Hello everyone and welcome to my “Trust The Process” article where we will be taking an in-depth look at the Research Station to help find plays on tonight’s 6-game slate! The goal is to help make a solidified process everyone can follow to crush cash games and tournaments alike. You can find me on Twitter @AUFan30 or in Slack throughout most of the day if you have any questions!
Point Guards
The first thing I do when looking for players to build around is sort by And1 rating. The And1 rating is an all-encompassing metric unique to the DFSArmy that factors in several different columns, including aDVP, Ceiling, Floor, USG%, etc. I like to keep track of the Top 5 players from each position. Take note of these guys and see if they stay high on the list of the other metrics we will look at.
Next, we will sort by Floor for cash games. When we do this, we see that Trae stays up top and most of the Top 5 remains the same. Elf falls out of the Top 5, telling me he may be a better GPP target than cash guy.
For GPP’s we will sort by Ceiling. The Ceiling is the number we can expect these guys to hit 15 – 20% of the time if everything goes right for them. Doing this, we see that Young stays in the top spot. We also notice the Top 5 doesn’t change much, so I’ll likely want to spread the love at PG tonight.
We will then sort by FP/Min. The FP/Min column is very useful in telling us who produces when they are on the court. Doing this shows us our Top 5 really doesn’t change at all. Young/Irving/Lillard stay extremely high on the list. Let’s take note of them as they are checking a lot of boxes. Also, Young has been #1 in everything we’ve looked at. Trae Young ceiling game incoming..?
The next step is to sort by USG%. If we’re looking for what studs to build around, we want a guy who is heavily involved in his offense. Note that Trae Young is STILL #1 in EVERYTHING we’ve looked at so far.
When we have what guys we want to target selected, we then want to look at two columns in particular: Who’s Hot? and Clock Watch. These two columns are very important for GPP plays in particular. Every player goes through a cold stretch as well as hot streaks. When we sort by Descending order, we see that McConnell and Lillard are on fire over their last 3 games, averaging right around 7X value and McConnell right around 8X.
When I sorted Clock Watch by Descending order, I noticed Shamet has been getting a ton of run recently. Pat Bev being hurt has helped Shamet the most it seems. Also, McConnell and Lillard are on a heat streak, Dame is already on our radar for the Top 5 lists, and are both getting more run recently. Something to keep a note of.
Finally, for guards, in particular, we look for guys in Pace Up matchups. This leads to more transition opportunities as well as steal opportunities. For cash games, we don’t necessarily worry too much about the Pace, but it is a very good metric for GPP guards. For guards, we sort by Descending under Pace (+/-). When we do this, we see Kemba, Elf, and McConnell all are already on our radar and will have a massive Pace Up matchup to sweeten the deal for us.
Shooting Guards and Small Forwards
SG’s and SF’s follow the exact same process as the PG’s do.
Power Forwards
For Power Forwards, we will follow the exact same process for these guys, however, we will change one thing. For PF’s, we want a slow-paced matchup. This is due to PF’s getting more steal and block opportunities, as well as rebound opportunities from set offenses. To find these guys, we will go to Pace of Play and sort Pace (+/-) by Ascending order. Again, take note of any PF’s noticed from the other metrics we’ve already looked at.
Centers
Centers follow the exact same process as PF’s.
C Val Feature
C Val = Ceiling Value. I plan to use this feature primarily to target my studs. The first thing I will do is look at the average salaries of players on the slate. Today on FanDuel, most of our higher ceiling studs start at $7,600. Therefore, I will make a rule on the RS under FDSalary –> Number Filters –> Custom Filter… I will then select “greater than or equal to” from the drop-down box and input 7600 into the input box.
We want our lineups to pay off and exceed as much salary as they possibly can. When we sort the C Val section by Descending order, we see who will pay off or exceed value if they hit their projected ceiling tonight. Tonight we see that Young (yes, Trae Young AGAIN!!) and Collins, in particular, would well exceed value if they have that Ceiling game we would expect 15 – 20% of the time. They all need to be on our GPP radar.
