Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! To kick things off, if you aren’t familiar with how I do things, you can get up to speed here: carnage rating system and tiers & classic batter sheets. If you have any questions, reach out to me in our coaching channels (@nillyJay or just swing by my channel #nillys-garage-nas-mlb).
Here is the initial carnage report for the day. You can keep an eye on it right here to get the most up-to-date information as the day goes on, and the final version for the main slate should be ready by around 4:00 pm central time.
A look at pitchers
It’s certainly not a day for the great matchups, as we have a ton of middle-of-the-road carnage ratings today on both slates. Fortunately, we do have some solid targets to consider, as we have five pitchers on the early slate with KSCOREs of 506 or better (though we only have one with a good SIERA..the rest are a little scary) on the early slate and a few of them on the main slate. Things may change as we dig in some more, but at first glance, it doesn’t look like the best slate for cash games in classic mode. Stay tuned, of course, because the coaches may find something we can use and they’ll put them on the coach’s notes sheet.
Offenses to target
Where there are iffy pitching matchups, there are plenty of offenses to consider. Like I mentioned earlier, we have a lot of pitchers with high SIERAs today, and a handful with equally as bad x/wOBA scores, so those guys might be good targets to consider. We’ll want to see what Vegas and the coaches think, but there are certainly some solid targets to consider today.
Full Count Breakdown
Early slate
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
We’ll kick off the day here with a rematch of the Phillies and Braves, two teams that have become pretty familiar with one another as of late. On the mound will be Nola and Soroka, two solid pitchers, but due to the increased familiarity, it’s hard to say that either one is in a “great spot” against the other team. Some contrarian/BvP stacks are in play on both sides of this one.
Phillies 5 star plays – none
Phillies 4 star plays – Harper, Hernandez, Realmuto, Kingery
GPP note – No home runs yet, but there’s a lot of positive BvP here against Soroka, so they’ve at least figured out how to keep the pressure on him. Not a bad place to go in case they do figure out how to really hammer down on him
Braves 5 star plays – none
Braves 4 star plays – Freeman/Acuna, Donaldson/Markakis (BvP)
GPP note – It’s never fun to attack Nola, but these guys do know how to attack him, so don’t be afraid to run some stacks here (there are multiple homers in this lineup against him)
Seattle Mariners at Pittsburgh Pirates
Up next we get the two pitchers that carry the worst carnage ratings on the slate (nearly the day). That sounds like fun! Needless to say, both offenses are worth a look here, as both will have soft targets to attack. As for the pitchers, well…use them at your own risk!
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Santana (BvP, if he plays), Nola, Moore
GPP note – It’s not a sexy stack by any means, but they do get a great matchup (especially the righties), so they could be a source of some fantasy production (be sure to give Santana a look if he makes his return here)
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Newman, Reynolds, Osuna
GPP note – No BvP against Kikuchi, but with as bad as he can be, it might not even matter. Favor the righties when possible and don’t be afraid to go here
San Francisco Giants at Boston Red Sox
In contrast to the previous game, we get the two pitchers with the best carnage ratings on this slate, as Bumgarner and Rodriguez will face off at good ol’ Fenway Park. Boston looks to be without their two big guns (Betts and Martinez), which might make this a pretty good spot for Bumgarner. Rodriguez has been pretty darn good himself, so look to this one to be a potential pitcher’s duel for the majority of the game.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Posey, Longoria/Rickard (BvP)
GPP note – Rodriguez has looked really good, so I wouldn’t go for big stacks against him, but some righties (especially Longoria and Rickard with their BvP) might be in play
Red Sox 5 star plays – none
Red Sox 4 star plays – Bogaerts, Vazquez, Devers
GPP note – Without their big guns, this might not be the best place to go for big stacks. A one-off or mini-stack might be the best approach
Protip: always be sure to keep an eye on #dfs-weather and our MLB Weather Station Tab throughout the day!
San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers
We head to the middle of the pack now, as we get two pitchers with very average carnage ratings, though after what Lamet did to the Brewers last night, I wouldn’t be too surprised to see Lucchesi have a rebound game here and get back to what we saw from him earlier in the season. There’s not much BvP on either side of this one (no home runs, at least), and we know the Padres have been pretty bad against right-handed pitching, so this one could be a bit of a “surprise” pitcher’s duel.
