Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! To kick things off, if you aren’t familiar with how I do things, you can get up to speed here: carnage rating system and tiers & classic batter sheets. If you have any questions, reach out to me in our coaching channels (@nillyJay or just swing by my channel #nillys-garage-nas-mlb).
Here is the initial carnage report for the day. You can keep an eye on it right here to get the most up-to-date information as the day goes on, and the final version for the main slate should be ready by around 11:00 am central time.
Well, we made it. After another long season, we’ve arrived at the final day of the regular season. It’s always a little bittersweet, as a lot of the targets we’ve come to love over the summer will be headed home after today, with only the strongest teams remaining to battle for the World Series championship. It’s been another good ride, and I hope you all have had a great season, or have at least learned a thing or two to apply to next season. With that said, let’s get to this enormous 15-game finale!
A look at pitchers
With Cole on the mound, we have our first all-purpose pitcher by a large margin. If you’re playing cash games, you can go ahead and just plug him in and move on.
We have quite a few decent GPP options to boot as well, such as Snell, Hill, and several others with high KSCOREs. There are too many to go over here, so be sure to keep an eye on the coach’s notes page to see who they like best!
Offenses to target
With so many solid pitching options, that also means that the offenses today aren’t in quite as good of a spot as they could be, so we’ll really have to dig in to find the best targets. We have several pitchers with bad SIERA scores, so that’ll be a good spot, as well a few with high carnage ratings. Again, keep an eye on the coach’s notes page to see where they are leaning!
Full Count Breakdown
New York Yankees at Texas Rangers
We’ll kick off this mega-slate with the Yankees and Rangers, two teams that have enjoyed scoring a healthy amount of runs against one another. However, seeing as we have two strong pitchers here, there may not be as many fireworks this time. I do expect to see a baseball or two exit the stadium, so if nothing else, this would be a good spot to fish for some one-offs.
Yankees 5 star plays – none
Yankees 4 star plays – LeMahieu, Judge, Stanton, Sanchez
GPP note – Not a super great matchup against Lynn, but they can hit bombs against anybody. Don’t be afraid to go here, especially after the dud last night
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Choo (BvP), Odor, Santana
GPP note – Streaky Odor had himself a game last night, so going back to the well with him wouldn’t be a terrible idea
Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburg Pirates
Up next we have two pitchers with surprisingly low carnage ratings, but I think that could mostly be attributed to the fact that these offenses aren’t running hot. Both pitchers have high SIERA scores (4.87 for Williams and 5.00 for Mahle), so stacking either side of this one isn’t a bad idea.
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Votto, Aquino, VanMeter
GPP note – Doesn’t look very exciting at first glance, but they get a high SIERA pitcher, which could open the doors for them to have a late-season party
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Newman, Frazier
GPP note – Same as above. You’ll have this stack all to yourself should you choose to run it
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Fransico Giants
We get a good ol’ west coast battle for this season finale, featuring Hill and the Dodgers against Rodriguez and the Giants. As we’ve been harping on a lot lately, it’s hard knowing which Dodgers will start and how long they might stay in the game, so be careful here. They won’t take any risks if this game gets out of hand, so I would look elsewhere for cash game purposes.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Bellinger
Dodgers 4 star plays – Muncy, Pederson, Seager
GPP note – There’s no telling who will start or who might get pulled early, so I would stick to GPP with this group. Aside from that, the same left-handed righty killers are all in play here
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Belt (BvP), Pillar, Longoria
GPP note – Belt may or may not start, but if he does, he’s worth taking even as a one-off
Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies
Alcantara has quietly been one solid pitcher as of late, and he’ll face the Phillies and their bullpen in their final game of the season. This game doesn’t excite me a whole lot, outside of taking some shots with Alcantara and perhaps a mini-stack or two, as it doesn’t look like the kind of game that’s going to blow up.
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Rojas, Walker, Castro
GPP note – It’s a bullpen game, so don’t expect a whole lot here. I’d probably stick to mini-stacks or one-offs
Phillies 5 star plays – none
Phillies 4 star plays – Harper (BvP), Hernandez, Miller
GPP note – Somewhat tough matchup against Alcantara, so big stacks might not be the answer here. A one-off or some mini-stacks might be okay
Protip: always be sure to keep an eye on #dfs-weather and our MLB Weather Station Tab throughout the day!
Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox
Speaking of solid pitching, Rodriguez has been doing very well as of late (sans that dud against the Rangers, whoops), and he’ll be tasked to try and slow down this Orioles team that doesn’t seem to care that they aren’t headed to the playoffs…they just want to score some more runs! Boston will see a bullpen game, and we all know how crappy theirs is. Anyway, both sides of this one are in play for some big juicy stacks, as there’s a good chance that at least one team goes a little bonkers.
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Mancini (BvP), Villar, Nunez, Smith Jr
GPP note – They have nothing to play for except to beat up on the Red Sox, and if Rodriguez doesn’t bounce back from his last dud, they could do it again here. If you stack here, stack big
Red Sox 5 star plays – Betts
Red Sox 4 star plays – Devers, Bogaerts, Bradley Jr
GPP note – Fantastic spot for them to do some damage and end the season on a positive note. Big stacks are in order
Cleveland Indians at Washington Nationals
After a bit of a shootout last night, Clevinger will look to pump the brakes on the Nationals and their hot offense, which will send Ross and the bullpen against the hit-or-miss Indians. I would approach this one with some caution, as it just screams GPP from all angles. I think the play here would be to hedge some Clevinger and Nationals lineups, as there’s a good chance that one side of this one will put up a good score while the other drops a dud.
Indians 5 star plays – none
Indians 4 star plays – Lindor, Santana, Ramirez, Freeman
GPP note – They have nothing to play for anymore but do get a decent matchup, so they might go and take their frustration out on Ross and the bullpen. Full stacks are in play
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Rendon, Soto, Dozier (BvP)
GPP note – Don’t forget about Dozier’s BvP, even if you aren’t stacking the Nats!
Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels
Hello, Mr. Chalk! It’s Cole against the weakened Angels, and with as ridiculous as he has been, it’s easy to see why he’s the top option today. For cash games, you just plug him in and move on. For GPP, you can pay up for him in confidence, as he has the highest ceiling on the slate (as perhaps the best chance of hitting it, too).
Astros 5 star plays – Bregman
Astros 4 star plays – Any of the big bats that start, Straw, Toro
GPP note – Good matchup against a pitcher who is allowing plenty of contact and has averaged nearly one home run per start on the season (.937…so close!). Even if the big starters sit, the cheaper replacements still get a strong matchup, so don’t forget about them
Angels 5 star plays – none
Angels 4 star plays – none
GPP note – Cole is a damn wrecking ball. Pass!
Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Meadows, Pham, Lowe, d’Arnaud
GPP note – This will be a good matchup for them to build some more momentum heading into the wildcard game, so you can stack away for a reasonably high ceiling here
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Grichuk, McKinney, Biggio, Guerrero
GPP note – Snell will shut them down for however long he stays in, followed by some cherry-picked matchups out of the bullpen. Beware of a very limited ceiling here
The starting lineups page is a useful tool to get a quick view of all of the teams, and I especially like the home run predictor to use for Monkey Knife Fight props!
Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies
It wouldn’t be an end-of-season slate without a Coors game, would it? Unfortunately, we might not see Arenado for this one, but Blackmon and company will try to make up for it. Hoffman can’t stop giving up homers, so both sides of this one are squarely in play.
Brewers 5 star plays – none
Brewers 4 star plays – Moustakas, Hiura, Thames, Grandal, Grisham
GPP note – Solid spot for some lefties to go deep here, so stack away
Rockies 5 star plays – Blackmon
Rockies 4 star plays – Story, Tapia, Murphy, McMahon
GPP note – The lefties are in a great spot here too, so you can load up on either side of this game…or perhaps both!
Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox
We get two super hit-or-miss pitchers up next, against two hit-or-miss (mostly miss for Detroit) teams, so you know what that means…cheap GPP options! Be on the lookout for a troll game from one of these pitchers, as well as some random big hits from the offenses (it’s more likely to be the White Sox offense that has a big day).
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Cabrera, Dixon, Reyes
GPP note – Nobody likes stacking the Tigers, but Detwiler has been anything but consistent/great, so on paper, it’s a decent spot for them to go off. 7.46 SIERA!!
