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BigMarley3’s UFC Boston DraftKings Breakdown

BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown

 

Event – UFC on ESPN 6                                               Location – Boston, Massachusetts

 

This weekend, we have a 13-fight card in Boston. DraftKings has some OK contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $100k being paid out. I will probably stick to the top GPPs this week and throw a handful of entries at that $25k prize. Typically, I stay around 20 lineups each week and go after that big GPP and then max the $4 20-entry max GPP as well. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.

 

A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.

 

With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights and hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:

 

Tanner Boser $8,600 vs Daniel Spitz $7,600

Tanner Boser

Age: 28

Height: 6’2

Weight: 249

Reach: 75.5”

Gym: Hayabusa Training Centre

From: Canada

UFC Record: 0-0

Fight Matrix: 70

Last Fought: 5 Months

Last Five: 3-1-1

Current Streak: W1

Betting Odds: -125

 

Tanner Boser had his UFC debut spoiled when his opponent was forced to withdraw due to a USADA suspension. He has had to wait a few weeks to get rebooked, and now is fighting the returning Daniel Spitz. Tanner Boser is a low volume striker. He likes to work behind kicks & counter with punches. He will throw some occasional jabs to the head & body. He throws elbows as opponents try to close the distance. Boser has nasty leg kicks to the inside & outside. That is probably the best part of his game. He will throw heavy round & front kicks to the body & head. He has nice one-twos as opponents try to close the distance. He will throw counter hooks moving backwards, along with overhand rights. Boser is pretty flat footed & can come up short with a lot of his shots. He doesn’t tend to go first much & likes to be on the outside. That could be a problem for him in this fight against a much taller opponent. Boser does pick it up as the fight goes on usually. He will cut the cage off by switching stances and throw more volume. He is hittable, but he has a great chin. I have seen him take some bombs & show nothing. He has 7 KO/TKO’s but definitely more of a volume fighter. He finished his last match with leg kicks. He has lost some decisions that I think were a bit raw deals & he could easily have a better record. He has been knocked out one time in his career.

Boser is not an offensive grappler. I haven’t seen him shoot many, if any takedowns at all or look for the clinch. He shows good balance & takedown defense against the cage. He will dig solid double underhooks to circle off the cage & attack with knees. Denis Smoldarov, who’s a strong wrestler, was able to time some double leg takedowns, but Boser also showed a strong sprawl. Boser isn’t bad off his back. He has decent get-ups & will attack with kimuras. Boser has good cardio & will go to work off the breaks. His takedown defense to me is pretty good. He isn’t someone who will work on top much. He has two rear naked choke submissions early in his career. He has never been submitted.

 

Daniel Spitz

Age: 29

Height: 6’7

Weight: 243

Reach: 82”

Gym: Sikjitsu

From: Washington

UFC Record: 1-2

Fight Matrix: NR

Last Fought: 1 Year 4 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: +105

 

Daniel Spitz is returning after a long layoff. He has been out well over a year since getting knocked out by Walt Harris. Spitz is 1-2 in his UFC career, and has not been very impressive. Daniel Spitz is a very tall fighter with a long reach. Spitz likes to work behind his reach & movement. Spitz movement is pretty good. He is light on his feet, has good feints and quick lateral movement. Spitz has good head movement. Spitz has some nice inside, outside leg kicks. Spitz uses a lot of front & round kicks to the body. He has a nice straight-right hand. Spitz will use a jab & left hook. He will throw some standing right elbows. He likes to hand fight with his lead hand as a range finder & to offset his opponent’s rhythm. Spitz will throw some nice head kicks, along with some spinning kicks occasionally. Spitz carries his hands low & is very hittable. He can throw kicks with his hands down & get countered clean. Mark Godbeer was able to use leg kicks to slow Spitz’s movement, and dominated him inside. Spitz is very tall, so he struggles to box in the pocket. Spitz will try to use the Thai clinch to land knees to the body & head. He is very susceptible to head & body shots. Spitz is weak to the body, and it really drains his gas tank. Spitz just doesn’t pose a ton of danger with his attacks, so fighters can get inside without much worry. He did knockout Anthony Hamilton with a shot as he came inside but Hamilton had no chin at that point. Spitz did look faster & in better shape vs Walt Harris, showing better cardio. Spitz is very tough, and will try to poker face when he’s hurt, but Walt Harris got him out of there for the first time in his career. Spitz has two KO/TKO’s in his six wins.

Daniel Spitz is a good submission grappler, but not a great wrestler. Spitz will use takedown feints to create striking opportunities and did shoot a couple takedowns vs Mark Godbeer. Spitz will shoot single legs, but he lacks drive. He will try to use the single leg to come up into body locks. He got a nice body lock takedown vs Godbeer. Spitz doesn’t have very good top control and Godbeer, who is not a good grappler, was able to quickly stand up from underneath him. Spitz hasn’t shown any top control in the UFC. He does have 3 submissions on the regional scene. When Spitz was knocked down by Walt Harris, he attempted to use his guard to control & survive but couldn’t control posture & was finished. Spitz most likely does have a tricky guard due to his height. Daniel Spitz showed poor cardio in his one 3 round fight and needs to have that addressed here.

 

This could be a sloppy Heavyweight fight and I am not really impressed with either guy. Spitz is going to be 5 inches taller and will have a 7-inch reach advantage here. I could see that giving Boser some problems and he could have some success in the clinch if he can work his knees. I also think Spitz is more likely to look for takedowns as well. Boser could be the better overall striker though and he could maybe land a knockout if Spitz has his hands down. I don’t trust either guy here, but I will take the underdog to win a close, split decision because he at least has his Octagon jitters out of the way.

On DraftKings, this is dog or pass for me. I really don’t care for this fight, but I don’t like the underdogs on this card, so I will be mixing them in and hoping to get the right combo. Spitz is in play for me for that reason. I want to fade more of the favorites though on this card and for me, Boser is going to be one of them. At $8.6k, he is going to need a finish here and I don’t want to bank on that happening even though this is the lowest level fight on the card and they are HWs. I wouldn’t trust either in cash games though, so just GPPs for both sides, but I’ll have a full fade on Boser and I would probably need over 20-25 lineups before I thought about targeting him.

Winner –  Daniel Spitz via Split Decision

 

Kevin Holland $8,900 vs Brendan Allen $7,300

Kevin Holland

Age: 26

Height: 6’3

Weight: 185

Reach: 81”

Gym:  Team Lloyd Irving

From: Texas

UFC Record: 3-1

Fight Matrix: 44

Last Fought: 4 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W3

Betting Odds: -160

 

Kevin Holland is stepping in here on short notice to take on Brendan Allen. Holland was scheduled to face Antonio Arroyo November 16th, so his fight got moved up about a month prior to what he was anticipating. Kevin Holland has won 3 consecutive fights in the UFC but has had some very close calls. Holland has a ton of potential, and in most fights in my opinion he’s clearly the better fighter but plays around in there. He makes fights much closer than they have to be & hasn’t shown that killer instinct in the octagon. Holland is a dynamic athlete with a great frame for the division. He is much faster & just better overall than Allen. The problem is his tendency to play around. Eventually, doing that will lead to losses. He does a good job of staying long. He has a nice jab, good one-twos, and his straight-right hand is accurate. He has a nice check left hook. He will throw long hooks & slaps as well. He will throw jabs & straight-right hands to the body. He lunges in with a lot of his punches & is fast in & out. He can leave his chin high with his hands down. He will also lean back at times & use that tall man type defense. He is very good with his kicks. He has nice leg kicks. He will attack with inside/outside leg kicks, and oblique kicks to the knees. He has a very good lead leg. He will throw a lot of lead leg hook kicks to the body & head. He has nice round kicks, and heavy rear leg front kicks to the body. He will throw a front kick to a straight-right hand combination. He did a great job of targeting the body of John Phillips with front kicks, hurting him multiple times. When he gets pressured, he will open up with jump knees. He will mix in lead elbows in close range. He is very good at keeping a high guard & rolling with shots in close range. He will let his opponents hit his guard & then try to time elbows & shots in between their combos. It is a bit dangerous because he isn’t moving & there is always the chance the right shot slips through the guard and hurts him. Overall, he is excellent at fighting long & is an awkward puzzle to solve. He can allow himself to get backed up against the cage & become more defensive than offensive if an opponent has power. He does have a great chin & will talk to opponents and get confidence off taking their shots. After he gets hit he can get emotional and walk forward with his hands down. He definitely is at his best when he is feinting with the lead leg and using it to setup his punches & going forward himself. He has 5 KO/TKO’s & has never been finished with strikes.

Kevin Holland is a good grappler. He is a brown belt under Dean Lister. He has solid body locks, and good G&P. He was able to get two nice double legs in his last match, but that was against a fighter with no grappling. Overall, he doesn’t look to go for takedowns much or to work in the clinch. He will throw the occasional clinch elbow or knee. He will look to get standing guillotines. He will also go for flying armbars & triangles. On top, he will throw hard punches standing in an opponent’s guard due to his length and can land elbows. He will look to use his length to pass into dominant positions & and get the mount or back. He was able to get a rear naked choke in his last fight. He is dangerous with submissions; he has a nasty guillotine, good triangles and leg locks. He will sweep with omaplatas. He will attack with kimuras. He is active on top or off his back. Holland’s takedown defense in his fight against Meerschaert was terrible. He was taken down in the clinch multiple times. He did show the ability to get out of deep submissions & scramble with a submission artist. He was able to take the back several times himself and sweep to top position. It was just frustrating to see his fight IQ. He had a huge advantage on the feet & wouldn’t disengage in the grappling when opportunities were presented. He has 6 submissions & only been submitted one time. Holland is very relaxed in the cage, extremely hard to finish with great cardio. Holland should try to use lateral movement early; counter & make Allen gun shy by making him miss & make him pay. Once Allen is hesitant to throw, then he can go forward and start to pick him apart. I think he should look to keep it on the feet & be ready to sprawl. I do think he has better Jiu-Jitsu & may find a sweep or submission, but his biggest edge will be on the feet.

 

Brendan Allen

Age: 23

Height: 6’2

Weight: 185

Reach: 77”

Gym: Roufusport MMA

From: Louisiana

UFC Record: 0-0

Fight Matrix: 85

Last Fought: 3 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W4

Betting Odds: +140

 

Brendan Allen will be making his UFC debut after his first-round finish on the DWCS. Allen is a Roufusport product & already pretty experienced. He has fought & defeated some solid competitors. Brendan Allen is a veteran for being on the regional scene, he has headlined 5 LFA events. Allen to me is really pretty solid. He has technical striking with power in his hands. He has an excellent jab, good hooks & catches fighters as he’s moving backwards. When he goes forward he is super aggressive. He will crash with hard punches & closes with big knees to the body. Allen’s striking defense is terrible. He is very hittable & not the fastest guy. Allen has power & 4 KO/TKO’s. Allen has a good chin never being finished by strikes. He is willing to walk through punches & take one to give one.

