BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC on ESPN+ 26 Location – Auckland, New Zealand
This weekend, we have a 13-fight card in New Zealand. DraftKings has some decent contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $120,000 being paid out. I will probably stick to the top GPPs this week and mainly chase that $25k. I will probably throw a handful of lineups, 10-20, in that contest and then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE and 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week and playing 50/50s and double ups.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights and hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Shana Dobson $8,600 vs Priscila Cachoeira $7,600
Shana Dobson
Age: 30
Height: 5’6
Weight: 125
Reach: 69”
Gym: Elevation Fight Team
From: Washington D.C.
UFC Record: 1-2
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -210
Shana Dobson will be looking for a different result in her third outing. She is 1-2 so far in her UFC career & frankly, has looked terrible. She has lost back to back fights & three of four overall. Dobson is a striker & a pretty good athlete. Her hands are only ok to me. She comes up short a lot with her punches. She tries to throw the jab out there and always starts combos with jabs. She likes to throw jab, overhand rights or jab, right hooks. She will throw right hooks & overhand rights as leads also. She will explode in with nice punching combinations, & if she lands, she has power. Dobson will attack the body with hooks at times. Her kicks are the best part of her game. She has very heavy inside leg kicks and is fluid throwing kicks with both legs. She has nice round kicks to the body & head especially with her lead leg. She will throw front leg sidekicks with her lead leg occasionally. She will flick the kick up there & it’s hard to see coming at times. She will throw spinning kicks to the body as well. In her one UFC win she landed a nice overhand right to right hook combination that dropped her opponent. Ariel Beck is very low level & that was her only UFC fight. Dobson tends to allow opponents to control the center of the cage & push her backwards. When she moves backwards defensively, she has a bad tendency to extend her lead hand to try to create distance, but it leads to her getting hit with punches. She doesn’t like being hit & when fighters aggressively forward pressure her she looks very uncomfortable, and she will panic wrestle in those situations. When her nose started bleeding in her last fight it looked to break Dobson’s mentally. Dobson has shown power in my opinion in her fights, but just has one KO/TKO. She was finished by TKO on the mat one time.
Dobson is not a grappler & her grappling defense is not very good. She gives up double underhooks very easily & can be controlled against the cage. When she fought Roxanne Modafferi the first time, Roxanne got a hold of her against the cage, and took her down with a body lock. Dobson showed nothing off her back, was mounted & finished with elbows. She tried to explode out of mount a couple times but had no real technique on bottom. She is strong & was able to disengage from the clinch vs Mueller a few times. She did get a takedown out of necessity in round 3 when she was getting tagged up but couldn’t control position. Mueller was also able to get a third-round takedown, but Dobson worked back to her feet. Dobson isn’t a submission threat with zero in her career. She has never been submitted.
Priscila Cachoeira
Age: 31
Height: 5’6
Weight: 125
Reach: 65”
Gym: Paraná Vale Tudo
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-3
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L3
Betting Odds: +175
Priscila Cachoeira has kept a job in the company simply by being exciting. She is 0-3 in the UFC, but always brings it & her fights are all action. She has fought two tough competitors also in Molly McCann & UFC champion Valentina Shevchenko. Cachoeira had some issues with USADA, but it was proven she had taken a specific medicine for a blood pressure issue which triggered the positive test. Due to that she has been out a while & this is her first fight in nine months. Cachoeira is a bar room brawler. She is extremely aggressive & will absorb a ton of punishment to give her own. Cachoeira is a fighter with a nice jab & a decent one-two. She will throw hard heavy hooks & uppercut combinations. When she gets opponents backed against the cage, she will pour on the pressure & throw long punching combinations. She will attack the body with straight-right hands. She will throw straight-right, left hooks. She throws a lot of overhand rights. She will throw front kicks to the body & head. She will throw head kicks. She throws very hard and has no fear of being hit. She is very wild & has little to no defense. She holds her lands low & has gotten a bit better at moving her head, but still holds her chin very high. She is extremely tough & will plant her feet & go to war. She doesn’t back off when she gets hit and prefers to just throw until someone drops. She has 4 KO/TKO’s and is very durable never being finished with strikes.
Cachoeira is not a good grappler. She won’t go for takedowns much at all or try to get in the clinch. I don’t expect that to change here. She has very bad takedown defense. On her back, she seems lost. She doesn’t control posture well & allows opponents to posture up & land brutal elbows. She will take big shots & not give up and has an unbreakable will. When Valentina Shevchenko was able to pass her guard into side control, she got the crucifix & landed big elbows. She eventually was able to sink in a rear naked choke. She was almost armbarred against Molly McCann in her last match. Dobson is a striker as well, so I don’t imagine that will be a huge issue this fight. She has no submissions and has one submission loss. Cachoeira has questionable cardio, but it looks like she catches second winds. She only fights one way, going forward and throwing bombs.
This is the lowest level UFC fight we have seen in some time and I fully expect this to be a loser leaves town matchup. I think Dobson is the more powerful striker of the two but other than that I don’t think either has much of an edge anywhere and I think this will be a closely contested fight. I do think it should be much closer to a 50/50 fight though, so this is an easy dog or pass fight for me, but it is hard to trust Cachoeira with your money even at these odds.
This is an ugly fight to want to target on DK, but I am not totally against it. I think Cachoeira is in play as a live dog and I am not against using her as a low owned GPP play who could pull off the upset. I am also not against using Dobson because all 3 fighters who have faced Cachoeira so far have scored over 100 DK points. I’ll say my preferred play is Cachoeira and this won’t be a fight I target much at all, but I could see me taking 1-2 shots on either fighter in this fight. GPPs only though.
Winner – Priscila Cachoeira via Split Decision
Takashi Sato $8,300 vs Maki Pitolo $7,900
Takashi Sato
Age: 29
Height: 5’11
Weight: 170
Reach: 73”
Gym: Tribe Tokyo MMA
From: Japan
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 87
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -130
Takashi Sato is 1-1 in the UFC following a submission loss to Belal Muhammad. He will be looking to bounce back here versus Pitolo. Sato is a good striker. He has a wide stance & is very light on his feet. He controls distance extremely well. He has a nasty jab & a clean, powerful straight-left hand. His punches come fast & he moves extremely fluidly with little to no wasted movement. He does a great job of throwing a jab followed by a left elbow which is nasty. He will attack the body with nasty body shots, straight-left hands & left hooks. He is excellent at just sliding out of the way of strikes & countering with his straight-left or left hook. He has extremely fast hand speed & does a great job of peppering with shots & then mixing in more powerful ones. He does stand a bit upright & has his chin high, so he is there to be hit. His eyes & head movement save him in that regard, because he’s able to see the shots coming, move, counter & discourage his opponents. He also is heavy on his lead leg & is there to be leg kicked. Sato has a good chin but can be hurt. He has gotten rocked on several occasions & knocked out before. He has good recoverability & has only been finished by strikes one time. Sato has knockout power with 10 KO/TKO’s.
Sato has good grappling. He has good body lock & judo throw takedowns. He has a strong top game. He likes to take the back, get the mount & finish with strikes. He won his last two fights via ground & pound. Sato is a good defensive grappler. He has solid takedown defense & good get-ups. In the clinch, he has strong hips & will even counter with judo throws & big elbows. He is good at springing right back to his feet & not letting opponents get his hips square on the mat. He is good at sprawling & circling to the back himself. Sato impressed me a lot with his grappling ability, even though he got submitted in his fight vs Glaico Franca. He was able to deny a majority of the takedown attempts, stand up very quickly when taken down, and even defended a rear naked choke & had some ground & pound from top control. He was able to take down Muhammad with a nice body lock. Belal Muhammad was able to take Sato down as well, and eventually took the back & got a rear naked choke finish. Sato isn’t a submission threat with just two in his career. He has been submitted twice.
Maki Pitolo
Age: 29
Height: 5’10
Weight: 170
Reach: 73.5”
Gym: West Oahu MMA
From: Hawaii
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 229
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +110
Maki Pitolo had a terrible performance in his UFC debut. He lost a decision as a heavy favorite and looked terrible. He needs to perform here to prove his worth & keep his job. Maki Pitolo is a good boxer offensively. He has a nasty jab, and a great one-two. He has nice inside, outside leg kicks. He has an excellent jab to the body. He has an excellent left hook as well. He is good at touching opponents with jabs & short hooks, and then mixing in power shots. Sometimes fighters can land hooks or overhands to counter his jab, and he can get clipped a bit when he’s forced to move backwards. Pitolo will turn up & throw long combinations when he finds his range. He is excellent at using good shot selection. He will attack the body & has excellent uppercut, hook combos. He finished Justin Sumter a big 185 lber with brutal body shots. He will mix in spinning backfists, flying knees & elbows when he backs opponents near the cage. Pitolo showed a lot of flaws in his game vs Callan Potter. It became evident he wasn’t used to opponents throwing back at him. Against Potter, he didn’t move his head off center line at all and was backed up easily. Pitolo was touching way too much, and Potter just would not respect the shots & come over the top with power. Pitolo got bullied by Potter and showed no ability to adjust. Pitolo can get hurt, he doesn’t have an elite chin. He can be a little bit reckless at times & slows down in the later rounds. In the fights he’s been stunned, he’s been fighting much bigger men. Pitolo has been KO/TKO’d twice. Pitolo has 5 KO/TKO’s himself.
