Daily Fantasy Sports
Sharp App
Season Long Fantasy
Free Month
Wall of Champions
Discord

BigMarley3’s UFC on ESPN 7 DraftKings Breakdown

BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown

 

Event – UFC on ESPN 7                                               Location – Washington, D.C.

 

This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in D.C. DraftKings has some OK contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $120k being paid out. I will probably stick to the top GPPs this week and throw a handful of entries at that $25k prize. Typically, I stay around 20 lineups each week and go after that big GPP and then max the $4 20-entry max GPP as well. I might go with 15 total lineups this week to max the $5 Qualifier as well. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.

A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.

 

With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights and hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:

 

Makhmud Muradov $9,400 vs Trevor Smith $6,800

Makhmud Muradov

Age: 29

Height: 6’2

Weight: 185

Reach: 75.5”

Gym: Monster Gym

From: Uzbekistan

UFC Record: 1-0

Fight Matrix: 64

Last Fought: 2 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W12

Betting Odds: -420

 

Makhmud Muradov is turning around 2 months after his UFC debut & jumping in short notice to take on Trevor Smith. Muradov had a very entertaining fight with Alessio Di Chirico that he won via decision. Muradov has been fighting at a torrid pace. This will be his sixth fight of 2019. Muradov is a strong athlete. He has good movement and is very fast & explosive when closing the distance. Muradov has a nasty jab, and a great left hook. He is always moving and giving different angles after the jab. He is light on his feet and switches stances frequently. Muradov will touch with his jab or left hook to get his range for a more powerful right hook, straight or uppercut. He has a nasty one punch uppercut KO of Tato Primera where he switched stances, & threw a left uppercut, while angling off the cage that knocked Primera out cold. He has a heavy overhand right. Muradov will also mix in lead elbows and up elbows. Muradov can sometimes hold his hands low & jut his chin out a bit. We saw that in his last match where he was hit with some huge punches in round 3. Muradov also showed some poor fight IQ, continuing to brawl & give Di Chirico chances to finish in round 3 when he was tired & rocked. Muradov also has a pretty dynamic kicking game. He throws nasty front kicks up the middle to the body and head. He will throw round kicks to the body & head, along with switch & question mark kicks. He throws very nice jumping round house kicks or front kicks to the body & head. Muradov can switch stances & throw the kicks fluidly with both legs from both stances. Muradov will mix in spinning kicks also when he gets his opponent in survival mode. Muradov has really nice flying knees, that he will throw when he backs opponents to the cage. He has finished fights with flying knees. Muradov is a dynamic, athletic striker with knockout power. On the feet, I see him having a sizeable advantage. I do feel he is hittable, but it hasn’t been exploited yet & I don’t know think Smith is the guy to do it. Muradov has 15 KO/TKO’s. He has finished 8 of his last 10 fights by knockout. Muradov has been finished one time in his career by TKO due to doctor’s stoppage. Makhmud Muradov has a solid grappling game. He has fast double leg shots and finishes well. He can explode into big slams or turn the corner. Muradov looks heavy in top position, and when he can posture will rain down heavy elbows & punches. He doesn’t look super comfortable in top position at times. Alberto Uda was able to threaten him with his guard and make him stand up out of top position. He was able to drop Uda with an overhand right later in the fight. He followed up with brutal ground & pound that put Uda to sleep. He threw a disgusting, flying punch that landed clean & followed up with concussive elbows. In his last match, he took down Wendell Oliveira, almost took his back, but once again just let him back to his feet. In the second round he once again took him down. This time he took the wrestling ride position on the back & finished the fight. He is good at trapping the far wrist & raining down unanswered blows. Muradov can back himself up towards the cage at times. He also sometimes gets crazy with his jump kicks or flying knees & puts himself in position to be taken down. Muradov has had very good takedown defense in recent fights. In the clinch, he is extremely hard to takedown. He digs double underhooks of his own quickly & changes position. He will look for trips along with just disengaging depending on the situation. I haven’t seen someone take him down in any recent fights. Muradov is just dangerous to takedown also. He will counter with flying knees, uppercuts and could knock opponents out. It looked like Muradov had issues with submission defense early in his career. He was submitted three times out of his first four losses. Muradov hasn’t lost by submission since 2013. He isn’t a big submission threat with just three in his career. Muradov is constantly exploding & using huge movements & he did slow down in round three of his last fight.

 

Trevor Smith

Age: 38

Height: 6’3

Weight: 185

Reach: 75”

Gym: Ring Demon Jiu-Jitsu

From: Washington

UFC Record: 5-6

Fight Matrix: 57

Last Fought: 1 Year

Last Five: 2-3

Current Streak: L2

Betting Odds: +335

 

Trevor Smith will be getting his first fight of 2019. He has taken about a year off following his decision loss to Zak Cummings. Smith has dropped two consecutive decisions, but both of those decisions were very close. Smith has had two opponents pull out for this fight, and Muradov is his third opponent, but knowing Smith he doesn’t care. Trevor Smith may not be the most technical or athletic guy, but he is a dog, and pushes people win or lose. At 38 years old his best days are probably behind him, but he can still be a stiff test for up & comers. Trevor Smith’s striking is not very diverse. He comes forward, controls the center, but his footwork is slow & plodding. Smith likes to hide his chin behind his shoulder & hold his lead hand low, so he can use it to find his range. He will paw out with the lead hand until he can jump into a leaping left hook or overhand right. He will throw heavy, counter left hooks & come over the top with right hooks & overhands in the pocket. He has power in his hands & no problem trading. Smith will rarely ever throw in combination or throw straight. Almost all his shots are wide & he tends to use his punches a lot as entries into body locks. He will mix in some low leg kicks, but that’s about the extent of his arsenal on the feet. Smith does have excellent cardio & will continue to walk fighters down, take damage & stay solid. He wears on opponents as fights goes on & relies on them to slow down so he can take over. Smith’s foot speed is very slow & against a fast guy like Makhmud, I could see him really struggling to get inside especially early on. Smith will try to move his head & has improved his defense a bit but is still very hittable. Part of his game is predicated on being able to absorb punishment to get it where he wants it. He ducks his head a lot when he throws along with just being slow. Smith has been KO/TKO’d four times in his career. Smith isn’t a big threat to knock someone out. He has one career KO which happened in his first professional fight.

Trevor Smith is a former All-American wrestler out of Iowa State. He is a very big, physical guy for 185 lbs. Smith thrives in the trenches, grappling in the clinch against the cage or when he’s in top position. Making it dirty is his world. Smith will get the single collar clinch & throw nice uppercuts & short hooks in dirty boxing range. Trevor Smith doesn’t shoot takedowns at range really. He will use his punches to back opponents to the fence where he gets in on the legs or a tight waist, or he gets the takedowns from the clinch. When he can get his hands connected, he is very strong & can bully a lot of lesser grapplers around. In top position, Smith is very strong also. He will get half guard where he has strong control & land ground & pound to the body and head. He will make opponents give their backs & then flatten them out & finish the fight. Smith is dangerous with submissions also. Trevor Smith is very hard to take & hold down himself. He has a nasty guillotine he will use to counter takedown attempts. He has 5 guillotine finishes in his career. He did pull guard on a guillotine vs Zak Cummings that put him on his back. Smith will use switches & or dig strong underhooks to reverse position. Even in the scrambles Smith is a solid fighter. He will get in on single legs from bottom & reverse position. He was dropped by Zak Cummings in his last fight but was able to reverse & control on top. He was also able to shuck Cummings off his back at a later point in that round & take top position again. Smith won’t stop in grappling scenarios & tends to out will guys. Smith has 9 submission victories but none since 2012. His last 6 fights have all gone to decision.

 

Muradov is going to have a massive edge on the feet in this fight and the only way Smith is going to win is if he can be successful with his wrestling. Muradov has shown great takedown defense though and at 38 years old I don’t think he is going to have what it takes to get Muradov to the ground enough to win a decision here. I think Muradov knocks him out in the 2nd or 3rd round.

On DraftKings, it is going to be Muradov or pass for me. I think he makes for a better cash game play as the biggest favorite on the card, but I am not sure how high his ceiling is. He is going to need a KO to score highly here and if he doesn’t get that in round 1 then he might be off the optimal lineup. I will get some exposure to him this week, but he won’t be a priority in GPPs and I don’t even think he is a lock in cash games. Smith is going to be a fade for me but if he does win this fight, he will pay off his salary because he will be looking to grapple and if he gets his hand raised it probably means he did a lot of grappling in at least two rounds. I wouldn’t talk you off playing him, but I don’t see him making my pool.