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Machado, Hosmer, Garcia
GPP note – No real BvP to go off of here, and they’ve been pretty bad. A lefty or two might be okay, but I’m not sure big stacks are the answer here
Brewers 5 star plays – none
Brewers 4 star plays – Grandal, Hiura, Cain
GPP note – Lucchesi is capable of shutting down an offense in a big game, so this might be the best place to attack either. Some righties could be worth a look, though, but I wouldn’t go overboard on the stacks here either
Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees
Did you notice that in all of the early games, on the initial carnage report above, each pitcher was directly above/below the pitcher they were facing, including this game? Interesting!
Anyway, our last game of the early games will be the Angels and Yankees, where Heaney and Happ will face off. Though Heaney has been pretty good (lowest SIERA on the day), he’ll have a tough matchup here against the home run happy Yankees, so both sides of this one might be worth a look.
Angels 5 star plays – none
Angels 4 star plays – Pujols/Calhoun (BvP), Fletcher
GPP note – Not the best matchup, but there is some BvP here that could be worth a look. Otherwise, look at the righties if you go here
Yankees 5 star plays – none
Yankees 4 star plays – LeMahieu, Judge, Torres, Stanton, Voit
GPP note – Heaney has been good, but these guys love hitting bombs against anybody. Even if you don’t stack, some one-offs and/or mini-stacks are in play here, as there’s bound to be a homer or two at some point
Main slate
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles
To kick off the main slate, we get a Camden Yards game with two teams that enjoy hitting home runs against weak pitching…and that’s exactly what they get here. Look for the pitchers here to have some miserable scores to go with all the offensive firepower that’s bound to be unleashed. Exposure to both offenses would probably be a good idea!
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Bichette, Biggio, Gurriel, Guerrero, Smoak
GPP note – Most of this offense is in play, considering they get to face some bad pitching at Camden Yards
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Villar, Mancini, Santander, Nunez, Severino
GPP note – Same as above. You can attack both sides of this one
Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians
Easily the best matchup for a pitcher on the day, Clevinger will get to take on the weak Detroit offense here, making him a go-to cash game option if you’re playing cash games on this tiny slate. If not, he’s certainly play in GPP too, as he has one of the easiest paths to a nice score. On the other side, Zimmermann is no stranger to getting beat up on and the Indians know him fairly well, so you can look to the Indians’ offense here, too.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Cabrera
GPP note – Bad matchup against Clevinger. Pass
Indians 5 star plays – none
Indians 4 star plays – Lindor, Santana
GPP note –
The starting lineups page is a useful tool to get a quick view of all of the teams, and I especially like the home run predictor to use for Monkey Knife Fight props!
St Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs
Up next is another potential pitcher’s duel, as we get two pitchers who have been doing very well (Flaherty has elite-level x/wOBA numbers), and even with as well as these teams have been doing, I think these two will be able to slow down the other offense (at least for a while). It’s certainly risky though, so I would look to them primarily as GPP options (unless the coach’s notes say otherwise).
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 4 star plays – Ozuna (BvP)
GPP note – Outside of Ozuna’s BvP, I’m not too thrilled about attacking here, but you could run some stacks on the hope that they are amped up for this classic rivalry
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Bryant, Schwarber, Castellanos
GPP note – No real BvP here either (not without Rizzo), and Flaherty has been very good, so big stacks don’t feel like the way to go here either
Kanas City Royals at Minnesota Twins
And finally, our hammer game features my Royals heading up and over to Minnesota to take on Gibson and the Twins. I’m not being a homer here, but there is some merit to running some KC stacks (BvP, high wOBA, divisional rivalry), and nobody ever likes playing them, so you’d have those stacks all to yourself. As for the Twins, well, the righties here will be in a good spot to do some damage, too.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Mondesi (BvP), Merrifield, Gordon/O’Hearn (BvP)
GPP note – Sort of a hit-or-miss matchup, but there’s a path to some damage here, so if you want a low-owned stack with a decently high ceiling, here you go
Twins 5 star plays – Cruz
Twins 4 star plays – Sano, Polanco, Garver, Cron
GPP note – Some big righty stacks could go a long way here. Stack big if you go here, as they love to randomly put up 10+ runs…especially against my guys!
And that’s going to do it for this one. Good luck today, and I’ll see you all in Slack!