Maki Pitolo isn’t a bad wrestler & will look to mix it up. In this fight, I would look to just keep it on the feet, avoid wrestling and the clinch. Pitolo does use his longer combos to back opponents up where he will shoot singles & doubles. Pitolo has nice, reactive shots at range also. In top position, Pitolo is almost exclusively a back taker. He won’t throw much ground & pound but looks to pass aggressively & eventually take the back. Pitolo has solid control on the back & will attack with rear naked chokes. He has two rear naked choke victories in his 3 submission wins. Pitolo can get shucked off the back & was submitted by Dakota Cochrane in a scramble with a guillotine. In his fight with Callan Potter, Potter was able to take him down in round three & control him. Pitolo has three submissions & has been submitted twice.
Pitolo took a loss in his UFC debut where he was a fairly heavy favorite. I still think he is the better boxer and I see him being the guy landing more volume on the feet here, but Sato could have success with the grappling or get a KO himself, so this is a 50/50 fight and I have no real lean either way. I will take Pitolo to show up better than he did in his UFC debut and get a finish here, but no bet for me.
I do like this fight on DK because of the FDGTD line at -215. Sato has the better ITD line at +141 but I like Pitolo as an underdog on this card and he is probably my preferred play of the two. These two are priced right in the mid-range so we don’t even need 100+ from them but they have a chance at it with an early finish, so I think this is a fight we should be targeting in GPPs. I don’t love it for cash games, but I am not against using either guy there either because of their price tags.
Winner – Maki Pitolo via 2nd round (T)KO
Angela Hill $8,900 vs Loma Lookboonmee $7,300
Angela Hill
Age: 34
Height: 5’3
Weight: 115
Reach: 63.5”
Gym: Alliance MMA
From: New York
UFC Record: 6-7
Fight Matrix: 19
Last Fought: 3 weeks
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -185
Angela Hill will be looking to keep the good times rolling as she heads into yet another short notice fight. This time Hill will be headed to New Zealand & taking on a relative newcomer to the UFC SW division. Hill was able to knock off another newer breed opponent her last time out in Hannah Cifers, and at 34 years old, she is always usually going to be the older girl. She has accumulated a lot of UFC experience by now, and success as well. Angela Hill has fought five times in the UFC in the last year, which is as many fights as Lookboonmee has in her entire MMA career. She is 3-1 in her last 4 fights & has been looking better than ever. Angela Hill has worked a different type of stand-up game in recent fights. She doesn’t strike at range as much anymore, instead relying more on one shot attacks and the clinch. She does angle well & has nice, drive straight punches. She has nice low kicks, but I feel the better strategy in this fight would be to back Lookboonmee up early to the cage but stay at range and throw combinations while fainting level changes. Loma is still green & you can see her freeze at times when opponents feint level changes. She can get hit & out struck at range by much lesser strikers at times in MMA. Hill has always been really tough & I see her being the girl going forward and throwing more volume in this contest. Hill is in a groove, confident & has felt big power by now. Her Muay Thai experience should also serve her well in this contest. Hill has back to back TKO victories with elbows, and still has yet to be knocked out.
Angela Hill is evolving & showed that once again with her grappling last match. Angela Hill has been thriving in the clinch lately & really working hard knees & elbows. In her last match, she hit a foot sweep from the clinch, took the mount, and brutalized Hannah Cifers with elbows until the referee saved her. She almost choked out Yan Xiaonan out with a triangle as well and showed great get-ups in that fight. Angela Hill needs to stay out of the clinch in this fight. If you have ever seen Loma fight, her hips are extremely heavy. She is excellent at manipulating an opponent’s posture & battering them with knees & elbows. That is the danger zone for Hill here. She needs to be all the way out or on the ground. If Hill can hit a takedown, I think she could get a finish. She is the bigger girl & Lookboonmee has made some mistakes on the mat in recent fights. Hill got a finish on the ground in her last fight, let’s see if she can do it again. Her cardio to me is a question mark here. She has shown good cardio in recent fights but gassed in the past. Having to travel a long way to Auckland and having fought very recently may not help her gas tank. I do feel Hill has reached a point in her career where she is letting it all hang out there & not beating herself anymore.
Loma Lookboonmee
Age: 24
Height: 5’1
Weight: 115
Reach: 62”
Gym: Tiger Muay Thai
From: Thailand
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +160
Loma Lookboonmee entered the UFC in style dominating Aleksandra Albu and sending her packing from the promotion. The fight was a split decision, but the judge who gave the fight to Albu is insane. Loma looked good & is an underrated player in this division. She was originally scheduled to fight Hannah Goldy in a fight she was the favorite in, but now enters this fight an underdog. She is fighting a veteran of the game & only has five MMA fights. None of her opponents have even had 10 fights, much less the experience of Hill. Lookboonmee is no rookie though, she has been fighting in Muay Thai since she was a small child & is very cool, calm & collected in a fight. You never have to worry about her performing, if she loses her opponent will have to take it from her. Loma is a traditional Muay Thai striker on the feet. At range, she can start slow and needs to change her style a bit. She is still pretty flat footed & can be low volume. Lookboonmee has very nice feints though, and sharp straight punches and kicks. Her front kick to the body & head comes fast & hard. She will throw nice round kicks to the body and head as well. Her body kicks can be caught at times, but she will punch on one leg, and has good balance. She has nasty low kicks inside & outside. Loma is also just extremely calm & as the fight progresses gets more and more loose & harder to hit. When she does get hit, she rolls with a lot of shots & is hard to hit flush. Loma doesn’t have one punch power in her hands and isn’t really looking to knock opponents out from range. If she kicks you in the head, she can knock you out though. Lookboonmee has just one career TKO in MMA.
Loma Lookboonmee is an assassin in the clinch & that’s where she lives. When opponents try to take her down, you can see how truly heavy her hips are, and her framing game is top notch. She will break opponents posture & throw brutal knees in succession to the body, and big elbows. She is mean & ruthless with the knees, really trying to finish the fight. Loma also has some incredible foot sweeps and throws. Even though she was much smaller than Albu, she absolutely dominated her in the clinch in her UFC debut. Loma will get nice body lock takedowns as well and has shown a decent top game against poor competition. She will move to mount & that’s where she earned her one TKO victory. In scrambles she has shown some bad stuff. She leaves her arms out there to get submitted and allows opponents to move to dominant position if they win the scramble. I do feel overall Loma is a good grappler and will improve but can be caught. Her cardio & composure is top notch & she will always come to fight.
This should be a fun, high paced fight. I expect it to mainly take place on the feet and I would say Lomo is the more-well rounded striker and she is great in the clinch as well. I give Hill the edge on the ground here, but I don’t see much of this fight taking place on the ground. Hill will be the bigger, longer fighter here and that could cause Loma issues in the striking, but I think this is a dog or pass fight and I could see Loma getting the upset by landing more volume as well as the harder shots.
Because of their price tags, this is probably a dog or pass fight for me. I do think Loma has a solid shot at getting the upset here and I think she scores over 10x if she does. I also don’t see her getting finished, so I think she is a great cash game punt as well. She will be a fighter I look to target in all formats, but I won’t go too heavy on her because I don’t see her breaking the slate or anything. She is just real cheap, and I think she is a live dog with a solid floor and decent ceiling. If Hill was cheaper, I would be interested but I think she will need one of her best performances to get over 10x in a win here and at that price tag I would rather just look elsewhere or pay down.
Winner – Loma Lookboonmee via Split Decision
Kai Kara-France $9,300 vs Tyson Nam $6,900
Kai Kara-France
Age: 26
Height: 5’4
Weight: 125
Reach: 66.5”
Gym: City Kickboxing
From: New Zealand
UFC Record: 3-1
Fight Matrix: 24
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -255
Kai Kara-France is coming back fast to wipe the bad taste out of his mouth from his last performance. France was dominated by Brandon Moreno & beaten in his realm, the striking. Kai is very sharp, technical & when you let him fight at his pace, he can roll over you. France likes to pick his shots going forward & uses his power to discourage forward pressure. He has a really nice jab. He will attack the body, slip & rip, touch and pull and has a crowd-pleasing style. Once he establishes his straight, he is very good at feinting it & using good footwork to control the center. Kai isn’t a huge kicker, but he does have nice technique on his leg & high kicks. France has a nasty cartwheel kick KO on his record. France definitely has big power in his hands & when he can sit down on an overhand or straight punch, he can knock opponents out. The issue he’s had in recent fights is pressure & hand speed. Kara-France likes to load up and throw a lot of one shot attacks. Moreno just had faster hands and was able to eat the shots & walk him down. France can be very defensive & shell up defensively a bit. France is very dangerous in round one. He has 8 knockouts in round one out of 10 in his career and dropped Brandon Moreno in the first. He has been TKO’d twice, but none since 2012.
