What’s up everyone?! Welcome to The Inside Line: Xfinity Series. Larkin8 here and this week we will be covering all the drivers participating in the Drive Sober 200 NASCAR XFINITY Series race at Dover International Speedway If you have any other questions be sure to jump into the NASCAR Talk slack channel for assistance from our NASCAR coaches. You can follow me on Twitter @Larkin8
Christopher Bell $11,800
The two time time defending Dover winner. He will be one of the main dominators and the top pick for the win. Outside of a mechanical failure or wreck it will be very unlikely that Bell isn’t on the Optimal lineup.
Cole Custer $11,300
Custer is Bell’s biggest competition for dom points and the win this week. He led 38 laps before finishing 2nd in this race last year. In the spring race this year he started on the pole and led 155 laps before eventually finishing 4th. He was fastest in final practice and has a strong shot at the win this week.
Tyler Reddick $10,700
Reddick is a top 5 machine this year and I expect him to do that yet again this week. Due to this he is always a threat to win especially if the high line can become the main line late in the race. Overall I have him behind Bell, Custer and Allgaier in terms of win threat and dom points but definitely can’t rule him out.
Justin Allgaier $10,400
Finished 4th or better in 6 of the 7 Dover races since joining JRM including a dominating win in May 2018. This track really works well for his driving style and I expect him to run upfront the entire race.
Austin Cindric $10,100
Cindric has 3 top 10s in three starts here at Dover. He should put in another top 5 performance but at this price and little likelihood of scoring dom points he is a borderline fade this week. Look for some decent place diff to make him worth while or if he starts from the pole maybe can be the early race dominator.
Chase Briscoe $9,800
Ran 7th all race until finding his way up to 5th late in the going back in may. He is a solid overall play who will run inside the top 10 but with little to zero dom upside his price makes him a difficult play. Hard to outrun the elite guys here.
Noah Gragson $9,500
Gragson had a rough go of it here in the Spring but even before that he was only having an average day. He is a top 5 driver often but it tends to be track dependent. I anticipate him competing inside the top 10 but I do believe he will struggle to break into the top 5 come race end. Another driver reliant on place diff.
Harrison Burton $9,300
Burton is back in the #18 for Joe Gibbs. This is great news for him as this is a track Gibbs is elite at. The car is capable of a top 5 and I believe Burton can deliver one. He is a decent stud play to pair with doms but I don’t believe he can score many dom points on his own.
Michael Annett $9,100
Annett is rather average here but is the type of driver in a strong car who can score a solid top 10 with some place diff. He is 100% place diff dependent so avoid if he qualifies too high.
Zane Smith $8,900
Zane ran really well in the first race here this year even managing to finish the second stage in 5th. He fell to 9th by the end of the race. This #8 car has been rather strong this year and often carries top 5 speed. I think he will run in the 6th-8th range with top 5 upside if things break his way. Very similar to Burton but a little cheaper.
Brandon Jones $8,700
Jones is the best example of what quality of equipment can do here. In four career starts with RCR his best finish was 17th. In his three starts with Joe Gibbs he has 3 top 10s with a best finish of 6th this race last year. He is a really strong play this week. As always he is a crash risk so be cautious for cash games but gpp he is legit.
John H. Nemechek $8,500
Nemechek has scored back to back top tens here at Dover. He is the type of driver who might qualify outside the top 10 and offer some solid place differential plus the top 10 finishing upside. In May he started 16th and finished 8th. That type of performance would be fantastic. Someone to pay attention to post qualifying.
Ryan Sieg $8,300
Sieg is a fringe top 10 car this week. Will definitely need the place differential to have a good day on DK.
Justin Haley $8,200
Haley is similar to Sieg and Nemechek. All have top 10 upside and are place differential dependent.
Jeremy Clements $8,000
Clements has only 1 top 15 finish in his last 14 Dover races. This is rather unusual for him as he is a top 15 guy nearly every week at this point. Still worth a shot but based on his history here I would expect him to struggle to deliver.
