BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC 246 Location – Las Vegas, Nevada
This weekend, we have a 12-fight PPV card in Vegas with the return of Conor McGregor. DraftKings has some great contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $24.60 buy-in and $100k goes to 1st place with a total of $324,625 being paid out. I will probably stick to the top GPPs this week and mainly chase that $100k. I will probably max that contest and then focus on a main 1-3 lineups for SE and 3-entry max contests. I will make a cash lineup as well, but I am mostly just going to hunt for non-badges in the H2H lobby instead of posting every week and playing 50/50s and double ups.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights and hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
JJ Aldrich $8,200 vs Sabina Mazo $8,000
JJ Aldrich
Age: 27
Height: 5’5
Weight: 125
Reach: 67.5”
Gym: 303 Training Center
From: Colorado
UFC Record: 4-2
Fight Matrix: 34
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -105
JJ Aldrich has looked very good recently winning four of her last five matches. She was pretty dominant in a decision over Lauren Mueller in her last match & has flashed power in her hands in her two FLW fights. She has hurt both opponents she’s fought badly in that division including dropping hyped prospect Maycee Barber. She now is taking on another young prospect in Sabina Mazo. Aldrich is a skilled striker. She is a southpaw and a pretty technical striker. She is very good at controlling distance & staying long. She controls the center well, and backs opponents up with feints & forward pressure. She will paw out her lead land to find her range & then drop her straight-left hand right down the pipe. She has a nasty right hook, straight-left hand combination. She will use the check right hook to counter when opponents overextend. She has a solid jab. She is very composed & I really like the way she controls distance. She will go forward, but constantly is aware of the range & is feinting when she slides in & out of range. She is great at sliding away & countering with her straight-left or even a right hook, straight-left combination. She can overextend herself at times on punches. She doesn’t move her head much & it’s there to be hit if opponents can eat her shot & counter. She has nice kicks; Body kicks & inside leg kicks. She will throw front kicks up the middle to the body & head. She will throw nice spinning backfists, and when Aldrich gets confident she is pretty good at landing long combinations. She does stand heavy on her lead leg & struggled a bit with the kicks of Viana. She wasn’t able to find her range as well and was forced to grapple more. In the first round of her fight with Maycee Barber her striking looked great. Her straight-left was on fire & she even dropped Maycee Barber. She was doing a good job of punching herself out of the clinch & not letting Barber be comfortable at range. Barber was forced to throw caution to the wind & ate shots to give shots coming over the top with heavy hooks. Aldrich does leave her chin high & doesn’t move her head much. She was hurt with a combination on the feet in the second round & then finished against the cage standing. It was the first TKO loss of Aldrich’s career. Aldrich has bad defense when she gets backed near the cage & is very hittable. The limited amount of success Lauren Mueller had in their match was when she was able to get JJ stationary against the cage. If Mazo walks Aldrich down in this fight, she has to make her pay with counters & angle off. Aldrich has 2 KO/TKO’s herself but has shown power at 125.
JJ Aldrich has improved her grappling, but it is still where she has been exploited in the past. She showed strong clinch technique against Danielle Taylor, timing good upper body lock entries & tripping her to the floor. She was able to dig double underhooks & control Polyana Viana against the cage but doesn’t have much offense from there. She isn’t bad when fighters get inside on her in the striking, digging the double unders & pushing her opponent to the cage or taking them down. Against Maycee Barber, she showed some solid, dirty boxing. When she fought Polyana Viana, she was taken down & got her back taken, but was able to quickly sweep to top position, move to half guard & land some nice G&P. She isn’t very good on top overall & when she takes top position she will usually just stall out. I do feel Aldrich is probably physically stronger than Mazo & will be looking to back her up & control her in the clinch at times. We have seen Maryna Moroz dominate Mazo in the clinch & on the ground. When Aldrich does get taken down, she has a decent guard & guard recovery. She works the butterfly guard & will try to create scrambles to stand up. Fighters in the past have been able to just use strength & pressure to negate it and do damage on the ground. Aldrich has been submitted two times. She has no submissions herself.
Sabina Mazo
Age: 22
Height: 5’7
Weight: 126
Reach: 70”
Gym: Kings MMA
From: Colombia
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 41
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -115
Sabina Mazo bounced back from her UFC debut loss with a decision victory over Shana Dobson. Mazo was able to mix it up & looked good in the win. At 22 years of age we should expect improvements every time she steps in the octagon. Mazo is going to be naturally bigger, taller & the longer fighter. Sabina Mazo is a dangerous striker with the kicks. She will throw some hands but is predominately a kicker. She will open up fights with a lot of inside, outside low kicks to find her range & then will start to attack the body & head with round kicks. Mazo will switch stances & kicks fluidly with both legs. She has multiple head kick knockouts & hurt her last opponent, Shana Dobson, with a body kick. She will throw occasional front kicks to the body and head as well. Mazo will land nice step-in knees to the body & head. Mazo will throw some straight punches, but her hands aren’t very good. She does have a decent jab & one-two but doesn’t throw many other hand combinations. Mazo does a good job of using head movement as she’s entering range & her lateral movement isn’t bad. Her striking defense leaves a lot of be desired though. When she throws kicks or punches, she leaves her head firmly on centerline & can get tagged with straight shots. Mazo can give up the center very easily & allow opponents to back her up. Maryna Moroz busted her face up with the jab & straight punches & controlled her in the clinch against the cage.
Sabina Mazo showed off some grappling chops in her last match. Being a tall girl gives her an advantage in the clinch. She is good at throwing frame elbows & knees to the body & head. She was able to back Dobson up in her last match & land takedowns against the cage. She hit a double leg along with some body lock takedowns. Mazo was able to maintain control in top position & basically dominate. She was able to mount Dobson late in round three & got some damage off with elbows. Mazo turked the legs when she got the double which made it easier to slide into mount. She will also get half guard where she stays very heavy. She will use a lot of shoulder pressure to threaten the arm triangle & the pass as she lands short punches & forearms. Mazo has no submission victories & has never been submitted.
This should be a pretty close striking battle. I think Mazo is more likely to wrestle and more likely to get a knockout with her left head kick, but I think we see mostly striking for 15 full minutes. I think JJ has the better hands but Mazo has the better kicks and throws more volume. Mazo is only 22 years old though and should improve in between each fight so I think she should be the slight favorite here and I will pick her to win 2 of the 3 rounds.
I usually like rostering the first fight of the night, but I don’t have much interest in this one. I don’t see either fighter going for many takedowns and I think the high kick from Mazo is the only real shot at a KO here. If there is no finish and takedowns, I just don’t see this fight scoring highly and it probably won’t even 10x. My preferred play is Mazo though and she will make my player pool at 5-10% or so, but I will be under 5% for JJ if she makes my pool at all. I think Mazo is an OK cash game play, but I think there are cheaper fighters we can punt on.
Winner – Sabina Mazo via Unanimous Decision
Ode Osbourne $8,600 vs Brian Kelleher $7,600
Ode Osbourne
Age: 28
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 72”
Gym: Roufusport MMA
From: Wisconsin
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 252
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: -145
Ode Osbourne will be making his UFC debut after earning an upset victory on the contender series. Osbourne has a fun style to watch & is good on the microphone, so with some wins, he definitely could become a star. Osbourne is an athletic, fast twitch, muscle guy. He is a calm, fast southpaw with controlled aggression & rarely takes backwards steps. Osbourne isn’t much of a mover, he stands right in front of opponents, inching forwards or backwards, but controlling the center. Osbourne has a nice jab & left hook. He will sometimes pop the jab, or a jab, left hook to try to pull counter off, but mainly is a counter fighter. He will throw front leg sidekicks to the body and head. He doesn’t throw first very often and relies on slipping & ripping. Osbourne holds his hands low but has excellent vision and head movement. He will slip just out of the way of punches & come back with tight, straight punch or hook counters. His punches are very fast & straight, and he definitely has power. Osbourne is excellent at catching kicks & countering with straight punches & even head kicks. In his last match, he caught a kick & threw a head kick which connected & rocked his last opponent. Osbourne will throw some nice flying knees & is an explosive guy. Osbourne can get pressured backwards at times & due to holding his hands low, he always has that chance of getting clipped. I haven’t seen many opponents attacking Ode’s body, and I feel Kelleher will do that. Osbourne’s countering ability can get opponents gun shy. Osbourne has 3 career KO/TKO’s. He has never been knocked out, and I haven’t even seen him take many clean shots.
Ode Osbourne is a good grappler. Osbourne isn’t an offensive wrestler in MMA & doesn’t shoot takedowns but has a very dangerous guard. Osbourne did catch a kick & get a takedown in his last match, but his opponent scrambled back up very quickly. Osbourne also wrestled in college, so he has that in his back pocket. Osbourne can be taken down fairly easily but gets a lot of submissions off his back. Osbourne traps wrists & will attack with armbars & triangles immediately. Three of his last four wins have come with submissions off his back. Osbourne’s game is to walk opponents down, beat them up on the feet & KO them or force them to shoot & submit them. He was caught in a knee bar in his lone submission loss. Osbourne has 4 career submissions. He has finished 7 of his 8 victories. Osbourne is a bit iffy on the scorecards. He has one decision loss & one decision win via split decision. I haven’t been able to see his fights which were extended after round one. Osbourne has not gotten out of round one since 2016. This is definitely the toughest & most experienced fighter he’s ever faced.
