BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC on ESPN+ 27 Location – Norfolk, Virginia
This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in Virginia. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $120,000 being paid out. I will probably stick to the top GPPs this week and mainly chase that $25k. I will probably throw a handful of lineups, 10-20, in that contest and then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE and 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week and playing 50/50s and double ups.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights and hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Ismail Naurdiev $8,600 vs Sean Brady $7,600
Ismail Naurdiev
Age: 23
Height: 5’10
Weight: 170
Reach: 74”
Gym: Sanford MMA
From: Austria
UFC Record: 2-1
Fight Matrix: 41
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -125
Ismail Naurdiev bounced back from his first UFC loss with a resounding victory over Siyar Bahadurzada. Naurdiev dominated every second of the fight & even earned a 30-24 score card. Naurdiev has a lot of raw ability & at 23 years old a ton of potential. Now training at Sanford MMA, which is the new name for Hard Knocks 365, Naurdiev definitely has the coaches & training partners to make it to the next level. Ismail is light on his feet with a long stance & solid movement. He has a nice jab & good inside leg kicks. He has a very good lead leg & will throw nice front kicks & sidekicks to the head & body. He will throw a one-two to a round kick to the body. He closes the distance with extremely fast, straight punch combinations. He has very nice rear uppercuts. He is very accurate & if he can get opponents backed near the cage, he has finishing ability. He has nasty spinning back kicks & spinning back elbows. He has nasty jump knees to the head. He is hittable and loads up on a lot of shots. He is much better when opponents give him space. When fighters make him go backwards, he isn’t as dangerous. His boxing defense is not good, especially against left hooks. Naurdiev has to control distance, use more kicks & feints to force Brady to open up. He has to respect the power & use his kicks and distance control. He has 11 KO/TKO’s in his career & never been finished with strikes.
Naurdiev is a very good grappler. His takedown defense cost him the fight vs Chance Rencountre, but it looked amazing vs Prazeres. At 24 years old this guy is improving rapidly. He has an excellent whizzer & underhooks to defend takedowns. He has amazing balance when opponents go for singles, he can jump on one leg & defend takedowns a la BJ Penn. Naurdiev was able to explode & sweep a credentialed black belt in Michel Prazeres. Not only was he able to sweep him multiple times, but he was efficient on top. He landed big ground & pound & even took dominant positions like mount & the back. He won the grappling with Prazeres which was highly impressive. He has strong double legs & will pick opponents up & slam them. On top, he has pretty nasty ground & pound and is very accurate. He will take the back, flatten opponents out and finish with punches. In his last match vs Chance Rencountre, he got his kicks caught & was taken down because of it. Brady is very good at catching kicks, so he needs to have learned from that. Naurdiev couldn’t get-up off his back & he allowed Rencountre to transition & get to dominant positions. He did tire vs Siyar Bahadurzada and used takedowns to rest and get him a win. He was able to take & control Siyar on the mat. Naurdiev has 5 submissions & has been submitted one time.
Sean Brady
Age: 27
Height: 5’10
Weight: 170
Reach: 72.5”
Gym: Renzo Gracie Philly
From: Philadelphia
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 84
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W11
Betting Odds: +105
Sean Brady entered the UFC an undefeated prospect with a lot of hype. Brady didn’t get an easy opponent in his UFC debut. He defeated an aging but tough veteran in Court McGee in a hard-fought fight. It was pretty close, but Bradly clearly edged the fight. Sean Brady is a technical striker. He likes to walk opponents down, cut them off, & uses feints to get inside well. He will switch stances to cut opponents off. He has solid head & body movement. Brady has nice low kicks. He will use his jab & left hook, along with some one-twos & overhands to back opponents up. Brady will attack with some round kicks to the legs, body & head, but doesn’t put a lot of power on them. Brady pushes fighters back & gets inside well. He showed an excellent left hook counter in his last match that dropped McGee hard. Sean Brady has 3 KO/TKO’s. He has power, but he chooses to not throw full power most of the time. He is undefeated at 11-0 and showed good durability overall.
Sean Brady is a strong grappler. Brady is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu under Daniel Gracie. Sean Brady will look to mix it up & primarily grapples in fights. Brady has pretty good singles & doubles, but really excels at getting takedowns in the clinch. He will use his striking to back opponents up, and when he can get into body locks against the cage, he dumps opponents easily. Brady likes to move to half guard, get the cross body and look for kimuras & straight armbars. He will trap the wrist and land punches to the body and head. Brady was able to posture up & finish his last match with ground & pound in round 4. Brady will also trap the wrist & use ground & pound to force opponents to give their back where he has good control. He only has one career rear naked choke. Brady isn’t a big finisher. He cares more about control & position, and if the finish comes he will take it. Brady has 2 submissions. Brady has great cardio, and usually breaks opponents as fights go on. He did tire a bit in his last match, but McGee does that to everyone. I’m sure he will look better in his second outing.
This is a great curtain jerker fight and both guys have a lot of potential. Naurdiev is going to try and keep this fight at range using his reach and karate style. Brady is going to try and close the distance and use his boxing or takedowns. I think both guys will have their moments, but I see this going all 15-minutes and I think it is closer to a 50/50 fight. At this line, it is dog or pass for me and I will take Brady because I think he has more ways to win this fight.
On DraftKings, Brady is my preferred play and one of my favorite underdogs to target this week. I like his price tag at $7.6k and I think if he wins he will get more than 10x with upside of close to 100. He did have 109.5 in a decision win for his UFC debut, so I like that output from him and I could see him having some success with takedowns here. Naurdiev is in play as well at $8.6k but he won’t be a guy I target heavily at all. I will just be mixing in the $8k favorites and he is a guy that could make a couple lineups if I can afford him. I do want to be overweight to Brady though and I think he is a fine cash game play as well.
Winner – Sean Brady via Split Decision
Aalon Cruz $8,900 vs Spike Carlyle $7,900
Aalon Cruz
Age: 30
Height: 6’0
Weight: 145
Reach: 78”
Gym: DEFWAR
From: Florida
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 182
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: -185
Aalon Cruz is entering his UFC debut with a lot of momentum. He arguably had the best KO in the history of the DWCS in his last match. Cruz landed a beautiful flying knee knockout late in round three of a fight he might have been losing. At 6’0 with a 78” reach, Cruz is a huge FW and an interesting addition to the UFC. He was originally slated to face UFC veteran Steven Peterson, but with Peterson being forced out with an injury, he will now be taking on another fighter making their UFC debut. Aalon Cruz is going to be the better, more technical striker. He will switch stances and has good footwork. Cruz has a very long reach. He isn’t the best puncher, but he has a good one-two. He has a good check hook & overhand right. Cruz doesn’t have the best defense in boxing range or when he gets backed up. Cruz has excellent kicks. He has very nice low kicks. He will throw the occasional front leg sidekick. Cruz will throw round & front kicks to the body and head as well. He will throw nice question mark kicks to the head. Cruz will throw spinning and jumping kicks/knees. He had a nasty flying knee to the head in his last match. Cruz showed the ability to fight moving backwards his last fight & fought for all three rounds. Cruz has two KO/TKO’s. He has never been finished by strikes.
Aalon Cruz will look to mix it up & grapple, but in this one I imagine he will keep it on the feet. Cruz is solid in the clinch. He will dig double underhooks, circle to the back or get trips. Cruz can shoot some bad takedowns when he’s pressured. He was shooting un-setup double legs in his last match. Cruz can be taken down, but he has good get-ups. He will give his back to stand up & has gotten rear naked choked twice. Cruz has two submissions himself. Cruz is a dog & has good cardio. Cruz seems very average to me overall, but he has a fairly easy matchup here.
Spike Carlyle
Age: 26
Height: 5’7
Weight: 145
Reach: N/A
Gym: Treigning Lab
From: California
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 185
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: +160
Spike Carlyle answered the short notice call & will be headed to Norfolk February 29th to get in a fist fight. Carlyle is normally a LW fighter but decided to make the drop here. Carlyle only has two fights at FW in his career with a record of 1-1. His one career FW loss is also very alarming. It was a split decision, but the opponent he faced had a pro record of 8-11. Carlyle only has 9 pro fights, but that’s a bit deceiving. He has a lot of MMA experience. Carlyle had his first amateur fight in 2011 and has an amateur MMA record of 9-5. Carlyle is extremely aggressive & dangerous early. 5 of Carlyle’s 8 wins have come in round one. There isn’t a ton of recent footage of Carlyle, but from what I’ve seen I’m not very impressed. He comes out fast, crashing with punches & throwing a lot of kicks. Spike will hold his hands low, but he throws nice round & front kicks to the body and head. He will crash forward with the left hook & has a nice, straight-right hand. Spike landed a nasty spinning backfist in a recent fight that knocked his opponent out. His defense is not good though & he isn’t a UFC level striker. His hands are completely down & his wildness will cost him at the higher level. He is dangerous himself with 4 first round knockouts. Carlyle has two KO’s in under one minute.