Kara-France is a well-rounded fighter. He will look to mix it up & grapple, but that’s not his first choice. He likes to keep the fight on the feet, but when the pressure gets too much, he will shoot. France was able to hit a couple takedowns on Raulian Paiva including a timely double leg late in round three. He slammed Mark De La Rosa in their fight. Against Paiva, France did shoot some very bad takedowns that got reversed. Off his back, he was able to stay calm & get back to his feet. France has very good takedown defense & a strong get-up game. He has defended 88% of takedowns in the UFC. He has only been taken down twice in the octagon both very briefly. France will take the submission if he sees it but only has three in his career. He has been submitted twice. The last time he was submitted was in 2014, and he hasn’t been finished in over 5 years. France did look to tire a bit in his last match. I feel in Auckland his cardio should be good though as he won’t have to deal with the travel.
Tyson Nam
Age: 36
Height: 5’7
Weight: 125
Reach: 68”
Gym: Sports Lab
From: Oregon
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 51
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +215
Tyson Nam was styled on in his UFC debut against Sergio Pettis. That is nothing to be ashamed of as Pettis does that to a lot of guys. He will be looking to defeat a fighter with a similar style to Pettis in Kai Kara-France this time around. Nam is one of the biggest Flyweights on the roster & may hit the hardest. He is 36 years old, so the time is now if he wants to get a UFC run going. Nam is a pressure fighter on the feet. He is going to want to walk France down, make the cage small and land one of those concussive hooks. Nam has a nice jab he will double, triple up on to find his range. He will rip the body then go up to the head with hook combinations. Nam has nice body & head kicks as well. He has been pro for 14 years now & isn’t as fast as he once was. Nam likes to load up as well & will throw a couple punch combos, but he isn’t a quick combinations guy with the hands. He is looking to load up & get the one punch knockout. He has even been quoted saying he throws for KO’s. Nam can be low volume though & I feel he has to throw more volume in this fight to win. Nam was basically dominated by Sergio Pettis never getting a beat on him in a frustrating performance. Nam is very durable, but he couldn’t get his own damage off much in that one. Nam has been finished three times by strikes. Nam has 10 KO/TKO’s. He is the most dangerous in round one as well with 7 in round one.
Tyson Nam is a big guy for 125 & will try to bully opponents. He likes to close the distance into the single collar clinch & hit trips or push opponents to the cage & work from there. Nam has very strong takedown defense. He will dig underhooks & disengage. He will land shots on the break that discourage takedown attempts. It’s hard to get in on his hips. Nam has nice body lock takedowns. Nam likes to stand up in opponent’s guards, and rain down big shots. Nam is not a submission guy with only one in his career. He has never been submitted. Nam has good cardio & will have a similar pace all three rounds. Nam can get caught looking for one shot & out volumed, due to that he is 7-7 in decisions. If he doesn’t get the KO it’s a 50/50 chance he’s going to win. Nam knows this is his last chance, so I expect him to come hard. Nam has fought all over the world, so I expect him to be ready to go.
I see Kara-France being the better fighter everywhere in this fight and he has the hometown advantage. He is one of if not my most confident win on the card and I think a KO is the only way he loses this fight. I see him dominating all 3-rounds here and picking up a clear 30-27 decision win.
This is going to mostly be a fade fight for me. Kara-France is the most expensive fighter on the card and I don’t think he has a great ceiling here, so I am not dying to pay up for him. His ITD line is +255 and for the most expensive fighter on the card that is not a line I like to see. I think he is fine for cash games, but I will either fade in GPPs or be underweight to the field. Nam is an OK punt in all formats because he does likely get 3-rounds to work with, but I would rather punt with Loma or KK in cash personally and I don’t like his chances to win the fight, so I will probably full fade him in GPPs as well.
Winner – Kai Kara-France via Unanimous Decision
Kenan Song $9,000 vs Callan Potter $7,200
Kenan Song
Age: 29
Height: 6’0
Weight: 170
Reach: 71.5”
Gym: UFC Shanghai PI
From: China
UFC Record: 3-1
Fight Matrix: 93
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -190
Kenan Song will be looking to run his UFC record to 4-1 following a victory in his last match. Although Song has a 3-1 record in the promotion, he really doesn’t have much momentum. That is due to him having 3 fights in 2 and a half years & fighting a low level of competition. Once again, he’s facing one of the lesser fighters in the division in Callan Potter. I really haven’t been impressed with Song in his last two fights. He has been very low volume. He likes to counter punch & he can just get stuck waiting for the perfect shot. His straight-right hand is his money shot & when he lands it clean, he can put fighters out. He will get his range with some jabs & low kicks, but that’s primarily what he’s looking for at all times. Song will wing left hooks as well & throw them with full power. He is a finisher & when he feels a fighter is hurt, he swarms with punches. Other than in those situations, he isn’t a combination puncher though. Song has some solid round kicks to the body & head as well. They can be caught at times & he doesn’t set them up the best. Song is definitely the better athlete & more dynamic. He will mix in flying knees to the body & head along with spinning attacks. Song holds his hands low & I feel that will leave him available for that leaping left hand of Potter. Song is a dangerous guy with 7 KO/TKO’s. Against an opponent with bad defense he will be looking for another here. Song is a durable guy. He will take shots to give shots an only has been TKO’d twice. Those came against elite strikers in Brad Riddell & Izzy Adesanya.
Kenan Song is not an offensive grappler. He doesn’t look for the clinch or takedowns. He likes to be on the outside striking. Song’s takedown defense has not been very good in the UFC. Hector Aldana was able to catch some kicks & drag him to the mat & he is a low-level fighter. Derrick Krantz got a big, explosive slam on Kenan Song & was able to dominate him with grappling in round two. Song did threaten taking the back a couple times in scrambles. He attempted some submissions, but you could tell his ground game was very low level. I feel if Potter gets top position, he will have his way with Song. Song can get very tired also. He needs to take out or land some big shots early that detour Potter’s forward pressure. Song does have six career submissions, but I would be shocked to see him get one here. He has yet to be submitted in his career.
Callan Potter
Age: 35
Height: 6’1
Weight: 170
Reach: 72”
Gym: Renegade MMA
From: Australia
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 185
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +165
Callan Potter is looking to squeeze out as much UFC magic as possible. At 35 years old earning back to back victories in the UFC would be a good accomplishment. Potter bounced back from getting finished in 53 seconds in his UFC debut with a decision victory last October. Potter is a deceptive guy. He isn’t athletic, but he can explode with quick, powerful left hooks. He will explode into the left hook & use that to crash into the clinch. Potter’s defense is not good though. He comes forward with his chin high & eats a lot of punches. When he gets hit, he tries to grab or sit down & trade instead of showing good defense. He will throw heavy hooks & uppercuts in combination. He showed a lot better durability in his return to 170 last time out taking some clean shots from Maki Pitolo. Potter has been finished several times in his career though. He has been taken out by strikes 4 times. Potter does have a nice head kick, and some head kick KO’s on his record. He has 6 KO/TKO’s himself.
Callan Potter doesn’t hide what he wants to do in fights. He wants to push a fast pace and make his fights ugly with a lot of grappling. Potter is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu with a very good top game. He uses his awkward striking to back opponents up to get into the clinch, and work for takedowns. He will grind on opponents against the cage working short shots & eventually gets the fight to the ground. Potter really wore on Pitolo in the clinch in his last match & kept the fight at his pace. He has nice knees & cheeky elbows. He will get the tight waist & circle to the back or get a trip. Potter also has had some nice hip throws in the past. Overall, I would say Potter is not the greatest wrestler, but he has good judo for sure. He has good reversals & can end up on top when opponents try to get him down. Callan Potter will pull guard and use leg locks to reverse to top position. Potter will also jump on guillotines & armbars. When Potter does get top position, he is very good. He has heavy ground & pound, and nice elbows. He passes to dominant positions quickly & likes to take the back. He has nice rear naked chokes. Potter has 10 submissions & is very dangerous on the mat. Potter has been submitted 4 times in his career. Potter has gassed in the past at LW but looks like he can push a strong pace at WW. He was all over Pitolo for three rounds.
This is not one of my favorite fights on the card. I think Song is the rightful favorite here because he is a more active fighter and is more likely to win by KO. Potter is going to need to look for takedowns in this fight for him to have a chance and he is a live dog if he can get them. I don’t see him getting blown out on the feet, but I think Song can test his chin and I am going to pick him to win by knockout here.
This feels gross, but Song is probably my favorite $9k play on the slate for GPPs. I don’t trust him enough to lock him in cash or anything, but he has the best ITD line on the slate and these other top priced fighters are just not as appealing this week. I will be sure to get Song in a decent amount of GPPs, but I don’t think I will be much overweight to the field because I am not confident in him winning. I just think if he wins, it is likely by KO and if that KO comes in round 1 he has a good shot at being on the $30k lineup. Potter is also an OK GPP play because he is a live dog here and he could have success on the ground. If he is able to win, I think he probably gets more than 10x his $7.2k salary. I definitely wouldn’t trust him in cash, but I am not against throwing him in a GPP or two.
