Hello again Army, and welcome to this week’s Calming the Chaos! We’ve made it to the end of round one, which means it’s time for the dreaded Roval. But hey, what’s dreadful to these drivers is entertaining for us! It’s a unique track, one that we only see once a year (and that we’ve only seen once so far), so be sure to tune in for this one.
As always, if you haven’t already, be sure to check out my driver list & tools suite, as this article will directly tie into it. If you have any questions, reach out to me in Slack at #nillys-garage-nas-mlb and I’ll be happy to help however I can.
The Roval
If you’re not familiar with this track, they took Charlotte’s 1.5-mile track, chopped off about half of it, then stuck a road course in the middle with some funky twists and bumps. Oh, and it’s an elimination race in the playoffs. Fun!!
Playoff picture
It’s the end of round one, which means that four drivers’ playoffs hopes will be dashed after the conclusion of this race. Unfortunately for many of them, they aren’t that far apart in terms of points, so they ALL will need to perform well to keep going. It’s easier to look at a graph for this, so let’s do just that!
As you can see, everybody between Larson and Kurt are close enough to one another that a poor finish could knock them out if the others finish strongly and one of these drivers can capture the checkered flag. As for Jones, he’s more or less in a must-win situation, as that’s about the only way he’s going to advance now (he could get through without winning, but he’d need stage points, a strong finish, and some help). Regardless, keep that in mind, as he’ll need to drive the wheels off that #20 if he wants to make it to the next round.
Lineup construction / correlation
With the Roval comes a whopping 109 laps, which is the second-fewest number of laps of any race we see all year. Because of that, dominators are not very important, or at least not unless we nail a primary dominator who finishes strongly. In other words, don’t go stacking a bunch of front-runners this week, as that’s not going to take home the prize!
At the most, I would go for one dominator in all formats on both sites (I’m talking the front-runners here, listed as dominators on the suite). You can certainly get by without any of those guys and focus more on the hybrids instead, which is probably what I would do for cash games.
Hybrids
Speaking of which, let’s talk about them first. Hamlin, Kurt, and Elliott lead the way here and make a strong core you can build around in all formats. I love them all, but if I had to rank them in order, it would be the way I listed them here.
Don’t forget about Kyle Busch and Keselowski though, they’re certainly in play too. They’re just not as strong as the other three for cash games, so I don’t think we need to go there for those purposes. As usual, you can mix and match any of these five drivers however you see fit, as they can all pay off together without worrying about who will lead laps and who won’t.
Dominators
This is the only race in recent memory that I can think of that had every dominator listed as a GPP play, but here we are. It’s for good reason though, as those dominator points just won’t be that critical with only 109 laps to go around, and the hybrids have a lot going for them.
Anyway, Byron and Logano are the most likely to dominate early, and Logano got a pretty nice bump since he’ll start up front now. If he can get the quick jump, I could see him taking the lead and holding it for a little while, because Byron absolutely cannot afford to be overly aggressive that early on. He needs to just go out, perform, and grab himself a top-10 or top-15 with some stage points, not try to lead the way all day. That’s not to say you shouldn’t play him, it just means that Logano deserves to be in a few extra lineups than you may have had him in before.
After that it’s a bit of a crapshoot, but I’d give the edge to Larson, followed by everybody else (it’s truly a coin flip). With Truex starting at the rear, that hurts his chances, but that also means his ownership should fall a little, so don’t be afraid to keep him in your pool in case he can make it 3 wins in a row with some mid/late-race lead laps. It’s definitely happened before.
Studs
Newman is my guy yet again this week, and I like him in all formats. I don’t think a top-15 will be too difficult for him to grab, and as we’ve seen, he’s become very familiar with cruising around in the top-10 with the big dogs. His price is very attractive over on FanDuel.
Jones and Jimmie are next, and while I don’t love either of them, Jones at least has that “do or die” mentality headed into the race, so look for him to try and put on a show. I do like him on FanDuel a little better, but he’s certainly in play on both sites thanks to the playoff narrative.
Value studs
Basically a cheaper Newman, DiBenedetto is the guy in this price range, and I expect nothing less than another top-15 (with top-10 upside) campaign out of him. He’s definitely cash viable, but I really like him for GPP purposes.
Up there with him is Menard, though I do like him better on FanDuel thanks to his starting position. Don’t skip over him though, as everybody else will be, because he does have a realistic path to being in the winning lineup. Stenhouse is behind him and does offer a higher ceiling thanks to his starting position, but I have no idea which version of him we’ll see. Will he fight like hell and try to impress owners for a potential new ride in 2020, or will be calm and quiet for this one? It’s hard telling, but I would certainly get some exposure since a top-10 is not impossible for him to grab.
After that, it’s Buescher followed by Suarez/Almirola.
Value
Ty and Ragan are my guys here, and I like them for cash games and GPP purposes alike. They offer plenty of upside here as they can both grab a finish between about 18th and 22nd, possibly higher if things really go their way again.
After that, it’s another crapshoot, but I would say Hemric/Preece/Tifft, McDowell, Wallace, then Austin/LaJoie. I don’t mind just taking shots with the first three of four and fading the others.
Punts
If you want a punt in cash, I don’t mind taking Kligerman here. He’s in play in GPP too of course, thanks to him starting so deep in the field. If he can simply survive and stay in the race, he’ll have a chance to move up 5-10 spots if some others have issues and crash, which is certainly bound to happen here.
Chastain and Cassill are behind him, followed by the rest. You can fade Ware/Hill, as their cars are more likely to blow up on them than any other outcome. Either that or they’re going to take it really easy to avoid and unnecessary expenses. Low budget life!
Stacks
This isn’t really a stack-friendly track, especially not with only 109 laps to go around. I don’t want to say it’s every man for himself out there, but…it’s basically every man for himself out there.
Pivots
Ah, pivots! There are plenty of solid options here, and this time it’s mostly at the lower end; the punts and value drivers have some interesting options that make good targets to focus on, followed by the hybrids and dominators. I’m not too big on the studs, as I think it’s going to be Newman or nothing from that group.
You can load up on as many hybrids as you want, but remember to keep the dominators to a maximum of one. Don’t send me your Byron + Logano + Bowyer lineups and ask what I think about them. Rejected!
Closing thoughts
Remember to switch gears this week, as we only have 109 laps (compared to last week’s 400), and mind those playoff narratives. I know I’ve mentioned cash a fair amount, but races here can be very chaotic, so if you went GPP only this week, I wouldn’t argue against it at all. No matter what, play within your means, trust your gut, and make use of those cheaper pivots. Good luck, and I’ll see you all in Slack!