Hello DFS Army members and welcome to Mutt18’s Value Traps and Who’s Trending for the 2019-2020 NBA DFS Season! My name is Steve aka Mutt18. I am @mutt_18 on Twitter as well, so give me a follow for any updates on this article as I will tweet them out. A little background about me, I’ve been grinding DFS for about 6-7 years now. DFS helped me pay my way through college and I am now a full-time firefighter. If you’re familiar with last year’s article then welcome back! I’m very excited to keep doing these as I feel they provide a huge edge, especially now that FanDuel has gotten rid of the Drop Score, identifying those Value Traps is going to be even more important as rostering one of them in your lineup will ruin your night. For those unfamiliar or new to the article, I break things down as follows:
This article here at DFS Army as we will be looking at Value Traps. A value trap, also referred to as a land mine, is a player that jumps out either in the Domination Station or Research Station as representing value but in reality they really have no way of making value, either through inconsistent play, lack of opportunity, or they are just a bad play in general. These plays are often the ones that either make or break your lineups. My goal in this article is to dig a bit deeper and use all the great data available to us in the DS and RS and help try to identify those “Value Traps” that will destroy your lineups and end up costing you money. By identifying them my hope is to help educate you on what to look for and how to avoid these lineup killers. From there I will also be focusing on some of the lesser known tools available in the Research Station, specifically the Who’s Hot, and Clock Watch sections that can help us identify those players trending in the right direction that we can identify and use before the rest of the DFS world catches on.
Tonight we have a really juicy 10 game slate, so there’s going to be more Value Traps than you would find on a smaller slate and we’re going to need to really single them out to avoid them and kill your lineups, as nailing the value picks will be key to winning tonight.
Value Traps
Matisse Thybulle (FD: $4,100 DK: $4,600) – Thybulle is popping in the RS for value today, but I’m here to caution you that it is mostly smoke and mirrors. People will go to him today too with Josh Richardson out, but with Embiid and Richardson off the court, Thybulle still only has a 13.1% usage rate and averages 0.61 FPPM. While he’ll likely draw the start here, he played 27 minutes last game and scored 13 actual points, which is high for him, and contributed nothing in peripheral stats, aside from some fouls. He also has Furkan Korkmaz, and Shake Milton spelling him off the bench, if you’re going to go for a value play on the Sixers tonight, go for Korkmaz, not Thybulle. Thybulle simply hasn’t shown that ceiling we want of 8-10x value of a value play in this price range to help you take down a GPP.
Joe Harris (FD: $3,900 DK: $4,200) – Kyrie and LeVert coming back has effected Joe Harris the most. You can tell from his numbers:
He’s averaging almost 7 FPPG fewer and netting an average return of 3.5x value. The guy was really only averaging around 20 FPPG beforehand, so that’s basically a 33% drop in fantasy point production over the course of the last week. That Nets backcourt is very crowded now, and Harris appears to be the odd man out. I’m fading him here.
Darius Bazley (FD: $3,600 DK: $3,100) – With all the injuies to the Thunder, Bazley will likely draw the start tonight and people will likely flock to him for value tonight. I’m here to warn you about him, since the Thunder have already ruled out Danilo Gallinari, Abdel Nader, Nerlens Noel, and Terrance Ferguson. However, with all of those guys out, Bazley still has a paltry 13.5% usage rate, and 0.73 FPPM. The biggest boost actually goes to Hamidou Diallo and Dennis Schroder, who will both play some solid minutes off the bench. If you’re going to punt here, I’d rather go with a guy like Diallo.
Just Missed the Cut: Bruce Brown (FD: $4,300 DK: $3,900) – Brown has been trending down for awhile now, and with Jackson ruled out people will go to him here again. However, Rose has taken over this Pistons backcourt, and Brown is averaging almost 10 FPPG less over his last 3 and is back to playing under 30 minutes. His price is solid for value, but I just don’t see him hitting his ceiling in this game or really coming close to it.
Who’s Trending
Andre Drummond (FD: $10,300 DK: $9,100) – We all know the drill by now, you play bigs against the Nets, and while Drummond was out last night, he’s listed as probable tonight and the Pistons have already had a slew of guys ruled out as well. Let’s look at his numbers:
His last game he put up 78 FPs against them and is averaging just under 60 FPs against the Nets over their last 3 times these teams played. He’s also trending under Who’s Hot, as he is averaging 51 FPPG over his last 3 and almost 5 FPs more over those same 3 games. It’s an absolute smash spot for Drummond here tonight.
Kris Dunn (FD: $5,500 DK: $5,800) – With Wendell Carter and Lauri Markkanen both likely out tonight, Dunn see’s a nice usage bump up to 18.5% and averages 0.96 FPPM. He’s been playing just under 30 minutes per game, and sees a +3.4% usage bump with both those guys out, and he’s trending as well:
He’s averaging almost 8 FPPG more over his last 3, and averaging a return of 5.9x value! At his price on both sites he has potential for 7-8x value return given this matchup. Dunn has also been playing the 2 guard for the Bulls, and it just so happens that the Cavs are ranked dead last against opposing 2 guards on the year. The upside is there for him tonight, as he is a hound on defense as well and the Cavs guards are turnover prone, so he should see a boost in the steal department as well. He’s a very nice mid-range play tonight that should be under 10% owned.
Larry Nance (FD: $4,400 DK: $5,400) – I like him more on FanDuel, but Nance really is popping in the model today:
The biggest thing is that his minutes are trending upward, as he’s playing almost 4 more minutes per game and averaging just under 30 minutes off the bench. This is big in part to the Cavs trading Jordan Clarkson, as he has taken over that 6th man role for them. He’s averaging 6.4x value over his last 3 as well, and averaging over 20 FPPG over his last 10. With his new expanded role, he should play close to 30 minutes again tonight, against a Bulls team that ranks in the bottom third of the league against stretch 4’s. He’s more of a play on FanDuel at his price, but he has a safe floor given the extra playing time he is getting.
Just Missed the Cut: Derrick Rose (FD: $6,800 DK: $7,500) – The only thing keeping Rose on the cusp is that Bruce Brown is back tonight. With the injuries to the Pistons, Rose has a usage rate of 32.6% and averages 1.34 FPPM and he gets a prime matchup against the Nets who are bleeding fantasy points to opposing PGs and Reggie Jackson has already been ruled out tonight. He should play 30+ minutes and at his price he can get you 6-7x value.
Everyone, NBA is very volatile with late scratches so please pay extra attention to Breaking News today! Stay on your toes!
As always, keep your eyes peeled for updates as we get news closer to lock. All my updates will be in BOLD.
That’s all I got for today guys, any questions feel free to hit me up in the coaches forums (I’m your FanDuel coach today!) or via Twitter (username is at the top of the article) Now let’s go get that money!
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