Winner – Song Kenan via 1st round (T)KO
Jake Matthews $9,100 vs Emil Meek $7,100
Jake Matthews
Age: 25
Height: 6’0
Weight: 170
Reach: 72”
Gym: Nexus
From: Australia
UFC Record: 8-4
Fight Matrix: 81
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -210
Jake Matthews is fighting yet again near home in New Zealand. He had a strong performance in his last fight winning a dominant decision. Matthews is 4-1 in the UFC at WW and at 25 years old finally looking to find that consistency in the octagon. If he can defeat Meek, he will likely get another crack at the top fifteen. Matthews is very light on his feet, fast & explosive. He likes to bounce in & out on the outside and explode in with big overhands & hooks. He will close the distance with nice straight punches. When opponents try to come in he will counter with flurries of hooks or overhand heaters. Matthews definitely has big power & can sit opponents down with either hand. Matthews likes to throw an overhand right, left hook combination. Even if he doesn’t land the overhand right, he will still follow through with the left hook & catches a lot of guys backing up with it. Matthews can get very wild & wide in the pocket as the fight goes on. When fighters pressure him & make him feel uncomfortable, he almost just wings & prays hoping it backs opponents off. Matthews has shown some good head movement in the past and will slip & rip well. Fighters who are able to feint & or stay calm, block & return will definitely win a standup fight vs Matthews. Matthews doesn’t throw many kicks, but in this fight, I would throw more leg kicks. Matthews actually got ate up with the low calf kicks in his last match, so he may be ready to throw some of his own now. Matthews will throw some nice flying knees. Matthews definitely has a strong chin and is willing to take shots to give shots. It’s funny because in some fights he seems ready for a war & others he seems to quit. He still hasn’t quite mastered his mental game yet. Matthews definitely is explosive with power. He has 4 TKO’s and has only been finished by TKO one time.
Jake Matthews is a Jiu-Jitsu black belt with a smashing top game. He is very strong in the clinch, he has hard punches and knees to the body while looking for nice trips. He has strong double legs, and he does a good job of grabbing a single leg, coming back up to a body lock and dumping his opponent. He blends his takedowns & grappling well in some fights. When Matthews gets top position, he has tremendous control & ground & pound. He will posture up & land some brutal punches & elbows and use that to improve position. Matthews is always searching for the back where he has an excellent rear naked choke. His last win was a rear naked choke. Matthews also most likely would have gotten a guillotine in a recent fight vs Li Jingliang if it wasn’t for an egregious eye gouge by the Leach. Matthews will snatch guillotines very quickly & has a great squeeze. Matthews has had some fights where he was broken with wrestling & scrambling. In his fight with Andrew Holbrook, Holbrook was able to use leg locks to reverse & take top position & grinded out a victory over Matthews. Matthews gassed in that fight. Now at 170 lbs I think Matthews should have better cardio. Matthews has been submitted twice in his career. He has 7 submissions of his own.
Emil Meek
Age: 31
Height: 5’11
Weight: 170
Reach: 74.5”
Gym: Xtreme Couture
From: Norway
UFC Record: 1-2
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year 7 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +175
Emil Meek is returning after an extended layoff. Meek has had serious elbow & shoulder issues & couldn’t fight all of 2019. He has his back against the wall here with back to back losses & needs to get the win. Meek has been training at Xtreme Couture trying to sharpen his wrestling. As a striker, he already is an explosive, dangerous guy with a lot of power. Meek isn’t very technical, but he’s fast & down to brawl. Meek throws a lot of knees & front kicks to the body and head. He has heavy kicks, he will attack with hard leg and body kicks and slows opponents down. He likes to walk opponents down and stay in their face. He doesn’t use a lot of movement, but he will slowly walk forward and try to land the jab, right hand, and or straight punching combos with good power. He throws bombs and loads up on short hooks in the pocket. He has some nice elbows as well in close. Meek is good at blocking & returning. When he has opponents hurt, he will swarm & look for the finish. His hands aren’t the fastest though & his kicks & knees can be caught. He will recklessly close the distance, smothering his shots & giving up easy grappling entries. He needs to be more composed in this fight. Meek definitely is a dangerous guy who has to be respected. He is a wild man, and always is live for a KO. In his 9 wins 7 are by knockout. Meek’s style leaves him open to being hit himself. He is durable, but very hittable and due to that he’s been KO’d twice.
Emil Meek’s grappling has looked terrible in his last two matches. He has faced two great wrestlers and done nothing on his back. He has been controlled on the ground for over ten minutes of his last two fights. Meek’s single leg defense is not good. He also did not show good ability to chain wrestle against the cage. Meek will look for guillotine chokes and kimuras, but they are low percentage. Once he’s on his back, he has very little ability to get back to his feet. In his fight with Jordan Mein, Meek was able to get some takedowns & top control of his own in route to victory. I’m sure being at Xtremes has improved his grappling a bit. Meek definitely has cardio & grit. He will look for the finish until the final bell. Meek only has one career guillotine submission. He has yet to be submitted on his career. If Meek can’t get his opponent out of there, he is a very iffy proposition on the scorecards, with a record of 1-2. We will see how he performs with his back against the wall in New Zealand.
This should be a KO or bust fight for Meek. He does have power, but he isn’t very active on the feet and Matthews lands a higher volume, with a higher accuracy, and has much better striking defense. He is also levels ahead of Meek on the ground and could finish this fight with a submission. If Matthews doesn’t get knocked out, I fully expect him to win this fight and I see him getting it done with a 30-27 decision.
Matthews is my preferred play here because his most likely path to victory is his grappling. He is also live for a sub IMO, but he is expensive and his ITD line is only +356 which is not good. He is also coming off a 60-point win where he was the same price tag and at that price you might as well be taking a loss. I don’t care for the $9k range at all this week but he is probably my 2nd favorite of the group. I still might only get him in 1-2 LUs but that will be a range I avoid for the most part. Meek is in play as a cheap punt because he does have KO upside here and if he gets it at his price tag I think he makes the optimal lineup. Overall, I won’t target this fight heavily at all, but each guy could make a lineup or maybe two max for me.
Winner – Jake Matthews via Unanimous Decision
Jalin Turner $8,800 vs Josh Culibao $7,400
Jalin Turner
Age: 24
Height: 6’3
Weight: 155
Reach: 75.5”
Gym: RVCA
From: California
UFC Record: 1-2
Fight Matrix: 271
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -220
Jalin Turner has had a rocky start to his UFC career. He is off to just a 1-2 start. Turner is very skilled & dangerous, but kind of a glass cannon. In five losses he has been finished by strikes three times. At 24 years old his chin is already a liability. Turner is going to be way bigger than his opponent. Culibao is only 5’8 where Turner is 6’3. He is a very long, rangy and dangerous southpaw. He is good at fighting long & using his reach. He has a very nice one-two and his straight-left hand is very powerful. He has a very nice lead & check right hook. He will throw the check right hook as he leans back, and it’s effective at maintaining range, but if opponents eat it & fire back he’s there to be hit. He will throw a right hook, left straight combination. He is very good at attacking the body with punches & kicks. He has a nice straight-left hand & a nasty left hook to the body. He has a nice front kick to the body. He has nice spinning back kicks to the body & flying knees. He will throw round & question mark kicks to the head. He will throw nice standing elbows. He will go for the kill when he has opponents hurt & he is a finisher. He finished with a nasty left hook, body kick, right hook KO combination in his last fight. He doesn’t move his head much and does a lot of leaning back instead of using footwork. He has had chin problems in his career. He has been KO/TKO’d 5 times, a few times brutally. He is very fast & athletic and overwhelms a lot of opponents in round one. He has 7 first round KO/TKO’s.
Turner isn’t a grappler but looks to be improving at it. He won’t usually initiate grappling situations & uses his wrestling in reverse. He has good sprawls on takedowns attempts and will attack with front chokes. He has one career triangle choke submission. He does a good job of creating scrambling scenarios right away when the fight hits the ground & scrambles back to his feet. He does go for double legs when he gets hurt, but overall is not a great wrestler. If he does get put on his back, he isn’t very good. He doesn’t do much off his back & can be controlled for entire rounds. He has never been submitted, but he needs to avoid being put on his back until he improves his get-ups.
Joshua Culibao
Age: 25
Height: 5’10
Weight: 145*(LW Debut)
Reach: NA
Gym: Igor MMA
From: Australia
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 203 (FW)
Last Fought: 11 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W8
Betting Odds: +180
Joshua Culibao will be making his UFC debut on short notice. Culibao is going to be undersized here, as he usually fights at 145 lbs. This will actually be Culibao’s first fight in his pro career outside of the FW division. He is 8-0 & will have the home court advantage of being from Australia. There is very limited footage of Culibao on tape. On the feet, he looks like a fast, technical striker with good footwork & movement. He likes to dart in & dart out with sharp shots. Culibao will throw a very nice jab & nasty low kicks. He has a nice left hook. He will throw very tight combinations inside. He has nice, straight punches & good hook combinations. Culibao will mix high kicks into his combos & gives a lot of different looks switching stances and faking & feinting. Culibao is going to be really undersized here & with his style of being on the outside, I’m not sure how that will translate. He could touch that chin for sure & probably will be quicker. He landed a nasty combination of uppercuts that finished his last fight. I haven’t seen Culibao hit much in fights. Culibao has 5 KO/TKO’s in his career. He has never been finished.
Joshua Culibao will mix it up & has solid timing on takedowns. He hit a nice single leg in his last match but wasn’t really able to control on top. I have seen him take mount in a fight & land ground & pound until the fight was stopped. I haven’t seen much of Josh off his back or defending takedowns. He is really kind of an enigma as it’s hard to really gauge how good he is. He is definitely live though vs a guy with a questionable chin like Turner.