Spike is an opportunist grappler but doesn’t look great in that area. His takedown defense looks questionable. He relies on attacking with guillotines to counter takedown attempts. He will pull guard with the guillotine & has faith in his Jiu-Jitsu. Spike will attack triangles & armbars off his back. He can give up his back & mount in scrambles & makes mistakes himself. I have seen him lose due to getting taken down on the regional scene. Carlyle will go for takedowns himself but isn’t a high-level wrestler. He will shoot decent double legs. He likes to attack singles to get the fight to the fence & chain wrestle. Spike will hit nice throws in the clinch. When Spike gets on top, he likes to take the back & get rear naked chokes. Spike has some ground & pound finishes from mount as well. In a recent LFA fight, he was able to get some early takedowns, but couldn’t control position. He kept a heavy dose of takedowns up in that fight during the first round but was almost desperate. He didn’t set the takedowns up well & a better opponent would have made him pay.
I think Cruz should be the better fighter everywhere here except wrestling. I think Cruz is the better grappler/submission artist though, and on the feet, I think he should be much better, especially with his kicks. Carlyle is going to need to push forward the entire time, land takedowns and use his top control time to get the victory. Aside from that, I am not impressed, and this should be Cruz’s fight to lose.
This is going to be Cruz or pass for me. I think Cruz is much better than Carlyle and he could finish this fight on the feet or the ground. I think he looks to stand though and probably spends some time against the cage stuffing takedowns which would take away from his ceiling. We might need a knockout from him to end up on the optimal lineup at his salary because I don’t see him landing a ton of volume and his ITD line is only +235. He is going to be similar to Naurdiev for me where I will just be mixing these $8k fighters into lineups where they fit but I won’t look to be overweight to most of them. Carlyle is in play because of his wrestling potential but I don’t see him making my player pool with 20 or less lineups.
Winner – Aalon Cruz via Unanimous Decision
Jordan Griffin $8,500 vs TJ Brown $7,700
Jordan Griffin
Age: 30
Height: 5’10
Weight: 145
Reach: 74.5”
Gym: Roufusport MMA
From: Wisconsin
UFC Record: 0-2
Fight Matrix: 168
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -130
Jordan Griffin has his back against the wall here, as he has gone 0-2 in his first two UFC starts. Griffin has faced two very tough competitors, but now is facing a UFC newcomer. He needs to win & perform here to have a chance at sticking around the organization. Griffin is a southpaw & a good distance striker. Griffin is a fighter who likes to use a lot of lateral movement on the outside & then explode in with combinations. He has a decent jab & a good straight-left hand. He will throw one-twos. He also has a nice jab, overhand left. He is very aggressive & quick closing the distance. When he can back opponents up against the cage, he will throw wide hooks in combination to close off his opponents exits. In round 3 if he feels the fight is close or opponents are fading, he will put the pressure on & trade. He has nice short hooks & uppercuts that are powerful. He has dangerous kicks. He will throw a one-two to a rear leg to the body or head kick. If opponents can time his blitzes, they can duck under & get easy takedowns. Griffin has good power & 5 career KO/TKO’s. He has a good chin & is a wild man. He has been KO/TKO’d one time.
Griffin is a solid grappler offensively. He has very explosive double leg takedowns. He will get big slams. He has solid body locks. He is super aggressive on the ground. He will jump on rear naked chokes with no hooks in & has an excellent squeeze. He will rain down brutal ground & pound. His reach allows him to stand up over his opponents in their guards & land big punches. His aggressiveness going for chokes can get him in trouble. He will go for flying guillotines & end up on his back. He also can hold onto chokes too long & allow opponents to transition to dominant positions. He gives up mount & the back pretty easily. He is calm in those positions & will move on the bottom to avoid huge damage, and submissions, but loses rounds. His takedown defense is poor & he was taken down multiple times per round by Dan Ige & Chas Skelly. He will never break & fights until the end. Griffin has 8 career submission & has been submitted twice himself. I feel Griffin should strike in this matchup, try to keep it on the feet & move early on. He needs to counter Brown as he tries to get inside to get the feel of his speed & what he wants to do. If he can deny a few takedowns and get Brown tired, then he can pressure forward. He is dangerous with blitzes and he may be able to catch him.
TJ Brown
Age: 29
Height: 5’9
Weight: 145
Reach: 73.5”
Gym: Westside Fight Team
From: Arkansas
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 174
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: +110
TJ Brown has worked his way to the UFC the hard way. Brown doesn’t have a pretty record at 14-6 but has been thriving lately. Not only is Brown 5-1 in his last six MMA fights, he also has won kick boxing titles along the way. Brown seemed to have hit his stride in 2019 and will be looking to bring that into 2020. Brown was 4-0 in MMA in 2019 with four finishes. His last victory on the contender series earned him this UFC contract. The first thing that you notice when you watch TJ Brown is his aggressiveness & explosiveness early in rounds. He can come out hot with both his striking and grappling. He is very fast & likes to switch stances. He has a very good jab he will double even triple up on to get into range. He has heavy one-twos, hooks, & nasty head kicks. He has won via head kick in two of his last four fights. The problem on the feet with Brown is he is super aggressive & will get in wars. He can overextend a bit on his punches in the pocket & lead with the uppercut. He can get countered by clean boxers, such as when he was dropped in round one vs Dylan Lockard. He can get hit & has been knocked out before. He has 4 knockouts himself but has been finished 3 times with strikes.
TJ Brown is a very good grappler. He is extremely strong & manhandles opponents in the cage. Brown has very nice takedowns & a lot of variety with them. He will hit them with traditional wrestling shots, or in the clinch. Brown is excellent in top position. He has great control & slow cooks opponents. He will slowly advance position, and land hard punches & elbows. He is very good at using front head locks to snap opponents back down or control them. He will trap a wrist from side control or the wrestlers ride position & land big shots. Browns go to submission is his arm triangle. He hits it very quickly and has six in his career. He has great back takes and is great at flattening opponents out. He will rain down big ground & pound, and then look to lock in rear naked chokes. Brown is very good in scrambles and when he can get in on the legs he usually will end up on top. Brown can get taken down but will attack off his back with nice kimuras. He was able to work himself back to top position multiple times against college wrestler Dylan Lockard. TJ Brown dominated Lockard in the grappling realm & ultimately submitted him. Brown can get a little sloppy on bottom & give his back to stand up and has been rear naked choked twice. Brown has excellent cardio & will never quit.
Brown is making his UFC debut here and he looks pretty decent. He has good striking and has power in his punches and kicks. He also isn’t bad on the mat when he has top position, and he has a very nice arm-triangle choke that he has won with 6 times. Griffin is a well-rounded fighter himself and he is going to be fighting for his job after going 0-2 in his first 2 UFC fights. This is a tough fight to call and I’d say dog or pass on the betting line, but I think Griffin can win if he stays away from the arm-triangle and doesn’t get caught with a KO punch/kick, so I will take him to win a closely contested fight.
I like both sides of this fight but my preferred play of the two will be Brown. I like that he is $800 cheaper and only a +110 underdog on the betting line. I also think he has finishing upside. Brown will be an underdog I for sure target this week but if he doesn’t get a finish, I don’t know that he will score well in a win and I think if this goes all 3-rounds it will favor Griffin. I do think we could see grappling from both guys in this fight and that is what makes me like Griffin a bit as well. That, plus I don’t love the $8k range, so he will just be another guy I am mixing in. I won’t leave much salary on the table this week, so it will probably just come down to who fits in my lineup and that is how I will decide on which fighters I use in this range. I don’t think Griffin is a must target at all though and if I was making 3 or less lineups, he would be a fade.
