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NASCAR Calming the Chaos 10/6/19 – Dover part 2

Hello again Army, and welcome to this week’s Calming the Chaos!  Round 2 of the playoffs starts this weekend at Dover, and with the huge wildcard that is Talladega awaiting the drivers next week, you can bet that they will be trying to punch their ticket now instead of being in a “must win” situation at Kansas.  For now, let’s get to this week!

As always, if you haven’t already,  be sure to check out my driver list & tools suite, as this article will directly tie into it.  If you have any questions, reach out to me in Slack at #nillys-garage-nas-mlb and I’ll be happy to help however I can.

Dover International Raceway

Dover, as its nickname implies (the Monster Mile) is a one-mile short(ish) intermediate track that is, well, a bit of a monster for drivers to try and conquer.  Some have certainly done better than others here, so we’ll want to lean on them a bit more (we’ll get to them, don’t worry).  Use the May race as a good indicator of how we can expect this one to unfold (outside of any playoff overtime shenanigans that we might see), as well as Bristol and even some 1.5-mile tracks (this track is sort of like a shrunken down version of some of them, with its big banking and high speeds compared to some other short(er) tracks).

Also, because there’s a bit more speed here than other small(er) tracks, we need to be careful with the punts.  It’s not as bad as Phoenix, but it’s not like Martinsville where a slower car can run higher than it could otherwise with a good driver behind the wheel.  When it’s more about speed, it’s going to be harder for them to move up (without the help of some wrecks), and if there are a handful of random cautions, they can quickly get caught in staggered formation hell.  The same can hold true for drivers in good cars that are prone to penalties or other random mishaps.  Going a lap or two down here can be devastating, as can be an unscheduled green flag stop!

Playoff picture

The start of round 2 brings a reset in the points, so let’s take a look at how everybody is sitting:

As you can see, things are pretty tight, and a bad race here can spell disaster, since the wreck-fest known as Talladega awaits us next week.  That holds especially true for Larson and those below him, as there’s a sizable gap between them and the other seven drivers.

Lineup construction / correlation

Dover gives us 400 laps, and as you should know by now, that means we need some dominators!  On DraftKings we’re looking at or of them, and over on FanDuel we’ll be okay with or 2.  With that in mind, I’d look to use on both sites for cash games, and for GPP you can go that route or use some other styles (a solo dominator lineup on DraftKings is not out of the question either, but more on that later).

Hybrids

Another week, another poor qualifying run by Kyle Busch, another week you can just plug him in wherever you’d like to.  Easy enough!

Keselowski/Logano and Bowyer round out the group this week, and while they’re all cash safe, I’d probably go after guys like Kyle Busch and Chase first.  It’s not a terrible idea to run multiple cash ladders and get exposure to them that way (maybe build around Bowyer in a secondary ladder, for example).  For GPP though, they’re all fair game and can be stacked with any and everybody you’d like.

Dominators

For general cash purposes, we can look at Hamlin here, as he shouldn’t have much trouble returning value, and could see some decent upside if he can soak up most of the stage one lead laps.  If you go that route, definitely get some hefty exposure to the pivots in GPP.

Chase is up next (perhaps ahead of Hamlin, actually), and he’s coming in hot after winning at the Roval last week.  He’s a beast at this track with a ridiculous 4.43 average finish over seven races.  He’s also dominated two races here already, giving him a very high floor and ceiling.  He’ll probably be a bit chalky though, so for GPP you could always fade him and hope he can’t dominate here, as he will need to in order to pay off.

For the pivots, look at TruexHarvick, and then Larson.  I like them in that order.  Truex is cash safe as he’s a monster here (monster at the Monster Mile, I made a funny!), but we can pay down to Chase without losing anything, so that’s the only reason I’m listing him as a GPP pivot (it feels so disrespectful to call him that here).  Get lots of exposure to him, as well as Harvick, as they both have the capability of putting up massive scores.

I’m not as big on Larson, mostly because I don’t think he’ll push the issue with Hamlin a whole lot at the start (out of respect of not trying to win the race on lap 1, which could lead to a crash).  However, if the start of the race does favor Larson, he’s shown he can dominate in 2019 when given the chance, so the upside is absolutely there.  I would use him as a direct pivot to Hamlin instead of stacking these two, as I think once either of these two gives up the lead, they aren’t getting it back.  I think it would be better to pick one and take them with another driver for mid/late-race domination.