Brian Kelleher
Age: 33
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: 64”
Gym: Factory X Muay Thai
From: New York
UFC Record: 3-3
Fight Matrix: 31
Last Fought: 1 Year 1 Month
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +125
Brian Kelleher will be entering his seventh UFC fight on a bit of a skid. He has lost back to back fights & needs a win here. Kelleher is taking on Ode Osbourne who is making his debut fresh off the contender series. Kelleher is a tricky striker. He is constantly switching stances and pressuring forward. He has a good jab. He will jab himself into range for his straight or overhand right. He will also jab, step back & try to pull counter opponents. Kelleher will throw some nice combinations to the body and head. He will throw left hooks to the body then to the head. He will throw a left or right body hook to a spinning backfist. Kelleher will sit in the pocket & wing big hooks & overhands. He is willing to throw down. He will walk opponents into big uppercuts. He likes throwing uppercut, left or right hook combinations. Kelleher will throw some nice round & front kicks to the body. He will throw jab, head kick combinations. Kelleher’s defense is not very good. When he pressures forward, he leaves his chin high & his hands low. He will walk into shots & takes a lot of damage in fights. Kelleher struggles with low kicks also. Kelleher was hurt to the body in his fight with John Lineker as well. Kelleher doesn’t have the best footwork when forced to move backwards. He gets cut off near the cage & Lineker was able to knock him out that way. Kelleher has only been knocked out that one time & has a strong chin. Kelleher has 6 KO/TKO’s. He doesn’t really have fight ending power but makes opponents quit with volume.
Brian Kelleher is an average grappler. Kelleher is a brown belt in Jiu-Jitsu and has a number of submissions on his record. Kelleher isn’t a very proficient wrestler and struggles to get the fight to the mat when he wants to. He will try to use strikes to disguise his level changes & likes to shoot single legs. Against the cage, he will chain wrestle & look to take opponents down. John Lineker was able to deny his entries fairly easily, and Montel Jackson hurt Kelleher with an elbow as he crashed into the clinch. Kelleher did have some success controlling Renan Barao against the cage. When Kelleher gets in top position, he is more about control than submission or damage. Kelleher is more dangerous with his BJJ when opponents shoot in on him. His guillotine is the most dangerous submission he has. Kelleher has 5 career guillotine finishes. He has 7 submissions overall. Kelleher was submitted in his last match & struggled with submission defense over his career. Kelleher has been submitted six times including twice in the UFC. Kelleher has great cardio & is a gamer. He will be there & trying to win for all three rounds. He has always weaponized cardio & goes hard in round 3s. This is the final fight on his contract & he has promised to let it all fly.
Osbourne looks pretty solid and he is the more dangerous striker and probably the better submission artist as well. He is hittable and can be put on his back and Kelleher is good at pushing the pace and mixing in takedowns. I think Kelleher could win this fight if he can wrestle and stay out of submissions. I just don’t know that he can do that after being submitted 6 times in his career and I think Osbourne wins most striking exchanges.
This is a fight I am more interested in. We have a -215 FDGTD line on this fight and I think both guys are in play. Osbourne is my preferred play here and I like his +155 ITD line. I have never been real high on Kelleher and I think he can be finished on the feet or the mat in this fight. Ode isn’t too expensive either at $8.6k so I think he is playable in all formats. He will probably be a guy I look to get 30% or so of this weekend and he could even end up in my cash LU. I am worried about it being his debut though and if Kelleher can win this fight then I think he likely scores 10x or more, even if it is a decision win. I think he can get multiple takedowns in this fight and that could get him an 80+ point win on the scorecards. I probably will be closer to 20% on Kelleher but this is a fight I think we should be targeting if we are MMEing. If you are making 3 lineups, then I would just pick a side and not waste a lineup by getting exposure to both.
Winner – Ode Osbourne via 2nd round (T)KO
Aleksa Camur $8,800 vs Justin Ledet $7,400
Aleksa Camur
Age: 24
Height: 6’0
Weight: 205
Reach: 75”
Gym: Strong Style Fight Team
From: Ohio
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 224
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: -120
Aleksa Camur will be making his UFC debut fresh off a victory on the DWCS. Camur got a nasty knockout victory, & at only 5-0 earned the UFC’s call. Camur is a main training partner of Stipe Miocic & looks like a solid prospect. Aleksa Camur is a solid athlete & is a boxer. Camur is used to being the aggressor in most of his fights. He controls the center and has a wide stance while bouncing in & out of range well. He has a nice, snappy jab, and will double jab into range. His double jab, two or double jab, overhand right or right hook are money combinations for him. Camur has a very nice, leaping left hook. His head movement & slipping & ripping in the pocket are pretty high level. Camur opened up with a lot of kicks in his last match. That is what should be effective in this one. He has nasty low kicks & heavy round kicks to the body and head. In this fight, he needs to throw a lot of low kicks to shut down the jab of Ledet. Camur will use front kicks to the body & head. He has an excellent question mark kick. He can throw the kicks with both legs and is very fluid. In his last match, he finished the fight with a nasty flying knee. He was rocked & stayed composed, showing he can battle through adversity. Camur has won all his fights via KO/TKO. He has never been to round 3 in his career.
I have not gotten to seen much of Aleksa Camur’s grappling chops. I have seen fights where he drops opponents and finishes them with ground & pound. Camur did clinch up Fabio Cherant against the cage, his last opponent, but didn’t do much offense there. I haven’t seen him shoot any offensive takedowns or get takedowns in the clinch in his fights. I haven’t seen many opponents shoot in on him either. I expect him to have fast hips & a nice sprawl though. He’s an athlete & I don’t think it will just be easy to get him down. I doubt he will have to deal with much of a takedown threat vs Ledet, but Justin did get a takedown & submission win over Mark Godbeer. Camur is still very young in his career. He has just five fights & never been to a decision or third round. Camur looks in good shape & fresh in the second round. I don’t expect him to gas out, but that’s still to be determined having never been pushed to round three. This is definitely the most experienced fighter & biggest test of Aleksa Camur’s career.
Justin Ledet
Age: 31
Height: 6’4
Weight: 205
Reach: 80”
Gym: No Affiliation
From: Texas
UFC Record: 3-2
Fight Matrix: 144
Last Fought: 11 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +100
Justin Ledet has had no success since moving down to the LHW division. Justin Ledet was 3-0 at HW in the UFC & 9-0 overall. Since going to LHW he is 0-2 and been dominated almost every second of both fights. Against Aleksandar Rakic, Ledet lost 10-8 in all 3 rounds on two score cards & lost 30-25 on the other card. In his second LHW outing, he was knocked out in less than one minute. Ledet is in desperate need of a victory. He is a bit of an odd guy. He seems to me like the type of fighter who may be un-coachable. I am not sure he will ever do anything much different than he does already, and this may very well be the finished Justin Ledet product. Justin Ledet on the feet relies solely on his boxing. He has one of the better jabs in the entire UFC & it’s definitely his main weapon. He will double & triple up on it, and really bloodies the face of his opponents with it. He will use a lot of feints to disguise when he is throwing his jab. He has a nice straight-right hand & right hook. He has a good check left hook. He will fade away and throw a left hook backing up. He is pretty one dimensional on the feet & doesn’t throw kicks or much in combination. He usually only will throw a jab or a jab, hook. Ledet is very heavy on his lead leg & that’s something he needs to address, because I imagine all his opponents will try to exploit that moving forward. Rakic was able to completely nullify his lead hand with the leg kicks. Ledet allows opponents to control the center, and almost constantly fights on the back foot. Ledet is a coaster, someone who is fine doing enough to just win and stay slightly ahead of his opponent on points. That is a risky thing to do & we have already almost seen it almost come back to bite him when he won via split decision against a fighter he was clearly better than in Zu Anyanwu. He is more of a volume striker and doesn’t have big power. He only has two career TKO’s. He has a great chin & will talk to opponents when they hit him to make sure they know they didn’t hurt him. He did finally get his chin checked in his last match. Johnny Walker was able to get a quick knockout victory which was the first of Ledet’s career.
Justin Ledet is well rounded and has earned a UFC submission victory. He likes to shoot takedowns when he has opponent’s backs near the cage & he has good double leg takedowns. When he attempted a takedown on Aleksandar Rakic, he was easily reversed with double underhooks & put on his back. Ledet on top has good guard passing & likes to take the back & get rear naked chokes. Ledet will try to take the back when opponents take him down as well. Off his back, he has gotten a couple armbars against low level competition but didn’t show much against Rakic in his last fight. He did show a good guard early and was able to get feet on the hips & having his legs high to control posture and not allow much G&P. He could never get-up & eventually Rakic did have success passing his guard & landing elbows. Ledet will trap a wrist & attack with triangles. Ledet has 5 career submissions & never been submitted in his career. His takedown defense didn’t look the greatest in the Rakic fight. I don’t see either fighter shooting a takedown in this match.
