PK% tend to allow less goals.
vMatchup: Averaging up GA/60, xGA/60 and SA/60 and giving it a value. Target teams in the RED as they are giving up the most goals and shots.
vOffense: Averaging up GF/60, xGF/60 and SF/60 and giving it a value. Look at teams with the higher ratings as they are scoring more goals and have players who are shooting the puck.
If you have questions regarding these numbers or this chart, don’t hesitate to ask me on our coaching forums. Just tag me (@LowOwnedWR) and let’s get on the same page.
Quick Read: NHL Cash Game Basics – Get The Fundamentals First
(All stats below from last ten games)
Pittsburgh Penguins @ Tampa Bay Lightning
Pittsburgh Penguins: There is some decent value here tonight but with 11 other games on the slate I am not in a rush to throw the Penguins in my line up facing the best team in hockey.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Justin Schultz
Cash viable – Justin Schultz
GPP Sleeper – none
Tampa Bay Lightning: Tampa in implied 3.7 despite Pittsburgh’s defensive prowess over the last month of the season if not more. I am hoping they can gain some ownership and this game ends up 2-1.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Detroit Red Wings @ Buffalo Sabres
Detroit Red Wings: Buffalo has been better on D over the last 10 games and with other good spots I am not looking to run it back with Detroit tonight.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Buffalo Sabres: Fade Jack Eichel at your own risk tonight, him and MacKinnon seem to be the most likely studs to score a goal tonight and I am locking them both into my lineup.
5 star plays – Jack Eichel
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – Jack Eichel
GPP Sleeper – Jeff Skinner
Anaheim Ducks @ Montreal Canadiens
Anaheim Ducks: I have stayed strong in my believe that Anaheim is the 2nd worst team in the league, better than only the Red Wings. Nothing here I am looking to touch tonight.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Montreal Canadiens: Joel Armia is only $4700 on DK tonight which is tremendous value and Kovalchuk has remained hot since arriving in Montreal, I like those two as value pieces from this game.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Joel Armia
Cash viable – Joel Armia
GPP Sleeper – Ilya Kovalchuk
Vegas Golden Knights @ Florida Panthers
Vegas Golden Knights: Max Pacioretty should be over 8k on FD and 7.5k on DK and he is neither, I am once again locking him into my line up tonight. Mark Stone is still a good value but I am not set on this being a stack as Stone offensive involvement seems to be limited.
5 star plays – Max Pacioretty
4 star plays – Mark Stone
Cash viable – Max Pacioretty
GPP Sleeper – Max Pacioretty
Florida Panthers: With Barkov still sidelined I am not looking to touch this team.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Los Angeles Kings @ New York Islanders
Los Angeles Kings: This looks to be one of the slowest games on the slate, plenty of good spots tonight, I am not looking to dip into this one.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
New York Islanders: Brock Nelson remains good value on DK but outside of that this game is a fade.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Brock Nelson
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – Brock Nelson
New Jersey Devils @ Philadelphia Flyers
New Jersey Devils: Imagine rostering the Devils on a 12 game slate, could not be me.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Philadelphia Flyers: Philly is priced to the max for this matchup, the only one I am looking at is PP1 Kevin Hayes.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Kevin Hayes
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – Travis Konecny
Colorado Avalanche @ Ottawa Senators
Colorado Avalanche: Another slate, another time we are keeping our exposure limited to Kadri and MacKinnon, you cannot fade Nate tonight and Kadri remains a great value in a great matchup.
5 star plays – Nathan MacKinnon
4 star plays – Nazem Kadri
Cash viable – Nathan MacKinnon, Nazem Kadri
GPP Sleeper – none
Ottawa Senators: Ottawa is a fade tonight.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Winnipeg Jets @ St. Louis Blues
Winnipeg Jets: Jets on the road against the Blues is a no go.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
St. Louis Blues: Schenn and O’Reilly offer good upside tonight in a good matchup along with decent value, in GPPs I like them for a mini stack and for cash I like a one off of either but I am leaning Schenn.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Brayden Schenn, Ryan O’Reilly
Cash viable – Brayden Schenn
GPP Sleeper – Ryan O’Reilly
Vancouver Canucks @ Minnesota Wild
Vancouver Canucks: There really is not anything special for the Canucks right now, not looking their way tonight.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Minnesota Wild: Matt Dumba remains priced way too low on FD, outside of that nothing here to see.
5 star plays – Matt Dumba (FD)
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Nashville Predators @ Calgary Flames
Nashville Predators: Hynes is an awful coach and I do not know if he will even make it out of next offseason, I hate that I have to blacklist this team unless it is the best spot on the slate, which it is not tonight.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Calgary Flames: Rasmus Andersson looks to get the boost to PP1 making him a great value tonight.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Rasmus Andersson
Cash viable – Rasmus Andersson
GPP Sleeper – Matthew Tkachuk
Carolina Hurricanes @ Arizona Coyotes
Carolina Hurricanes: Lowest total game on the slate, I am not looking to touch either sides.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Arizona Coyotes: Fade.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
San Jose Sharks @ Edmonton Oilers
San Jose Sharks: This team is a garbage fire right now and we do not roster dumpster fires.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Edmonton Oilers: As per usual, limit the exposure to Leon and Connor.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl
Cash viable – Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl
GPP Sleeper – none
Goalies:
Marc Andre Fleury (DK): With Barkov remaining sidelined and Flower only being $7400 it seems like a match made in heaven.
Jonas Johansson (FD): $7200 at home against the Red Wings, do not over think it.