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BigMarley3’s UFC 247 DraftKings Breakdown

BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown

 

Event – UFC 247                                              Location – Houston, Texas

 

This weekend, we have a 12-fight PPV with two title fights in Houston. DraftKings has some great contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $25 buy-in and $100k goes to 1st place with a total of $300,000 being paid out. I will probably stick to the top GPPs this week and mainly chase that $100k. I will probably throw a handful of lineups, 10-20, in that contest and then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE and 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week and playing 50/50s and double ups.

A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.

 

With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights and hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:

 

Austin Lingo $8,900 vs Youssef Zalal $7,300

Austin Lingo

Age: 25

Height: 5’9

Weight: 145

Reach: 70”

Gym: Fortis MMA

From: Texas

UFC Record: 0-0

Fight Matrix: 434

Last Fought: 6 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W7

Betting Odds: -210

 

Austin Lingo will be making his UFC debut with a perfect 7-0 record. He is fighting out of a gym with a lot of hype in Fortis MMA, which is based in Texas. He should have the crowd on his side & be ready to get the finish. Austin Lingo is an aggressive finisher with four wins in under one minute. Lingo is a very good boxer with one punch power in both hands. Lingo takes the center of the cage immediately & tries to back his opponent towards the cage. Lingo has an excellent jab, fast, straight punches & concussive hooks. He will double jab his way into hook combinations & has fight ending power with both hands. His left hook is nasty & he slept his opponent with it in thirteen seconds in his last fight. Lingo has very fast hand speed & a chin. He’s willing to trade with opponents inside & force brawls that he usually ends up the winner of. Lingo will throw some occasional low kicks but is pretty one dimensional. He wants to box & be inside. Fighters who will have success against him are wrestlers or opponents who can stick & move. Lingo is hittable, but willing to eat shots & keep coming forward. He is 7-0 with 3 KO/TKO’s & definitely packs power. In the amateurs, Lingo was knocked out by Charles Williams, but he avenged that loss as a professional.

Austin Lingo doesn’t have a lot of grappling footage out there, but I don’t think he is a great grappler. His wrestling looks subpar & he’s been taken down very easily with doubles & clinch takedowns. Lingo looks a little lost in the clinch & doesn’t dig underhooks. Lingo doesn’t look to wrestle offensively much. Lingo is a guillotine hunter & will look for that to counter takedowns or from inside his guard. That is a bad tendency to me against higher level competition. I don’t see him pulling that guillotine against many opponents. Lingo has two career submissions. He definitely has good cardio & will fight for your money.

 

Youssef Zalal

Age: 23

Height: 5’10

Weight: 145

Reach: 75”

Gym: FactoryX MuayThai

From: Colorado

UFC Record: 0-0

Fight Matrix: 614

Last Fought: 3 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: W1

Betting Odds: +175

 

Youssef Zalal is a 7-2 prospect fighting out of FactoryX Muay Thai. He won his last match with a big, flying knee, which probably helped give him this opportunity. Zalal has lost two of his last three fights but has finished all seven of his wins. Zalal has undoubtedly fought the tougher competition but has also tasted defeat. Zalal is a tall, lanky striker with nice movement. That movement will need to be on full display in this match as he does not want his back against the cage. He is constantly switching stances & has good head movement. Zalal does hold his hands low & that’s a little nerve racking against a fighter like Lingo. Zalal isn’t great with the hands. He will throw the jab out there, use a one-two, but his defense in boxing range is bad. Zalal does have nice low kicks. He has excellent round & front kicks to the body and head. He will throw nice question mark kicks and looks to be kicking & moving until he can time level changes.  He had a nasty flying knee in his last match that knocked his opponent out. Youssef is very fast & explosive. He will be the better athlete in this matchup. Zalal has two KO/TKO’s. I have seen Zalal get rocked with punches but never dropped & he recovers quickly. His striking is definitely improving.

Youssef Zalal likes to mix it up & I see him as the clearly superior grappler in this fight. Zalal has nice level changes with single & double legs to complement his clinch takedowns. I definitely see him getting a few takedowns in this matchup. In top position, Zalal has very good control & nice ground & pound. He will throw heavy elbows that cut opponents open, but his main objective is getting to the back mount. Zalal will lock up very nice, rear naked chokes. Zalal also will attack guillotines, darces & brabo chokes when opponents work to stand up. Zalal has five submission victories & has never been finished.

 

Both guys are making their UFC debuts here. Lingo looks pretty well-rounded and he has a lot of power in his hands. He also has a decent submission game. He looks like the better all-around fighter here but most of his fights end in 35 seconds or less, so I wouldn’t want to trust him at this price with a bet. I think Zalal is live for a finish, but I think Lingo is more likely to get the KO and decision win.

I like both sides of this fight, but more so the Lingo side. I think he is more likely to win ITD and I like the line that FDGTD at -170. Zalal could get a finish himself so I like him for cheap as well, but just a guy I will throw into a couple lineups. Lingo is a guy that could get overlooked a bit here and I will likely try to be a bit overweight to the field. I don’t love this fight for cash games, but I am not against Lingo there either.

Winner –  Austin Lingo via 1st round (T)KO

 

Andre Ewell $8,400 vs Jonathan Martinez $7,800

Andre Ewell

Age: 32

Height: 5’11

Weight: 135

Reach: 75”

Gym: Apex MMA

From: California

UFC Record: 2-2

Fight Matrix: 56

Last Fought: 3 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: -125

 

Andre Ewell is making his first start of 2020 looking to rebound from his loss to Marlon Vera. Ewell has traded wins & losses so far in his UFC career. Andre Ewell is very fast & long. Ewell is very explosive & powerful with good distance control. He has a nice jab & left hook, and a nasty straight-right hand. He will throw a powerful one-two combination. Ewell’s whole game is really predicated on countering. He will use his lead hand jab or left to touch his opponents, and he wants them to commit so he can pull counter with his right hand. Ewell is very good at landing shots off the back foot. He will plant & spring into straight overhands & hooks with the right. He is willing to trade & has very fast hand speed. In his last match, he was landing a lot of wide hook combinations. Ewell was landing some nasty body shots against Chito Vera. Ewell will throw occasional leg kicks & some snap kicks up the middle. Ewell also will use some round kicks to the head. In the past, he threw it more often & was taken down off it vs Nathaniel Wood. In his match vs Anderson Dos Santos, he used primarily his hands. Ewell can leave his chin high & fighters who can slip & come over the top with overhands & hooks can hurt him. Nathaniel Wood was able to drop him & keep him on the back foot that way. Ewell was hurt by low kicks when he fought Chito Vera in his last match. Vera hit him with some big knees that dropped him & was the first fighter to beat Ewell by G&P. Ewell has 7 KO/TKO’s.

Andre Ewell is not a good grappler. He has a deficiency with takedown defense & is not good off his back. Ewell doesn’t defend takedown shots very well. He also can be taken down in the clinch fairly easily. His distance control isn’t bad, and he did defend a few double legs against the cage in his last fight. He did get taken down with a single leg in the second round. Ewell was also able to stand up in round two & three by exploding out of the mount. He still showed some major short comings on the ground though. He was taken down with a double leg in the 3rd round & couldn’t get back to his feet. Ewell is long & does a decent job of initially using his guard to try to scramble, but he’s very green. He doesn’t have enough urgency to get-up & allows opponents to pass to dominant positions by exploding at the wrong times. When he fought Nathaniel Wood, he gave his back in a scramble & was submitted with a rear naked choke. Andre Ewell does have decent front chokes. He will attack with guillotines & darces to defend takedowns. Ewell has to know his grappling isn’t good and needs improvement. In his match with Marlon Vera, he showed improved takedown defense, defended some submissions & did better in that realm. He even had some top control time. I feel this probably will be a standup fight, but I could see Martinez maybe trying to get takedowns. Ewell has been submitted 3 times, but two have come against high level opponents. He has four submissions himself.

 

Jonathan Martinez

Age: 25

Height: 5’7

Weight: 135

Reach: 69.5”

Gym: Factory X Muay Thai

From: Texas

UFC Record: 2-1

Fight Matrix: 76

Last Fought: 6 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W2

Betting Odds: +105

 

Jonathan Martinez is getting a slight step up in competition after back to back UFC victories. He had a devastating knockout finish of Pinyuan Liu in his last match. Martinez is a tough, scrappy kid with a lot of heart. He has steadily been improving his confidence & technique. Martinez is a rangy, southpaw striker with very good kicks. He is smaller for the division, but a very quick guy with good movement. He walks opponents down, feints & throws occasional kicks looking to draw out shots to counter. Martinez has a nasty rear leg front kick to the body & head. He has good round kicks to the body and head also. In his last match, he landed a disgusting front knee to the chin that shut Pingyuan Liu off instantly. Martinez has 3 KO’s with knees. He isn’t super active with the hands offensively. He will throw the jab & right hook occasionally, but really relies on knees, kicks & pull countering. He will throw pull counter jabs, straight-lefts and isn’t bad at planting on his back foot when opponents blitz & catching them clean. Martinez can struggle with pressure & combinations. He has a tendency to shell up & not move his feet. Andre Soukhamthath dominated him, backing him towards the fence, not giving him space & throwing combinations to the head and body. Martinez doesn’t have the greatest chin to me but is smart in how he protects it. He is hittable, especially against more athletic fighters who can blitz in or guys who force him backwards. When he gets hit & rocked, he will shoot immediately or drop down & work to recover. He was dropped twice vs Andre and survived to see the final bell. He has never been finished in his career. Martinez has 6 career KO/TKO’s.