Brendan Allen should be looking to get this fight do the mat He has strong takedowns. Allen will get deep on body locks & takedowns against the fence. He has good double legs as well. In top position, he has decent top control & is aggressive looking for the back. He will work in side control looking for kimuras & armbars. Allen is good at creating scrambles, but he can end up on his back as well, and I think Holland has better Jiu-Jitsu here. Allen has 7 submissions & has been submitted one time. Every UFC caliber opponent he’s faced thus far, Allen has lost. Allen does have good cardio & five round experience.

 

This should be a fun fight and could be a back and forth one. I think Holland is the better fighter everywhere here, but he is taking the fight on short notice and he doesn’t have the highest fight IQ. He also has poor takedown defense and I could see Allen having success targeting against that. I do think Holland is the better grappler though and could reverse takedowns to get on top. He is also the better striker here as well. If he comes in shape, then I like him to get the job done here.

I like both sides of this fight for DraftKings but more so the Holland side. I think there could be a decent amount of grappling here and I could see Holland getting multiple takedowns, reverses, and advances here. I like him more than Salmon and Brady so if I can’t get up to Hardy/McCann then I am fine with Holland. Allen is also in play as a dog because he is live here and could land multiple takedowns and maybe even a knockout. I just don’t think he is good enough to beat Holland at this point but if he does win I think he scores over 10x. I think both guys are playable in cash games as well, but I would probably prefer to go elsewhere if I can.

Winner – Kevin Holland via Unanimous Decision

 

Sean Brady $9,200 vs Court McGee $7,000

Sean Brady

Age: 26

Height: 5’9

Weight: 170

Reach: 72.5”

Gym: Renzo Gracie Philly

From: Pennsylvania

UFC Record: 0-0

Fight Matrix: 162

Last Fought: 8 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W10

Betting Odds: -235

 

Sean Brady enters the UFC the CFFC champion & undefeated at 10-0. Brady is from Philadelphia & should get a huge pop from the crowd.  He should be ready for this spot having fought some solid fighters & headlined events. It is difficult to find footage online of Brady, but his last fight was on fight pass. Sean Brady is a technical striker. He likes to walk opponents down, cut them off, & uses feints to get inside. He will switch stances to cut opponents off. Brady isn’t very dangerous or high volume with his striking. Brady has nice low kicks. He will use his jab & left hook, along with one-twos & overhands to back opponents up. Brady will attack with some round kicks to the legs, body & head, but doesn’t put a lot of power on them. Brady pushes fighters back & gets inside well. He basically uses good defense feints & pressure to back fighters up, so he can take them down. I do feel Brady is faster & more fluid than McGee, and it will be interesting if he has the confidence to open up more in this one. Sean Brady has 3 KO/TKO’s. He has power, but he chooses to not throw full power most of the time. He is undefeated at 10-0 and showed good durability overall. I have only seen a couple fights of his and haven’t really seen him hurt or tagged clean to know how he’d react.

Sean Brady is a strong grappler. Brady is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu under Daniel Gracie. Sean Brady will look to mix it up & primarily grapples in fights. Brady has pretty good singles & doubles, but really excels at getting takedowns in the clinch. He will use his striking to back opponents up, and when he can get into body locks against the cage, he dumps opponents easily. Brady likes to move to half guard, get the cross body, and look for kimuras & straight armbars. He will trap the wrist and land punches to the body and head. Brady was able to posture up & finish his last match with ground & pound in round 4. Brady will also trap the wrist & use the ground & pound to force opponents to give their back where he has good control. He only has one career rear naked choke. Brady isn’t a big finisher. He cares more about control & position, and if the finish comes he will take it. Brady has 2 submissions. Brady has great cardio, and usually breaks opponents as fights go on. He has been competing in 5 round matches recently, so he should be able to push a sick pace in this one. Brady actually is similar to Court McGee in his fighting style, but more athletic.

 

Court McGee

Age: 34

Height: 5’11

Weight: 170

Reach: 75.5”

Gym: Factory X Muay Thai

From: Utah

UFC Record: 8-7

Fight Matrix: 93

Last Fought: 6 Months

Last Five: 2-3

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: +195

 

Court McGee will be looking for a different result behind his third camp with Factory X. McGee lost a split decision in his last match but did not look good in my opinion. McGee has lost 3 of his last 4 fights, and badly needs a victory here. McGee is a pressure fighter with well-rounded skills. He keeps a high pace, mixing takedowns with a lot of volume of the feet. McGee throws a lot of jabs & one-twos. He will throw a jab, left hook combination. He will attack the body with jabs & one-twos. He has strong leg & body kicks. He will throw front kicks to the body as well. He can throw the kicks with both legs. He likes to slip & rip in the pocket and has solid head movement. He will slip the jab & throw a left hook. He will slip & throw a straight-right hand as well. He likes to close the distance, get in the single collar clinch and throw short uppercuts. He isn’t the fastest guy, but his volume and forward pressure wear on fighters as time goes on. McGee has a sick chin and will eat shots and stay right in the pocket and continue to move forward. He has only been finished one time in his entire career. He doesn’t possess big power with only 3 TKO’s himself.

Court McGee is a good grappler. McGee has good timing on his double legs. He will get in on the legs, push opponents to the cage & work from there. He does a good job of changing his grip to a tight waist & trying to circle to the back. He is very good at finishing takedowns against the cage, especially as the fight goes on. He likes to land short knees to the body and shots to the head in the clinch, and he will change peels and shoot for doubles and singles. He isn’t the most efficient wrestler early on, but he gets a takedown in round 3 in a majority of fights. When he is on top, he has nice ground and pound and likes to punch and pass to better positions. He has no problem staying in an opponent’s guard and beating them up with elbows and punches as well. McGee isn’t a big finisher & prefers to control & win the fight on the cards. McGee was denied by Dhiego Lima on all his takedown attempts in his last match. McGee has good takedown defense & is hard to hold down. McGee can be controlled a bit in the clinch but will attempt nice throws & reversals to get top position. He can give his back when he does this, but he’s very good at defending the back takes & getting back to his feet. McGee will look for front chokes to defend takedowns. His takedown defense is excellent & he’s very hard to hold down. McGee’s cardio is his biggest weapon. The guy doesn’t get tired & will continue to come forward and push a pace for 15 or 25 minutes. McGee has 7 submissions, but just two UFC finishes in his first two UFC fights. McGee hasn’t had a finish in his last 13 matches, and only has been finished one time. He is a tough out for anyone & usually fights close.

 

Brady is an undefeated, top prospect who was the champion in Cage Fury Fighting Championships. I do think he will be the fighter who dictates where this fight takes place, but I could see McGee having some success here. Brady should look to wrestle and clinch up against the cage here and not look to have a 15-minute striking match. McGee should be the higher volume fighter on the feet and he has the cardio where he can pick up pace as the fight gets into the 2nd and 3rd rounds. I think Brady is the better all-around fighter with more potential and I will pick him to get a decision win here. However, this is a dog or pass fight on the betting line IMO.

At $9.2k, Brady is going to be a full fade for me. He could rack up multiple takedowns or even get a KO, but I would rather just figure out a way to pay up for Hardy or McCann. If you want to take a shot at Brady at low ownership I am fine with it as a pivot away from those chalky favorites, but I won’t be going there myself this week. It is a dog or pass fight for me on DraftKings and I think McGee is fine in all formats. Not a guy I am looking to target but I am fine with him as a last spot filler. We have a -240 Fight Goes To Decision line on this one so I like the floor of McGee but I am not sure either guy has much of a ceiling.

Winner – Sean Brady via Unanimous Decision

 

Boston Salmon $9,000 vs Randy Costa $7,200

Boston Salmon

Age: 28

Height: 5’9

Weight: 135

Reach: 72.5”

Gym: Xtreme Couture

From: Nevada

UFC Record: 0-1

Fight Matrix: 490

Last Fought: 6 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: -160

 

Boston Salmon will be looking to bounce back from his disaster of a debut. Salmon was a pretty heavy favorite and got knocked out in less than 30 seconds. He is now facing a friend in Randy Costa. Salmon has not gotten a victory in over two years. He has said some questionable things in the past that make me question his mentality. He has said comments such as he wasn’t excited for his last fight and didn’t care if he won or lost. He needs to have a better mindset coming into this fight. Boston Salmon is a very good boxer. He has an extensive amateur career & been in the ring with beasts such as Errol Spence Jr. Salmon is much more traditional and will look to be technically sound vs Costa. He is also much more basic. He doesn’t throw many kicks, doesn’t use a lot of big movements, and fights at a much more deliberate pace. Salmon can be flat footed & low volume which could be an issue for him in this fight. Salmon will use a wide karate style stance, so he can dart in & out, but he spends a lot of time standing in front of his opponents & waiting.  Salmon is technical southpaw striker. He is very clean with his technique and has big power in his punches. He has a nasty straight-left hand & overhand left. He is always looking for it & controls distance with it well. He has a sick right hook & right uppercut. He will throw a straight-left hand, right hook combination. His check right hook is nasty & he can drop opponents with that as well. He will attack the body with straight punches & hooks. He is very composed & while he usually is always going forward, he’s staying at his range. He cuts the cage off well & is very good at countering. He is very fast with his hand speed & has a good shot selection varying it up well to the body and head. He rarely throws kicks, but he will throw the occasional leg kick & rare body or high kick. He can stick in the pocket & fighters can land counters, but he has shown a very strong chin. In his one career decision loss, it was one of the worst robberies in MMA history. Salmon definitely has power with 4 KO/TKO’s in 6 wins & dropping 7 of his 8 opponents. He was finished for the first time in his career via knockout.

Boston Salmon is not an active grappler. He can be controlled against the cage & fighters can land elbows & knees on him. He does do a decent job of circling off, or reversing and turning his opponent, but he has lost rounds through that in the past. That is also the easiest place to hit him without fear of return, and if he were to get hurt standing I see it happening there or off a break. He has good takedown defense and is always just looking to sprawl & brawl and keep it on the feet. He is training at Xtreme Couture which is a very strong grappling gym, so I’m sure he’s working hard on that aspect of his game. In this fight, I don’t think he will have to deal with many takedown attempts. Salmon has no submissions. Boston Salmon does have more experience fighting in the later rounds, and probably will have the better cardio.

