Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! To kick things off, if you aren’t familiar with how I do things, you can get up to speed here: carnage rating system and tiers & classic batter sheets. If you have any questions, reach out to me in our coaching channels (@nillyJay or just swing by my channel #nillys-garage-nas-mlb).
Here is the initial carnage report for the day. You can keep an eye on it right here to get the most up-to-date information as the day goes on, and the final version for the main slate should be ready by around 4:00 pm central time.
A look at pitchers
It’s a short slate with only a few strong pitching options, so if you’re playing cash games today, your choices will be limited. Strasburg stands out as a top option, especially when you look at the BvP history the Cardinals have against him. Ray is another good option, and it might just have to be those two for cash games unless we find somebody else (keep an eye on the coach’s notes page to see what we find). Matz has the best carnage rating on the board, as well as a nice 508 KSCORE, so he could be an interesting GPP option.
Offenses to target
There’s no shortage of good targets here, as we have four teams with red carnage rating matchups, as well as a few with high x/wOBA and nearly the entire slate facing somebody with a SIERA of 4.51 or worse. It might be a small slate, but I expect to see a few big games come from it.
It won’t do much good to just list them all right here, so keep an eye on the coach’s notes page to see which ones we like the most!
Full Count Breakdown
Early slate
Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers
Our lone early game features one of our showdown options today, where the Orioles and Tigers will face off one last time for the season. As we’ve seen, they have no problem putting up runs against one another, but seeing as Means has one of the best carnage ratings on the day (3.84), I expect most of the production to come from the Orioles again. Keep an eye on the coach’s notes page for more information about this showdown game!
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Villar, Mancini, Santander
GPP note – No BvP history against Alexander, but all the righties the Orioles have to throw at him should be in a good spot to do some damage again
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Candelario, Reyes
GPP note – It’s a good spot for Means, which means (haha) this offense may have a pretty limited ceiling once again
Main slate
San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers
To kick off this massive 7-game slate, we have the Padres visiting Davies and the Brewers. The Padres will have Richards on the mound in his 2019 debut, somebody who the Brewers have never actually faced before. They’re loaded with potent lefties though, so don’t be afraid to go here (Vegas gave them a solid 5+ implied total to open with).
Padres 5 star plays –
Padres 4 star plays – Machado, Hosmer/Renfroe (BvP)
GPP note – They’ve stunk against righties, so big stacks might not be the answer here (though some smaller stacks or one-offs should be okay)
Brewers 5 star plays – none
Brewers 4 star plays – Moustakas, Grandal, Grisham, Thames
GPP note – Their season isn’t over just because they lost Yelich. They still need some wins, so look for the lefties to step it up a bit here
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins
Next up is a divisional rivalry game, as the White Sox will meet up with the Twins. There’s a fair amount of BvP on both sides of this one, so while both teams are worth a look here, the Twins will certainly be the more popular option with their 6+ implied total. Don’t overlook the White Sox though, as they’re in a spot to make for some nice contrarian stacks.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Abreu/Sanchez/Moncada/McCann/Garcia/Jimenez (all six of them have at least one homer and a lot of experience against Berrios), Anderson
GPP note – A potentially high-ceiling contrarian stack with all the experience/BvP they have against Berrios
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Kepler/Polanco/Cruz/Rosario/Sano (BvP)
GPP note – They’ll be popular, but they’re in a great spot to do some damage here
Washington Nationals at St Louis Cardinals
We get one of (if not the) top pitching options next, with Strasburg and the Nationals taking on Hudson and the Cardinals. The Nationals had a big win over the Braves yesterday, and with how tight the wild card picture is, they need to keep that going. Look for them to keep the momentum going against Hudson and his 6.11 carnage rating.
Nationals 5 star plays – Rendon, Soto
Nationals 4 star plays – Turner, Eaton
GPP note – They need to keep the wins coming, so stack here for a high-ceiling alternative to some of the chalkier options
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 4 star plays – Ozuna (BvP)
GPP note – Tough matchup against Strasburg who will need to be at his best to do his part to secure another victory. You may want to pass on these guys
Protip: always be sure to keep an eye on #dfs-weather and our MLB Weather Station Tab throughout the day!
Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs
Speaking of a tight wild card picture, the Cubs are in the same spot as the Nationals, so I expect them to try and beat up on Gausman and the Reds’ bullpen here. Even though the wind might not be favorable, I still expect them to be on their game here, as every single game matters from here on out.
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Votto (BvP), Aquino, Suarez, Peraza (BvP)
GPP note – Hamels can be really good a times, so I would either stack big here and hope for him to implode, or pass on the Reds and use Hamels in GPP instead (smaller stacks don’t sound as appealing in this situation)
Cubs 5 star plays – Rizzo, Bryant, Castellanos (BvP)
Cubs 4 star plays – Schwarber/Heyward/Conteras (BvP)
GPP note – Several Cubbies have homers against Gausman in only a handful of at-bats. It could get ugly fast!
New York Mets at Colorado Rockies
Ah, good ol’ Coors. This time it’s the Mets who get to take a crack at it, and Vegas sure loves their chances here with that 7.5+ implied total they started with. There are some dangerous bats here, so even though they’re expensive, expect them to be popular.
Mets 5 star plays – Conforto
Mets 4 star plays – Alonso, McNeil, Cano, Nimmo
GPP note – Chalk stack, so decide if you want to eat some chalk or fade it in favor of one or two of the other high-ceiling offenses today
Rockies 5 star plays – Arenado (BvP), Blackmon
Rockies 4 star plays – Story, Desmond
GPP note – The usual suspects are in play here, but lean on the righties for the best spot (especially Arenado and his BvP against Matz)
The starting lineups page is a useful tool to get a quick view of all of the teams, and I especially like the home run predictor to use for Monkey Knife Fight props!
Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks
We get another top-end pitcher here, as Ray will take on the weakened Marlins and their 3.5 implied total. The Diamondbacks were given a 5.5 implied total, which is pretty stout but will go overlooked on this slate, so they’re another high-ceiling team that might not see a ton of ownership. There’ no BvP here to speak of for them, but with how Lopez has been slipping recently, it may not even matter.
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Rojas (BvP)
GPP note – Not much to love here, but Rojas could make a decent contrarian one-off
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Escobar, Marte, Walker
GPP note – A high-ceiling stack that might go a little under the radar. Use them to pivot away from Coors/Twins, or use them to complete those stacks with some lower-owned bats
Kansas City Royals at Oakland Athletics
And finally, our hammer game features my Royals taking on the Athletics. With a 6.25 implied total (and a lot of motivation to keep winning games), I see this game heavily favored towards Oakland here. There are some pieces of KC that are in play here (mostly Soler), but the bottom of the order is a mess right now, so tread carefully.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Soler, Mondesi, Merrifield
GPP note – Soler is trying to win the AL home run title (Trout leads him by 1, and he’s done for the year), so it’s not a bad idea to just keep using him until the KC season is over
Athletics 5 star plays – Semien
Athletics 4 star plays – Olson, Davis, Profar (BvP)
GPP note – I hate talking bad about my guys, but Sparkman just isn’t all that good, and this Oakland team is running hot and they are going to be highly motivated to beat up on KC to help keep themselves at the top of the wild card race. Full stacks are firmly in play here
And that’s going to do it for this one. Good luck today, and I’ll see you all in Slack!