Culibao is from Australia and is making his UFC debut here with an undefeated 8-0 record. There wasn’t a lot of film available on him, but I can tell he is mainly a striker with solid footwork and heavy power. Turner is a solid fighter all-around and he fights at a decent pace. I think he will be the guy throwing more volume on the feet, he has KO power himself, and I expect him to be the better grappler as well. He has been (T)KO’d at least 4 times though so I think Culibao can definitely test his chin and at these odds I would say this is a dog or pass fight. I think taking Culibao via TKO isn’t a bad idea here and that line should open higher than +400 I would think. Other than that, this will be a pass for me and if it goes all 3 rounds I do favor Turner.
This is one of my favorite GPP fights on the card because of the FDGTD line at -185. Turner has one of the best ITD lines on the slate and he has a higher ceiling than most of the $9k range IMO. I would rather pay up for a safer win in cash games but for GPPs I likely go overweight to the field on Turner here. I also like Culibao quite a bit because he does have power and Turner has a questionable chin. I think Culibao is live for the upset here and I think he can get a KO in any round. I would avoid him in cash games as well, but he is one of my favorite GPP punts on the card for the KO potential and if he gets it in round 1 he is a lock for the nuts LU.
Winner – Josh Culibao via 2nd round (T)KO
Zubaira Tukhugov $8,100 vs Kevin Aguilar $8,100
Zubaira Tukhugov
Age: 29
Height: 5’8
Weight: 145
Reach: 68”
Gym: Krepost Fight Club
From: Russia
UFC Record: 3-1-1
Fight Matrix: 204
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-1-1
Current Streak: 1 Draw
Betting Odds: -105
Zubaira Tukhugov has had a lot of trouble in recent years inside & outside the octagon. He is most famous for getting suspended for punching Conor McGregor in the post-fight brawl of the Khabib fight. In his return bout he was entrenched as a massive favorite, but ultimately could only muster a draw. Zubaira hasn’t won a fight since 2015, but at 29 years old he still has time to turn it around. I really am not a fan of how Zubaira strikes. He is very wild on the feet. Tukhugov uses a karate stance moving in & out. He doesn’t really use the movement to hit & not get hit though. He will be bouncing right in front of someone not really moving and looking for counters. If his opponent doesn’t throw after a few seconds, he will close the distance with some wild straight or overhand punch combinations & reset. In his last fight, he was throwing some straight & overhand rights. He will leap into hooks, uppercuts & is pretty fast closing distance. He landed a left hook that dropped his opponent in the first round of his last fight. Zubaira definitely throws hard & when he does land clean, he can end the fight. He will throw some nice kicks; Body kicks, head kicks, and nice spinning kicks & elbows. Zubaira sideways stance leaves him open to leg & body shots. He also can get backed up a lot & not let much offense go. He took a lot of shots when he got pressured in his last match. Zubaira is hard to pressure though especially early because of his explosive power & takedowns. He has 6 KO/TKO’s, and only been finished once by strikes.
Zubaira Tukhugov is a Dagestani wrestler with a good array of takedowns. He has nice foot sweeps, trips, throws, and body locks. In the clinch, he is a master of finding his way into top position. The way he strikes also helps him get inside & into the clinch. When opponents pressure Zubaira, he has excellent timing on his double legs. On top, Zubaira hasn’t been very good so far in his UFC career. Against Renato Moicano he was threatened with a triangle and didn’t let much offense go. Against Lerone Murphy, Tukhugov was a wet blanket. Tukhugov is good at controlling and advancing position to not get stood up. He will turk the legs & try to slide into mount. He likes to control in half guard. Zubaira’s Jiu-Jitsu is a little bit questionable. He has one submission & been submitted once, but he gives opponents a lot of opportunities. He was swept with a kimura and threatened with a guillotine in his last match. Zubaira showed extreme doggedness in that fight. In round three he was not successful with many takedowns but controlled against the cage in order to survive. Tukhugov’s exploding style gasses him out, especially if he can’t get takedowns & control in top position. He got to shake the rust off his last match, so maybe he will look better this time around.
Kevin Aguilar
Age: 31
Height: 5’7
Weight: 145
Reach: 73”
Gym: Longview MMA
From: Texas
UFC Record: 2-1
Fight Matrix: 39
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -115
Kevin Aguilar had his nine-fight winning streak snapped at the hands of Dan Ige in his last match. He began his UFC career 2-0 and had some fanfare going into the Ige fight but will now have to build back up. He is getting a fairly big name in Zubaira Tukhugov & is still hovering around the outside of the top 15. Kevin Aguilar is a tough, gritty guy with great heart & tight boxing. He is pretty one dimensional though, and not the greatest athlete. Aguilar will use a nice switch kick to the head following his one-two combination but isn’t an active kicker. Aguilar has a nasty jab, and one-two. His straight & overhand right have one punch knockout power. Aguilar picks his shots well. He will go to the body and head with hooks and has very nice uppercuts. He loves to be on the inside & will let off punches in bunches. Aguilar is usually very tight with his combinations and doesn’t overextend or open up a lot. In his last match, he ate a shot that dropped him in round one, and I believe wanted to get it back. He was overextending & being wide with his punches. Aguilar priced himself on being able to go to war though. He may be hittable at times, but he wears it & hits like a truck. He took some absolute hammers in his last match & didn’t quit. Aguilar has 11 KO/TKO’s & has been finished once by strikes himself.
Kevin Aguilar is not going to be looking for takedowns here. He is going to want to keep this fight on the feet & find the kill shot. Aguilar has strong takedown defense and good get-ups. When he gets up he will attack right away, and that’s imperative in this fight. His opponent needs rest when he gets takedowns, if he doesn’t get it he could break. When Aguilar does end up on bottom, he isn’t a fish out of water. Kevin Aguilar was able to threaten Ige on the mat a bit. He was able to keep Ige inside his guard but took some huge shots. He was close on getting an armbar & took top position in a scramble. I do feel Aguilar has good enough Jiu-Jitsu to protect himself vs Tukhugov & maybe even use subs to get back to his feet. He will attack triangles & the legs. I don’t see him submitting Zubaira, but I don’t see Zubaira finishing Aguilar on the mat either. Aguilar isn’t going to be looking for takedowns in this fight, but when he gets on top he likes to rain down terror. He will land nasty elbows & punches looking to finish the fight. Aguilar isn’t looking to submit fighters, with just one in his career. He definitely has the cardio edge here & needs to push the pace.
Tukhugov is the better grappler here but Aguilar is the better striker IMO. I think Tukhugov will likely win round 1 here with a grappling-based game plan but I see him slowing down and not being able to wrestle as much in rounds 2 or 3 so I think Aguilar will have success stuffing takedowns and winning more striking exchanges. I would think Aguilar wins round 3 here, so I see it coming down to round 2 but I agree with the line that this is basically a 50/50 fight.
I have no lean either way in this fight, but I like that it is priced right in the mid-range at $8.1K and I think the winner has a decent shot of paying that price off. I won’t go heavy on either guy here, but I will likely just go 50/50 with the same other 5 fighters in my lineup for this fight. I definitely won’t use this in cash because I don’t even have a real lean for the winner, but I could see this being on the $30k lineup so I don’t think we should fade it in GPPs even with the -250 FGTD line. I won’t have more than probably 4 lineups with this fight which would be 2 each and the rest of the lineup duplicated in case my other 5 fighters go off. If you are making 1-3 lineups this week I would just fade this fight instead of throwing a LU away using both.
Winner – Kevin Aguilar via Split Decision
Magomed Mustafaev $8,400 vs Brad Riddell $7,800
Magomed Mustafaev
Age: 31
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 71”
Gym: Atletica
From: Russia
UFC Record: 3-1
Fight Matrix: 78
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -135
Magomed Mustafaev is looking to become the kickboxing killer of MMA. In his last match, he finished a credentialed kick boxer in Rafael Fiziev & now is getting another in Brad Riddell. This time Mustafaev will have to do it in enemy territory. Magomed is a power striker. He likes to walk opponents into his shots & is very explosive. He has a nice straight & overhand right. He has super-fast hand speed and can rock opponents in exchanges. He will throw very nice uppercuts. He has a nice left hook. Mustafaev has very nice, front leg sidekicks & round kicks to the body. He will hammer the body early & often with kicks. He likes to pull fighters into spinning back kicks, punches & flying knees. In his last match, he landed a brutal spinning back heel kick which ended the fight. His opponent blocked it & it didn’t even matter. He tends to lose some speed & explosion midway through the first round & is still dangerous after, but not quite the same. He is aggressive & hittable. I think on the feet unless he gets a quick knockout he probably will be a step behind. He does have huge power & can’t be slept on. He has 8 KO/TKO’s. He’s never been finished by strikes.