I haven’t seen enough from Camur to say he should be the favorite here. There isn’t much film on him, but power is definitely his best attribute. I think he is more likely to get a KO in this fight but if he doesn’t get the KO then I wouldn’t be confident at all that he will win, and he has never even been to round 3. I think Ledet is the better boxer here and he has some subs on his record as well. This is a dog or pass fight for me.
This is another fight I am interested in both sides a bit. I like Ledet because he is cheap on DK at $7.4k and the betting line is close to even. That discount is fine with me in all formats and he is my preferred play. I don’t think he has a big ceiling here, but he is one of the more live underdogs and I think he could get 10x in a decision win here if FightMetric decides they want to count jabs as sig strikes this week. I think Camur is in play as well because he has power and he could get a KO here. Ledet is coming off a KO loss and Camur ITD is +170 which isn’t bad here. I think that makes Ledet in cash a bit risky as well, but I am picking Ledet to get the win here, so I will have more of him and Camur will just be a guy I mix in where he fits.
Winner – Justin Ledet via Split Decision
Nasrat Haqparast $9,300 vs Drew Dober $6,900
Nasrat Haqparast
Age: 24
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 72”
Gym: Tristar Gym
From: Germany
UFC Record: 3-1
Fight Matrix: 61
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: -335
Nasrat Haqparast has looked progressively better over his last three UFC fights. He earned his first UFC finish in his last match knocking out Joaquim Silva. Haqparast is only 24 & improving every time out. Haqparast is getting a pretty big name in the division & will likely get a top 15 matchup with a victory. Nasrat has shown big explosion & big power over his UFC career. He walks opponents down while throwing stabbing front kicks to the body & constantly looking for the overhand left. Haqparast is a southpaw, has nice feints & really can close a lot of distance with his punches. He will explode into range with overhand lefts that hurt opponents time & time again. It was the shot that dropped & led to the finish of his last opponent Joaquim Silva. He will occasionally change the overhand to a straight. Haqparast has very fast hand speed & when he can get opponents moving backwards & land his jab, he will attack the body and head with fluid punching combos. At range, he really relies heavily on the overhand left & front kick. Thibault Gouti was able to back him up, keep the jab in his face and force Nasrat into throwing the overhand, where he would pull counter. Nasrat’s defense going backwards isn’t great. He really will just back up with a high guard and look to explode counter and back opponents off. Fighters who are composed & able to pull counter while maintaining distance and pushing him back I see giving him problems. He was able to bail himself out against Gouti by hurting him in multiple rounds & his power is serious. To beat Nasrat on the feet, fighters will need to be very durable, control range & the center and back him up. Haqparast definitely has killer instinct & when he hurts opponents, he will go for the kill. He has 9 KO/TKO’s.
Nasrat Haqparast early in his career was much more of a wrestler. He would get big double leg slams & has heavy ground & pound. In the UFC, he hasn’t gone for many takedowns at all. He has just one career UFC takedown. In his match with Marcin Held he struggled with the takedowns & was controlled on the mat. He hasn’t fought a wrestler since then, and likely won’t have to worry about that here. Nasrat isn’t a submission threat with zero in his career & he was submitted one time in his pro debut. Haqparast is a young, hungry fighter with good cardio.
Drew Dober
Age: 31
Height: 5’8
Weight: 155
Reach: 70”
Gym: Elevation Fight Team
From: Colorado
UFC Record: 7-5-1
Fight Matrix: 58
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +275
Drew Dober is a long time UFC veteran now. This will be his 14th UFC fight, and he is in the best form of his career winning four of his last five. Dober bounced back from a submission loss to Beneil Dariush with a quick, first round knockout of Polo Reyes. Dober will be looking to defend his position & take out a touted up & coming prospect. Drew Dober is a huge 155er, and a good southpaw striker. He is very powerful and explosive. He is lighter on his feet & has more tools at his disposal than Haqparast. He has heavy low leg kicks, which he needs to use early & often in this fight. He has a nice jab. He will throw a nice left hook, straight-right hand. He is very good at bobbing & weaving punches in close range & coming over the top with heavy hooks & overhands. He is also good at going forward & using feints to draw out movements & counter opponents. He has solid body & head kicks with his rear leg. He keeps a high pace on fighters and while he doesn’t throw in combination, he will throw a ton of shots. He attacks the legs, body & head, and will slowly break down his opponents. He puts the pressure on & makes the cage small for opponents. He is hittable himself and doesn’t move his head much. He is very durable & able to eat shots and return. He can sometimes throw kicks without setting them up. He has to be very aware of the power Nasrat possesses & just mind his Ps & Qs. He has power himself with 8 KO/TKO’s. He has only been finished with strikes one time.
Dober has rounded out his game & is a much better wrestler than when he first entered the UFC. He has good control in the clinch. He likes to dig double underhooks & get body lock takedowns against the cage. Dober is good at timing double legs in the pocket & that’s what he needs to do here. He is heavy on top but doesn’t do a lot of damage and not a submission threat. He will control on top, advance position & do just enough to not get stood up. Dober has solid takedown defense, but he has had problems with submission defense & grapplers over his career. He has been submitted in his last 3 losses. He won’t have to worry about that here. Dober has 5 career submissions.
This fight should stay standing and I think Haqparast is the better striker and he will be the faster fighter who throws more volume. Either fighter could land a takedown or two here, but I think Haqparast is more likely to do that as well. I see Haqparast winning all 3-rounds for a clear 30-27 decision.
On DraftKings, this isn’t a fight I will get much exposure to. If I was making 5 or less lineups I would full fade both sides actually and hope for a loser scoring Nasrat win. I think Nasrat is my preferred play here because I do like what I have seen from him and he is the better all-around fighter here and he should be landing at a higher pace. I just think he will need a finish to be able to compete with McGregor and Barber wins so I would prefer to just go to them if I can. Nasrat will be much lower owned though, so that would be a reason to use him in GPPs and hope he gets a 1st round finish. Dober is an ok dart throw just because he is cheap, and he could squeeze out a win here if he can keep it close on the feet and mix in some takedowns. I don’t see me getting much of him here, but he will make my player pool with 150 lineups. If I was doing 20 or less, then I doubt Dober would make more than 1-2 lineups and I would be fine with a full fade. Overall, I think there are better fights to target.
Winner – Nasrat Haqparast via Unanimous Decision
Askar Askarov $8,700 vs Tim Elliott $7,500
Askar Askarov
Age: 27
Height: 5’6
Weight: 125
Reach: 67”
Gym: Berkut FC
From: Russia
UFC Record: 0-0-1
Fight Matrix: 8
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-0-1
Current Streak: 1 Draw
Betting Odds: -140
Askar Askarov will be entering an MMA fight for the first time not coming off a win. The positive part is it wasn’t a loss, but Askarov fought to a draw in his UFC debut. The fight was close, but many people felt his opponent Brandon Moreno deserved the victory. Brandon Moreno followed that performance up by beating the breaks off top 5 contender Kai Kara-France so in hindsight that was a good performance from Askar for a UFC debut. I was high on Askarov becoming a contender quickly in the division before the Moreno fight & I still believe that now. Askarov is a fluid striker. He likes to play the outside game early & use a lot of kicks. He has excellent feints & is very composed. He throws nasty leg kicks both inside & outside. He has a stiff, stabbing jab. Askarov will throw nice left hooks. He has a nasty one-two. He has a nice overhand right. He has good head movement and will slip & return with straights & hooks. In the pocket, he is very good at slipping shots, ducking & rolling while returning with clean counters. He has power in his hands when he can walk fighters into his counters. Once he gets his reads & opponents timing, he will start to walk them down. He is very methodical and doesn’t throw a ton, but when he does he’s accurate & powerful. He is very good at landing a punch while grabbing a leg at the same time & getting the takedown. He does hold his hands a bit low & I have seen fighters be very aggressive with him early & have some success with blitzes. Brandon Moreno had success with his speed & pressure. He also landed a nice head kick which did stun Askarov. Askarov showed amazing composure when hurt and never was startled. He recovered & worked his way back into the fight. Overall, he has good defense & movement though. He has good head & body movement and is superb at catching kicks. Askar is undefeated at 10-0-1 & a very confident fighter. He has 3 KO/TKO’s.
Askar Askarov is a dynamic submission grappler. He will pull off submissions in fights most fighters don’t even know how to attempt such as twisters. He is a very strong wrestler too boot. Askarov is very physically strong for the division and muscles fighters around in the clinch. He is excellent at getting the tight waist, circling to the back & landing suplexes. He will punch his way into this position excellently & blends striking to grappling very well. He is also excellent at catching kicks & getting takedowns, along with foot sweeps. On top, he is very heavy & loves to take the back. He has strong control from there & sticks the submissions very well. He has very good defensive wrestling, and even if he does get taken down he’s very good off his back. He has a dangerous guard, throwing up submissions & looking for sweeps. He is also very hard to hold down. He has excellent front chokes he will attack with when opponents shoot in from too far out. He will put opponents to sleep with darces, anacondas & guillotines. Whenever I have seen him taken down, he will immediately look for the double wrist lock from inside his guard. He has great grip strength and can not only manipulate posture but sweep or finish with it. Askar has 7 submissions in his career. He has finished all 10 of his pro wins. Askarov has incredible cardio & his pace never seems to wane. He looks just as fresh in round one as he does in round three & is never rattled in fights. His cardio & composure will take him a long way in his career.
