Welcome to The Inside Line: Truck Series. Larkin8 here and this week we will be covering all the drivers participating in the World of Westgate 200 NASCAR Gander Outdoors Truck Series race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. If you have any other questions be sure to jump into the NASCAR Talk slack channel for assistance from our NASCAR coaches. You can follow me on Twitter @Larkin8
Brett Moffitt $11,800
Moffitt comes into this week having won the last two races and four of the last nine overall. He finished 2nd here in March and also had a 3rd place finish here last year. He led 45 laps in the two races here last season. He is 100% deserving of this price and is one of a handful of top contenders for the win.
Ross Chastain $11,200
Ross has had a fantastic year in 2019 having won three races officially and a fourth that he failed post race tech for. However, he has been completely average on the 1.5 mile tracks. Outside of the Kansas win that was handed to him he has 1 top 5 in the other seven 1.5 mile races. He is a great driver but the team has lacked the elite speed to contend with the top teams on this style of track. For this reason this race is ultra important to Chastain as the Championship race is also ran on a 1.5 mile track. I don’t believe he can be a dominator which makes it hard for him to reach value this week.
Johnny Sauter $10,700
Sauter has had a horrible year and yet is still this high in price. It honestly lacks a bit of logic. He has a total of three top 5s on the year with the last one coming at Dover in the spring. He is just outside the playoff bubble this week so he will need a great run to make it into the next round. I expect him inside the top 10 but top 5 is a stretch based on what we have seen so far this year.
Stewart Friesen $10,300
Friesen is going to come into this race as the co favorite to dominate and win. He has led 68 laps in the last three Vegas races. He will be an elite with multiple fast laps and laps led. He is on the playoff bubble this week as well so he will have to uses some caution but I expect Friesen to attack this race to score as many stage points as possible and look to compete for the win late. Elite speed always on these 1.5 mile tracks.
Matt Crafton $10,000
Crafton is another driver in the playoff bubble mix. He is incredibly consistent with top tens in 15 of the 18 races this year with a worst finish of 14th. As far as Vegas goes he has finished 8th or better in 11 of the last 13 races including a 3rd here in March. In those 11 races he has 8 top 5s and an average finish of 4.36. Incredible cash play. He isn’t an elite Dom threat so will look for a little place differential help to get into an optimal lineup.
Grant Enfinger $9,700
Enfinger is the defending winner of this race and has a career average of 7.83 in six Vegas races. He has been the best Thorsport truck and the third best on this track type behind Friesen and Moffitt. The last two 1.5 mile tracks he led 22 laps and 49 laps respectively before having issues leading to poor finishes. He will certainly be running towards the front. Also, in the playoff points battle. Good price for a potential dom.
Ben Rhodes $9,500
Rhodes has had some horrible luck in 2019. That being said when everything goes smoothly he is a top 5 threat. He has 3 top 5s on 1.5 tracks this year. He won this race in 2017 and prior to having issues in this springs race had an average finish of 4th in the three previous races. Top 5 contender and a potential surprise winner.
Sheldon Creed $9,300
Creed has finally eliminated the wrecks and has become a top threat over the last two months. He has finished 6th or better in each of the last four races. He finished 6th here in March. His crew chief, car chief and race engineer all return after three week suspensions as well. I like Creed as a top 5 contender and potential dominator.
Tyler Ankrum $9,100
Ankrum is 8th of 8 in the playoff standings and needs to make up a bunch of points. Good news is he is heading to his teams specialty which is the 1.5 mile tracks. Finished 6th and 3rd at Texas this year and won at Chicago after leading 40 laps. He also finished 2nd at the high speed Pocono track. This is a bit of a go big and take risk race since he needs to make points to advance in the playoffs. Look for him to push for as many stage points as possible and if he doesn’t gain enough ground to then use strategy to chase a win. This makes him a little risky for cash but a potential homerun for gpps.
Christian Eckes $8,900
Eckes is driving the #51 that Kyle Busch absolutely destroyed the field with in March. Eckes is not KB and I do not anticipate him being able to duplicate that. He can certainly be in the mix for a top 5 but after his poor Michigan performance I do question his ability to hang at the front this early in his career. He has never run a truck on a 1.5 mile track and has never had a top 5 in the ARCA series on 1.5 mile tracks. Personally I expect him to end up in the 8th to 10th range this week.