Winner – Jordan Griffin via Split Decision
Luis Pena $9,200 vs Steve Garcia Jr. $7,000
Luis Pena
Age: 26
Height: 6’3
Weight: 155
Reach: 78”
Gym: ATT
From: Arkansas
UFC Record: 3-2
Fight Matrix: 168
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds:
Violent Bob Ross will be making his return to the octagon on Saturday night looking for a different result. He had a strong showing in his last match but lost a split decision. Most people believe he won the fight, but officially it is a loss, so he needs to perform here. Pena is a very tall, long, creative striker. He has good fakes & feints and picks his shots well. In this fight it’s imperative. When Pena can work behind his jab and left hook, he’s at his best. He has a very nice one-two and a good lean back, check hook. He will throw nice hook, uppercut and straight, combinations & throws a lot of volume. Pena has nice round kicks to the body and vicious knees. His flying knees are extremely dangerous. He will turn the flying knee into a front kick to the face if he feels his opponent is out of range for the knee. Pena does lean back to avoid punches & can get hit by doing that at times, he is also heavy on his lead leg. Pena has 2 KO/TKO’s.
Luis Pena has shown issues with takedown defense over the years but is really improving his BJJ. His grappling actually looked pretty good to me in his last match. Pena is huge for the weight class & in the clinches he tends to do well. He gets the Muay Thai plum and will control and land knees. He is good at circling to the back when he’s in the clinch & getting slam or trip takedowns. Pena struggles a little bit to defend takedowns when opponents back him towards the cage with punches. He can get fixated on defense & allow easy entries into the legs. Pena in his last two matches has been able to use submissions to create scrambles & attack. He utilized a weird arm triangle, reverse crucifix type position in his last match to sweep & almost submit Matt Frevola. Pena is also good at countering takedown attempts with kimuras and using them to sweep, which he’s done in his last two matches. Sometimes I feel Pena will go for the submission when he can easily deny the takedown attempt. I think that has to do with being inexperienced. In the future, he should just work to keep it standing. Pena will attack off his back though with triangles, guillotines, and is very hard to hold down. He is excellent at sweeping to top position as well. Pena has 4 submissions & good cardio.
Steve Garcia Jr.
Age: 27
Height: 6’0
Weight: 155
Reach: 73”
Gym: JacksonWink MMA
From: New Mexico
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 108(FW)
Last Fought: 1 Month
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds:
Steve Garcia Jr. is jumping in here on very short notice. He is a DWCS & Bellator veteran with a lot of fights, so I imagine he will be ready to go. He has paid his dues in the sport. Steve Garcia is a power striker. He has won his last three matches by TKO. On the feet, I feel this fight could be very interesting. Garcia is a big guy himself at 6’0 with a 73” reach. He will still be significantly shorter with a smaller reach than Pena, but probably is the tallest guy Pena’s fought. Garcia is a very good boxer who puts combinations together well. He has power in his hands & can shut people’s lights out. He has an excellent overhand right & right uppercut. Garcia also has very nasty knees, elbows & kicks. He will throw head kicks, flying knees, and will get crazy in there. Garcia also has excellent footwork, distance control, and is usually accurate. I feel on the feet he is very live to maybe get something done. Garcia has 5 KO/TKO’s. He has also never been finished by strikes.
Steve Garcia’s weakness is his ground game. He has shown very poor wrestling in the past and couldn’t get-up off his back. He was dominated by Joe Warren with grappling earlier in his career. I haven’t really seen much of his grappling in recent fights. He was able to defend some takedowns of Desmond Torres, but he was much bigger than that guy and missed weight for the fight. Garcia fought his last fight at FW, but the majority of his career he competed at 135. He actually fought & weighed 139 just 6 months ago on the contender series. Luis Pena has been working at AKA for years, so he has to be ready to defend some takedowns. Garcia has no submissions. He was submitted one time by Aalon Cruz who is also on this card.
Garcia is taking this fight on less than a weeks’ notice. He missed weight in his last two fights though so who knows how dedicated he is to the sport and how he will fare in his UFC debut. He has decent striking and solid power, but I do think it will be KO or bust for him. I think Pena is better everywhere aside from maybe power, and he will have an even bigger edge on the ground. There is no line for this fight yet, but I expect Pena to open as a fairly big favorite and I do like him to get a clear win as long as he avoids the big KO shots.
Pena is going to be my preferred play here and I think he will have a big edge on the mat and could rack up some nice grappling points in this fight. Garcia has fought at 135 and 145 lbs and is now making the jump to 155 where he should be at a disadvantage everywhere except maybe punching power. I think Pena is the better striker and the much better grappler, so I think he can score well and possibly be the highest scorer on the slate. I do want to target Pena this week, but I don’t know that he will be a core play because I do like Dawson and Spencer more. Garcia is an OK, cheap GPP punt, but I think he will need the KO to get the win here. If he gets it, then he will score well, and we probably need him in our lineups. I will wait to see the ITD line on him, but he might be a fade for me because I don’t see him getting the KO, so I will need that to be a decent line to change my mind. Pena is in play in all formats, but he is my 3rd favorite option in the $9k range. I will have one of him, Dawson, or Spencer in every lineup I build though most likely.
Winner – Luis Pena via 2nd round Submission
Sergey Spivac $8,200 vs Marcin Tybura $8,000
Sergey Spivac
Age: 25
Height: 6’3
Weight: 233
Reach: 78”
Gym: Polar Bear Fight Team
From: Moldova
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 33
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -120
Sergey Spivac enters his third UFC fight a betting favorite. Spivac was knocked out in less than one-minute vs Walt Harris but rebounded with a decision victory over Tai Tuivasa. I feel you maybe have to throw the Harris fight out. He was 254.5 lbs at the weigh ins & took the fight on short notice. In other fights, like his most recent one he is 233 lbs & rarely weighs over 240 lbs. I feel he probably wasn’t in good shape at all for that fight. Spivac looks tall & long on the feet. He will stick a jab out there & has a nice one-two. He has a nice jab, right hook. He has fast hand speed & likes to throw shots to get inside mostly. He will throw nice knees & head kicks. He is very good when he backs opponents against the cage. He does a good job of measuring opponents and staying at his range. He will throw nasty standing elbows. He has great cardio & can throw a huge amount of volume out there without getting tired. He does stand heavy on his lead leg & can be leg kicked. He has small legs & I don’t think he will be able to take many low kicks. He was swept off his feet with a kick vs Tuivasa. He also didn’t deal well with pressure vs Walt Harris or in a fight in 2015. Spivac was doing a lot of covering up & just waiting for his moment and defending on the feet in his last match. I am impressed with his volume for a heavyweight, but he doesn’t hit hard & isn’t the greatest athlete. His striking is to solely close the distance. He was finished for the first time in his career vs Walt Harris. Spivac has 4 KO/TKO’s.
Spivac is a strong grappler. He is nasty in the clinch. He will close the distance with punches, throw an elbow & then land brutal knees to the body & head. He is very good in top position. He has nice body lock & head and arm throw takedowns. When he’s in top position, he will rain down big shots from the guard. He is good at ducking under when his opponent throws a shot & getting strong position in the clinch. In his last match, he was timing Tuivasa’s low kicks & taking him down off of them. He was also able to hit a double leg in round vs Tai. On top, he will stand up in an opponent’s guard & throw down big, straight punches & hammerfists. Spivac likes to attack neck cranks from side control and has nice arm triangles. He can give up submissions with that sloppy neck crank at times though. Spivac will attack with armbars from the mount & is fast in scrambles. He has a nice kimura. I am pretty impressed with him on the mat. Spivac has six submissions. He can struggle to hold opponents down early, but he has great cardio for a HW. He is able to take opponents down multiple times until they get tired & then take them out.
Marcin Tybura
Age: 34
Height: 6’3
Weight: 257
Reach: 78”
Gym: Syndicate MMA.
From: Poland
UFC Record: 4-5
Fight Matrix: 31
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 1-4
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +100
Marcin Tybura is in a bad spot. He has lost four of his last five fights and been finished twice in a row. Tybura was once a touted prospect, but now his stock is so low he’s an underdog to Sergey Spivac. Tybura has changed up some things. He is doing his camp in Las Vegas at the UFCPI and Syndicate MMA. We will see if that will pay off for him. Tybura is light on his feet, uses a lot of straight punches, straight front kicks to the body and then will throw nice, round head kicks. He will switch stances & try to give different looks. He has a decent jab, and a good counter right hook. He will throw almost a leaping straight-left. He will throw a nice uppercut, left hook combo. His head movement isn’t bad, but he tends to hold his hand low. He can get hit clean when he does that and squares up making him even more hittable. Tybura doesn’t control the center well & fighters that pressure him can push him back. He tends to back straight up & doesn’t have good footwork. He will just cover up & move in a straight line making him an easy target to hit. He has been KO/TKO’d four times in his career including in his last fight. He has 7 KO/TKO’s himself.
