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BigMarley3’s UFC Tampa DraftKings Breakdown

BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown

 

Event – UFC on ESPN+ 19                                           Location – Tampa, Florida

 

This weekend, we have a 14-fight card in Tampa. DraftKings has some OK contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $100k being paid out. I will probably stick to the top GPPs this week and throw a handful of entries at that $25k prize. Typically, I stay around 20 lineups each week and go after that big GPP and then max the $4 20-entry max GPP as well. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.

 

A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.

 

With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights and hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:

 

JJ Aldrich $8,900 vs Lauren Mueller $7,300

JJ Aldrich

Age: 27

Height: 5’5

Weight: 125

Reach: 67.5”

Gym: 303 Training Center

From: Colorado

UFC Record: 3-2

Fight Matrix: 49

Last Fought: 7 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: -165

 

JJ Aldrich had her momentum halted in her last match. She had a great fight with Maycee Barber who is a top prospect. She was able to bust Barber up & drop her in the first round but was finished in the second. Aldrich is a close friend & training partner of Rose Namajunas and will be well prepared here. Aldrich is a skilled striker & steadily improving. She is a southpaw, and pretty technical striker. She is very good at controlling distance & staying long. She will paw out her lead land to find her range & then drop her straight-left hand right down the pipe. She has a nasty right hook, straight-left hand combination. She will use the check right hook to counter when opponents overextend. She has a solid jab. She is very composed & I really like the way she controls distance. She will go forward, but constantly is aware of the range. She feints well, as well as sliding in & out of range. She is great at sliding away & countering with her straight-left or even a right hook, straight-left combination. She can overextend herself at times on punches. She doesn’t move her head much & it’s there to be hit if her opponents can eat her shot & counter. She has nice kicks; body kicks & inside leg kicks. She will throw front kicks up the middle to the body & head. She holstered her kicks vs Viana & Barber, but I imagine she will bring them back again here. She will throw nice spinning backfists, and when Aldrich gets confident she is pretty good at landing long combinations. She does stand heavy on her lead leg & struggled a bit with the kicks of Viana. She wasn’t able to find her range as well, because she was forced to defend kicks. In the first round of her last fight, her striking looked great. Her straight-left was on fire & she even dropped Maycee Barber. She was doing a good job of punching herself out of the clinch & not letting Barber be comfortable at range. Barber was forced to throw caution to the wind & ate shots to give shots, coming over the top with heavy hooks. Aldrich does leave her chin high & doesn’t move her head much. She was hurt with a combination on the feet in the second round & then finished against the cage standing. It was the first TKO loss of Aldrich’s career. Aldrich has 2 KO/TKO’s herself.

Aldrich has improved her grappling, but it is still where she has been exploited in the past. She showed strong clinch technique against Danielle Taylor, timing good upper body lock entries & tripping her to the floor. She was able to dig double underhooks & control Polyana Viana against the cage but didn’t have much offense from there. She isn’t bad when fighters get inside on her in the striking, digging the double unders & pushing her opponent to the cage or taking them down. Against Maycee Barber, she showed some solid dirty boxing. When she fought Polyana Viana, she was taken down & got her back taken, but was able to quickly sweep to top position, move to half guard & land some nice G&P. She isn’t very good on top overall & when she takes top position she will usually just stall out. When she does get taken down she has a decent guard & guard recovery. She works the butterfly guard & will try to create scrambles to stand up. Fighters in the past have been able to just use strength & pressure to negate it and do damage on the ground. Aldrich has been submitted two times. She has no submissions herself.

 

Lauren Mueller

Age: 27

Height: 5’5

Weight: 125

Reach: 67”

Gym: Alliance MMA

From: California

UFC Record: one-two

Fight Matrix: NR

Last Fought: 6 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: L2

Betting Odds: +145

 

Lauren Mueller has dropped back to back fights after winning her UFC debut. Mueller is going to be the bigger fighter most likely with Aldrich fighting the majority of her career at 115.  Mueller starts fast in fights. She uses a lot of forward pressure early, mixed in with head movement, and punching combinations. Muller has good hand speed. She has a fast jab & good one-two. Mueller will throw heavy hooks & overhands. Her jab, overhand right is a pretty solid combination. Mueller will attack the body with hooks. Mueller throws heavy low kicks & front kicks up the middle. She will throw hard front knees to the body. Late in the fight with Botelho, Mueller came forward hard with heavy combinations, but showed poor fight IQ following her to the ground after dropping her with a leg kick. She will throw superman punches & spinning backfists. She does throw hard. She only has 1 career TKO win, so she doesn’t have a ton of power.

Lauren Mueller is not a great grappler. In her last match vs Polyana Botelho, she was taken down easily against the cage in round one. She was controlled against the cage also and ate a lot of knees & short elbows. That was the tale of the fight mainly as Mueller spent the majority of the fight with her back pushed against the cage or on her back. In previous fights, Mueller had success landing punches & knees from the Thai plum. Mueller wasn’t terrible off her back. She wasn’t accepting position & was always looking to improve position or get back to her feet. She has pretty good guard retention, a decent butterfly guard & digs underhooks from half guard fairly well. Mueller will catch kicks & take fighters down. On top, she is very aggressive with G&P, and can lose position to try to land shots. She doesn’t have the best top control or submission defense either. She was submitted quickly by armbar vs Yanan Wu. Mueller has no submissions in her career. Mueller has shown poor cardio in the past, but in her last match she was fresh in round 3. She is improving & getting better for sure.

 

I think this is closer to a 50/50 fight. JJ has fought the better competition, but skill-wise I don’t see the gap being as wide as the betting line. I think Mueller can actually outpace JJ here and I think she could land the harder shots as well. I could also see her landing takedowns and stealing rounds that way.  I do think this will be a very close fight and could go either way, but I will take the dog in this one.

On DraftKings, Mueller is the only fighter I have any interest in here. At $8.9k, JJ is going to be priced out of my lineups no matter how many I make. She will need a finish to pay that price off and her ITD line is +505. In her 3 UFC wins she has scored 79, 65, and 53. Those scores aren’t going to win us any GPPs and she doesn’t have the volume to get more than 10x in a decision win. Meuller is in play in all formats for me but I like her more as a cash punt with her safe floor. I think a win could put her on the optimal if other underdogs don’t come through, but I don’t like her ceiling and I think we would be hoping for a 10x win. I see the winner from this fight scoring closer to the 60-65-point range though and that isn’t going to help us get to 1st in tournaments.

Winner –  Lauren Mueller via Split Decision

 

Marvin Vettori $9,500 vs Andrew Sanchez $6,700

Marvin Vettori

Age: 25

Height: 6’0

Weight: 185

Reach: 74”

Gym: Kings MMA

From: Italy

UFC Record: 3-2-1

Fight Matrix: 46

Last Fought: 3 Months

Last Five: 2-2-1

Current Streak: W1

Betting Odds: -280

 

Marvin Vettori has a bit of a grudge against Andrew Sanchez now. Sanchez has pulled out of two fights with him, but they have rescheduled it quickly. Vettori has said in interviews he wants to hurt him for that. Marvin Vettori returned from his USADA suspension & had a dominant victory over Cezar Ferreira. He will be looking to continue his climb towards the top 15 against Andrew Sanchez. Vettori is a southpaw, forward pressure striker. He is very durable, willing to take a shot to give one, and has good head movement. He is explosive & good at touching opponents with his jab to create combinations. He will double, triple up on the jab. He will use the jab to start straight punch flurries. He will close the distance with 5-10 punch combinations. In close range, he has nice hooks & uppercuts. He has good head movement & slips & rips in the pocket well. He is very good at returning after getting hit in the pocket. He is extremely durable & if opponents exchange he will usually be the winner of it.  Vettori doesn’t throw many kicks, but he has very dangerous head kicks. He isn’t overly technical with his striking, but he just doesn’t give opponents a chance to breath. He is constantly walking opponents down & making them go backwards. When he lands, he is coming forward with more than one & forcing them to be on the defensive. If they try to get in the clinch or on the inside, he will let his hands go & throw punches in bunches, always willing to trade. Very technical opponents who are able to time his entries as he crashes the distance may be able to finesse him. Israel Adesanya was able to hit Vettori with some well-timed counters as he tried to come forward & made him much more gun shy. Vettori also took some pretty heavy leg kicks against Cezar Ferreira. Vettori has enough power to keep opponents honest but not fight ending power. He is definitely a volume guy. Vettori has just two career KO/TKO’s. He has never been finished in his career.

Vettori is well-rounded & really showed off his grappling in his last match. Vettori has good single & double leg takedowns. He has good timing on the shots & catches kicks well. His cardio is top notch & when opponents stand up he is right back on them. In the clinch, he will attack with nice knees, short hooks & uppercuts. He has close range power. In top position, he has great control & will pass to dominant positions. He likes to throw some short elbows, hammerfists & looks to move to side control or full mount. He was able to control Israel Adesanya from side control for a couple minutes, and he mounted Cezar Ferreira. He has good back takes & will look to lock in rear naked chokes.  His takedown defense is very good. He has good balance & digs double underhooks well. He was able to defend the vaunted double leg of Ferreira, dig the underhooks & put his back against the cage. He has fought high-level BJJ fighters like Antonio Carlos Junior & held his own in the grappling. He will also counter takedown attempts with kimuras. If he is taken down, he is hard to hold down & will attack off his back. He will look for sweeps & submissions from inside his guard. Vettori has 8 submission victories. He hasn’t had a finish since his UFC debut where he got a guillotine. That is his lone UFC finish. Vettori has fought some high-level opponents and is quietly building a solid resume. This will be no different in the tough Andrew Sanchez. Vettori is going to have to implement his usual game, pace, pressure & combination punching. I think the wrestling & clinch ability of Vettori will be huge if he is to win the fight. When Sanchez tries to slow it down in the clinch, he needs to use combinations & then disengage, keep the pressure high & try to break Sanchez. Maybe try to put Sanchez on his back, but Sanchez does have 100% takedown defense in the UFC.

 

Andrew Sanchez

Age: 31

Height: 6’1

Weight: 185

Reach: 76”

Gym: TriStar MMA

From: Missouri

UFC Record: 4-2

Fight Matrix: 49

Last Fought: 5 Months

Last Five: 4-2

Current Streak: W2

Betting Odds: +240

 

Andrew Sanchez has looked better than ever recently. He changed his camp to TriStar MMA & has upped his fight IQ & cardio. He has won back to back fights & is 4-2 in the UFC overall. This is a crossroads fight for both fighters with the winner likely getting a top 15 matchup. I would say these fighters have pretty similar styles. Sanchez isn’t as high volume & is more grappling based, but both fighters like to box & impose their will with forward pressure. Sanchez was striking in a much different way than usual in his last fight which I feel he will try to use again here. Against Barriault, he was holding his hands low, bouncing on the outside with a wide stance & trying to counter with straight shots. He has good hand speed & solid feints. He has a nice, snappy jab and a good one-two. He will also use the jab to explode into multiple punch combinations but isn’t quite as fast or tight with the shots as Vettori is. I would say he definitely has more power & throws wider than Vettori does. Sanchez has a really nice uppercut. He will throw a nice uppercut, left hook combination. He has a nice left hook. In the past he has shown a lot of short range power. He showed that against Ryan Janes flooring him with some huge shots. He will throw a lot of kicks with both legs; inside, outside leg kicks, round & front kicks to the body & head with both legs. He will throw nice question mark kicks to the head. Sanchez used to go full clip for the finish & gas himself out. This new style sets up his takedowns better & also allows him to pot shot and control the pace. Sanchez still hits hard with 7 career knockouts. His chin is questionable with 3 KO/TKO losses.