Speaking of stacking, the rest are all fair game here.  You could even do something silly like stack Truex and Harvick together.  With 400 laps to go around, there will be plenty of opportunity for two of these guys to grab 100-150 lead laps (which is exactly what happened at the May race), even if they do lack the place differential.  The only caveat would be stacking Hamlin and Larson for the reasons I mentioned earlier.  Anyway, get tons of exposure to these guys, as they will likely be vital to taking home some money this week (I think it’s a lock that at least one of them is in the winning lineup, possibly two).

This would be a great spot to use the dom stacking feature in the DS!

Studs

Jones is my guy here, and I love his starting position and slightly reduced price.  I don’t see him being overly popular, but he could snag a top-5 along with some random lead laps (say, about 20-40 of them), which could easily put him in the winning lineup.  Get some exposure!

Blaney and Kurt are just sort of “meh” to me this week.  They’re worth sprinkling around just in case they find a top-5, but I don’t love their chances.  I’d prefer to take shots with Jones instead.

Value studs

Suarez is cheap and is practically a top-10 machine here, making him a very strong play in all formats.  Like I said in the notes, he’s basically a cheaper Chase here without the dominator potential.  Fortunately for us, he’ll start 15th, which will help give him an extra boost to his ceiling.

DiBenedetto is hot on his trails and can be used wherever you find room for him.  I wouldn’t worry too much about him “only” finishing 20th here in May.  The light hadn’t gone off at that point, for him or his team, and I expect him to bring the heat this time.  If you can afford Newman, he’s a fine option in all formats too, or you can focus on paying up for him in GPP since others will likely go to Suarez/DiBenedetto.

Buescher is my favorite GPP play in this group.  His history here stinks, but this is certainly the kind of track he usually excels at, and I think it’s just a matter of time before the light goes off and we see him in the top-15 (or better) all race like how he is at those 1.5-mile tracks.

After that, it’s Bowman/Byron, then Johnson/Almirola.  I like them in that order (I like the first two a lot more than the second pair and would probably have at least double the exposure to them).

This would be a decent spot to use the dom stacking feature in the DS.

Value

The Dillon brothers (Austin and Ty) are both in play here, though Austin gets the nod due to how cheap he is and because he’s starting deeper with more upside.  Both are good to go in all formats, but I’d favor Austin whenever possible.

Hemric/Preece are up next, and both are fine in all formats thanks to their deep starting positions.  I do like Hemric more, especially since he needs to find a new ride for 2020, so I think I would get about 5-10% more ownership for him.  Both could certainly be in the winning lineup though!

The rest are in play but I would say McDowellStenhouseWallaceRagan/Menard, then Chastain/Tifft/LaJoie…in that order.  The first three are a few notches above the rest, while the bottom three are a few notches lower than the middle guys.

This would be a decent spot to use the dom stacking feature in the DS, but if you do, try to favor those I mentioned as the stronger plays.

Punts

One big ol’ MEH here!  As I mentioned earlier, I don’t like punts here, just like I don’t at other tracks like Phoenix where they are at a serious disadvantage for fantasy purposes.  Unless we see some huge wrecks, these guys aren’t going to pay off.  They’ll need a lot of help to move up and pay off.  I’d prefer to narrow down the pool and side with the odds here by fading all of them.

Stacks

It’s been a while but there are some interesting stack options this week (see the driver list for more info).  Hendrick and JGR are the main targets, but some small Penske stacks might work out, too.  Look for teams and manufacturers to help each other get through this first race of round 2!

Pivots

There are so many great pivot options this week, but I believe the dominators and value/stud groups will be the most important, so I would focus most of my attention there.  After that, look at the hybrids and studs to help fill in the blanks, but I don’t mind just going with the better options there and using the other groups to help differentiate your lineups.

Closing thoughts

As usual, we switch gears from one week to the next.  Last week only gave us 109 laps, but with nearly four times that many this week, our approach needs to adjust accordingly.  Also keep in mind that the punts are inherently weaker here, so going for a more balanced lineup approach could pay off in both cash games and GPP alike.  Mind those pivots, as there are some very good options, eat some chalk, and let’s go win some money.  NFL can’t have all the fun!  Good luck this weekend, and I’ll see you all in Slack!