Tybura is a good grappler. He has strong body lock takedowns and good double legs. He will look to control opponents against the cage as well, but he doesn’t do much from there, and just takes a break. He can be reversed and just have his back stuck against the cage as well. He does have very quick takedown shots, much faster than most heavyweights. He will front a jab or straight & duck under into blast doubles. In his fight with Struve, he got several well-timed doubles. He was able to land some nice, short elbows & hammerfists & controlled position inside Struve’s guard. Tybura has shown good passing skills in the past. he does a great job of getting the mount and taking the back. He doesn’t do a ton of damage from those positions and if I was his coach, I’d drill becoming more dangerous in those situations. If he could learn to do damage before looking to sink in subs, I think he could get way more finishes. He has good cardio and can push all 3 or 5 rounds as shown vs Werdum & Arlovski. Tybura has 6 submissions, but none in the UFC.
Tybura looks like he could be a shot fighter and there is no way I could bet on him after some of the performances we have seen lately. Spivac is coming off a great upset win, but that was the best he has ever looked so he is hard to trust as well. He is 10 years younger though and should improve fight to fight so I am going to side with Spivac and I think he gets a finish.
It’s hard to feel confident in either of these guys but for a HW fight it is nice seeing this as the mid-range fight of the week and both guys have the potential to finish early and break the slate. Spivac is going to be my preferred play because I think he should have the grappling advantage and we should see improvements in his striking game with him being so young. I don’t expect any changes from Tybura though, so we probably need the KO from him to be on the nuts. It is possible, but I will probably be underweight to him if he makes my player pool at all. He has never scored 90 DK points and I don’t think he will be looking for takedowns, so I think we can get away from him unless you think he finishes. Spivac is more interesting though, especially coming off a 130-point win in his last fight. I think he could finish the fight on the feet or the ground, so he is going to be my preferred play of the two and I do want to be sure to get exposure to him. However, I will probably be underweight to this fight as a whole and it is a HW fight that I don’t think we need to force into GPPs and just hope it goes the distance if we don’t roster them. There is no FDGTD line yet or even a Spivac ITD line, but if he is +100 through +175 ITD I will like him a bit more. I don’t feel confident at all in him getting the finish, but I do slightly favor him to win.
Winner – Sergey Spivac via 3rd round Submission
Tom Breese $8,300 vs Brendan Allen $7,900
Tom Breese
Age: 28
Height: 6’3
Weight: 185
Reach: 73.5”
Gym: Ultimate Training Centre
From: England
UFC Record: 4-1
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year 9 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -135
Tom Breese is finally going to try to step back into the octagon. After many trials & tribulations with anxiety and injuries, Breese needs to get more active & consistent. He shows good skills in the cage, but just can’t seem to get out of his own way. Tom Breese is a very tall, long fighter who has been putting a lot of priority on boxing, and fighting long. He has a long stance & likes to pump out his jab and straight-left hand. He will front & fake while walking opponents down to keep them on the back foot. His straight-left hand is very accurate & he controls distance using it well. He has nasty front kicks to the body. He will throw a jab, left hook combination. He will throw a nasty right hook, straight-left hand combination. He will throw an uppercut, right hook combo. He has nice inside, outside leg kicks. He will throw a straight-left hand, jab, body kick combination. He will throw front & round kicks to the head. He will throw superman punches. He has good head movement & lateral footwork. He uses his length well to walk opponents into his shots & pot shot them over three rounds. He has very good hand speed & keeps the volume high. He does stand heavy on his lead leg & it’s there to be leg kicked. Breese has 4 KO/TKO’s & has only lost one career fight via split decision.
Breese is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu and has a good ground game. He isn’t an offensive wrestler, and his wrestling defense is a bit questionable. He can be bullied a bit in the clinch & doesn’t have great technique. He doesn’t dig underhooks & will just try to stall out the position by defending with his length. Nakamura was able to take him down in the clinch multiple times. He did look improved defending clinch takedowns & digging underhooks more against Sean Strickland. Off his back, he is still very good. He will attack with leg locks & is an elite, leg kick guy in MMA. He has very good triangles from full guard & Allen will have to mind his Ps & Qs if he takes top position. He has used it several times to sweep to top position. Once he gets on top, he is very good. He distributes his weight well & his length makes him heavy on top. He will land nice elbows from half guard. He will move to side control & attack with the crucifix and inverted triangles. He has competed in EBI & is a legit black belt. Breese has 6 career submissions. When he shows up in the cage, he’s a very skillful guy, and I hope we see it again Saturday.
Brendan Allen
Age: 24
Height: 6’2
Weight: 185
Reach: 77”
Gym: Roufusport
From: Louisiana
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 46
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: +115
Brendan Allen jumped onto the scene with a big win last time out. He took on an established name in Kevin Holland in his debut and got it done via finish. At 24 years old Allen has a lot of potential. If he can get by Tom Breese, he will be making the quick jump towards the top fifteen. Allen to me is really pretty solid. He has technical striking with power in his hands. He has an excellent jab, good hooks & catches fighters as they’re moving backwards. When he goes forward, he is super aggressive. He will crash with hard punches & closes the distance with big knees to the body. Allen’s striking defense is terrible. He is very hittable & not the fastest guy. Allen has power & 4 KO/TKO’s to go with it. Allen has a good chin never being finished by strikes. He is willing to walk through punches & take one to give one.
Brendan Allen should be looking to get this fight do the mat He has strong takedowns. Allen gets deep on body locks & takedowns against the fence. He has good double legs as well. In top position, he has decent top control & is aggressive looking for the back. He will work in side control looking for kimuras & armbars. Allen is good at winning scrambles. In his last match, he was able to tire out Holland with wrestling & grappling, took his back & choked him out. Allen has 8 career submissions. He has dog in him & a lot of heart and determination.
Breese is the much better boxer here and I think has the better striking all around. Allen is a relentless grappler though and I would give him the edge on the ground. I think he will be looking for takedowns early and often as well and I see him winning the earlier portion of the fight that way and he could possibly get a sub as well. I think the longer this fight goes the more it will favor Breese though, and I do think he will win most striking exchanges. I think the grappling from Allen makes this a dog or pass fight though and I will take him to win a close decision.
FDGTD is -155 and with these guys being in the mid-range of salaries, I think that makes this an important fight to target. Breese has the better ITD line at +172 and I think if he can keep this fight on the feet, he will pay off his price tag and could get the KO as well and score 100+. I don’t see him looking to grapple though and I expect Allen will early and often. That makes Allen my preferred play because I think he could get multiple takedowns, possibly in each round, and he is live for a submission win. I think if he wins, he has a decent chance of being on the optimal lineup and he is a top 3 underdog for me this week. If I am making 10 lineups, I would think Allen makes 3-4 and Breese 1-2 max. Both guys have 100+ potential though and if they get it at their price tags we are going to need the winner in our lineup to win the $25k.
Winner – Brendan Allen via Split Decision
Gabriel Silva $8,400 vs Kyler Philips $7,800
Gabriel Silva
Age: 25
Height: 5’4
Weight: 135
Reach: 71”
Gym: Team Nogueira
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 136
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -125
Gabriel Silva will be looking to bounce back following a decision loss to Ray Borg. It was his UFC debut & first loss of his career. Silva has a very odd build. He is short & compact but has a very long reach. At 5’4 he has a 71” reach. He will switch stances well & pressures forward. He is pretty explosive. He will usually start southpaw where he has a nice jab & a nasty, straight-left hand. He will throw one-two, left hook combos & likes to rip the body. He has a very nice overhand left. He will use the overhand left to crash into hook combinations. When he moves to orthodox, he will wing powerful, lead left hooks. He is good at slipping & ducking punches in close range & packs power in close distance. He does look to have fast hands in close range. He can get hit coming inside & doesn’t have great defense. He doesn’t have the longest reach & doesn’t throw kicks, so he has to get inside to be successful. A lot of the fights I was watching he was fighting at 145 lbs, so I imagine he will be much better sized for 135. Silva has 3 KO/TKO’s & has never been finished by strikes.