Jonathan Martinez is a pretty solid grappler. He was able to control Andre Soukhamthath in the clinch for portions of their fight. In his match with Soukhamthath, he also got a body lock & back take. He showed strong scrambling ability against Wuliji Buren after being taken down. He wasn’t able to stop the takedowns of Buren though. He was able to hit multiple sweeps. Martinez isn’t a big ground & pound guy on top. He did open up with some big shots in the last twenty seconds of his match with Buren. The dangerous aspect of his ground game is his rear naked chokes & armbars from bottom.  Martinez isn’t a huge submission threat with just two in his career. Martinez’s best trait is his cardio & heart. He will make opponents work & will likely be there until the final bell.

 

This is the closest fight on the card IMO and I have no lean either way. I think this will be a striking battle for the majority of the fight and I think this will go to the judges. I think they will be landing shots at a very close rate and I don’t see either guy landing more than 1-2 takedowns in this fight. I think this is a 50/50 fight and since Martinez has the + sign next to his name he is the guy I will pick. Zero confidence in that pick and I think this will be a back and forth, slower-paced striking battle.

This is going to be Martinez or pass for me. I don’t see Ewell making any of my lineups this week and I don’t think he scores well if he does win. He has 2 UFC wins and he scored 67 and 72 in those fights. At $8.4k, those scores aren’t going to cut it. I am a bit interested in Martinez here though because I think he is one of the more live dogs on the card. I don’t see him scoring well with a win either, but at $7.8k he is more likely to hit 10x in a win here, so I will toss him in a couple lineups. I think he is a fine cash game option as well.

Winner – Jonathan Martinez via Split Decision

 

Domingo Pilarte $8,200 vs Journey Newson $8,000

Domingo Pilarte

Age: 30

Height: 6’0

Weight: 135

Reach: 74”

Gym: Revolution Dojo

From: Texas

UFC Record: 0-1

Fight Matrix: 207

Last Fought: 7 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: -130

 

Domingo Pilarte will be making his second UFC start & looking for a better result. He was upset as a big favorite in his debut losing a split decision to Felipe Colares. He is getting to fight in his hometown of Houston, Texas. Domingo Pilarte is going to be the much bigger guy here. He is 6’0” tall to Newson’s 5’5” and will have a 6.5-inch reach advantage. Pilarte was slow off the blocks in his last match. He didn’t move his back off the cage and allowed Colares to clinch him against the fence almost immediately. He spent over 4 minutes controlled in that round. That has to be a wakeup call for Domingo. He can’t start slow in the UFC where all these guys are really good. Hopefully he is ready to go right away in this one. Pilarte is a southpaw who uses a long stance & a lot of kicks. He throws a lot of front leg sidekicks. He has nice inside, outside leg kicks along with oblique kicks. He has nice front & round kicks to the body & head. He doesn’t throw his hands often, but he has good one-twos. He will throw good jab, left hooks. He trusts in his chin & power, sitting down on hooks in the pocket. He will throw full power. He has nice rear uppercut, right hook combos. He was clipped with a big shot & put down after throwing multiple uppercuts in a row. He can fall in love with a punch when he sees it working & get predictable. Pilarte has great heart & recoverability, and opponents will have to put him out to stop him. He packs power himself and has two KO’s. He has never been finished.

Domingo Pilarte is going to be looking to bring this fight to the mat. He is a strong grappler, and his build gives him a big advantage due to his length. If he can get on top of the 5’5” Journey Newson, I imagine it will be very hard for Newson to stand up. Pilarte should also have an advantage in the clinch. In Newson’s fight with Benito Lopez, Lopez was able to finish him with clinch elbows. I have seen Pilarte throw similar elbows to the ones that finished him. In his match with Colares, he struggled with the physicality of Felipe in the clinch. He couldn’t get his back off the cage, was taken down with body locks, but showed good ability to get-up from bottom. He has a pretty good guard and will throw up armbars & triangles. Pilarte has a nasty kimura sweep he uses to counter takedowns. He will attack front chokes as well to counter takedowns. Pilarte has good double legs & chain wrestling against the cage. He shoots solid doubles at range as well but isn’t as effective with them. He will use the shots at range to push opponents to the cage. Pilarte is good at getting the tight waist & circling to the back. When he can get his hooks in or the body triangle, he is extremely hard to get away from. He has supreme control in the back mount, and a pretty solid rear naked choke. He was able to get a rear naked choke victory over UFC fighter Vince Morales on the DWCS. In his match with Felipe Colares, he had Colares’ back for almost the entirety of the third round but wasn’t able to get the submission. Pilarte has four career submissions. He probably will be looking to get one here vs Journey. Pilarte has good cardio & will be there for three rounds. He is definitely a finisher with six finishes in eight fights. When fights go to the scorecards he tends to fight very close. He is only 2-2 on the scorecards with three fights being split decision.

 

Journey Newson

Age: 30

Height: 5’5

Weight: 135

Reach: 67.5”

Gym: Impact Jiu-Jitsu

From: Oregon

UFC Record: 0-1

Fight Matrix: 213

Last Fought: 8 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: +110

 

Journey Newson is getting another stiff test in his second UFC appearance. He put up a good performance against Ricardo Ramos on short notice but lost a decision. Newson will look to earn his first victory in the octagon February 8th. Newson is an experienced fighter having fought the likes of Ricky Simon, Benito Lopez, & Ramos. He did lose to all three of those guys though, and his victories have come against mostly lower level opponents. Newson is light on his feet & explosive. He likes to bounce around on the outside and explode in with hooks & overhands. Newson has a nice, leaping left hook and nasty, overhand right. He has one shot power with that punch & has starched opponents. He has nice low kicks inside & outside. He throws some nice, lead leg sidekicks to the body & head. He can throw some spinning kicks at times. Journey Newson has very good head movement & is hard to hit. His style of moving & countering combined with the wrestling threat makes him a tricky guy to fight. He can close the distance at times without feinting his way in. Ricardo Ramos was able to land a nasty spinning back elbow & drop Newson, but he recovered very quickly. He has been finished by strikes just one time in his career. He was finished by Benito Lopez with big elbows against the cage & he kind of quit in that fight. He got hit with the shots & turtled up. Newson should be the better striker in this fight though.

Journey Newson is short, compact & quick. It makes him a good wrestler because his level changes are timed very well & fast. He will shoot singles & doubles. Newson can struggle to finish the takedowns in space, but he’s good at using the entry to get opponents to the cage where he’s a good chain wrestler. Newson really isn’t super dangerous in top position. He will work from inside opponent’s guards & work for control. Newson’s Jiu-Jitsu doesn’t look super high level. He can get caught in armbars, triangles & leg locks. He does a good job of defending, but it can mute his offense. He was able to survive when Ricardo Ramos took his back & had him in a tight guillotine. He was able to stand up from bottom in that fight multiple times pretty quickly, proving he is a very good scrambler. Newson hasn’t been submitted in his career yet. Newson will look for front chokes when opponents try to stand up & has one career rear naked chokes. He has three career submissions overall.

 

I think Pilarte has a lot of talent but in his last fight he really showed no aggressiveness and did nothing to earn a win. If he fights to his potential here I think he would be a bigger favorite and the better fighter everywhere. But if he fights like he did in his UFC debut, he probably losses another decision. I am going to chalk that up as UFC jitters and I will pick Pilarte to get the win here. I think he can get a KO or a sub, but I think he has a big edge on the mat and hopefully he does fight aggressive and look for takedowns.

On DraftKings, Pilarte is my preferred play. I think he can finish this fight on the feet or the ground and I like his mid-range price tag. I think he is playable in all formats this week, but I am worried about the lack of volume he threw in his first fight and if this fight is anything like that, then he won’t score well. I wouldn’t talk you out of fading him, but I do like him and will personally be overweight to the field. If I use Newson at all it would be purely a hedge to my Pilarte exposure and I doubt he would make more than 1 lineup out of my 10-20.

