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Trust The Process DFS NBA – January 22nd, 2020 Fanduel and Draftkings

Hello everyone and welcome to my “Trust The Process” article where we will be taking an in-depth look at the Research Station to help find plays on tonight’s 12-game slate! The goal is to help make a solidified process everyone can follow to crush cash games and tournaments alike. You can find me on Twitter @AUFan30 or in Slack throughout most of the day if you have any questions!

Point Guards

The first thing I do when looking for players to build around is sort by And1 rating. The And1 rating is an all-encompassing metric unique to the DFSArmy that factors in several different columns, including aDVP, Ceiling, Floor, USG%, etc. I like to keep track of the Top 5 players from each position. Take note of these guys and see if they stay high on the list of the other metrics we will look at.

Next, we will sort by Floor for cash games. When we do this, we see that Russ moves to the top spot and most of the Top 5 changes. Russ, Trae, and Kemba might be our cash targets while Kendrick Nunn and Dragic might be best kept for GPP use.

For GPP’s we will sort by Ceiling. The Ceiling is the number we can expect these guys to hit 15 – 20% of the time if everything goes right for them. Doing this, we see that Young takes the top spot. This can be expected out of the most expensive PG on the slate. However, I do notice that Ben Simmons is #2 in both floor and ceiling, making him an extremely interesting option on tonight’s slate.

We will then sort by FP/Min. The FP/Min column is very useful in telling us who produces when they are on the court. Doing this shows us our Top 5 really doesn’t change much at all. Young/RWB/Simmons stay extremely high on the list. Let’s take note of them as they are checking a lot of boxes.

The next step is to sort by USG%. If we’re looking for what studs to build around, we want a guy who is heavily involved in his offense. Note that we still have Walker, Trae,  and RWB in every column we’ve looked at so far.

When we have what guys we want to target selected, we then want to look at two columns in particular: Who’s Hot? and Clock Watch. These two columns are very important for GPP plays in particular. Every player goes through a cold stretch as well as hot streaks. When we sort by Descending order, we see that RWB, Rubio, and Ben Simmons are riding some serious momentum over their last 3 games,  averaging right around 6X value with Rubio coming in at 7X.

When I sorted Clock Watch by Descending order, I noticed Nunn is averaging 36.7 minutes/game over his last 3 games compared to 30.8 over his last 10. I already know that Nunn rated highly on our And1 metric and this tells me Coach Spoelstra (Miami Heat head coach) may be riding the hot hand here in a good matchup. Monte Morris is popping here because he has been filling in for the injured Jamal Murray. Take note that Morris doesn’t pop on the Who’s Hot section at all.

Finally, for guards, in particular, we look for guys in Pace Up matchups. This leads to more transition opportunities as well as steal opportunities. For cash games, we don’t necessarily worry too much about the Pace, but it is a very good metric for GPP guards. For guards, we sort by Descending under Pace (+/-). When we do this, we see Nunn is already on our GPP radar and will have a massive Pace Up matchup to sweeten the deal for us.

Shooting Guards and Small Forwards

SG’s and SF’s follow the exact same process as the PG’s do.

Power Forwards

For Power Forwards, we will follow the exact same process for these guys, however, we will change one thing. For PF’s, we want a slow-paced matchup. This is due to PF’s getting more steal and block opportunities, as well as rebound opportunities from set offenses. To find these guys, we will go to Pace of Play and sort Pace (+/-) by Ascending order. Again, take note of any PF’s noticed from the other metrics we’ve already looked at.

Centers

Centers follow the exact same process as PF’s.

C Val Feature

C Val = Ceiling Value. I plan to use this feature primarily to target my studs. The first thing I will do is look at the average salaries of players on the slate. Today on FanDuel, most of our higher ceiling studs start at $8,200. Therefore, I will make a rule on the RS under FDSalary –> Number Filters –> Custom Filter… I will then select “greater than or equal to” from the drop-down box and input 8200 into the input box.

We want our lineups to pay off and exceed as much salary as they possibly can. When we sort the C Val section by Descending order, we see who will pay off or exceed value if they hit their projected ceiling tonight. Tonight we see that everyone from KAT down to Vucevic would well exceed value if they have that Ceiling game we would expect 15 – 20% of the time. They all need to be on our GPP radar.

