What’s up everyone?! Welcome to The Inside Line: Xfinity Series. Larkin8 here and this week we will be covering all the drivers participating in the O’Reilly Auto Parts Challenge NASCAR XFINITY Series race at Texas Motor Speedway. If you have any other questions be sure to jump into the NASCAR Talk slack channel for assistance from our NASCAR coaches. You can follow me on Twitter @Larkin8
Christopher Bell $11,300
Bell has to be the top favorite heading into the race. He has had the fastest car over the fast few months and comes to a track where he led 127 laps at earlier this year. While he does have a lot of strong competition this week based on practice speeds I do believe he should be the top choice to dominate and win.
Tyler Reddick $11,000
Reddick Had the best 5 lap average and overall best average time in final practice. Only issue is he failed to make a 10 lap run and we aren’t quite sure how his car will work on the long run. He has been amazing here the last two races having finished 2nd in both and combining to lead 73 laps. Reddick is a legit dom contender and threat for the win.
Cole Custer $10,500
Custer wrecked here in the spring. Besides that he has been fantastic with four top 5s in his other four starts including a win in this race last year. He was very close to both Reddick and Bell in practice speeds and will be a top contender as well. Will be interesting to see where ownership ends up as I feel Custer could end up the lowest owned of the three.
Justin Allgaier $10,200
Simply not the best track for Allgaier. Only 1 top 5 in 18 career races at Texas. Give this and his practice speed he is pretty much a fade unless you are an MME type of person. Even then I would limit ownership. Would need lots of place differential to make it worthwhile.
Chase Briscoe $10,000
Briscoe is in such a weird spot here at 10k. As we saw at Kansas he can compete for wins at this style of track. He also tends to qualify poorly meaning he offers some decent place differential. Love Briscoe in general and I think he contends for a top five I am just unsure if he can reach a DK point total that puts him in the optimal.
Michael Annett $9,800
Annett will need some decent place differential and a top 6 finish to be worth playing. Coincidentally, he did just that in March starting 13th and finishing 6th. He has been rather strong on 1.5 mile tracks this year and has scored numerous strong finishes. Price is high and he isn’t the most reliable driver when it comes to delivering strong finishes but definitely worth a shot in the right circumstances.
Noah Gragson $9,600
Gragson has turned into one of the most consistent drivers in the series having scored 17 top 10s in the last 20 races. He has also finished 7th or better in 14 of those 20 races. This is an incredible run. He is no threat to dominate but if he does offer some place diff he is worth a shot. Really like what he offers as a cash play.
Austin Cindric $9,400
Cindric has top 5 ability with this team but he is very unpredictable. He is a strong qualifier so it is unlikely that he offers enough place diff to be valuable in that way however we have seen him qualify on pole and dominate early parts of races. If this happens he is worth some exposure otherwise I would limit ownership as he is unlikely to end up on close to the optimal lineup.
Ross Chastain $9,200
Ross appears to have a very fast car this week. He had the fastest single lap in final practice and the 5th best five lap average. If this type of speed holds up in the race he is a fantastic play. He is elite on restarts and has the ability to get a car to the front on pure driver effort. Add a fast car to the equation and he is a threat for the win.
Brandon Jones $9,000
Brandon Jones winning at Kansas is the epitome of variance. He is still a bad driver who will likely finish around 8th. Play at your own risk but to reach any meaningful value you will need Garrett Smithley to get involved again.
John H. Nemechek $8,800
John Hunter is always a top 10 threat based on talent alone. The team lacks speed overall but JHN is capable of maximizing things. Often qualifies in the teens and finishes in the 8th place range. Solid place diff play.
Justin Haley $8,600
Haley has been top 10 in all but one 1.5 mile race this year. He is a decent mid tier play with a limited upside. The worse he qualifies the better.
Harrison Burton $8,400
Burton is driving the #18 for Joe Gibbs again this week. This car has elite top 5 upside but Burton has struggled to deliver such performances. If he can stay clean and run a good race he could be a great play. That is a big if based on everything we have seen so far.
Ryan Sieg $8,200
Sieg crashed in practice and will be going to a back up car. This means he will be scored from where he qualifies but will start from the rear of the field. Often in this situation the team will hold off from making a full qualifying run and will end up qualifying further back than normal. If this is the case Sieg could offer some really strong place diff for a driver who has scored a ton of top 10s on this track type.
Jeb Burton $8,000
Burton will be in the #8 for JRM this week. Jeb has been really good in this car in limited action with 4 top 10s in five starts including a 5th here at Texas in March. At this price he is a fantastic play. I expect him to finish around 7th but with top 5 upside.
Josh Williams $7,800
Williams is the highest priced of the lower tier drivers. This certainly limits his value. Williams finished 14th here in the spring which is his best non drafting track finish of the year. This is obviously his highest upside. Realistically he is roughly a 17th to 20th place car.