Winner – Domingo Pilarte via 2nd round Submission

 

Miles Johns $8,600 vs Mario Bautista $7,600

Miles Johns

Age: 25

Height: 5’7

Weight: 135

Reach: 68”

Gym: Fortis MMA

From: Texas

UFC Record: 1-0

Fight Matrix: 102

Last Fought: 5 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: 10-0

Betting Odds: -140

 

Fortis MMA product Miles Johns makes his second UFC start following a decision victory over Cole Smith. It was a hard-fought fight which Johns took via split decision. Miles Johns has a lot of hype behind him & is looking to climb the ranks quickly. He is the former LFA champion, undefeated at 10-0 and feels he’s ready to compete against anyone. On the feet, I really don’t think Johns is that good. He is athletic & powerful which does make him dangerous, though. Johns does have a nice step-in, power jab. He will throw some nice one-twos and jab, overhand rights. Johns can explode into some overhand & straight combinations looking for the kill. He doesn’t really have a lot of finesse and opponents can time him coming in. He will feint level changes to disguise what he’s going to do a bit. Johns can be low volume outside of the few blitz attacks in fights. In his last match, he showed that he didn’t have good footwork at all while going backwards & could get overwhelmed. Johns does have good power & fighters have to respect that & his speed in close range. If this was solely on the feet, I think Bautista has a sizable advantage. Johns is undefeated, so he has a lot of confidence to go along with his two career KO/TKO’s.

Miles Johns struggled with the grappling of Cole Smith in his UFC debut, but that is his bread & butter. Johns is a very good wrestler. He has big, explosive double leg slams. He is very good at getting in on single legs & pushing opponents to the cage. He will get high crotch slams against the cage. On top, he was able to overwhelm some low-level fighters with ground & pound, but he isn’t great on top. He doesn’t have the best top control & allows fighters to stand up from under him. When he’s on top, he doesn’t look to pass either & can be stagnant & stood up. Johns struggled fighting off the back foot in his last match. When he got backed towards the fence, Cole Smith was able to clinch up, get him down & get to the back. Smith had a lot of top control in the fight & it was a close decision. Johns is a good scrambler & usually can give his back to stand up, but he’s had his back taken in multiple fights. He stays cool & usually will turn in or work his way back to his feet never being subbed. Johns isn’t a big threat with submissions with just two in his career. Johns can get tired in fights, especially when he can’t get takedowns to rest & continue to get walked down. This is a step up for him & a big test for Johns. If he can win this matchup, he will prove maybe he can be a future contender.

 

Mario Bautista

Age: 26

Height: 5’9

Weight: 135

Reach: 69”

Gym: MMA Lab

From: Arizona

UFC Record: 1-1

Fight Matrix: 125

Last Fought: 7 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W1

Betting Odds: +120

 

Mario Bautista is another young upstart out of the MMA Lab. He suffered a loss in his UFC debut to top five contender Cory Sandhagen but bounced back with a win in his second fight. Bautista was an underdog going into that fight & ended up winning a dominant decision in a fight of the night performance. Bautista maybe doesn’t have the same hype as Miles Johns, but a win for him here would change that all around. Mario Bautista is light on his feet with good fakes & feints. Bautista utilizes a lot of movement & never stands in front of opponents. Bautista has a very nice, long jab & a good one-two. He will attack the body with punches. He has good head movement & will slip & rip in the pocket. He went to war in his last match sitting in the pocket, blocking & returning & battering Son. Bautista has very fast hands & although he can get wild & lose his defense at times, he’s extremely dangerous. Bautista has great kicks; Nice low kicks, heavy body kicks & nice round kicks to the head. He will throw front kicks & sidekicks to the body. He will throw one-two, head kick combinations, and his head kicks are definitely dangerous. I just feel that Bautista flows better & definitely throws more combinations. He throws a massive amount of volume & is going to be a handful on the feet for a lot of guys. Bautista has two KO/TKO finishes in 7 wins. Bautista has good defense, and a fighter’s spirit. You can tell he loves to fight & he’s never been finished by strikes yet.

Mario Bautista is a former standout high school wrestler with good Jiu-Jitsu skills. He showed some good ability in his fight with Cory Sandhagen but was ultimately caught in a submission. I definitely think that Bautista is the better fighter in terms of Jiu-Jitsu & scrambling ability. In his fight with Jin Soo Son he showed good clinch work and attacked with a nice standing kimura. He has creative elbows, shoulder strikes & nice knees in the clinch. Bautista showed great get-ups also and was never accepting bottom position against Son. Bautista has a nice double leg & will look for it at the end of rounds. He was able to pick up & slam Cory Sandhagen with a nice double. Bautista has a nasty front choke series. He has nice guillotines & darces. I haven’t seen much footage of Bautista in top position, but he does have one rear naked choke victory. Bautista has one submission loss to Cory Sandhagen via armbar. Mario Bautista has excellent cardio & pushes a sick pace. He needs to make Johns work & keep him guessing & on the back foot.

 

Johns will be the better wrestler here and the guy with more power on the feet. He should be looking for the KO while on the feet, but his smartest game plan should be to use his wrestling. Bautista is going to be the better striker though and the fighter throwing a lot more volume while on the feet. If he can stuff takedowns here, I think he is going to win this fight, but I do see Johns having some success with the wrestling, especially early. This is a close one to call but I think dog or pass either way, so I will take Bautista to win a close decision with his striking.

Bautista is one of my favorite underdogs on the card and my preferred DK option in this fight. I do think Bautista will be chalky this week, but I like the value we are getting at his price tag. He has the volume to pay this salary off in a win and I think he is very live for the win. I like him a lot for cash games but the ownership he might carry in GPPs worries me a bit. I likely will be in line with the field or overweight here, but this is by no means a must has fight or fighter. Johns will be a guy that should be low owned this week and he is the guy who will be looking to wrestle. I think he is in play in GPPs for that reason but at $8.6k, I wouldn’t want to trust him in cash games.

Winner – Mario Bautista via Split Decision

 

Alex Morono $9,100 vs Kalinn Williams $7,100

Alex Morono

Age: 29

Height: 5’11

Weight: 170

Reach: 72”

Gym: Fortis MMA

From: Texas

UFC Record: 6-2-1

Fight Matrix: 49

Last Fought: 4 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W3

Betting Odds: -300

 

Alex Morono is getting the opportunity to fight in his hometown following the best run of his UFC career. Since moving to Fortis MMA, Morono is 3-0. He was originally scheduled to face Dhiego Lima, but with Lima pulling out, Kalinn Williams, a UFC newcomer is stepping in. Alex Morono is a good striker. He has decent lateral movement & is light on his feet. He has a decent jab & left hook. He will throw a right hook lead. He likes to throw a jab, overhand right combination. Morono will throw looping overhand rights & jab, overhand rights. He has a solid head kick and a good, spinning heel kick. He dropped Max Griffin with a nasty high kick in his last match. He will throw nice front kicks to the body. He can get lazy throwing kicks sometimes and leave his chin in the air. He stands up very tall and is there to be leg kicked and taken down. He doesn’t throw in combination a lot, especially with his hands. He will try to dart in with one overhand right or throw a jab or spinning backfist, but he doesn’t put long combos together. His footwork and ability to cut guys off and keep a pace and high volume of strikes on him is probably his greatest strength. He wears guys down and can start to take over late. He hasn’t shown major power throughout his career but has 4 KO/TKO’s. He has a decent chin but has been KO/TKO’d twice in his career.

Alex Morono is a Jiu-Jitsu black belt & showed off some of his skills in his last match. Morono was taken down with a double leg but was able to lock in a guillotine, use it to reverse to mount & finish on top. Morono also locked in a nice guillotine vs Josh Burkman. Morono is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu, but he is not much of an offensive grappler. Morono is not a wrestler & will rarely go for offensive takedowns. He did attempt a double leg in his fight against Kenan Song, but has 0 UFC takedowns. His takedown defense is not good at all and he can be taken down very easily. He will wing shots wildly & opponents can easily duck under & take him down. He was taken down over & over by Jordan Mein and didn’t show much off his back. In his match with Zack Ottow, he did hit a nice guillotine move, rolled into mount & finished the fight. He has good guard retention & is hard to pass, but not dangerous. He will try to throw up armbars & triangles, but he isn’t fast with them. He does have a couple over his career. Even in his last match, he was taken down fairly easily by Max Griffin. He has 6 career submissions.

 

Kalinn Williams

Age: 25

Height: 6’0

Weight: 170

Reach: N/A

Gym: Murciélago MMA

From: Michigan

UFC Record: 0-0

Fight Matrix: 200

Last Fought: 3 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W6

Betting Odds: +250

 

Kalinn Williams will be getting the short notice opportunity in the UFC here. Williams is 9-1 and riding a five-fight win streak. He hasn’t faced very good competition, and this will be a big step up. Williams is a big, athletic fighter who comes to fight. He seems like a wild man. When he gets hit, he comes forward throwing wild shots to get it back. Williams does have a nice jab and will throw nice, double jab straight and overhand right combinations. Williams will crash the distance with straight or hook punches. He definitely looks like he has power. Williams will throw some decent low kicks. The downside to his striking is he’s very obvious in his actions. He uses very little feints, fakes & wings from the hip. He is also a bit stiff & can get countered with tighter, faster punches. He looks durable & will eat shots to give his own. He has never been finished by strikes. Williams has 4 KO/TKO’s including a 25 second knockout in his last match.