Tim Elliott
Age: 33
Height: 5’7
Weight: 125
Reach: 67”
Gym: Glory MMA & Fitness
From: Missouri
UFC Record: 4-7
Fight Matrix: 14
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +120
Tim Elliott is jumping back on the horse quickly following his first-round submission loss to Deiveson Figueiredo. Elliott dusted the rust off in that fight, with that fight being his first in almost two years. Elliott hasn’t earned a win since December 2017. It’s tough to describe how Elliott strikes on the feet. It looks like he has no rhyme or reason for some of the things he does. His coach James Krause, maybe gave the best description when he said he has anti-timing on the feet. Elliott is constantly moving, switching stances & sometimes just doing weird stuff with his footwork. He will do like an Ali shuffle into a blitz combination, or takedown attempt. Elliott will throw a lot of range finding low kicks as well as oblique kicks. He will throw jabs occasionally. Elliott used his odd movement to create openings for blitz attacks. He will close the distance with straight or hook punch combinations along with front kicks to the body and head. Inside, Elliott will let his hands go, and has good dirty boxing. He will back opponents to the fence with the blitzes, get in the clinch & dig big body shots, and stay busy. Elliott has good head & lateral movement to avoid strikes. Elliott doesn’t get hit a lot in fights & has a knack for forcing fighters to fight his style of fight. Elliot has been finished by strikes just one time in his third pro fight. Elliott has 3 KO/TKO’s but isn’t a big knockout threat.
Tim Elliott has an extremely fan friendly, grappling style. Elliott is extremely active seeker of the takedown and takes down basically everyone he fights. Elliott has a sick single & double leg. He is excellent at using his combinations to create opportunities to duck under into shots. In top position, Elliott is constantly moving. There will never be a stagnant position with Tim Elliott, it is scramble city. Elliott on top is always looking to pass. He likes to get to side control, work for the crucifix position, along with look for arm triangles. Elliott will force opponents to give their backs and is excellent at locking in no hook rear naked chokes and catching guillotines when they do. Elliott will use the guillotine to snap opponents down & take mount. In Elliott’s aggressiveness, he does put himself in some bad positions. Elliott gets his head caught in guillotine positions a lot. Louis Smolka was able to use the guillotine to sweep to mount & do some damage. On bottom, Elliott is fantastic. He has a sick butterfly guard and just is excellent in scrambles. Even when he gets mounted or his back taken, he will stay calm until he can create an opportunity to get a two on one or give his back & reverse. Elliott is excellent at bellying down into single legs and reversing position as well. Elliott is constantly moving, and it demoralizes opponents. Elliott is taking opponents down at will, and then when they get a dominant position on him, he will quickly scramble back to top position, which breaks some opponents. Elliott weaponizes cardio especially early on in fights. He doesn’t pace himself whatsoever & comes out like a bat out of hell. In his first round with Demetrius Johnson, he took him down, locked in a nice guillotine & darce & out struck him. As the fight went on Johnson started using Elliott’s weird movements & kicks on the feet against him taking him down & controlling him on the mat. When Johnson started getting top position, he was able to stay on top of Elliott, but not do much damage. Most fighters don’t have the technique to keep a fighter like Elliott on his back. Elliott did attempt a head & arm throw in a fight vs Ben Nguyen, and Nguyen was able to take the back & choke him out in less than a minute. He was submitted with a guillotine as he shot in in his last match with Figueiredo. Elliott is very dangerous with submissions himself always hunting the neck. He earned an anaconda choke win in his last match. Elliott has 8 submissions and has been submitted 3 times. Historically throughout Elliott’s career he has struggled with wrestlers more than strikers.
This is a close one but should be a fun one with possibly lots of grappling. I think this fight will mostly be a grappling match and whoever can get top control should be the one winning that round. Either could lock up a submission but I think this will be a back and forth fight and I don’t have a strong lean either way. I think Askarov is the more powerful striker, but Elliott is the more experienced fighter and he looks to be the faster guy to me. I don’t see any strong edge for either guy here, but I will take Elliott to squeak out a decision win.
I think this is the fight that will have the most grappling on the card and that makes me interested in it. Both sides of it, but probably more so on the Elliott side because he is much cheaper. I did hear a rumor of him not training much these days as well as him getting into a car crash this camp, as well as him possibly coming into this fight injured. All those things are scaring me away a bit more and I will probably lower my expected ownership on him, but he is still a guy I will look to get in probably 25-30% of my lineups because he has a big ceiling as we have seen from his past DK scores and he is a live dog here. Askarov is very in play as well because he could get multiple takedowns himself and I think he is live for a submission in any round. Plus, all the negative rumors surrounding Elliott. I think he might go overlooked this week at his price tag as well, so I think I want to try and be overweight on him as well. I can see this fight making about half of my lineups this week, but I do prefer it for GPPs and I doubt I look here for a cash LU.
Winner – Tim Elliott via Split Decision
Sodiq Yusuff $8,500 vs Andre Fili $7,700
Sodiq Yusuff
Age: 26
Height: 5’9
Weight: 145
Reach: 71”
Gym: Team Lloyd Irving
From: Nigeria
UFC Record: 3-0
Fight Matrix: 45
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: -145
Sodiq Yusuff is an exceptional athlete. He likes to call himself “Blacksplosive” & you can see why when you watch his fights. His hand speed is something else. He has a very nice jab. He has a nasty one-two. He will throw a one-two, left hook combination. He has a heavy overhand right. He will throw nice hooks in combination in the pocket. His counter right & left hooks in the pocket have big power, and when he lands opponents feel it. He is excellent at slipping & returning. He likes to back himself towards the cage, and goad opponents into trading. He will slip & rip with big hooks, straight punches, and even lead elbows. He is good at going first, landing a shot & moving laterally as well. He will throw nice jabs & straight-right hands to the body. He is very good at controlling the center and a lot of his opponents get backed up behind the warning track. His speed, explosiveness & power seem to really shock people early and they get into a defensive shell. He is good at sliding in & out of range. He hasn’t shown many kicks in previous fights, but in his fight against Mike Davis he was throwing nasty low leg kicks. He has a nice snap kick to the face and round kick to the head also. His speed is truly what makes him a potentially special fighter. The ability to close distance and land punches, and just his pure hand speed is absurd. He has been KO’d one time, but it was in a freak way. He got stunned by the mat and then finished with ground & pound. He has good power and has finished 5 of his 9 wins via KO/TKO.
Yusuff likes to get fighters against the fence and control them there. He will hold opponents against the cage and land knees, bank time and take the round. He is good at getting doubles and keeping top position. He will posture & land big shots from the guard or half guard. He will get the front head lock position and snap opponents back down if they try to get-up. He has very good takedown defense. He is powerful & usually will reverse position against the cage or deny takedowns in the open mat. He has great get-ups and is extremely explosive, so I imagine he is extremely hard to hold down. He attacked with a kimura to reverse position when Mike Davis tried to take him down & stuffed all his takedowns. He has good cardio and is very calm and composed in the cage. He has no submissions, and never been submitted himself. Yusuff needs to stay technical & smart here.
Andre Fili
Age: 29
Height: 5’11
Weight: 145
Reach: 74”
Gym: Team Alpha Male
From: California
UFC Record: 8-5
Fight Matrix: 30
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +125
Andre Fili is a rangy striker. He has a nice jab & good straight-right hand. He will throw hard, inside leg kicks, body kicks & head kicks. He will fake the jab & throw an overhand right. He is good at darting in with a straight punch & angling off immediately. He is always trying to walk opponents into straight punches. He will throw a jab, uppercut combination. Fili has a nasty high kick that he puts fighters out with. His block & returns were excellent in his last match & he showed super sharp, fast counters. He has fairly good movement, but he isn’t the most athletic fighter and opponents can cut him off. He isn’t the fastest with his hand speed & opponents can counter with straight punches. Fili is still durable & will eat shots no problem. He Is dangerous with kicks himself and has 8 KO/TKO finishes. He has been KO/TKO’d twice in his career.
Andre Fili is improving as a grappler, and actually has a really nice double leg. He has great timing on in & explodes in quickly. He doesn’t have the best top control, but he will try to jump on the back when opponents try to stand up. He is long & it gives him an advantage in the clinch. He will land nice knees to the head & body and is very hard to takedown. He does a good job of framing and throwing knees to the body. On top, he isn’t great and just really holds position. His takedown defense has looked very good recently, he stuffed all of Denis Bermudez’s takedowns. He was able to jump on Michael Johnson’s back and almost lock in a rear naked choke. He isn’t a big submission threat with just 3 in his career. He has been submitted twice himself. Fili has solid cardio & will push through fatigue to get the win.