 

Randy Costa

Age: 25

Height: 5’10

Weight: 135

Reach: 73”

Gym: Lauzon MMA

From: Massachusetts

UFC Record: 0-1

Fight Matrix: NR

Last Fought: 6 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: +140

 

Randy Costa suffered his first career loss in his UFC debut. He had a fun back & forth fight with Brandon Davis but was hurt on the feet and then submitted. That was the first match of Costa’s career that made it out of the first minute of the first round. Costa is extremely aggressive & fast. He has fluid in & out movement, and a lot of power. Costa will constantly switch stances, give different angles, and kind of has an odd striking style. It’s hard to read & time. Randy Costa has a nice, snappy jab. He will double and triple up on jabs and uses it to start combinations very well. He will throw jab, hook or overhand combinations. He throws a double jab, right hook to a head kick. He will throw double jab, uppercut, right hooks. Costa has nice lead & pull counter straights from both stances. Costa will look to land the check left hook counter backing up. He is good at slipping shots with head movement & countering with combinations. He will work the body against the fence & has finished fights with body shots. Costa needs space to work his hands. In close range, he holds his hands low & is very hittable. He can get spastic with his movements, and looked uncomfortable in the pocket vs Davis. He was throwing a lot of shots wide, kicks too close & was very hittable. Costa has very nice kicks. He will throw some nice round & front kicks to the body, and dangerous head kicks. Costa throws head kicks in combination. He has nasty round kicks with both legs, and good question mark kicks. Randy Costa’s chin looked a bit questionable vs Davis. He was hurt multiple times & ultimately it led to the finish. Costa stood heavy on his lead leg in his last match & got it chewed up a bit. Costa is definitely dangerous & has power. He has finished all 4 of his wins via KO/TKO.

Randy Costa is not an offensive grappler. Costa will use the clinch to slow things down if he’s getting blitzed but doesn’t really look for takedowns. Costa will look for knees to the body & head in the Thai plum. He did look for a takedown in his last match but was denied easily. Costa’s takedown defense needs a little work. He allows opponents to get in on his legs & get him against the cage. Costa was taken down on the regional scene with a double leg but was able to defend the takedowns of Davis against the cage. When Randy Costa got hurt in his last match, he panic wrestled & was submitted. He allowed Davis to snap him down, circle to the back, and get a no hooks rear naked choke on him. This was the first loss of Costa’s career. Randy Costa did show solid cardio early in round 2 still having speed & explosion. This should be a fun fight as I see it happening on the feet like the Davis fight.

 

I think Boston gets the win here in Boston. I like his overall game more than Costa’s and I think he is the much better boxer. Costa should look to stay at range and try to land kicks. He probably needs the KO here though, even in his home town, because I think the longer this fight goes the more success Boston will have. I think Costa is live for the KO, but Boston should be able to do enough to get the job done on the scorecards if it gets there. I think Boston is going to wear Costa out and finish him in the 3rd round.

On DraftKings, Boston is my preferred play, but I don’t see me having this fight in many lineups. If I make 20 lineups I might only have 2-3 Boston and 1-2 Costa here. I think Boston will be low owned as a $9k favorite and I think he could finish and rack up sig strikes and possible KDs along the way. Costa is in play for GPPs for the KO potential, but I don’t like his chances here so if I was making 10 or less lineups I would just fade him. With 20, I do want a shot or two at that KO chance since I don’t care for the underdogs on this card. I think Boston is in play for cash as well, but I would prefer to get up to Hardy or McCann if I could.

Winner – Boston Salmon via 3rd round (T)KO

 

Kyle Bochniak $8,400 vs Sean Woodson $7,800

Kyle Bochniak

Age: 32

Height: 5’7

Weight: 145

Reach: 70”

Gym: Lauzon MMA

From: Massachusetts

UFC Record: 2-4

Fight Matrix: 186

Last Fought: 10 Months

Last Five: 2-3

Current Streak: L2

Betting Odds: -140

 

Kyle Bochniak returns after a lackluster performance in his last match vs Hakeem Dawodu. Bochniak has lost 3 of 4 fights, and badly needs a win here. This will be his first fight of 2019, and in his hometown. Bochniak has solid fakes, feints, and good movement. He is light on his feet, he has a nice jab, and an accurate straight-right hand. He has a good counter left hook, and he will follow with a right hook or right straight. He puts punches together in the pocket well, and I think that’s his edge on the feet. He has no problem sitting in the pocket & trading power shots and he has a great chin. Bochniak will throw some kicks to all parts of the body, but they aren’t a super effective part of his game. I see pressure being effective in this fight. He needs to close the distance with punch combinations and stay in Woodson’s face. He struggled to get inside in his last fight & got his leg chewed up a bit. Bochniak isn’t a big power guy. He has just 2 KO/TKO’s, and never been finished in his career.

Kyle Bochniak is a good wrestler and does a good job of setting up his takedowns with punches. He likes to close the distance with overhands, and then fake the overhand, and duck under for well-timed double legs. He doesn’t have great finishing ability on the takedowns, but he does a good job of landing punches off the break and reshooting. Kyle has good single leg entries against the cage and will try to dump his opponents. He has solid control in the clinch and will land short shots, but he doesn’t normally engage in the clinch. He has fantastic cardio, a good chin, and I see him being a guy you have to put out cold to stop from coming forward. Bochniak in top position does a good job of getting to the back, or wrestling ride position. He doesn’t do a ton of damage from top position or have the best top control. Bochniak has two rear naked choke submissions. Against Brandon Davis, he was able to land some short shots and win the fight by mixing it up. He needs to do that here, even if it’s just getting in on Woodson against the cage. Bochniak has cardio & will always come in shape ready to fight. He should be motivated fighting in his hometown. Bochniak has never been finished, butis just 2-4 in decisions in the UFC.

 

Sean Woodson

Age: 27

Height: 6’2

Weight: 145

Reach: 79”

Gym: Glory MMA

From: Missouri

UFC Record: 0-0

Fight Matrix: 148

Last Fought: 3 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W6

Betting Odds: +120

 

Sean Woodson had a highlight reel knockout in his fight on the DWCS. He landed a nasty flying knee that put his opponents lights out. Woodson has a massive frame for FW standing 6’2 with a 79” reach. I would almost guarantee he’s the longest fighter in the entire FW & maybe even the LW division. Woodson is a crisp striker with great feints. He is a forward pressure striker, keeps the volume very high, and is accurate. Woodson is a very calm & calculated fighter. He will fight with a bit of a broken rhythm at times. He already holds his hands low which makes it hard to see his punches coming. Woodson will land a punch or combination, relax, breathe, feint and reset, or jump into a combination. This allows him to keep his opponents guessing & on the back foot. Woodson has a nice, long jab, good one-two, and powerful left hook. His pull counter left hand is pretty accurate. He puts combinations together behind his jab very fluidly. Woodson will touch opponents with shots instead of putting full power into shots. He will stick opponents with long, straight punch combos. He will mix in some powerful uppercuts, and hooks. Woodson will feint shots to the head & go to the body with heavy hooks & straights. Woodson is good at staying long & not smothering his work. He will throw some nasty leg kicks, along with front kicks to the body. Woodson has dangerous head kicks he will throw in the pocket. Woodson keeps the volume high and is very good at controlling the center of the cage. He will switch stances to cut off the cage. He picks up as the fight goes on, and really pours it on in the third round. In his fight with Rashard Lovedale, he probably landed a thirty-punch combination against the cage in round 3. Woodson landed a nasty flying knee in his last match that earned him this contract. Training at Glory MMA should have him improving, and he has the frame on the feet to be excellent. Woodson definitely is a volume guy & doesn’t have big power. Woodson can be open to hooks & overhands over the top of his straights if fighters can get inside. He also is pretty flat footed & allows opponents to back him up. He is calm in the pocket, blocking & returning, but allows himself to get clinched up against the cage. Woodson has shown a good chin & is confident being undefeated. He has two KO/TKO’s.

Sean Woodson’s grappling is a bit questionable. Woodson will be offensive in the clinch when he backs opponents up. He will enter the clinch with front knees to the body, along with short punches & elbows. Woodson will duck under for double legs against the cage. Woodson is long & good at posturing up & landing big elbows. In his fight with Rashard Lovelace, he landed a blast double late in the fight also. Woodson isn’t big on fighting on the mat even in top position. He can be landing heavy ground & pound, and just stand up from top position. Woodson does allow himself to be backed up & clinched against the fence. Woodson doesn’t do the best at getting his back off the cage. He also allows opponents in deep on double leg shots. Woodson does have good takedown defense against the cage. He has a wide base & good balance. He will dig underhooks & disengage. Woodson has decent initial takedown defense in space, but Terrence McKinney was able to take him down by using a single leg. Woodson will sprawl well on double legs but can be slow in the transitions & give his back. Terrance McKinney was able to take his back in both round one & two, and probably had over 5 minutes of back control. Sean Woodson was able to turn in in round 2, get-up, and immediately landed a flying knee that closed the show. Woodson definitely needs to improve his defensive wrestling. I feel like Kyle Bochniak will come into this match with a heavy wrestling game plan. Woodson has one career guillotine but isn’t much of a submission threat.

 

Woodson is making his UFC debut here in Bochniak’s backyard. Woodson is going to be 8 inches taller with a 9-inch reach advantage, so I do expect Bochniak to have a wrestling-based game plan and we have seen Woodson struggle with takedown defense. I think Woodson is going to need to keep this fight standing to win but he likely needs to get a knockout because it will be hard to win a decision in Boston, especially if he spends any time on his back.

On DraftKings, Woodson is my preferred play. I don’t want to target Bochniak at his price with the people around him, so I would rather take a shot on Woodson who can win this fight if it stays standing. I don’t mind Woodson in cash games either with this fight having a-205 FGTD line. I think he will have 3 rounds to work with and he is one of the dogs I like more on this card. I think Bochniak is in play if you want, I just don’t think he has much of a ceiling, so I will full fade him with 20 lineups and if I threw in an extra 10 I still might fade.