Kalinn Williams is an active grappler in fights. He likes to use his punch blitzes to crash into the clinch. He looks strong there & will work against the cage with short shots until he can find a takedown. In top position, Williams has good power if he can posture up & rain down shots but isn’t great with control or Jiu-Jitsu knowledge. He can be swept & doesn’t have good top control. I have seen him get caught in some near submissions against low level opponents. His defensive grappling, I have not seen tested much. Williams isn’t a very good grappler in my opinion though. I think he will be out of his depth if he chooses to grapple with a black belt like Morono. Williams isn’t a submission threat with just one guillotine victory in his career. Williams is a tough dude, but this is a big step up for him in a big spot.

 

There is no line on this fight as I type this, but I would guess Morono will be the 2-1 favorite with this being Williams UFC debut. From what I have seen, William is OK on the feet and I think the more dangerous striker of the two. He is sloppy though and throws wild hooks so Morono is probably the better all-around striker and I think he will be the guy with the edge on the mat. If Williams opens as a +250 or more underdog then I might have some interest in him as a bet, but from what I have seen so far, I will lean with Morono to get the win.

On DraftKings, Williams is actually my preferred play here because of their price tags. Williams is the more likely fighter to get an early KO IMO, and he is more likely to land takedowns as well. I just don’t see him doing anything with those takedowns and if he doesn’t get the early KO then he is probably in trouble and Morono could finish late. I just do not want to pay $9.1k for Morono when he has never landed a takedown and he doesn’t have a lot of KO power. I think he could finish this fight late and possibly get close to 10x here, but I don’t see me having much, if any exposure to him. Williams is a total boom or bust play, but I am interested in GPPs and I wouldn’t be shocked if he got a KO upset here.

Winner – Alex Morono via Unanimous Decision

 

Andrea Lee $8,500 vs Lauren Murphy $7,000

Andrea Lee

Age: 30

Height: 5’6

Weight: 125

Reach: 69.5”

Gym: Karate Mafia MMA

From: Louisiana

UFC Record: 3-1

Fight Matrix: 13

Last Fought: 5 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: -345

 

Andrea Lee is looking to bounce back after her first career UFC defeat. Lee was outlasted by JoJo Calderwood in a great fight in Abu Dhabi losing a decision. Lee is expected to get the win in this spot as she is close to her home of Louisiana & a sizable favorite. Andrea Lee has good head movement & distance control. She has a nice jab. She has a very nice left hook, straight-right hand combination. Lee mixes the target-up & will rip the body with jabs & big hook combinations. Lee will throw some inside, outside low kicks. Lee has nasty front kicks to the body as well. She will throw spinning back kicks & front leg sidekicks to the body. Lee has nice round kicks to the body with both legs. In her last match, she struggled with the volume striking & forward pressure of Joanne Calderwood. She ate a lot of body shots & slowed down big time in round three. Lee does have a good chin & can eat a lot of big shots. She’s never been finished in her career by strikes. Lee isn’t a big power hitter. She has just two KO/TKO’s in her career.

Andrea Lee is a beast for the division & extremely strong. She dominates in the clinch. She has nasty knees to the body & head and can just maneuver these girls around. She will land a lot of trip takedowns, and head & arm throws. She is very good at getting a tight waist, circling to the back & getting suplexes. She has great cardio & wears these girls out in the clinch. She has a very heavy top game. She likes to pressure pass to dominant positions. She likes to get the crucifix from side control & is a great back taker. She has excellent control there, even if she is high on the back she can readjust & flatten most opponents out. She will almost use a full nelson position to flatten opponents out. She is good at transiting from the back position to an armbar. She has big G&P from there & good rear naked chokes. She has strong takedown defense. She has a good sprawl, can pull her hips back quickly, and digs strong double underhooks. Lee will attack with triangles & armbars in her guard. She has good scrambling ability & is hard to hold down. She was taken down by a nice double leg takedown in her last match. She gives her back to stand up and she can give up position at times. She hasn’t had many issues with grapplers in a while & seems to have patched up that hole in her game. Lee has 4 submissions & been submitted one time.

 

Lauren Murphy

Age: 36

Height: 5’8

Weight: 125

Reach: 68”

Gym: MMA Lab

From: Arizona

UFC Record: 3-4

Fight Matrix: 17

Last Fought: 6 Months

Last Five: 2-3

Current Streak: W1

Betting Odds: +285

 

Lauren Murphy enters this spot with some momentum. She had a big result in her last match knocking out Mara Romero Borella as an underdog. Murphy has won two of three fights & will be looking to take advantage of the opportunity of fighting a big name in Lee. I really don’t rate Murphy’s striking very highly. She has slow feet, slow hands & is hittable as she plods into range. Murphy likes to throw a lot of left hook, straight-right hand combinations. She will throw the straight-right hand to the body also. Murphy will wing some overhands and uppercuts in close range. She timed a nice uppercut as her opponent went for a takedown that rocked her. Murphy will throw some occasional high kicks. In her last match, she stuffed a takedown, landed a knee to the head & got a knockout victory. Murphy is a finisher with 8 KO/TKO victories in 11 wins. She has won two of her three UFC fights by KO/TKO. Murphy is very hittable as she enters range, but durable. Fighters with fast hands & fast feet can hit & move on Murphy fairly easily. Murphy has decent head movement while closing distance, but in exchanges her hands are slow & she’s there to counter. In her fight with Sijara Eubanks she was hurt with some big punches. Murphy has never been finished by strikes.

Lauren Murphy is a good grappler & I imagine her looking to wrestle in this contest. Murphy isn’t the most proficient wrestler, but she actually has a fast, single leg shot. She will shoot doubles legs as well. Murphy is pretty good in top position. She will posture up & throw down heavy punches & elbows. Murphy looks to smash opponents faces in top instead of looking for the submissions. She has finished a majority of her matches with ground & pound. Lauren Murphy has good takedown defense & get-ups. She was able to compete in the grappling realm with Jiu-Jitsu black belt Sijara Eubanks. Lauren Murphy also had two takedowns against a very good grappler in Liz Carmouche. Lauren Murphy’s game off her back is pretty solid. She is very flexible & offensive with her guard. Murphy will attack triangles, omaplatas & gogoplatas, and the rubber guard. She will throw nice elbows off her back and stays active. Murphy will attack leg locks & has solid sweeps. Murphy has yet to get a submission in MMA. She has never been submitted. Murphy is someone who maybe isn’t the most talented but will bring it. She will come in shape, push for three rounds & never give up. Murphy gets 100% out of her capabilities.

 

I like Lee here quite a bit. I think she is the better fighter everywhere here and if she won her last fight, I think she would be even more of a favorite in this spot. She will be the one landing more volume and she is also more likely to get takedowns. I would be pretty surprised to see her lose in this spot.

I don’t love this fight for DraftKings, but Lee is still my preferred play there. I like her to get the win, but it will be hard for her to pay off $9.2k and her ceiling might be 10x here. She is in play in all formats, but I think Jones and Schevchenko are better cash games plays and there are fighters below her that are better GPP plays. I will take a shot or two on her because she should be low owned, and we never know how many strikes FightMetric will count as significant, but I think overall this is a decent fight to fade and I will have zero Murphy personally.

Winner – Andrea Lee via Unanimous Decision

 

Trevin Giles $8,500 vs Antonio Arroyo $7,700

Trevin Giles

Age: 27

Height: 6’0

Weight: 185

Reach: 74”

Gym: W4R Training Center

From: Texas

UFC Record: 2-2

Fight Matrix: 141

Last Fought: 6 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: L2

Betting Odds: -135

Trevin Giles enters his fifth UFC fight 2-2 on a two-fight losing streak. Giles took a step up in competition his last two outings & obviously wasn’t ready being finished by guillotines in both fights. The UFC obviously sees a lot in Giles, because even on a two-fight losing streak he signed a new four fight deal. Giles has to win here to prove his worth & get off to a good start in 2020. He will be facing a 0-1 UFC fighter in Antonio Arroyo. Giles has flashy striking & I think I kind of overrated it. Giles does have a very nice jab, is light on his feet & has good movement. He likes to stay long & work behind one-twos to the head and body. He will throw a really nice rear uppercut & left hook, straight-right combo as well. He has very fast hand speed, and controls distance well. The issue I have seen with Giles striking in his last two matchups though is he doesn’t like to exchange in the pocket. He holds his hands low & relies on using fast feet, potshotting & sliding in & out of range to avoid shots. Giles doesn’t go first a lot either & can be in low volume fights. He can be hard to hit, but if opponents can pressure & back him up or get in range where they can exchange, Giles usually will look to duck under for the clinch takedown. Even with a fighter like Gerald Meerschaert who isn’t a very dangerous striker, Giles instead of just sticking & moving decided to go for takedowns. I just think Giles knows he’s hittable & doesn’t have big faith in his chin. Giles is predominately someone who works the hands. He will throw some leg & body kicks when he loosens up & can hide them at the end of combinations, but not as much as he should. In his match with Zak Cummings, he got caught with a shot that put him down in round three. He is definitely hittable when opponents force him to exchange. Giles is not someone who looks for the knockout. He has 5 KO/TKO’s but mostly on the ground.