This is my 2nd favorite fight on the card. Fili is a well-rounded vet and should look to mix in takedowns for this fight. Yusuff is a stud on the feet and he looks like a future title contender to me. I think Fili will be in trouble here if this fight stays standing but I do expect him to keep it close enough on the feet to where he could steal rounds if he is able to mix in wrestling. If Yusuff is taken down just one time, he could lose the round because we have no idea how he will look off his back against an experienced guy like Fili. If he can stuff takedowns, then I like him to win the striking exchanges and possibly get a KO along the way.
Yusuff is my preferred play here on DraftKings and I think he gets a knockout. At his price, if that KO comes in round 1 then I think he is very live for the $100k lineup so he is a guy I want to try and be overweight on this weekend even though I expect him to be highly owned. This is a big step up though and Fili should look to grapple here, so I think he is in play as well but GPPs only because I think he has a low floor. Yusuff walks forward and throws big bombs and leg kicks though so I think almost every strike he throws will be a significant strike and I don’t see Fili holding up for 3 rounds. This will be a top 3-4 fight for me in my own lineups this week and it will be in at least half my lineups.
Winner – Sodiq Yusuff via 1st round (T)KO
Maycee Barber $9,500 vs Roxanne Modafferi $6,700
Maycee Barber
Age: 21
Height: 5’5
Weight: 125
Reach: 65”
Gym: Roufusport MMA
From: Wisconsin
UFC Record: 3-0
Fight Matrix: 7
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W8
Betting Odds: -900
Maycee Barber will be looking to continue her ascent towards a title shot with a victory over Roxanne Modafferi. Barber is 3-0 in the UFC & her last two wins have come over strong competition. She is getting the biggest name of her career in this matchup in Roxanne who is a pioneer for woman’s MMA. A win here for Barber would likely push her into top five contention. Barber is very aggressive. She is a developing striker but has nice kicks and can switch stances. She will throw a nice check left hook & decent overhand or straight-right. She will switch stances and has a nice straight-left hand down the middle. She will throw a rear uppercut, left hook combination. She has a strong right hook. She will go high with kicks as well, and she’s always coming forward and putting the pressure on fighters. Her kicks are the best part of her striking game. She throws a lot of inside leg kicks, front and side kicks to the face and body. She will throw question mark kicks. She will throw nice round kicks to the head and likes to throw them with both legs. She follows her round kick with a straight-right hand. She does a good job of feinting and faking before closing the distance. She doesn’t have good hands & can really telegraph her punches, making her easy to counter. She isn’t the greatest defensive striker. She doesn’t move her head & holds her chin high. She will also lean back to defend shots instead of using footwork. That was really shown in her last match where she was dropped & hurt multiple times with punches in round one. Barber just is undeterred though & hits hard herself. She will continue to come forward eat shots to give her own until she breaks opponents. That will be effective vs Roxanne & if she hurts Roxy on the feet, I see her most likely getting the finish in the clinch. Her striking really still isn’t that good to me though, and she won’t be able to be as open against someone who’s solely looking to take her down. Barber definitely has big power and can knock girls out. Barber has 5 TKO victories in a row.
Maycee Barber is a good grappler herself. She is nasty in the clinch & very powerful. She will move girls around easily & land big elbows & knees to the body & head. The fighters she’s faced have all been strawweights & this is her first flyweight opponent, so we will see if she’s able to dominate Roxy like that. I do feel she will have an advantage in the clinch. Barber isn’t super active for takedowns, but she will get some clinch takedowns at times. When she takes top position, she is very aggressive with ground & pound and looks to take the back & get rear naked chokes. Maycee Barber’s takedown defense hasn’t been tested in the UFC. On the regional scene she did struggle with the wresting & top control of Mallory Martin. Martin was able to take her down with doubles & body locks along with controlling on top for long periods. Barber did show a good guard and solid sweeps. She was able to attack with some triangles & armbars and does have an armbar victory. Barber needs to stay off her back in this fight by any means necessary. Barber trains in elevation so she has great cardio. She has 2 submissions in her career.
Roxanne Modafferi
Age: 37
Height: 5’6
Weight: 125
Reach: 69”
Gym: Syndicate MMA
From: Nevada
UFC Record: 2-4
Fight Matrix: 17
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +600
Roxanne Modafferi is one of the most accomplished female MMA fighters of all time. Modafferi actually is the longest tenured women’s MMA fighter in the UFC going pro in 2003. She is one of a select few women who will be able to say they’ve competed in three decades of MMA. Modafferi has been trading wins & losses in her second UFC stint, but is entrenched as a massive underdog in this spot. That will not scare Roxanne who won as a massive underdog in Russia last year vs Antonina Shevchenko. She will be ready to go & give it her all. Roxanne is awkward on the feet, she isn’t very athletic and has stiff, slow movements. She has gotten better at accentuating her reach and trying to make her punches long instead of loopy. She has a solid jab, good head movement and improved lateral movement. She will throw straight punches, but sometimes struggles to find range and throws at air. She has ok hand speed and can land the straight-right hand. She will throw inside leg kicks, high kicks and tries to be tricky throwing question mark kicks and spinning backfists. She tries to keep high volume and throw a lot of shots. She is much better now at going first & being willing to take a shot to give one. She doesn’t have knockout power, but she has a strong chin and lives up to her nickname of the “Happy Warrior”. She has only been finished twice by strikes in her career. She will finish fighters when she can get mount position & has 6 KO/TKO’s. She has finished 5 of her last 6 wins 4 by TKO.
Modafferi is a strong grappler showing that off in her last match. She has gotten better at entries for her judo trips and clinch takedowns. She was able to continuously get ahold of Shevchenko in the clinch & take her down. She got a nice double leg takedown against Barb Honchak and has pretty solid timing. When gets on top, she will land hard heavy elbows and go for the finish. She probably has the best mount in the division and when she gets there, has phenomenal control and throws hard punches and elbows. She has finished many recent fights this way. She has good submissions like armbars & RNC’s. She can get bullied in the clinch and controlled like she was vs Emily Whitmire and Nikko Montano. She was taken down by Sijara Eubanks multiple times. She doesn’t have great takedown defense, but she is good off her back. She has good armbars and triangles and is active off her back. She can get hit with ground & pound elbows. She slows down as the fight goes on but showed strong cardio in her last fight. She has 6 submissions & been submitted 3 times in her career.
This fight doesn’t make any sense to me. Barber is a future title contender and Roxy is towards the end of her career and coming off a bad loss. The only way Roxy can win this fight is by getting top control and winning 2 of 3 rounds or getting a submission. Barber is going to be the way better striker and she has brutal ground and pound if she gets takedowns herself. I think Barber pieces Roxy up on the feet until the ref steps in here.
If you can afford Barber, then I like her in all formats. I think she should dominate this fight and if she gets top control I think she will finish with GNP. The only thing is her high price tag and Conor being $100 less. Those are the two best plays on the slate IMO though, so Barber will probably be a core play for me and likely in all my Cowboy LUs since it will be easier to afford her there. If she goes out there and wins a striking decision, then she won’t pay off that huge price tag, so she isn’t a must play here in GPPs, but I think she is a lock in cash games. Roxy is going to need to get top control here to stand any chance, but she will be the lowest owned fighter on the card if you want to play her for that reason. She will be a full fade for me though.
Winner – Maycee Barber via 1st round (T)KO
Diego Ferreira $9,200 vs Anthony Pettis $7,200
Carlos Diego Ferreira
Age: 35
Height: 5’9
Weight: 155
Reach: 74”
Gym: Fortis MMA
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 7-2
Fight Matrix: 16
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: -230
Carlos Diego Ferreira is very aggressive & will walk opponents down and throw bombs. He has a nice jab and a good, straight-right hand. He has a good left hook and dangerous uppercuts in the pocket. He lets his hands go in close range and is very aggressive. He will throw a left hook, right hook, right uppercut combination in close range. He will throw a double jab, straight-right hand or double jab, uppercut combo. He has nice leg kicks, and he likes to end combinations with head kicks. He has good front kicks to the body & head. He will attack the body with hooks and straight punches and keeps heavy, forward pressure and volume on opponents. He has dangerous spins in close range and will land hard spinning backfists. He will land hard body kicks, and he does a good job of slipping punches in the pocket and returning with straights. In Diego’s last fight he showed killer cardio. He kept an insane pace & walked down Taisumov, letting off volume for three rounds. He doesn’t move his head & is pretty hittable. He has also been hurt to the body in a recent match. Diego is very tough & durable though. He has been finished just one time by Dustin Poirier. Diego’s striking has really up ticked. He has 3 KO/TKO’s but two have come in his last four fights.