Silva does look to mix it up. He will use his blitz attacks & power punches to fall into takedown attempts. He has a nice single leg takedown. He is powerful even at 145 lbs & when he got his hands connected on doubles, he landed good slams. On top, Silva isn’t the greatest. He doesn’t have good top control & can be put in submissions. I have seen more than one opponent sweep him with leg locks. Silva doesn’t pass well & when he tries to he can be deliberate. Fighters are able to deny the passes or create scrambles to stand up. He did hit a couple very good switches & took the back of Ray Borg. He showed good back control. Silva didn’t really attack the rear naked & isn’t a big submission threat. He has only one submission in his career.
Kyler Phillips
Age: 24
Height: 5’8
Weight: 135
Reach: 70.5”
Gym: MMA Lab
From: Arizona
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 181
Last Fought: 1 Year
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +105
Kyler Phillips is making his long-awaited UFC debut. He was set to debut in March of last year but was forced out of the fight due to injury. Phillips did have a fight on the DWCS where he earned the victory. He had a loss on TUF, and now will be getting an opportunity in the UFC. Phillips is a very dangerous guy early in round one. He is very fast, technical & explosive. He can finish the fight on the feet or on the ground and has all his finishes in round one. As the fight goes on Phillips slows down & isn’t nearly as dangerous. Early in round one, he is light on his feet with great movement. Phillips has a nice lead hand, very fast & sharp. He will throw some decent one-twos & if forced to brawl can let go with hooks & uppercuts. On the contender series he landed a nasty, tight left hook that hurt his opponent & finished him with shots on the mat. The best part of his stand-up game is kicking. He has very nice low kicks. He will throw round kicks to the body and head. He will throw very nice spinning kicks & question mark kicks. In his last match, he landed a spinning back kick to the body to question mark kick to the head that knocked his opponent clean out. Phillips has 3 KO/TKO’s.
Kyler Phillips is well-rounded & a solid grappler. He is good at getting to the clinch & working takedowns along with taking the back. He is always looking to take the back in grappling situations. Phillips doesn’t seem the best at sticking the submission when he’s in the back-mount position though. Phillips isn’t bad at chain wrestling against the cage. He will take mount also & land nice shots. In his match with Victor Henry, he won the grappling exchanges early, but gassed out and was beaten by being stuck on bottom. Phillips isn’t the greatest when dealing with forward pressure & his cardio isn’t very good. He can get sloppy in grappling exchanges as the fight goes on. Phillips has a lot of potential & is a finisher. He only has one calf slicer submission in his career. Both of his losses have come via split decision. Phillips is still young & a good prospect.
I would say Silva is the better grappler and Philips is the better striker. I think Philips has more power as well and could have success with ground and pound if he gets top position. Silva is decent on the feet too and might have better hands, but Philips is the bigger guy and has great kicks which is why I give him the edge. I do think this fight will mainly take place on the feet though and I think I would slightly favor Philips here, so I will take him to get the win.
Philips is my preferred play here, mainly because of his KO potential. I like the mid-range on the salaries, but I don’t see either guy dominating and putting up near 100-points unless they can get a finish, so I would rather target the dog who I think has the better chance at that finish. FGTD is -170 though so Vegas thinks this goes 3-rounds and Philips as the underdog has a +340 ITD line compared to +350 from Silva. I think Philips is one of the more live underdogs on the card, so I don’t think we have to get a finish from him, but I think other underdogs have higher and more likely ceilings. I will have some Philips lineups this week, but I could see Silva being a fade for me.
Winner – Kyler Philips via Unanimous Decision
Grant Dawson $9,300 vs Darrick Minner $6,900
Grant Dawson
Age: 26
Height: 5’10
Weight: 145
Reach: 72”
Gym: Glory MMA & Fitness
From: Missouri
UFC Record: 2-0
Fight Matrix: 49
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W14
Betting Odds: -470
Grant Dawson finally is getting back in the octagon after a couple mishaps. He just can’t seem to put this USADA issue behind him and was not granted a license to fight Chas Skelly in Nevada. Dawson has been allowed to fight here in Virginia and will be taking on UFC debutant Darrick Minner. He was originally supposed to rematch Skelly, but unfortunately this time Skelly was forced out due to injury. Dawson likes to keep heavy pressure on opponents, and he usually opens up throwing a lot of kicks. He will throw front & round kicks to the body. He has a decent jab. He has good, long right hooks. He will throw side hooks in combination, while mixing in uppercuts. He is good at slipping a punch & landing left or right hook or overhand. He will also attack the body off slips. He will throw nice high kicks. When he is the faster fighter, he will dominate opponents, because he can slip and counter with strikes or get a double leg. He is quick & cuts fighters off well, but he holds his hands super low & his chin is straight up in the air. He is super open to being hit & has been TKO’d before. When he doesn’t have a speed advantage or has an opponent who can throw tight, straight shots down the middle, he struggles. He will walk through shots with reckless abandon & has shown a good chin, but it’s a risky style. The forward pressure does wear opponents down though and he’s able to drown them once he gets them on the ground. He has 3 KO/TKO’s all due to G&P. In his one loss, he was finished with elbows to the head when he was in on a double leg against the cage. Dawson just needs to use his striking to close the distance in this match. I feel if he does catch Minner clean he could hurt him, but on the ground he has less of chance of getting hurt.
Dawson is a grinder & still developing as a striker. He is aggressive & doesn’t mind being hit which goes a long way in improving your striking as a grappler. He is only 25 years old & I expect improvements. He also was returning from a long layoff in his last match and should have knocked some rust off. Dawson is a very good grappler, and a much better grappler than striker in my opinion. He has great timing on his double legs & sets them up with his strikes very well. When he gets on top, he goes to work immediately & rains down big ground & pound. He does a great job of posturing & landing big, straight punches & hammerfists. He does a great job of wearing his opponents down, passing and taking dominant positions. He will mount & throw big ground & pound until opponents give their back. He has good rear naked chokes & back control. He will flatten opponents out & soften them up with shots before sinking in the chokes. He is a bit of a rear naked choke specialist. He has 5 career RNC’s. He will attack with darces & anacondas. He has great cardio & once he gets one takedown, he usually severely diminishes his opponent. He has 9 career submissions & has never been submitted.
Darrick Minner
Age: 29
Height: 5’7
Weight: 145
Reach: 71”
Gym: Disorderly Conduct
From: Nebraska
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 129
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +375
Darrick Minner is getting the short notice call after making a good impression on the DWCS. Minner took it to Herbert Burns & had him in some bad situations before getting submitted himself. He has followed that up with two finishes in the regional scene to get the opportunity here. Minner is a guy who comes into the cage with bad intentions & is ready to go. He is a first round finisher & will take fighters out quickly if they aren’t ready to go. Minner’s last three wins have come in under two minutes. Minner has 20 wins via first round finish out of 24, many in the first two minutes. Minner has been finished himself 5 times in round one, so his style can work both ways. Minner is a boxer/wrestler who throws bombs. He isn’t overly technical on the feet but has power and commits 100% to his strikes. Minner will wing a clubbing overhand that definitely has power. I have seen him drop opponents with it. Minner will close the distance with wild hooks and uppercuts, but really uses that to get in on the legs. Minner will throw a lot of kicks from the outside; Front kicks up the middle, round kicks to the body and head, and is decent moving in & out. He will sometimes load up with the kicks & can be countered. Minner also will throw lead uppercuts that leave him very exposed. Minner gets really sloppy after round one and his striking just becomes winging hooks. He will run into punches and make the impact worse. When Minner hurts opponents, he isn’t looking for the finish by strikes, he will go into submission mode. Minner has just one career KO. Minner has been finished by strikes twice but is very durable the times he’s been finished were with ground & pound, but he wasn’t out. He will get hurt but recovers quickly. Minner isn’t a great striker, but he commits & it opens up his wrestling.