Winner – Kyle Bochniak via Unanimous Decision

 

Molly McCann $9,400 vs Diana Belbita $6,800

Molly McCann

Age: 29

Height: 5’4

Weight: 125

Reach: 62”

Gym: Next Generation MMA LP

From: England

UFC Record: 2-1

Fight Matrix: 21

Last Fought: 4 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W2

Betting Odds: -600

 

Molly McCann is returning & looking to earn a three fight UFC winning streak with a victory over UFC debutant Diana Belbita. McCann has put together solid performances after dropping her debut & is the most confident she has been in her career. Molly prefers to strike. She has a decent jab, and good straight-right hand. She will throw a lot of feints & sets her shots up well. She has a good left hook, straight-right hand combination. She will throw a jab, overhand right, left hook. She likes throwing rear uppercut, left hooks. She will throw fade away left hooks. She attacks the body with straight punches & hooks. She walks opponents down, keeps heavy pressure on opponents & unloads with longer punching combinations when she’s against the cage. She is hittable herself & not a great athlete. When she wings her overhand or hook she cannot move her head and can get caught with straight counter punches. She will fake the lead hand and come back with straight-right hands.  She will throw front kicks to the body to close the distance. She will mix in elbows and knees to the body. She can mix in some spinning attacks; like spinning back kicks and spinning backfists. She is brash, confident and likes to talk in her fights and try to goad her opponents into a brawl. She has ok head movement at times on the outside, but when she throws, she keeps her head right on center line. She does a decent job of cutting of the cage and not chasing while staying far enough away to deny the clinch attempts. She has ok power in both hands and can hurt fighters with her punches. She has 4 KO/TKO’s and is durable never being finished by TKO herself.

Molly McCann is definitely working to improve her game. In her first fight in the UFC she was embarrassed. She was taken down, gave up her back & was choked unconscious in her home country. That seemed to light a fire under her to really improve that area of her game. She showed a nice single leg takedown against Cachoeira & almost found the submission. She was able to get a couple takedowns against Ariane Lipski as well. McCann has 4 takedowns in her last two UFC fights. She was looking for arm triangles & armbars, and I feel she could possibly submit Belbita. Molly is very aggressive with strikes & has hard ground & pound. In this fight, she should try to mix it up. McCann has yet to find a submission in MMA yet, and has been submitted one time. McCann is a dog, her cardio is a bit questionable, but she will never give up or quit.

 

Diana Belbita

Age: 23

Height: 5’7

Weight: 125

Reach: 68.5”

Gym: Victoria Moreni

From: Romania

UFC Record: 0-0

Fight Matrix: NR

Last Fought: 5 Months

Last Five: 4-

Current Streak: W4

Betting Odds: +450

 

Diana Belbita enters her UFC debut as a massive underdog. Belbita is an experienced fighter at 13-4. She has fought in some big promotions such as KSW, but her opposition level is not good. In her last 5 wins only 1 of the 5 opponents had a pro win. Only 3 opponents out of the 13 Belbita’s defeated have had a winning record. Belbita also has a submission loss to Ariane Lipski who Molly McCann just defeated. I was not very impressed with Belbita anywhere. Her striking is probably the strongest part of her game. Belbita doesn’t have the best footwork, and is not very athletic, but she does try to walk opponents into shots. Diana will throw some leg & oblique kicks. Diana has a nice jab, and good left hook. Belbita will throw a one-two to a body kick blitz combo. She will throw some front kicks to the body. Belbita will close the distance with wild hooks & overhands. Belbita will throw straight & hook combos in the pocket. She doesn’t move her head at all, and gets tagged herself, but stays in there. Belbita will end combinations with knees to the body or head.  She will throw herself off balance & completely out of position & becomes very hittable. Belbita has slow feet & fighters can back her up very easily. In close range, her defense is very bad and she’s super hittable. Belbita gets tired in fights & slows down with her hand speed also. Belbita has finished 6 opponents with strikes. She has never been finished with strikes & is tough & durable.

Diana Belbita will try to mix it up with the grappling but is very low level on the mat. Belbita has a solid Thai plum & will throw some knees to the head & body. She doesn’t have any takedowns really other than catching kicks, and hip throws. Her hip throw does not look very high level, and I have seen opponents easily take her back off it. When Belbita can land the hip toss, she is aggressive, moving to mount & going for the finish. She doesn’t have good top control, and her finishes are against low level opponents. Belbita’s takedown defense is terrible. It doesn’t take much to bring her to the ground both in the clinch or with singles & doubles. When she is out on her back, she doesn’t have good get-ups, and allows opponents to transition to dominant positions with ease. She doesn’t have good submission defense, or really any game off her back. Belbita does have some armbar finishes off her back including in her last match. Belbita has 4 submissions & has lost via submission 3 times.

 

I think McCann is going to be too much for the newcomer here. McCann is going to be the best fighter she has ever faced, and she is going to bring a pace and pressure that she isn’t used to seeing. I see McCann bullying Belbita here for 3-rounds and maybe even picking up a finish along the way.

McCann is going to be a core play on DraftKings for me. She could score highly in a decision win and has already had two wins with 100 DK points or more in her two decisions so far. If she racks up all those points and gets a finish, she could have the highest ceiling on the card. I have zero interest in Belbita here, so I will full fade her and would fade even with 150 LUs. McCann is playable in all formats though and I want her where I can afford her. I will have most of my lineups include her or Hardy, but I do prefer her a bit more at possible lower ownership.

Winner – Molly McCann via Unanimous Decision

 

Manny Bermudez $8,700 vs Charles Rosa $7,500

Manny Bermudez

Age: 25

Height: 5’10

Weight: 145

Reach: 71.5”

Gym: South Shore Sportfighting

From: Massachusetts

UFC Record: 3-1

Fight Matrix: 127

Last Fought: 2 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: -145

 

Manny Bermudez is fighting for the first time in his career after a loss. He was on the wrong end of a decision vs Casey Kenney. After two failed weight cuts in a row, Bermudez has decided to move back up to 145 lbs. Bermudez has weighed in at 140 lbs for his last two BW fights, and really struggled with the weight cut. He should be less drained & maybe show a different fighter up a weight class. Bermudez has fought many times at 145 lbs and won’t be undersized for the division. Both fighters in this matchup are Boston guys. Manny Bermudez is a submission artist with improving striking skills. On the feet, Bermudez is all about forward pressure & boxing. He isn’t the most athletic or fluid guy though, so he can take a lot of shots entering range. I do feel Bermudez may be quicker at 145, but Rosa has much faster feet. Bermudez has a good straight-right hand. He will throw a left hook, straight-right hand combination. He will throw some hook combinations in close range. Bermudez doesn’t throw many kicks or have much variety in his striking. He doesn’t have great hand speed either, but when he lands they are heavy shots. He sat down Davey Grant with a straight-right hand and was affecting Casey Kenney with almost every shot he landed. At 145 lbs it will be interesting to see if he has that same power in his punches. Bermudez will throw some nice front knees up the middle. Manny does stand very tall & can walk into shots with his chin high. When he gets hit with flurries, he can have the habit of trying to grab instead of keeping his hands up. He has a good chin & is willing to eat shots & keep the pressure on. Bermudez on the feet basically wants to back fighters towards the fence so he can shoot. Bermudez has only one TKO finish. He has never been finished himself.

Manny Bermudez is a dangerous submission grappler with 11 submissions in 14 victories. Manny Bermudez is very strong & has good clinch takedowns. He will get in on a trip takedown and use that to immediately transition to the back. Bermudez is also dangerous in the clinch with standing guillotines and flying triangles. Bermudez has a nasty top game and transitions with ease to the mount. He does a great job of turking the legs & moving to mount. He will take the back & has a good rear naked choke. Manny Bermudez also has a fantastic guard. He will throw up triangles, armbars, gogo, omaplatas, and has extremely fast hips. He has no fear of pulling guard or jumping on submissions that put him on his back. In Bermudez’s last fight he was put on his back & controlled by Casey Kenney. Kenney is a good wrestler, but a natural flyweight so it was a little alarming he was able to control Bermudez on the mat. Kenney was able to use body kicks & throws in the clinch to land in side control or half guard, negating the full guard of Bermudez. Kenney was able to land a hip toss in the first round & control in top position for multiple minutes in the first round. Kenney respected Bermudez’s submission ability so he stayed tight & didn’t attempt to improve position or attack much. Kenney did attack with a fairly close rear naked choke in the second round. Bermudez has very flexible legs and is able to take the back from odd positions. He has only one career rear naked choke. He will use the cage to sweep to top position as well. Bermudez gets most of his submissions via guillotine or triangle. Bermudez did show good cardio in his last fight, but he was outhustled in positions on the mat. I feel his ability to scramble & keep top position will be better at 145 with bigger, slower guys. Casey Kenney was small & able to squirm & sneak out of things while moving very quickly.

 

Charles Rosa

Age: 33

Height: 5’9

Weight: 145

Reach: 69”

Gym: American Top Team

From: Massachusetts

UFC Record: 2-3

Fight Matrix: NR

Last Fought: 2 Years 6 Months

Last Five: 2-3

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: +125

 

Charles Rosa is making his return after quite a long layoff. Rosa has now recovered from several severe injuries & feels he will now be able to fight to his full potential. Rosa is a Boston guy, but has been training at American Top Team for years. Rosa is confident with the injuries healed he can make a run & it will need to start vs Manny Bermudez. Rosa will be searching for his first win since January 2016. Rosa is a karate striker on the feet. He has a wide stance & moves in & out very quickly. Rosa is constantly switching stances & giving different looks. Rosa has nice inside, outside low kicks. He will throw oblique kicks to the legs. Rosa will throw outside low kicks to round kick to the body, along with front leg sidekicks to the body. Rosa has a good one-two, and a very nice straight-left & right hand. He will switch stances after he lands the straight usually. Rosa is very fast closing the distance due to his karate style. Rosa will throw a nice left hook, overhand right combination. He can get wild with his punches at times, duck his head and enter range with his hands down. He will wing overhands & hooks in the pocket with power, but it also leaves him susceptible to counters. Rosa has some nice spinning kicks both to the body & head. He will throw some jumping round house kicks & spinning backfists. Rosa is good when he is going backwards using movement & controlling distance with his counters. If fighters can cut him off & force him to box or catch his with counters as he enters he struggles. He doesn’t have good boxing in close range and gets very wild & hittable. Rosa doesn’t throw with a ton of power, and he can struggle to back fighters up with his counters. Shane Burgos struggles early on with the movement, but Burgos started just taking shots to give shots & took him out. Rosa got caught in an exchange & then taken out with a flurry of punches. The ref stopped the fight with Rosa still standing, and he protested immediately. Rosa is very tough with a great chin. That was the only time he’s been finished in his career. Rosa has just two KO/TKO’s & isn’t a power striker.

