Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! To kick things off, if you aren’t familiar with how I do things, you can get up to speed here: carnage rating system and tiers & classic batter sheets. If you have any questions, reach out to me in our coaching channels (@nillyJay or just swing by my channel #nillys-garage-nas-mlb).
Here is the initial carnage report for the day. You can keep an eye on it right here to get the most up-to-date information as the day goes on, and the final version for the main slate should be ready by around 4:30 pm central time.
A look at pitchers
With the regular season winding down, and most of the playoff spots clinched, most teams don’t have anything to play for with their remaining games, so keep that in mind as you’re looking at cash games (things are going to be a bit trickier to predict until the playoffs start).
That said, we have some interesting options on both slates, as well as a few decent targets and contrarian options to look at for GPP use. Strasburg and Kershaw lead the way for the early slate, and for the main slate, well…I guess if I had to pick a “cash option” it would have to be Manaea. The main slate is a little scary looking though, with an average SIERA of 5.13 on the board, and most of the pitchers are in the red. I’d probably just opt to go for GPP today!
Offenses to target
With all that red, of course, we have a lot of good looking options, such as Washington, Boston, Oakland, New York, and perhaps even the Angels. We’ll need to wait for Vegas’ input to have a better idea of where the chalk might be, but for now, we know we have multiple soft-throwing pitchers today. Be sure to keep an eye on the coach’s notes sheet to see where they’re leaning!
Full Count Breakdown
Early slate
Milwaukee Brewers at Cinncinati Reds
We’ll kick things off with the Brewers and Reds, two teams with two completely different approaches to the rest of the season. After building a comfortable lead over the Mets (and watching the Cubs absolutely fall apart), the Brewers are locked into the playoffs. However, I do think this game could go either way; either the Brewers try to keep the momentum going, or they may take their foot off the gas to try and rest up a little bit for the postseason, which could make things easier for Castillo.
In other words, it might be worth hedging this one with some Brewers stacks in some lineups and some Castillo led lineups in other parts of your lineup pool. As for the Reds, there’s some BvP here, so some exposure here couldn’t hurt.
Brewers 5 star plays – none
Brewers 4 star plays – Grandal/Moustakas (BvP), Hiura (BvP), Grisham
GPP note – If you stack here, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to consider hedging with some Castillo lineups. Be sure to include the BvP guys noted above
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Suarez (BvP), Votto (some BvP), VanMeter, Ervin/Peraza (BvP)
GPP note – There’s a fair amount of BvP to look at too, so don’t forget these guys and the 5.09 SIERA they’re facing in Anderson
Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers
Next up is a potential home run derby, as the Twins will take on one Jordan Zimmermann who just won’t stop allowing the hits and homers (seriously, he’s allowed 40 hits and 7 homers in his last 5 starts…yikes). The Twins are all but locked into the playoffs, though they haven’t locked up their division yet, so they do have something to play for here, so they’ll be quite happy to have this batting practice game today.
Twins 5 star plays – Cruz
Twins 4 star plays – Polanco, Rosario, Cave, Arraez
GPP note – We won’t need Vegas to tell us this will be a chalky offense, but you can’t argue the spot they’re in. Look for multiple homers and lots of hits/runs coming from this one. Virtually everybody is in play here
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Candelario?
GPP note – Tough matchup against Berrios who will be out to shut down this weak offense. Pass!
Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers
Next up is one of the most interesting pitching options on the day – Mike Minor. Now, I know his carnage rating sucks (doesn’t help that he had back to back duds against Oakland), and I know this isn’t exactly an easy/good matchup, but remember that Minor tends to really step up when he’s facing big-name teams (that and he pitched a solid 8-inning game against them back in June), so this could definitely be a spot for him to put up another decent (or even big) score. If you get nothing else from this today, be sure to have some exposure to him and his high ceiling at low ownership….in GPP only!
Red Sox 5 star plays – none
Red Sox 4 star plays – Martinez (BvP), Bogaerts
GPP note – There’s not a ton of success here against Minor outside of Martinez, so it might not be a bad idea to consider a fade in GPP
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Choo, Andrus, Santana
GPP note – It’s a good ol’ bullpen game, which is always a crapshoot when there are so many pitchers on the roster. I would either go heavy with full stacks and hope they go nuts or just fade them and hope the bullpen keeps them in check (without much in between)
Protip: always be sure to keep an eye on #dfs-weather and our MLB Weather Station Tab throughout the day!
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres
Say hello to what should be one of our chalk pitchers, Kershaw, who takes on a weakened Padres offense that probably won’t do a whole lot against him. It’s not exactly an easy matchup for Lucchesi here, but he’ll be pitching for pride if nothing else, so consider him for GPP use.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Bellinger
Dodgers 4 star plays – Pollock/Turner (BvP), Turner
GPP note – Tough matchup against Lucchesi, so smaller stacks or one-offs might be the better approach here
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Machado (BvP)
GPP note – Not much to love here at all. Machado can be used as a one-off, or you can run some contrarian stacks and hope Kershaw slept on the wrong side of the bed or something
Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants
Two pitchers (both with some struggles this season) face off here at one of the best pitcher’s parks in the game. This game would be super chalky if we were playing at Coors, but perhaps playing here might drop that a few ticks. Anyway, both offenses look to be in play here, and I wouldn’t mind running Beede out in a few lineups as a punt on DraftKings.