Sanchez has gone back to his roots in his last two fights. He has used a lot of cage grinding & wrestling to get the job done. He has good clinch control & will attack with knees to the body & head. He can leave too much space & be hittable in the clinch himself. I feel Vettori is going to try to take advantage of that & throw a lot of volume in the dirty boxing range. Sanchez needs to have the cardio to keep the pace.  He showed off a nice single leg in his last fight. When he takes opponents down, he does a good job of grape vining the legs and trapping the far wrist. When opponents have their backs against the cage he will try to slowly move into full mount. His top control is pretty impressive & in top position I do think he could give Vettori some problems. Sanchez’s last two opponents haven’t had the same wrestling level of Vettori & it’s going to be interesting to see if he can get him down. The wrestling & cage control has been key in his last two victories, not only because he won the positions, but he got to rest a little bit & control the pace. I definitely feel he will have to do that again in this fight to win.  We haven’t seen anything from Sanchez off his back in the UFC. He has 100% takedown defense. Sanchez does have a good pedigree in Jiu-Jitsu but has just two submissions in MMA. He hasn’t gotten a submission since 2012. In this fight, Sanchez is going to need to be better than ever with his countering & distance control. He has to make Vettori pay as he tries to enter range and make him respect him. He needs to try and slow the pace of Vettori, and then see who the superior grappler is. If Sanchez is able to get the single leg, or control Vettori against the cage, that will go a long way to him winning. He can’t brawl with Vettori and has to fight with a game plan.

 

Vettori is the better, overall striker and is more dangerous on the feet as well. Sanchez is a high-paced fighter though and I think he is the better wrestler here as well. I think Sanchez is a live dog here if he can strike at the higher pace and mix in his takedowns. I don’t see Vettori getting takedowns here, but I think he will be the one landing the harder shots. If Sanchez can make this a dirty fight and do a lot of cage work and/or land takedowns, then I think he can steal this fight. Vettori is the rightful favorite here but this is a dog or pass fight for me.

I like both sides of this fight but more so for GPPs. Sanchez is my preferred play because I think he can win this fight and he is super cheap. I think he pays off his price with any win and he has the wrestling ability to score 80+ too. I don’t like his floor for cash games though, so I don’t think I would want to punt with him there, but he is very in play for GPPs. I also think Vettori has a shot at an early finish as well so that puts him in play for me too. However, his ITD line is +248 and that is not what I like to see for his price tag. If I am making 10 lineups I would think Sanchez makes 3-4 and Vettori 1-2. Neither are must plays but I think they both have paths to the optimal lineup.

Winner – Andrew Sanchez via Split Decision

 

Miguel Baeza $9,400 vs Hector Aldana $6,800

Miguel Baeza

Age: 27

Height: 6’2

Weight: 170

Reach: 74.5”

Gym: MMA Masters

From: Florida

UFC Record: 0-0

Fight Matrix: 308

Last Fought: 4 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W7

Betting Odds: -210

 

Miguel Baeza is getting his UFC debut after a successful outing on the DWCS. Baeza is a very tall WW at 6’2. In this match he will have 5” reach advantage. Baeza is undefeated at 7-0 & the favorite in this matchup. Baeza is a great athlete. On the feet, he is dangerous but green. Baeza likes to stay on the outside & use long attacks. He doesn’t throw many jabs, but he will throw some occasional one-twos. With the hands he really likes to throw the straight-right. He can close a lot of distance with it & has big power when it lands. Baeza will also turn the straight into a nice, tight right hook, which he used to drop Victor Reyna. Baeza can get very wide & wild at times. In a fight in Titan FC, he landed an overhand right he winded up from hell that knocked his opponent out. Baeza doesn’t put combos together much, but inside he will flurry with fast hands. Baeza has nice front kicks to the body & head. He has a tricky head kick. In his fight with Victor Reyna, you could tell he still isn’t the best with his footwork. He would get static at times & allow Reyna to back him up towards the cage. Reyna was able expose his chin at times, while holding his hands low. Baeza does have solid head movement but ate some heavy combinations. His boxing defense definitely needs some work. He dropped Reyna in both rounds one & two but got tired in the third. In this fight though if he stays long range he should have success on the feet. He has to be ready to check leg kicks, because I think he is a bit vulnerable to them. Baeza should be the faster guy & hits hard so if he can counter the kicks that could be good as well. Baeza has 4 KO/TKO’s in 7 wins.

Miguel Baeza is a good grappler. He is a Jiu-Jitsu black belt, but there isn’t a ton of footage of him on tape grappling in MMA. I have seen Baeza hit some nice double leg takedowns. Baeza landed some nice ground & pound inside his opponent’s guard in his last match. He was throwing some elbows & shots over the top, along with some tricky uppercuts.  Baeza is a quick back tacker. He will trap a wrist when he is on top in his guard, land shots, force opponents to turtle & take their backs. He was able to do that after dropping Victor Reyna & locked in a deep rear naked choke. Reyna was able to survive & scramble back to his feet. Reyna took him down with a body lock against the cage also. He went for an anaconda choke late in the fight but has no career submissions.

 

Hector Aldana

Age: 31

Height: 5’9

Weight: 170

Reach: 72.5”

Gym: Entram Gym

From: Mexico

UFC Record: 0–2

Fight Matrix: NR

Last Fought: 11 Months

Last Five: 2-3

Current Streak: L3

Betting Odds: +175

 

Hector Aldana has his back against the wall here. Aldana has lost 3 consecutive fights if you include TUF & hasn’t earned a victory since 2015. Aldana has beaten nothing but low-level fighters in his career. Aldana is a prototypical Mexican fighter. He is a boxer who stays in his opponent’s face, keeps the pace and goes to war. He has big power and will throw a nice, crisp jab followed by a straight and/or good hook. He throws in combination well and changes up his target from body to the head. He will attack the body with hooks too and has good accuracy with big power. He has very heavy leg kicks and can damage fighter’s legs with just a few kicks. He has good head movement and does a good job of getting his head off center line after he throws combinations. Aldana can get too overaggressive and put himself in bad positions or throw himself off balance. Aldana also doesn’t have good footwork and cuts the cage off poorly. Due to this he relies on opponents standing in front of him. He is good at blocking, returning & trading in the pocket, but if fighters hit & move, he struggles. This is how Laureano Staropoli was able to out strike him. If you trade with Aldana, he does have good power. He has 2 KO/TKO’s, and has shown a decent chin over his career, only being finished once via TKO.

Hector Aldana is a one-dimensional fighter. He doesn’t have good takedown defense or Jiu-Jitsu and that will be an issue if he continues to fight in the UFC, but I don’t think it will be a problem in this fight. In the clinch, he can be controlled and pushed against the cage. Off his back, he seems lost, and he doesn’t have good get-ups or an active bottom game. He got choked out very quickly against Enrique Marin. Aldana has one submission and been submitted one time. He won’t go for many takedowns himself and doesn’t have much of a top game to speak of. He did catch kicks and get a couple trip takedowns in his fight with Kenan Song, but he let him up instead of staying in top position. Aldana has good cardio, fighting out of Mexico where the altitude is very high. He has been submitted once via rear naked choke.

 

I wouldn’t feel confident betting on either of these guys at this line, but I do think Baeza is the better striker and I see this fight mainly playing out on the feet. I think Aldana should look to wrestle here and that would be his path to victory. I will take the better striker though and pick Baeza to get the better of Aldana on the feet and winning on the scorecards.

This isn’t a fight I am looking to target too heavily. Baeza is priced highly enough where we probably need a finish from him and I am not sure he gets that. He does have a +140 ITD line which is solid, but I have been getting burned on these higher priced debut fighters lately and that is making me more cautious here. Aldana is in play here because he is cheap and any win from him could do the job here. I just think this is a fight where both sides are in play for GPPs, but I don’t see it being one that I target a lot. Maybe 1 of each with 10 lineups, I would be more interested in this fight if I was playing 20+ lineups though. For cash games, I think it is Aldana or pass but I prefer Meuller.

Winner – Miguel Baeza via Unanimous Decision

 

Marlon Vera $9,100 vs Andre Ewell $7,100

Marlon Vera

Age: 26

Height: 5’8

Weight: 135

Reach: 70.5”

Gym: Team Oyama

From: Ecuador

UFC Record: 8-4

Fight Matrix: 25

Last Fought: 3 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W4

Betting Odds: -170

 

Marlon Vera has been on a roll. He has finished four consecutive fights within the first two rounds. Vera is a solid striker. He will switch stances & throws a lot of kicks. He throws hard, low leg kicks. He has a good jab, straight-left hand from southpaw. He throws hard round & front kicks to the body from southpaw. He will also throw sidekicks to the body & hard round kicks to the head. He will throw oblique kicks to the knees with both legs. He likes to throw jab, left hooks from orthodox, and will throw a lot of lead left hooks & uppercuts. He will throw a jab, right hook to a body kick combination. His straight-left hand is accurate and has pop. He is usually a slow starter but comes into round 2 reinvigorated. He seems to have a new kill or be killed mindset and is super aggressive. He will start to walk down opponents heavy, really put on the volume and welcome a war. He will throw a lot of push kicks to try to get his opponents moving backwards & will attack with flying knees when they’re near the cage. He finished Wuliji Buren with a nasty left hook to the body after he pressured him backwards. In his last match, he landed a nasty knee that led to the finish. Vera will walk down opponents with a high guard, but he doesn’t move his head much. He stands tall & it makes him more hittable. He is very durable and will not be broken. He has 4 KO/TKO’s in his career and has never been finished.

Marlon Vera is a strong grappler and very dangerous. He likes to get the Thai clinch & land hard knees to the head. He will also throw hard hooks to the body & head from the single collar. He is good at disengaging the clinch with combinations especially against the cage. That is how he finished Buren. He landed a brutal combination of knees to the head of Guido Cannetti against the cage that dropped him. He is awesome at throwing combinations against the cage with bad intentions and then going to the grappling. He hurt Cannetti bad against the cage and attacked with a guillotine which was unsuccessful. He hurt Cannetti again against the cage a second time, getting a trip takedown, taking the back and getting the RNC. Vera doesn’t have the greatest takedown defense, but he is very tricky off his back. He has gotten an armbar against Brian Kelleher off his back. He will attack with nice elbows and has good get-ups also. He is improving & gaining confidence every time out. He has 7 submission victories & his last 4 victories are via finish. He has great cardio & gets better as the fight goes on.