Charles Rosa is a good wrestler grappler, but he should try to use it in reverse in this match. Rosa likes to use combinations to setup takedown shots or get in on body locks. He has good takedowns against the cage. Rosa can shoot bad takedowns & lose scrambles ending up on bottom. He also gets put in triangles a lot. Rosa is good at defending the submission, passing the legs, and getting the back or to the wrestling ride position. Rosa’s top control isn’t the greatest. Fighters are able to sweep him, along with scramble up from bottom. Rosa is relentless with his wrestling in fights & will get multiple takedowns in a round. In this fight, I would not try to wrestle much because I feel he could get caught. Rosa is a black belt under Ricardo Libório so he isn’t a scrub on the ground himself, but not dynamic like Bermudez. Rosa does do a good job of catching front chokes in scrambles. He has a lot of different chokes he can pull off such as guillotines, anacondas, darces & Peruvian neckties. Rosa can be taken down himself. He blitzes in a lot & Kyle Bochniak was able to time some double legs. He also can be taken down in the clinch. Rosa is good off his back. He will throw up submissions immediately to create scrambles to stand up. Rosa has several armbar submissions in his career along with a triangle choke. Rosa has 7 career submissions. He has never been submitted. Rosa is going to be the bigger guy most likely, he has competed as high as welterweight. One of Rosa’s biggest assets is his will & cardio. He is willing to push through the fatigue state & usually wins round 3. He has strong cardio & just wants it.

 

Rosa is a black belt in BJJ and Bermudez is only a purple belt, but I still think Manny has the edge on the ground here. Rosa is probably going to look to stay at range and spam kicks here and if he can do that for 3-rounds, he would probably get a decision win in his home town. I think we will see some grappling here though and I think Manny will be the one going for takedowns. Rosa has never been submitted but I will take Bermudez to be the first to do it.

On DraftKings, Manny is my preferred play here and I think he has 100-point potential. I think he is in play in all formats, but I do prefer him for GPPs hoping he get the fight to the mat and gets a sub. I will probably have 30% or so of him in my lineups and I have built cash LUs I like with him. Rosa is in play for GPPs because he is a live dog in this fight. I don’t see him having much of a ceiling here, but I think he could get 10x in a win and on a card where I don’t like underdogs, that is in play for me. I am going to look to spread my underdog exposure around and I will try to fade a few favorites to get leverage on the favorites I do like, such as Manny here.

Winner – Manny Bermudez via 2nd round Submission

 

Deron Winn $8,200 vs Darren Stewart $8,000

Deron Winn

Age: 30

Height: 5’5

Weight: 185

Reach: 71”

Gym: AKA

From: California

UFC Record: 1-0

Fight Matrix: 73

Last Fought: 4 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W6

Betting Odds: -125

 

Mini DC Deron Winn makes his second UFC start in Boston vs Darren Stewart. The 5’5 Deron Winn is probably the smallest 185 in the division & it will be interesting how he fairs as the competition level rises. On the feet, Winn is extremely explosive & powerful. He is light on his feet, and pretty hard to hit at range. Winn will walk opponents down, work behind his jab & feints. He will use level change feints to freeze opponents & come over the top with an overhand or right hook. Winn will throw jab, overhand rights or jab, uppercuts. He will double jab into range. When he lands a combo & has an opponent backed up, he will flurry with hooks & straights to the body and head. Winn is good at touching his opponent with the jabs or some straights to get his range & then sitting down on a couple shots in combination. He was able to constantly back Eric Spicely up & put long combinations together. He will throw nasty left hook, straight-rights. He will throw the left hook both to the body & head. Winn is good at slipping & returning in the pocket and has a nice pull counter right hand. Winn doesn’t throw many kicks, but he will throw some occasional leg kicks & a tricky head kick. Deron can be wild & throw some big, looping hooks & overhands that put him off balance & gives opponents counter opportunities. He also tends to stand right in front of opponents throwing these long combinations, and fighters are able to come back with counters. Winn also threw so much volume in his last match. I believe he threw & landed the most punches ever landed by a MW in a three-round fight. Due to this Winn did get tired in round 3 and needs to pace himself a little bit better. Winn doesn’t have that big one-shot power. He has 4 TKO’s but has gone to back to back decisions after taking a step-up in competition. Winn showed he could take it & had a good chin in his last match, but Darren Stewart is a different animal when it comes to power. Winn definitely can’t be taking as many shots as he did vs Spicely.

Deron Winn has some of the better wrestling credentials in the sport. He didn’t really show any of his wrestling off due to the style matchup with Eric Spicely; but make no mistake about it, he will be looking to put Stewart on his back. Deron Winn was a US National team member, 2-time NCAA Junior College National Champion, and 3-time NCAA All American. Deron Winn actually defeated J’den Cox in college who is one of the best wrestlers in United States history. Winn did show where his size could maybe cause him issues in the grappling realm. Eric Spicely was able to consistently get the Muay Thai plum on the much shorter man & land short punches & big knees to the body and head. Winn was able to consistently back Spicely up with combinations & I feel when Spicely was just covering up against the fence, Winn could have level changed into a takedown easily. I just think he respected the Jiu-Jitsu of Spicely & was comfortable on the feet. In this fight, I see him using those combinations to back Stewart up, & then ducking under into single & double leg slams. I see him trying to keep the pace high & mix it up. Winn sets up his double legs with overhands very well & can slam opponents. In the clinch, he is very strong, and can land throws or trips from there as well. Winn needs to improve his top control & Jiu-Jitsu. I do think he will be tough to submit. He got out of a guillotine vs Tom Lawlor, but his top control isn’t great. He allows opponents to scramble back up pretty easily. He does do a good job of getting the front head lock position & snapping his opponents back down. He will work from the wrestling ride position & doesn’t really look to take the back. In this fight even if Winn can’t hold Stewart down, he needs to take him down & threaten with grappling. If these guys are both tired & it becomes a battle of wills, I see Winn taking it all day. Winn isn’t a submission threat with zero in his career. In this fight, he won’t have to deal with someone who’s good off their back so I expect him to try to work his top game a lot more. Winn got tired in his last match, but he threw so much volume & was still pushing until the final bell. I don’t think Stewart can fight at that high of a pace.

 

Darren Stewart

Age: 28

Height: 6’0

Weight: 185

Reach: 74”

Gym: MMA Clinic

From: England

UFC Record: 3-4-1

Fight Matrix: 53

Last Fought: 4 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: W1

Betting Odds: +105

 

Darren Stewart has won three of his last four UFC fights, and looks to be finding his mojo. Stewart’s fight with Bevin Lewis was lackluster, but he got the victory which is what matters. Stewart has been talking shit to Winn and is confident he can take him out & build his name off him. Stewart is going to be the significantly bigger fighter, and first knockout artist Winn has faced in his career. Stewart hits hard & when he lands he puts people out. Stewart had been flat footed for a lot of his UFC fights, but his movement was much better in his last match. He didn’t let as much offense go, but he was pressing forward, while staying light on his feet, and obviously looking to slide back & counter. He was moving in & out much better and avoiding shots. His opponent was extremely tentative & barely threw any strikes, which I don’t see Winn doing. Stewart is a very athletic, explosive guy. He is mostly a counter striker & not very high volume. He has a very nice, powerful jab, and heavy low kicks. He knocked Eric Spicely down with the jab and took Bevon Lewis off his feet with several leg kicks. Stewart has a nice pull counter straight-right hand & always is looking for the counter right hook, left hook combination. Stewart has a very nice lead uppercut, right hook combination. Stewart can sometimes mix in spinning backfists & jumping kicks. His power & speed seem to back some fighters off & make them hesitant to throw. Stewart is much lower volume than Winn & fights at a more deliberate pace. That’s going to be a big key to the fight. Winn also stood in the pocket with Spicely which if he does with Stewart, I think that’s Stewart’s best chance at victory. Stewart has to be able to control the pace of the fight with his power. Stewart has won 7 fights via KO/TKO.

Darren Stewart isn’t nearly the wrestler that Deron Winn is. This isn’t a wrestling match though. Stewart has proven to be extremely dangerous in the clinch, which is something Winn struggled with vs Spicely. Stewart has big short-range power, and devastating elbows & knees. He put Charles Byrd out with a nasty elbow. Stewart will need to be opportunistic in this fight & if he sees an opportunity in the clinch, take it. Stewart can be controlled in the clinch & touched up himself. When he fought Edmen Shahbazyan, Edmen was able to control him with a tight waist against the fence for multiple minutes. Edmen was able to duck under the big swinging shots of Stewart, clinch up & push him to the fence. Stewart smothers his work & always finds himself in the clinch. He is too comfortable being controlled in the over/under position or against the fence. Stewart can be taken down with singles & doubles against the cage & in space. He is pretty good at standing up with the help of the cage & is hard to hold down. Stewart can give his back to stand up and was submitted by Karl Roberson with a rear naked choke. Stewart was in a war with Julian Marquez where he panic wrestled & got caught in a guillotine & submitted. Stewart can’t allow himself to get backed up & taken down or controlled against the cage in this fight. He needs to try to disengage & return to the center. He can attempt low level moves like switches & kimuras to reverse position, and he should abandon all that. If this fight goes to the mat, stand right back up, disengage & try to tire Winn out. He needs to look for big shots in the clinch but try to spend the fight on the outside controlling distance with his jab & low kicks.

 

Winn should look to wrestle in this fight and if he does then I like him to get the win. He looked good on the feet in his debut, but he was hit way too much but is a much lower level striker. If he wants to strike with Stewart, then he could definitely get knocked out. His last opponent was better on the mat though so that’s why I think he looked to strike there. I think he looks for takedowns early and often here and the longer the fight goes, the more he will wear out Stewart and take away from his power.

I like Winn a lot here and he will be one of my core fighters this week. He didn’t even wrestle in his first fight and still scored 115 DK points in a decision win. He should be looking to wrestle here, and I think he could get multiple takedowns in each round and racking up sig strikes on the ground along the way. He could even finish and have one of the higher ceilings on the card at a mid-range salary. Stewart is in play for the KO here, but I won’t have much of him and would only use him as a hedge play because I want 50% or more exposure to Winn here. I like him in all formats and I hope he is coming in with a wrestling-based game plan.