Winner –  Makhmud Muradov via 2nd round (T)KO

 

Virna Jandiroba $9,100 vs Mallory Martin $7,100

Virna Jandiroba

Age: 31

Height: 5’2

Weight: 115

Reach: 64”

Gym: Academia Fight House

From: Brazil

UFC Record: 0-1

Fight Matrix: 24

Last Fought: 8 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: -265

 

Virna Jandiroba suffered her first loss in her UFC debut, at the hands of Carla Esparza. Prior to that fight Jandiroba was 14-0. Both these girls are very similar. Brazilian, Former Invicta champions, and elite Jiu-Jitsu competitors. Jandiroba isn’t the greatest striker. She is slow & a bit stiff with her technique. She will throw a jab, left hook combination out there. She will throw a one-two or jab, overhand right. She throws a lot of round kicks to the body. When she throws shots, she leaves herself very open to counters. She doesn’t bring her hands back to her face fast enough, and fighters that can see her slower shots coming can counter her.  She doesn’t move her head & her chin is high. If she is forced to strike, she looks uncomfortable & will shoot some bad takedowns. She has never been finished & has no KO/TKO’s herself.

Jandiroba has no secret of where she wants the fight. She wants to put opponents on their backs. She is a strong wrestler. She has nice timing on double legs. On top, she is excellent. She has tremendous guard passing ability & a solid game. She likes to move to half guard where she is heavy & has nice, short elbows. She will look for arm triangles from half guard. Jandiroba will attack with a guillotine, crucifix position & mount take from there. She will fake like she is going to go for a guillotine & move right into mount. She has a high mount with amazing control & will look for armbars & triangles. She will take the back & has nice rear naked chokes. She looks more for submissions over ground & pound, but she will soften opponents up with big hammerfists & elbows. She is extremely heavy on top & has a very pressure passing methodical top game. She will instantly become one of the best Jiu-Jitsu players in the UFC woman’s divisions. It’s an interesting clash because Jandiroba favors more position over submission & off her back when she fought Carla Esparza she didn’t seem as strong. Esparza was able to take her down quite a few times. She had good double legs she landed on Jandiroba along with catching her kicks & bringing her down. Jandiroba did counter a takedown attempt with a guillotine rolling to top position in the process. Jandiroba did get a nice half guard sweep.  Jandiroba has 11 submissions.

 

Mallory Martin

Age: 25

Height: 5’4

Weight: 115

Reach: 64”

Gym: AKA

From: Colorado

UFC Record: 0-0

Fight Matrix: 33

Last Fought: 1 Month

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W5

Betting Odds: +225

 

Mallory Martin is stepping in here on short notice replacing Livia Souza. Martin was on the DWCS earlier this year picking up a victory and followed that up with another victory last month. Martin is a tough wrestler with improving striking skills. Martin is mainly a wrestler, boxer with extreme toughness. She will constantly walk opponents down, keep heavy pressure on them, and close the distance with straight punch combinations to the body and head. When she gets inside she will spam hook combinations & is willing to go to war. Her striking reminds me of Aspen Ladd’s and really her overall style as well. She is a terminator on the feet, but with limited offensive skill set & bad defensive skills. She is very hittable entering range & doesn’t move her head at all. She was pinged up pretty badly on her DWCS fight. Martin has two KO/TKO’s but mostly on the ground. She has never been finished.

Mallory Martin is a strong wrestler & has very nice body lock & double leg takedowns. She has excellent top pressure & heavy ground & pound. She has a viral video where she is battering a girl in top position while talking to her Khabib style. Martin tends to get cross body in half guard or side control & land big elbows & knees. She will work opponents over until they give their backs & submit them with RNCs. It will be interesting to see if she can control on top, and not get swept or submitted by Jandiroba. Martin is known for her pressure, volume & cardio. Coming in on short notice we have to see if she can still put that pressure on. Martin has one submission. If Martin gets takedowns, she has to be very heavy on top & focus on top control. She can’t get swept & allow Jandiroba to work her game in top position.

 

Martin is making her UFC debut here on short notice. If she had a full camp, then I think the +230 would be a decent line for her. I think she can win this fight on the feet and she has some heavy ground and pound as well. I think Jandiroba is going to have the edge on the ground though and I see her putting Martin on her back early and looking for subs. I would still say this is a dog or pass fight on the betting line, but I am going to take Jandiroba.

I don’t have much interest in this fight at all on DraftKings. I think you could make a case for either lady, but I am picking Jandiroba to get the win and I would just rather target other favorites near her price range. At $9.1k she is going to be priced out of most/all my lineups because I don’t see 100+ point upside from her. I think Martin is an OK punt, but I don’t think she gets the win and I am not even sure she has much of a floor. FGTD is -240 so Vegas thinks she will get 3 rounds of work and if you want to use her as a cash punt I think that is fine. Not sure how much upside she has in GPPs though.

Winner – Virna Jandiroba via 2nd round Submission

 

Joe Solecki $9,300 vs Matt Wiman $6,900

Joe Solecki

Age: 26

Height: 5’9

Weight: 155

Reach: 70.5”

Gym: Port City Sports

From: NC

UFC Record: 0-0

Fight Matrix: 312

Last Fought: 5 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W3

Betting Odds: -320

 

Joe Solecki will be making his UFC debut after an excellent performance on the DWCS. Solecki buzz sawed through James Wallace with relative ease. Solecki is one of the best Jiu-Jitsu competitors in the United States. It’s hard to find many of his MMA fights online. I couldn’t find either of his MMA losses. He is still very young in his career, 7 of his 8 wins have been in round one. In his three fights that have gone past round one he is 1-2. On the feet, it’s hard to say how truly good he is. On the DWCS his striking looked decent. He looked pretty fluid with his movement, was light on his feet and moved his head. He was throwing some hard, low kicks. He has a very nice left hook. Solecki uses a low stance & a lot of fakes to come up into hook combinations & then back down to the legs. In the fights I’ve seen, he’s been able to safely use his striking to eventually do what he wanted, which was get it to the ground. He does hold his chin a bit high & has been knocked out in the past. Overall, I think he’s a pretty plus athlete & his striking doesn’t look low level by any means. Solecki is not a big threat to get the knockout, with only one career TKO.

Joseph Solecki is an elite Jiu-Jitsu competitor. When he gets opponents to the mat you see his clear advantage & the fight usually ends shortly after. Solecki will get nice double legs that put him right into side control. He was able to catch a kick & get a takedown in his last match. When he gets the fight to the floor, he has very heavy top pressure & great control. He will try to trap wrists and land short punches & eventually move to the mount or back. He will search for arm triangles, but back control & rear naked chokes are really his thing. He is excellent at finding ways to get his hooks in & controlling the back position in the scrambles. He will soften opponents up before locking in the chokes & finishing the fight. Solecki will set up guillotines & triangles from the back, allow opponents to turn in & submit them from bottom. He got a nasty guillotine in his last match. Solecki is dangerous off his back with triangles, armbars & guillotines. Solecki has 6 submissions in 8 wins. He has one of the best ground games in the division immediately. Solecki hasn’t faced a very high level of competition, but I’m not sure how much of a step-up Matt Wiman is.

 

Matt Wiman

Age: 36

Height: 5’10

Weight: 155

Reach: 67”

Gym: Tulsa Top Team

From: Oregon

UFC Record: 10-5

Fight Matrix: 519

Last Fought: 6 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: +260

 

Matt Wiman had a rough reentry into the UFC in his last contest. He made the return to the octagon after nearly 5 years away from the sport. He was completely butchered by Luis Pena, and ultimately finished in round 3. He is returning 6 months later, so maybe he will look better after knocking some rust off. Matt Wiman’s striking did not look good in his return bout. He was throwing a lot of low kicks especially early, but they didn’t seem to have much sting on them. He was reaching a lot & lunging in with punches. He also had a bad cut that opened less than a minute into the fight. Wiman is extremely aggressive & a grinder. His footwork & movement I don’t really like. He is choppy, slow & really struggles to close the distance. He will wing shots on the feet & shows no fear. He has solid leg kicks. He will wing right & left hooks. He has a heavy overhand right and has big power in his punches. He will try to slip shots & return with left hook, right hook combinations. He will also throw lead elbows & superman punches. When he can get his wrestling going, that’s when his striking becomes better. He will fake level changes & come over the top with punches & elbows. He doesn’t throw any setups and will overextend & off balance himself with his winging shots. He plods forward with a high guard which leaves him susceptible to body shots as well. He was slow & struggled to close the distance 5 years ago, so now I am a bit worried about his striking. He did have a fairly good chin along with tenaciousness & heart, but he has taken some damage. He has been knocked out three times. He has 4 KO/TKO’s himself.

Matt Wiman is a grinder & tenacious wrestler. He is average in the clinch. He does have good physicality, and against weaker fighters he can land elbows & knees. He will look for trips & body lock takedowns. His defense in the clinch is not the best. He leaves himself susceptible to elbows & knees. He was knocked out badly by clinch elbows against TJ Grant. He does have a good single leg takedown, but I wouldn’t say he has elite wrestling. He leaves his head in positions to be guillotined & opponents have been able to sprawl & deny takedowns on him. He doesn’t mind being on his back & is very active with submissions. He has nice guillotines, triangles & armbars. He will also attack with omaplatas to sweep to top position. When he does get takedowns, he is very good on top. He has heavy elbows, punches & can bloody opponents up. He will slow cook opponents, beat them up, and pressure pass to dominant positions. He isn’t a big submission threat from top position preferring G&P. Wiman has 5 career submissions. He has never been submitted.