 

Andre Ewell

Age: 31

Height: 5’11

Weight: 135

Reach: 75”

Gym: Apex

From: California

UFC Record: 2-1

Fight Matrix: 50

Last Fought: 3 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W1

Betting Odds: +150

 

Andre Ewell has started his UFC career 2-1. He is coming off a fun back & forth fight with Anderson Dos Santos where he took a unanimous decision. Andre Ewell is very fast & long. Ewell is very explosive & powerful with good distance control. He has a nice jab & left hook, and a nasty straight-right hand. He will throw a powerful one-two combination. Ewell’s whole game is really predicated on countering. He will use his lead hand jab or left to touch his opponents, and he wants them to commit so he can pull counter with the right hand. Ewell is very good at landing shots off the back foot. He will plant & spring into straight overhand & hooks with the right. He is willing to trade & has very fast hand speed. In his last match he was landing a lot of wide hook combinations. Ewell will throw occasional leg kicks & some snap kicks up the middle. Ewell also will use some round kicks to the head. In the past, he threw it way more & was taken down off it vs Nathaniel Wood. In his last match vs Anderson Dos Santos, he used primarily his hands. Ewell can leave his chin high & fighters who can slip & come over the top with overhands & hooks can hurt him. Nathaniel Wood was able to drop him & keep him on the back foot that way.

Andre Ewell is not a good grappler. He has a deficiency with takedown defense & off his back. Ewell doesn’t defend takedown shots very well. He also can be taken down in the clinch fairly easily. His distance control isn’t bad, and he did defend a few double legs against the cage in his last fight. He did get taken down with a single leg in the second round. Ewell was also able to stand up in round two & three by exploding out of the mount. He still showed some major short comings on the ground though. He was taken down with a double leg in the 3rd round & couldn’t get back to his feet. Ewell is long & does a decent job of initially using his guard to try to scramble, but he’s very green. He doesn’t have enough urgency to get-up & allows opponents to pass to dominant positions by exploding at the wrong times. When he fought Nathaniel Wood he gave his back in a scramble & was submitted with a rear naked choke. Andre Ewell does have decent front chokes. He will attack with guillotines & darces to defend takedowns. Ewell has to know his grappling isn’t good and needs improvement. If he is taken down in this fight, he is in trouble because he’s facing a finisher on the mat in Chito. Ewell has been submitted 3 times. He does have four submissions. I would say Ewell showed some improvement with his fight IQ in his last match, but his opponent didn’t look to grapple as much as he should have.

 

On the feet, this fight is close. I think Ewell is live dog here if he can keep it standing, but I do think he is in trouble if it hits the mat. Vera only lands 0.84 takedowns per 15-minutes so there is a chance this stays standing and if I knew that was the case I would take Ewell at this line. I do think Vera looks for takedowns here though and I think he will get a submission if he does.

FDGTD is -150 here and Vera ITD is -105. That is making me want to play some Vera here, but his price is pretty high. He won’t be a core play for me this week, but I do like his advantage on the ground and he could score 100+ here with a finish. I don’t hate Ewell’s price tag either and even a decision win could pay that off if he can keep this fight standing. I prefer Vera here but both sides are in play. This is another fight I would say is GPP only, but Vera is fine for cash games because I do think he has a solid floor here, but we need a win, so you need to be more confident in him than whoever you are debating on switching him with.

Winner – Marlon Vera via 2nd round Submission

 

Deiveson Figueiredo $9,300 vs Tim Elliott $6,900

Deiveson Figueiredo

Age: 31

Height: 5’5

Weight: 125

Reach: 68”

Gym: Marajo Brothers

From: Brazil

UFC Record: 5-1

Fight Matrix: 3

Last Fought: 3 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W1

Betting Odds: -190

 

Deiveson Figueiredo had arguably the best performance of his career in his last match. He had a war with Alexandre Pantoja but was largely one step ahead the whole night. With a win, Figueiredo will likely be looking at a title shot. Figueiredo is probably the biggest FW on the roster with the most one punch knockout power. On the feet, Figueiredo is basic but has one punch knockout power, and is a big presence. He cuts the cage off well, will switch stances, and almost always controls the center of the cage. He likes to stand in front of opponents, feint & touch opponents to pull counter. He uses a wide, hands down stance & is very athletic & explosive. Figueiredo has a very nice jab. He will skip into range with one-twos and has heavy low kicks. He has a powerful straight & overhand right. Figueiredo likes to kind of shuffle into range & then explode into a left or right hook or an overhand. He will attack the body with straights & hooks that have big power. The issue in Figueiredo’s striking is he loads up a lot, and if opponents are smart, use movement & don’t engage in fire fights with him he isn’t the fastest. Due to the fact he doesn’t throw in combination, he can be low volume and not land much if fighters can avoid the big shots. Figueiredo will also get frustrated & start lunging in & using big movements when he can get inside. This makes it easier to time takedowns, along with catch him with counter shots. In his last match he was definitely more composed, but his opponent was willing to engage with Figueiredo much more than I see Elliott doing. Figueiredo definitely packs a punch with 8 KO/TKO’s. He has never been finished by strikes.

Deiveson Figueiredo has struggled with grapplers over his career. He got a victory by the skin of his teeth vs Jarred Brooks where he was taken down many times. In his loss to Jussie Formiga, Formiga was able to take him down to cement rounds. Figueiredo just doesn’t have the greatest takedown defense or get-up game. He was dumped with double legs vs Brooks and taken down with singles & body locks vs Formiga which is Elliott’s specialty. Off his back Figueiredo doesn’t do much. He will try to play the guard game, control posture, and does land elbows & punches off his back. He did cut Formiga with an elbow on bottom. He will eventually look to get the feet on the hips & push off, but he can be much too complacent off his back. In his fights with both Formiga & Brooks, they had over a full round of top control. Deiveson does have a dangerous guillotine, but he doesn’t use it to sweep and if opponents escape he is on his back. In full guard, he doesn’t really throw up very many submissions and isn’t super dangerous other than the guillotine. Offensively Figueiredo isn’t a bad wrestler. He is very big for the division and gets in on double underhooks nicely, using the position to land trip takedowns. He landed a nice blast double in his fight vs Pantoja. He wasn’t able to control in top position very long before Pantoja scrambled back to his feet. I don’t see him being able to control Elliott in top position. In this fight, I think Figueiredo has to stay composed. He has to just try to cut Elliott off, not get frustrated by the movement & catch him as he’s coming in. He needs to use his straight-right hand & uppercut, and maybe even look for flying knees. If he gets taken down, work back to his feet as quickly as possible. Figueiredo has 5 submissions & has never been submitted.

 

Tim Elliott

Age: 32

Height: 5’7

Weight: 125

Reach: 67”

Gym: Glory MMA & Fitness

From: Missouri

UFC Record: 4-6

Fight Matrix: NR

Last Fought: 1 Year 10 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: W1

Betting Odds: +165

 

Tim Elliott is making his return after a long layoff. He hasn’t fought since December of 2017 and is coming up on two years out of the cage. Elliott had a terrible knee injury, blowing out almost all the ligaments in his knee. Due to the severity of the injury, I’m not sure how much Elliott has been able to improve over this layoff. I heard an interview with Elliott where he said he was offered a fight in July but could not accept it because he was still recovering. Hopefully he is ready to go & 100 percent come fight time.  Elliott is a former title challenger, and had an anaconda choke finish his last time out. Tim Elliott is a grinding wrestler & a tough matchup historically for Figueiredo. It’s tough to describe how Elliott strikes on the feet. It looks like he has no rhyme or reason for some of the things he does. His coach James Krause, maybe gave the best description when he said he has anti-timing on the feet. Elliott is herky jerky, constantly moving, switching stances & sometimes just doing weird stuff with his footwork. He will do like an Ali shuffle into a blitz combination, or takedown attempt. Elliott will throw a lot of range finding low kicks as well as oblique kicks. He will throw jabs occasionally. Elliott uses his odd movement to create openings for blitz attacks. He will close the distance with straight or hook, punch combinations along with front kicks to the body and head. Inside Elliott will let his hands go and has good dirty boxing. He will back opponents to the fence with the blitzes, get in the clinch & dig big body shots and stay busy.  Elliott has good head & lateral movement to avoid strikes. Elliott doesn’t get hit a lot in fights & has a knack for forcing fighters to fight his style of fight. Elliot has been finished by strikes just one time in his third pro fight. Elliott has 3 KO/TKO’s but isn’t a big knockout threat.

Tim Elliott has an extremely fan friendly grappling style. Elliott is an extremely active seeker of the takedown and takes down basically everyone he fights. Elliott has a sick single & double leg. He is excellent at using his combinations to create opportunities to duck under into shots. In top position, Elliott is constantly moving. There will never be a stagnant position with Tim Elliott, it is scramble city. Elliott on top is always looking to pass. He likes to get to side control, work for the crucifix position, along with looking for arm triangles. Elliott will force opponents to give to give their backs and is excellent at locking in no hook rear naked chokes and catching guillotines when they do. Elliott will use the guillotine to snap opponents down & take mount. In Elliott’s aggressiveness, he does put himself in some bad positions. Elliott gets his head caught in guillotine positions a lot. Louis Smolka was able to use the guillotine to sweep to mount & do some damage. On bottom Elliott is fantastic. He has a sick butterfly guard, and just is excellent in scrambles. Even when he gets mounted, or his back taken, he will stay calm until he can create an opportunity to get a two on one or give his back & reverse. Elliott is excellent at bellying down into single legs and reversing position as well. Elliott is constantly moving, and it demoralizes opponents. Elliott is taking fighters down at will, and then when they get a dominant position on him, he will quickly scramble back to top position, which breaks some opponents. Elliott weaponizes cardio especially early on in fights. He doesn’t pace himself whatsoever & comes out like a bat out of hell. In his first round with Demetrius Johnson, he took him down, locked in a nice guillotine & darce & out struck him. As the fight went on Johnson started using Elliott’s weird movements & kicks on the feet against him, taking him down & controlling him on the mat. When Johnson started getting top position, he was able to stay on top of Elliott, but not do much damage. Most fighters don’t have the technique to keep a fighter like Elliott on his back. Elliott did attempt a head & arm throw in a fight vs Ben Nguyen, and Nguyen was able to take the back & choke him out in less than a minute. Elliott is very dangerous with submissions himself always hunting the neck. He earned an anaconda choke win in his last match. Elliott has 8 submissions and has been submitted 3 times. Historically throughout Elliott’s career he has struggled with wrestlers more than strikers. This is a decent matchup for Elliott to jump right back on the scene.

 

This is a good fight and I think it is closer than the odds indicate. This is a card where I think a lot of fights are dog or pass and this is another one. I think Figueiredo is the better striker, has more power, and is maybe even the better wrestler. However, Elliott is a tricky fighter who sets a higher pace and he will constantly look to mix in takedowns with his unorthodox striking. I think he can outpace Figueiredo on the feet and if he can land takedowns of his own I think he could steal rounds that way. I am leaning with Figueiredo to get the win from landing the harder shots on the feet and maybe getting takedowns of his own, but I am not sure how this one plays out and it is dog or pass on the betting line.

On DraftKings, Elliott is my preferred play here because of the ceiling we have seen from him. He had a ridiculous 175 DK points in 3 rounds against Smolka so just the ability to get there I love at this $6.9k salary. I like him in all formats here and I think he easily pays that salary off in any win. I don’t see him being able to get anywhere near 175 here, but he could get close to 100 and that would put him on the nuts. I do think he loses though so I won’t go overboard, but this is a very nice price tag that allows us to pay up for big favorites we like. Fig is in play for GPPs, but I don’t think I will target him much. With 10 lineups I would say 0-1 for him and it would be more of a hedge to Elliott lineups in case he got an early KO. He doesn’t have the volume with his striking to score highly in a decision, but Elliott could force more volume here and he could get takedown and advance points of his own.