Trevin Giles is the superior grappler in this matchup, and recently has become a brown belt in Jiu-Jitsu. In Gile’s last match it was essentially a grappling affair. Giles likes to clinch up when opponents get to close to him & dump them with body locks and trips. He has solid double legs & thudding ground and pound. He will throw big shots from inside his opponent’s guard & can finish fights with hammerfists. He likes to move to side control & the crucifix position. He will force opponents to give their backs & then unload brutal shots from the wrestling ride position. He knocked James Bochnovic out extremely bad with G&P. He has solid top control & is good at being faster in scrambles. He will take the back in scrambles & lock in rear naked chokes. He has two rear naked chokes. He also has an arm triangle, armbar, and inverted triangle. He can keep a very high pace & really put a beating on opponents. He is excellent in top position. In his last match though, after getting takedowns, he was outsmarted on the ground. Meerschaert was allowing Giles to move into dominant positions like side control or the mount only to get sweeps. Gerald was able to hit multiple sweeps & have some top control of his own. Eventually he caught Giles in a guillotine & forced him to tap out. That’s now twice in a row he’s been submitted via guillotine. Giles is a rear naked choke guy with five submission victories.

 

Antonio Arroyo

Age: 30

Height: 6’2

Weight: 185

Reach: 73.5”

Gym: Marajó Brothers Team

From: Brazil

UFC Record: 0-1

Fight Matrix: 164

Last Fought: 3 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: +115

 

Antonio Arroyo will be looking for a better outing in his second UFC fight. He dropped his first fight by decision to grappling specialist André Muniz. Arroyo is getting a better matchup here as he faces a fellow striker. He is more of a mover & fights long. He is super athletic & is fast in & out. He has a wide, hands down stance. Antonio Arroyo’s boxing is only okay. He said he has been working on it specifically for this fight. He does have fast hand speed & fluid combos. He will work off his lead hand with the jab & left hook while mixing in one-twos, and hard right hooks or overhands. Arroyo can hold his hands low & get hit over the top with punches inside. When fighters smother his kicks, he will back up towards the cage & stand tall. He has great kicks; Nasty leg kicks, very fast body & head kicks along with spinning & jumping kicks. I would say he has some of the best kicking technique in the UFC. In this matchup, I am not sure he will be able to work his kicks the same way he usually does against a ground specialist. Arroyo is very explosive with speed & power & could catch & KO Giles. He has 4 career KO/TKO’s.

Antonio Arroyo had his grappling a bit exposed in his last match. He has been making strides on his wrestling & submission defense but showed poor fight IQ vs Muniz. He was staying in spots too long when he didn’t need to be and didn’t show that sense of urgency to get away and back to striking range. Arroyo was taken down three times by Muniz & threatened with some pretty deep submission attempts. Arroyo has steadily improved his takedown defense, and early on he is very hard to takedown. He was able to reverse a takedown & take top position against Andre Muniz in round one but was quickly put in a deep armbar he ultimately survived. Arroyo was able to survive a back take and mount from Muniz & even scrambled back to his feet when mounted. Arroyo struggled with the leg attacks of Muniz as he was able to keep him on the ground with them when Arroyo was scrambling & trying to sweep. Arroyo also was obliging Muniz & going down into his guard which was a big mistake. Arroyo has improved his takedowns, he has nice double legs and very good foot sweeps. He has four submissions himself. Arroyo has been submitted twice. In that fight Arroyo gassed out badly and needs to work on his cardio.

 

This is a close one. Both guys are dangerous on the feet and either could get KO’d here. I don’t have any real lean on who is going to win the majority of striking exchanges here, but I like Giles to get the win if he works in takedowns. He could get a GNP TKO or a submission on the ground, but he could also use takedowns to steal close rounds as well.

I have a bit of interest in both sides of this fight and it is a -125 FDGTD line. My preferred play is going to be Giles because he is more likely to get takedowns here. I also think he could finish with a sub or a GNP finish. I just am not confident he scores high or even gets the win, so I will probably be in line with the field or even a bit underweight. Arroyo is in play for the KO upset as well and I don’t see him being highly owned. I want a couple shots on him for that reason but again I might be about in line with the field. I would guess I have about 25% Giles and 15% Arroyo here, but I don’t love trusting either in cash games.

Winner – Trevin Giles via 2nd round Submission

 

Derrick Lewis $9,000 vs Ilir Latifi $7,200

Derrick Lewis

Age: 35

Height: 6’3

Weight: 265

Reach: 79”

Gym: Silverback Fight Club

From: Texas

UFC Record: 13-5

Fight Matrix: 5

Last Fought: 3 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: W1

Betting Odds: -245

 

Derrick Lewis is making a quick turnaround about three months after his victory over Blagoy Ivanov. Lewis is fighting in his hometown of Houston, Texas & as always will be hunting for the knockout. Lewis came into the Ivanov fight in the best shape of his career noticeably fitter & wants another opportunity at the UFC strap. Lewis will be welcoming Ilir Latifi to the HW division. Lewis is a pretty good boxer and can close the distance with powerful combinations. He is very explosive for someone his size and can close the distance extremely quickly. Lewis has a similar style to that of Yoel Romero in terms of fighting in spots. He will be very inactive and look like he is not doing much on the feet at all, and then explode in with a powerful blitz attack and finish the fight. He has a decent jab and a very good right hook. He likes to counter with a right hook in the pocket and does a good job of moving his head off center line and landing while making opponents miss. He is very good in the dirty boxing range and has nice, short hooks and uppercuts and can generate knockout power in incredibly short distances. He is surprisingly athletic for a fighter his size and shows that with his bountiful kicking game. He will use an array of kicks, ranging from the front kick to the body to a switch kick to the head. He can sometimes throw the high kick blind, but it is extremely powerful, and his opponents are forced to respect and block it. Lewis will slam the kick into his opponent’s arms, and if he can knock them off balance, he will explode with a punching combination. Lewis has no problem getting in the pocket and throwing down with fighters and will bite down on the mouth piece and go to war. He is a tough guy and some people say he is a quitter or mentally weak, but I completely disagree. Lewis has been finished by strikes 3 times, but he has a pretty good chin, and the ability to take shots. He is susceptible to body shots but is tough and will battle through it. The bottom line is you always have to be careful with the “Black Beast”. He is the definition of a knockout artist with 16 KO/TKO’s to his name.

Derrick Lewis is an underrated grappler. He is good in the clinch, does a great job of getting underhooks and digging with big knees to the body, he did this very effectively against Roy Nelson. He is also extremely dangerous in the dirty boxing realm, he can generate power in his short hooks and uppercuts that is not normal, and have fighters twitching on the canvas. He will shoot for takedowns. He likes to get double legs against the cage and will occasionally try to get a body lock takedown. He does a good job of defending takedowns, reversing and getting on top himself as well. Lewis has some of the best G&P in the history of MMA, it is absolutely devastating. He will throw huge hammerfists and elbows, and if he can pass his opponent’s guard into mount the fight is as good as over. He is extremely heavy and almost impossible to get-up from under. If he gets on top of Ivanov, or anyone for that matter, they are in serious trouble. Off his back he isn’t dangerous, but he has an uncanny ability to just stand up when he wants to. He will just belly down, give his back and stand right up. Most fighters haven’t been able to take his back and or stop him from disengaging the clinch when he stands up, proving just how physically strong Lewis is. He was made to pay for that in his match vs DC getting submitted by rear naked choke. Derrick Lewis has struggled with cardio himself, but still has a lot of late finishes.

 

Ilir Latifi

Age: 36

Height: 5’8

Weight: 205(HW Debut)

Reach: 75”

Gym: Allstars Training Center

From: Sweden

UFC Record: 7-5

Fight Matrix: 22

Last Fought: 6 Months

Last Five: 2-3

Current Streak: L2

Betting Odds: +205

 

Ilir Latifi is looking for a new lease on life. He has lost back to back fights at LHW, getting finished in his last match. Latifi has decided to try to move up to HW & isn’t getting an easy task in his debut. He is fighting one of the biggest, hardest hitters in the division in Derrick Lewis. Latifi is only 5’8” & it’s going to be interesting to see how he navigates fighting these bigger guys. At 36 years old this seems like it could be a make or break fight for Latifi’s career going forward. Ilir Latifi is an explosive wrestler with one punch knockout power. Latifi likes to stay light on his feet, bounce on his toes, move on the outside, and looks to explode into an overhand right or takedown attempts. He has very heavy low kicks as well. He has a very powerful overhand right and can finish the fight with that shot. He has very quick hands and will let go with a counter left hook, overhand right combo in the pocket, and is accurate with counters. He does a great job of catching kicks & returning with punches. Latifi has powerful body kicks when he throws them. He is very quick closing the distance with straight punches, and lands nice uppercuts in close. When he wants to Latifi will just bull forward with punches into the clinch and really force a grappling match. Latifi struggles with fighters who are longer than him & can keep him at kicking range. He was very low output and allowed Volkan to control the center & walk him down on the feet. He showed very poor cardio & defense and was ultimately taken out by strikes. Latifi’s chin is a question mark these days. He has 5 KO/TKO’s in his career and has been KO/TKO’d 4 times.