F Val Feature
F Val = Floor Value. I plan to use this feature to target my value guys. We want our value guys to at least hit floor value. The first thing I will do is sort Value by Descending order (make sure you’ve cleared the filter from the salary from our previous step!). This will show us who preliminarily should be good value plays for the night. Be sure to watch the news at #nba-breaking-news and #nba-coaches-notes to be sure you stay up to date with news and potential value opening up!
I will then take note of how our value salary is shaping up to be. It appears that most of our value plays on tonight’s slate should be under $5,300. I will then make the rule of salary “less than or equal to” 5300 just as I did with the ceiling guys. Once I have this setup, I will sort by F Val Descending. This tells me if any of the chalky value plays dud, this is how much we should return value-wise off of them. *NOTE* sorting by $5,300 is not a concrete step. You can sort by whatever value you would like.
Tier List
You will want to make a Tier List of the players you’ve found based on your research. Treat this list as an “in case they’re scratched” list. I would always recommend making the highest priced guy the first on your list, therefore if he is scratched then you have nothing to worry about salary-wise with your edits in case he is scratched just before lock.
Minutes
For cash games, I do make a rule on the RS to include only players who will play over 24 minutes. This is something that needs to be monitored, as the closer we get to lock the RS may not be updated and may require a manual adjustment to a player’s minutes. To add this setting, simply select the down arrow under EDIT Mins under the TODAYS – Projections tab, hover over Number Filters, select Custom Filter.
We will then select “Is greater than or equal to” from the drop-down box and 24 in the input box.
Domination Station Fpts/$ and Ownership %
Once we have our list of guys to target, we want to check out who is popping on the DS. The first section we want to pull up is the Fpts/$. Players hitting value is crucial to taking down any cash contest or tourney and we want to be sure we’re getting the best bang for our buck. We do this by sorting by Fpts/$.
We also want to check out projected ownerships. This is very useful when trying to decide what value to play, or deciding what studs to fade in tournaments. This can also help bring a player to your attention you may not have noticed in the Research Station! The industry is usually very spot on about what players are in good spots, so this ownership tab is very important to watch.
Top Plays for Today!!
These are my personal Top 5 Plays at each position based on the RS numbers. These will likely change when news comes out closer to lock, so make sure you’re in the #nba-breaking-news and #nba-coaches-notes channels and turn notifications on! (Salaries sorted by FD/DK)
PG
- Trae Young $9,600/$9,500
- Kemba Walker $7,600/$7,900
- Damian Lillard $9,700/$10,400
- Kyrie Irving $8,700/$9,000
- Elfrid Payton $5,800/$5,500
SG
- Bradley Beal $8,300/$8,200
- Spencer Dinwiddie $6,800/$7,200
- Dillon Brooks $5,200/$$5,500
- Kevin Huerter $4,900/$5,100
- Evan Fournier $5,100/$5,900
SF
- Jaylen Brown (Questionable, be watching news!) $6,200/$6,500
- Kelly Oubre $6,700/$6,300
- Gordon Hayward $6,000/$7,300
- Marcus Morris $5,600/$5,900
- TJ Warren $5,900/$6,000
PF
- John Collins $7,700/$8,000
- Jayson Tatum (Questionable, be watching news!) $7,500/$7,600
- Julius Randle $7,600/$7,600
- Domantas Sabonis $8,400/$8,700
- Kawhi Leonard $10,200/$10,200
C
- Nikola Vucevic $8,500/$8,500
- Deandre Ayton $7,800/$7,500
- Hassan Whiteside $9,300/$8,300
- Mitchell Robinson $4,900/$4,600
- Jonas Valanciunas $7,100/$6,900
Value
- TJ McConnell $4,600/$5,000
- De’Anthony Melton $4,600/$4,800
- Daniel Theis $4,900/$5,500
- De’Andre Hunter $3,800/$4,200
- Brandon Clarke $4,500/$4,700
Thank you for reading and as mentioned before, be sure to follow my Twitter @AUFan30 or catch me in Slack with any questions you may have! Be sure to be watching the breaking news channel as always to make sure you don’t miss any exciting value plays and be sure your players are good to go! If you know of anyone interested in signing up with the DFSArmy and winning some money, then be sure to tell them to use my referral link DFS Army VIP and use code “AU30” for 20% off their VIP/BTB monthly membership!