Gray Gaulding $7,700
Gualding has been on of the top lower tier plays this year. He often finds his way into the top 15 and does it with a positive place differential. Solid play.
Jeremy Clements $7,600
Amazingly, Clements is still under $8,000. He is a top 15 car every week and is coming off a strong 6th place finish at Kansas. Really like the value he offers at this price point. The more place diff the better.
Brandon Brown $7,400
Brown has averaged a 17th place finish on these 1.5 mile tracks. There is very little variation in where he finishes on this style of track and is very consistent. Decent play.
Stefan Parsons $7,200
Parsons will be driving the #15 for JDM this week. He has raced five times for BJ McLeod in the #99 where he finished 12th at Daytona and then averaged a 20th place finish in the standard non drafting ovals. The #99 has shown a bit more speed overall this year so I expect Parsons to struggle to run quite as well but he should still contend for a top 25 finish.
Garrett Smithley $7,100
As always, Smithley will be a top 25 car that if he qualifies poorly will offer a solid option for any lineup.
Ray Black Jr $6,900
Black continues to be massively under priced. He has finished top 20 in 16 of the last 20 races and has been 16th or better in 8 of them. He almost always offers positive place differential as well. Elite low tier cash play and a fantastic gpp play if he qualifies 20th or worse.
Stephen Leicht $6,700
Leicht has been roughly a 25th place car all year. In good races he ends up finishing around 22nd and in bad ones he ends up around 28th. Not a huge fan of him at this price considering how limited his upside has been. Worth a shot if he qualifies poorly.
Landon Cassill $6,500
Start and park. Fade
BJ McLeod $6,400
McLeod will be moving over to the #4 for JDM. This is the flagship car for JDM and in the four races McLeod has driven the 4 car we have seen a higher finishing position. He has finished 19th, 19th, 20th and 22nd in those four races. Very solid for a driver who only has 1 finish better than 22nd in his last 10 races in the #15 we normally see him in. Good play.
Josh Bilicki $6,200
Bilicki has taken over the #99 for BJ McLeod’s race team. This car has been roughly a 20th place car no matter who is driving. On good days it can finish inside the top 20 meaning Bilicki has a decent upside this week.
Vinnie Miller $6,100
Miller will once again only be playable if starting 32nd or worse and offer lots of place differential. Will ride around and stay out of trouble but hard for him to contend with rest of the field.
Matt Mills $6,000
Mills is very similar to his teammate Miller in the sense he is a completely dependent on place diff. However, unlike Miller he has had some solid top 20 finishes as of late and has found ways to maximize his upside, Usually a 25th place car that if all goes well can sneak into the top 20.
Ronnie Bassett Jr $5,900
Bassett is driving the #90 this week. Both Ronnie and his brother Dillon have driven this car to top 15 finishes. This is the best punt play on pure speed and if he can stay out of trouble will be a great play. Expect a top 20 run again this week.
Cj McLaughlin $5,700
CJM is driving the #93 for Ryan Sieg. He is much like Vinnie Miller in the sense he is completely reliant on place differential and also is not a very competitive driver. The thing he has going for himself is that the car is really decent which can help score him a few more places by the end of the race. Expect him to potentially contend for a top 25 if all goes well but likely finish around 28th.
David Starr $5,600
Starr is a top 25 car every week. Only thing that really stops him is reliability issues with the car. If he qualifies poorly he is always worth a play but limited ownership is recommended as he is always at risk of a mechanical issue.
Joey Gase $5,400
Gase has been a decent put play as of late. 6 of his last 9 races he has finished 22nd or better and often does it after qualifying deeper in the field. Looked slow in practice but that is nothing new as well. Started the year unreliable but has turned into a decent play.
Timmy Hill $5,200
Start and Park. Fade
Bobby Earnhardt $5,100
Limited talent but will offer roughly the same upside as Gase and Starr at a lower price. Worth some ownership depending on where he starts.
Chad Finchum $5,000
Finchum will be running the full race this week in the #61. This is a top 25 car with top 20 upside. He is a fantastic play. That being said last time he was in this situation he had a mechanical failure that robbed him of the chance to have a good run. Really like him this week.
JJ Yeley $4,900
Start and park. Fade
Mike Harmon/Joe Nemechek $4,800
Listed on entry list and DK as driving the #17. However it appears Joe Nemechek will be in the car. Either way it is a Start and Park. Fade
Bayley Currey $4,700
Driving the #74 this week normally driven by Mike Harmon. This team doesn’t start and park so therefore Currey has some value. He will need to qualify 35th but if he does so can ride around and collect a decent amount of points at a very low price. Something Harmon has done numerous times this year. Obviously there are much higher upside plays available but Currey is in play this week.