Diego Ferreira is one of the best Jiu-Jitsu fighters in the sport. In this fight, I think Diego will be trying to use a similar game plan to the one he used vs Poirier and look to control against the cage & go for takedowns or even pull guard. He was able to get good position in the clinch on Poirier like double underhooks but couldn’t get a takedown or do much with the position. Diego isn’t the best wrestler & that could be an issue in this fight. I think for him to finish, he’s definitely going to have to get it to the ground. He showed again how truly elite his BJJ is vs Khabilov almost submitting him multiple times & being extremely creative & dynamic in scrambles. If this fight hits the mat even if Pettis is in top position, it’s not where he wants to be. Ferreira has 6 submission victories. He has never been submitted. Ferreira has great cardio also & will keep be looking to melt Pettis.
Anthony Pettis
Age: 32
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 72.5”
Gym: Roufusport MMA
From: Wisconsin
UFC Record: 9-8
Fight Matrix: 5
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +190
Anthony Pettis is still one of the premier range strikers in the UFC. He has extremely fast kicks and his left body kick is one of the nastiest body kicks in MMA history. He has really nice leg kicks which he used to chop down Wonderboy. He is fast and likes to switch stances and use the opposite stance of his opponent, so he can land those body kicks. He uses a lot of feints and fakes and doesn’t really throw a lot of volume but keeps fighters guessing, off balance and will land big, hard shots. He has a nice check left hook and a good straight-right hand. He has gotten better at using lateral movement and running opponents into his punches. He will need to have that lateral movement on point for this fight. He will open up and start to throw some crazy kicks at times such as jumping spinning heel kicks, jumping roundhouse kicks, kicks off the cage etc. When opponents give him space and let him strike, he is elite. When they pressure him and jam his kicks and get him moving backwards, he is much less effective. Pettis has to stay technical here, move, angle, chop the legs, body & then go up top. Pettis has 11 KO/TKO’s. His durability used to be excellent, but it seems to be fading a bit. He wasn’t finished in his first 24 fights, but in his last 6 he’s been finished 3 times. He has only been TKO’d in action one time & didn’t answer the bell for round 3 against Ferguson.
Anthony Pettis is a very underrated Jiu-Jitsu player. He isn’t the best or most active wrestler & gets most of his dubs off his backs. Pettis struggles with letting guys push him against the cage and getting in on his legs. His wrestling is very suspect, and he struggles to stop himself from being held against the cage and being taken down with chain wrestling. When he is taken down, he doesn’t get-up very well, but his Jiu-Jitsu from his guard is straight nasty. He does a great job of controlling the wrist and then attacking with triangles. He throws his legs up extremely fast and he will also attack with a slick guillotine or armbar as well. He has good kimuras. He has very good sweeps himself and will get top position but doesn’t have an amazing top game. A lot of the times he will just get back up. In his last match, Anthony Pettis got out grappled thoroughly by Nate Diaz. This fight he likely will be at a disadvantage if it hits the mat as well. Pettis has 7 submissions & been submitted one time.
If Pettis was in his prime, then this line might be flipped. He just isn’t the same guy anymore and Ferreira is in the prime of his career right now. This seems like a spot for the UFC to try and get Ferreira a bigger name by beating a big name. Ferreira is going to be the fighter, pushing forward and winning the boxing exchanges and he is the better grappler of the two as well. Pettis is going to want to keep this fight at range and win with kicks and I don’t see that happening. I think a knockout is Pettis’ best shot at a win here, but I think the pressure from Ferreira will be too much for him.
Name wise, this should have been the co-main event and I think it could get ownership as if it was. I think both sides will be a bit higher owned than they should be, and that makes me like it less. My preferred play is Pettis because I think if he wins, it would probably be a knockout and that would score well. He will probably be one of the higher owned underdogs though because of his name so if you want leverage here you’ll probably need to get more than 25%. I am not sure what I will do with him yet, but I can see me being around that range and I think he is a fine cash play with 3-rounds to work with. I think Diego is going to win this fight though, I just don’t see him scoring highly. I think he wins a decision and that makes me want to be way underweight to him if he is going to be popular at all. He will make my pool this weekend, but I won’t have much of him and if I was making 10 or less lineups I would full fade him here. I think we can avoid this fight as a whole as well and let the field soak up the ownership and hope it is a ~75-point Diego win.
Winner – Diego Ferreira via Unanimous Decision
Claudia Gadelha $8,300 vs Alexa Grasso $7,900
Claudia Gadelha
Age: 31
Height: 5’4
Weight: 115
Reach: 63.5”
Gym: Nick Catone’s MMA
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 6-4
Fight Matrix: 8
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -115
Claudia Gadelha has been a staple in the top five of the division but has been showing glimpses of slowing down. She won her last match via decision, but it wasn’t a great fight & is just 2-2 in her last four fights. This will be Claudia’s second training camp with Mark Henry in New Jersey, so we will see how she’s progressing there. If Gadelha can turn back time and beat Grasso, she will prove she is still a threat. Gadelha is fast with her hands and entries into her punching combos. She throws very nice straight-right hand, left hook and left uppercut combos. She has nice elbows in close and will sit in the pocket and throw down against fighters. She is awesome exiting and entering the clinch with elbows and punches and they have big power. She is comfortable in exchanges and throws hard hooks. She has good overhand rights and wide left hooks. She will throw some decent body & head kicks occasionally. Gadelha has 2 KO/TKO’s and will definitely have the power advantage in this matchup. She is super tough with a great chin and has never been finished.
Gadelha is an elite grappler and bruising wrestler. She is very strong in the clinch. She does a great job of using her hooks to close the distance and grab the Muay Thai clinch where she throws brutal elbows, punches & knees. She is very strong in the clinch with body lock trips and throws. She is explosive with double leg takedowns and does a good job of getting them against the cage or reactively in space. She is very heavy on top with great guard passing. She does a great job of getting to side control where she lands hard elbows. She does a good job of taking the back and getting rear naked chokes. She has nice armbars also. She hasn’t gotten very many submissions in the UFC, more relying on ground & pound and control, but she does have 7 career submissions.
Alexa Grasso
Age: 26
Height: 5’5
Weight: 115
Reach: 66”
Gym: Lobo Gym MMA
From: Mexico
UFC Record: 3-3
Fight Matrix: 14
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -105
Alexa Grasso is young evolving & looking better than ever fight after fight. She lost a majority decision in her last match, which was hotly disputed. In my opinion, she clearly defeated Carla Esparza, but the judges disagreed. Grasso still looked great in this matchup & showed a well-rounded skill set. Grasso is a good striker. She is fairly fast & likes to go forward and walk opponents down. She will throw inside, outside leg kicks. She has an alright jab and a good straight-right hand. She has a nice one-two. She will throw a nice straight-left hand lead, and straight-left, overhand right, right hook combination. She is at her best when she can back opponents up against the cage & unload with combinations. She has very fast hand speed & will unload with left & right straights & hooks mixed in with uppercuts. Her straight-right hand has power, and that’s the shot she usually hurts opponents with. She will mix nice front & round kicks to the body in between the combinations. She has a solid round kick to the head. When she does let go like that, she tends to forget about defense & leave her chin right up in the air. While Grasso has solid foot speed, when she strikes she isn’t in & out, she is flat footed & there to be countered. Fighters like Felice Herrig & Randa Markos were able to counter her single shots with combinations and make her fight moving backwards, where her offense is limited. Grasso can be low volume at times & let her opponents dictate the pace of the fight. Her last fight was probably the best striking performance of her career as she was able to go first & dominate. She can also get her kicks caught & be taken down that way. Grasso doesn’t have the biggest power, but she has some pop & 4 KO/TKO’s. She has never been finished by strikes.
Alexa Grasso is an average wrestler. She doesn’t necessarily have the wrestling to get the fight to the ground, but she has great takedown defense & scrambling ability. She has a strong underhook game in the clinch & will control opponents in that position while landing knees and elbows over the top. Grasso will go for singles occasionally against the cage. She will use her sprawl to take the back. Grasso also will use a front choke, and even flying guillotines to counter the takedowns. Grasso was able to deny most of the takedown attempts from Randa Markos, and even used the underhook & heavy hips to reverse to top position. The only way Randa Markos was able to take Alexa Grasso down was through catching her kicks. Carla Esparza took her down multiple times & won the fight in that way. Grasso has an active guard and will throw up armbars & triangles. She almost broke the arm of Carla Esparza in her last match. Grasso is hard to hold down & will work back up to her feet. She likes to belly down & transition into a single leg or body lock. It does expose her back & she was submitted via rear naked choke trying to stand up vs Suarez. Markos was able to get to dominant positions and landed some good G&P from mount. In her last fight, she was submitted very quickly vs the best grappler in the division in Tatiana Suarez. She was actually able to deny the initial takedown attempt, and reversed position against the cage. She stood up a couple times from bottom, but overall, she was rag dolled & submitted fairly quickly. When she takes top position, she is very aggressive looking for G&P & advancing position. Due to that she doesn’t have the greatest top control & fighters are able to scramble back to her feet. She isn’t a submission threat with 0 submissions & has just been submitted one time in her career. Grasso has great cardio & usually has a strong third round.