Winner – Deiveson Figueiredo via Split Decision

 

Max Griffin $8,200 vs Alex Morono $8,000

Max Griffin

Age: 33

Height: 6’0

Weight: 170

Reach: 76”

Gym: MMA Gold Fight Team

From: California

UFC Record: 3-4

Fight Matrix: 58

Last Fought: 6 Months

Last Five: 2-3

Current Streak: W1

Betting Odds: -155

 

Max Griffin bounced back from two consecutive losses with a win in a grudge match over Zelim Imadaev. Griffin will be looking for his first two fight win streak in his UFC career. He has excellent lateral movement & very fast hand speed. He will throw the jab to the body and head. He has very fast one-twos. His straight-right hand is super-fast & he has big power on it. He dropped Mike Perry with a straight-right hand, left hook combination. He will meet opponents in the middle with straight punching combinations to stop their forward movement. He will also close the distance with straight punches or hooks in combination and try to finish opponents against the cage. He is very good at darting in with a straight shot & then getting out of range. He has very fast hand speed. He will throw hard inside, outside leg kicks & the occasional head kick. He has a very nice step-in knee to the body. He is extremely durable. His chin is granite. He took some huge shots against Thiago Alves, Mike Perry, and especially Curtis Millender & Zaleski Dos Santos. If fighters can cut him off, they can sometimes land wide hooks or overhands as he tries to exit. Griffin starts fights very sharp, powerful and technical, but time goes on he gasses hard. His movements become much more labored, and his punches & kicks come very slow. Griffin is much more dangerous in round one with 5 of his 7 knockouts being in round one. He becomes very hittable. He has only been TKO’d one time from being unable to get out of a position on the ground against Colby Covington.

Max Griffin has really improved as a grappler, winning his last fight via wrestling. Griffin did a great job of digging underhooks & landing trip or body lock takedowns. Griffin is also good at using the underhooks to drive opponents to the cage & chain wrestle. He will drop down into doubles & singles and has good control there. Griffin will throw an overhand right directly into a single leg or body lock takedown. On top, Griffin will get into half guard & land short elbows to the body & head. He will get a tight waist from side control & use it to control & ride opponents out. Griffin is good at turking the legs and transitioning quickly. He will force opponents to give their backs, where he has good back control. He will look for the rear naked choke, but cares more about controlling the position than finding the finish. Griffin has gotten better with his top control and was able to earn a victory mostly via top control in his last match. Alex Morono has struggled with being put on his back in the UFC, and it would be a smart game plan to try to take him down. Griffin has 8 takedowns in his last two fights and has been taken down 0 times. Griffin was put on his back & dominated by Colby Covington but hasn’t really been on his back much since that contest. Griffin has just two submissions & has been submitted one time.

 

Alex Morono

Age: 29

Height: 5’11

Weight: 170

Reach:  72”

Gym: Fortis MMA

From: Texas

UFC Record: 5-2-1

Fight Matrix: 61

Last Fought: 7 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: W2

Betting Odds: +135

 

Alex Morono had an excellent performance in his last fight. He finished Zak Ottow in the first round and has won 3 of his last 4 matches. Morono has transitioned his camp to Fortis MMA & with better training partners & coaches, he should be maximizing his potential. Morono is a very cerebral fighter, and I see him taking in & implementing the knowledge given to him. Morono has decent lateral movement & is light on his feet. He has a decent jab & left hook. He will throw a right hook lead. He likes to throw a jab, overhand right combination. Morono will throw looping overhand rights & jab, overhand rights. He has a solid head kick and a good spinning heel kick. He will throw nice front kicks to the body. He can get lazy throwing kicks sometimes and leave his chin in the air. He stands up very tall and is there to be leg kicked and taken down. He doesn’t throw in combination a lot, especially with his hands. He will try to dart in with one overhand right or throw a jab or spinning backfist, but he doesn’t put long combos together. His footwork, ability to cut guys off, keep a pace and a high volume of strikes on is probably his greatest strength. He wears guys down and can start to take over late. In this fight that’s exactly what he needs to do. He is not very technical & gets very wild. He will wing wide hooks & overhands in the pocket & tends to duck his head and swing & pray. He really lacks composure & doesn’t fight technical at all. Even in his last fight I really don’t think he showed much improvements in that aspect. He hasn’t shown major power over his career & has 4 KO/TKO’s. He has a decent chin but has been KO/TKO’d twice in his career.

Alex Morono is a Jiu-Jitsu black belt & showed off some of his skills in his last match. Morono was taken down with a double leg but was able to lock in a guillotine use it to reverse to mount & finish on top. Morono also locked in a nice guillotine vs Josh Burkman. Morono is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu, but he is not much of an offensive grappler. He did jump on a guillotine against Josh Burkman, but that was an old, weathered Burkman. Morono is not a wrestler & will rarely go for offensive takedowns. He did attempt a double leg in his fight against Kenan song, but has 0 UFC takedowns. His takedown defense is not good at all and he can be taken down very easily. He will wing shots wildly & opponents can easily duck under & take him down. He was taken down over & over by Jordan Mein and didn’t show much off his back. He has good guard retention & is hard to pass, but not dangerous. He will try to throw up armbars & triangles, but he isn’t fast with them. He does have a couple over his career.  He doesn’t have good get-ups & he can be stuck on his back. He went to Fortis MMA after the Mein fight which is an excellent wrestling gym, I’m sure in part to close that hole. He seems like a fighter who doesn’t like to wrestle & I definitely think it’s still something fighters will be able to exploit going forward in his career. He has 6 career submissions. He has never been submitted in his career. Morono needs to keep this fight on the feet. He needs to be a little bit more composed, use in & out movement and try to land some big shots on Griffin. We have seen Morono show some nice counter striking vs Niko Price. If Morono can keep this fight on the feet & get Griffin tired by backing him up, he could take over as the fight goes on.

 

I think Griffin is the better overall striker and has more power as well. I am not confident in him getting a finish though and this could be a close fight pace-wise and I expect it to go all 3-rounds, so it could be a close decision because of that. I do think Griffin lands the harder shots though and is more likely to land takedowns as well which could steal close rounds. I think this fight does go to the scorecards, but I like Griffin to get his hand raised.

Griffin is my preferred play here on DraftKings, but I don’t love the ceiling of either of these guys. They are priced nicely to where we don’t need 100+ but there are people around this range with higher ceilings that I will probably click on more. I do like Griffin enough to take a side here and fade Morono to get the extra leverage on Griffin. I just think he would be a 20-30% guy and he likely gets close to 10x in a win. I think he is in play for cash games and I think we are getting a bit of a discount at this price. Either guy could get a finish here, but I see this one going all 3 and the winner scoring 70-75.

Winner – Max Griffin via Unanimous Decision

 

Ryan Spann $8,800 vs Devin Clark $7,400

Ryan Spann

Age: 28

Height: 6’5

Weight: 205

Reach: 81.5”

Gym: Fortis MMA

From: Texas

UFC Record: 2-0

Fight Matrix: 14

Last Fought: 5 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W6

Betting Odds: -145

 

Ryan Spann will be looking to build off his knockout of Antonio Rogerio Nogueira & run his UFC record to 3-0. Spann is another Fortis MMA product. Spann is a very athletic and long fighter. He has an 81.5” reach & uses it. Spann is very good at controlling distance with jabs & straights. Spann has an excellent jab. He throws it stiff & can stun opponents with it. He will also double jab into range for his straight or right hook. He starts very fast and goes on the offensive from the start. He has a nice check hook. He has decent leg kicks and can throw some nice body kicks. He has good movement for a fighter his size, but he tends to not use it all the time. He is flat footed and can show some bad, tall man defense in his fights like leaning back to try to avoid shots. He doesn’t throw much of anything besides jabs & one, one-twos, and can be very obvious. He can get tagged with well-timed overhands. He has a questionable chin and has gotten rocked many times in his fights. He has gotten knocked out twice. Spann is coming off a nasty knockout of Nogueira & has 4 knockouts in his career.

Ryan Spann is not the best grappler & is definitely going to be looking to keep this fight standing. I don’t think Spann has the best takedown defense. He isn’t bad at controlling distance, but if opponents can get in on his legs his defense isn’t the best. He will look to counter with guillotines and has decently fast hips.  He will jump on guillotines, and he does a good job of using them to roll into mount or snap opponents down. He was able to get a front choke finish in less than 40 seconds on the DWCS. If fighters get in on his legs or in the clinch, he doesn’t do a good job of defending. He has his feet too close together making it easy to get double legs. Spann can be taken down with single legs as well. Spann will also let opponents in deep on body locks but has good balance. He is much harder to takedown in the clinch and will use his height to reverse to top position. Spann was able to do this to Luis Henríque, but couldn’t control on top. Off his back, Ryan Spann is not very good. He will throw up some triangles, and armbars, but they aren’t fast, and he doesn’t have good get-ups. Spann is decent at sweeping to top position, but that is usually from his opponents making a mistake. Ryan Spann is a decent offensive wrestler. He will look for singles & doubles. He can get very desperate for takedowns and go in very sloppy with his entries when he gets rocked or tired. He leaves his head exposed to be hit with elbows and punches when he goes for single or double legs. He got knocked out by Karl Roberson, and really hurt badly by Alex Nicholson in the same position. He has solid ground & pound and fairly decent top control. He does a good job of taking the back quickly where he will lock in the body lock and is good at sinking in rear naked chokes. He has ten submissions. In this fight, I would try to keep it standing unless there is a gimme takedown. Spann has been submitted just one time. Spann has good cardio.

 

Devin Clark

Age: 29

Height: 6’0

Weight: 205

Reach: 75”

Gym: Jackson Wink MMA

From: South Dakota

UFC Record: 4-3

Fight Matrix: 52

Last Fought: 4 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: W1

Betting Odds: +125

 

Devin Clark bounced back from his loss to Aleksandar Rakic with a decision victory over Darko Stosic. Clark was the underdog for that fight & once again the underdog in this matchup. Clark is a main training partner of Jon Jones & an athletic wrestler. He is light on his feet & explosive. In round one, Clark is dangerous having dropped his last two opponents. He has solid inside, outside leg kicks. He dropped Darko Stosic with a jab. He will throw good one-twos and has a nice straight & overhand right lead. He will close the distance with hook or straight punch combinations. He has a very nice leaping left hook, he dropped Rakic with. He will throw front & hook kicks to the body & head. He will throw superman punches and likes to throw backfists into an explosive combination to close the distance. When fighters pressure him he will use spinning backfists to counter. That can get him knockdowns like it did vs Stosic or get him in trouble & knocked out like vs Rakic. He holds his hands low, and sometimes can close the distance hands down with his chin in the air. Clark will also turn his back at times when he gets hit which you never like to see. Clark has gotten much more composed. He sticks & moves, uses more lateral movement, & his striking is all basically to set up his entries to get the fight to the ground. In Clark’s last match he was able to dominate round 3 by potshotting Stosic & staying on the outside. Clark does have big power & is explosive. He has 3 KO/TKO’s and has been finished by strikes twice.