Darrick Minner is a strong grappler & extremely opportunistic and aggressive. He will sacrifice position for submission every time with no regrets. Minner is good at using big punches to setup the entry for his double leg. He has a very nice single also. When he takes opponents down, he is immediately looking to rain down ground & pound and hunting the neck. Minner is good at taking the back & will lock in rear naked chokes in transition which can catch guys by surprise. Minner will dive on front chokes. His guillotine is very slick & he has a ton of guillotine finishes. Minner can sometimes get himself in trouble while hunting for the sub. He will attack knee bars & get mounted or dive on a guillotine which puts him on bottom. Minner has decent submission defense but can be subbed. He also will stay in bad positions & turtle up which allows fighters to pound him out. Minner gets sloppy inside opponent’s guards & can get submitted with triangles and armbars. Minner can be taken down himself, and his game off his back is not very good. He doesn’t get-up and isn’t a huge submission threat off his back, but he did recently get a triangle choke and will use the guillotine to stand up. Minner has been submitted seven times in his career. His style is boom or bust. He boasts 21 submissions of his own. Minner has grit & heart, but his cardio isn’t the best. He will slow down after round one. Minner is a vet & I don’t think the moment will be too big for him, but it’s a tough assignment for his first time out.
There should be a ton of grappling in this fight, but I do think Dawson is the better fighter everywhere and he fights at a very high pace as well. I think he is going to be too much for Minner here and I think he could finish on the feet or the ground, or even win a clear decision. I don’t see him losing this fight unless it is a flash finish, so he is a fine parlay option IMO.
I love this fight for DK because it should feature a ton of grappling and that is what scores well on DK. Dawson is my favorite play on the slate because of his volume and he has scored 111 and 104 in his two UFC wins. He also has the best ITD line on the slate at -245. He will be a core play for me this week, but I could see this fight in general being in every lineup. If Minner can pull off the upset, I think he would be a lock for the optimal lineup at his price and it would come from a finish or a bunch of grappling. I just don’t see that being the case, so I would probably have something like 7-8 Dawson LUs and 1-2 Minner if I was making 10 total lineups. This is just a great fight for DK purposed and I think we see the winner on the $25k lineup.
Winner – Grant Dawson via 2nd round Submission
Megan Anderson $9,100 vs Norma Dumont $7,100
Megan Anderson
Age: 30
Height: 6’0
Weight: 145
Reach: 72”
Gym: MMA Glory & Fitness
From: Australia
UFC Record: 2-2
Fight Matrix: 6
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -230
Megan Anderson will be looking to win her second fight in a row & third of fourth in the UFC. She got a first round finish of Zarah Fairn via triangle in her last match. Anderson is a big, athletic girl. She is 6’0 tall, but decently athletic & moves well. Anderson is a heavy-handed striker with good forward pressure. She has a good jab & a strong, straight-right hand. Her right hand is very accurate & powerful. She has a nasty overhand left. In close range, she will unload with straight punch & hook combinations, and she has fast hand speed. She will mix in head kicks at the end of her combinations. When she gets fighters backed against the cage that’s when she’s at her best and can really batter fighters. She will use spinning backfists into straight punches. She does a good job of doubling and tripling up with a left or right hook when fighters try to circle their back off the cage. She has nasty step-in knees to the body & head along with great elbows when she gets fighters against the cage. On the feet, she is a dangerous fighter, and will finish opponents when she has them hurt. She will throw a ton of volume and not let up until the fight is over. She has finished her last 4 wins via KO/TKO. She has never been finished by strikes.
Megan Anderson’s kryptonite in her career has obviously been the grappling. In her last match she won via triangle choke submission, which you could tell was big to her. Anderson has showed very bad takedown defense in certain fights. When she got taken down vs Felicia Spencer, she showed terrible defense when Spencer was on her back. Anderson has been submitted one other time by Cindy Dandois as well. In this fight, she probably will have to deal with some takedown attempts from Dumont.
Norma Dumont
Age: 29
Height: 5’7
Weight: 145
Reach: N/A
Gym: Gordlin Fight Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year 6 Months
Last Five: 4-0
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: +190
Norma Dumont will be making her UFC debut as a 4-0 prospect. She hasn’t fought in about a year and half, and I’m not sure why, but she’s finally getting back in there. Dumont is a Brazilian sanda black belt and is normally a 135er. There is not really much to say about Dumont because there is only one fight of her online. The fight was against an 0-3 opponent. In that fight she did look decently quick on her feet & was picking stinging shots. She was landing nice, heavy low kicks & nice body kicks. Dumont will come in with nice one-twos. She has pretty quick hands. I don’t think she has great boxing defense, nor does she look defensively sound fighting while moving backwards.
I haven’t seen very much of Dumont grappling. I have seen her get a couple takedowns in the clinch. She has nice trips & very good throws. In top position, Dumont was able to get to mount, rain down shots and forced her opponent to give her back & finished her. Dumont has two career rear naked choke victories. She looks like a solid athlete & has all around skills. She is still very green with only four fights & none against great competition.
I was pretty impressed in the very limited footage I saw on Norma. She has solid striking and really good kicks. She should also have the grappling advantage in this fight if she is able to land takedowns, which we have seen isn’t the hardest thing to do against Anderson. Anderson is going to be the bigger and longer fighter there though and this is Norma’s UFC debut, so I think I would still favor Anderson on the feet. I do think Norma is a live dog in this fight and it is a dog or pass fight for me, but I will take Anderson to pick up a late finish because there isn’t enough film on Norma to feel confident enough in taking her.
With 20 or less lineups this is going to be a dog or pass fight for me. I don’t see Anderson outscoring the other $9k fighters unless she gets a 1st round finish and she is +250 to win in round 1. She does have a nice ITD line at -115 but I don’t think she will look to grapple so we will be relying on sig strikes and the win bonus for her to score well. At $9.1k, she is just priced too high for me and the only real reason to play her is for ownership purposes because she should be low owned. Maybe she makes 1-2 max of my 20 but I think she will more than likely be a full fade. I think Norma is in play though just to target against Anderson’s weak takedown D and if Norma can win, I think it would be a finish and she ends up on the optimal. I probably will take a shot or two on her but not a fighter I will force into lineups at all and GPP only.
Winner – Megan Anderson via 3rd round (T)KO
Magomed Ankalaev $9,000 vs Ion Cutelaba $7,200
Magomed Ankalaev
Age: 27
Height: 6’2
Weight: 205
Reach: 75”
Gym: Gorets FT
From: Russia
UFC Record: 3-1
Fight Matrix: 27
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: -230
Magomed Ankalaev picked up a highlight reel victory in his last match. He landed a front kick to the face that knocked his opponent out & gave him the win. He has now won 3 consecutive UFC fights, and quickly is rising the ranks. If he wants a chance at the top 15, he is going to have to go through Ion. Ankalaev is a very athletic fighter for LHW. He is a southpaw & explosive. He has a nice, long jab. He will jab to the body & has hard low kicks as well. He has very nice straight-left hands & left hooks. He likes to throw a round kick to the body to a straight-left, right hook combination. He has a nice jab, overhand right combo. He has a strong counter straight-right hand & counter left hook. He likes to mix in nice shovel hooks & short uppercuts into his hook combinations in the pocket. His rear leg head kick is very fast & he will follow with a straight-left hand down the middle. He is a power kicker, whether it’s to the legs, body or head, and when he lands fighters will feel it. He landed a nasty counter left hook to a head kick combination and finished Marcin Pracnio. In his last match, he knocked Dalcha Champion out with a front kick. He is a bit flat footed, but he walks opponents down & has a presence in the cage. When he lets his shots go, he is fast, and I feel hand & kick speed wise he is one of the fastest LHWs in the division. Ankalaev has power with 6 KO/TKO’s in 11 wins. He has good durability and has never been finished by strikes.
Ankalaev is a very strong grappler and great wrestler. He is very strong in the clinch & will control opponents against the fence. He will do damage from that position by landing hard elbows & knees. He is great off the breaks, and will unload with punch combinations, sometimes finishing with knees to the head. He has strong double legs & can lift opponents & dump them on their head. He has good top control, and he has brutal ground & pound. He has put people to sleep with ground & pound punches. He will move to dominant positions such as mount & usually will finish the fight if he can get there. He was finished via triangle by Paul Craig with one second left in a fight he was dominating. He seemed to panic & may be a quick tapper throughout his whole career. He has good takedown defense and gets double underhooks and will snap opponents down and control on top. He can get taken down, but he stays calm and does a good job of sweeping and getting top position or getting back to his feet. Ankalaev isn’t a submission fighter with zero career submissions. He has good cardio, fights composed, and should have the technical advantage everywhere here.