Gadelha is the better grappler here and Grasso is the better striker. If this fight ends ITD I think it would be a 1st round Gadelha submission. Gadelha does not have 3 rounds of wrestling in her gas tank though, so we never know what we will get from her. If she wrestles round 1, she could dominate that round and win with a submission but if Grasso survives the storm, then Gadelha will start to slow down and attempt less takedowns and Grasso can pull away and win rounds 2 and 3 on the feet. I am going to favor Gadelha here because if she ever fixes her cardio issue I think she would be at least a 2/1 favorite in this spot.
Claudia is my preferred play here because of her grappling advantage and her submission upside. I just don’t trust her anymore, so I can’t load up on here or make her a core play, but I think she is fine in all formats. I will probably look to be in line with the field or slightly overweight on Claudia here and I think she has 1st round submission potential here. If she had a better gas tank then she could also have a high ceiling in a decision win, but she doesn’t have the cardio to wrestle hard for 3-rounds. Grasso is one of the more live underdogs on this card, but I don’t see her finishing, so I don’t like her much for GPPs. I think she is a fine cash game play, but I see her getting maybe ~65-points if she wins here and I think she will be somewhat popular this week because a lot of people are picking her to win and the betting line is even. I am going to go underweight to her this weekend and if I was making 10 or less lineups she would probably be a full fade for me in GPPs.
Winner – Claudia Gadelha via 1st round Submission
Maurice Greene $8,400 vs Aleksei Oleinik $7,800
Maurice Greene
Age: 33
Height: 6’6
Weight: 258
Reach: 85”
Gym: Factory X
From: Illinois
UFC Record: 3-1
Fight Matrix: 58
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -130
Maurice Greene suffered a setback for the first time in his UFC career in his last match. He took a risk & travelled to Russia to fight a tough Russian, but unfortunately was knocked out in round one. I have to give Greene his respect though, because the man has transformed his body & is much more dedicated to his career. Even in the loss he looked the best he’s ever had physically in his last match & his best days are definitely ahead of him in my opinion. Greene is a 6’7 HW who is athletic & can move. He is well-rounded, has good striking, and submissions off his back. Maurice Greene is an athletic striker. He has a snappy jab & was able to drop Jeff Hughes with it. He will use double jabs to get inside. He nice throw one-twos. Greene will throw front & round kicks to the body. He throws one-twos to body kick combinations. He has good head kicks & will throw front kicks to the face. Greene likes to throw a lot of lead uppercuts. He has nice lead elbows & knees. He has closed the distance with flying knees & lead elbows when fighters are against the cage. Greene is a fast guy & throws in combination. He keeps the volume high & is a finisher. Greene is going to have the speed & volume advantage in this matchup. He tends to drop his right hand when he throws a left straight or jab. Greene looked weak to the body in certain fights, but in better shape, I’m sure he will take them better. When Greene gets hurt, he doesn’t move his feet & just shells up. Greene doesn’t have big power & just has two career KO/TKO’s. In his last match with Junior Albino, he did get a first round knockout. Greene can get tired when opponents have pressured him in the past. He waits for his opponents once he slows down & can get picked apart in later rounds. Jeff Hughes & Junior Albini were able to attack the body very effectively. Greene also leans back with his chin in the air which could be very dangerous in this fight. He is used to having a reach advantage & he won’t in this match. He has fought in Glory and was knocked out twice. He was hit with a big two-piece combination against Juan Espino & dropped. He has a questionable chin in my opinion and was KO’d for the first time in his MMA career last match.
Maurice Greene is not a bad grappler. Greene is strong in the clinch & looks improved in that aspect. He has some nice knees to the body & head. He will throw nice elbows from the Muay Thai clinch. He was landing solid shots off the break against Hughes. Greene is an average wrestler, and I imagine Aleksei trying to take him down. He is long, so he has a dangerous guard. He will throw up triangles off his back & got one in his UFC debut. Even though he isn’t great at the technique, not many HWs use triangles, so they can be easier to catch them in. Greene’s guard is hard to pass, but if fighters can, he struggles. He doesn’t have great get-ups, and just lays flat on his back. He got his back taken & rear naked choked vs Juan Espino. Jeff Hughes was able to take him down in their first match and control him on the mat. Greene does have 3 triangle choke finishes & 4 submissions overall. He has been submitted just the one time.
Aleksei Oleinik
Age: 42
Height: 6’2
Weight: 235
Reach: 80”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Russia
UFC Record: 6-4
Fight Matrix: 18
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +110
Aleksei Oleinik needs to bounce back here after two consecutive losses. He has lost back to back fights via KO/TKO & at 42 a loss may be the end of his career. There have been rumors of retirement before his last match, but I guess they were false. Oleinik is extremely experienced with over 70 career fights. He is going to have to lean on that experience heavily here against a younger, more athletic Maurice Greene. Aleksei is a bit of a plodder on the feet who slowly walks opponents down with his hands a bit low, so he can come over the top with long, casting hooks with both arms. He will walk through their shots to land his own overhand, right hook or left hand. He has big power in his overhand right, as he dropped Travis Browne with it and KO’d Jared Rosholt. He will work into the clinch and then land nice punches to the body while looking for body lock takedowns. He is very long so he can throw his casting hooks from a distance and get a hold of opponents pretty quickly. He has a nice uppercut and will throw a solid leg kick as well. He throws everything with full power.
Aleksei Oleinik is one of the best heavyweight Jiu-Jitsu practitioners in MMA history, he has 45 submission victories and is very unorthodox with his attacks having landed 10 Ezekiel chokes. He has gotten an Ezekiel choke from being fully mounted against Viktor Pesta in the UFC. You will see him get that grip and even pull opponents on top of him with it from the standing clinch position. He is very comfortable both off his back and on top. He has a good guard and will trap a wrist and attack with triangles and armbars. He does a good job of getting back up out of side control. He has nice sweeps and was able to sweep Travis Browne get a single leg and ultimately take the back and choke him out. He has an amazing squeeze and gets people to tap very quickly. He has finished his last 14 wins. He ducks his head when he strikes sometimes and can get timed with knees and uppercuts. He is also one of the slowest heavyweights in the division, so in space for long periods of time and he gets lit up. He needs to close the distance and make it an ugly brawl on the feet and ultimately get it to the ground and finish the job.
It’s hard to ever be confident in Oleinik because sometimes all he needs to do is get ahold of his opponent one time and he can lock up a choke submission. I think Greene is going to be the better overall fighter here and will win the striking exchanges, but I don’t know that he can stay out of Oleinik’s chokes. If he can’t say away from him, I am going to take Oleinik to get another submission win here but I don’t see me betting him at almost even money.
This is the 2nd best fight to target in GPPs. I wouldn’t think about taking either guy in cash games because they both have 0-point floors. However, we have a -800 FDGTD line which is the highest on the card and Fight Doesn’t Start Round 2 is -125. Somebody is likely going down early in this fight whether that is a Greene KO or an Aleksei submission. I am not confident in either side, but this is a fight I will load up on and be pretty evenly split between the two. If I was making just 1 lineup I would take Aleksei, simply because he is cheaper.
Winner – Aleksei Oleinik via 1st round Submission
Holly Holm $8,900 vs Raquel Pennington $7,300
Holly Holm
Age: 38
Height: 5’8
Weight: 135
Reach: 69”
Gym: Jackson-Wink MMA
From: New Mexico
UFC Record: 5-5
Fight Matrix: 3
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -135
Holly Holm is a former boxing champion but has really made her money with her kicks in MMA. She likes to use her feints, footwork & movement to pot shot opponents on the outside with kicks. Holm’s boxing is more used as a countering mechanism. She will throw jabs & crosses out there to try to gauge distance, but she can struggle to find her range with punches when forced to go first. She is very good though at countering with her straight-left hand & exiting. She also has a nice check right hook. Her lead leg is very active. She will use the oblique kicks to the knees to close the distance. She will also throw nasty, lead leg sidekicks to the body & head. Her left kick is the more powerful of the two. She will attack with nice round kicks to the inside of the legs, body & head. Once she gets opponents reaching to the body, she will bring the kick up to the head. She has a very nice question mark kick. Holm will slip shots & return with kicks and fighters always have to be weary of it when they’re fighting her. She has multiple head kick knockouts. She has 8 KO/TKO’s & was finished by strikes for the first time in MMA in her last match.
Holly Holm has rounded out her game & we finally got to see some wrestling from her in her match with Megan Anderson. She was able to get multiple clinch takedowns against Megan Anderson & smothered her from top position. She isn’t really dangerous on top, but she has good control. In the clinch, she is very physically strong. She will back opponents to the cage easily with double underhooks. She doesn’t get much offense off from the position, but she can control & stall. She was able to do this against the much bigger Cris Cyborg. Holm is very good at defending judo in the clinch. Holm has good distance control & is tough to takedown. She really has only been taken down by Miesha Tate, and she defended the majority of her takedowns. Holm off her back probably will be in trouble. She was submitted by Miesha Tate, but she is not in the quick tap club. She will most likely not tap if in a bad position. Holm has been submitted one time & has zero submissions. She has always shown good cardio & comes ready to go to war.