 

Solecki is a hyped BJJ prospect making his debut against a Wiman at the end of his career. Wiman looked terrible in his most recent fight after a 5-year layoff and I think this is a setup win for Solecki. Solecki is a great grappler and I think he will dominate this fight on the ground. His striking looks good enough to hang with Wiman here, but he will probably just use his hands as a way to get on the inside and land takedowns.

Solecki is going to be a guy I want to get into lineups and I could even see him being close to a core play for me. I think he is going to look to land takedowns in this fight and I think he is in play for the finish. Vegas only has him at +185 ITD but I like his odds a bit more than that and I think he has 100+ upside here. I am going to be spreading my exposure to favorites around, but I can see Solecki being my top owned $9k fighter and I think he is fine in all formats. Wiman will be a fade for me but if you want to use him at super low ownership in GPPs I think that is fine, but I don’t see him having a ton of upside here, so it would just be an ownership play for me.

Winner – Joe Solecki via 1st round Submission

 

Matt Sayles $8,200 vs Bryce Mitchell $8,000

Matt Sayles

Age: 25

Height: 5’7

Weight: 145

Reach: 67.5”

Gym: Alliance MMA

From: California

UFC Record: 1-1

Fight Matrix: 177

Last Fought: 7 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: W1

Betting Odds: -120

 

Matt Sayles bounced back from his UFC debut loss with a third-round finish of Kyle Nelson. Sayles is a protege of Dominick Cruz and has some hype around him. Matt Sayles is an excellent striker. He is constantly coming forward, faking, feinting, and banging the body. Sayles wears on opponents with his constant forward pressure & body attack. Sayles was throwing some heavy low kicks in his last match as well. Sayles has nice long-range attacks with straight-right hands that are excellent. He will double & triple up on it to get into range & it’s very accurate and powerful. He has a nasty overhand right. Sayles will also use a lot of front & round kicks mostly to the body, but also occasionally to the head. Sayles likes to wear on opponents until they are willing to trade in the pocket with him. In the pocket, Sayles has elite head movement & will slip & rip really making opponents pay. He will get the jab going, use one-twos & really has excellent feints that freeze opponents. He will get the straight-right hand & front kicks to the body established & just torture opponents by feinting one technique & using the other. His defense is also excellent, so opponents get demoralized by missing him. Sayles is also very good at exiting by using his lead hand. He will back up while landing a left hook and reset. Sayles does hold his hands low & isn’t an elite athlete so sometimes opponents can close the distance and land on him or touch him in the pocket. Sayles is very durable though & overall doesn’t take much damage. He has great footwork & movement, to go with his defensive boxing skills. His work rate is high, but he keeps a deliberate pace & won’t slow down. When he sees opponents tiring, he will pour it on & try to get them out of there. Sayles has 6 KO/TKO’s in his 8 victories.  He has never been finished by strikes.

Matt Sayles is a solid grappler as well, but it is his weak point. Sayles won’t offensively wrestle much in fights. In this fight I don’t expect him to be offensive with his wrestling at all. Sayles’ takedown defense looked very good in his last match. He is very good at disengaging from the clinch and sprawling or using underhooks to deny takedown shots. Sayles is an excellent scrambler & doesn’t accept bottom position. He will create scrambles immediately after being taken down and is very hard to hold down. Sayles does give his back to stand up, and against George Hickman & Kyle Nelson they did take the back & lock in tight RNCs. Sayles is not a quick tapper & opponents have to put him out cold it seems. He was able to stay calm & work out of both situations. Sayles will also reverse takedowns & take top position where he has shown to be strong. He was able to dominate Kyle Nelson in top position in their fight. He took mount multiple times and eventually finished via arm triangle. Sayles needs to sure up some things on the ground as far as giving up the back or the neck, but I think only an elite grappler could really exploit him. Sayles has never been submitted. This is a huge fight career trajectory wise for both fighters, so I expect Sayles to come in very motivated & ready to go.

 

Bryce Mitchell

Age: 25

Height: 5’9

Weight: 145

Reach: 70”

Gym: Barata MMA

From: Arkansas

UFC Record: 2-0

Fight Matrix: 84

Last Fought: 9 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W2

Betting Odds: +100

 

Bryce Mitchell is 2-0 so far to start his UFC tenure. He earned close decision victories in both fights and has proven to be extremely tough. Mitchell is a dog with zero quit. Mitchell likes to fight long & is pretty quick in & out. He has good fakes & feints. He will switch stances frequently and is fluid from both stances. He has a really fast straight-right hand & a nice right hook. He will slip a punch & throw hard left hooks. He has a solid jab. He has good hooks in combination in close range. He has very fast hand speed. He will throw a lot of lead, leg hook kicks to the body & head. He will throw front kicks & step-in knees to the body. He will throw jumping round house kicks. He will feint a level change into a left hook. He will throw right uppercut, left hook combinations. He has nice right hook to a body kick combination. He will throw the occasional round kick to the head. He will throw question mark kicks to the head. He is very quick & will slide out of the way of shots & return with counters such as check left hooks & right straights. When he slows down a bit he can be hit with some nice shots. Mitchell doesn’t have big power & really has most finishes via submission. He has never gotten a KO/TKO & has never been finished with strikes.

Mitchell is a solid grappler and has lot of submissions wins. He sets his shots up very well with strikes. In the clinch, he has very nice knees to the legs & body. He will dig strong double underhooks & has nice control against the cage. He has very good double leg takedowns against the cage. He will shoot nice single legs in the open mat. He will back opponents to the cage with a combination & finish with a double leg takedown. He has solid body lock trips. He is very good on top. He likes to use heavy pressure to pass & is always looking to take the back. He has very slick back takes & is funky. He will get a high guard, lock his legs & attack the body with shots. He will slowly bring up his legs until he can attack with a triangle armbar. He has good rear naked chokes as well. He can be shucked off the back into his guard, but he will quickly attack with submissions. He has a very high guard & will attack with triangles & armbars. He has very good deep half guard sweeps. He will attack with kimuras from half guard to create scrambles. He is good in scrambles & is very hard to hold down. He has solid get-ups. Brad Katona was able to figure out the timing of Mitchell’s blitz entries & time a couple takedowns. He has 8 career submissions, all either by rear naked choke, triangle, or armbar. He has been submitted one time on TUF by Brad Katona. He will give his back when he tries to stand up & Katona was able to get a rear naked choke. Mitchell does seem to slow down a bit, but he doesn’t have bad cardio.

 

This is going to be a striker vs grappler matchup. Sayles will have the better striking and he throws with high volume. I don’t see Mitchell winning this fight on the feet but if he can get takedowns then he could win with a submission or grappling heavy game plan. I have gone back and forth on this one but since Mitchell is the underdog, I will side with him to get a submission in this fight. No bet on this one though because he is at a big disadvantage on the feet.

I think both sides of this fight are in play on DK because they are the midrange fight and we don’t even need 100+ points from them in a win. I just don’t see me clicking on these guys because I don’t feel confident in either guy and I am not even sure they would get 10x+ in a win here. I think Sayles is the guy with the higher ceiling but since I am picking Mitchell I would say he is my preferred play since we need to get underdogs in our lineups and he fits in my mid-range builds.  I don’t see me having more than 1-2 LUs with this fight but if you have a stronger lean on either side I think you can play that guy and fade the other.

Winner – Bryce Mitchell via 3rd round Submission

 

Billy Quarantillo $9,200 vs Jacob Kilburn $7,000

Billy Quarantillo

Age: 30

Height: 5’10

Weight: 145

Reach: 70”

Gym: Longo & Weidman MMA

From: Florida

UFC Record: 0-0

Fight Matrix: 76

Last Fought: 5 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W5

Betting Odds: -320

 

Billy Quarantillo came through as a big underdog on the DWCS. He knocked Kamuela Kirk out in round 3 and has won five contests overall. Billy Quarantillo is a workman. He isn’t the most skilled fighter, but he is super durable & throws hard. Quarantillo has a kind of an awkward striking style. He is constantly pressuring forward and keeping the volume high. He will use nice fakes & feints and mixes the target up well. Quarantillo will throw a nice jab, and occasional straight punches, but mostly big, looping hooks. Quarantillo will throw wide left & right hooks. He will create a lot of distance with his punches and goes to the body with these hooks also. Quarantillo will tighten the hooks up in close range and throws solid combinations while mixing in uppercuts. Quarantillo will throw nasty knees to the body & head at the end of combinations. He doesn’t let opponents breathe in any facet of the game. In the clinch, he will be throwing knees, dirty boxing, and really poured it on his last opponent on the Contender series. Quarantillo will throw some occasional low kicks, front kicks to the body, but kicks aren’t a big part of his game. Quarantillo will throw a lot of naked, low kicks that get him countered. He holds his hands very low & walks into bombs in a lot of fights. He ducks his head a lot by throwing wide, along with getting countered with tighter shots. He also just isn’t the fastest guy overall. He is a zombie, wears the damage & continues to come forward. Quarantillo is willing to take damage to give damage in a lot of fights and breaks a lot of guys that way. He has been knocked out with a head kick in the past. Quarantillo has won four consecutive fights via KO/TKO and has six overall.

