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The Sway Bar: NASCAR Draftkings Plays, Fades and Values for Kansas Playoff Race

A condensed weekend means a condensed article, as I want to get this out as soon as inspection is done. It should be a bit of a chalky week, but I am confident we can find some sneaky value. As always, the research is just getting started, so think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research.

Qualifying was weird. Which means DFS will be weird. But we can find some value. Here we go.

 Top Plays

Kevin Harvick – Harvick had some inspection trouble and opted not to post a qualifying time, but will not be subject to any further penalty come racetime. This means he will roll off 40th with the fastest car in the field. He was quick here in the spring, boasting the top driver rating and leading the most laps, before finishing 13th. That is about his floor this week, which may even put him in the optimal. Harvick will be super chalky, though.

Joey Logano – Logano used to be a guaranteed top five for Joey, but recently he has struggled to find any consistency. That said, a 29th place starting spot makes him relevant regardless of his track history. Joey has forgettable short-run speed but top give long run speed. I expect a classic Joey performance here – lots of controlled aggression on the way to a decent points day, and MAYBE compete for a win. He has to be on his best behavior here though, as he is on the playoff cutline. Don’t expect a domination here – just a workman like performance from the veteran.

Chase Elliott – Long time readers will know this pick is a bit out of the ordinary for me. I am typically a very conservative DFS player, preferring to make high percentage plays based on past performance and practice speed. This pick doesn’t really fit the bill for a top play. But I can’t ignore it. Chase has to make something happen this week as he is in great danger of being eliminated. His short and long run speed is below average, he qualified 14th which is almost a deadzone, and he is overpriced. BUT – Kansas is one of his better tracks AND Hendrick was super solid here in the spring. I strongly believe that this team will find speed come race-time and compete for a win. He should go under-owned due to the factors I mentioned, so lets be contrarian.

Clint Bowyer – Okay, enough scary risky picks, lets get back to a safer pick. Bowyer has pretty solid speed all around despite what his 21st starting spot would infer. Lots of cars were trimed out for qualifying, but Bowyer wasn’t. Despite not leading many laps here in the spring, Bowyer logged a good chunk of fastlaps and ended up in the top five. I expect a similar performance this weekend.

Ryan Blaney – Blaney has a miserable run here in the spring, but he is the de facto polesitter this weekend as far as I am concerned. The bottom line should be the preferred line at the start, and he should get around the top two without much trouble. I expect he will dominate most of the first stage. There is a small chance Brad Keslowski will get the jump on him on the start, but I think Blaney is faster. I will aim to be significantly over on Blaney.

 

Fades

Hemric and Ragan won’t be able to maintain position off the start. They are not good plays.

Values

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – RSJ was a legit top 7 car here in the spring, and it would appear they brought that speed with them this week. His long run speed is a little concerning, but based off his electric performance here in the spring, I anticipate he will overcome that. He starts 19th but a top 10 is more than achievable.

Chris Buescher – I thought this would be a fade Chris Buescher type of week. I figured he would qualify too well. I am not entirely sure what happened, but a 26th place qualifying effort makes him a great play. He was great here in the spring, boasting a 9th place average running position. He has been a staple in the top 20 here for most of his career, and could be in position for a top ten this weekend.

William Byron – At $8200, Slick Bill Byron doesn’t really qualify as a “value” play, but I need to talk about him. Kansas is a horrible track for him on paper, boasting just a 16th place average running position. BUT – he has speed. All the Hendrick cars do. He has a DFS friendly starting spot (25th), and he has top 8 long run speed. He has won at Kansas in the truck series, and has run well here in the xFinity series. I think this will be a breakout Kansas performance for Slick Bill, who needs a good run to continue his Championship hopes.

Corey Lajoie – Punt of the week. I don’t even love this play, but I think +8 place differential is a possible here. Probably the best you will get at this range. Parker Kilgerman is worth a cheeky look too.

So there it is folks. We will be talking more strategy on the DFS Army Slack Room right up until lock. Get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. As always, use my research as a launching point for yours. Trust your process, good luck this week, and let’s make some cash.