Magomed Mustafaev has zero career UFC takedowns. He prefers to strike, but in this fight maybe he will go back to his roots. Mustafaev is a Dagestani Russian who’s been wrestling since elementary school. If he comes in with a good game plan, he should look for takedowns. In fights prior to the UFC, Magomed has submissions & slams KO’s. Even in the UFC he’s shown the ability to control against the cage, in the clinch & strength in those positions. He has nasty knees & elbows in that position. He was able to control Kevin Lee in the clinch against the cage and hit some sweeps off his back to stand up. I have seen him in M-1 global fights immediately close the distance & get body lock takedowns. He looks to be very aggressive on top. He pressure passes & will throw heavy G&P. He will look to get to side control & get the crucifix position & finish the fight. Mustafaev gets tired very quickly when forced to grapple heavy though & I feel if he can’t control after takedowns he could gas out quickly. His takedown defense at times is questionable. He will run in and square his hips giving up easy entries. Mustafaev is just excellent at standing back up, & I feel if Riddell takes him down he probably will reverse & end up on top. Mustafaev showed great toughness against Kevin Lee surviving a deep rear naked choke but was ultimately submitted in that fight. He didn’t tap and was put to sleep. Mustafaev has been submitted twice in his career via rear naked choke. He does have four submissions & I feel if he can get on top or Riddell plays in his guard he could potentially catch Brad. Mustafaev comes out early in the first round like an absolute animal. His cardio does drop significantly as the fight goes on though.
Brad Riddell
Age: 28
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 71.5”
Gym: City Kickboxing
From: New Zealand
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 277
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: +115
Brad Riddell passed his first test in his UFC debut, defeating Jamie Mullarkey in a fight of the night performance. Riddell is a legend of the kickboxing scene and looking to make a name for himself in MMA. Riddell is 7-1, training out of City Kickboxing, the same gym which produced UFC champions Alexander Volkanovski & Israel Adesanya. If Riddell can get the win vs Mustafaev here, he may be fast tracked towards the title as well. Riddell doesn’t use a ton of movement but is excellent at controlling distance. He slides in & out of range extremely well & has excellent feints. Riddell has a great jab & heavy inside, outside leg kicks. Riddell has a nasty left hook. He will throw the left hook in combination to the body and head very well. He has a nasty left hook, right uppercut combination. He has a very heavy overhand right. Riddell will pull counter with the right straight or hook. He has very fast hand speed & if he can land a pull counter in the pocket, he usually will come with 3-4 more punches behind it. Riddell likes to fight forehead to forehead a lot or in very close quarters in kick boxing. In MMA, he will have a massive advantage in the pocket. Riddell did get very wild in the fight with Mullarkey and was rocked & dropped. Mullarkey took his back after the knockdown, but Riddell stayed composed and worked back up to his feet. He badly hurt Mullarkey multiple times with tight hooks, elbows and overhands inside himself though. Mullarkey showed extreme toughness to survive to the final bell. Riddell does throw hard round kicks to the body and head. He got a couple kicks caught in his last match and taken down. Riddell has a nasty front knee to the body. He is very explosive and will almost lull opponents to sleep with his feint & then move into range quickly. He has shown the ability to create new angles very well in the pocket with side steps. He will land a combination, side step as opponents try to exit & land clean shots. This is where he usually gets his knockouts. In MMA his feints will be extremely high level. I see him freezing a lot of opponents with them & giving fighters problems. Riddell has 5 KO/TKO’s and has never been finished by strikes.
Brad Riddell is a competent, defensive grappler. He has put in a lot of time with the Hickman Brothers at Tiger Muay Thai & is good at drawing bad takedown attempts out of opponents. Riddell is very good at feinting to draw out a takedown, sprawling & taking top position. In his last match, Riddell showed very heavy hips. Riddell was able to dig double underhooks and has a very nice whizzer. Riddell did throw an un-setup kick in round two, which led to him being taken down. Riddell was able to pop right back up to his feet though and disengage quickly. Riddell had a body kick taken also but was able to dig an underhook & sweep to top position. Riddell wasn’t able to control on top & it’s not somewhere he wants to be. Riddell was able to mount a hurt Mullarkey late in round two but was ultimately swept. Riddell is still green on the mat & definitely doesn’t want to grapple with Mustafaev. Riddell seemed confident grappling with Mullarkey & even hit a double leg, but it’s not something he wants to do with Mustafaev. Riddell has definitely been working on his grappling though & is improving quickly. He was able to defend all the takedowns of Mullarkey, besides when his kicks where caught. Riddell showed some decent ground & pound but is not a finisher on the ground. His lone loss in MMA he was armbarred. Riddell showed strong cardio in his last match & good composure even when put in bad positions.
This should be a fun fight. Both guys have a lot of power, but I think Mustafaev will need to rely more on his power where Riddell is the more active fighter and will be fighting at home. I think this is almost KO or bust for Mustafaev and I could see Riddell winning by a KO himself or getting a decision where he lands more volume and has the crowd cheering for him the whole time. If Riddell can avoid the knockout, then I like him to get the win here and this is a dog or pass fight for me.
This is another fight I like for DK and my preferred play is Riddell. I think he has more ways to win this fight and if this fight goes all 3-rounds I think he is the only one of the two that would pay off his salary with a win. Riddell will be a guy I look to go overweight on here, but he could end this fight with 0-points and totally burn me. Mustafaev has serious power and he could definitely win this fight in round 1, so he is in play for me as well in GPPs. I think we have to get that KO from him to pay off his value though, so I will be rooting for Riddell because I will have a lot more LUs with him personally. He did score 100.5 in a decision for his UFC debut, so I could see that raising his ownership here, but I probably go over 30% myself.
Winner – Brad Riddell via Unanimous Decision
Marcos Rogerio de Lima $8,500 vs Ben Sosoli $7,700
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
Age: 34
Height: 6’2
Weight: 255
Reach: 75”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 5-4
Fight Matrix: 59
Last Fought: 1 Year
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -140
Marcos Rogerio de Lima is making his return after a yearlong layoff. De Lima had a successful UFC HW debut against Adam Wieczorek but faltered in his second appearance against Stefan Struve. De Lima started fast but made a mistake on the ground & was submitted. De Lima is a power Muay Thai striker and starts quickly. He has nasty low kicks & kicks to the body. He will put 100% power into the kicks, and really chops down the legs of fighters. I see those leg kicks potentially being very effective vs Sosoli. He keeps a high guard & will explode in with left hook, straight-right hand combinations. He keeps good pressure on opponents, and did a good job forcing Wieczorek to have to circle with his back near the cage. He keeps a high guard & does a good job of returning with straight-right hands after he blocks a shot. He will throw an overhand right, left uppercut combo. He is at his best when he’s backing fighters up and throwing in combination & finishing with low kicks. He will occasionally go high with kicks, but I don’t think he will this fight. He is dangerous when he lets his hands go in close range & he will have a hand speed advantage in this fight. He has 11 career KO/TKO’s. He has a good chin & has only been finished by KO one time.
Marcos De Lima showed off his grappling a bit in his last fight. He was able to really bully Wieczorek in the clinch, control him against the cage and land clinch takedowns. On top he didn’t show much, he was able to control him on top, but didn’t land many shots. He did fight another fighter who has a dangerous guard and was able to avoid getting submitted. He has solid takedown defense, and obviously Sosoli isn’t going to shoot in on him. Against Struve in his last match, he looked bad off his back. Struve quickly caught a submission & won the fight. Once again, his cardio failed him in his last match after getting off to a hot start. He only has 3 career submissions. He has been submitted 4 times himself.
Ben Sosoli
Age: 30
Height: 6’0
Weight: 264
Reach: 74”
Gym: Resilience Training Centre
From: Australia
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 144
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-0-2
Current Streak: 2 NC
Betting Odds: +120
Ben Sosoli will finally be looking for a clean result this time around. His last two matches he had two no contests. To be fair, he did lose his last match initially, but after Hardy used an inhaler in between rounds it was changed to a NC. Sosoli will be the hometown fighter here. He is still looking for his first win under the UFC banner after losing on TUF & having two no contests on the DWCS & in his UFC debut. Sosoli is a southpaw striker. He is flat footed & holds his hands completely down. He has a great chin & wants opponents to get inside & throw at him so he can counter. He has devastating power in his hands even in close range. He will land nasty hooks & overhands in the pocket along with nice uppercuts. He will take a shot to give one & if he lands, he puts fighters’ lights out. He has real one punch power. Sosoli starts a lot of combinations with jabs and has a very nice straight-right hand. He likes to use a right hook, straight-left hand combination. He has a nice uppercut & is always looking for the overhand left. Sosoli is very good at finding his left hook in close range & knocking opponents out. Sosoli does pressure forward & comes to throw down, so this could be a very entertaining fight. Sosoli was doing a good job of getting inside & landing big shots in his last match before it was stopped. He doesn’t really use kicks much. I have seen Sosoli hurt in fights because his defense isn’t good. I would say he maybe has better defense than Hardy though. Sosoli has 6 KO/TKO’s in 7 wins. Sosoli has never been finished.
Ben Sosoli has bad grappling & virtually nonexistent takedown defense if fighters attack the legs. He is strong & stout and has ok takedown defense against upper body & clinch takedowns, but that’s it. In his last match, he was able to defend a takedown against the cage. He was taken down at will on his fight on TUF & showed nothing off his back. He started safe but couldn’t get-up. He doesn’t shoot takedowns himself. Sosoli has never been submitted & has no submissions.