Billy Quarantillo will look to mix it up & wrestle. He will use combinations to create entries into takedowns, usually double legs. He doesn’t have the greatest takedowns though. Quarantillo is aggressive in top position with ground & pound and advancing position. He likes to take the back & get rear naked chokes. Quarantillo’s takedown defense is not good. He can off balance himself with his punches & squares his hips as he pressures sometimes. Off his back, Quarantillo has a dangerous guard. He will attack with armbars & triangles immediately. He will throw hard elbows while having the triangle locked up. Quarantillo will also roll for leg locks to sweep. He can get dominated by superior grapplers on the mat. When opponents pass his guard, he struggles a bit. He will give up the mount & the back. Kamuela Kirk was able to take his back, and Saul Rogers dominated him with grappling on the ultimate fighter. Quarantillo has four submissions & has never been submitted. His cardio is probably his biggest asset, and he will be ready to go here. He has been training at Serra-Longo’s and is riding a big wave of momentum.

 

Jacob Kilburn

Age: 24

Height: 5’9

Weight: 145

Reach: 68”

Gym: Harris Holt Combat Sports

From: Tennessee

UFC Record: 0-0

Fight Matrix: 209

Last Fought: 2 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W2

Betting Odds: +260

 

Jacob Kilburn is stepping in here on about two weeks’ notice. Kilburn is making his UFC debut, but is a DWCS veteran. He lost on the show to Bobby Moffett but will be hoping for a different result here. Kilburn is a very aggressive, dangerous striker. Kilburn has a snappy jab, a good one-two & sharp, straight punches. He has a nasty left hook, putting his last opponent to sleep with one left hook. Kilburn will put combinations together in the pocket, and his punches are very tight. He will mix spinning strikes into his pocket attack that are dangerous if they land. Kilburn has excellent kicks. He has nasty front & round kicks to the body and head, sneaking head kicks in at the end of combinations. He will throw one-twos or left hooks to spinning kicks to the body or head. Kilburn on the feet is a dangerous striker offensively & a dog also. He can take punishment & enjoys being in wars. He will talk to opponents & try to goad them into wars. Kilburn has never been finished by strikes. He has four KO/TKO’s.

Jacob Kilburn looks to have very questionable grappling skills. His open striking style gives opponents a lot of chances to time takedowns & he isn’t the strongest guy overall. Opponents who can get their hands connected or in on a body lock can usually dominate him. When Kilburn faced Bobby Moffett on the contender series, he was taken down very easily & dominated on the mat. He has okay, defensive Jiu-Jitsu but doesn’t attack or try to get-up. He will just try to stall out until the ref stands him up or the round ends. He definitely needs to improve his grappling if he wants to stay in the UFC. Kilburn has two submissions & has been submitted in both of his losses. Kilburn has great cardio & can push a pace.

 

Kilburn is taking this fight on late notice and both guys are making their UFC debuts here. I see Billy being the better fighter everywhere here, but Kilburn is dangerous with his striking. I think Kilburn could get a KO here but if Billy can avoid that he should get the win and he should have a big edge on the ground.

I have a bit of interest in both sides of this fight, but it won’t be one that makes many lineups. I think Kilburn is about as low as I am wanting to punt in GPPs because I do think he has 100+ point upside with a 1st round KO. If that happens, then he would be a lock at his price tag. I don’t think that is likely though, so I don’t want many lineups with him, but I think he makes my player pool. Quarantillo has a +110 ITD line which makes him in play for me as well. With Kilburn taking this fight on short notice I think Quarantillo can wear him down and get a finish. I just don’t know that it comes in the 1st or 2nd round which is probably what we would need at his $9.2k salary. I think he is in play in all formats, but I don’t see me playing him in cash and I doubt he makes more than 1-2 of my ~15 lineups.

Winner – Billy Quarantillo via 2nd round Submission

 

Tim Means $9,000 vs Thiago Alves $7,200

Tim Means

Age: 35

Height: 6’2

Weight: 170

Reach: 75”

Gym: Fit NHB

From: New Mexico

UFC Record: 8-6-1

Fight Matrix: 77

Last Fought: 9 Months

Last Five: 2-3

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: -265

 

Tim Means is set to make his return for the first time after a KO. Tim Means had gone almost 40 fights before Niko Price finally finished him with strikes. Means not only got knocked out, but also broke his ankle due to the way he landed. Means has lost three out of four fights & at 35 may be on his last legs. Tim was dominating the fight with Nike Price previous to getting knocked out, and we all know the type of guy Price is. Means is getting another veteran in Thiago Alves & has a good chance to bounce back here. Tim Means is a very sharp striker. He has a long reach but is also nasty in close range. Means has nice one-twos and front kicks to the body. He will throw one-twos & right straights to the body as well. He throws hard low & oblique kicks to the legs. Means has a very accurate lead & counter left hook. He has a sharp, counter right hook as well. He throws straight-right, left uppercut combinations. He has a nice step-in knee. He has good head movement and slips & rips very effectively. He will throw uppercut, overhand left combinations. He has nice high kicks. He keeps a high volume of punches out there, doubling and tripling up on jabs. Means does a good job of changing the speed of his punches, peppering fighters and mixing in faster, more powerful punches. He wears fighters out with pressure. Tim Means does like to stick in the pocket & fight in a danger zone. He is very comfortable slipping & ripping, using elbows, knees & short-range shots and winning the inside game. In his last match, that cost him as he got caught & knocked out in a fight he was dominating. He has only been finished twice by strikes and has notoriously had a great chin. Means has 19 KO/TKO’s.

Tim Means is nasty in the dirty boxing range, he has slicing elbows, short hooks and uppercuts. He throws nice knees to the body. He does a great job of using underhooks to defend takedowns & put fighters on their backs. He will also attack with guillotines. He did that against Belal Muhammad & almost rolled into mount but was stopped by the cage. He has good double leg & body lock takedowns. On top, he does a great job of posturing & throwing hard elbows & punches. He was able to takedown Ricky Rainey early & landed some brutal G&P for the finish. He tends to shoot takedowns when he gets hurt & can be submitted that way. He has good arm triangles but doesn’t look for submissions very much. In this fight, I do think mixing it up could be a smart game plan. Means has 4 career submissions. He has been submitted 4 times.

 

Thiago Alves

Age: 36

Height: 5’9

Weight: 170

Reach: 70”

Gym: American Top Team

From: Brazil

UFC Record: 15-11

Fight Matrix: 76

Last Fought: 7 Months

Last Five: 2-3

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: +225

 

Thiago Alves will be stepping into the UFC octagon for the 27th time December 7th. He has been in the UFC since 2005 and is one of last Mohicans of that era. He is a former title challenger & has done a lot in the sport. At 36 years old & a loser of 3 out of his last 4 fights, he definitely has his back against the wall here. The one-win vs Max Griffin in that run is a very disputed decision that was a robbery, in my opinion. He hasn’t been looking great lately & has to show that he still has it. He is a striker who has made his career off hard leg kicks & big power in his hands. He has a nice jab & strong inside & outside leg kicks. He will throw an outside leg kick to a jab, or a double jab to a leg kick. When he finds his range & gets comfortable in the pocket, he will really start to let his hands go. He does a good job of just touching opponents with the jab, waiting for the counter & throwing a fade-away left hook. He is very accurate with it & good at slipping the return shot & landing it. He has a nice left hook, straight-right hand combination. He will throw nice body kicks. He will throw occasional head kicks. He has good lateral movement & head movement at range, and when he is countering he has good defense. He will get wild & try to change the tide of the fight when he’s getting finessed from the outside, and wain in with straight punch combinations. He still has the heart to fight & win, but that’s where he becomes hittable. He struggles when opponents pressure him against the fence & can shell up. He is powerful & has 12 KO/TKO’s, but only has one in the last 11 years. He has shown a strong chin over his career & only has been finished by strikes 3 times.

Alves is a good clinch fighter, but not much of a wrestler. He has good control & head positioning when he has opponents against the cage. He does a great job of landing elbows to the head & knees to the body. He has good body lock takedowns. On top, he isn’t super dangerous, but if he can posture he has powerful ground & pound. He isn’t active with takedown attempts, but he has landed almost 70% of the takedowns he’s tried in his UFC career. He has good takedown defense, heavy hips and a good sprawl. He was taken down multiple times in his last match vs Max Griffin. He isn’t a big submission threat with only 2 in his career. He has been submitted 4 times in his career. Alves’ cardio is a bit questionable & he got out volumed & out hustled in his last match.

 

I like Means here. I think he is going to be the better fighter everywhere here, but I expect him to use his 5-inch reach advantage and his high volume to pick apart Alves and get a late stoppage. I think the 1st round could be close but the longer this fight goes the more it will favor Means and he could even end this fight with a cut stoppage with all the elbows he throws.

