Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner, but I’ll leave that for our VIP Members. Below are three pitchers that I find particularly interesting and are in good spots here on this slate.
- James Paxton – Paxton draws a matchup with the Texas Rangers here and they are a team that I’m really never too high on regardless of the high run totals that the Texas air brings them. They are at a 4 run implied run total right now which isn’t too terrible considering it’s going to be around 90 degrees. Paxton is a guy with elite strikeout upside and is striking out opposing batters at a 29.5% rate on the season. The Rangers are striking out at a 24.2% rate against left-handed pitching to go along with this. In his lone matchup with the Rangers this season he put up 42.6 Draftkings points in 7 innings of work. He’s a great SP1 option.
- Anthony DeSclafani – I write up DeSclafani because he is the highest-ranked pitcher on Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Pittsburgh has a 3.9 implied run total here and targeting pitchers in Pittsburgh is something I love doing, as this ballpark is very pitcher-friendly. This Pirates team has really gotten pretty bad with the absence of Josh Bell and Starling Marte, so targeting them seems like a solid option. They don’t strike out much, just 18% on the season, but I still think the price warrants this as a nice spot for DeSclafani.
- Tyler Glasnow – Glasnow is expected to be limited to 3-4 innings in this game, but we’ve seen what he can do in short stints like this already. In his past two games, he hasn’t gone more than three innings but has scored more than 15 Draftkings points in both games. If he can somehow sneak out 4 innings here he could find himself in the low 20’s for Draftkings points. He’s got a 33.5% strikeout rate on the season and at his price makes a lot of sense as an SP2 option.
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Full Count Breakdown:
Detroit Tigers (+153) @ Chicago White Sox (-166)
This is the lone early game on today’s full slate of games. It will feature a matchup between Ivan Nova and Tyler Alexander. We will need to watch out for the weather in this game, so having that Weather Station tab open before locking those lineups would seem like a smart thing to do. Both of these pitchers are pretty bad, but so are the lineups. If I were to pick a side to stack for an early slate I would go with the White Sox strictly because of the talent on the team is much better than the Tigers. Due to the pricing being much different than the main slate I’ll let the coaches break this one down for you in slack. Also, be sure to check out our Coaches Notes/Player Picks on this game for a more in-depth look on player analysis since the pricing for a showdown slate is much different than the full slate.
-> COACHES NOTES/PLAYER PICKS <-
Cincinnati Reds (-141) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (+131)
I wrote-up Anthony DeSclafani in my pitcher’s section and makes a lot of sense in that price range. The Pirates simply aren’t good right now (although they did just sweep the Cubs). DeSclafani has at least 20 Draftkings points in four of his last five games. Steven Brault will start for the Pirates and give the Reds an implied run total of 4.7 runs here. I don’t love stacking teams in Pittsburgh, so I will likely just stick with mini-stacks and one-offs from the Reds.
CIN 5-star plays: Aristides Aquino, Eugenio Suarez
4-star plays: Michael Lorenzen
GPP Note: Just one-offs and mini-stacks for me here, I don’t love stacking in Pittsburgh
PIT 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Adam Frazier
GPP Note: I like Anthony DeSclafani here quite a bit, however, he does struggle with lefties, so if you need a value one-off option I wouldn’t blame you for one of these guys.
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-> NFL Strategy <-
Miami Marlins (+174) @ Philadelphia Phillies (-189)
I almost wrote-up Vince Velasquez as a pitching option here but decided I liked Tyler Glasnow more at a similar price tag. If the pitch-count on Glasnow worries you, you can certainly pivot to Velasquez here, the Marlins have just a 3.8 implied run total here. Pablo Lopez will draw the start for the Marlins, he has given up at least three runs in three straight games. I don’t love this Phillies offense but there are some nice one-off options for sure, they’re similar to the Reds in that a mini-stack is probably as far as I would go on them.
MIA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Jon Berti, Jorge Alfaro
GPP Note: I like Velasquez a decent amount here and on a full slate there are better options than a Marlins stack.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins
4-star plays: Brad Miller
GPP Note: Some elite upside power options here, I don’t hate a mini-stack.
The starting lineups page is a useful tool to get a quick view of all of the teams, and gives you a nice clean view of the DFSArmy grades as well!
Cleveland Indians (+129) @ Washington Nationals (-140)
This is a massive series for both teams as they jockey for wild-card positioning. Austin Voth will start for the Nationals and is priced way up for some reason, he’s a hard fade for me in this matchup against the Indians. Cleveland will send Zach Plesac to the mound who has been very up and down as of late. I would prefer to stick with the offenses here and would prefer the Nationals of the two. They have an implied run total of 5.2 runs here and have proven GPP winning upside, they’re a secondary stack for me on this slate.
CLE 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Yasiel Puig
4-star plays: Oscar Mercado, Carlos Santana
GPP Note: I like the Indians slightly less than the Nats, but this is still a good spot for them. This lineup gets a lot better with Jose Ramirez in it.
WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto, Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner
4-star plays: Victor Robles, Adam Eaton
GPP Note: Secondary stack for me here, they have very nice upside, but will cost you.
Tampa Bay Rays (-214) @ Toronto Blue Jays (+196)
I wrote-up Tyler Glasnow in my pitcher’s section and I like him a lot for the price tag. He started the season off very well before getting injured and has come back looking great as well. With an implied run total of 3.8 runs, I’ll take the side of Glasnow over the Blue Jays offense. The Jays will start TJ Zeuch here who has a 43.4% hard contact rate on the season. The Rays have an implied run total of 5.8 runs here and are one of my favorite stacks on the slate, making them a tier-one stack.
TBR 5-star plays: Austin Meadows, Tommy Pham, Ji-Man Choi
4-star plays: Joey Wendle, Travis d’Arnaud, Avisail Garcia
GPP Note: I love the Rays here, they are the road team as massive favorites which guarantees ninth-inning at-bats.
TOR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Cavan Biggio, Vlad Guerrero Jr.
GPP Note: I like Tyler Glasnow here, so just one-offs for the Jays.
Atlanta Braves (+109) @ New York Mets (-118)
This game features a nice matchup of Marcus Stroman and Dallas Keuchel. If I had to pick a pitcher I would side with Keuchel simply because the Braves offense is so much better than the Mets. In two starts against the Mets, this season Keuchel is averaging 25.8 Draftkings points per game. That said, Stroman has scored at least 23 Draftkings points in two of his last three games.
ATL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson
GPP Note: This Braves team is very cheap relative to where they usually are. That said, Stroman has a hard contact rate of just 34.1% this season, I’ll likely go elsewhere.
NYM 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto
GPP Note: Dallas Keuchel is my preferred pitcher in this game, I’ll stick with power one-offs if I end up going here.
Baltimore Orioles (+191) @ Boston Red Sox (-208)
The Orioles will send Asher Wojciechowski to the mound here and I think we all recall this matchup from earlier this season. When most of the industry was on the Red Sox stack, Woj went out and threw an absolute gem. That said, I’ll side with the Red Sox here as Woj hasn’t pitched all that well as of late. The Red Sox have an implied run total of 6.3 and are a tier-one stack for me on this slate. The Red Sox will send Nathan Eovaldi to the mound and I actually love him in this spot for almost $4k against a bad Orioles team. He’s looking like he’s stretched out and is coming off a nice start against the Rays in which he scored 17.5 Draftkings points. He makes a lot of sense as an SP2 in order to jam in an elite stack with a high priced pitcher.
BOS 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, Rafael Devers, JD Martinez, Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: Mitch Moreland, Andrew Benintendi
GPP Note: I love the Red Sox here, they’re an elite stack at home on this slate.
BAL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Jonathan Villar, Trey Mancini
GPP Note: I love Eovaldi here, so I will likely have a hedge stack, but that’s as far as I’ll go.
New York Yankees (-262) @ Texas Rangers (+238)
I wrote-up James Paxton as my expensive option on this slate and I really do like him in a great matchup against the Rangers. He’s pricey, but for good reason, he makes a lot of sense as your SP1 on this slate. The Rangers will send Joel Palumbo to the mound who has an era of 9.22 and a hard contact rate of 48.8%. The Yankees are an elite stack here as they are guaranteed ninth-inning at-bats in a hot game in Texas.
NYY 5-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres, Edwin Encarnacion
GPP Note: The Yankees crush left-handed pitching and have an implied run total of 6.7 runs. They are a tier-one stack on this slate.
TEX 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I’ll have a lot of James Paxton interest, so no Rangers for me.
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Milwaukee Brewers (-164) @ Colorado Rockies (+151)
The Brewers are the hottest team in baseball and are on a seven-game win streak heading into this game. With three games left in the season, they are one game back of the Cardinals for the NL Central lead, so the motivation will certainly be there for this team even after clinching a playoff birth. They will send Zach Davies to the mound who really has been pretty bland as of late. Craig Counsell has no issue with going to his expanded bullpen early, so I’ll fade Davies here. But the offense I really want a piece of is the Brewers against Senzentela. They have an implied run total of 7.3 runs here and we all know what Coors field is capable of, they’re right up there with the Yankees and Red Sox as a top stack on the slate.
MIL 5-star plays: Ryan Braun, Trent Grisham, Keston Hiura, Yasmani Grandal, Mike Moustakas
4-star plays: Eric Thames, Orlando Arcia
GPP Note: They have the highest implied run total on the slate, I like them a lot if you can find the salary to get to them.
COL 5-star plays: Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon
4-star plays: Samuel Hilliard
GPP Note: I don’t like them as much as the Brewers but they have a 5.8 implied run total. They’re a tier-two stack for me.
