Welcome to the DFS Army NHL Game Break! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process. I am @LowOwnedWR and you can find me out on Twitter. But you’ll really find me in our VIP coaching forums inside coaching and detailing plays and strategic hockey maneuvers in an attempt to make our members better, more fundamentally sound players. If you are looking for it, we cover it as a team! Follow me, follow us, interact with me, interact with us, we welcome it all.
NHL DFS At A Glance
These are all of stats/rates that I like to look at for teams. I feel as it helps give you an idea of which team is shooting the puck (which will result in goals) and who is giving up the most shots (which will result in goals) and more, let’s break those down.
ODDS: The % chance that the team will win the game. Teams with the highest % to win goalies tend to be chalk and good cash plays.
O/U: The predicted combined score of the teams playing in said matchup. 6.5 will be the highest that you will see and 5.5 will be the lowest.
ITT: Implied Team Total; looking at this can help you tell what the chalk will be, the team with the highest ITT on the slate will be the chalkiest and the lowest will be the lowest owned. In GPPs it can be good to just cut out the top team or two in ITT and build from that.
GF/60: The amount of goals a team has scored per 60 minutes of time on ice.
GA/60: The amount of goals a team has allowed per 60 minutes of time on ice.
xGF/60: Expected Goals For per 60 minutes of time on ice. Example being, a shot in really close from the slot might have a .35 xG (expected goal) value or higher, meaning, that the higher a teams xGF/60 is, the more high quality chances that team is creating. Nothing can be worth 1.0 xG.
xGA/60: Expected Goals Against per 60 minutes of time on ice. Example being, a team allowed a rebound right outside the crease, that shot is likely to have a .3 xG value or higher, meaning, if a team is allowing rebounds, high danger chances or basically anything that can be a predictor for future goals allowed, you can use xGA/60 to see that.
SF/60: Shots For per 60 minutes of ice time. You can use this to see what goalies are potentially going to see a lot of shots (meaning they have a higher ceiling) or what defensemen are going to see a lot of Blocked Shots opportunity.
SA/60: Shots Against per 60 minutes of ice time. You can use this to see what teams have been bleeding shots so you can target skaters going against them, also teams with a higher SA/60 goalies tend to have higher ceilings and they also tend to be cheap because they are normally projected to lose.
PP%: Power Play Goals divided by Power Play Attempts. Teams with higher PP% tend to score more goals.
PK%: Measures the rate in which a team prevents their opponents from scoring on the Power Play. Teams with a higher PK% tend to allow less goals.
vMatchup: Averaging up GA/60, xGA/60 and SA/60 and giving it a value. Target teams in the RED as they are giving up the most goals and shots.
vOffense: Averaging up GF/60, xGF/60 and SF/60 and giving it a value. Look at teams with the higher ratings as they are scoring more goals and have players who are shooting the puck.
If you have questions regarding these numbers or this chart, don’t hesitate to ask me on our coaching forums. Just tag me (@LowOwnedWR) and let’s get on the same page.
Quick Read: NHL Cash Game Basics – Get The Fundamentals First
(All stats below from last ten games)
Dallas Stars @ New York Islanders
Dallas Stars: Lowest total game on the slate I am in no rush to jam either of these teams in.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
New York Islanders: Brock Nelson is interesting on DK and Scott Mayfield is great value on both sites but nothing outside of those two.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Brock Nelson
Cash viable – Scott Mayfield
GPP Sleeper – Brock Nelson
Colorado Avalanche @ Buffalo Sabres
Colorado Avalanche: Kadri and MacKinnon PP stack for the exposure here tonight, I like Kadri’s price and I would like to be pretty much locked in to a PP point.
5 star plays – Nathan MacKinnon
4 star plays – Nazem Kadri
Cash viable – Nathan MacKinnon, Nazem Kadri
GPP Sleeper – none
Buffalo Sabres: Nothing here I am looking to roster tonight.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – Jack Eichel
Florida Panthers @ Columbus Blue Jackets
Florida Panthers: With Barkov out this is not a team I am looking to put in my line ups.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Columbus Blue Jackets: Boone Jenner is in play at his price and being on PP1, Columbus should win this game tonight.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Boone Jenner
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – Boone Jenner
Vancouver Canucks @ Boston Bruins
Vancouver Canucks: Vancouver has been very shaky on D so I like their D men tonight for their blocked shots upside. Those players being; Tyler Myers and Oscar Fantenberg, they both offer good value on both sites tonight.