Todd Gilliland $8,700
Gilliland has been roughly a 7th place truck all year and that is exactly what we should expect this week. If he offers some place diff he can be a solid play but overall not too excited about his upside.
Austin Hill $8,500
When Hill has finished a 1.5 mile race in 2019 his average finish is 6th. He is a fringe top 5 truck every time out on the high speed tracks including winning at Michigan. He is another driver on the playoff bubble this week. I don’t think he is a race winning contender this week but top 5 contender for sure who with some place diff can be an elite play.
Harrison Burton $8,300
Burton comes in a little low price wise which is a good thing. Unlike his teammate Gilliland Burton has been rather good on the 1.5 mile tracks. He has finished top 5 in his last three and has finished 11th or better in all eight races on this track type. Finished 5th here in March and that is exactly where I am looking for him to run this week. I don’t know if he can truly contend for the win but 100% a top 5 threat.
Anthony Alfredo $8,200
Alfredo has been a fringe top 10 truck every race but consistency has been his biggest issue. In nine races this year he has a best finish of 8th and only four top 15 finishes. The speed in the truck is there but driver hasn’t closed the deal. If he can run a clean race he will likely end up in the 8th to 12th range.
John H. Nemechek $8,100
The biggest threat to Moffitt and Friesen this week will be JHN. He will be driving the #8 this week for Nemco but with an elite GMS truck. The equipment will be the same quality and made form same shop as both Moffitt and Friesen. The key to this is Nemechek is the more talented driver. Definite top 5 truck and elite threat to win and dominate. At this price he is a no brainer.
Austin Wayne Self $7,900
Self has averaged a 13th place finish in his last three Vegas races. He also has averaged an 11th place finish in his last six races in 2019 including a 6th at the last 1.5 mile track. He has shown fringe top 10 speed over the last three months. I like him to finish around 13th but if we see a couple issues up front could sneak into the top 10.
Tyler Dippel $7,700
Dippel is back after a one race suspension. Essentially had his name cleared after having possession of a friends prescription. Dippel almost always runs around the 12th position and is the best of the non elite teams. I like him to run in that range yet again. Solid play in both formats.
Derek Kraus $7,600
Kraus will be driving the #16 for Bill McAnally Racing. This is also the team he races for in the K&N series where he is absolutely dominating. He is considered a top young prospect. This will be his third ever truck start but he looked solid in his other two including an 8th at Dover. He can score a top 10 this week but I like to limit expectations on young drivers. Expect a 12th place finish but does have slightly better upside.
Spencer Davis $7,400
Davis is racing for Rette Jones Racing. Davis has raced for this team twice in 2019 including an 8th at Kentucky. That 8th was completely aided by poor fuel strategy of many top teams late as well as a few top teams having DNF’s. Expectations for this week should be an 18th-20th place truck with upside around 15th.
Dylan Lupton $7,200
Lupton is driving the #5 for DGR this week. He scored a 10th and 5th in his first two races with DGR both at 1.5 tracks. The 5th was due to failed fuel strategies by many teams at Kentucky. He was roughly a 10th-12th place truck in both those races with weaker fields. Look for him to run inside the top 15 with upside around 10th-12th. Not bad at this price.
Jesse Iwuji $7,000
A bit of a ridiculous price here. He has done a fantastic job of qualifying 28th or worse and then watching everyone wreck in front of him scoring an average of 30 DK points per race. This is certainly possible again this week so he isn’t an awful play. It will be hard to justify this price though with the likelihood of getting several better plays much lower in price. See how qualifying goes and reevaluate then.
Spencer Boyd $6,800
It only took Boyd missing a couple races for DK to realize how stupidly high Boyd was priced. Last race he was $7,800 the race before that he was $8,100. At one point he was at $8,500 with only 1 top 10. Now at a more reasonable price he is a decent low tier play. He is roughly a 17th-20th place truck but often qualifies deep in the field. With the right place diff he could be a solid play this week.