De Lima is a very hard guy to trust here but I think he is the rightful favorite and has the edge everywhere in this fight, especially early. I think he can win in round 1 with a sub or a KO, but once he goes past one, he tends to fade and Sosoli has the power to be able to put him away in any round. I will pick De Lima here but don’t be surprised if he dominates round 1 and then finds a way to lose later in the fight.
Another mid-range fight I think is a great GPP target here. When De Lima does win fights, it is usually by finish. I think he could have a lot of early success in this fight and I think he is live for that first round finish. At $8.5k I think he is a must play in at least a couple GPP lineups. He does only have a +230 ITD line so that does take a bit of my interest away, but I think IF he wins, it is more than likely a finish, personally. I will probably look to be overweight on him in GPPs, but I don’t see me going there in cash games. I think Sosoli is live for a KO here and the longer this fight goes the more it should favor him. He even has a better ITD line at +170 so I don’t hate that. I will get some shares of him as well most likely, but my preferred play is De Lima.
Winner – Marcos Rogerio de Lima via 1st round (T)KO
Yan Xiaonan $9,200 vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz $7,000
Yan Xiaonan
Age: 30
Height: 5’5
Weight: 115
Reach: 63”
Gym: Extreme Sands
From: China
UFC Record: 4-0
Fight Matrix: 18
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 4-0-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: -250
Yan Xiaonan will finally be set to return after an extended layoff. She was set to face Ashley Yoder but suffered an injury. It’s been 8 months since she’s stepped in the octagon. Yan Xiaonan is a powerful striker. She is light on her feet & has a sideways, karate type stance. She likes to use lateral movement & walk opponents into her power. She has nice inside, outside leg kicks, and a nice jab. She has a very nice left hook and she throws it often. She will throw a nice left hook, straight-right hand combination. I feel her straight & overhand right lead are more accurate than her left hook. She has a nice jab, right hook combination. She is fast & closes the distance quickly. She has a good chin & believes in that and her power in the pocket. She will plant her feet & trade. She is very good at landing her left hook, straight-right hand combination in the pocket. She has nice kicks. She will throw nice round kicks to the body & head. Her best kick is probably her front leg hook kick. She will throw it to the body & head very quickly with nice power. She will attack with that kick as an oblique kick to the knees as well. She will throw nice spinning backfists & will try to mix them into combinations. Overall, she has very good footwork, and distance control. She’s able to land, get out, and angle off the cage well. I do feel that opponents will have success with leg kicks, but not many have tried them. She also gets tired & in round three opponents are able to start walking her down, jam her kicks and make her fight off the back foot. She isn’t as good fighting backwards, and that’s when she can get a bit sloppy with her defense & becomes hittable. She seems to lose the pop on her punches as the fight goes on because fighters are comfortable just eating her shots & walking forward. She has 5 KO/TKO victories, but none since entering the UFC. She has never been finished by strike.
Xiaonan is not a grappler but did finally get a takedown in her last match. She hit a nice clinch takedown, but that’s usually not her thing. She is purely a striker and won’t look to go in the clinch either. When she got clinched up against the cage against Kailin Curran, she did attempt to land a couple elbows off the break. Curran was largely able to control her against the cage without much fear of getting hit. She is good at once she gets up from a takedown or breaks out of the clinch, continuing to fight and starting fast right away. She can be taken down by body locks & well-timed shots, but she’s shown decent get-ups in the UFC. Her one loss came by way of submission, but I don’t envision much grappling in this fight. In the fight where she did get the takedown vs Angela Hill, it didn’t go well for her on the mat. She was immediately put in a triangle and saved by the bell. She has to work on her ground game a bit. Yan overall is a strong competitor who can go strong for three rounds.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Age: 34
Height: 5’3
Weight: 115
Reach: 64”
Gym: Shark Top Team
From: Poland
UFC Record: 5-5
Fight Matrix: 23
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L3
Betting Odds: +210
Karolina Kowalkiewicz needs to perform in this spot. She has been brutalized in her last two fights & hasn’t looked good. If she loses this one in similar fashion it may be time to hang them up. Karolina doesn’t have a lot to gain from winning this fight, but it’s a must win with three straight losses. Karolina is a tough, come forward striker. She is a plodder & relies on taking shots to give shots & get inside. She has a nice jab, and a solid one-two. She will throw heavy leg kicks. She will throw jab, right uppercut combos and left straight, right hook combinations. She will attack the body with strikes. She will blitz forward with 4-5 shot combinations when she gets opponents on the back foot. She can run in with one-twos and her chin high & be countered. She will stick in the pocket & trade. She doesn’t have a lot of head movement, keeps her left hand low, and gets hit a lot but it doesn’t seem to faze her as she will just march opponents down with a 1-2. She throws in combination and has a lot of volume. She will overwhelm her opponents with constant forward pressure and shots. She will throw body and leg kicks, and the occasional head kick. She will throw spinning kicks to the body & head as well. She doesn’t have the best hand or foot speed & that showed in her last two matches. She has looked to have even lost another step & really struggles to close the gap. She has been taking a ton of punishment and her chin isn’t holding up as well. Karolina does have great composure. She stays calm & will be able weather storms and come back. She has shown great durability over her career but was knocked out very badly vs Jessica Andrade. That is the only time she has been knocked out. Karolina doesn’t really have big power with one career TKO.
Karolina is an excellent inside fighter. In the clinch, she is nasty. She has great elbows & knees. She does a great job of framing, creating space for big knees to the body followed by elbows to the head. She will really beat opponents up in that position and is physical for the division. I feel that she is going to be the much stronger fighter in this matchup. Karolina has good clinch takedowns & solid top control. She will attack with nice G&P and has decent control. When she was taken down by Felice Herrig, she was able to sweep into mount & attack a triangle. She will be the physically stronger fighter here. She has pretty solid takedown defense, and get-ups. She has been submitted one time by Claudia Gadelha very early. She showed good takedown defense in her last fight but was taken down a couple of times. I don’t think Yan will be looking for many takedowns, but Karolina has to be ready to defend her if she grapples with her. Karolina isn’t a huge submission threat herself with two submissions.
This should be a 15-minute striking match and I don’t expect either side to look to grapple, unless they are clearly losing the striking battle. Yan is 4-0 in the UFC and KK is coming off 3 straight losses, so I think the recency bias is playing into this line a bit and I expect it to be closer than the line indicates. This should be a high paced striking fight and I don’t see either side dominating so I expect a 29-28 type decision either way. There is no way I could take Yan to win this fight over 75% of the time which is what I would need to do to bet her at her line, so this is dog or pass for me and I think KK is towards the end of her career now and she is hard to trust at this point.
This is one of the best cash game fights to target IMO and that goes for both sides. If Yan wins, I think she scores well with all the volume we should see in this fight. I don’t know that she scores over 10x here, so I don’t love her in GPPs, but I would be surprised if she scored less than 75 in a win, so she is one of the better pay up options for cash if you do like her to get the win. KK is also a great cash game play because she could score 30-40 in a loss here and she is only $7k. I also think this fight is stackable in cash games and I am not against a dub stack this week. My preferred GPP play is KK because she has a better shot at paying off her salary in a win and I would be surprised if she didn’t get more than 10x if she can pull off the upset. I won’t target this fight much in GPPs, but I think you need either Loma or KK in cash games as your punt this week.
Winner – Yan Xiaonan via Split Decision
Michal Oleksiejczuk $8,200 vs Jimmy Crute $8,000
Michal Oleksiejczuk
Age: 24
Height: 6’0
Weight: 205
Reach: 74”
Gym: Gornik Leczna
From: Poland
UFC Record: 2-1-1
Fight Matrix: 32
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-1-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -130
Michal Oleksiejczuk needs to bounce back after a poor showing against OSP. He was dominating early, blew his load and got submitted after he gassed. Michal is a southpaw, power striker who comes forward & puts a lot of pressure on opponents. He isn’t the most athletic fighter, but he has technical boxing & fast hands. He has good body & head movement and gives different angles. He does a good job of staying loose with his hands & body movement. He will use a lot of fakes & feints. He has a nasty overhand left & left hook in the pocket. He will throw nice one-twos down the middle. He does an excellent job of attacking the body with left hooks & straight-lefts. He will throw a jab, left hook to the body or a left straight to the body right hook combination. Michal does a great job of blocking & returning in the pocket and has good defense in close range. He has nasty round & front kicks to the body. In this fight early on I think he needs to use some of those kicks, attack the body, and move. He needs to not stay in front of Crute but keep the pace high. His pace & body attack really tired out Khalil Roundtree, and finished Gian Villante, to the body. Michal showed his true power in his last match. He dropped Antigulov moving backwards with a left hook & then took him out with an uppercut. He can get hit as he enters with overhands, and he takes shots to give shots with his style. Oleksiejczuk has huge power and has finished 10 of his wins by KO/TKO. He has knocked out 5 of his last 6 opponents. He has only been finished by TKO one time in his career.