Rockies 5 star plays – Blackmon, Arenado (BvP)
Rockies 4 star plays – Story (BvP), Murphy
GPP note – I would treat them like the Rangers – go with big stacks or fade them in favor of some other stacks
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Posey/Longoria (BvP), Pillar, Slater, Dubon
GPP note – Freeland hasn’t shown anything to make me think we can’t target him, so fire away with some stacks!
Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals
To wrap up the early slate we the Phillies and Nationals, and even though the outcome of this game means nothing, I still expect these two to go after each other, as they aren’t exactly friendly towards on another. That especially goes true for Harper and Strasburg, as the whole “Harper returning home” narrative will likely never go away. Not as long as they keep booing him!
Phillies 5 star plays – none
Phillies 4 star plays – Harper (BvP), Hernandez/Miller
GPP note – Tough matchup against Strasburg, but a Harper one-off is certainly in play here if you aren’t stacking against him
Nationals 5 star plays – Rendon
Nationals 4 star plays – Turner, Soto, Dozier/Gomes (BvP), Zimmerman
GPP note – They’ll be happy to show up Harper, and we know Vargas can really implode when he has a bad game, so big stacks are in play here. Don’t neglect the bottom of the order!
Main slate
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates
Next up are two teams with absolutely nothing to play for, though one of them has some momentum going, while the other one (those Cubbies) has absolutely tanked over the last couple of weeks. This gives me some interset in Musgrove, and carnage certainly agrees!
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Rizzo, Schwarber, Castellanos
GPP note – I think they’ve thrown in the towel, so I can’t really say they’re going to be the team to go off today
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Osuna (BvP), Newman, Reyes, Cabrera
GPP note – People might not like to attack Quintana due to his name, but he’s not pitching very well right now and this game won’t matter. Some Pirates stacks are certainly in play as a lower-owned alternative today
Miami Marlins at New York Mets
The Mets can’t make the playoffs, but they still have something to look forward to in 2020, so I don’t expect them to just roll over and die for the rest of the season. They are in a good spot to do some damage here against Yamamoto, so consider some stacks here.
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Rojas (BvP)
GPP note – Tough matchup against Wheeler with nothing to play for. Outside of Rojas, I have nothing of interest here
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Conforto, Nimmo, Cano, Alonso
GPP note – The lefties + Alonso (who isn’t going to stop hitting bombs) are a great way to go here
Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox
After losing a very important game yesterday, the Indians will try again here against Cease and the White Sox, and if they want any shot at the playoffs, they NEED to win this one. Look for Civale and the crew to really step it up here, but don’t overlook Cease and his 534 KSCORE – he could be a decent GPP pivot.
Indians 5 star plays – none
Indians 4 star plays – Lindor/Santana/Ramirez
GPP note – This is practically a “do or die” game for the Indians, so look for them to go full throttle the entire way through. Big expensive stacks look to be a great way to go for GPP after the dud those guys put up yesterday
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Sanchez, Moncada, Abreu, Anderson/Jimenez
GPP note – The White Sox would love nothing more than to keep their divisional rival out of the playoffs, so look for them to fight back. Anything from one-offs to all-out game stacks are worth a look here
The starting lineups page is a useful tool to get a quick view of all of the teams, and I especially like the home run predictor to use for Monkey Knife Fight props!
Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels
It feels like 2018 again, as Miley is up to a 5.94 SIERA and can’t stop bleeding out the hits and runs. The Angels whooped up on him last week, where he allowed 4 runs on 4 hits (and 1 home run) in just one inning. That of course makes him a target again here, but since that might be where others are looking too, it might not be a bad idea to counter them with some Miley-led lineups, since he might revert back to where he was earlier this season and put up a big score.
Astros 5 star plays – Alvarez
Astros 4 star plays – Altuve, Springer, Brantley, Bregman, Gurriel
GPP note – It’s the Astros…of course they’re in play!
Angels 5 star plays – none
Angels 4 star plays – Pujols (BvP), Fletcher
GPP note – I have a feeling they might be a popular “contrarian” stack, so you can counter that by fading these guys and loading up on Miley instead
Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners
And finally, our hammer game features two teams that loved to beat up on each other earlier in the season, and while that was fun to watch, I don’t really expect this one to have all the haymakers thrown around. Well, not for Seattle at least, as Manaea has looked fantastic and he’ll get a weakened version of this team to pitch against. As for the Athletics, they need to win some games to stay ahead of the Indians, so look for them to go right after King Felix. Oakland is the way to go here on all fronts unless you’re feeling really bold and want to throw out some contrarian darts.
Athletics 5 star plays – Semien (BvP)
Athletics 4 star plays – Olson, Profar, Chapman
GPP note – They need to win here to stay ahead of the Indians, and Felix’s 5.59 SIERA is a great target for them to blow up. Big stacks are the way to go here, and they start with Semien
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Seager (some BvP)
GPP note – Manaea has been a difficult target and this offense doesn’t have much outside of Seager to really throw at him. Not much to love here
And that’s going to do it for this one. Good luck today, and I’ll see you all in Slack!