Mason Massey $6,600
Massey is in a similar situation to Iwuji that he is limited upside and is completely reliant on the struggles of better teams. Overall he has been the better driver of the two with the only thing downside being that he has been a decent qualifier. Because Massey has qualified well he has limited his place differential upside thus hurting his overall points scoring. Will have to wait and see where he qualifies to see how viable he is.
Brennan Poole $6,500
Give me Poole at $6,500 all day. I don’t understand the thinking here price wise but a 9th at Texas, 2nd at Charlotte and 7th at Texas 2 speaks for itself. He has top 10 upside on these 1.5 mile tracks and has delivered that multiple times. If he can just offer some place differential he could end up an elite play.
Jordan Anderson $6,400
Anderson is ultra consistent. You know exactly what you are going to get from him. A nice clean race where he finishes around 15th-17th. If he qualifies 20th or worse and offers some place differential he is a really decent low tier play.
Tyler Hill $6,300
Tyler is driving the #56 truck owned by his family. This truck has been roughly a 20th place truck when it races. Because it is a part time team and isn’t locked into the race based on points there will be some concerns with them making the race. They will have to qualify on speed and if he qualifies too high he could limit his upside with no place differential available. Will know more post qualifying.
Anthony Mrakovich $6,100
Mrakovich has raced twice this year including a 12th at Pocono. Expectations is that because he is driving the #87 for Nemco that he will be a start and park. It is really hard to judge this situation so it might be better to play it safe and avoid him this week.
Justin Johnson $6,000
Johnson is driving the #08 truck for Kart Idaho Racing. Kart Idaho is a K&N Series team that runs middle of the pack and is owned by Travis Milburn. Milburn will be serving as crew chief for this race. Johnson is a local Vegas driver who is a four time champion of the Las Vegas bullring short track. We will have to utilize practice to see where this team will stack up. They will have to qualify their way into the race.
Colin Garrett $5,800
Garrett is driving a third Niece Motorsports truck this week. The #38 has made a couple attempts with mixed results. It is likely to be about a 20th place truck and driver combo with a little bit better upside if everything comes together. Important to pay close attention to practice with Garrett and see if he can adapt quickly. He has been a solid overall driver in the K&N Series the last couple years and will be making his first Truck start.
Jennifer Jo Cobb $5,700
If Cobb makes the race she will very likely be starting in the very back. Her upside is very limited but if we get a crash fest with her starting that deep she can be a great punt play. Only reason to play her is to hope for a few DNFs which with the way this season has gone is entirely possible.
Gus Dean $5,500
Dean is another driver with weird pricing this week. He spent most of the season between $7,000 and $7,500 and even reached $7,800. Now we see him as the cheapest full timer in the series. He has put together DK point totals of 33, 40, 32, and 31 in his last five races total with the Eldora dirt race being his only bad showing. I don’t understand the price drop here but we should all look to take advantage of it. Roughly a 17th place truck with top 15 upside in right situation.
Cory Roper $5,400
Roper has had really good speed at times especially in qualifying. He has three DK performances of 40+ but also has four DK performances of 11 or worse. Very hot and cold situation. Will all depend on where he starts but could be a solid punt play if he can start around 18th or deeper.
Codie Rohrbaugh $5,200
After a rough start Codie has finished 14th and 17th in his last two races scoring 35 and 31 points in those races. He will have to qualify on time which I don’t anticipate being a problem. Much like Roper he is a top 15 upside driver who if he starts 18th or deeper can be a solid play.
Daniel Sasnett $5,100
Start and Park. Don’t expect to make race. Fade
Natalie Decker $5,000
Horrific cash play but at this price she is solid gpp play. When Decker has been able to finish she ends up around the 15th-17th place. I wouldn’t load up on her but some coverage is definitely warranted.
Angela Ruch $4,900
Ruch is back in the #44 this week for Niece Motorsports. She will likely start towards the very back in a decent truck and offer some decent place differential. If she can ride around and get a little help she can certainly score some nice points. Good punt play in right circumstances.
This will conclude this edition of The Inside Line: Truck Series. Please follow me on twitter @Larkin8 and make sure to join me in our NASCAR talk slack channel for more coverage.