Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! To kick things off, if you aren’t familiar with how I do things, you can get up to speed here: carnage rating system and tiers & classic batter sheets. If you have any questions, reach out to me in our coaching channels (@nillyJay or just swing by my channel #nillys-garage-nas-mlb).
Here is the initial carnage report for the day. You can keep an eye on it right here to get the most up-to-date information as the day goes on, and the final version for the main slate should be ready by around 8:00 am central time (I’ll be on the road at the usual 10:00 am timeframe, so things will have to be a little early this time around).
A look at pitchers
It’s another Verlander/Darvish slate, and they are of course two of the top options on the board. At first glance, we can probably look to Verlander for an all-purpose/cash option, and look at Darvish and some of the others with high KSCORES for GPP use.
Offenses to target
There aren’t as many juicy targets today as we had yesterday, but there are still a few nice looking ones. Without any Vegas information to go off of at this time, it’s hard to know exactly where the chalk is going to be (outside of perhaps Baltimore), so keep an eye on the coach’s notes to see where they’re leaning!
Full Count Breakdown
Main slate
Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees
We’ll kick things off with another Blue Jays / Yankees matchup, but this time we’ll see Severino on the mound. The Yankees will face Thornton, who has a surprisingly low carnage rating in this matchup, but the Yankees do know him fairly well and there are a handful of homers against him already. I do expect at least one or two more to be added to that list by the end of this one, even if they are just solo shots.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Smoak (BvP), Biggio, Gurriel, Guerrero
GPP note – Tough matchup against Severino, but it may depend on how long he’s scheduled to pitch (only went 4 innings in his return). Keep an eye on the news/notes to see if the coaches like this offense or not
Yankees 5 star plays – LeMahieu (BvP)
Yankees 4 star plays – Gregorious (BvP), Judge/Stanton, Voit, Gardner
GPP note – Thornton may have a low carnage rating, but I do still expect a home run here or there, so don’t be afraid to attack it
Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles
After a long game last night, the Mariners and Orioles will face off here with a pretty taxed bullpen. That could spell disaster for both teams, which of course would mean tons of fantasy goodness for us! On the flip side, both pitchers will need to stay in for as long as possible and be on their game, so we can look to them for GPP use. Basically, all sides of this game are in play, one way or another.
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Long, Nola, Crawford, Lewis, Seager
GPP note – Tougher matchup against Means, but if they can get to him early they’ll get to this bad (and now tired) bullpen, which could open the flood gates
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Villar, Mancini, Santander, Nunez, Alberto, Severino
GPP note – Same as above. They won’t be sneaky but they’re in a great spot, especially if they can get to Gonzales quickly
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
A full-strength Red Sox and the Rays will face off next, with Eovaldi and Yarbrough taking the mound. Both teams have a fair amount of experience against the other’s starting pitcher here, so there could be a case made for both offenses here. I’m reluctant to suggest using the pitchers, but keep an eye on the coach’s notes to see what they think.
I should add that the Rays need to keep winning to stay above the Indians, as they’re only one game above them right now for the second wild-card slot.
Red Sox 5 star plays – none
Red Sox 4 star plays – Martinez/Devers (BvP), Betts, Vazquez (BvP)
GPP note – Yarbrough has been good, but these guys know him pretty well, so if nothing else, look for some one-offs or mini-stacks here
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Pham, Meadows, Lowe, Choi, Kiermaier
GPP note – Eovaldi has started to allow more and more hits in his short outings, and we know how hard he can implode when he has a bad game, so this would be a good place for some full stacks
Protip: always be sure to keep an eye on #dfs-weather and our MLB Weather Station Tab throughout the day!
Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers
Next up is a divisional rivalry game with the White Sox and Tigers, and I’m a little surprised at how high Boyd’s carnage rating was, considering he’s been pretty decent most of the year. As for Lopez, he’s always a decent target to attack, so it looks like both sides of this one are worth a look for some lower-owned stacks.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Abreu (BvP), Anderson, Jimenez, Moncada
GPP note – Boyd has been fairly good this year, but the White Sox know him well and carnage is certainly not on his side, so it wouldn’t hurt to run some stacks here
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Stewart, Castro, Candelario
GPP note – Nobody enjoys running Detroit stacks, but the matchup is definitely there. Potentially high ceiling stack with low ownership
Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins
Voth and Pablo Lopez are up next, and this one looks to be in the favor of the Nationals on all fronts. First, we know the Miami offense isn’t all that scary, and Voth has looked pretty darn good thus far. The Nationals have a fair bit of success against Lopez so far, and they need to keep the wins rolling in to stay comfortable in their wild-card spot, so look to them to be on the offensive here.
Nationals 5 star plays – Rendon/Soto (BvP)
Nationals 4 star plays – Turner/Eaton (BvP)
GPP note – These guys (especially the four above) know Lopez pretty well, so look for them to be on the attack
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Rojas, Diaz, Castro
GPP note – Not much to love here. Voth has been good and his team needs him to perform against this weak offense
New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds
Bauer and the Reds don’t have a whole lot to play for here, but the Mets still have an outside shot at landing a wild-card spot, so look for Stroman and the Mets to give it their best here. It’s not the easiest task for them, but that’ll just keep their ownership down, and it’s not out of the question for Bauer to have a bad start.
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Conforto/Nimmo/McNeil, Cano, Alonso, Frazier (BvP)
GPP note – Nobody will be on them, but they have some upside in this matchup if they can find a way to get to Bauer (they need to if they want to see the postseason)
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Votto, Aquino, VanMeter
GPP note – Not a very exciting stack, but some one-offs aren’t out of the question
The starting lineups page is a useful tool to get a quick view of all of the teams, and I especially like the home run predictor to use for Monkey Knife Fight props!
San Fransico Giants at Atlanta Braves
Another game that looks to be a bit lopsided, the Braves will host Webb and the lowly Giants, and I don’t think he’ll have much success slowing down this offense at all (even if they’ve never faced him). There’s not much to love from the Giants’ offense either, but Pillar has some BvP against Keuchel that could come into play.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Pillar (BvP), Posey, Longoria
GPP note – If nothing else, give Pillar a serious look here. Otherwise, a stack of righties isn’t a terrible idea here
Braves 5 star plays – Freeman, Acuna
Braves 4 star plays – McCann, Markakis
GPP note – They may have clinched, but look for them to keep the gas pedal mashed to the floor as they build momentum heading into October. Full stacks are in play
Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros
Our top gun of the day, Verlander, will host a Trout-less Angels, and this stacked Astros offense will get a crack at Rodriguez and the bullpen. Needless to say, this one has Houston written all over it. Short and sweet!
Angels 5 star plays – none
Angels 4 star plays – none
GPP note – There’s nothing of interest here
Astros 5 star plays – Alvarez, Springer, Altuve
Astros 4 star plays – Brantley, Bregman, Gurriel…everybody else
GPP note – The entire team is in play here, so go with some wrap-around stacks to help get a little different as they’re sure to be popular
Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers
The Brew Crew is up next, and they’ll be hosting Williams and the Pirates. The Brewers need to keep the wins coming in (in case the Cubs start winning), and this is a fantastic spot for them to grab another one. Look for their lefties to do some damage against Williams.
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Frazier, Reynolds, Moran
GPP note – Not a ton to love here, but nobody will be on them and their lefties can hit a home run here and there
Brewers 5 star plays – none
Brewers 4 star plays – Moustakas, Grandal, Thames, Grisham
GPP note – The lefties are in the better spot, so you can default to them, but adding a righty (like Hiura or Cain) could be a good way to be different
Playing some cash games today? If you haven’t already, be sure to check out these 7 Tips for MLB Cash Games!
Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins
Another surprisingly low carnage rating, Lopez rolls in with the third-best one on the slate at a mere 2.92. While I don’t expect him to be able to shut this offense down, it’s definitely worth noting. As for my Royals, while I don’t expect them to have a big game or anything, I think there are some decent pieces here to look at (especially the two noted with BvP, as they’ll be low-owned).
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Merrifield, Mondesi, Soler, Cuthbert/Dozier (BvP)
GPP note – If nothing else, give Cuthbert and Dozier a look for their BvP. Also, Soler likes to hit home runs, and he still needs another one to pass Trout (and to keep ahead of Cruz). Sadly, that’s about all we have to look forward to!
