Welcome to the DFS Army NHL Game Break! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process. I am @LowOwnedWR and you can find me out on Twitter. But you’ll really find me in our VIP coaching forums inside coaching and detailing plays and strategic hockey maneuvers in an attempt to make our members better, more fundamentally sound players. If you are looking for it, we cover it as a team! Follow me, follow us, interact with me, interact with us, we welcome it all.
NHL DFS At A Glance
These are all of stats/rates that I like to look at for teams. I feel as it helps give you an idea of which team is shooting the puck (which will result in goals) and who is giving up the most shots (which will result in goals) and more, let’s break those down.
ODDS: The % chance that the team will win the game. Teams with the highest % to win goalies tend to be chalk and good cash plays.
O/U: The predicted combined score of the teams playing in said matchup. 6.5 will be the highest that you will see and 5.5 will be the lowest.
ITT: Implied Team Total; looking at this can help you tell what the chalk will be, the team with the highest ITT on the slate will be the chalkiest and the lowest will be the lowest owned. In GPPs it can be good to just cut out the top team or two in ITT and build from that.
GF/60: The amount of goals a team has scored per 60 minutes of time on ice.
GA/60: The amount of goals a team has allowed per 60 minutes of time on ice.
xGF/60: Expected Goals For per 60 minutes of time on ice. Example being, a shot in really close from the slot might have a .35 xG (expected goal) value or higher, meaning, that the higher a teams xGF/60 is, the more high quality chances that team is creating. Nothing can be worth 1.0 xG.
xGA/60: Expected Goals Against per 60 minutes of time on ice. Example being, a team allowed a rebound right outside the crease, that shot is likely to have a .3 xG value or higher, meaning, if a team is allowing rebounds, high danger chances or basically anything that can be a predictor for future goals allowed, you can use xGA/60 to see that.
SF/60: Shots For per 60 minutes of ice time. You can use this to see what goalies are potentially going to see a lot of shots (meaning they have a higher ceiling) or what defensemen are going to see a lot of Blocked Shots opportunity.
SA/60: Shots Against per 60 minutes of ice time. You can use this to see what teams have been bleeding shots so you can target skaters going against them, also teams with a higher SA/60 goalies tend to have higher ceilings and they also tend to be cheap because they are normally projected to lose.
PP%: Power Play Goals divided by Power Play Attempts. Teams with higher PP% tend to score more goals.
PK%: Measures the rate in which a team prevents their opponents from scoring on the Power Play. Teams with a higher PK% tend to allow less goals.
vMatchup: Averaging up GA/60, xGA/60 and SA/60 and giving it a value. Target teams in the RED as they are giving up the most goals and shots
vOffense: Averaging up GF/60, xGF/60 and SF/60 and giving it a value. Look at teams with the higher ratings as they are scoring more goals and have players who are shooting the puck.
If you have questions regarding these numbers or this chart, don’t hesitate to ask me on our coaching forums. Just tag me (@LowOwnedWR) and let’s get on the same page.
Quick Read: NHL Cash Game Basics – Get The Fundamentals First
(All stats below from last ten games)
Vegas Golden Knights @ Buffalo Sabres
Vegas Golden Knights: Pacioretty will not shooting the puck so he has been priced up, however, with the increase in price he should see a decent decrease in ownership and a matchup against Buffalo is for sure a good one. I am only look at Max here as a one off as there are other games I want a bigger piece of.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Max Pacioretty
Cash viable – Max Pacioretty
GPP Sleeper – Max Pacioretty
Buffalo Sabres: As usual if I am not playing Eichel I am not playing anyone from the Sabres.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Jack Eichel
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – Jack Eichel
Minnesota Wild @ Pittsburgh Penguins
Minnesota Wild: Pittsburgh has arguably been the best defensive team in the league this year, so I am not looking to roster anyone here. EXCEPT: Matt Dumba is for some reason still almost minimum price on FanDuel and that is great value for cash.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – Matt Dumba (FanDuel Only)
GPP Sleeper – Matt Foligno
Pittsburgh Penguins: Pittsburgh is implied 3.5 goals here and I assume that has a lot to do with Crosby coming back into the line up. I am just not feeling the Penguins tonight as Minnesota can play a slow game.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Los Angeles Kings @ Tampa Bay Lightning
Los Angeles Kings: Tampa is the hottest team in the league right now and I do not feel as rostering the Kings tonight is in order.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – Austin Wagner
Tampa Bay Lightning: The hottest team in the NHL right now playing one of the worst teams in the league is usually a recipe for success. I am sticking with the top guns of Kucherov, Hedman and Stamkos and for value I am looking at Gourde.