On DraftKings, Means is the only guy I think makes my player pool from this fight. I think this is a good matchup for him at this point in his career and he puts up a high enough pace where he can wear down Alves and finish him late and still hit 100 DK points. I don’t see anybody on this card having 120+ upside so I am just looking to get fighters who can hit that 100-point mark and I think Means is one of them. I won’t have a ton of him, but I do want to get him in my player pool. I don’t think Alves will make the cut because I don’t see him getting a KO and without a KO he doesn’t have much upside and I don’t like his chances at winning a decision.

Winner – Tim Means via 2nd round (T)KO

 

Rob Font $8,500 vs Ricky Simon $7,700

Rob Font

Age: 32

Height: 5’8

Weight: 135

Reach: 71.5”

Gym: Lauzon MMA

From: Massachusetts

UFC Record: 6-3

Fight Matrix: 17

Last Fought: 1 Year

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: W1

Betting Odds: -140

 

Rob Font is finally getting his first start of 2019, after two previous matchups have fallen out. Font is coming off the dominant win over Sergio Pettis & is one of the more dangerous fighters in the division. Font has big power, and I’m sure he will be looking to test that chin after Simon just got knocked out. Rob Font is a beast and very technical striker himself. He has a great jab and will double & triple up on it. He does a good job of skipping in with a jab, straight-right hand, and his straight-right is accurate and powerful. He has a nice check left hook, right uppercut combination. He has good footwork and does a great job of cutting off the cage & keeping opponents on the back foot. He has nice leg kicks, and front & round kicks to the head & body. He has nasty knee with great timing on them to counter takedown attempts. He throws a lot of volume and has a good style to win decisions. He can sometimes get too confident, bring his chin high & become flat footed, leaving him susceptible to counters. Font has struggled with pressure fighters like John Lineker & Pedro Munhoz in the past. Font has 7 KO/TKO’s & has never been finished by strikes.

Rob Font is an improved grappler and tends to try to get opponents down especially in round 1. He has good double leg takedowns and will use a single to push his opponents to the cage where he has nasty knees and elbows in close. He has good body lock takedowns, and solid single legs. On top, he has strong ground & pound and is always looking to snatch up that neck. He has a very nice guillotine. His takedown defense is questionable. He will attack with his guard, but if opponents can pass it he can be controlled & held down. Font hasn’t fought many wrestlers & only has 30% takedown defense. Font does have four submissions. In the past he has panic wrestled when hurt & been submitted. That was his lone submission loss at the hands of Pedro Munhoz.

 

Ricky Simon

Age: 27

Height: 5’6

Weight: 135

Reach: 70”

Gym: Team Quest

From: Washington

UFC Record: 3-1

Fight Matrix: 24

Last Fought: 5 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: +120

 

Ricky Simon really needs to bounce back here. He was a massive favorite over the returning Uriah Faber but was caught with an overhand & put to sleep. Ricky Simon has a solid jab, and a good straight-right hand. He has a hard-left hook and will throw a left hook, straight-right hand combination. He will attack the body with big left hooks & has nice rear knees to the body. He will close distance with a left hook, left uppercut, left straight combination, and uses his lead hand a lot. He has decent head movement. After he throws his first shot, he will land his jab or a straight, move his head off center line, and then will dig to the body. He will throw nice spinning backfists. He has decent kicks. He will throw nice inside/outside leg kicks. He has good body kicks and will throw the occasional head kick. When he backs fighters up near the cage, he will get creative with his striking, throwing things such as spinning back elbows & flying knees. He will throw lead elbows. He is hittable at times because he prefers to stay in the pocket and use head movement & return, instead of using footwork to evade. In his two losses he was rocked badly with a shot prior to being submitted & TKO’d. He has gotten rocked in his last three fights, but he is extremely well conditioned with tremendous recoverability. He doesn’t have huge knockout power, but he is still dangerous with 5 KO/TKO’s in 14 wins.

Simon is a tremendous wrestler and was a great high school wrestler. He could have gone to college for wrestling, but he elected to do MMA instead. He is still very wrestling centric in his style. He does a great job of closing the distance, getting double underhooks & immediately dumping opponents. He has a nasty double leg & he will elevate fighters and move directly into side control. The way he ducks under for his takedowns is great & he disguises them very well with strikes. He will shoot with the head on the outside on the double leg, but he is diligent to get his head out and not get caught in a guillotine. He can wrestle all day & has an endless gas tank. He does a great job of jumping on the back after he gets double legs when opponents stand up.  He does a good job of turking the legs when he gets opponents to the mat and tries to slide directly into mount or take the back. He has hard ground & pound, and he will throw for the finish if he sees opponents wilting. His top control isn’t elite, but he can wrestle all day, and continue to stay attached and make it a miserable night. His takedown defense is good & he is even harder to hold down. He was able to defend all the takedown attempts of Rani Yahya. He was taken down a few times by Merab Dvilashvili, but he is a great scrambler and hard to hold down. He does a great job of giving his back to stand up & then shucking his opponents off the back with explosion. He has top notch cardio & has only been submitted one time. He was dropped & hurt prior to the submission also and is very hard to catch on the ground. Simon isn’t a big submission threat with only two in his career.

 

Font is the better striker in this match and if he can keep it standing, he is going to get either a decision win or a knockout. Simon puts up a crazy pace with his wrestling though and on average he lands 6.66 takedowns per 15 minutes. Font doesn’t have great takedown defense, so I could see him getting taken down multiple times each round here and I think Simon is a live dog by winning at least two rounds with a wrestling-heavy game plan.

This is a fight I do like on DraftKings, but more so for Simon. I think he has the pace and wrestling ability to score 100 in a decision win here and at his price tag that would be on the optimal lineup. I don’t feel confident about him getting a win, but I think he gets over 10x if he gets his hand raised. I think he is in play in all formats and he will be a dog I get maybe 30% of for his upside potential. I think Font is going to need a finish to end up on the optimal this week, but it is in play and I think he is a harder hitter than Faber who just put Simon away in the 1st round. Font is in play for me as well, but I will be getting more of Simon in this fight and I might have him in my cash LU as well.

Winner – Ricky Simon via Unanimous Decision

 

Song Yadong $8,900 vs Cody Stamann $7,300

Yadong Song

Age: 22

Height: 5’6

Weight: 135

Reach: 67”

Gym: Enbo Gedou

From: China

UFC Record: 4-0

Fight Matrix: 26

Last Fought: 5 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W7

Betting Odds: -200

 

Yadong Song will be looking to continue his hot start & run his UFC win streak to 5. He has finished three of his four wins, and has people calling him a future champion. If he can defeat Cody Stamann expect him to get a top 10 name in his next match. Song is an incredible athlete & one of the most explosive, powerful fighters in the division. He has two finishes in his three UFC wins & one punch knockout power. Song likes to pressure forward & cut off the cage, but he’s very light on his feet. He has a long karate stance & is very fast in & out. His distance control is incredible, and he can slide in and out of range very well. He is excellent at cutting off the cage & making opponents fight while skirting the cage. He has a great jab. He will double jab his way into range. He will throw heavy low kicks. He will throw tight one-twos. He has a nasty straight & right hook. He has a good left hook, right straight combination. He will throw nice uppercut, left hooks also. His overhand right is nasty & he’s knocked opponents out with it. He will work the body with punches & mixes it up very well. He does a good job of slipping shots and returning with counters. He always has great balance on the feet and is smooth and fluid with very little wasted movement. He has very fast spinning back kicks to the body & head that he throws with almost zero telegraph. I think that the in & out movement of Song will cause Stamann issues. I expect Song to be the one controlling the center & if he can back Stamann up, land & exit, he will probably KO him. Song is a warrior, when he’s hit he wants to get it right back. He has good defense, and when he gets hit he returns immediately with combinations. Song has 5 KO/TKO’s but that’s a bit deceiving. He started fighting very young, but his power is much more prevalent now. He has 4 KO/TKO’s in his last 8 fights.

Song is a strong fighter for bantamweight, and you can really see it in grappling exchanges. In the clinch, he bullies fighters with knees, elbows and can throw opponents around. He landed a nasty elbow in his last match in the clinch that dropped and finished Arantes.  His takedown defense is super strong, he was easily able to reverse the double leg of Arantes and ended up on top where he landed brutal ground & pound. He does a great job of using heavy pressure in top position and then posturing and throwing hard punches to the body and punches and elbows to the head. He dominated Arantes on the ground with G&P in his guard ultimately finishing him and was never threatened. Arantes is known for having a good guard and submission game, and Song completely nullified it. Song also has good back takes and great control. He has a good arm triangle submission, and you can see his grappling really improving. He had some great timing on double legs against Vince Morales and took him down against the cage also. He isn’t someone who will push for takedowns & he just takes them if he sees them easily available. Song isn’t a big submission threat with just three in his career. Song has never been submitted.