Ross Chastain $7,800
Ross Chastain is back in the #4 for JDM this week. Finished 12th here in the Spring and has 5 straight top 15s driving this car at non plate tracks. I like Chastain to finish just outside the top 10. Solid price here too.
Gray Gaulding $7,700
Gaulding ran 20th here earlier this year. It is perhaps his worst race so far this season overall. Not sure what to really make of him this week but his 21st place practice time doesn’t give confidence at all. If he qualifies poorly he is worth a shot as he is too often a top 15 car. Similar to Clements though he could fail to deliver what we expect from him.
Brandon Brown $7,500
While I have the expectation that Gaulding and Clements may finish further back than normal that means some drivers have to do a little better than normal. Brown is one of those drivers. Finished 13th here in May and was 17th in practice. Showed decent 10 lap speed as well. Brown has had issues as of late as well which could lead to lower ownership than the others.
Garrett Smithley $7,300
23rd last two races at Dover. He is always place differential reliant. If he qualifies 30th or worse he could be worth a play. Nice that he is no longer $8,000 too.
Josh Williams $7,200
Fringe top 20 car. Not expecting much from him this week. Wait and see where he qualifies.
Stefan Parsons $7,000
Parson has had a solid few races driving the #99 this year. Top 25 car but at this price he will need place differential to go with that.
Landon Cassill $6,900
Start and park. Fail
Stephen Leicht $6,800
Don’t expect much from Leicht. Only playable if he qualifies deep in the field. Limited finishing position upside.
Ray Black Jr $6,700
Much like teammate Gaulding, Black had a below average finish her in May. He ended up 24th. I believe they can improve on this and be a top 20 car but limited upside compared to what we are used to. Still one of the cheapest cars with that kind of upside so can be a decent play.
Dillon Bassett $6,500
Bassett showed some decent long run speed in final practice. Based on practice he is a 16th-18th place car. With a couple incidents that could see him run top 15. Could be a fantastic low tier play. If he qualifies outside the top 20 Bassett is someone you will definitely want ownership for.
Vinnie Miller $6,300
Miller is a straight place differential play. Considering this race will have a few start and parks he is playable. We should expect 8-10 dnfs meaning his floor is decent. Limited overall upside so we will need him to qualify really deep in the field. Luckily he does this a lot.
Matt Mills $6,100
Mills is very similar to Miller but with a slightly better finish position upside. Only downside is Mills also out qualifies Miller. If Mills qualifies 32nd or worse I believe he has a shot a breaking 30 points on DK. Solid punt score.
BJ McLeod $5,900
McLeod like his teammate Leicht is solely dependent on place differential. If he starts ultra deep in the field give him a go but he has a limited upside.
JJ Yeley $5,700
Start and park. Fade.
Joey Gase $5,500
Gase will attempt the entire race but appears to be one of the slowest cars in the field. Reliability is always a concern especially at Dover. 29th here in the Spring matches his poor practice speeds this week.
David Starr $5,400
Very similar play to Gase. Barely a top 30 car. Will run multiple laps down. Will need multiple DNFs to be remotely worth playing on DK.
Timmy Hill $5,300
Hill is a top 25 car with top 20 upside this week. If everything goes well he should be able to score a top 20 which is fantastic at this price. Solid punt play.
Chad Finchum $5,200
Finchum is in the #61 this week with legit sponsorship. Like Hill, Finchum has a top 20 upside car. I actually think Finchum is a safer play overall and is the best play under $7,000. If he qualifies poorly and gives some place differential I would recommend getting a lot of ownership on Finchum. Set up perfectly to be on optimal lineup.
Bayley Currey $5,100
start and park. fade.
Kyle Weatherman $5,000
Should be a start and park. If not will be slowest car in field. Fade.
Carl Long $4,900
Start and park. fade.
Mike Harmon $4,800
The slowest car in the field . Will need 10+ DNFs to be viable.