Latifi is a very strong wrestler, and one of the best grapplers in the division. He does a great job of using overhands to explode in & then will get into the body lock clinch. He does a great job of pushing and controlling opponents against the cage while looking for singles & double legs. When he gets his hands clasped, his opponents are most likely going for a ride. He has great slams on his singles & doubles and will drive through on body locks. He will fake the overhand into a single leg entry where he does a great job of finishing. On top, he has big ground & pound from guard, and likes to move into half guard & side control where he can land heavy shots. He likes to attack with north south chokes, but he doesn’t have great control from that area and fighters are able to return to their feet against him. He does a good job of controlling an opponent’s wrist from half guard, and landing ground & pound when they can’t defend themselves. He has to stay inside guard or in half guard, do not try to go to mount or side control vs Lewis where he can explode. Daniel Cormier stated Latifi is one of the strongest grapplers he has ever felt, and very difficult to takedown. He got a nice standing guillotine against OSP and choked him unconscious. It was more due to hurting OSP before than being good in BJJ. He has 5 submissions and has never been submitted himself.

 

Latifi is making the jump to Heavyweight here and fighting one of the biggest guys in the division. He is going to be a lot smaller and will be at a 6-inch reach advantage. However, he is more likely to get takedowns here and if neither guy gets knocked out then it will probably be close in the striking department based on the volume these guys throw. I do think Lewis is more likely for the knockout though and I think he is probably going to be the one landing more shots as well. I am going to take Lewis here, but this is a total dog or pass fight for me on the betting line.

I think this is Lewis or pass for me. Lewis has one of the highest ITD lines on the card at -130 and I could def see him knocking Latifi out at some point. However, he probably won’t go for any takedowns and he doesn’t throw any volume on the feet, so we are purely relying on the KO if we are rostering him. I will be underweight myself but I will take a shot or two on him for that early KO potential. Latifi will be a pass for me just because he doesn’t throw volume himself and I don’t see him landing many takedowns. Even if he wins I doubt he would score much so I would need over 20 lineups before I thought about using him here.

Winner – Derrick Lewis via 3rd round (T)KO

 

Mirsad Bektic $8,300 vs Dan Ige $7,900

Mirsad Bektic

Age: 28

Height: 5’8

Weight: 145

Reach: 70”

Gym: Tristar Gym

From: Bosnia

UFC Record: 6-2

Fight Matrix: 27

Last Fought: 7 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: -135

 

Mirsad Bektic’s career hasn’t quite panned out as expected. The once highly touted prospect has struggled to find consistency over his UFC career. He was finished very quickly in his last match & his chin is definitely questionable at this point. At 28 years old Bektic still has a chance to turn it around, but he can’t afford to drop back to back fights. Bektic is athletic, has good movement and very technically sound striking. He has very nice in & out movement with solid hand & foot speed. He walks opponents down & likes to be the fighter going forward. He will work off the jab & has a nice one-two combination. He will throw jab, right hooks or jab, overhand rights if he is in close range. He will attack the body occasionally with the one-two. He likes to throw round kicks to the body & legs. He doesn’t throw them super often, but when they connect they’re powerful. When he is pressured, he looks very uncomfortable. Even if he has a massive speed advantage & winning the striking, he doesn’t look fluid at times. When opponents close the distance on him, he can tend to lean back instead of moving his feet along with forcing takedown attempts. Most of the time he can bail himself out with the takedowns, but he leaves himself vulnerable to counters along with gassing out. Bektic needs to get a few things on the feet he knows will be effective & just work those. He has to show growth & more comfortability on the feet. Bektic has 6 KO/TKO’s & definitely packs power. He has only been finished twice by KO but has a questionable chin. He doesn’t take shots well & that could be part of his issues with the standup. He was dropped by a jab against Josh Emmett his last match. Hopefully he is confident coming in here.

Mirsad Bektic is one of the best grapplers in the division. He is extremely physical and has excellent explosiveness. He sets his shots up well with punches & has great blast double legs. He will drive through on singles also, along with working for cage control. He will jam opponents against the fence and go to work from there landing short shots & winning the round. He was able to control Ricardo Lamas against the cage for large portions of his last fight. When he gets on top, he is excellent. He has strong top control & likes to get to half guard or side control where he will posture up & do damage. He has nasty ground & pound and will really batter opponents. We saw that when he put a beating from top position on Darren Elkins. He will look to take the back & has two career rear naked chokes. Bektic has 3 career submissions, but one was due to punches. He has never been finished by submission. Bektic can force the wrestling too much at times, putting himself in positions to potentially be submitted or get tired. When he fought Elkins, he let out so much output that he gassed himself out & in round 3 Elkins took him out. Bektic’s takedown defense is straight nasty. He has some of the fastest hips I’ve seen & 100% takedown defense. Bektic needs to start fixing up some of these parts of his game as he gets older now. He has all the technical skills & athleticism it’s all up to game plan & mentality now. He is training at Tristar which should help with that. If Bektic mixes it up & plays his game, he could potentially beat anyone in the division.

 

Dan Ige

Age: 28

Height: 5’7

Weight: 145

Reach: 71”

Gym: Xtreme Couture

From: Hawaii

UFC Record: 4-1

Fight Matrix: 33

Last Fought: 8 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W4

Betting Odds: +115

 

Dan Ige has been on a hell of a run of late. Ige has won four consecutive UFC fights & is breaking into the upper echelon of the division with this matchup against Bektic. Ige has been rounding out his game & improving with every fight. He definitely is the fighter in better form currently with the stronger mindset. There have always been questions about Bektic’s toughness, that has never been there with a guy like Dan Ige. Ige is a solid striker. He likes to slowly plod forward and put pressure on opponents. He has a good jab & decent leg kicks. He likes to use the pressure to draw out shots & counter. He has a very nice counter straight-right hand & left hook. He will counter with left hook, straight-right hand combinations as well. He will try to catch opponents with big winging hooks & overhands. He will counter with big hook & uppercut combinations. Ige has tightened up his punches in the pocket & throws very tight, short hooks now. His left hook that put down Kevin Aguilar was a thing of beauty. He starts very fast early & can overwhelm people in the beginning by just being ready to fight. If a fighter closes the distance recklessly or stands in front of him, he can crack & that’s where he’s most dangerous. Against fighters with good movement who can land & get out, he also has issues. Julio Arce was using feints & forward pressure to make Ige go first & then piecing him up on the counter. Ige will wing big shots from way too far out and will just walk into big punches & kicks. Fighters who can stay long, throw straight down the middle & angle are going to most likely beat him. Ige does have a strong chin & is a scrappy Hawaiian. He won’t quit in there, and fighters will have to put him out. He’s never been finished by strikes. He has 3 KO/TKO’s.

Ige is a tremendous grappler. He is a strong wrestler with a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu. He has a crushing top game & is a finisher in top position. He has good double legs and good body clinch takedowns. He will elevate on double legs & move directly into side control. He moves quickly to the mount and will take the back and land brutal ground & pound. He does a great job of flattening opponents out & has great control. He can get too over aggressive trying to take the back & get reversed. He also can get too high in the guard & get shucked off. Off his back, he will look to get wrist control & look for triangles. He will attack in his guard. He will try to roll for leg locks. He doesn’t do the best at controlling posture & Jordan Griffin was able to land some big shots from inside his guard. He is good in the scrambles though, and when both fighters were gassed in round 3 he gutted it out. Ige has been able to hit takedowns & control in all his decision victories in the UFC. Ige has 5 career submissions. He does have questionable cardio especially when he’s forced to stand up, but his cardio is probably as good if not better than Bektic’s. Ige will be ready to go & be pumped up for this opportunity.

 

This is a good one between two really good grapplers. I think Bektic is the better wrestler here but Ige the more dangerous grappler. I think Bektic will have more power on the feet as well but Ige probably throws more volume and is probably the better all-around striker. I think this fight will be close, but I see Bektic being the fighter who lands takedowns and he could finish with GNP. If this fight stays standing, which I doubt it will, I would say Ige most likely wins a decision unless he gets KO’d. I will lean with Bektic though because I think he can win 2 rounds with his wrestling and I don’t see Ige having much success getting Bektic on his back.

I do like this fight because it is in the mid-range and either guy could pay off their salary with even a decision win. My preferred play here is Bektic because he is the better wrestler and should be the guy fighting at a higher pace, especially early. I think he is live for a 1st round GNP finish here and maybe lands multiple takedowns in the process. I do think Ige wins most striking exchanges and if he can tire Bektic out then maybe he can have success with grappling late and possibly get a finish. Bektic can be a bit chinny as well so maybe he lands something heavy on the feet and puts him away there. I will be getting exposure to both sides of this fight, but my guess is that I will be overweight to Bektic and underweight to Ige who might be a popular underdog this week.