Winner – Deron Winn via Unanimous Decision

 

Maycee Barber $8,300 vs Gillian Robertson $7,900

Maycee Barber

Age: 21

Height: 5’5

Weight: 125

Reach: 65”

Gym:  Factory X Muay Thai

From: Wisconsin

UFC Record: 2-0

Fight Matrix: 14

Last Fought: 7 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W7

Betting Odds: -135

 

Maycee Barber continues her quest to become the youngest UFC champion of all time with her 3rd UFC fight in Boston. Barber is 7-0 with 6 finishes including finishing both of her UFC wins. Barber did fight two girls who were SW in her first two fights & this is the first true FLW she is fighting. Barber has also been talking a lot about Paige VanZant & may be overlooking Robertson a bit. Barber is very aggressive. She is a developing striker but has nice kicks and can switch stances. She will throw a nice check left hook & decent overhand or straight-right. She will switch stances and has a nice straight-left hand down the middle. She will throw a rear uppercut, left hook combination. She has a strong right hook.  She will go high with kicks as well, and she’s always coming forward and putting the pressure on fighters. Her kicks are the best part of her striking game. She throws a lot of inside leg kicks, front and sidekicks to the face and body. She will throw question mark kicks. She will throw nice round kicks to the head. She will throw them with both legs. She follows her round kick with a straight-right hand. She does a good job of feinting and faking before closing the distance. She doesn’t have good hands & can really telegraph her punches, making her easy to counter. She isn’t the greatest defensive striker. She doesn’t move her head & holds her chin high. She will also lean back to defend shots instead of using footwork. That was really shown in her last match where she dropped & got hurt multiple times with punches in round one. Barber just is undeterred though & hits hard herself. She will continue to come forward, eat shots to give her own until she breaks her opponents. That will be effective vs Robertson & if she hurts Gillian on the feet, I see her most likely getting the finish in the clinch. Her striking really still isn’t that good to me though, and she won’t be able to be as open against someone who’s solely looking to take her down. Barber definitely has big power and can knock girls out. Barber has 4 TKO victories in a row.

Maycee Barber is a good grappler herself. She is nasty in the clinch & very powerful. She will move girls around easily & land big elbows & knees to the body & head. The fighters she’s faced have all been strawweights & this is her first flyweight opponent, so we will see if she’s able to dominate Robertson like that. I do feel she will have an advantage in the clinch. Barber isn’t super active for takedowns, but she will get some clinch takedowns at times. When she takes top position, she is very aggressive with ground & pound and looks to take the back & get rear naked chokes. Maycee Barber’s takedown defense hasn’t been tested in the UFC. On the regional scene she did struggle with the wresting & top control of Mallory Martin. Martin was able to take her down with doubles & body locks, along with controlling on top for long periods. Barber did show a good guard, and solid sweeps. She was able to attack with some triangles & armbars and does have an armbar victory. Barber needs to stay off her back in this fight by any means necessary. Barber trains in elevation so she has great cardio. She has 2 submissions in her career.

 

Gillian Robertson

Age: 24

Height: 5’2

Weight: 125

Reach: 66”

Gym: American Top Team

From: Canada

UFC Record: 4-1

Fight Matrix: 17

Last Fought: 3 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W2

Betting Odds: +115

 

Gillian Robertson will be looking for her 5th UFC finish in her fight with Maycee Barber. Robertson has the most finishes in the Woman’s FLW division and has proven to be very dangerous on the mat. Robertson was able to earn her first TKO in her last match over a Jiu-Jitsu black belt who was on steroids. Robertson is a grappler & her striking is very much developing. She doesn’t have much striking to speak of. She just really likes to circle, fake & feint, and try to get in on a single leg. She will throw a one-two & a jab. Her hand speed is not good & she doesn’t sit down and put power on her shots yet. Due to that fighters are able to absorb or slip & return with more significant shots. She does do a good job of feinting the straight-right & ducking under. She isn’t the most explosive athlete and going to need to really work on her technical striking to progress further in the rankings. She is very hittable. She has improved the fluidity of her punches a bit, but overall still lacks power. When she gets hit and walked down, she doesn’t pose a big enough threat on the feet to back her opponents off her. She has a good chin and will not get discouraged. She will eat shots to get inside. Robertson has never been finished by strikes standing & was just finished once by TKO on the ground. She has no career KO/TKO’s.

We all know what’s up with Gillian Robertson, she’s going to want to bring this to the mat. Robertson isn’t going to look to be offensive with her striking. She will use her movement, throw a few punches & kicks & then look for the takedown. She has gotten better with her fluidity & walks opponents into takedowns better. Robertson has very good takedowns actually. She has an awesome single leg which is probably her best takedown. She will attack with doubles & body locks as well. She is very good at driving through on the takedown while at the same time using her leg to trip her opponent to the mat. Robertson has one of the best top games for a female I have seen in MMA. She keeps very heavy top pressure, has excellent passing ability & nasty ground & pound. She will trap wrists and throw down big elbows & hammerfists. She will move to side control and likes to get the crucifix position. She will also hunt for kimuras and throw elbows to the body. Robertson is extremely active with her ground & pound in top position, and when she took mount in her last match she finished the fight with ground & pound. Robertson is also excellent at using those shots to force opponents to give the back where she has an excellent rear naked choke. She is also very good at locking in an armbar if she is shaken off the back. Robertson will attack with leg locks as well. If she gets in top position, anyone including Barber will need to be on their Ps & Qs. Robertson has finished 6 of her 7 wins all on the mat. She has 5 submissions & one TKO. We haven’t seen much of Gillian off her back recently and it will be interesting to see if it’s on par with her top game. If she is very good off her back as well, that could help her defeat Barber. In her fight on TUF with Barb Honchak she was finished with ground & pound. Robertson has not been out of round two in the UFC.

 

Barber is the youngest fighter on the UFC roster and she has a lot of hype behind her. She looks like the real deal to me and she is going to be improving each time we see her. Robertson is on a roll herself winning 4 of her last 5 fights all by finishes. She can win this fight if she can land takedowns and work her top game. I just think Maycee will be too strong for her to consistently get takedowns and I think she is going to be much better than Gillian in the striking department as well.

This is a great fight for GPPs on both sides. They both have scored highly in all their wins and they are right in the mid-range of pricing so 100+ in a win would put them on the nuts lineup. Vegas has a -215 FDGTD line so if they are right, I want to be close to all-in on this fight and hope to have the right combo with the winner of this fight having ~100 points. I prefer Barber here and will have at least double the ownership on her that I do on Gillian. We haven’t seen Barber on her back yet though and if Gillian can get her there she might be able to finish. Barber will come with more ownership from the field as well so Gillian at lower ownership would be big in GPPs if she won. I like Barber and I am on the hype train, so I think she is playable in all formats, but this is a fight we should target in half or more of our GPP lineups.

Winner – Maycee Barber via Unanimous Decision

 

Jonathan Pearce $8,500 vs Joe Lauzon $7,700

Jonathan Pearce

Age: 27

Height: 5’11

Weight: 155

Reach: 71.5”

Gym: Fight Ready

From: Tennessee

UFC Record: 0-0

Fight Matrix: 275

Last Fought: 2 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W5

Betting Odds: -155

 

Jonathan Pearce will be making his UFC debut & getting a big opportunity. He will be facing a legend in Joe Lauzon & getting the chance to jump right onto the scene with a win over a big name. Lauzon is on the tail end of his career, hasn’t fought in a long time, and if there is any time to fight him, now would be the best. Pearce doesn’t seem very technical, but he likes to come forward & bang. He will talk shit & throws a ton of volume. He has decent straight punches but very nice hooks in close range. He has big power & can change fights with one punch. Pearce throws a lot of leg kicks along with front & round kicks to the body. He will attack the head with round kicks. He is always moving forward & pushing the pace. His defense is not good, he is very hittable & just plods forward like a zombie. He has a great chin & will take one to give one. He will throw solid knees up the middle, head kicks & front kicks to the face. He is a wild man & has an indomitable spirit. Pearce overextends on punches though & smothers his work. He puts himself in positions he shouldn’t be & is hittable when he doesn’t need to be. Pearce has 7 KO/TKO’s including 4 in a row. He has never been finished & his durability, power & pressure will be what he uses to try to win this fight.

Pearce is going to be trying to use his wrestling in reverse in this matchup. Pearce looks extremely strong & will manhandle opponents. He will get huge slams & throws fighters around like rag dolls when he gets his hands connected. On top, he will throw brutal ground & pound looking to finish the fight. He likes to get the wrestling ride position & has good control there. He doesn’t look for submissions much, instead just beating people up. I have not seen any video of Pearce off his back, but he has been submitted two times. He cannot grapple with Lauzon as that’s Lauzons’ only chance at victory. Pearce has been submitted twice & has one career submission. He has great cardio & that’s a huge asset in this fight. He needs to push a high pace.

 

Joe Lauzon

Age: 35

Height: 5’10

Weight: 155

Reach: 71”

Gym: Lauzon MMA

From: Massachusetts

UFC Record: 14-12

Fight Matrix: NR

Last Fought: 1 Year 6 Months

Last Five: 1-4

Current Streak: W3

Betting Odds: +135

 

The legend Joe Lauzon returns after an 18-month layoff to fight in his home state of Massachusetts. Lauzon’s last two performances have been very hard to watch. He seems to have really lost a step along with his durability. Lauzon is not a very good striker. His hand speed has diminished notably, and he doesn’t have good defense. Lauzon will plod forward with straight punch combinations and hooks inside. Lauzon will throw some kicks but not very many. Lauzon really uses his striking to pressure & get it to the mat. His defense is porous. He doesn’t have fast feet & tends to cover up instead of moving his feet when he’s hit. It leaves him susceptible to body shots which destroy his cardio. Chris Gruetzmacher was able to hand fight with Lauzon, throw some head shots to get him to cover up & then dug to the body. Lauzon was stopped on the stool in his fight with Gruetzmacher because he really was just a punching bag. He has been TKO’d in his last two matches. Lauzon has taken a lot of damage & been finished with strikes 6 times. Lauzon has 8 KO/TKO’s but most of those are on the ground.

Joe Lauzon is one of the best submission artists in UFC history. He is extremely aggressive with his Jiu-Jitsu & always hunting for the sub. Lauzon has very good body locks & takedowns against the cage. He will shoot takedowns in space but is not very proficient with them. When Lauzon gets top position, he goes to work immediately. He is a great passer & will constantly be moving to different positions while hunting subs. Lauzon will also mix in heavy elbows & punches that can cut fighters open. Lauzon loves to take the back & has a very nice mount. He will search for kimuras and straight arm locks from side control. He is submission over position & has no problem jumping on an armbar when he sees one or rolling for leg locks. Lauzon can be taken down, but he is excellent off his back. He has a sick butterfly guard & using over & underhooks to sweep very well. He sets up guillotines, triangles & armbars in his guard exquisitely. Lauzon sets submissions up in scrambles, just check out his triangle against Jamie Varner. He is one of the most dangerous guys on the ground in UFC history. Lauzon has 18 submissions including 8 in the UFC. Lauzon hasn’t earned a submission since 2012. Lauzon has been submitted 3 times. His cardio has been atrocious in recent fights & he is usually a first round or bust fighter now.