Devin Clark is a junior college National Wrestling Champion, and I see him trying to get this fight to the mat. Clark has good control in the clinch. He will hold opponents against the cage, work knees & elbows, and works well off the breaks. He will throw combinations if an opponent can disengage & then re-clinch. He was able to gas out Stosic by doing this. Clark does a good job feinting his way inside & has a strong double leg. Clark will also close the distance with a straight or an uppercut directly into a takedown attempt. When he gets his hands connected, he takes his opponents down easily & can take them for a ride. He has strong body lock takedowns. Clark’s top control isn’t elite, but it’s not bad. He will trap a wrist from the guard & use it to try to turk the legs & move directly into mount or take the back. He does a good job of getting to the wrestling ride position & throwing down shots. He has the cardio to wrestle for 3 consecutive rounds and will re-shoot & re-dump opponents continuously. Clark has 15 takedowns in 7 UFC fights. He has been taken down only 2 times. Devin Clark isn’t a submission threat with just one in his career. He has been submitted one time by Jan Blachowicz.

 

This is a tough one to call. I think Spann is the better overall striker and he is also the better submission artist. Clark is going to have more power though and he will have the wrestling advantage. I think his chin is a worry here against Spann, but if he can land takedowns early in this fight I think that will help him win rounds and tire Spann out taking away from his power. I think Clark is more likely to get finished in this fight but if he can avoid the KO shot and not get caught in a guillotine then I think he gets his hand raised.

This is one of the better GPP fights on the card. We have a -205 FDGTD line and Spann himself is -110 ITD. I like him a lot at his salary and if he wins I think he does get a finish and it could be round 1. I like Clark for the upset though, so he is my preferred play. We would need him to get a lot of takedowns to have a high ceiling, but he is only $7.4k so he doesn’t need 100+ in a win. This is a fight I would be looking to get in half or more of my lineups and I would want exposure to both sides. I don’t think I will be looking here for cash games though.

Winner – Devin Clark via Unanimous Decision

 

Mike Davis $8,600 vs Thomas Gifford $7,600

Mike Davis

Age: 27

Height: 6’0

Weight: 145

Reach: 72.5”

Gym: Fusion Xcel Performance

From: Florida

UFC Record: 0-1

Fight Matrix: 445

Last Fought: 1 Month

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: L1

 

Mike Davis had an epic scrap with Sodiq Yusuff on the DWCS & is 7-2 overall. Davis is a good striker. He has a nice jab, and a good left hook, straight-right hand combination.  He likes to walk opponents down, use head movement & draw out counters. He will rip the body with jabs, straight punches & hooks. He has nice hook & uppercut combinations in close range. He has nice front & hook kicks to the body & head. He will attack with nice front knees to the body. He has fast hands & big power. I do feel he can be a little bit upright & hittable at times. He will also enter the pocket with his hands down. He was dropped & hurt multiple times by Sodiq Yusuff. He is also very heavy on his lead leg & I could see Gifford throwing a lot of leg kicks. Davis has 6 KO/TKO’s in 7 wins & has finished all 7 of his pro wins. His one loss he showed a strong chin & recoverability, getting hurt, not getting discouraged & coming back.

I don’t envision Davis looking to grapple much in this match. He isn’t a very active wrestler, but he has decent takedowns. He has good doubles and is strong in top position. He will attack with heavy elbows, and he finished his most recent fight with a nasty kimura. He has good timing on double legs & will get clinch trip takedowns. He usually will only go for takedowns when he starts to get touched up a little bit or his opponent get overaggressive. He looks to be a big, physical athlete at 145. Davis has just the one submission in his most recent fight & has only been submitted once by Burns. Davis is going to want to keep it on the feet & try to use his superior boxing to connect & hurt Gifford. He has big power in both hands, and if he lands clean on Gifford, he might go down.

 

Thomas Gifford

Age: 27

Height: 6’1

Weight: 155

Reach: 76”

Gym: Factory X

From: Arkansas

UFC Record: 0-1

Fight Matrix: 132

Last Fought: 6 Months

Last Five: 3-1-1

Current Streak: L1

 

This will be Thomas Gifford’s 2nd UFC fight and he had his original opponent pull out of the fight this week.  Gifford is light on his feet & pretty good in & out. He has a nice, snappy jab. He has a nice one-two. He will throw a left hook, straight-right hand combination. He likes to move his head off center line & throw a right hook or right straight. He has decent head movement & will attack the body with punches. He has heavy leg kicks. He will throw solid round & front kicks to the body. He is still very hittable himself, but he has a good chin & is willing to go to war. Gifford has 3 KO/TKO’s & decent power. He will drop & submit opponents. He has been knocked out 2 times in MMA & also been KO’d as a boxer multiple times.

Gifford is a bad wrestler. His takedown defense is not good & he gets taken down in almost all his fights. He will attack with a pretty slick guillotine, but if you can get him flat on his back, he doesn’t have much. He does have a decent triangle, but I feel against good grapplers, that will easily be defended. I think his grappling is a glaring weakness against UFC level competition. He is very tough & had a fight of the year candidate in his last match. He has 12 career submissions. He has finished all 14 of his wins & has been finished in 5 of his career losses. He is 0-3 in decisions. Gifford is going to try to use his boxing & then work submissions off his back. He should look for takedowns here or try to get the fight against the cage to not let Davis get comfortable at range and try to tire him out.

 

Davis is taking this fight on less than a weeks’ notice. The late notice worries me, but I do think he is the better fighter here and the much better striker. I also think he has the wrestling to keep this on the feet. Gifford is the more experienced fighter but even on late notice I think he needs a submission to get the win here. I see Davis keeping this fight on the feet and either getting a knockout or piecing Gifford up for 3 rounds. He could slow late though so the longer this fight goes the more it will favor Gifford.

Davis opened at -190 and has been bet up to -260. The only prop available right now is -140 FDGTD. I do think this fight likely ends early, especially with Davis taking it on such short notice. I think he will look for the early KO and if he can’t get it maybe he gets subbed late. Davis is my preferred play though and I think he is in play for that 1st round 100+ point KO. I like his price tag a good bit as well and if he had a full camp I would make him a core play. I am worried about the gas tank though so not sure if I will make him a core play here or not, but I will probably look to have 30% or so here. I am not too interested in Gifford with 10 or less lineups but with 20 or more he could be in play for 1-2.

Winner – Mike Davis via 1st round (T)KO

 

Niko Price $8,400 vs James Vick $7,800

Niko Price

Age: 30

Height: 6’0

Weight: 170

Reach: 76”

Gym: MMA Masters

From: Florida

UFC Record: 5-3-1

Fight Matrix: 71

Last Fought: 3 Months

Last Five: 3-3

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: -145

 

Niko Price is back to deliver the fans more violence. Price was on the wrong end of a TKO in his last match vs Geoff Neal. It was a back & forth fight where both fighters were dropped, but Neal prevailed. Price has gone to MMA Masters for this camp, which is a huge upgrade from his usual training situation. Niko Price is a very dangerous striker, but more opportunistic than anything. Price uses a lot of lateral movement, leg kicks & straight-right hands. He likes to be all the way out or all the way in. In this fight, he needs to use the leg kicks, but set them up better because Vick has been susceptible to them in his last two matches. He will hang around on the outside & wait for his opponents to commit, to meet them in the middle with counters or explode in with a shot. Price likes to come over the top with looping left & right hooks. He will throw a left-hand slap into a right hook or right straight. Price has nice round & front kicks to the body & head. Price can be a little awkward when he comes forward. He will hold his hands low & just doesn’t move the fastest coming forward. In almost every fight he gets tagged with huge shots as he comes forward. He almost accepts he’s going to get hit to give his own shots. In his fight with Tim Means, he was getting pieced up with straights & front kicks which is Vick’s game. Means got too over aggressive & one hook ended his night. That’s what makes Price so good. He just needs his opponents to make one mistake to close the show. When opponents actually commit to a combination & become stationary Price will explode with wild hook combinations & can close the distance very quickly. Price likes to grab the Muay Thai plum & finish combinations with knees. Niko Price is a kill or be killed fighter. None of his UFC fights have seen the final bell. Price has 9 KO/TKO’s & insane short-range power. He has only been KO/TKO’d twice in his career, but he has taken a lot of damage and with his style, he relies on his chin. He has been rocked or dropped in a lot of his UFC fights, Neal, Means, Alhasson, Brown, Luque, & Morono have all hurt him with shots. He has shown good recoverability, but eventually he will start getting flatlined.

Niko Price is not the greatest defensive wrestler. He has been taken down in many fights including his last two. Tim Means was able to slam him with a double leg, and Geoff Neal was able to take him down multiple times. Geoff Neal was able to get in on body locks, get suplexes and take the back. He eventually postured up & finished the match. Niko Price couldn’t get-up off his back & didn’t show good defensive technique. When he was taken down by Randy Brown, he was able to get a hammerfist knockout off his back, which was insane. Even off his back Price has the power to knock you out. Price can be a little sloppy with his entries, especially his double legs. He has good double legs when he times them correctly, but he can shoot them from too far out at times & I feel Vick may be able to reverse. He does a good job of using the singles & double to get his opponent against the cage, transitioning to a body lock & getting the takedown. He definitely is better at getting the takedowns in the clinch & against the cage. When he gets opponents down he likes to work quickly. He has strong G&P and will look for submissions. He has two submissions in the UFC. He will transition to the back mount & look for rear naked chokes. He also has an arm triangle victory over Brandon Thatch. Niko Price has 3 career submissions overall. Price has been submitted once by Vincente Luque, but it was after being dropped. Price has an undying will, and great cardio. He has a screw loose & never thinks he’s out of the fight. Almost all his UFC wins he was getting beat up before coming back to get the finish.

 

James Vick

Age: 32

Height: 6’3

Weight: 170 (Debut)

Reach: 76”

Gym: Fairtex Training Center

From: Texas

UFC Record: 9-4

Fight Matrix: 36 (LW)

Last Fought: 3 Months

Last Five: 2-3

Current Streak: L3

Betting Odds: +125

 

James Vick has his back against the wall here. Vick has lost 3 consecutive fights, 2 via knockout and is now moving up in weight to face a knockout artist. James Vick needs a victory here to avoid being cut. Vick has gone to Thailand for this camp and is taking it very seriously. Now at 170 lbs he has a chance to rebuild his career. Vick has good movement & throws nice, long shots. He has a good jab both to the head & body, and a nice straight-left hand. He will throw one-twos down the middle. He does a good job of doubling up on the jab. He will also feint the jab & throw the straight-left hand. He has a decent right hook. He knocked Joe Duffy out with a nasty uppercut as he closed the distance. He will throw nice inside, outside leg kicks along with front kicks to the body & head. He has a really nice left kick to the body. He will throw sidekicks to the body & head as well. He has nice spinning back kicks to the body & head. He will throw nice step-in knees to the body & head. He has strong flying knees as well. When he throws the knees, he leaves his chin straight up in the air & can get countered. He has good lateral movement and distance control. He will slide back & land straight-lefts, and his counters are usually the shots that hurt opponents. He can back himself up to the cage too much & he has a tendency to stand very tall after he gets hit. Justin Gaethje was able to exploit that, land a huge overhand right and knocked him out cold. Dan Hooker was able to land a nasty left hook that turned his lights out in his last match. It was a devastating knockout, and you have to question Vick’s chin at this point. He also stands heavy on his lead leg & Paul Felder was able to exploit that. He throws a heavy volume of strikes & has a great style to win decisions. He has 4 KO/TKO’s in his career. He has been KO/TKO’d 4 times.

