Just three races left in the 2019 season, and the DFSArmy is poised to finish strong. As always, the research is just getting started, so think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research.
Top Plays
Kevin Harvick – Harvicks 2019 Playoff campaign has been masterful, rolling off top ten after top ten, in a plethora of low-risk, high value you performances. With only 2 races left until Homestead, it is about time for Harvick to to flip the switch. He rolls into the Texas fall race as the two-time defending race winner, and what appears to be the fastest car. Now if this race is anything like the Spring race, we will see lots of lead changes and an inability to dominate in a big way. Alas, I reckon Kevin Harvick is the favorite to lead the most laps, and should certainly compete for a win at the end of the day.
Clint Bowyer – Clint had a forgettable qualifying performance, but he is very fast this weekend. With top three short run speed and top two short run speed, Bowyer should easily improve on his 24th starting spot. Well Texas is by no means a stellar track for Bowyer, he finished second here in the spring and has run very well on 1.5 mile tracks this year. I think a top five is very achievable for Bowyer.
Denny Hamlin – Before the cars hit the track this weekend, I had Hamlin capped as a co-favorite to win this race (with Harvick). Harvick was a little more impressive in practice and got the pole, but I still think Hamlin will be a good contrarian play. Hamlin has tremendous form, a trait which I have grown to value a lot, and is the defending race winner. He has a top three car in terms of overall speed and should lead some laps. I don’t think I would pair him with Harvick, though.
Ryan Blaney – I think Blaney is a little underpriced here at just $9400. He has been the cream of the Penske-crop thus far in the playoffs, and Texas represents what I beleive his best oppurtunity to sneak into the final four. He finished 2nd here at this race last year, and was leading laps here in the spring before overheating. This is a very good play that might go overlooked in favor of the SHR crew.
Worth Mentioning
Jimmie Johnson is worth a look, he finished 5th here in the spring and has finished top 11 in all the 1.5 mile tracks in the playoffs thus far.
Value Plays
Ryan Newman – Newman was VERY slow in practice, but I have learned to ignore that when it comes to Newman. He will be just fine when it comes race time. Newman rolls of 25th, which I anticipate is his floor. I think a top 15 is very achievable for Newman.
Paul Menard – Menard will start 31st this week, but he is much faster than that. I have him capped as a top 20 car with top 10 potential should this race get silly. Menard wrestled some back problems last weekend, but seems to have the issue sorted, so I am not worried. Menard should provide good value this weekend.
William Byron – This barely counts as a value play, but I HAVE to talk about William Byron. He has great speed this weekend and Texas is one of his best tracks. He has been so good as of late I can’t imagine he doesn’t improve greatly on his 18th place starting spot. I do have a little concern about his long run speed, but if anyone can figure that out – it is his crew chief, Chad Knaus.
Ross Chastain – This is the best I can do for Punt of the Week, but I don’t love it. Corey Lajoie is also worth a look, but Texas is his worst track.
So there it is folks. We will be talking more strategy on the DFS Army Slack Room right up until lock. Get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. As always, use my research as a launching point for yours. Trust your process, good luck this week, and let’s make some cash.