Hello again Army, and welcome to this week’s Calming the Chaos! We kick off the Monster Energy playoffs this weekend, so everything is going to change now and for the remainder of the season. We’ll start with this trip to Las Vegas, a 1.5-mile track that brings some important thoughts to consider as we approach the green flag. Not to worry, we’ll go over them here!
As always, if you haven’t already, be sure to check out my driver list & tools suite, as this article will directly tie into it. If you have any questions, reach out to me in Slack at #nillys-garage-nas-mlb and I’ll be happy to help however I can.
Las Vegas Motor Speedway
Playoff picture
If you don’t remember how the playoffs in NASCAR work, let’s go over a quick version. First, here are the 16 drivers who will compete for a championship this year:
There are a lot of little points here and there, but the main point is pretty simple; there are four rounds, and the first three rounds have three races each. The first three rounds will drop the four bottom drivers, and then the final four will race for the championship at the season finale in Miami.
To advance, a driver needs to stay above the cutoff line in points, or they just need to win a race (a win automatically advances you, regardless of how the other two races in that round went).
This first round will feature Las Vegas (this weekend), Richmond (a short track), and Charlotte (which will be the roval, not the standard 1.5-mile track). So, what does this mean for us? Well, we get one cookie-cutter track followed by two niche/quirky tracks. Nobody wants to go to the roval in a must-win situation, and some fare better than others at short tracks, so look for everybody to be on their game here. You can’t win the championship in the opening race, but you can put your playoffs hopes in serious jeopardy by having an early exit and a last place finish here.
In other words, look for the strong dominators to put on a clinic on how to lead a race, and look for the “lower end/longshot” guys to have solid performances here (which could translate into a top-10 where we might otherwise expect a top-15). We’ll touch on them as we go through the different categories.
Lineup construction / correlation
As the race calc says, we have 267 laps here, which translates over to needing one or two dominators. For general cash/hybrid and GPP use, I would look for two dominators as a starting point (on both sites), making sure one of those are a hybrid for cash games. For deeper GPP use, I would have some exposure to some solo dominator lineups, as it’s certainly possible we get one of those races again (look at Bowyer or Harvick as a primary candidate for that, but don’t go crazy with a ton of those kind of lineups). You could also fade the front-runner dominators and just go with hybrids + studs instead, as there are a lot of them that could dominate the race as well (and you wouldn’t have to try and predict which one(s) would do it).
Balanced and stars & scrubs style lineups are the flavor this week, as we have a ton of great options on the upper and middle/high end to work with. Either style works for cash and GPP, so go with whichever feels most comfortable to you (lean balanced for more of a floor for basic cash games, lean stars & scrubs for higher ceiling use, like for hybrid, ladders, and/or GPP).
Lastly, can you believe it’s been over two months since we last saw a standard 1.5-mile track? Well, it has been, and some of our “1.5-mile guys” have been quiet lately, which is great news for us (especially with so many people focused on NFL now). We’ll get to them, but as you’re deciding on which drivers you’re playing here, please be sure to put them at the front of the pack!
Here’s some food for thought before we begin (average DKFP over the seven 1.5-mile tracks so far in 2019):
Quick note before we move on, don’t worry much about DiBenedetto’s average shown here..more on that later!
Hybrids
Well holy smokes, we got a lot of them this week! Kyle Busch, Truex, and Logano lead the way here and considering their salaries, I like (I mean LOVE) them all roughly the same. Logano is one of those “start here” cash options, while I like Truex the best as a GPP pivot since people may have forgotten that he can lead 200+ laps at these 1.5-mile tracks. Old reliable (Kyle) is never a bad option, so you can just plug him in wherever you see fit.
I loooove Keselowski as a pivot for the reasons I mentioned in the notes. Basically, he loves to just show up out of nowhere when all eyes are on other drivers, and that’s exactly the situation we have on our hands here. You can mix and match him with any of these hybrids, or even a dominator, but be damn sure you have exposure to him this week. I don’t curse in these articles often, so you know I’m serious!
After that it’s Hamlin and Larson rounding out the group as GPP pivots. Again, you can mix them with any of the other hybrids and/or a dominator. For cash games, go with one (or more of) the first three listed above.
Dominators
Bowyer went and got himself the pole and will be protected by all three of his teammates, making him a fine cash option. Suarez , unfortunately, missed the cut, but Harvick and Almirola are in it, so I don’t see them pushing the issue with Bowyer at all. I do think it’s possible that Harvick could pass him cleanly after about 5 or so laps, so I wouldn’t stack them together in GPP, but I think there’s a much better chance that they just play nicely to start and cruise through the first stage holding as many of the top-3 positions as possible. Anyway, feel free to start with Bowyer in cash, as he shouldn’t have much trouble hitting 40-50 lead laps and finishing in the top-10.