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Chicago Cubs (+203) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-222)
Joe Maddon has come out and said he doesn’t plan on playing his “A” lineup for the final series of the year, so just be mindful that this lineup may not be what we expect. Also, I hate Joe Maddon. Anyway, the Cardinals need to continue to win to secure the NL Central so they will be going for a win full force here with Dakota Hudson on the mound. I don’t mind him as a mid-range pitching option especially if this Cubs lineup is watered down. Chicago will send Alec Mills to the mound and has really been pretty solid in his short-inning starts. I don’t really have a lot that I’m interested in from the Cardinals but you can make a case for a mini-stack or some one-offs.
CHC 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber
GPP Note: I like Dakota Hudson here and with an expected weak lineup from the Cubs, not much interest in the bats.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Marcell Ozuna
4-star plays: Paul DeJong
GPP Note: Nothing that I’m too thrilled about here, nice one-off power options.
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Minnesota Twins (-217) @ Kansas City Royals (+199)
Jose Berrios will take the mound for the Twins and gets a nice matchup with the Royals here. Berrios has not pitched well against the Royals this season, averaging just 11.8 Draftkings points per game in three starts. That’s a big enough sample size to where I’ll look somewhere else in that price range. Eric Skoglund draws the start for the Royals and has a 51.4% hard contact rate on the season. The Twins have an implied run total of over six and make my long list of teams in my tier-one for stacks.
MIN 5-star plays: Mitch Garver, Nelson Cruz, Eddie Rosario, Miguel Sano
4-star plays: Jorge Polanco, CJ Cron
GPP Note: I love the Twins here against Skoglund, great stacking option if you have the money.
KCR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Adalberto Mondesi
GPP Note: I believe in the talent of Berrios, but he’s struggled this season against the Royals so you can make a case for some low-owned one-off options.
San Diego Padres (+123) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-134)
Taylor Clarke draws the start for the Dbacks and is a guy that I’ve been stacking against all season. The only problem is the Padres lineup isn’t exactly a great one. They have an implied run total of 4.5 runs and makes a lot of sense as a GPP stack, but I’m not going too crazy. Eric Lauer will draw the start for the Padres and he’s a pretty average pitcher. Without Ketel Marte this Dbacks lineup is a little soft, so I’ll likely fade here as well.
SDP 5-star plays: Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer, Wil Myers
4-star plays: Josh Naylor
GPP Note: Great GPP stack, but that’s as far as I’ll go
ARI 5-star plays: Eduardo Escobar
4-star plays: Christian Walker, Wilmer Flores
GPP Note: Just one-offs for me here.
Houston Astros (-204) @ Los Angeles Angels (+187)
Jose Urquidy is an interesting low-range pitching option here, the Angels have an implied run total of under four runs and Urquidy has proven upside this season. Patrick Sandoval will draw the start for the Angels and is a young pitcher that I think will have a nice career in this league. That said, this Astros lineup is tough and we just saw him go for -0.3 Draftkings points against them in his last start, so I’ll wait for a better spot on him.
HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman, George Springer, Jose Altuve
4-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Michael Brantley
GPP Note: They are a secondary stack for me just because I think Sandoval has some good stuff and there are other teams I like more on this particular slate.
LAA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: This lineup is really pretty bad without Trout, Ohtani, and Upton. Get some Urquidy if you fall in that range of pitching.
Oakland Athletics (-199) @ Seattle Mariners (+183)
Justus Sheffield will get the start for the Mariners and just feels too pricey here, I do like his talent so I won’t be going wild with the A’s offense but I won’t be getting to him as a pitching option. Mike Fiers will go for the A’s and he’s really only a guy I target when he’s at home. However, this Mariners offense is bad and have a similarly big ballpark to the A’s so I don’t hate going to him here if you land on him. He’s coming off a massive 30 point Draftkings outing against the Rangers.
OAK 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Marcus Semien, Ramon Laureano
GPP Note: I like Sheffield as a pitcher, this is a big ballpark, I’m not going crazy here.
SEA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I can see myself getting to some Mike Fiers in this spot.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-183) @ San Francisco Giants (+168)
The pivot off of James Paxton is Walker Buehler against the Giants. However, the Dodgers really don’t have a lot to play for so they won’t make Beuhler go any longer than he needs to here. He’s still an elite option in this park against this offense, but I just like Paxton’s upside a bit more. Johnny Cueto will draw the start for the Giants and is a guy that has pitched pretty well since coming back. I don’t trust Dave Roberts at this point in the season to give his guys full amounts of at-bats here, so I’ll go with a different stack on this slate.
LAD 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger
4-star plays: Corey Seager, Max Muncy
GPP Note: The Dodgers are more of a GPP stack for me, there are a number of different teams I like more than them on this slate.
SFG 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Walker Beuhler is an elite option, no need to go here.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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The only thing you are missing at this point is the key to unlock the next level of your game. Come inside and check us out!! We have the experts sharing their secrets and experience on a daily basis. Combine that with the actual ability to ask them questions and get quick answers in return, and you have a recipe for success that puts our army hats on leaderboards all over the face of DFS.