Welcome to the Cup Series Setup for Fanduel. Here we will be breaking down the best plays for Fanduel purposes. My name is RyanLarkin88 and you can follow me @Larkin8 on twitter. This week the Cup Series is at Homestead. The VIP Member Research Station and Domination Station will be ready to go for you to help create your lineups so be sure to check that out. Also, jump in the NASCAR VIP Slack and get some great insight into this weeks race.
Top Tier Plays
The Championship 4
It is extremely difficult to separate the four championship drivers by much. They all showed up in practice with top speed. We all know they each have the ability to take over this race and dominate. I believe all four will stay top 5 for most of the race and be in contention for the win late. It is reasonable to play two ultra top tier drivers who lead 100+ laps and finish inside the top 5. This should be enough to have two of these drivers in the optimal lineup. I personally like Truex the most for his long run speed but Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin were killer on the short runs and could easily do some damage. Lastly, Harvick has been the best here out of the entire series with a 6.56 average finish and finishing top 5 in 60% of his starts.
Kyle Larson
The top pick to challenge the Championship four will be Kyle Larson. He is fantastic here at running the top and carrying speed that nobody can seem to match. Larson has led 132, 145 and 45 laps his last three races here and has 3 top 5s in his last 4 Homestead races. There is some risk with Larson though as he is a bit accident prone. He had the second highest crash frequency in 2019 and his inability to stay out of the wall last year cost him a potential shot at the win. Still he is an elite play worth attention.
Value Plays
Erik Jones
With the running order being set by points there is little edge in terms of place differential in the field. Jones on the Surface has the best situation this week starting 16th for what should be a top 10 car. The 1.5 mile track is his specialty and where he performs the best overall. He won at Darlington where there is massive tire fall off and finished 7th at Atlanta as well. 4 top 5s and 8 top 10s on the 1.5 mile tracks in 2019 is a strong example of what he can do this weekend. Top 10 finish from 16th starting position would be one of the best scores of the day.
Kurt Busch
Busch will start 13th this week and is perhaps the drivers I feel most comfortable with below $11,000. He has scored a top 10 in almost every 1.5 mile race this year minus a couple where he had issues. He has finished 13th or better in 4 of the last 5 Homestead races as well. I look for him to finish around 8th for this race scoring well.
Low Tier/Punts
Austin Dillon
Dillon has perhaps the best value of anyone this week. He has finishes of 14th, 12th, 11th and 11th in his last four Homestead races and will start from the 22nd position. Austin is one of a few drivers with obvious positive place differential who can add to a solid top 15 finish. He definitely has a feel for this track on the long run and is worth attention in all formats.
Ricky Stenhouse
Stenhouse starts 23rd this week and like Dillon offers some good positive place differential upside. He has finished 15th and 16th the last two years in this race. Of course with the highest crash rate in the series he is always a bit risky but he is definitely worth a look in gpps. A top 15 with a few place diff points could be whats needed at $6,500
Matt dibenedetto
Dibenedetto’s value and upside is being over sold a bit this week. Best case scenario is likely a 15th place finish or maybe slightly better if things break his way. His 8th at Darlington was great but his best finish this year on traditional 1.5 mile tracks was 14th last time out at Texas. At $5,500 and starting 21st he is definitely worth playing because that is a killer price but perhaps limit expectations for what is probably a 17th place car.
This will conclude this edition of The Monster Energy Cup Series Setup for Fanduel. If you would like to reach out and talk NASCAR Follow me on twitter @Larkin8 and join me as well as our other DFS Army NASCAR contributors (Brady Miller, Taco, and NillyJay) in the NASCAR coaching channels.