Harvick is, of course, the primary pivot here, followed by Kurt and then Chase. I’m not big on Chase here, but I see Kurt being the dominator-equivalent of Keselowski. In other words, be sure to have exposure to him, and don’t sleep on him! See notes for some of the stats as to why.
Studs
Jones is by far and away the top option of this group. He’s not as cheap as he once was, but he’s a top-10 machine at these tracks and could see a top-5 as well. That’s a ton of upside considering he’s starting 26th!
Bowman is just behind him, and I actually like his ceiling a little more. If you recall, Bowman seemed to have figured something out at these traditional 1.5-mile tracks back at Kansas/Charlotte/Chicago, and I think this team has circled Las Vegas as their best shot to get to round 2 of the playoffs right away. Starting 19th gives him plenty of floor to be used in cash, and his ceiling is up there with even some of the hybrids this week (he essentially is a hybrid here). You can stack him with whoever you’d like.
After that, it’s Blaney, Byron, Newman, and then Almirola/Johnson/Suarez to be sprinkled around a little.
Value studs
Here’s a live look at CHRIS BUESCHER:
In all seriousness though, he’s virtually a lock this week (an absolute top-15 machine with top-10 upside and a reduced price compared to everybody else that you can say that about), and I would start any cash lineups you’re making with him…on both sites. If you ask me how your cash lineup looks and it doesn’t have Chris Buescher in it, I’m going to tell you that I don’t like it and refer you to this article. Just play the man!!
Burrito (DiBenedetto) is just behind him, especially with the momentum he has from the last month or so, and the fact that he just landed a ride for 2020. I don’t expect him to relent one bit, as he still wants to get that win for LFR. The season started a little slow for him, but after seeing his 16th place finish at Kentucky, I’m confident in him getting another top-15 (or better) here. He’s virtually the same as Buescher, just a tad more expensive, but you can just as easily stack them (I am doing just that).
After that, it’s Menard for the GPP pivot (he doesn’t have quite the ceiling that these two do, but he still has a pretty nice one and comes at a discount), then Stenhouse/Austin after him.
Value
I’m not in love with these guys this week, but Wallace is probably the best of the bunch. He’s coming off a bunch of momentum from last week, and while I don’t expect another 3rd place finish here, I think he could reasonably see a top-20 or top-15 here, and he’s still priced pretty nicely. He’s a solid choice in cash and GPP alike.
After that, it’s sort of a crapshoot. I guess I would say LaJoie/Preece/Ty, then Chastain/Hemric, then a blank lineup, then McDowell/Ragan.
Punts
Once again, Tifft is my guy here. As I said in my notes, he’s looked great at 1.5-mile tracks lately, and if you watched the race last week, you saw him running in the top-15 a lot before he ran into some issues. Luckily, he keeps qualifying pretty poorly, so we can still use him here. This is as low as I would go in cash.
After that, it’s another crapshoot. I guess I would say…Yeley/Nemechek, then Sorenson/Gase/Smithley/McLeod, then Cassill (he’s starting too high). Personally, I’d rather just uncheck them all and rely on Tifft instead.
Stacks
I wanted to love some Hendricks stacks, but they didn’t really qualify to where we could do it. However, you can still run some, but be sure you lead them with Bowman and then add Byron or Elliott to the mix. Johnson is in play too, I suppose, but he’s just sort of meh this week. Run him on FanDuel if you want to take some shots with him.
Penske, on the other hand, looks like some hot fire here with how they qualified, and you can roll out full stacks of Keselowski + Logano + Blaney to your heart’s content (or run some two-man stacks, whatever you prefer).
Stewart-Haas stacks are pretty much out of the question since they are starting 1-4 and only two of them are legitimate dominator threats. I wouldn’t try stacking Bowyer and Harvick together, as they’re going to eat into each other’s ceilings and once Bowyer loses the lead, he’s not getting it back.
Pivots
As usual, there are pivots galore here, especially the hybrids and studs. I would focus most of my efforts on those drivers first, and then look at the value studs/value/punts to help get a little different from the field. Most of the powerhouse plays are on the top end this week, so don’t be afraid to eat some chalk there and sprinkle in the lower-owned guys (like Menard or Preece) to help with ownership.
Closing thoughts
It’s hard to believe it, but we haven’t seen a standard 1.5-mile track in over two months, so be sure you’re attacking this one properly, as I’m sure plenty of other people out there won’t be. Use that to your advantage! Remember, we let the races come to us and we adapt to them, and this weekend is a perfect time to switch gears once again.
Also, with how qualifying turned out, this looks to be a fantastic race for cash games, so build up those ladders! I would love running 2 (or even 3) good ladders here since there are so many great options to go around. Even if you don’t, try your hand at one at the least, because this is one of the better-looking cash slates we’ll have the rest of the season. Good luck, and I’ll see you all in Slack!