F Val Feature

F Val = Floor Value. I plan to use this feature to target my value guys. We want our value guys to at least hit floor value. The first thing I will do is sort Value by Descending order. This will show us who preliminarily should be good value plays for the night. Be sure to watch the news at #nba-breaking-news and #nba-coaches-notes to be sure you stay up to date with news and potential value opening up! *NOTE* Bagley is OUT tonight!

I will then take note of how our value salary is shaping up to be. It appears that most of our value plays on tonight’s slate should be under $5,900. I will then make the rule of salary “less than or equal to” 5900 just as I did with the ceiling guys. Once I have this setup, I will sort by F Val Descending. This tells me if any of the chalky value plays dud, this is how much we should return value-wise off of them. *NOTE* sorting by $5,900 is not a concrete step. You can sort by whatever value you would like. Also, Marvin Bagley is OUT tonight!

Tier List

You will want to make a Tier List of the players you’ve found based on your research. Treat this list as an “in case they’re scratched” list. I would always recommend making the highest priced guy the first on your list, therefore if he is scratched then you have nothing to worry about salary-wise with your edits in case he is scratched just before lock.

Minutes

For cash games, I do make a rule on the RS to include only players who will play over 24 minutes. This is something that needs to be monitored, as the closer we get to lock the RS may not be updated and may require a manual adjustment to a player’s minutes. To add this setting, simply select the down arrow under EDIT Mins under the TODAYS – Projections tab, hover over Number Filters, select Custom Filter.

We will then select “Is greater than or equal to” from the drop-down box and 24 in the input box.

Domination Station Fpts/$ and Ownership %

Once we have our list of guys to target, we want to check out who is popping on the DS. The first section we want to pull up is the Fpts/$. Players hitting value is crucial to taking down any cash contest or tourney and we want to be sure we’re getting the best bang for our buck. We do this by sorting by Fpts/$.

We also want to check out projected ownerships. This is very useful when trying to decide what value to play, or deciding what studs to fade in tournaments. This can also help bring a player to your attention you may not have noticed in the Research Station! The industry is usually very spot on about what players are in good spots, so this ownership tab is very important to watch.

Top Plays for Today!!

These are my personal Top 5 Plays at each position based on the RS numbers. These will likely change when news comes out closer to lock, so make sure you’re in the #nba-breaking-news and #nba-coaches-notes channels and turn notifications on! (Salaries sorted by FD/DK)

PG

  1. Ben Simmons $9,300/$9,300
  2. Russell Westbrook $9,900/$9,800
  3. Kemba Walker $6,800/$7,400
  4. Kendrick Nunn $5,400/$6,100
  5. De’Aaron Fox $8,400/$8,300

SG

  1. Lou Williams $6,300/$7,300
  2. Donovan Mitchell $6,200/$7,800
  3. Buddy Hield $5,300/$6,800
  4. Jimmy Butler $8,900/$8,500
  5. James Harden $11,400/$11,200

SF

  1. Will Barton $6,500/$7,400
  2. Gordon Hayward $5,800/$5,800
  3. Tobias Harris $6,400/$7,300
  4. LeBron James $11,200/$10,800
  5. Brandon Ingram $8,700/$8,900

PF

  1. Anthony Davis $10,900/$9,900
  2. Jayson Tatum $7,600/$7,500
  3. Bam Adebayo $8,600/$8,400
  4. John Collins $7,600/$7,100
  5. Nemanja Bjelica $5,400/$6,700

C

  1. Karl-Anthony Towns $10,100/$10,400
  2. Deandre Ayton $8,200/$8,600
  3. Montrezl Harrell $5,900/$6,800
  4. Andre Drummond (Questionable, be watching news!) $10,300/$9,400
  5. Clint Capella $7,900/$7,500

Value

  1. Michael Porter Jr. $5,300/$6,600
  2. Jeff Teague $4,600/$4,000
  3. Monte Morris $4,000/$4,800
  4. Jerami Grant $4,200/$5,600
  5. Zion Williamson $4,500/$5,000 (More of a FanDuel play)

 

Thank you for reading and as mentioned before, be sure to follow my Twitter @AUFan30 or catch me in Slack with any questions you may have! Be sure to be watching the breaking news channel as always to make sure you don’t miss any exciting value plays and be sure your players are good to go! If you know of anyone interested in signing up with the DFSArmy and winning some money, then be sure to tell them to use my referral link DFS Army VIP  and use code “AU30” for 20% off their VIP monthly membership!