 

Cody Stamann

Age: 30

Height: 5’6

Weight: 135

Reach: 64.5”

Gym: Xtreme Couture

From: Michigan

UFC Record: 4-1

Fight Matrix: 16

Last Fought: 8 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W1

Betting Odds: +170

 

Cody Stamann has a big test in front of him with Yadong Song; but the UFC veteran is 4-1 in the company, and a tough out himself. Stamann has moved to Las Vegas for this fight & is training at the UFC PI & Xtreme Couture’s. Stamann is not a bad striker, but definitely will want to get this fight to the ground. Stamann has a decent jab & a strong, straight-right hand. He has a good, long lead left hook. He will throw oblique kicks to the legs & front kicks to the body. He has good front & sidekicks to the body. He will throw an inside leg kick, body jab, straight-right hand combination. He will throw a left hook to the body to a left hook to the head combination. He has good high kicks. He will throw straight-right hands to high kicks or jabs to high kicks. He does a good job investing to the body with punches which helps disguise his level changes. He does a good job of grabbing the Thai plum & landing knees to the head. He does a good job of slipping & returning with shots in the pocket & slipping & ducking under for takedowns. He is super explosive & sets his takedowns up well with his striking. He can hold his hands low & be hit with jabs and straight punches. He isn’t a big power striker but has 6 career KO/TKO’s. He has a good chin & isn’t afraid of being hit. He has never been finished via strikes.

Cody Stamann is an awesome wrestler. He is very explosive & sets his shots up with his strikes very well. He will throw a double jab into a double leg takedown. He does a great job of staying in the pocket, landing a couple shots then slipping, ducking under & getting a double leg. He is good on top and likes to get into side control, posture up & land G&P. He does a good job of staying connected when opponents try to stand up & immediately returning them. He likes to get into 3 quarters mount & land hard hammerfists & punches. He is smart with his positioning and doesn’t go into places where he can get bucked off very much. He will try to take the back & flatten opponents out. He isn’t a big submission threat with just two in his career. He has been submitted one time.

 

I have been really high on both of these guys and this might be my favorite fight on the card. Stamann puts up a high pace and is a great wrestler that attempts almost 7 takedowns per 15 minutes and landing at 51% clip. Yadong is going to be the much better, more dangerous striker here and he has looked solid on the ground himself in the wrestling department. I think Yadong is the real deal though and I expect him to improve every time out at his age. I am going to take Yadong to win a decision here, but I think he could be the first to knock Stamann out.

This is going to be a fight that is in most of my lineups. Probably not an all-in fight but maybe 80% or so of my lineups. Yadong is going to be my preferred play and I think he could get a KO in any round. I am not confident he pays off his $8.9k salary in a decision win though so that’s why I don’t want to go all-in. If Stamann wins, I am pretty confident he would pay off his salary even if it is a decision. He puts up a high pace and I would think he gets multiple takedowns if he is able to beat Yadong here. If I was making 10 lineups, I would think Yadong makes maybe 5-6 and Stamann 2-3. I think Yadong is a solid cash play as well because I don’t see him getting finished here and I do like him to get his hand raised.

Winner – Song Yadong via Unanimous Decision

 

Aspen Ladd $8,700 vs Yana Kunitskaya $7,500

Aspen Ladd

Age: 24

Height: 5’6

Weight: 135

Reach: 66”

Gym: MMA Gold Team

From: California

UFC Record: 3-1

Fight Matrix: 7

Last Fought: 4 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: -155

 

Aspen Ladd will be returning for the first time after a loss. She got knocked out very quickly by Germaine de Randamie. Aspen Ladd has a nice jab she will double & triple up on. She has a very nice left hook, straight-right hand combination. She will throw a straight-left to the body to a straight-right hand to the head. She has good combinations in close with solid head movement and will go to the body and head. She will throw a front kick to the body, and occasional leg kicks. She is always moving forward and never backs up. She has great cardio and just a confidence about her. In her last fight she was getting tagged trying to enter into range and took a lot of shots. She is a bit stiff & comes in on straight lines. She also doesn’t move her head. She did show a willingness to trade & eat shots no issues. She is very mentally strong, and training to be the best fighter in the division every day even when she doesn’t have a fight lined up. She is a finisher & has a mean streak about her. She has 5 KO/TKO’s. She was knocked out for the first time in her career in her last match.

Aspen Ladd is a strong grappler who likes to strike into the clinch, take opponents down and smash them from top position. She is very physically strong in the clinch with her double underhooks, but she can be turned and controlled against the cage. She needs to improve her clinch game against the cage, so she doesn’t lose fights by getting controlled. She lost the first round against Lina Lansberg because she was controlled against the cage. She had a great double leg in round two and once she got on top the fight was over. She does a great job of getting the side control and then pushing her knee through to the mount while staying very tight. She is very heavy on top and will posture up and unload with punches and elbows. In her match, she took the back of Tonya Evinger, flattened her out & finished her with ground & pound. When she gets an opponent in a vulnerable position, she will go for the finish immediately. She has good overall takedown defense & a heavy sprawl. She will use an underhook to try to off balance an opponent & take top position herself. In this fight it’s going to come down to her ability to get takedowns & control or finish on top. Ladd has one career submission, but all her TKO’s have come from G&P.

 

Yana Kunitskaya

Age: 30

Height: 5’8

Weight: 135

Reach: 68.5”

Gym: Xtreme Couture

From: Russia

UFC Record: 2-1

Fight Matrix: 9

Last Fought: 8 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: W2

Betting Odds: +135

 

Yana Kunitskaya is a big, athletic girl for the division. She has a quick jab & nice front kick to the body. She will jab to the body & has nice right hooks. She will throw lead left hooks. She will throw round kicks to the body. She will also throw nice spinning back kicks to the body & head as well as spinning backfists. When she throws her punches, she drops her hands & can get hit clean. She can get hit with straight punches & overhands. She seems very timid once she gets hit & was decimated by Cyborg. She does a lot of reaching for the clinch instead of setting up her entries with shots. If she does that often in this match, she is going to be made to pay for it. Kunitskaya has 7 KO/TKO’s overall. She has a fairly good chin & has just been finished one time by Cyborg.

Kunitskaya is a much better grappler than striker & very physically strong. She is very good in the clinch. She will land hard knees to the body & elbows. She has good control against the cage & will win rounds by landing short shots and having control against the cage. She does a good job of getting a far side underhook & dumping her opponent right into side control. She will look to get to the crucifix position & looks for punches & elbows. She has good head & arm throws & body locks. She has a nice low single as well. She keeps heavy top pressure when in position. She does a good job of pressure passing to side control & jumping on the back when opponents try to stand up. She isn’t great at securing position on the back & usually her opponents are able to escape to the feet.  When she was put on her back by Tonya Evinger, she showed a very nice bottom game. She is very aggressive with her guard and will attack with not only elbows but submissions. She has a nasty armbar that she caught Tonya Evinger in in their first fight. She does a great job of when she goes for an armbar, she hooks her opponent’s leg and then if she cannot get the armbar, she will start to attack with a heel hook or sweep to top position. She is very calm on her back and doesn’t take much damage if she is in her guard. Being so aggressive does come with risks if she cannot get the submission or sweep fighters to stronger positions, such as Tonya Evinger being able to survive the submission attempts and then ultimately take the back and get a rear naked choke. Kunitskaya only has one career submission & has been submitted two times.

 

I think Ladd is the better overall striker and grappler here. I like her boxing more and I think she is more dangerous on the ground. Kunitskaya is better in the clinch and she is decent with takedowns and submissions herself, I just don’t see her being able to consistently get Ladd to the ground. I like Ladd here, but the worry is her being inactive at times whether that be against the cage or on her back, but I do think she is the better fighter and I think she gets a unanimous decision.

Ladd is going to be the play for me here and I think she is in play in all formats. I like her to get the win and I think she has a solid floor and ceiling. I could also see a ~75-point win from her and that wouldn’t win us $25k. She will be close to a core play for me making maybe 30-50% of my lineups this week and I like her in cash where we aren’t too worried about her ceiling. Yana will be a hedge only play for me this week. If I end up with 50% Ladd, then I probably throw Yana in a lineup just in case. I don’t see her having much upside, but she is in play for a 10x win if she can get her hand raised. I just don’t see her having a ton of success here, so I don’t think she makes more than 1 lineup for me.