Michal Oleksiejczuk is a very competent grappler. Michal showed off some good fight IQ, catching a kick and taking Khalil Rountree down in round 1 when he was most explosive. He took Rountree down again with a nice single leg in round 3, and in this round, he showed more top control. He was able to land some nice elbows and body shots from full guard and kept Rountree grounded. He progressed to the back for a brief period & showed good ability to move to more dominant positions. He has good takedown defense. In his last 2 UFC fights we have seen no offensive grappling from Michal. He trains with Robert Roszkiewicz who is a former Juco national wrestling champion in the USA, so he is trying to round out his game. In the UFC we have yet to see him have to fight off his back. Antigulov tried a couple takedowns but didn’t set them up at all & wasn’t even close. We haven’t seen Michal defend shots where opponents are deep or fight off his back in the UFC. Crute will definitely try to test that. Michal isn’t a big submission threat with just 1 in his career. He was submitted by a triangle in his 3rd pro fight. In his last match, he got tired after a strong first round & when he was taken down had nothing. He showed that maybe he should go to 185. When OSP took him down, he was outmatched physically. I don’t think Crute is as good as OSP, but he has to be ready here. He has lost by submission twice now.
Jim Crute
Age: 23
Height: 6’2
Weight: 205
Reach: 74”
Gym: Stewies House of BJJ
From: Australia
UFC Record: 2 Months
Fight Matrix: 42
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +110
Jimmy Crute will be looking to bounce back following a loss for the first time in his career. He will be getting to do it at home against a fellow prospect in Michal. Jim Crute is aggressive & athletic with strong grappling skills. He is pretty light on his feet & is pretty quick for someone his size. He will throw jab, straight-right hands and has a good overhand right. He will throw an overhand right, left hook combination. He earned a finish on the DWCS with a straight-right, left hook combination. He will slip the jab & throw overhand lefts. He has decent head kicks, and solid body kicks. He will throw them heavy. He still is green on the feet in my opinion. He uses some big movements to close distance at times without setting them up. He is hittable, and he needs to be extremely careful against Cirkunov who is a good counter striker. Crute is a big, powerful guy, and he isn’t a huge knockout threat on the feet. He has three TKO’s, two being on the ground from mount position. He is 10-1 and still is very durable and confident.
Crute is a very strong wrestler with a good double leg. He has quick passes and does a great job of getting to side control and then full mount. He gets very high in the mount and will land heavy ground & pound punches and elbows. He does a great job of staying heavy in mount, and not letting fighters explode up. He can get too high on the mount and rolled at times, but he will attack with leg locks and does a good job of winning scrambles and ending up back on top. He has nice arm triangles from top position and was attacking with nice kimuras against Paul Craig. He has good takedown defense, a good sprawl & will circle to the back. He was taken down a few times against Paul Craig with double legs, but he showed good defense on the mat and good sweeps. Craig did have a couple minutes of top control in round 2. In his match with Misha, he made a lot of amateur mistakes on the mat. He got too excited, gave up position & was submitted by being sloppy. That was the first time he was submitted in his career.
I think Oleksiejczuk is the better striker here but Crute is the better grappler. Michal can win this fight with a KO or he can just box up Crute for 3-rounds if he can keep this fight on the feet. Crute has heavy power on the feet as well but he is sloppy, so I give Michal the edge if this fight stays standing unless Crute can get the KO. I think this fight is a dog or pass fight though because of Crute’s edge on the ground. I think he is more likely to get takedowns and if he can I think he can win with a submission or steal close rounds. I don’t think either of these guys are in their prime yet though, so I expect improvements each fight and I don’t know that there is enough value in Crute at +120 for me to bet. I will keep an eye on it though and if he gets closer to +150 I would probably pull the trigger on a play.
This might be the best or 2nd best GPP fight on the card to target and close to an all-in type fight. We have a -250 FDGTD line and either guy could get the finish, and possibly in round 1. If that happens at their mid-range price tags they will basically be locks for the $30k lineup so we should be loading up on this fight IMO. I am not confident either pays off their salary in a decision win, but I don’t hate siding with Vegas if they think its 2/1 this fight doesn’t go to the judges. Crute is my preferred play because I am picking him to win and he is cheaper, but I like Michal almost just as much and I will try to be overweight to the field on both. Michal has the 3rd highest ITD line on the slate at +150 but I see Crute having more ways to win here personally and I think his +240 ITD line might be a bit high. I don’t care for either sides in cash games but for GPPs this is one we should target and whichever side you like more should be one of your more owned GPP plays IMO.
Winner – Jimmy Crute via Split Decision
Dan Hooker $8,700 vs Paul Felder $7,500
Dan Hooker
Age: 30
Height: 6’0
Weight: 155
Reach: 75”
Gym: City Kick Boxing
From: New Zealand
UFC Record: 9-4
Fight Matrix: 8
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -150
Dan Hooker will be looking for the biggest win at home this weekend. As a striker he has a great jab and a nice straight-right hand. He uses great movement and angles and will keep fighters on the end of his punches. He switches stances a lot and can jab off both stances making him tricky. He also will switch stance mid combination and throw straight punches when he sees angles to catch opponents coming in. He was able to overwhelm Burns with his precision and hurt him early. He sniped & took out James Vick in round one also. Hooker has great kicks; Nice leg kicks, great round and snap kicks to the body and nice head kicks. He battered the legs of Al Iaquinta with low calf kicks that basically won him the fight. Iaquinta could barely stand by the third round. Hooker has a really nice snap front kick. He also has a great lead knee that he’s knocked out Ross Pearson and Jim Miller with. He is a vet and does a great job of picking up the pace as the fight goes on with great cardio. He has 6 KO/TKO’s. He was finished by strikes for the first time in his career vs Edson Barboza. He took an ungodly amount of damage to all parts of the body. His legs were battered, he got dropped several times & was finished with body shots.
Hooker is a solid grappler, but not much of a wrestler. He will try to close the distance and get the fight against the cage. He will try to get singles and double legs. He also has good clinch trips, and his height gives him an advantage in those positions. He does a good job of getting the back when he gets on top, and he has good control, and long arms which he can find a choke with. His takedown defense is not great, but he has an awesome guillotine he will counter with when fighters attempt takedowns, and he has a great squeeze. He has 7 career submissions. He is susceptible to being beat up and submitted if he’s put on his back and has been submitted twice.
Paul Felder
Age: 35
Height: 5’9
Weight: 155
Reach: 70”
Gym: Roufusport
From: Philadelphia
UFC Record: 9-4
Fight Matrix: 9
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +130
Paul Felder has been showing the best form of his career since going to Roufousport. If he can win here he will be very close to a UFC title shot. On the feet, he is technical. He has a nice jab and left hook. He will throw nice straight-right hands. He has a nice one-two. Felder likes to throw a right hand to the body to a left hook combination. He will throw hard roundhouse kicks to the body and step-in knees. He will throw a knee to the body to a straight-left combination. He will load up and throw brutal leg kicks. He has great spinning techniques with spinning backfists and spinning heel kicks. He will throw spinning back elbows and front elbows. He definitely has power, but I wouldn’t call him a knockout artist. He does have 10 career KO/TKO’s. He is extremely tough & durable. He has never been finished by strikes. His one TKO loss was a doctor’s stoppage.
Felder is a dangerous grappler. He has shown he is good in all facets, his clinch game is strong, and he has great knees to the body and the head and some of the best elbows in the business. He dropped Stevie Ray with a massive knee in the clinch, and then followed up with devastating elbows to finish him. He finished Oliveira with the same nasty G&P elbows after surviving a lot of deep submission attempts. He has some of the nastiest ground and pound along with Jeremy Stephens in a long time. Felder is going to have to get inside & clinch and use his elbows. He has good takedown defense & get-up game. He attacked with an armbar when he was taken down by Perry. He can get beat up in the clinch with elbows himself & was finished via cut against Trinaldo do to that. Felder needs to close the distance & throw more than one. He isn’t a submission threat but using the clinch & takedowns to create striking openings may be a smart game plan.
This fight card is in Auckland, New Zealand where Hooker is from. I like him stylistically in this fight, but the home field advantage makes me like him here even more. I think this is a fairly close fight, but I do give Hooker a slight edge in every department. I think he has made a lot of improvements over the years and it will be nice to see how he fairs here in a main event in his home town. 17 of his 19 wins are via finish, but Felder is hard to finish so I could see this one going 5 rounds. I like how Hooker has been putting his striking together lately, so I think he will win most of the striking exchanges and I think he is the better fighter on the mat as well. I think either guy could get a KO here, but I do favor Hooker to get the finish or decision, so he will be my pick to win a 49-46 UD.
This is my personal favorite fight to target and I will be all-in on this fight, but it only has a -140 FDGTD line so if it wasn’t for it being 5-rounds I would like the co-main event more. Hooker is my favorite overall play on the slate though and I do expect him to be the highest owned. I will have probably close to 70% Hooker in my lineups because I think he is the better fighter everywhere in this matchup and at $8.7k I am still pretty confident he pays that off if this goes the distance. Felder would be in my other 30% of lineups though because he is a lock to score more than 10x here and he could get a KO in any round. I also like the stack in this fight because I do think it will be a banger and we should be locked in for more than 100 total points. Load up on the main and co-main for GPPs this week and hopefully we can get the combo that takes down the $30k.
Winner – Dan Hooker via Unanimous Decision
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
*** All my premium bets can be found at this link: BigMarleyMMA.com
- Bets are on a 1-5u scale with 1u = $100.
- I am 110-84 for +241.71u (+$24,171) since May 19, 2018 for all premium bets.