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Abreu, Moncada, Garcia, Anderson
GPP note – Turnbull can be pretty solid at times, but also a trainwreck at others, so you can go here for a high-ceiling stack with low ownership
San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks
Baez and the San Diego bullpen will square off against Young and the Diamondbacks, two teams with nothing to play for outside of taking their 2019 frustrations out on each other. But hey, fantasy points are fantasy points, so who’s counting?! Anyway, given the questionable pitching matchups and lack of any BvP, it’s hard to get a feel for who the best targets might be here, so be sure to keep an eye on what the coaches think, should they be eyeballing this one.
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Machado, Renfroe, Hosmer, Myers
GPP note – There’s some potential here, but it’s a bit of a coin-flip, so defer to the coach’s notes to see if they like any of the targets here
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Escobar, Dyson, Walker
GPP note – Same as above
Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners
I was a bit surprised at last night’s 1-0 score, especially considering there were only 14 strikeouts in total. I don’t expect that to happen again, so look for this one to be a bit more exciting.
Athletics 5 star plays – Semien
Athletics 4 star plays – Olson, Chapman, Profar
GPP note – Go right back to the well here with some big stacks, as this high-ceiling team won’t stay down for long (they’ll want to heat up again for their wildcard game)
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Vogelbach, Narvaez, Seager, Crawford
GPP note – It’s a hit-or-miss matchup against Roark, but you can stack some lefties here in case his recently-high x/wOBA and SIERA numbers hold steady
Playing some cash games today? If you haven’t already, be sure to check out these 7 Tips for MLB Cash Games!
Atlanta Braves at New York Mets
Up next is a matchup that looks kind of scary on paper, and might make others look elsewhere, but I kind of really like the Braves here against Syndergaard. His strikeouts have been decent, but he’s starting to allow a lot of hits and a handful of homers, and this Braves team could use an exclamation mark on the season to get ready for their postseason push. There’s plenty of BvP here too, so don’t be shy!
Braves 5 star plays – none
Braves 4 star plays – Freeman (BvP), Acuna/Markakis (BvP), Donaldson, Albies
GPP note – It’s not often that we can call the Braves a contrarian stack, but I really like their spot here. Stack away!
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Conforto, Alonso, Nimmo, Cano
GPP note – My money says that Alonso cranks out one last homer on the season, so don’t be afraid to run him as a one-off if you aren’t stacking these lefties
Chicago Cubs at St Louis Cardinals
Oh man, these Cubs. After blowing their playoff hopes in spectacular fashion, they decided to put up some runs and win a couple against the Cardinals. They’ll look to make it three in a row against Hudson’s 5.73 SIERA, but they’ll have their work cut out for them seeing that the Cardinals are putting up runs too, and will have a decent matchup against Mills and the bullpen. This one look likes another potential shootout, so be sure to grab some stacks here.
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Schwarber, Kemp, Happ
GPP note – It’s another decent spot for them to do some damage, even if they’re without their two stars
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt, Fowler, Carpenter, DeJong
GPP note – Strong spot for the Cardinals again, and this one could easily go back and forth just like the other games have. Full stacks are in play here, as well as game stacks
Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals
And finally, our afternoon hammer game features the Twins and my Royals. How fitting that the last game I write up for the season have them? Almost makes up for that 100+ loss season! Well, not really, but I digress….
Anyway, we start with an 11 implied run total, and seeing that these two pitchers allowed a whopping 16 hits, 3 home runs, and recorded all of one strikeout in 4 innings of work last week, I don’t think that’s too far from what we can expect. Both sides are in play in this one, and some game stacks aren’t out of the question, either.
Twins 5 star plays – Cruz
Twins 4 star plays – Cave, Astudillo, Arraez
GPP note – It might depend on who actually starts, but like the Astros, they’ll be in a decent spot regardless, so don’t be afraid to take some cheaper stacks here if they present themselves
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Merrifield, Dozier (BvP), Soler
GPP note – Nobody likes to stack my Royals, so you can have this reasonably high ceiling stack all to yourself!
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for reading, and thank you all for coming along for the ride this season. Good luck today, and I’ll see you all in Slack!