Welcome to The Inside Line: Truck Series. Larkin8 here and this week we will be covering all the drivers participating in the Lucas Oil 150 NASCAR Gander Outdoors Truck Series race at ISM Raceway. If you have any other questions be sure to jump into the NASCAR Talk slack channel for assistance from our NASCAR coaches. You can follow me on Twitter @Larkin8
Ross Chastain $11,600
Ross is 20 points to the good on the championship bubble. Realistically he should be in a comfortable spot to advance to the championship race next week. There is a slight concern Ross plays it conservative and make sure he advances but that goes against everything Ross is about. Won at Gateway which is possibly the closet comparison to this track and also has 2 top 5s at Martinsvillle and a win at Iowa (that was taken away as a DQ). Point being on the driver friendly tracks he has out driven the competition. Top play and legit threat for the win.
Brett Moffitt $11,200
Moffitt is all but locked into the championship race with a 45 point buffer. This should allow him to go for the win. He is the defending race winner here at ISM Raceway and has been fantastic all year long. Top dom threat and potential race winner.
Grant Enfinger $10,900
Enfinger is regularly a top 5 truck and often is a threat to dominate any race. He has dropped in form the last couple of months though and isn’t someone I expect to contend for the win. At this price unless he can deliver some dom points he will be a difficult play. He did lead 52 laps early at Gateway.
Stewart Friesen $10,500
Friesen has finished 5th and 6th the last two years here at ISM Raceway. Solid top 5 threat but these flat tracks haven’t been the type of track we see him dominate at. Very similar to Engfinger in the sense that unless he can score some fast laps and lead some he will struggle to be of value. Pay close attention to practice to see if he is offering elite speed.
Johnny Sauter $10,200
Sauter has been fairly good here at ISM even winning the 2017 race. However, he has only led 16 laps in his 10 career races here. Also, this team has lacked overall speed and hasn’t been a dom threat much at all. He has maintained a ridiculous price point that he hasn’t lived up to all year long. Limit ownership.
Todd Gilliland $9,900
Gilliland took the 10th fastest truck to victory lane last week so naturally he because ultra expensive. The KBM trucks have been incredible here in the past but I don’t anticipate Gilliland to be able to content this week. Should be a top 10 truck but that isn’t enough to pay off this price.
Ben Rhodes $9,600
Top 10 truck this week like most weeks. Has had mediocre finishes here but has ran inside the top 10 for most of the last two years. Place differential play if he qualifies poorly.
Chandler Smith $9,400
Chandler is driving the #46 truck this week for KBM. This will be his 4th career truck start. He finished 8th at Iowa after dominating early in the #51 and finished 2nd at Bristol as well. He drove the #46 which is the part time, fourth truck for KBM just once at Gateway where he started at the rear of the field and drove up to 4th. The most talented of all the KBM drivers this week makes him an exciting driver to watch. Should contend for a top 5.
Austin Hill $9,200
Hill is 9 points to the good over Matt Crafton in the playoff battle. This means we should expect a more conservative approach that will value stage points or finishing position. Hill is driving the truck that won this race last year and I expect him to run inside the top 10 all night. I like him in general but with the realization that he could settle for an 8th place finish even if he has the 3rd or 4th best truck.
Matt Crafton $9,000
Crafton is on the opposite side of the 9 point buffer. Having to make up 9 points means he will also have to attack for stage points but also could be in a position where he would need to finish ultra high or even win. He will have to be aggressive to make up points on a driver who has been very consistent all year long. If he runs a clean race he should finish well within the top 10 and is a top 5 threat. Because there is some added risk where they might chase a win I like him more for GPPs and would consider avoiding in Cash.
Brandon Jones $8,800
Jones is back in the #51 truck this week for the fifth time in 2019. He had a 5th and 2nd to his name in this truck and was in line to win at Kentucky before getting wreck battling for the lead. He has qualified HORRIBLY this year and if that continues means he will be a great place differential play. This truck is one of the best in the field and should be considered a top dom threat. That means trusting Brandon Jones to get the job done which I am not comfortable with. Either was this could be a great situation or another massive disappointment from Jones.
Harrison Burton $8,600
There are times when Harrison Burton has looked like a really good prospect. One of those times was this race last year when he led 46 laps and finished 3rd. Much like his other KBM teammates they are all dom threats based on quality of truck but driver quality is the issue. Top 5 contender.
Sheldon Creed $8,400
10th in this race last year which was only his 3rd start on asphalt. He finished 6th at Iowa and 7th at Gateway in 2019. He seems to be a top 10 truck on this style of track. Solid mid tier play.
John H. Nemechek $8,200
I do not care if he is the most unlucky driver in NASCAR. He is a top play this week. He is a dom threat and contender for the win. He led 31 laps last race here before a suspension failure ended his race. 2nd in 2017, 2nd in 2015 and four finishes of 7th or better between 2014 and 2017. Top 5 is very realistic and he is the type of driver to take this race over and win.
Tyler Ankrum $8,000
Ankrum is 15 points behind Austin Hill for the last championship race spot. He will need to attack hard and look to make up as many points as possible. He finished 6th here last year and I consider him a very solid GPP play.