Winner – Aspen Ladd via Unanimous Decision

 

Ben Rothwell $8,600 vs Stefan Struve $7,600

Ben Rothwell

Age: 38

Height: 6’4

Weight: 265

Reach: 80”

Gym: Rothwell MMA

From: Wisconsin

UFC Record: 6-6

Fight Matrix: 71

Last Fought: 5 Months

Last Five: 2-3

Current Streak: L3

Betting Odds: -140

 

Ben Rothwell is still in search of his first win since April of 2016. Since returning back from his USADA suspension, Big Ben is 0-2 & took a beating in his last match vs Andrei Arlovski. This will be Rothwell’s third fight of 2019, but he definitely needs a win here. Rothwell is very big, very durable & when he hits people they feel it. Rothwell has a very awkward style. He stands almost square in his stance & due to that is powerful from both sides. He will switch stances as well & his movement is very hard to get a beat on. He likes to keep his hands open & extended due to his reach. He is able to hand fight & get openings for his shots. He has a pretty nice jab. He will throw nice straight punches & powerful hooks. He closes the distances with straight punches nicely. He will land nasty right hooks to be body. He will throw the right hook to the body a couple times and then throw uppercuts to the head. He has very nice uppercuts. He likes to lean towards the right a lot, even as he walks forward, keeping his head totally off-center line. He throws everything into his shots & throws hammers. He will throw heavy low kicks & front kicks to the body. Rothwell has a tricky head kick & has a KO via head kick. Something that will benefit him in this fight is his forward pressure & volume. He will almost undoubtedly be the one going forward throwing more strikes. He has the ability to take ungodly punishment & come back to get the finish. He was getting beat up badly by Overeem before turning the tables with a big KO.

Rothwell is not a wrestler either, but I do think he’d be the more likely of the two to grapple. He will try to close the distance and get double underhooks. He will get the single collar clinch & throws nice uppercuts there. I haven’t seen him get in top position very much lately, but I imagine with his size & power that he’d be heavy on top and hit hard. He has very good takedown defense & a super dangerous Gogo choke. He is the only fighter to ever submit Josh Barnett, and it’s dangerous to shoot on Rothwell. Rothwell is very odd to fight. He is extremely durable & moves very awkwardly.

 

Stefan Struve

Age: 31

Height: 7’0

Weight: 263

Reach: 84.5”

Gym: Hard Knocks 365

From: Netherlands

UFC Record: 13-9

Fight Matrix: 29

Last Fought: 10 Months

Last Five: 2-3

Current Streak: W1

Betting Odds: +120

 

Stefan Struve’s recent retirement was very short lived. Struve retired after earning a submission victory over Marcos Rogerio De Lima in his last match. Struve has a decent jab & strong straight-right hand. He will throw check left hooks. He will throw a nice left hook, right uppercut combination, and will throw it 2 to 3 times in a row in the pocket. He has a nice, outside low kick. He will throw a lot of front knees, along with front & round kicks to the body & head. He will throw head kicks & does a good job of hiding it behind a jab. He will throw flying knees. He has looked awful in his last two fights and was largely dominated. He is super tall & not the fleetest of foot. He has always had issues with short, explosive fighters who throw overhands. He will back up to the fence when he gets hurt & cover up instead of moving. He has been KO/TKO’d many times & definitely has a questionable chin. He has been finished 7 times by KO/TKO. He is still dangerous & when he hurts opponents, he’s a finisher. He showed a small flash in his last match, where he hurt Tybura with a front kick up the middle and swarmed with punches. He has 8 career KO/TKO’s.

Struve is a good Jiu-Jitsu player and has a ton of submissions in his career. He is very good in the clinch & his height gives him a huge advantage. He has good body lock trip takedowns and is very good in top position. He is super heavy on top & his height makes it very difficult to move under him. He likes to land shots from half guard while looking for chokes. He has good darces & front chokes. He has good takedown defense in the clinch, but easily can get taken down with level changes. Tybura & Arlovski were able to take him down multiple times & rack up top control. He does have a good guard. He does a good job of trapping a wrist & trying to get triangles and armbars. He has gotten beat up in his guard by Overeem & didn’t attack with any submissions in his last two fights. He has 18 career submissions. He has been submitted 1 time in his career.

 

Both these guys are past their prime, so it is hard to know what we will get here. I think Struve is the more technical fighter and he could cause Rothwell issues with his reach. If this goes to a decision I think Struve is more likely to get the win. I think Rothwell is more dangerous though and Struve has been knocked out 7 times in his career. I think Rothwell can get a knockout at some point during this fight and I think Rothwell ITD would be my favorite bet here at +145.

On DraftKings, I won’t have much exposure to this fight as a whole but my preferred play is Rothwell. I think he is in play for a knockout in the 1st or 2nd round and that is his path to the nuts lineup. I do want some exposure to him for that reason, but he isn’t a guy I will be forcing into lineups. I even think he is fine for cash games because I don’t think he gets finished here so he has a decent floor for a HW. I am not against using Struve here because he is a live dog and he could get 10x or so in a win. I just don’t see me getting to him much and I prefer the fighters priced around him instead. I could also see him getting a ~50-point decision win here and even as an underdog that wouldn’t help us much in GPPs. He might be a guy who gets plugged into a lineup as a last spot because he fits, but I am fine with a full fade on him because I do think he gets some ownership from the field.

Winner – Ben Rothwell via 1st round (T)KO

 

Marina Rodriguez $8,400 vs Cynthia Calvillo $7,800

Marina Rodriguez

Age: 32

Height: 5’6

Weight: 115

Reach: 65”

Gym: Thai Brasil Floripa

From: Brazil

UFC Record: 2-0-1

Fight Matrix: 12

Last Fought: 3 Months

Last Five: 4-0-1

Current Streak: W2

Betting Odds: -130

 

Marina Rodriguez is an undefeated fighter looking to jump into title contention. She is fresh off destroying Tecia Torres over 3 rounds, and now is getting another big name in Cynthia Calvillo. If Rodriguez can get a finish or a dominant victory, she will likely get a top 5 opponent in her next match. Marina Rodriguez is an incredibly sharp striker. She is good at striking going forwards & backwards, playing the range game very well. Rodriguez has a nasty jab, and super straight punches. Her one-two is a piston. She will mix in long hooks also with both hands that make up a lot of distance. Rodriguez will blitz forward with a one-two or right hook, straight-left hand combination, followed by low kicks. She has excellent front kicks to the body & head along with oblique kicks to the legs. She will also throw sidekicks with her back leg. All her kicks tend to come with the back leg. When Rodriguez gets confident, she will start to close the distance with superman punches, elbows and spinning kicks. She has excellent elbows & knees in close range that can bust opponents open. Her Muay Thai clinch is excellent. Rodriguez doesn’t have the fastest feet and can do a lot of standing in front of opponents. Randa Markos had success with her striking by pressing forward & throwing combinations. Rodriguez doesn’t move her head much & if opponents can walk through her shots & counter she is there to be hit. Markos also established the takedown early, and had success feinting the takedown & coming over the top with hooks or overhand combinations. In her last match, I feel Torres gave her the exact fight she wanted. Torres was trying play the outside game, dart in & out, and Rodriguez was able to implement her game & just pick her off from distance. She had a sizeable height & reach advantage which she won’t have in this matchup.

Marina Rodriguez is an average grappler. Her clinch game is elite & she can really batter opponents with elbows & knees. She will get a great frame with her fore arm on the head to create distance & just go to town. She will force opponents to give up takedown attempts with the elbows, along with really breaking their posture effectively with the frame. Rodriguez showed good balance & excellent takedown defense against the cage in her last match. She also countered a double leg with a nasty guillotine which forced Torres to go to her back. Rodriguez wasn’t able to hold Torres down, but never gave up a takedown either. She dominated a very strong clinch fighter in the clinch proving she is one of the stronger athletes in the division. When she faced Randa Markos, Markos was able to take her down with the head & arm in the clinch more than once. In terms of being on the mat, Rodriguez has shown weaknesses. Randa Markos was able to dominate her in top position, mount her & really beat her up. Rodriguez wasn’t able to stop Markos from passing to dominant positions and couldn’t get close to standing up off bottom. She isn’t a fish out of water on the mat & can defend herself & survive, but against Cynthia Calvillo, maybe not. Jessica Aguilar was able to get her in a triangle & almost finished with an armbar when Rodriguez was inside her guard. Rodriguez needs to treat the ground like lava & don’t allow herself to be taken down or even be in top position.

 

Cynthia Calvillo

Age: 32

Height: 5’4

Weight: 115

Reach: 64”

Gym: Tiger Muay Thai

From: California

UFC Record: 5-1

Fight Matrix: 10

Last Fought: 9 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W2

Betting Odds: +110

 

Cynthia Calvillo is still trying to get back in the groove and be more active. Since her USADA suspension she has only been able to fight twice in two years. Calvillo was scheduled to face a legend of the division in Claudia Gadelha & is now getting a completely different matchup with Marina Rodriguez. It is a very risky fight for Calvillo to take, because Rodriguez is a beast, but not well known. Calvillo has been training in Thailand at Tiger Muay Thai for two months, so she did get a bit lucky in her replacement being a Muay Thai specialist. She has definitely been able to get high level looks as far as standup & should be ready for what Rodriguez has to offer. Calvillo has good movement and tries to work behind a jab and straight-right hand. She does a decent job of countering with her right hand and moving her head off center line. She has a nice check left hook in the pocket. She will throw occasional leg kicks, but she is not much of a kicker. She tends to get flat footed when she tries to throw combinations and will stand right in front of opponents and get hit. She was able to take the shots of a powerful girl in her last match & has fought multiple fighters who are now at 125. She is a tough girl and has a good chin. She has 2 TKO’s in her career, and never has been finished.