5 star plays – Kucherov, Stamkos, Hedman
4 star plays – Gourde (value)
Cash viable – Kucherov, Stamkos, Hedman, Gourde
GPP Sleeper – Gourde
New Jersey Devils @ Toronto Maple Leafs
New Jersey Devils: Blake Coleman and Miles Wood remain great values on both sites and Toronto’s D has been shaky as of late, I like one of those two if not both to get a goal tonight. Will Butcher is seeing PP2 and is only $2900 on DK in what should be a high action game.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Blake Coleman
Cash viable – Blake Coleman
GPP Sleeper – Miles Wood
Toronto Maple Leafs: Matthews-Tavares mini stack is always a great leverage play and both of them make a lot of sense tonight and good luck trying to pick the right one out of the two. On FD I highly recommend playing Kirby Dach so that stack will not be possible. I like Tavares as he has just as much upside as Matthews but is cheaper and will have lower ownership.
5 star plays – John Tavares, Auston Matthews
4 star plays – Mitch Marner
Cash viable – John Tavares, Auston Matthews
GPP Sleeper – none
Boston Bruins @ Columbus Blue Jackets
Boston Bruins: Neither of these teams have been producing quality offense as of late and with better games on the slate I think it is just better to fade this one.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Columbus Blue Jackets: Fade.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Detroit Red Wings @ New York Islanders
Detroit Red Wings: Probably the worst team in the league going up against one of the if not the best coached team in the league. No Red Wings tonight.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
New York Islanders: I know they are playing the Red Wings but this team is just an absolute dread to roster, the expensive guys just do not have the ceiling that you are looking for. I like Anders Lee and Scott Mayfield on DK but that is it.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Anders Lee (DK)
Cash viable – Anders Lee (DK), Scott Mayfield (Value)
GPP Sleeper –
Chicago Blackhawks @ Ottawa Senators
Chicago Blackhawks: The Blackhawks lines right now are just abysmal, but Ottawa will have to let up a goal or two because that is what they do. I love Kirby Dach on both sites tonight and outside of him I like Patrick Kane as he has a limitless ceiling in good match ups.
5 star plays – Kirby Dach
4 star plays – Patrick Kane
Cash viable – Kirby Dach, Patrick Kane
GPP Sleeper – Erik Gustaffson
Ottawa Senators: If this was the Senators a month ago before Tkachuk, Duclair etc starting playing better and got priced up I would be all over it, but I am not paying full price for the Senators.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Vancouver Canucks @ Winnipeg Jets
Vancouver Canucks: Both of these teams have been awful on offense and defense as of late. I do not really like the Vancouver side of this one.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Winnipeg Jets: Vancouver has been a team to target against recently and Winnipeg has some alright plays tonight and they should all be low owned with everyone going Toronto and Tampa.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Patrik Laine, Blake Wheeler, Kyle Connor
Cash viable – Kyle Connor
GPP Sleeper – none
Nashville Predators @ Edmonton Oilers
Nashville Predators: Hynes burnt me enough when he was the Devils coach and I do not plan on letting him do that to me or us again. Nashville is blacklisted for me outside of great matchups and if value opens up (outside of Roman Josi)
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Roman Josi
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – Roman Josi
Edmonton Oilers: Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl tonight. That is all I am looking for from the Oilers.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – Leon Draisaitl
San Jose Sharks @ Arizona Coyotes
San Jose Sharks: Once again a game with two struggling offenses in it and I just would rather not touch it.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – Erik Karlsson
Arizona Coyotes: Fade.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Dallas Stars @ Colorado Avalanche
Dallas Stars: Another one of those games I am really just not on. Dallas just slows everything down.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Colorado Avalanche: One of those rare nights you can get MacKinnon at low ownership at home. The matchup is not great but he is one of the best players in the league and can beat anyone.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Nathan MacKinnon
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – Nathan MacKinnon
Goalies:
Thomas Greiss (FD): Great value on FD at $7700 and is playing them team with the lowest ITT on the slate.
Connor Hellebuyck (DK): Only $7600 on DK and as mentioned Winnipeg has been awful on D lately. Meaning he has good upside for the bonus.