Winner – Mirsad Bektic via Unanimous Decision

 

Juan Adams $8,800 vs Justin Tafa $7,400

Juan Adams

Age: 28

Height: 6’5

Weight: 266

Reach: 81”

Gym: Jackson-Wink MMA

From: Texas

UFC Record: 2-2

Fight Matrix: 173

Last Fought: 7 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: L2

Betting Odds: -245

 

Juan Adams has his back against the wall here. He has lost consecutive fights & was finished by Greg Hardy in embarrassing fashion. Adams has made some wholesale changes going into this fight. He has moved his camp to Jackson-Wink MMA, has completely changed his diet & is looking to finally start living like a professional athlete. Adams is fighting in his hometown of Houston, Texas & has to have a lot of motivation coming in here. Adams has good hand speed, and a nice jab. He will throw inside, outside leg kicks & he needs to be very aggressive with those in this matchup. He will throw a jab, right hook combination. He has a long reach & will close the distance with straight punch combinations. He has no regard for his opponent’s power and doesn’t move his head at all. He was getting tagged with clean shots consistently in his UFC debut, but De La Rocha just didn’t have the power to hurt him. He did gas out badly in the second round & allowed De La Rocha to walk him down and land some big shots. De La Rocha was exhausted as well & couldn’t capitalize. Adams does keep a crazy pace, especially for a HW. He finished Chris De La Rocha with 15 consecutive unanswered shots. In his last match, he was TKO’d for the first time in his career. He wasn’t doing too bad against Greg Hardy on the feet, but he shot in on a single leg, held on & was bizarrely pounded out. Adams then subsequently freaked out, left the octagon, threw his mouthpiece into the stands and was irate. He wasn’t hurt badly but it was a good stoppage. We will have to see how he bounces back from that mentally. Adams has 5 KO/TKO’s in 5 wins.

Juan Adams looks to be a very strong grappler, and just physically manhandles opponents. He will throw big knees to the body in the clinch. He was able to easily takedown Chris De La Rocha with a body lock & landed some nasty G&P. He took him down by just throwing him down after getting a front head lock position & just seemed to be able to take him down with ease whenever he wanted. He will posture up from half guard & land big shots. He will throw big hammerfists & elbows. He is very agile & athletic for his size & can scramble very well. He was out grappled in his match with Arvan Bhullar, but he will work his grappling here. He has to be disappointed in just sitting on a single leg in his last match. Expect Adams to try to get it to the mat.

 

Justin Tafa

Age: 26

Height: 6’0

Weight: 265

Reach: 74”

Gym: Tiger Muay Thai

From: Australia

UFC Record: 0-1

Fight Matrix: NR

Last Fought: 4 Months

Last Five: 3-1

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: +205

 

Justin Tafa had a rude welcoming to the UFC octagon. He was knocked out brutally by Yorgan De Castro in the first round. Tafa has a record of just 3-1, & a loss here would almost certainly lead to being cut. Tafa has been training at Tiger Muay Thai for this camp & is getting good training.  Tafa is a southpaw. On the feet, Tafa is just a brawler. He has a decent straight & overhand left. If he lands the left hand, it’s almost a range finder for him to come in with hook combos. He will try to back opponents up & force opponents to trade powerful hooks in the pocket. Tafa will also throw really nice uppercuts & nasty right hooks to the body. Tafa has a nice body & head kick along with a left hook he will occasionally throw. Tafa is not very fast & in his debut he struggled with the speed & movement of his opponent, so he did a lot of grappling. When he gets hit he can freeze up. Tafa overextends a lot when he throws, leaving himself really open to counters. In his UFC debut he ran in with his hands low looking to wing a shot & got caught with a tighter punch & knocked out cold. Tafa has finished all 3 wins by KO/TKO.

Justin Tafa showed off some grappling in his MMA debut. In his last two matches there has been no grappling at all. He landed a sloppy single leg takedown. Tafa also showed decent clinch takedowns. In his UFC debut he had a short period of clinch control where he landed some knees. Tafa will use the clinch takedowns to land directly in side control & quickly take the mount. He has sloppy mount control & doesn’t look like a very good scrambler, but he will rain down shots & try to finish the fight. He finished his debut with ground & pound from the mount. Tafa just has sloppy top control overall & can get swept. He was swept several times by a low-level opponent & mounted. Tafa is good at moving off his back, getting underhooks & getting back up. If he is taken down by a good wrestler, I feel he will get smashed most likely. Tafa’s cardio held up into the second round in that match with a lot of wrestling. At 25 years old he should look better time in time out.

 

Both guys are coming off very early knockout losses in their last fights. However, Tafa was knocked out cold only 4 months ago and I think that is way too soon for a heavyweight to return to action. Neither guy has shown to be very good, but Adams looks like he has potential and more ways to win this fight. He doesn’t throw with real heavy power, but it might not take much to turn off the lights for Tafa again after that short layoff. I will take Adams here, but I don’t like his betting line and Tafa does have the power to knock him out as well. This will be a stay away for me.

This is a decent fight for GPPs and Adams might be a core play for me here. I think he could get a KO on the feet and he will be the guy looking for takedowns. If he can get them then he might get a GNP win and that could come in round 1. He has a -135 ITD line which is the highest on the card and Tafa won’t have anything for him off his back. I am very interested in Adams for DK, but I am not confident he gets the win, so it won’t be an all-in spot at all for me. I also want a Tafa LU or two as a hedge to my possible overexposure to Adams in case he gets the early KO himself.

Winner – Juan Adams via 1st round (T)KO

 

Valentina Schevchenko $9,500 vs Katlyn Chookagian $6,700

Valentina Shevchenko

Age: 31

Height: 5’5

Weight: 125

Reach: 65.5”

Gym: Tiger Muay Thai

From: Kyrgyzstan

UFC Record: 7-2

Fight Matrix: 1

Last Fought: 6 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W4

Betting Odds: -1100

 

Valentina Shevchenko look to continue her assault on the WFLW division as she enters her third title defense. Shevchenko has yet to lose a round at FLW & looks very much unbeatable. She is a -1100 favorite in this fight, which just shows how she’s head & shoulders above the competition. Valentina is one of the best female Muay Thai strikers on the planet. She has a record of 56-2 as a pro Muay Thai competitor and has transferred that style nicely to MMA. She is a phenomenal counter striker; her lead left check hook is a thing of beauty. She does a great job of landing a straight-right hand to a left hook combination. She uses kicks to the legs and the body, and then will catch opponents sleeping and counter them with a perfect spinning backfist. She will throw a superman punch to a leg kick combination. She likes to throw the right hook to setup her straight-left and bing fighters with it. She likes to use a spinning back kick to move backwards. In Muay Thai, she has a lot of knockdowns with that technique. Her awareness of distance to return with a counter shot is second to none. She will slip and land hard overhands. She is always balanced and never puts herself out of position. She has strong and solid leg kicks. She exits out of danger after combinations super smooth. She does a good job of moving her head off the center line and not getting hit cleanly much. When she gets confidence, she will start to really walk opponents down and get them to open up with shots she can slip and counter. She was dropped by a fake jab, uppercut by Holly Holm. Valentina is not a one-shot striker either in terms of power, but I do feel she has more power in her strikes in this matchup. She has 5 TKO’s in her career and was finished one time by TKO by Liz Carmouche due to a cut.

Valentina is a great grappler. She has good clinch entries, where she will get good head position and land hard elbows and knees. She is very strong in this position, and wears opponents out. She has nice hip tosses and trips in the clinch as well and is a good wrestler. She will shoot for single legs in open space, and she has a nice snatch single. She was able to set up an easy double leg with punches against Cachoeira and displayed some vicious ground & pound. She was able to get good posture in the guard and rain down nasty elbows and punches to the body & head. She really bludgeoned Cachoeira and it was hard to watch. She was able to get the crucifix position and mount, landing a huge amount of ground & pound before getting the rear naked choke. She was able to get nice body lock & hip toss takedowns against Joanna. In her last match, she defended all the takedowns of top level wrestler Liz Carmouche & out grappled her. Valentina has also submitted high level grapplers such as Juliana Pena. Shevchenko has seven submissions in her career.

 

Katlyn Chookagian

Age: 31

Height: 5’9

Weight: 125

Reach: 66”

Gym: Nick Catone’s MMA

From: New Jersey

UFC Record: 6-2

Fight Matrix: 2

Last Fought: 3 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W2

Betting Odds: +700

 

Katlyn Chookagian will be looking to flip the script at UFC 247. As of now everyone sees her as the next pig being lead to slaughter. Chookagian is a +700 underdog & no one is giving her much of a chance at all. Chookagian is in a much bigger spot than she’s ever been in her career. Chookagian has eight UFC fights & none have even been on the main card much less the co main event. Her style has had the UFC weary of showcasing her, but she will be undeniable if she can dethrone the queen, Valentina Shevchenko. Chookagian is a good striker with a point fighting style. She has a nice jab, and she will double and triple up on it. She will follow the jab up with a straight-right hand, leg kick combination, and has very fluid kicks with her lead leg. She has nice a nice front kick, and sidekick to the body along with a fast-high kick. She will throw question mark kicks and hook kicks as well with her lead leg. She has good overhand lefts and rights in close range and will sit down and throw with power. She has a nice left hook, straight-right hand to the body. She will throw hooks to the body also and has nice rear uppercuts. She is good at catching kicks and returning with shots, and she is good defensively. She has good footwork and lateral movement and keeps a high volume of shots out there. Her left knee and high kick are her most dangerous attacks, she dropped Liz Carmouche with a head kick. Katlyn has also sat down on her punches putting more power on them recently. She has two knockouts in her career, and never been finished.