 

I wouldn’t be surprised to see this be Lauzon’s retirement fight with a win or a loss. This fight card is in his hometown of Boston and that is why he is on the card. He is one of the most exciting fighters of all-time, but I don’t think he has much left in the tank. I am sure he will be extra pumped for this fight and he could get takedowns and win this fight against a debut fighter in Pearce. I think Pearce is going to be way too much for him on the feet though and if he can keep the fight standing he is probably going to win and finish. I don’t see this going to the judges either way though. I think it’s either Lauzon via sub or Pearce via TKO.

Another great GPP fight here. We have a FDGTD line of -285 and I agree with it. I think its Lauzon early or Pearce in any round. I don’t see Lauzon having 3-rounds in him though so if he doesn’t finish early I think he gets TKO’d in the 2nd or 3rd. If Lauzon can get the early finish, he will be on the optimal lineup and I want exposure to him for that reason. Especially with this card being in Boston. Pearce is a guy I will look to target a lot though and I like his price for the type of war we should get here. I think he is playable in all formats, but Lauzon is GPP only. I do prefer this fight for GPPs all around but there are some Pearce cash builds I like.

Winner – Jonathan Pearce via 2nd round (T)KO

 

Greg Hardy $9,300 vs Ben Sosoli $6,900

Greg Hardy

Age: 31

Height: 6’5

Weight: 266

Reach: 80.5”

Gym: American Top Team

From: Florida

UFC Record: 2-1

Fight Matrix: 106

Last Fought: 3 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W2

Betting Odds: -310

 

Greg Hardy has bounced back from his debut loss with back to back knockout victories. Hardy finished Juan Adams in 45 seconds in his last match & is extremely confident. He is taking another small step up in competition against former DWCS & TUF competitor Ben Sosoli. Everyone knows who Hardy is & what he is going in there to do, he wants to knock you out quickly. He is a massive guy & maybe the best athlete in the division. On the feet, Hardy isn’t just a bull, he is getting much better with his technique. Hardy uses a lot of feints & fakes along with forward pressure. He is an intimidating presence & has been able to control the center against every opponent he’s ever faced. Hardy explodes into range very quickly, has good hand speed, along with having a long reach. He will have a 6.5” reach advantage in this match. Hardy has a nice jab, and good one-two. He will throw the jab to the body. He has nice leg kicks. His right hand has a ton of power. He will throw a nice straight-right hand both to the body & head. He has a very nice left hook. He will throw a left hook, right uppercut combination. Hardy likes to back fighters to the cage where he can flurry and take them out. He will throw head kicks to the side opponents try to exit & throw nice front knees to the body. Hardy does look hittable at times. He will overextend on his punches and can exit tall. Hardy can lean back with his chin in the air. We have yet to see Hardy get rocked or hit with a shot that backs him up yet in MMA. Hardy lost via DQ in his match with Allen Crowder. He lacked composure & threw a blatant illegal knee that ended the fight. In reality, we really haven’t seen much on the feet from Hardy. 4 of his 6 wins have been over in less than one minute. He has finished all five of his wins via knockout in the first round.

Greg Hardy is not looking to grapple. I don’t expect Hardy to shoot many takedowns in his UFC career. Hardy obviously is a great athlete with fast hips, good balance & base. When fighters shoot takedowns on him, he is good at sprawling & hammering punches into his opponent’s face. Hardy has a nice whizzer he will use to counter takedowns. Hardy has short range power & has put multiple fighters out with hammerfists & short punches as they try to get in on his legs or in the clinch. In his fight with Allen Crowder, he did get a knee caught, and taken down. Hardy didn’t look very knowledgeable off his back. He stayed calm but allowed Crowder to transition easily & even get the crucifix position. Hardy is very explosive & used his athleticism to buck out of bad positions but didn’t show great technique on bottom. Hardy had some time in top position in that fight as well. He was able to show good submission defense, pass the legs, and almost got to side control. He didn’t show good top control and allowed Crowder to belly down & get-up. In Hardy’s last match, he sprawled on a single leg, and landed about 30 unanswered shots before the fight was stopped. Adams didn’t move at all & basically just gave him the win. I don’t think Hardy will have to worry about takedowns in this fight.

 

Ben Sosoli

Age: 29

Height: 6’0

Weight: 265.5

Reach: 74”

Gym: Resilience Training Centre

From: Australia

UFC Record: 0-0

Fight Matrix: 139

Last Fought: 2 Months

Last Five: 3-1-1

Current Streak: 1NC

Betting Odds: +255

 

Ben Sosoli is jumping in on short notice here in a massive spot. This is by far the highest profile matchup of his career & UFC debut. Sosoli looked on his way to getting a knockout on the Contender Series in his last fight, but the fight was stopped due to an eye poke. Ben Sosoli is a southpaw & I believe the first southpaw Hardy has faced in his career. Sosoli is flat footed & holds his hands completely down. He has a great chin & wants opponents to get inside & throw at him so he can counter. He has devastating power in his hands even in close range. He will land nasty hooks & overhands in the pocket along with nice uppercuts. He will take a shot to give one & if he lands, he puts fighters lights out. He has real one punch power. Sosoli starts a lot of combinations with jabs and has a very nice straight-right hand. He likes to use a right hook, straight-left hand combination. He has a nice uppercut & is always looking for the overhand left. Sosoli is very good at finding his left hook in close range & knocking opponents out. Sosoli does pressure forward & comes to throw down, so this could be a very entertaining fight. Sosoli was doing a good job of getting inside & landing big shots in his last match before it was stopped He doesn’t really use kicks much. I have seen Sosoli hurt in fights because his defense isn’t good. I would say he maybe has better defense than Hardy though. Sosoli has 6 KO/TKO’s in 7 wins. Sosoli has never been finished.

Ben Sosoli has bad grappling & virtually nonexistent takedown defense if fighters attack the legs. He is strong & stout and has ok takedown defense against upper body & clinch takedowns. He was taken down at will on his fight on TUF & showed nothing off his back. He doesn’t shoot takedowns himself & this is going to be a standup fight. I don’t think he will have too much to worry about with the wrestling in this fight. Sosoli has never been submitted & has no submissions. Sosoli is the more experienced fighter who won’t come in here intimidated.

 

The UFC keeps feeding Hardy no named fighters hoping to build up his name. If he loses again to one of these guys it is going to look really bad, but I think they probably get the win from him that they are hoping for here. This fight should stay standing and Hardy is going to be the quicker, more athletic guy and I think he lands the big shot first. Sosoli is taking this fight on short notice, so I don’t think he will have the cardio edge and this should be a fight they are both throwing haymakers looking for the early KO.

There is a good chance this ends early and probably even round 1. The winner likely scores 100+ and I want shots on both sides. Hardy will be a core play for me though and I want him or McCann in most of my GPP lineups. I think he could be the highest owned fighter on the card, but I will probably be in line or overweight to the field. He isn’t guaranteed to be on the optimal lineup with 100 DK points at his price tag though where Sosoli would be at his $6.9k tag. I think he is the hardest puncher Hardy has faced so far and he could be the first to land big. Not only would the score put him on the optimal, but it would also kill off half the field who rostered Hardy. GPP only shot for Sosoli here but I will have a few shots at the KO upset. Hardy is in play in cash games for me as well and I don’t hate trying to get him and McCann and try to lock up ~200 points if they both win.

Winner – Greg Hardy via 1st round (T)KO

 

Yair Rodriguez $8,100 vs Jeremy Stephens $8,100

Yair Rodriguez

Age: 26

Height: 5’11

Weight: 145

Reach: 71”

Gym: Lobo Gym

From: Mexico

UFC Record: 7-1

Fight Matrix: 27

Last Fought: 11 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W1

Betting Odds: -105

 

Let’s do this again. Yair Rodriguez was coming off one of the most miraculous wins in UFC history, but his last fight was marred. Him & Stephens fought for 15 seconds before Rodriguez poked Stephens in the eye ending the fight. Rodriguez feels Stephens could have continued & it has caused a lot of bad blood here. This will be his first fight in 2019, but I think it’s good he took time off. The fight with zombie was a FOTY candidate, and he did take a lot of damage. Rodriguez is a dynamic striker and one of the most fun fighters to watch. He has strong, low leg kicks, and I think he needs to use those and circle off to stop the forward motion of Stephens. He will also throw oblique kicks to the knee and front kicks to the body. He has a nasty spinning back kick to the body, and to the head. Rodriguez isn’t a great boxer, but he is a Mexican warrior and will sit down and trade with opponents on the inside. He likes to throw a check left hook or straight-right hand. He has a nice spinning backfist in close range. He is very dangerous and can finish the fight at any time. He has 5 KO/TKO’s and has been finished twice with strikes. Rodriguez needs to make this an outside fight, he needs to move, throw leg kicks to make Stephens reset and then try to find a finishing shot as Stephens closes the distance.

Rodriguez is a decent wrestler, he is good at timing double legs, but I see him using anti wrestling in this fight if anything. Rodriguez is good in the clinch, he has good trip takedowns, and he is good defensively in the clinch. He didn’t have good takedown defense when Edgar got in on his legs and wasn’t able to get-up or threaten from his back. He usually does have a very active guard and will throw up triangles or armbars. If he gets taken down by Stephens, I think that he will be in trouble and needs to avoid getting the fight taken to the ground. He has 3 submissions, and never been submitted himself.