Ion Cutelaba
Age: 26
Height: 6’1
Weight: 205
Reach: 75”
Gym: CSA Moldova
From: Moldova
UFC Record: 4-3
Fight Matrix: 30
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +190
Ion Cutelaba is a beast & extremely aggressive early on. He earned yet another first round finish in his last match, battering Khalil Rountree with elbows. He has 11 KO/TKO’s all-in round one. He is fast & explosive early. He has a nice one-two and will throw an overhand right from hell. When he gets inside, he will let his hooks go in combination with vicious power. He will throw wide hooks & overhands in close range while mixing in uppercuts. He will attack the body with straight punches & hooks. He will occasionally throw oblique kicks to the knee & low kicks. He will occasionally throw a round house kick to the body. In his last match, Ion was staying lighter on his feet & throwing more kicks. He threw some front kicks up the middle, question mark kicks and round kicks to the head. I would say it’s the most diverse his striking has ever been. He was also mixing in heavy knees at the end of combinations. In the past his opponents have started to get a beat on his spinning attacks & cleanly countered him. He can struggle to find his range at times & gets gun shy when countered. Against both Jared Cannonier & Misha Cirkunov, he was coming up short consistently with wild, looping shots & crazy spinning backfists. He did drop Glover Teixeira with a spinning backfist in his last match. It seemed the new style of movement & kicks quickly tired out Cutelaba & he gassed out in like 3 minutes. In round two Glover began to really walk him down heavily & landed big hooks in close range. He allowed Glover to back him up & control the center. The intimidation tactics could be useful here. He does have a good chin & can take a beating. He has 11 KO/TKO’s & has never been finished by strikes.
Ion showed good fight IQ in his last match. He took the fight to his world on the mat & took Rountree out. Khalil Rountree was stupidly trying to attack when Ion shot takedowns instead of defending, but when Ion got on top he was ruthless. He rained down elbows & shortly after the fight was over. He is Greco Roman wrestler, and a Moldovan national champion in judo & sambo. He has solid double leg takedowns & is explosive with his entries. He is strong in the clinch & has solid body locks & throws. He has nasty knees to the body & elbows to the head in the clinch. He was able to finish Antigulov with clinch strikes. In his fight with Jared Cannonier, he landed several double leg takedowns. He dropped Luis Henrique da Silva & knocked him out with viscous ground & pound. His takedown defense is much improved. Against Antigulov he was taken down a few times, but continuously got back to his feet. He eventually battered Antigulov with elbows, knees & uppercuts in the clinch & finished the fight. He defended all 7 of Glover Teixeira’s takedown attempts. He got knocked off balance throwing a strike, and off his back he was dealt with quickly. Glover was able to easily take the back & get the submission. Cutelaba has been finished twice, both by submission. Cutelaba has just two career submissions of his own & isn’t really a threat with Jiu-Jitsu.
Ankalaev is the better of the two with his striking and striking defense and he does have knockout power. However, Cutelaba is the more active fighter so he will likely be the one throwing more volume and he has KO power as well. I also think Cutelaba is more likely to land takedowns as well, but I think this fight will mainly play out on the feet. I do agree with Ankalaev being a favorite here, but I think this is probably a dog or pass fight for me and I will take Cutelaba as my pick for that reason.
Cutelaba is my preferred play here and my favorite cheap punt play. I think he is a live dog and I think he could even get a KO. At $7.2k he will be close to a core play for me and I will likely have 30% or more. I want to get the top 3 favorites in a lot of lineups and Cutelaba frees up the cap to do that. Ankalaev is definitely in play as well with his +130 ITD line but he is my 4th favorite fighter in the $9k range so I can see him being a full fade for me with 20 or less lineups. I do think he makes 1 lineup as a hedge for me because I will have a decent amount of Cutelaba, but if I was making 5 or less lineups, he would be an easy full fade for me.
Winner – Ion Cutelaba via 2nd round (T)KO
Felicia Spencer $9,400 vs Zarah Fairn $6,800
Felicia Spencer
Age: 29
Height: 5’6
Weight: 145
Reach: 68”
Gym: The Jungle MMA & Fitness
From: Canada
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 5
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -800
Felicia Spencer will be entering the octagon for the first time following a loss. She suffered a beat down at the hands of Cris Cyborg in her last match, but valiantly fought three rounds. Spencer was able to cut Cyborg early with an elbow and raised her stock even in a loss. She is now taking on Zarah Fairn, a 6-3 opponent fighting out of France. This is an example of the shallowness of the women’s featherweight division. Felicia Spencer recently finished Megan Anderson in round one. She is now facing an opponent who Megan Anderson finished in round one just four months ago. I know MMA math doesn’t work, but Spencer is a massive favorite for a reason. Spencer is a grappler with good kicks, but no boxing. She relies solely on kicks & strikes such as superman punches or superman elbows to get inside. She did show off some nice elbows in her last match, but she still grabs ahold of her opponent when in boxing range. You can tell Spencer is improving her footwork & she isn’t as hittable. Spencer will look for a left hook and throws a decent left hook, straight-right hand combination. She has good forward pressure & cuts the cage off well. I was very impressed how composed she stayed under fire against Cris Cyborg. She showed she can eat a lot of damage & continue to try to win. Spencer throws a lot of leg kicks. I feel some of her leg kicks are very lazy & a good striker could counter. She throws a lot of hook kicks & front kicks to the body & head. She will throw a superman punch into a round house kick to the body. She will throw a body kick, left hook or a jab, body kick. Her punches seem like they have really no power at all on them. She will close the distance with elbows. When fighters can back her up, she really doesn’t have much. She isn’t fast or the greatest athlete, but she’s very tough & will continue to plod forward. This is a striker vs grappler match. Spencer only has 1 TKO on the mat and isn’t a standing knockout threat. She is undefeated, tough & rugged with a good chin.
Spencer is a solid grappler, and very strong when she gets in top position. I don’t think her entries into takedowns are the best, but she is very physically strong in the clinch. In her fight with Megan Anderson, she did a good job of getting in on double underhooks and getting Anderson to the cage. She has good trips especially against the cage, & nice single legs. She will take the back from standing position. She is very good at using the single leg to get the angle to jump on the back. She is very heavy on top & has excellent back takes. She will flatten opponents out, land some punches & then lock in the rear naked choke. She can get a bit overzealous on top & get shucked off. She also can end up on her back being too aggressive going for takedowns & getting reversed. Her takedowns really to me aren’t super great, she really struggled to takedown Pam Sorenson, and was reversed several times. She can struggle to get inside because she doesn’t have dangerous striking & bad defense, so she can shoot some bad takedown shots. In this fight though, I feel if she gets in on Fairn, she will likely be able to get her down. Spencer has finished 5 of her 7 wins & has 4 submissions including a nice rear naked choke in her debut.
Zarah Fairn
Age: 33
Height: 5’10
Weight: 145
Reach: 73.5”
Gym: Allstars Training Center
From: France
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +550
Zarah Fairn suffered a setback in her UFC debut. She was finished via submission against Megan Anderson which is pretty alarming. Anderson is not known for her ground game and to be submitted by her is not good. Fairn has a stiff test here against a grappler in Felicia Spencer. She likely will need to land a bomb and take Spencer out to win. It’s tough for me to see Fairn improving much from fight to fight or doing much in the UFC, as she is already 35 years old. She has been training at a good gym in All Stars training center, and I don’t think she necessarily looks old out there, but she’s just not that good. In her match with Megan Anderson, she did start very fast. She blitzed Anderson to the cage right away with straight punch combinations but was quickly clinched up & taken down.
Zarah Fairn’s grappling looks pretty nonexistent. Megan Anderson is known as a bad grappler, and Fairn made her look like Royce Gracie. Anderson was able to hit a body lock takedown and almost immediately take mount. Fairn showed little to no defense on the mat. She was pieced up with elbows in mount, made a hasty move to escape & was put in a triangle and submitted. It was a terrible performance by Fairn, and if she gets taken down by Felicia Spencer it’s very likely the fight ends shortly after.
This should be an easy matchup for Spencer. Fairn was out grappled by Megan Anderson who has shown to have a weak ground game and that is Spencer’s bread and butter. I think she might be better on the feet as well, but I wouldn’t line her as an 8/1 favorite if I knew this fight would stay standing. Once Spencer gets the fight to the mat, she will look like the 8/1 favorite and I think she gets an early submission.