Chookagian is a Renzo Gracie brown belt, and well versed on the mat. She has good duck unders for double legs and is strong in the clinch with knees. She is good at landing hard knees to the body and disengaging when fighters try to clinch with her, and she has good takedown defense.  When she does get taken down, she will attack with triangles and armbars and has a decent get-up game. She does have two submissions in her career with one being an armbar. Her armbars look very fast & she sets them up well. On top, she has good control, and will win rounds through top position. In this fight I do see Chookagian looking to get it to the mat if it’s close on the feet. Chookagian has just one career submission. She has good cardio and will be ready to go.

 

This should be domination on Valentina’s part. She is the better fighter everywhere and as long as they don’t both just dance around the cage throwing similar volume for 25-minutes, I don’t see how she loses this fight. At this betting line there isn’t any real reason to play Valentina though. Crazy things happen and maybe she gets a bad injury early in the fight or something else that could result in a possible loss from her, but other than that I would be shocked if she lost this fight.

This is a fight I will be fading for the most part. I think Schevchenko is a fine cash game play since she is the safest win on the card, but I don’t see her scoring highly and I for GPPs I don’t see her putting up 100+ and ending up on the optimal lineup. I think these girls dance around the cage a lot and maybe she puts up ~80-points in a win here. I think she will need a finish here to score highly and I don’t see that happening. I might full fade her with my GPP lineups and Chookagian is an easy fade altogether for me.

Winner – Valentina Schevchenko via Unanimous Decision

 

Jon Jones $9,400 vs Dominick Reyes $6,800

Jon Jones

Age: 32

Height: 6’4

Weight: 205

Reach: 84.5”

Gym: Jackson Wink MMA

From: New Mexico

UFC Record: 19-1-1

Fight Matrix: 1

Last Fought: 7 Months

Last Five: 4-0-1

Current Streak: W3

Betting Odds: -440

 

Jon Jones will be defending his UFC LHW belt for the third time in his third reign as champion. Jones has never lost the belt but has been stripped twice due to failed drug tests. Jones is 14-0 in UFC title fights if you include his NC over Daniel Cormier as a victory. He enters once again as a sizable favorite against challenger Dominick Reyes. Jon Jones is a great kicker and uses his reach fantastically. He throws leg & oblique kicks to the knees, and front kicks & teips to the body. The oblique kicks to the knees breaks the rhythm of his opponents and makes it hard to get their game going. Jones has a decent jab and good overhand right and check left hook. His left hook is very effective. He prefers to land shorter combinations in exchanges rather than get in extended combinations. Jones always has head lead arm extended to keep range and is notorious for poking fighters in the eyes because of this. He likes to control one wrist and come over the top with elbows and is very good in close range as well. He will throw nasty spinning elbows, and front elbows, and he possibly has the best elbows in the game. Jones has nasty head kicks from southpaw with little to no tell and can get them up to the target quickly. He pelted Gustafsson with many head kicks in their first match and finished Daniel Cormier with a head kick. His boxing looked much improved vs Gustafsson and he only continues to get better. He did coast a little vs Anthony Smith, but it was a dominant win. In his match with Thiago Santos, he took some overhands & ate some shots on blitz attacks from Santos. Santos had success throwing low kicks as well. Jones has never been known as a big power puncher, but he has 10 KO/TKO’s on his record, and a hell of chin. He has never even been dropped in a fight.

Jon Jones is phenomenal in the clinch. He has nasty front elbows, and elbows over the top from the single collar clinch, and he breaks the clinch with a nasty spinning back elbow. He has nasty uppercuts in the clinch, and strong knees to the body & head. He wears fighters out in the clinch and has great cardio. He will use what some people call a dirty technique, where he wrenches on his opponent’s shoulders. He was able to pull Teixeria’s shoulder out of socket and severally diminished him for the remainder of their fight. He is an incredible MMA wrestler. Jones likes to back opponents to the fence where he has a strong double leg takedown. He has good inside trips in the clinch, and strong body locks. He has a good single leg as well and does a good job of chaining his takedowns together until he can find the takedown. On top, Jones has some of the best G&P in MMA history. He has vicious elbows, he can smash opponents with elbows even from the full guard. He was able to batter Gustafsson from mount before Gustafsson gave the back & Jones finished the fight. He likes to get the crucifix and throw nasty elbows, and he also has a great mount. He has been doing a lot of BJJ lately, and he has rounded out that part of his game as well. He has a nasty guillotine choke & he can get it from standing position such as vs Lyoto Machida. His arms will help him in setting up chokes on the ground, and I see him trying to get this fight to the mat quickly. Jones has 6 career submissions & has never been submitted himself.

 

Dominick Reyes

Age: 30

Height: 6’4

Weight: 205

Reach: 77”

Gym: Dan Hendo’s Fitness Center

From: California

UFC Record: 6-0

Fight Matrix: 9

Last Fought: 4 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W12

Betting Odds: +350

 

Dominick Reyes is a confident undefeated challenger. He will be looking to etch his name in the history books as the man who dethroned Jon Jones. Reyes has gone 6-0 in the UFC to earn this opportunity most recently dispatching of former UFC world champion Chris Weidman in less than two minutes. Reyes is a big, athletic fighter who does pose some problems for Jones. He is one of the bigger fighters Jones has faced, along with being one of the most athletic. Reyes is a dynamic athlete with knockout power & well-rounded skills. Reyes has great lateral footwork & head movement. He will work behind a lot of feints & fakes. He will start off landing a nice jab & then fake the jab & come with the straight-right hand. He will throw jab, left hook combo. He also likes to throw a lead uppercut, straight-right. He will throw a left hook, straight-right hand to the body. He will slip a punch in the pocket, quickly load up and return with a powerful uppercut. He attacks the body nicely with round kicks, especially when opponents are trying to circle off the cage or at the end of combinations. Reyes does a great job of utilizing angles. He can find that straight-left hand moving backwards laterally or forwards. He will go high with the kick as well & has very fast kicks. When he gets opponents backed against the cage, he does an amazing job of keeping them there. He has great shot selection & will stay long but keep the volume high with jabs, straights, overhands & uppercuts. He has 6 KO/TKO’s all in round one & has shown big power. In his fight with Volkan Oezdemir, Oezdemir was able to take his power, and walk him down which caused Reyes issues. Reyes looked uncomfortable under the pressure at times & ate some big shots. He gave up the cage too much & has to control the cage better vs Jones.

Reyes is an above average grappler. He showed a nice clinch game in his fight with OSP.  He was able to land some nice knees & control OSP against the cage. He also did a great job of making OSP pay for takedown attempts. He landed brutal elbows to the side of the head & nice hammerfists. He does a great job of controlling a wrist & throwing nice hooks & uppercuts to counter the takedown attempts. He does a great job of throwing strikes off the break. Reyes has good get-ups & is hard to hold down. Getting takedowns on Reyes can just tire his opponents out at times because he just gets up quickly. In his last match, Volkan Oezdemir did knock him down with a leg kick & control on top for a short period. He also took down Reyes with a double leg in round one and had some top control time. Reyes was taken down early by Weidman but got up quickly and showed nice defense. Reyes has shot single legs, but he doesn’t look for many takedowns. I don’t expect him to shoot any in this matchup. Reyes has done well in some IBJIF competitions, so he has shown some competency in Jiu-Jitsu realm. He was able to get a rear naked choke against Jeremy Kimball. His cardio waned a bit against OSP & Volkan Oezdemir. In this fight he has to have the cardio to move & kick like he likes to for five rounds. Reyes has two career submissions.

 

Jon Jones is the greatest fighter to ever live, in my opinion, and I think he wins this fight everywhere. In his last fight, he was way too inactive and that gives me some worry here against Reyes. However, if Jones fights with a smart game plan I think this betting line is warranted and he could dominate if he decided to look for takedowns. Reyes’ path to victory is a knockout, or Jones being inactive and this coming down to a close 5-round decision after 25-minutes of striking. Hopefully Jones does look for takedowns in this match and if that is the case then I don’t see this going to the scorecards.

Jon Jones is my favorite play on the card and I like him in all formats. However, I will not be all in on this fight and I will not be stacking in cash. Jones scored 60-points in his last win and if he doesn’t look for takedowns he might not pay off his salary. I think he has a very high ceiling here if he does look for takedowns, but he could win this fight on the feet and if that’s what he decides to do then being underweight to a chalk Jones might be the way to go. I want a Reyes LU or two as well because he is live to win with a KO here, but I will likely go about 65% Jones, 10% Reyes, and fade in the other 25% in case Jones wins a low scoring decision. I will lock Jones into cash games but I don’t feel confident that this fight has a 100-point floor so that is why I will not be stacking.

Winner – Jon Jones via 2nd round (T)KO

 

 

 

 

Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!

 

 

 

*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru

**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.

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