5 star plays – Tyler Myers
4 star plays – Oscar Fantenberg
Cash viable – Tyler Myers, Oscar Fantenberg
GPP Sleeper – Brock Boeser
Boston Bruins: Boston 1 has been falling in price and this is a good match up so this could be the spot that sends their price back up. Pastrnak has stayed about the same but Bergeron and Marchand have fallen the last month, I like both of their values and upside tonight.
5 star plays – Brad Marchand
4 star plays – Patrice Bergeron, Jake DeBrusk (DK)
Cash viable – Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron, Jake DeBrusk (DK)
GPP Sleeper – Brad Marchand
Vegas Golden Knights @ Tampa Bay Lightning
Vegas Golden Knights: Pacioretty and Stone’s price just remains way too low on DK for their upside and I am going to keep locking them in cash until that changes.
5 star plays – Max Pacioretty, Mark Stone
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – Max Pacioretty, Mark Stone
GPP Sleeper – none
Tampa Bay Lightning: Finally off of their west coast road trip, but I am not looking at these boys tonight outside of Ryan McDonagh as his price remains just way too low.
5 star plays – Ryan McDonagh
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – Ryan McDonagh
GPP Sleeper – Nikita Kucherov
Montreal Canadiens @ New Jersey Devils
Montreal Canadiens: I know rostering teams against the Devils is always a great move but the value just is not there tonight for Montreal.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
New Jersey Devils: Nothing here for me except a Miles Wood value play as at times he does rise up.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – Miles Wood
GPP Sleeper – Miles Wood
Los Angeles Kings @ Washington Capitals
Los Angeles Kings: Better value elsewhere not going to be rostering the Kings tonight.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Washington Capitals: Ovechkin’s value is not there anymore but it does not look to matter as this man is on fire. Both sites also refuse to price up Jakub Vrana who has a point or more in 10 of his last 11 games.
5 star plays – Alex Ovechkin
4 star plays – Jakub Vrana, TJ Oshie (DK)
Cash viable – Alex Ovechkin, Jakub Vrana, TJ Oshie (DK)
GPP Sleeper – none
Anaheim Ducks @ Ottawa Senators
Anaheim Ducks: Two of the worst teams in the league I am not looking to touch anything here, I expect a slow game.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Ottawa Senators: Fade.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Carolina Hurricanes @ St. Louis Blues
Carolina Hurricanes: Another game where there are no pieces I am looking at.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
St. Louis Blues: Fade.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Chicago Blackhawks @ Minnesota Wild
Chicago Blackhawks: Chicago is only a couple points out of a WC spot and their goalies are amazing, I like other teams more tonight so nothing from them tonight, but we will reach back into this hole soon enough.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Minnesota Wild: Corey Crawford has been stellar this year and the Wild are by no means an offensive juggernaut. Matt Dumba remains an amazing value on FD.
5 star plays – Matt Dumba (FD)
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – Matt Dumba (FD)
GPP Sleeper – none
Nashville Predators @ Winnipeg Jets
Nashville Predators: Arvidsson is a decent value on both sites but this team has burnt me too much lately so I am by no means wanting to roster them
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Viktor Arvidsson
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – Viktor Arvidsson
Winnipeg Jets: Blake Wheeler is good value on both sites and Nashville’s goaltending has been shaky all year at best.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Blake Wheeler
Cash viable – Blake Wheeler
GPP Sleeper – Blake Wheeler
San Jose Sharks @ Calgary Flames
San Jose Sharks: This team is a dumpster fire right now do not roster these players.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Calgary Flames: Lindholm and Monahan (DK) offer great value tonight and the Flames are implied 3.5 goals. I am locking Lindholm into my cash line up.
5 star plays – Elias Lindholm
4 star plays – Sean Monahan
Cash viable – Elias Lindholm, Sean Monahan (DK)
GPP Sleeper – none
Edmonton Oilers @ Arizona Coyotes
Edmonton Oilers: Just one of those games that should be slow and it is -EV to roster from it, McDavid and Draisaitl in GPPs only.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – Connor McDavid
Arizona Coyotes: Fade
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Goalies:
Corey Crawford (FD)/(DK): Corey Crawford has been one of the best goalies in the league this year and Minnesota is just not a team that should scare you off a goalie. The value and upside Crawford offers on both sites at that price is impossible for me not to lock in.