Twins 5 star plays – Cruz (BvP)
Twins 4 star plays – Polanco, Rosario, Arraez
GPP note – They don’t have much experience against Lopez, and his carnage rating is very low considering the matchup, so fading them in GPP might not be a terrible idea in case they bust
St Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs
After losing 5 straight, the Cubs are now 3 games behind the Brewers (who have a very good chance of winning against the Pirates). They desperately need some wins, and fortunately for them, they’ll have Darvish and his super low 2.16 carnage rating on the mound. They’ll get a familiar opponent in Mikolas, so look for them to turn things around here and put up a fight in this classic rivalry.
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 4 star plays – Fowler, Goldschmidt, Edman
GPP note – Difficult matchup against Darvish who has struck out 27 in his last two starts. He’ll look to add another 10+ strikeout game to it
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Rizzo, Schwarber, Bryant, Castellanos
GPP note – They NEED to win today, so look for the offense to step it up a bit here if they want a shot at the postseason
Late slate(s)
Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics
We’ll kick things off with the Rangers and Athletics, and like the first game of the day, we have another taxed bullpen here (the Rangers one, that is). The Athletics roasted them last night, and they’ll need to keep the wins coming in to stay ahead of the Rays and Indians (it’s a very close race). Lynn might be able to slow them down a bit, but if he slips up, the flood gates could quickly open.
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Choo, Calhoun, Mazara, Santana, Odor
GPP note – Roark has allowed 7 home runs in his last 5 starts, so look for a home run or two to come from these guys
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Semien (BvP), Olson, Chapman, Davis, Profar
GPP note – A fairly tough matchup against Lynn, but these guys have been hot and the Rangers don’t have a rested bullpen to fall back on if he falters
Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers
There’s honestly not a ton to love about this game. The Rockies are playing for pride at this point, but they’ll have a tough matchup against Ryu. The Dodgers are basically just coasting until the playoffs start, which means the starters could get pulled at a moment’s notice, as we’ve started to see more and more of lately. This one has GPP written all over it, so be careful here.
Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 4 star plays – Arenado/Blackmon (BvP), Story
GPP note – Arenado and Blackmon have some BvP and can sneak some homers against just about anybody, including Ryu
Dodgers 5 star plays – Bellinger
Dodgers 4 star plays – Muncy
GPP note – Some of these guys could get pulled after just 2 or 3 at-bats, so be careful. Keep an eye on Slack (or just ask the coaches) to see who is the most likely to get pulled. Pederson is likely at the top of that list
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres
The only thing either one of these two teams are playing for is the Diamondbacks, who would like to stay above .500 for the season, so look for them to beat up on Richards while Ray does his best to make short work of their offense.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – Escobar
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Rojas, Lamb, Dyson
GPP note – It’s not as exciting as clinching your division, but staying above .500 is a good goal for some teams. I mean hey, I wish my Royals were at .500 and not .365! Anyway, look for them to do some damage here, especially the lefties
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Machado, Margot, Myers (BvP)
GPP note – Tough matchup against Ray, and their manager was just fired. Morale (and their chances of doing much here) is probably pretty low
Philadelphia Phillies at Cleveland Indians
And finally, our hammer game features the Phillies and Indians. The Phillies don’t have much to play for (outside of being the bad guy), but the Indians are in a very close race with both the Athletics and Rays. After losing last night, they really need a win here to make up some ground.
Phillies 5 star plays – none
Phillies 4 star plays – Harper, Hernandez, Hoskins, Bruce
GPP note – No BvP against Plutko, and they have no stake in the Indians making the playoffs or not, but Harper likes to get booed so look for them to play the bad guy and put up a fight here
Indians 5 star plays – Lindor
Indians 4 star plays – Santana, Mercado, Freeman, Flaherty (BvP)
GPP note – Like the Cubs, they NEED to win today, so look for them to do something about it. Don’t overlook Flaherty and his BvP against Velasquez
And that’s going to do it for this one. Good luck today, and I’ll see you all in Slack!