James Vick is a good grappler. He has good takedown defense, and if opponents do take him down he is dangerous with his Jiu-Jitsu. He has excellent chokes; guillotines, darces and anacondas, and his long limbs let him lock in chokes easier. He is strong in the clinch landing nice knees & elbows. He is hard to takedown there as well because of his height. He uses the chokes to reverse into top position. In this fight, I actually see him as the superior grappler. Vick is more of a defensive grappler. He doesn’t shoot takedowns or work in the clinch much. He has 5 career submissions & never been submitted in his career. Vick has great cardio & always comes ready to go in terms of shape. Vick has his back against the wall here & knows this is a make or break fight for him.

 

Vick is making his 170 lb debut here after losing his last three fights at 155, with two of those being from knockout. He is facing a heavy-handed fighter here too and I don’t think this is a great matchup for him because of his possible fading chin. I think Vick is the better overall fighter and not cutting the extra 15 lbs could help his chin here as well. I just think this fight will be a striking match and I think Price will land a heavy bomb at some point and get a KO. If he doesn’t get the KO, then I think there is a decent chance Vick pulls off the upset.

On DraftKings, Price is my preferred play here. The betting line and DK prices are fairly close here but Price ITD is -125 and Vick ITD is +250, which makes me like Price a decent amount here. I don’t think Vick will be a guy I look too much at $7.8k because I would rather pay less for a few other fighters and I am not sure how high his ceiling is here. Both are definitely in play, but I will probably fade Vick with 10 or less lineups and Price would possibly be a core GPP play here because if he wins it is likely from a KO.

Winner – Niko Price via 2nd round (T)KO

 

Eryk Anders $8,500 vs Gerald Meerschaert $7,700

Eryk Anders

Age: 32

Height: 6’1

Weight: 185

Reach: 75”

Gym: Fortis MMA

From: Alabama

UFC Record: 4-4

Fight Matrix: 34

Last Fought: 4 Months

Last Five: 2-3

Current Streak: W1

Betting Odds: -155

 

Eryk Anders is returning to 185 lbs after a 1-1 UFC record at LHW. He bounced back from the beating against Khalil Rountree to knockout Vinicius Moreira in the first round. Anders is a pressure fighter. He does a good job of edging his way inside, pushing opponents towards the cage & cutting fighters off. Anders is a southpaw. He is always looking to land his straight-left hand. He will throw a one-two, or a lead uppercut, left hook combination. He will throw a left straight, right hook combination. When he is walking opponents down, letting his hands go with his check hook, straight-left hand, he is actually pretty good. He hits hard & wears on opponents with the pace & making them go backwards. He has a nice head kick & got a nasty head kick knockout against Tim Williams. He can be very low volume & just follow opponents without throwing which had led to close decision losses. He lost split decisions to Elias Theodorou & Lyoto Machida, where he probably could have won if he threw a little more volume. Anders has power, showing that with his vicious knockout in his last match. Anders has 8 KO/TKO’s & has been TKO’d just one time. Anders wasn’t able to answer the bell in that match & has never been finished by strikes. Anders has taken some crazy beatings & shown super heart & durability.

Eryk Anders is a pretty decent grappler. He does a good job of stalking opponents to the cage & closing the distance for the single collar or double underhooks in the clinch. He is a strong guy & will control against the cage while landing knees and looking for singles or body lock takedowns.  He has a solid single leg in space as well. Anders is very physically strong, and hard to take or hold down. He will usually be the stronger fighter in the clinch & most fighters at the higher weight classes don’t shoot takedowns. Anders has been able to defend 75% of takedowns in the UFC. Anders has really never been stuck under an opponent in the UFC very long & when taken down he’s gotten right back up. Anders comes in shape & won’t gas out. In this fight Anders just has to keep it on the feet & he should definitely win.

 

Gerald Meerschaert

Age: 31

Height: 6’1

Weight: 185

Reach: 77.5”

Gym: Roufusport MMA

From: Wisconsin

UFC Record: 5-3

Fight Matrix: 45

Last Fought: 2 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: W1

Betting Odds: +135

 

Gerald Meerschaert surprised me with an upset victory over Trevin Giles in his last match. Meerschaert has been up & down in his UFC career. Meerschaert is a massive 185 lber. He is an action fighter & usually the fighter moving forward. He has a decent jab, and straight-right hand. He will counter with right hooks. He likes to get fighter’s backs against the cage, where he will unload with long punching combinations to the body and head, and short elbows. He has nasty kicks. He throws nice low leg kicks and powerful body kicks. He will go up top with head kicks as well. Overall, his striking to me is not great. He leaves his head on the center line and can be hit clean with big counters. He is heavy on his lead leg and can get it chopped down. He is very tough, and his ability to take a shot is key to his victories. To me his durability is fading a little bit though. He has 6 KO/TKO’s in his career, but overall, he isn’t a big knockout threat on the feet. He has only been finished by strikes one time in his career.

Meerschaert is a good grappler and has a lot of submissions in his career. he is susceptible to being taken down and submitted himself. He has good single leg takedowns, he does a good job of timing singles when opponents throw kicks. He has nice body lock entries and he is very physically strong in the clinch. He has good control, and nice short knees and elbows. He will grind in the clinch and then eventually drop down for a double or single. He has good chain wrestling and can transition from body locks to doubles to singles very fluidly. On top, he has strong ground & pound, and he will rain down straight punches and elbows. He has good guard passing and is very heavy on top. He is very opportunistic with chokes and has a lot of different chokes he can pull off. He has gotten a guillotine, arm triangle, anaconda, and rear naked choke. He can be taken down pretty easily with body locks and double legs. He allows fighters to move quickly to dominant positions, and he stays calm but can lose rounds through being controlled. I think Gerald will almost allow opponents to take him down & move into dominant positions, so he can scramble to top position. He was able to sweep & submit Trevin Giles in their fight. Gerald just has a knack for getting fighters to fight his fight. He has had 22 submissions in his career but has been submitted 8 times himself.

 

This is going to be a striker vs grappler fight. I think Meerschaert will get knocked out if he can’t get this fight to the mat. I also think Anders will get submitted if he can’t stuff takedowns. I am not confident in Meerschaert getting takedowns at all here, but I am confident that he will at least try for them and not accept a 3-round striking match. I like his edge on the ground and he may only need one takedown to get the win here.  I don’t think this one goes to the judges either way, but I will lean with the underdog in this one to get the fight to the mat and work his way to a submission.

This is close to an all-in fight for me. I think it’s either Anders by KO or Meerschaert by sub. Either probably score highly enough to compete for the $25k lineup in a win. My preferred play is Meerschaert, but this is a GPP only fight for me and I hate his floor for cash games. I think Anders could stuff takedowns and possibly just strike for 15-minutes, but I think he would more likely get a finish with at least 1 knockdown in the process. If I am making 10 lineups I am probably going 5 Meerschaert and 4 Anders. That still leaves me with an out if something happens, but I feel good about the winner being on the optimal lineup and I am ok with throwing money into the pot to have multiple combos with both guys.

Winner – Gerald Meerschaert via 1st round Submission

 

Luis Pena $9,000 vs Matt Frevola $7,200

Luis Pena

Age: 26

Height: 6’3

Weight: 155

Reach: 78”

Gym: AKA

From: California

UFC Record: 3-1

Fight Matrix: 131

Last Fought: 4 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W2

Betting Odds: -170

 

Luis Pena had a dominant victory in his return to LW. He kind of had an easy touch in the returning Matt Wiman but treated him accordingly finishing him in round 3. Pena is a very long opponent, with a 7” reach advantage in this match. Pena will try to stay long & technical. He is also more of a fighter who likes to touch his opponents with shots, and pepper them instead of putting big power in all his shots. He throws a nice jab, and good straight-right hand. He will throw hooks to the body as well. He has nice front kicks to the body and head. He has good lead uppercuts. He will throw a jab, uppercut combo also. He has step-in knees and will grab the plum and throw a knee to the head. In his last match, he landed a few nasty flying knees that really hurt his opponent. Pena is much quicker on his feet & is just a better athlete than Frevola. He is going to have a big reach advantage. As long as he stays technical and doesn’t get drawn into a war he’ll probably piece Frevola up standing. He does give up the center of the cage & needs to be careful when he’s backed past the warning track. I think if he’s going to get clipped it’s going to be with him against the fence after Frevola fakes a takedown. Pena really doesn’t have big power, but he finished Wiman & rocked Steven Peterson so maybe he’s starting to put more into his shots now. He has two career TKO’s and has never been KO/TKO’d.

Pena is a good grappler. He is grinding day in and day out at AKA one of the best wrestling gyms. He likes to get fighters against the cage, get fighters thinking about his striking and level change into double legs. He has solid single legs and will drive opponents to the cage. He will control opponents against the cage with double underhooks. He does a good job of using his length in the to take the back & has good back takes from standing. He has good double legs when he gets his hands clamped, and on top he is only alright. He doesn’t really have great top control or ground & pound. Even when he takes the back, he tends to allow more experienced fighters to turn in or scramble back to their feet. His takedown defense is average but looks to be improving. He is getting better at countering takedowns against the cage with kimuras & guillotines. I feel that will be a huge factor in denying the takedown attempts in this fight. Sometimes he can run out of room in the cage & end up square with his back against the cage & give easy takedowns. In his last match he was able to deny the takedowns and take top position. He landed some heavy ground & pound, and ultimately finished the fight in top position. He is solid off his back. His length allows him to be very tricky on the ground, and he has fast hips and good sweeps. He was able to sweep Ritchie Smullen, and then catch a guillotine choke after rocking him. He has a nice triangle and kimura and has 4 submission finishes.

 

Matt Frevola

Age: 29

Height: 5’9

Weight: 155

Reach: 71”

Gym: Serra-Longo Fight Team

From: New York

UFC Record: 1-1-1

Fight Matrix: 151

Last Fought: 6 Months

Last Five: 3-1-1

Current Streak: W1

Betting Odds: +150

 

Matt Frevola earned his first UFC win in his last matchup. He earned a decision victory as an underdog over Jalin Turner. Frevola has done it all in the UFC. He’s lost, had a draw, and earned a victory. Now he will be looking for consistency & his first two fight UFC win streak. Frevola is a dog & a banger who will go for it. Frevola is very aggressive and likes to walk opponents down and throw hard hooks. He has a good straight-right hand, and he will double up on it, and then shoot a single or double leg. He likes to throw a kick to the body and then a straight-right hand combo. He will also end combinations with head kicks. Frevola has decent head movement, but he drops his hands after he throws and gets hit clean. He also is not the most athletic fighter and his hand speed is not up to par with most fighters at the UFC level. In his last match with Jalin Turner, Frevola was getting tagged trying to get inside over & over. Frevola doesn’t have the best chin & reacts badly to a lot of shots. He doesn’t have huge power, and just has one KO finish in his UFC career. Frevola has been knocked out one time & rocked in every UFC fight he’s been in.