 

Jeremy Stephens

Age: 33

Height: 5’9

Weight: 145

Reach: 71”

Gym: Alliance MMA

From: California

UFC Record: 15-15

Fight Matrix: 9

Last Fought: 7 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: L2

Betting Odds: -115

 

Jeremy Stephens needs to bounce back from consecutive losses. He had strung 3 wins in a row together in early 2018 but was finished when given the opportunity at former champion, Jose Aldo. He returned earlier this year to fight super prospect Zabit Magomedsharipov & lost a tight decision. Stephens did seem like he was picking up as the fight went on & the pressure was getting to Zabit. Jeremy Stephens is a seek & destroy type of fighter. He has arguably the most power in the division & is extremely durable. He is constantly marching opponents down and switching stances to try to cut off the cage. He will mix in heavy low kicks to try to slow opponent’s movement as well. He has an excellent jab. He will double jab his way into range for combinations. He has a nasty double jab two & double jab, overhand right. He will attack the body with those same combinations as well. He likes to close the distance with straight punch flurries to the body & then go to the head. He will fake the body shots & throw heavy uppercuts. He has a nice left hook, overhand right combination. He has good head movement. He will slip the jab and come over the top with heavy right hooks & overhand rights. He is a bruiser & willing to sit in the pocket & take one to give one. You saw this very noticeably in a recent main event of his. He was dropped in an exchange vs Josh Emmett, but proceeded to get-up off the canvas, to drop & knockout Josh Emmett brutally. He will use spinning backfists to catch opponents circling off the cage. I expect his whole game plan in this fight to be predicated on making Rodriguez go backwards, jamming his kicks & trying to get him to fight with his back near the cage. When Stephens gets opponents stationary against the cage, that’s where he’s dangerous & dynamic. He will dig heavy shots to the body & come over the top with one shot knockout punches. He has nasty flying knees he has flat lined opponents with. He also throws nice high kicks & has knockouts with those as well. In this fight, I see him trying to use his hands & leg kicks mostly, walk Yair down, make him fight off the back foot, and turn up with combinations when he cuts him off. Stephens can overextend at times & fall in love with his power. His forward pressure style also always gives him the chance to walk into something. His chin has been granite over his career, but he was finished recently due to a body shot vs Jose Aldo. Maybe it’s a good idea for Rodriguez to target the body with shots & try to take him out that way. Stephens has one punch knockout power & 19 career KO/TKO’s. He has a great chin & is very durable. He has been finished KO/TKO just twice in his career.

Jeremy Stephens is probably going to be the better wrestler in this matchup. I don’t see him using a game plan of offensive wrestling, but I don’t expect to have to him to worry about being taken down. Zabit was able to win round two vs Stephens by taking him down & taking his back. Stephens was able to defend the takedowns initially & get back to his feet, but Magomedsharipov is very long & has excellent riding ability with his wrestling. Stephens made Zabit work to get the takedown & didn’t take a ton of damage on the ground. I do think Zabit needed the wrestling to rest, because he looked tired late in round 3. If Yair is gassing due to the forward pressure I don’t think he has the option to grapple. Jeremy Stephens will look for cage control or double leg takedowns if he’s getting out classed on the feet. He hasn’t had to resort to that in a long time though. One of the most dangerous aspects of Stephens game though, is his ground & pound. If he drops a fighter or gets on top somehow, he will go crazy with ruthless ground & pound. He will rain down brutal hammerfists & elbows and puts fighters out cold. He knocked Choi out with nasty ground & pound and broke several bones in the face of Josh Emmett. If Rodriguez is on bottom against Stephens, he better be ready to control posture as best he can.

 

They rebooked this fight from a few weeks ago after it ended with a 15-second eye poke NC. I was on Yair in that fight and he was a bet for me as well. The Mexico location and altitude were part of the reasoning for that bet though and now we have the fight in Boston against a pissed off Stephens. I don’t think I will be betting this time, but I think Yair is the more well-rounded striker and I think if he can avoid getting knocked out that he can win this fight with his volume and unorthodox style.

With only 3-rounds to work with now, I don’t care for this fight much on DK. Both guys are in play for the KO chance and if they get it in round 1 they will be on the $25k lineup. I just think they will be too highly owned here and if there is no KO then they won’t score highly. I will probably just 50/50 this fight and build my favorite 1-2 Yair lineups and then just duplicate them with Stephens. I don’t think I would touch this fight in cash games though and I would prefer Winn or Barber more.

Winner – Yair Rodriguez via Unanimous Decision

 

Dominick Reyes $8,800 vs Chris Weidman $7,400

Dominick Reyes

Age: 29

Height: 6’4

Weight: 205

Reach: 77”

Gym: Elevation Fight Team

From: California

UFC Record: 5-0

Fight Matrix: 9

Last Fought: 7 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W11

Betting Odds: -165

 

Dominick Reyes is looking to stamp his spot as the clear next challenger for Jon Jones’ title. He is getting an opportunity to welcome a former UFC champion & big name in Chris Weidman to the LHW division. Reyes is undefeated in his career at 11-0 but is coming off a hotly contested decision against Volkan Oezdemir. Reyes is a dynamic athlete with knockout power & well-rounded skills. Reyes has great lateral footwork & head movement. He will work behind a lot of feints & fakes. He will start off landing a nice jab & then fake the jab & come with the straight-right hand. He will throw a jab, left hook combo. He also likes to throw a lead uppercut, straight-right. He will throw a left hook, straight-right hand to the body. He will slip a punch in the pocket, quickly load up and return with a powerful uppercut. He attacks the body nicely with round kicks, especially when opponents are trying to circle off the cage or at the end of combinations. He will go high with the kick as well & has very fast kicks. When he gets opponents backed against the cage, he does an amazing job of keeping them there. He has great shot selection & will stay long but keep the volume high with jabs, straights, overhands & uppercuts. He has 6 KO/TKO’s all in round one & has shown big power. In his last fight with Volkan Oezdemir, Oezdemir was able to take his power, and walk him down which caused Reyes issues. Reyes looked uncomfortable under the pressure at times & ate some big shots. He gave up the cage too much & has to control the distance better vs Weidman.

Reyes is an above average grappler. He showed a nice clinch game in his fight with OSP.  He was able to land some nice knees & control OSP against the cage. He also did a great job of making OSP pay for takedown attempts. He landed brutal elbows to the side of the head & nice hammerfists. He does a great job of controlling a wrist & threw nice hooks & uppercuts to counter the takedown attempts. He does a great job of throwing strikes off the break. Reyes has good get-ups & is hard to hold down. Getting takedowns on Reyes can just tire his opponent out at times because he just gets up quickly. In his last match, Volkan Oezdemir did knock him down with a leg kick & control on top for a short period. He also took down Reyes with a double leg in round one and had some top control time. Reyes will shoot a single leg takedown, but he doesn’t look for many takedowns. I don’t expect him to shoot any in this matchup. Reyes has done well in some IBJJF competitions, so he has shown some competency in the Jiu-Jitsu realm. He was able to get a rear naked choke against Jeremy Kimball. His cardio waned a bit against Saint Preux & Volkan Oezdemir. In this fight he has to have the cardio to move & kick like he likes to for five rounds. Reyes has two career submissions. Dominick is going to need to use lateral movement early & try to pick Weidman apart going backwards, land leg kicks, body shots, feint & pick punches well to keep Weidman guessing. He has more tools in his toolbox & if he can get Chris in a defensive shell he can open up.

 

Chris Weidman

Age: 35

Height: 6’2

Weight: 205 (Debut)

Reach: 78”

Gym: Serra-Longo Fight Team

From: New York

UFC Record: 10-4

Fight Matrix: 11

Last Fought: 11 Months

Last Five: 1-4

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: +145

 

Chris Weidman is making the move to 205 lbs after a rough go at MW as of late. Weidman has lost 4 of his last 5 matches. All of his losses have come via KO/TKO. Weidman is fighting for his career here to a certain extent. Weidman is a good striker. He will throw out a nice jab. He has a good one-two. He will throw a lot of front kick to the body, and controls distance well on the feet. He has a nice straight-right hand, and he will fake the level change and throw that or a hook with good power. He does a good job of if he can cut opponents off against the cage flurrying and throwing 3,4 jabs and mix in some hooks and uppercuts. Weidman is comfortable in the pocket & has a nasty left hook. Weidman will throw some nice low kicks, and round kicks to the body and head. He is very resilient, he got dropped badly in his last fight against Kelvin Gastelum and he immediately got in on a single leg and survived. Weidman has a tendency to freeze up when he’s hit though. He will just cover up & be hittable. Jacare Souza was able to land hard body shots to open up the eventual kill shot to the head. Weidman has taken a lot of damage and been finished brutally by Jacare Souza, Yoel Romero and Luke Rockhold. His finish against Mousasi I don’t think was really that bad in terms of big damage. He has 6 KO/TKO’s himself and definitely has big power.

Chris Weidman is a phenomenal grappler and very credentialed. He is a 2-time division 1 All American wrestler, a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu and a ADCC Gold Medalist. He has an amazing single leg and takes everyone down with it. He has very nice body locks and will immediately land in side control. He does a great job of if he can’t get the single, staying attached coming up, digging an underhook and chain wrestling. On top, he has great control, and is very methodical in his approach. He will slowly work into dominant positions and loves to get to a wrestling ride position or full mount, and then back control. He has a good rear naked choke, kimura and arm triangle. He has been working with John Danaher for a long time who is one of the best BJJ minds in the world. He has been on top of great guys like Demian Maia and couldn’t really control him but didn’t get in any danger or swept. He has never been submitted and has 4 submissions himself. He has great takedown defense and the only fighter who has exploited him on the ground is Luke Rockhold. He has great cardio and is used to being in championship fights and persevering. He needs a win here to keep his championship hopes alive.

 

Weidman is making his debut at Light Heavyweight against one of the top prospects in the division. Weidman is going to need takedowns to win this fight. I think it will be hard for him to win 5 rounds with wrestling, but I could see him finishing the fight with GNP or a submission. If he can’t get takedowns, then he is probably going to get knocked out. Reyes is the much better striker and way more dangerous as well. Weidman was (T)KO’d 4 times at Middleweight so he won’t want to stand long in this fight with Reyes.

This is an all-in fight and I would be surprised if the winner wasn’t on the $25k lineup. I think Reyes is my preferred play here, but I think Weidman will be my highest owned underdog on the card and since I don’t like the dogs on this card I might be 50/50 on this fight or maybe even have to favor Weidman 60/40. He is the best wrestler Reyes has fought and if he wins he probably gets 100+. Same with Reyes though, if he wins it is likely a KO and could come early. I like stacking the fight in cash and getting the guaranteed win and 100+ points. I also think you can fade this fight in cash as well and hope others pick the wrong guy. I don’t hate that strat for small field, higher stakes type contests either because you probably don’t need the highest possible score in those. Other than that, just lock this fight into all your GPPs and hope that you have the winning combo.

Winner – Dominick Reyes via 1st round (T)KO

 

 

 

Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!

 

 

 

*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru

**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.

*** All my premium bets can be found at this link: https://MMAoddsbreaker.com/premium-picks/

  • Bets are on a 1-10u scale with 1u = $100.
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