Spencer is my 2nd favorite play on the slate with her -210 ITD line and I think she has the best shot of finishing in round 1. She is going to be a core play for me and I will have her or Dawson in almost every lineup I create. I think she will be chalk but this is a great matchup for her to get a submission and she has a -115 win in round 1 line. That is hard to pass up and I think she is a lock in cash games because she is a safer win than Dawson with the highest betting line on the slate. If you favor her over Dawson I think that is fine, but I think Dawson has a higher ceiling and that is why I prefer him for $100 less.
Winner – Felicia Spencer via 1st round Submission
Joseph Benavidez $8,800 vs Deiveson Figueiredo $7,400
Joseph Benavidez
Age: 35
Height: 5’4
Weight: 125
Reach: 65”
Gym: Xtreme Couture
From: California
UFC Record: 15-3
Fight Matrix: 1
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: -145
Joseph Benavidez will be looking at another crack at UFC gold. He is arguably the best fighter in UFC history to never be champion, so we will see if he can finally achieve that goal. This will be the second consecutive training camp for his team against Figueiredo also, so they should have a good understanding of what his tendencies are. Benavidez is a super explosive athlete & he really relies on that on the feet. He keeps his hands low & uses a lot of movement, fakes & feints before finding his opening to close the distance with explosive combinations. Benavidez has a solid jab and a good straight-left hand. He has strong inside leg kicks & good round house kicks to the body. He does a good job of setting up his kicks with feints by throwing them at the end of combinations. He has nice front kicks to the body & even will attack with head kicks. His most devastating strikes are still his hooks & overhands. He landed a hard-overhand right that stumbled Perez in his last match & his usual speed darting in & out was back. Benavidez is extremely fast & closes the distance with hooks & overhands to the body & head very effectively. He has a nice straight-left to the body, overhand right combination. He is very explosive & can close a lot of distance with his blitz attacks. He has a nice counter overhand right where he slides out of the way of a shot and returns. Benavidez struggles with fighters who can control distance, avoid his shots & counter with cleaner, tighter punches. This is a good matchup for him to put the pressure & try to take out a fighter with strikes. Benavidez has 7 KO/TKO’s in his career & has only been finished by strikes one time in his career.
Benavidez is a phenomenal wrestler both offensively & defensively. He is excellent in the clinch. He will get ahold of the plum clinch & blast knees to the head & body. He also has nice, short uppercuts & body shots in the single collar clinch. He does a great job of landing shots on the break & he can stun fighters. He will attack with knees to the head, overhands & uppercuts when disengaging the clinch. He has great takedowns in the clinch & is one of the most physically strong FWs of all time. He has nasty slam takedowns from the clinch & can really manhandle opponents. His style of blitzing in with 3 or 4 hooks & overhands makes it much easier for him to land takedowns. Fighters are worried about getting hit & he will just duck under and land a nice double leg. Benavidez is super active on top and will attack with nasty ground & pound elbows. He was able to get into a wrestling ride position against Alex Perez in his last match & rained down brutal shots & really finished the fight twice via ground & pound. Benavidez will move to the mount where he will look to finish with ground & pound or snatch up a guillotine. His guillotine is top notch & he has a brutal squeeze. He has great takedown defense & has only been taken down by perfectly timed shots by DJ & Cruz. He is extremely hard to hold down & will usually just explode back up to his feet. He’s never been submitted in his career and has only been finished 1 time. He has 9 career submissions, but hasn’t earned one since 2014.
Deiveson Figueiredo
Age: 32
Height: 5’5
Weight: 125
Reach: 68”
Gym: Marajo Brothers
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 6-1
Fight Matrix: 3
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +125
Figueiredo is probably the biggest FW on the roster with the most one punch, knockout power. On the feet, Figueiredo is basic, but has one punch knockout power, and is a big presence. He cuts the cage off well, will switch stances, and almost always controls the center of the cage. He likes to stand in front of opponents, feint & touch opponents to pull counter. He uses a wide, hands down stance & is very athletic & explosive. Figueiredo has a very nice jab. He will skip into range with one-twos and has heavy low kicks. He has a powerful straight & overhand right. Figueiredo likes to kind of shuffle into range & then explode into a left or right hook or overhand. He will attack the body with straights & hooks that have big power. He has very nice uppercuts. The issue in Figueiredo’s striking is he loads up a lot, and if opponents are smart, they use movement & don’t engage in fire fights with him. He isn’t the fastest. Due to the fact he doesn’t throw in combination, he can be low volume and not land much, if fighters can avoid the big shots. He will sit in the pocket & trade wild hooks as shown vs Pantoja. He has started to implement a lot more standing elbows on the feet that are very dangerous & cut opponents open. Figueiredo will also get frustrated & start lunging in & using big movements when he can get inside. This makes it easier to time takedowns along with catch him with counter shots. In his last match, he was definitely more composed, but his opponent was willing to engage with Figueiredo much more than I see Benavidez doing. Figueiredo definitely packs a punch with 8 KO/TKO’s. He has never been finished by strikes.
Deiveson Figueiredo has struggled with grapplers over his career. He got a victory by the skin of his teeth vs Jarred Brooks, where he was taken down many times. In his loss to Jussier Formiga, Formiga was able to take him down to cement rounds. Figueiredo just doesn’t have the greatest takedown defense or get-up game. He was dumped with double legs vs Brooks and taken down with singles & body locks vs Formiga. Off his back, Figueiredo doesn’t do much. He will try to play the guard game, control posture, and does land elbows & punches off his back. He did cut Formiga with an elbow on bottom. He will eventually look to get the feet on the hips & push opponents off, but he can be much too complacent off of his back. In his fights with both Formiga & Brooks, they had over a full round of top control. Deiveson does have a dangerous guillotine, but he doesn’t use it to sweep, and if opponents escape he is on his back. He did catch one against his last opponent & teammate of Joseph Benavidez, Tim Elliott. In full guard, he doesn’t really throw up very many submissions, and isn’t super dangerous other than the guillotine. Offensively, Figueiredo isn’t a bad wrestler. He is very big for the division and gets in on double underhooks nicely using the position to land trip takedowns. He landed a nice blast double in his fight vs Pantoja. He wasn’t able to control in top position very long before Pantoja scrambled back to his feet. I don’t see him being able to control Joe B in top position. In this fight, I think Figueiredo has to stay composed. He has to just try to cut Benavidez off, not get frustrated by the movement & catch him as he’s coming in. He needs to use his straight-right hand & uppercut, and maybe even look for flying knees. If he gets taken down, he needs to work back to his feet as quickly as possible. Figueiredo has 5 submissions & has never been submitted.
This is a good fight and it should be a close one. I think we do see this fight go all 25-minutes and Joe B is the only one of the two with 5-round experience. He is 0-2 when he goes all 5-rounds, but I do think he will have the edge in the championship rounds and that is ultimately why I am picking him here. I think Figueiredo could have early success, but I think Benavidez will be the more active fighter and I think Figueredo could slow down late and I don’t see that happening with Joe B. I think we will see a 49-46 or 48-47 decision win from Joe and the longer this fight goes the more it should play into his favor.
With this fight being 5-rounds it will likely be in every lineup I create. Joe B is my preferred play because I think he has more ways to win and he is the more active fighter. He scored over 100-DK points in his last 3 fights and this one gives him 2 extra rounds to work with. He will be a core play for me and my preferred solo play in cash as well. I do think you can stack this fight in cash games to lock in the winner and 100+, but I am not sure if I will do that or not yet. I like a number of dogs on this card, so I might just put 2 of my favorites in cash and leave Fig out of it, but this is a close fight and Fig is one of the more live dogs. If Fig does pull off the upset, I think he is a lock for the $25k lineup so I like him a lot too and if you are picking him to win, you should have him in half or more of your lineups. I will likely lean 7/3 in favor of Joe B for my personal lineups, but I wouldn’t create a lineup without this fight until I made more than 10 total lineups.
Winner – Joseph Benavidez via Unanimous Decision
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
*** All my premium bets can be found at this link: BigMarleyMMA.com
- Bets are on a 1-5u scale with 1u = $100.
- I am 112-85 for +244.11u (+$24,411) since May 19, 2018 for all premium bets.