Calvillo is a great BJJ practitioner, and very dangerous on the ground. She is amazing in scrambles, and her flexibility makes her able to end up in dominant positions. She isn’t a great wrestler, or even a very active seeker of the takedown, but she definitely will need to be in this matchup. She did have a nice duck under off an Esparza overhand and was able to get a nice double leg takedown. She will try to get the single collar tie, and then shoot a takedown from there, but overall, she isn’t a great wrestler. On top, she is strong but if fighters are safe, she seems to not be extremely active. She likes to use small ground and pound, and make opponents make a move where she can scramble to dominant position. Her takedown defense is not great, but off her back is where she is most dangerous. She has very dexterous legs, and she’s able to use them to offset balance and create scrambles where she can take the back or lock in a choke. She has great back takes, showing that with a slick submission over Amanda Cooper. She also has nice triangles and armbars and works quickly on the mat for the submission. She has two rear naked chokes in her career. She has good cardio and can go hard for three rounds.

 

This is a close striker vs grappler fight. Rodriguez is going to have a big edge in the striking department and if she can stuff takedowns she will win this fight. Calvillo is going to look to grapple though and we have seen Rodriguez put on her back in previous fights. I could see Calvillo finding a submission here or winning rounds with takedowns and ground control. I think this is a 50/50 fight though, so I would say the value is on the underdog here. Just don’t think it is enough for me to bet at this point.

On DraftKings, Calvillo is my preferred play because she will be the one looking to grapple. I think it will be a lot easier for her to get 10x in a win with her fighting style than it will be for Rodriguez with her only getting sig strikes and a possible win bonus. I think I will probably have a full fade on Rodriguez here because I don’t see her having 100+ upside and she could spend a lot of time against the cage or on her back. Calvillo is in play in all formats for me because she does have a nice floor with this fight expected to go to decision at -195 and she also carries a decent ceiling with her grappling and submission potential.

Winner – Cynthia Calvillo via Split Decision

 

Alistair Overeem $8,300 vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik $7,900

Alistair Overeem

Age: 39

Height: 6’4

Weight: 245

Reach: 80”

Gym: Elevation Fight Team

From: Netherlands

UFC Record: 10-6

Fight Matrix: 7

Last Fought: 8 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: W2

Betting Odds: -120

 

Alistair Overeem will be looking to turn back another rising star & move back towards another title shot. Overeem has now won back to back fights after two in a row. He has joined elevation fight team, training with a beast in Curtis Blaydes, and has been using much more grappling. Overeem has finished his last two opponents with ground & pound in round one. Overeem is an amazing striker, and definitely will be the most skilled fighter Rozenstruik has ever faced. I expect Overeem to be defensive while standing. He will be looking to counter punch and throw a lot of fakes and feints trying to lure his opponents in and potshot him. He has a nasty straight-right hand and is still very quick and fluid with both his hands and his kicks. He has a nice counter left hook and can land it while angling off.  He has very nice leg kicks and will throw the occasional hard body kick. Overeem will also get creative and throw front kicks to the face or jumping kicks like he landed on Arlovski. Alistair has struggled with people with longer or similar reach to him because I think he feels uncomfortable they can hit him at the same distance he can hit them. He has UFC losses to Antonio Silva, Travis Browne, Ben Rothwell, Stipe Miocic, Francis Ngannou, and Curtis Blaydes. All those guys have as long of a reach or longer reach than Alistair.  Rozenstruik has a 78” reach so it is a worry he lands a haymaker over the top & puts Overeem on wobbly legs or finishes him. Overeem needs to be vigilant at all times & not brawl in this fight. Overeem is a knockout artist, but also has well documented chin problems. He has 21 KO/TKO’s but been finished himself 13 times himself with strikes. Overeem is aware his chin is gone, and he tends to be very careful in the octagon nowadays and he needs to do that here.

Alistair Overeem is an underrated grappler, and he has gotten more grappling centric later in his career. When fighters close the distance on him, he no longer brawls, he will clinch up and try to get double underhooks where he is nasty. He has devastating knees to the body and head and has finished multiple fighters with clinch knees. His takedown defense is very good and on top he is good. He showed good takedowns against the cage in his last match, as well as entries into the clinch. He has strong ground & pound and can control opponents and not let them up. The hammerfists he used to finish Sergey Pavlovich were scary. He has a very good guillotine. He isn’t great off his back, and while he is hard to submit, he has been finished by Stipe Miocic and Curtis Blaydes with G&P. Overeem slows a bit in round 3, but overall, he has good cardio for a HW.

 

Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Age: 31

Height: 6’4

Weight: 245

Reach: 78”

Gym: Team Bigi Boy

From: Suriname

UFC Record: 3-0

Fight Matrix: 30

Last Fought: 1 Month

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W9

Betting Odds: +100

 

Rozenstruik has entered the UFC with a bang going 3-0 in 2019 with two knockouts in under 30 seconds. Rozenstruik was able to take out a legend in Andrei Arlovski easily & is now ready to collect another scalp. Bigi Boy is jumping in on short notice here & has expressed interest in fighting Francis Ngannou if he is to win. Jairzinho has good stand up. He has heavy inside, outside leg kicks & a great jab. He has good power in his hands. He will throw a jab, right hook or a jab, overhand right combination. He has a powerful counter left hook. He has a nice uppercut, left hook. He is fleet of foot for a big man and can close distance quickly. He will throw occasional head kicks & flying knees. He will throw front kicks to the face also. Jairzinho likes to throw jab or straight-right hands to head kick combinations. He is very explosive in close range. Jairzinho can allow opponents to control the center, and back himself towards the cage. He will look to stand stationary & try to catch opponents with left hooks or uppercuts as they come inside. Jairzinho landed a left hook, right uppercut to a head kick combination that put Junior Albini out in his UFC debut. He followed that up dropping Allen Crowder with a jab & knocked out Arlovski with one punch. Jairzinho has 7 knockouts in 8 wins and has never been finished by strikes.

Rozenstruik’s grappling is questionable. His takedown defense is not good. He was taken down multiple times in round one by Junior Albini. Albini was able to land a single & body lock takedown. Albini was able to pass his guard into side control. He attacked with a kimura & even took the back. Jairzinho was able to turn in & take top position when Albini took his back. Against Sergey Kovalev, he was taken down in round 2 with a double leg & couldn’t get-up. Kovalev was able to land the takedown directly into side control. Kovalev was able to land some nice elbows & knees to the body. He did deny Kovalev from taking the mount, but he couldn’t stand up. He was controlled the entirety of the round. In round 3 though, he was able to deny a takedown attempt, and land a body lock of his own. Jairzinho looked heavy in top position & postured and rained down some big elbows. Jairzinho Rozenstruik allows fighters to clinch up with him against the cage far too easily. He puts himself there by himself & Junior Albini was able to put him against the cage with double underhooks several times. He can be too worried about takedown defense after he’s taken down and not let his hands go. Jairzinho isn’t a threat on the mat offensively. He has no submissions & I feel Overeem could even submit him from inside his guard. He needs to avoid going to the mat. Rozenstruik does fight at a smart pace & should not gas.

 

I am confident this fight doesn’t go to decision, but I am not confident who will get the win. Rozenstruik has heavy power and his last two knockouts only took a combined 38 seconds and Overeem has been knocked out 13 times in his professional career. If Rozenstruik lands hard at any point, he is probably going to knock Overeem out. However, we have seen Rozenstruik be put on his back and that is his weakness. Overeem has also been aware of his chin and fighting smarter with takedowns. I imagine he is going to look for takedowns as soon as possible and try to get a ground and pound knockout of his own, or a submission. One of those two outcomes are very likely to happen here, it is just hard to say which one it is. I will take Overeem to get a takedown in the first minute of this fight and work his way to a 1st round finish on the ground. I think u1.5 rounds is interesting at -135 and I could see me taking a 1u shot on that later in the week.

This is a 100% all-in fight for me. Either Rozenstruik gets an early KO or he gets taken down and probably ground and pounded out. I don’t see this fight hitting the 3rd round either way and at their salaries the winner is very likely to end up on the $25k lineup. I am probably going to be pretty evenly split on this fight but I would guess I end up with more Rozenstruik because he is cheaper and I can get him in lineups where Overeem doesn’t fit, where I do want some of my favorite Overeem lineups to have the same build with Rozenstruik so I can have a shot either way. I am ok with stacking this fight in cash as well just to lock in the win and the 100+ points in hopes that my opponents go solo and choose the wrong guy. I don’t see me having a single lineup without this fight but if I do then it will be in cash where I would just avoid it altogether if I don’t stack.

Winner – Alistair Overeem via 1st round (T)KO

 

 

 

Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!

 

 

 

*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru

**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.

*** All my premium bets can be found at this link: https://MMAoddsbreaker.com/premium-picks/

  • Bets are on a 1-10u scale with 1u = $100.
  • I am 104-78 for +258.35u (+$25,835) since May 19, 2018 for all premium bets.