Matt Frevola is not a bad grappler, and that’s what he will need to rely on in this match. He does a good job of setting up his shots with punches. Frevola likes to use his straight punches or hooks inside to flurry & then duck into a takedown. He has good double legs and single legs especially when he has fighters against the cage. In space he can struggle to cut an angle & is definitely better at going for takedowns against the cage. Frevola will go for the takedown right away to start a round if he feels his opponent is weak there in the previous round and does a good job of keeping top control and grinding fighters out. He seems to not be the greatest in the Jiu-Jitsu realm, and in his DWCS fight he was swept multiple times and threatened with an armbar. He has good chokes and is able to get different variations such as guillotines or anaconda chokes. He has good cardio and comes in shape ready to stay in his opponent’s face. He was able to win the fight with Jalin Turner due to his wrestling.  Frevola has 3 career submissions & has never been submitted. His lone loss is via KO.

 

This is a good one. Both guys are well-rounded, and we could see a mixture of striking and grappling here. I think Pena should have the edge on the feet with his height and reach advantage. I think he has more tools in his striking toolbox as well. Frevola should have the power edge though so I think he would be more likely to get a KO and I also think he will be the one to initiate the grappling exchanges. I am leaning with Pena as the pick right now but at these odds it is a dog or pass fight for me and I might even end up changing my pick after weigh ins.

I like both sides of this fight, but my preferred play is Frevola. I think he has an easier path to the optimal lineup at his $7.2k price tag, where I could see Pena winning with 80-85 points and not getting there at $9k. I do think he is the better fighter here though and we have seen him score 120 and 117 DK points already in two of his wins. I think any win from Frevola would pay off his price tag and I would think he has multiple takedowns and advances if he gets it. I think he is right there with Elliott ceiling wise with these cheap underdogs. This isn’t an all-in type fight or anything but with 10 lineups I would maybe have 2-4 Frevola and 1-2 Pena.

Winner – Luis Pena via Split Decision

 

Mackenzie Dern $8,300 vs Amanda Ribas $7,900

Mackenzie Dern

Age: 26

Height: 5’4

Weight: 115

Reach: 63”

Gym: Black House MMA

From: California

UFC Record: 2-0

Fight Matrix: NR

Last Fought: 1 Year 5 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W7

Betting Odds: -140

 

Mackenzie Dern will be looking to continue her ascent to stardom with a win over Amanda Ribas. Dern is already 2-0 in the UFC. Dern hasn’t fought in over a year and is returning just four months after having a baby. That is an extremely fast turnaround & you have to wonder how she has gotten in shape to fight that quickly. Mackenzie Dern is extremely aggressive. Dern is not very technical but has power & goes for it. She will throw a jab out there along with some inside, outside leg kicks. She likes to close the distance with straight hooks & overhand combinations. Dern will throw a jab, overhand right. She will throw a one-two to a body kick combination. She has a solid counter left hook. Dern likes to start quickly & use her combinations to crash into the clinch. She will throw everything into her overhand rights & try to turn your lights out with that punch. She was able to drop Amanda Bobby Cooper with that shot. Dern will throw some round & front kicks to the body and head. Dern will close the distance wildly & throws almost all her shots wide. Ashley Yoder was able to use footwork, keep the range & land some nice straight punch counters. She even dropped Dern in the second round. Mackenzie Dern is not afraid to get hit, nor does she get discouraged when she does get hit. I would say she is a fighter & will be able to battle through adversity.

Mackenzie Dern is one of the best female Jiu-Jitsu practitioners of all time. If she can get fights to the mat, especially if she’s in top position the fight is usually over. Dern really isn’t the best offensive wrestler & in her fight with Ashley Yoder she wasn’t able to get a takedown until very late in the fight. Dern was able to control in the clinch against the cage with underhooks, and land some decent knees. Dern doesn’t have the most offensive from that position & with Ribas being a judo black belt, she may be at a disadvantage in the clinch. Dern was ultimately able to get a body lock takedown late in round 3, quickly took the back & was very close to getting the rear naked choke. Dern does not have any offensive wrestling in terms of shooting and only really goes for upper body clinches and try to trip or drag her opponents to the ground. She will try to use a single against the cage at times but does not do a good job of finding the angle to dump her opponent. When she can get on top, Mackenzie Dern is very good. Dern transitions very quickly & is excellent at taking the back. Once she has the back her control is top notch & she usually will find the rear naked choke. Dern has a strong mount as well and will look for armbars from mount. In Jiu-Jitsu, Dern was more known for her guard game. She was excellent with her butterfly guard & submissions off her back. Dern is arguably the best leg locker in women’s Jiu-Jitsu history. Dern will throw up fast triangles, armbars, and you don’t want to be in this girl’s guard. In MMA Dern has finished 4 of her wins by submission, with 3 rear naked chokes. If this fight hits the mat, even though Ribas is high level as well, I think Dern will be levels above. I do question Dern’s cardio coming in this spot. She is coming off a pregnancy only 4 months ago, and historically we have seen some bad performances coming off pregnancies.

 

Amanda Ribas

Age: 26

Height: 5’4

Weight: 115

Reach: 66”

Gym: American Top Team

From: Brazil

UFC Record: 1-0

Fight Matrix 29

Last Fought: 4 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W2

Betting Odds: +120

 

Amanda Ribas had an excellent UFC debut submitting Emily Whitmire in the second round. That was Ribas’ first fight in over 3 years, and she looked much improved. Ribas is not a very good striker. She basically just likes to use forward pressure to back opponents up, throw a combination & crash into the clinch. She plods forward with her chin high spamming one-twos down the middle. She will throw inside leg kicks & overhand right leads. She will throw a left hook, right uppercut as well. I have seen her throw some body & head kicks, along with spinning kicks, but they aren’t very effective. When she is striking in the pocket, she has slow hand speed & keeps her chin straight up in the air. She gets tagged with counters & it really just turns into a 50-50 brawl. She did show some improvements with her hand speed in her last match, but her opponent didn’t offer much at all on the feet in return. When opponents stuff her takedowns & force her to go backwards she doesn’t have much of anything. She was knocked out by Polyana Viana, who is a very low-level striker herself. She is tough & willing to go toe to toe but is going to be at a power disadvantage vs Dern. Ribas has 3 KO/TKO’s.

Amanda Ribas is a high-level grappler & black belt in judo & Jiu-Jitsu. She has competed in EBi, and it will be interesting if she will look to take the accomplished Jiu-Jitsu player to the mat. Ribas is very strong in the clinch. She controls fighters against the cage well. Amanda Ribas almost immediately looked to get the match to the ground in her last fight. Ribas was able to get her in the clinch, circle to the back & jump on it standing. She got the body triangle, showed great control, and eventually did get the rear naked choke. Whitmire was able to turn in & take top position on Ribas in round 1. Whitmire was able to control on top for about a minute & 30 seconds but didn’t get any offense off. Ribas was able to control posture in her guard, but not stand up. Ribas was able to take her down in round two, move to mount, land some big shots and forced Whitmire to give her back & submitted her. Ribas has 3 rear naked choke submissions & has never been submitted.

 

I think this fight is likely to hit the mat and I think Dern is the better grappler and submission artist. However, she gave birth only 4 months ago and that is making me unsure of this fight. I do like her at these odds if that wasn’t the case, but I don’t know how her body can even be ready for a fight just 4-months after childbirth. I am not a doctor, so I am going to lean with Dern based on what I have seen on film, but this is a very risky one to bet.

We could see a lot of grappling in this one and I like it for that reason. It could turn into a 15-minute sloppy striking battle which probably doesn’t score well, but I don’t think that will be the case. This might not hit the mat as much as I would like it to, but I think it does end up there. Dern is my preferred play because I think she is the better grappler and more likely to finish. I like her price tag as well and with a finish I think she pays that off in any round. I think Ribas is the better striker here and could get takedowns and grappling of her own, but I don’t have a lot of interest in her. Maybe 1 lineup. I think you can play either side in cash games if you feel good about it but it’s mostly Dern or pass for me here.  With 10 lineups I am probably going 3-4 Dern and 0-1 Ribas.

Winner – Mackenzie Dern via 2nd round Submission

 

Kron Gracie $8,700 vs Cub Swanson $7,500

Kron Gracie

Age: 31

Height: 5’9

Weight: 145

Reach: 70”

Gym: Nick Diaz Academy

From: Brazil

UFC Record: 1-0

Fight Matrix: 37

Last Fought: 8 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W5

Betting Odds: -160

 

Kron Gracie is getting a massive opportunity to jump right into the fray at 145 lbs. Gracie is getting to face a legend in just his second UFC fight. Cub Swanson has lost 4 consecutive fights, and I think the UFC is seeing an opportunity to build Kron off him. Kron still looks very green in the stand up. He likes to throw a jab, straight-right hand. He will also slip a jab and throw right hooks. He will throw a jab to the body to a straight-right hand. He has thrown a couple front kicks to the body, but I have seen barely any kicks from him. He doesn’t really setup his punches much with feints or fakes & is hittable. He isn’t fast, and kind of a plodder. He is always just looking to close the distance & grab a hold of you. I imagine he has improved his striking over this time off. He is tough & willing to get hit unlike a lot of BJJ fighters. He has no KO/TKO’s and that’s not what he’s looking to do. He is 5-0 in his career overall.

Kron Gracie’s Jiu-Jitsu is on another level. He is one of the best, pure BJJ fighters in the world. He likes to close the distance into the single collar, and he will throw a lot of uppercuts & hooks to the body. He is excellent at pulling guard and will attempt flying triangles. He is great at getting his legs latched midair to have control of the body & keep opponents on the ground. In his last match vs Caceres, he ducked under into double underhooks very nicely & got the fight to the mat. He used that to transition to the back & quickly locked in a RNC. His guard is phenomenal. He will get a very high guard, offset opponents balance, and try take the back while his opponents still have to defend the armbar & triangle. The ability he has to use his legs to go from guard to the back mount is unbelievable. He will get the arm under the neck even when he doesn’t fully have the back and contort his opponent to get the squeeze. He will transition belly down armbars to leg locks & take the back as well. Once he has the back he is like a boulder. He has super heavy top pressure & will soften his opponents up with heel kicks and punches. If this fight touches the mat one time, I think Swanson will get submitted. Gracie has 5 submissions in his 5 pro victories.

 

Cub Swanson

Age: 35

Height: 5’8

Weight: 145

Reach: 70”

Gym: CSA

From: New Mexico

UFC Record: 10-7

Fight Matrix: 35

Last Fought: 5 Months

Last Five: 1-4

Current Streak: L4

Betting Odds: +140

 

Cub Swanson is fighting for his career in this spot. Swanson has lost 4 consecutive fights, being finished in 3 of them. In this matchup, Swanson is going to have a massive wealth of experience to fall back on. He has been facing the best of the best for almost a decade, while Gracie has never faced a top 15 opponent. Swanson is notorious for getting caught in submissions though, so this is a dangerous matchup for him. Swanson is a range striker with good boxing & kicking skills. He has a very nice jab. He will throw a jab, slip his head off center line & then follow with a big overhand right. He has great movement & is always switching stances & giving different looks at range. He likes to use a lot of lateral movement & walk opponents into combinations. He is good at throwing a left hook to switch to southpaw & circle off the cage. He likes to walk opponents into big looping hooks or overhands from both sides & will mix in head kicks after those shots.  He will throw himself out of balance with punches at times but is brilliant at using that to spring right into a kick. He has strong uppercuts in close range. When he lands a shot, he is great at feinting with it to keep opponents thinking when it’s going to come again. Swanson will also attack the body with straight punches & big kicks when he’s in southpaw. In his last two matches he has seemed a bit gun shy. He will throw a lot of range finding leg kicks, but he didn’t throw much else. When he’s in the pocket, after he throws, if opponents return right away he is there to be countered. Renato Moicano was able to catch him as he tried to crash the distance with long range shots, eventually dropping him & taking him out. I don’t think he has the same speed, explosion, or even durability he once had. Swanson has still only been finished by strikes one time in his career. He has 11 KO/TKO’s himself, but none since 2013. He did have a run in the UFC where he had 4 KO/TKO’s in 5 fights.