Raquel Pennington
Age: 31
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 67.5”
Gym: Altitude MMA
From: Colorado
UFC Record: 7-4
Fight Matrix: 5
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +115
Rocky Pennington is a tough, gritty girl who is pretty well-rounded. Pennington has a good jab, a good right hook and does a good job of controlling distance and staying just on the outside of opponent’s punches. She has a nasty jab. She will use it to control distance very well. She will add some leg and body kicks into her combinations. She has a nice uppercut in close. Pennington is very durable, and when she gets hit she likes to try to come forward and get it back immediately. She needs to be in close to be effective, as she is not a big kicker and can struggle to find her range from the outside. She will dig to the body with shots as well and she loves to get in wars. She will definitely take a shot to give her own and try to wear fighters down as the fight goes longer. She was broken a bit in her last two fights and took her first KO/TKO loss of her career vs Amanda Nunes. She took some massive shots in both matches and has a very solid chin. She doesn’t have big power herself, and only has one TKO in her career.
Pennington likes to fight in the clinch, and fight in dirty boxing range. She has good, short punches, elbows and knees. She has good head positioning and she will trap a wrist and throw punches with the other. She likes to land hard knees to the body, and she wears fighters out in the clinch. Pennington doesn’t have great wrestling, but she is strong and gritty. She has a decent double leg and she does a good job of timing it in the center. If she doesn’t get the takedown, she will throw shots on the break and I see her trying to do that in this match. On top, Pennington has solid ground & pound, but her go to moves are chokes. She has a nasty guillotine and will attack with chokes such as bulldog chokes. She is opportunistic and can snatch up the neck and finish a fight very quickly. She has solid takedown defense, and she will attack with the guillotine when fighters shoot in on her. She has 4 career submissions and been submitted just one time herself.
These two fought back in 2015 for Holm’s UFC debut and she ended up winning a Split Decision. I see this fight being similar to the first, but I do think Holm is levels above Rocky in the striking department, so I think she is going to get the job done again in a 15-minute striking battle. I don’t see Holm getting taken down here and Rocky was 0 for 5 on takedowns in their first match and she threw and landed less significant strikes in the fight. I see Holly landing the harder shots and Rocky’s best chance of winning is to out-volume Holm and hope to win on the scorecards in a close fight.
This is a full fade for me all around. I think Holly gets the win, but she doesn’t have the volume to pay off her price tag unless she gets a KO here. I don’t see that happening and I think this will be similar to their first fight where she wins with a low DK score. I am not interested in Rocky either because even if she wins I think it would be a very close decision and she probably wouldn’t get near 10x. Full fade for me but I think Rocky is an OK cash punt if you want to go that route. I prefer Pettis myself.
Winner – Holly Holm via Unanimous Decision
Conor McGregor $9,400 vs Donald Cerrone $6,800
Conor McGregor
Age: 31
Height: 5’9
Weight: 170
Reach: 74”
Gym: SBG Ireland
From: Ireland
UFC Record: 9-2
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year 2 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -350
Conor McGregor is one of the best strikers in the history of MMA. He likes to walk down his opponents with his hands low, giving them the illusion that he is open to be hit. He then will land his famous pull counter left hand. He has a great kicking game, and it is what mainly sets up his punches. He used nice inside and outside leg kicks against Nate Diaz, and commonly uses the oblique kick to the knee. He has nasty, front snap kicks to the body, really taking the steam out of his opponents. He has nice spinning kicks and capoeira kicks, but I highly doubt we see those in this fight. I do think Conor will throw the occasional front kick to the body and the oblique kick to the knee of Cowboy. Conor is immensely aware in the cage and extremely calm in the fire. He does a fantastic job of slipping punches in the pocket, countering and always calculating what he wants to do next. He has nasty uppercuts in the pocket, and when he lets his combinations go, he is arguably the most accurate puncher in UFC history.
I would say Conor’s wrestling is a bit underrated. He showed decent takedown defense against Khabib, but ultimately was largely taken down at will. He has a good double leg takedown and very nice single legs. His defensive wrestling is very good. For one, his footwork and movement make it very hard to time a shot on him or get in on a body lock. He has phenomenal balance in the cage and is never out of position or makes himself easily taken down. He has a very nice sprawl, he is very strong in the clinch and is able to muscle his way out of situations. He was taken down by an explosive wrestler with well-timed shots in Chad Mendes, similar to the ones Donald uses. Nate Diaz was able to get him up against the cage and control him for portions of the fight. He was able to get deep on several double legs that were defended nicely, and ultimately did get a trip takedown in the clinch. If McGregor allows Donald to get in these positions against the cage, I believe he will undoubtedly end up on his back. He has shown some good BJJ off his back, he swept Nate Diaz with a z guard in their first fight. He didn’t have much off his back against Mendes and was really beat up with some good elbows and controlled. He has a very good chin, but he does have a tendency to gas out and find a way out if the going gets tough. He will need to keep this fight in the center of the octagon. If he can use oblique kicks to the knees and lateral movement to walk Cerrone into his left hand, that is his best chance at victory. He cannot let himself get backed up behind the black line in the cage, and anytime his back is near the cage, he should act like it’s lava and get out of there. This is a winnable fight for both guys, but will the layoff effect McGregor, we will have to wait & see.
Donald Cerrone
Age: 36
Height: 6’1
Weight: 170
Reach: 73”
Gym: BMF Ranch
From: New Mexico
UFC Record: 23-10
Fight Matrix: 16
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +290
Donald Cowboy Cerrone is a nasty Muay Thai striker, and his highlight reel of finishes shows that. Cerrone throws vicious kicks, beating up opponent’s legs first and then attacking the body and head. He has the most head kick knockouts in UFC history. He has okay hands, but in boxing range, he seems like he is nowhere near as comfortable as kicking range. He doesn’t have tight punching, or the greatest defense and he can be exploited in boxing range. He does have a nice check left hook in the pocket, and he has gotten better at dealing with pressure fighters. He throws a nice, front leg sidekick and stomp kick to the leg. He throws a stabbing front kick to the body and at distance really beats up all parts of the body. He uses takedowns to almost disguise a step-in knee at times and it’s beautiful. He throws a step-in knee after he gets denied the shot and even follows with a head kick to close the combination. If Cerrone can find his rhythm and range, fighters are usually screwed. When he is going forward, he is one of the nastiest strikers in the division. Cerrone has obviously taken a lot of damage recently, and he cannot get hit clean against a knockout artist like Conor. Cerrone has 10 KO/TKO’s all in the UFC, and 5 of his last 6 wins have been KO/TKO finishes. He has been finished with strikes 6 times himself, including in his last fight just over 4 months ago.
Cerrone has long been an underrated grappler. He has always been very dangerous with his Jiu-Jitsu, but he has improved his wrestling immensely in recent years. Cerrone has gotten much more wrestling heavy in recent fights, and it’s a smart thing to do since he is getting up there in age. Cerrone has good timing on double leg shots and he also has good body lock takedowns. On top, Cerrone is good, he has strong top control and he likes to get to the back. He gets most of his submissions after he stuns and drops his opponent. He is very good at jumping on the back and locking in the rear naked choke. He has good takedown defense himself and is hard to hold down. Off his back, he is very dangerous. He has nasty triangles and armbars to go along with very nice sweeps. He had that nasty armbar over Mike Perry last year. He does a great job of getting omaplata sweeps in the guard and will reverse top position. If anyone is to try to get it to the ground I think it will be Donald. I could see him shooting a double leg or two if the pressure starts becoming too much. He has 17 submissions in his career and has been submitted just one time.
These are two of my all-time favorite fighters and I can’t wait for this fight. I do wish we got to see this a few years ago in Cowboy’s prime, but this should still be an awesome fight as long as it lasts. I do favor McGregor here though. He is the much better boxer of the two, he has better movement on the feet, and he has more power as well. Both have great kicks but that is going to be the range Cowboy will want to keep it at while on the feet, and his best shot of a win is getting the fight to the mat. If this fight stays standing, I think McGregor will knock him out within 2 rounds. If Cowboy can mix in wrestling, he can lock up a submission in any round and if he can make it into the championship rounds, he probably finds a way to win this. I don’t know if Conor can keep up Cerrone’s pace for 25-minutes, so I do think he is going to need the finish or win the first 3-rounds and hold on. Cowboy isn’t as durable as he used to be though, so I don’t see this going to the judges and I will pick McGregor to get a knockout in the 1st or 2nd round.
All-in. Stack in cash. The winner is very likely to be in the $100k lineup because if Conor wins it will probably be an early KO and he could get multiple drops. If Cowboy wins, he is a lock for the optimal no matter how that win happens. I think I will be higher on the Conor side this weekend because I do see him getting the early KO. I think he is the best play on the board this week and he will be a core play for me. I want to be 100% on this fight though so I will have maybe 70% Conor and 30% Cowboy and hope I have a live lineup going into this fight. Load up on this fight and go with whoever you like more. If you wanted to go 70/30 in favor of Cowboy, I think that is fine as well. I think this has a floor of 110+ though so I will be stacking in cash and I am fine with a 1st round Conor KO being the outcome with that stack. Just lock in the win and 100+ and hope to get your other spots right.
Winner – Conor McGregor via 1st round (T)KO
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
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