Derek Kraus $7,800
Kraus is back for his 5th career Truck Series start in the #19 vehicle prepared by Bill McAnally Racing. His first race came in this event last year where he finished 8th. The 2019 K&N West Series champ should be a viable mid tier play who I expect to finish around 12th but offer top 10 upside.
Dylan Lupton $7,700
Lupton is driving the #5 for DGR Crosley this week. He has finished top 10 in 3 of 4 starts for DGR this year but those were heavily aided by struggles of others. He is another driver who will compete for a top 15 and if all things break his way can score a top 10.
Ty Majeski $7,500
Majeski will be making his Truck Series debut this week. He had a very rough 2018 driving in the Xfinity Series for Roush-Fenway. He has looked a bit accident prone in the top series but he is one of the best short track drivers in the nation and has looked really good in ARCA finishing top 5 in all 6 races and winning 3 of them in 2019. This truck is a decent mid level team that runs inside the top 15 and will also offer top 10 upside. Good situation for Majeski to show his worth.
Sam Mayer $7,300
Mayer is making his 3rd career start in the #21 for GMS. He has had a top 10 truck in both races this year but has been caught up in incidents and failed to get the finishes he should. His price is really solid and is another youngster with top 10 upside for this race.
Anthony Alfredo $7,200
Alfredo is back in the #15 for DGR this week. He is basically a 12th place truck every time he is at the track. Has had a few crashes this year so he is a bit risky but overall can offer good value. I think the depth of the field could see him struggle to reach the top 10 but top 15 very likely.
Austin Wayne Self $7,000
Self’s best finish in three races here is 19th. With this deep of a field he will struggle to get inside the top 15. His normal upside is dropped a good 8-10 points for me this week. Worth a shot if he offers great place differential though.
Jordan Anderson $6,900
Anderson will likely finish inside the top 25 but not offer a lot of value overall. He finished 13th here in 2017 when there were 18 DNFs. Otherwise he is roughly a 23rd place truck. Nothing special here.
Tyler Dippel $6,700
Love Dippel this week at this price. He is still his normal top 15 upside but at a price $1,000+ his contemporaries. Finished 14th in this race last year.
Tanner Gray $6,500
Gray is making his 2nd career start driving the #7 for DGR. He had a decent run last race at Martinsville which gives me some hope he will do well this week. Truck is top 15 quality and if he has a clean race I could see him scoring a solid top 15 finish. Will look for some place differential.
Jesse Little $6,300
Little has had a very rough year and due to this has scaled back his operations. Plan is for this type to go away at the end of the year and for Little to look for rides with other teams. He is a decent driver and can score a top 15 but he just hasn’t shown the same speed as last year. Definitely worth some ownership in gpps at this price though.
Gus Dean $6,100
Dean struggles to finish inside the top 20 on the easiest of weeks. With this strong of field he will have such a limited upside unless numerous trucks have issues. If he qualifies extremely bad he is worth a go though.
Jennifer Jo Cobb $6,000
If she makes the race the best case scenario is for her to start 30th or worse and get 8+ DNFs. If this happens she can be viable but she has the worst upside on the slate.
Natalie Decker $5,800
This seems like the type of track Decker gets back to her wrecking ways. Unless she qualifies in the very back and you want a place differential play I would probably avoid. She does have top 20 upside which is likely better than most in this range.
Danny Bohn $5,700
Bohn is a rather successful Modified Series driver who made his Truck Series debut last time out. He took the #30 truck from 19th and finished 8th after staying out of trouble all day. The #30 has been a solid mid pack truck even scoring some top 10s with Brennan Poole. Bohn could definitely score a top 15 finish even if we have a tame race. That would be a great result at this price.
Carson Ware $5,500
Driving the #33 for Reaume. One of the true punts. Like Cobb will need as much help as possible to score well. Given the other value out there in this range only play in MME situations
Joe Nemechek $5,400
Nemechek is driving the #87 this week for his own team. This could be a start and park simply to help pay the bill of getting to Arizona for his son to race or Joe could run the whole race in which case he is a top 20 truck with top 15 upside. Will have to wait and see what he does in practice.
Carson Hocevar $5,200
Carson is driving a 2nd truck this week for Jordan Anderson Racing. They are utilizing the #56 and their points to help make the race. Carson is a solid driver who will be making his asphalt truck series start this week. Given strength of the field I would say he is a 22nd place truck with top 20 upside if all goes well. Practice times will give us a better Idea of what to do with him as will qualifying. Like him better than the traditional punts of Cobb, Plott and Ware.
Colby Howard $5,100
Howard is a young driver with minimal race under his belt in higher category series. He has finished top 10 in all four of his ARCA starts which even in a weaker series is still a solid feat. He will be driving the #20 for Young Motorsports this week so the truck is decent enough. Will all depend on the talent level of the driver. Probably limit his upside to 18th-20th but if he offers some place differential that isn’t too bad given his price,
Kyle Plott $5,000
Literal copy and paste from Ware. Driving the #34 for Reaume. One of the true punts. Like Cobb will need as much help as possible to score well. Given the other value out there in this range only play in MME situations