Cub Swanson has always struggled with grappling over his career. He has had problems with takedown defense & submission defense. Swanson won’t really go for many takedowns himself. He can sometimes shoot double legs from range, and counter with hip toss takedowns in the clinch. He can be reversed when going for the throw & ending up on his back. His takedown defense has improved. He hasn’t been taken down much in recent fights and was able to keep it on the feet with Frankie Edgar in the rematch. Swanson was caught in a standing guillotine against Brian Ortega and dropped & rear naked choked against Renato Moicano recently. Swanson is a black belt himself but has been submitted 7 times. When he’s taken down he will attack with submissions, but mostly just to stand up. Swanson only has 2 submissions in his career & none in the UFC.

 

Cub has to keep this fight standing to get the win here and I think a KO would be his only real chance because Gracie will be going for takedowns early and often, so he won’t just accept a 15-minute striking match. Gracie is one of the best in the world on the ground though and Swanson has been submitted 7 times in his career. I think this is a tough matchup for Cub here and I have to lean with Gracie to get the fight to the ground, and when he does, I think he will work his way to a submission. I think Gracie via submission could be a good bet this weekend if it opens at + money.

This is a tricky one for DraftKings. I think both are solid plays, but I also think they will both be fairly high owned. My preferred play is Gracie but if he doesn’t get a 1st round submission I don’t think he makes the optimal lineup. That is why it is tricky for me. If Cub wins, there is a decent chance he can make the optimal, but we are probably hoping for a knockout because I don’t think he will want to land too much volume here. He will be looking to stay at range and not let Gracie get ahold of him. If Gracie wins with a 2nd round or 3rd round sub, then it might mean he couldn’t get a takedown before then and he won’t score highly enough to pay off his salary. I do want some Kron rostered here, but I don’t hate a fade on this fight and hope that he wins late, and we can kill off half the field who have this fight in their lineups. I don’t love this fight for cash, but I would prefer Kron there as well and we don’t need a 1st round sub from him in cash games.

Winner – Kron Gracie via 1st round Submission

 

Joanna Jedrzejczyk $9,200 vs Michelle Waterson $7,000

Joanna Jedrzejczyk

Age: 32

Height: 5’6

Weight: 115

Reach: 65.5”

Gym: American Top Team

From: Poland

UFC Record: 9-3

Fight Matrix: 4

Last Fought: 10 Months

Last Five: 2-3

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: -300

 

The pride of Poland returns to headline her 3rd UFC event. Joanna Jedrzejczyk is returning to the weight class she dominated after a failed bid to win the flyweight title. Jedrzejczyk is 1-3 in her last four fights & needs a victory here. Joanna is blistering fast, and one of the better strikers in the entire UFC. Joanna has an amazing jab, and she needs to use it a lot in this match. She will double and triple up on her jab, really accentuating her reach.  She needs to stay long and throw her jab hard and straight both to the head & the body. She likes to use her jabs to set up combinations, and when she finds her range she is deadly. She has a nice jab to straight-right hand to the body combination. She does a good job of using her jab to setup her overhand right. She has nice feints & fakes and she likes fake shots to get reactions from opponents and attack other areas left vulnerable. She has a nice left hook to the body. She dropped Claudia Gadelha with a nice lead uppercut. She has brutal low calf kicks, really battering the leg of Rose Namajunas in their title fight. She has nasty front teips to the body, they are very fast and straight, and she digs the balls of her feet into her opponent’s stomach. She will throw her right teip to the head after landing it to the body a few times and can catch her fighters clean. She does a good job of setting up her teips with leg kicks and likes to throw a right, inside low leg kick to a front kick to the body combination. She will throw the front leg front kick to the face as well, and she’s fluid kicking with both legs. She has nice, fast left high kicks, and she likes to set it up either with the jab or right leg kick. Joanna is going to be the faster fighter in space. Joanna has a tendency to get emotional and stand flat footed and try to wing hooks and straight punches in the pocket. She was tagged a couple times by Tecia Torres because of this, and continually touched with the leaping left hook of Rose Namajunas in both fights. Joanna keeps a high volume of shots out there and is able to keep the same pace for the entire fight, if not even turn it up as it goes. She is much more of a volume striker than a knockout artist, but she is dangerous with 4 KO/TKO wins in her career. She has only been finished once by strikes, but her chin has been questionable lately.

Joanna Jedrzejczyk is a strong grappler. She is nasty in the clinch. She does a good job of sprawling on takedowns, getting an overhook and throwing hard knees to the body to go with elbows. She did a good job defending the takedowns of Tecia Torres against the cage, and ultimately using her underhooks and good head positioning to turn Torres and control her against the fence. She had nasty knees to the body and good front elbows to the face. She likes to get the Muay Thai plum clinch where she is deadly. She does a great job of pulling opponents’ heads down & attacking with knees and will throw hard elbows to the head. She has bloodied the faces of multiple opponents with those hard-slashing elbows. She has great takedown defense, she has phenomenal balance, and technique, and is very hard to takedown. When she does get taken down, she does a great job of protecting herself and returning to her feet and making her opponents work. We have seen opponents such as Claudia Gadelha have success taking down Joanna early, but as the fight went on, she gassed, and JJ took over. Joanna won’t go for takedowns herself normally, she has only two takedowns landed in 11 UFC fights, most of those being 5 rounds. She has 83% takedown defense. She isn’t really a submission threat with just one submission in her career, and she has never been subbed herself. I feel she will be much physically stronger in this match.

 

Michelle Waterson

Age: 33

Height: 5’3

Weight: 115

Reach: 62”

Gym: Jackson Wink MMA

From: New Mexico

UFC Record: 5-2

Fight Matrix: 6

Last Fought: 7 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: W3

Betting Odds: +250

 

Michelle Waterson is on the best run of her career. She has a lot of confidence off the back of a 3-fight win streak. Waterson has looked great in her last 2 fights. Waterson has really improved her footwork & movement on the feet. She is much less stationary, and circles off the cage better. In this fight Michelle has to be a moving target. She has to be on the outside moving laterally, giving different angles & not standing in front of JJ. Michelle is much better at controlling distance than in the past also. Michelle uses a snappy jab. Waterson has a nice one-two. She will throw a lot of straight & overhand right shots. Waterson doesn’t like exchanging and being in the pocket. She has started to implement some takedown feints & come up into uppercuts. She has good inside, outside leg kicks. Waterson uses a lot of oblique kicks to the legs. She likes to throw a sidekick to the knee to a left hook combination. She uses a lot of front leg sidekicks to the body and head. She will throw some nice round kicks to the body and head. Waterson has very nice spinning heel kicks, along with question mark kicks.  Waterson’s boxing is still not very good. She falls into punches at times and is very open to straight punch counters when she throws her overhand right. When Waterson gets hit clean, her defense is not good. She will reach to grab instead of trying to defend, and even turns away at times. Rose Namajunas was able to land a nasty head kick, because Michelle turned away from her a bit. Her last 3 opponents all have plodding footwork & weren’t able to cut her off well. Waterson can back up with her lead hand down as well, which I think could get her in trouble vs Joanna. Waterson is going to be the smaller fighter who is at a power disadvantage. She has just three career TKO’s. Waterson has a good chin & is tough, but does get marked up a lot, and I don’t think she has the greatest chin. She has just been TKO’d one time in her career, but she was dropped & submitted by Namajunas.

Michelle Waterson is a good grappler with improved wrestling skills. She is still small for the division and can get out muscled in the clinch. Tecia Torres was able to beat her up & move her around in the clinch.  She does look to be improving with her strength. She was able to land some big elbows & knees in the clinch vs Karolina and controlled her against the cage. Waterson does have one of the best hip tosses in the game. She is able to get a lot of these girls with it, including Torres & Karolina Kowalkiewicz in her last fight. Waterson will also land nice body lock & trip takedowns. Waterson has a very fast single leg shot, and chains it into a double leg very well. In top position, Waterson is more about control recently. She stays very heavy & works short shots while maintaining position. In Waterson’s last match she did jump on an armbar late in round 2 that was close. Waterson can be inactive in top position and has had trouble with submission defense inside opponent’s guards. Cortney Casey was able to put her in some armbar positions, and Torres had a close triangle. Waterson is one of those girls who is very hard to submit and can scramble out of very tight chokes & armbars. Waterson has been submitted 3 times. Rose Namajunas was able to submit her in the UFC with a rear naked choke after dropping her. Michelle does like to jump on the back & got a nice rear-naked choke after a hip toss vs Paige Vanzant. Almost all Waterson’s submissions have been via rear-naked choke. In this fight, Michelle has to get takedowns & top control. I don’t see her being able to survive in a 5-round fight solely on the feet. Waterson does have 9 career submissions.

 

If this was a 3-round fight I would be looking to bet Waterson at these odds. I think she can possibly win the early rounds by getting takedowns and keeping JJ on her back. However, with 5-rounds, I have to favor JJ and I think she will get the early reads on Waterson to stay away from the takedowns and keeping this fight on the feet where she has the edge. I don’t think Waterson can win rounds on the feet here, so she is going to need takedowns to win the rounds in my opinion and I don’t think she can do that consistently for 25-minutes. I am going to take JJ to win rounds 2-5 on the feet with her beautiful striking and high pace for a 49-46 unanimous decision. UPDATE: With the weight cut I am not as confident in JJ here if she makes the weight. I think this could be a close split decision type fight either way. Dog or pass on the betting line for sure now. I will stick with my JJ pick though but maybe 48-47 now…

On DraftKings, this is close to an all-in fight. With 5-rounds to work with, I think the winner is likely on the optimal lineup. Any win from Waterson likely gets her on the optimal and with the pace JJ sets on the feet, she should pay off her salary and have one of the higher ceilings on the card. I will say JJ is my preferred play, but I liked her more earlier in the week and now I might be close to 50/50. I also might avoid this fight in a lineup or two and hope JJ wins a close decision and scores 85-90 which might not put her on the optimal. I think this fight will be very highly owned and I could see that as a possible outcome and that is why it won’t be in all my lineups. Even if I make 10 lineups this week, I would probably have maybe 4 of each and fade it in 2. I am totally fine with stacking in cash as well.

Winner – Joanna Jedrzejczyk via Unanimous Decision

 

 

 

Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!

 

 

 

*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru

**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.

*** All my premium bets can be found at this link: https://MMAoddsbreaker.com/premium-picks/