Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are three pitchers that I find particularly interesting and are in good spots here on this slate.
- Shane Bieber
- Zack Greinke
- Randy Dobnak
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Full Count Breakdown:
Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals (-160)
Drew Smyly vs Anibal Sanchez
This game has opened with a total set at 10 runs. The Nationals picked up a doubleheader sweet on Tuesday and will look to cement a spot in the playoffs on Wednesday. Smyly has given up 12 HRs in 56.1 innings as a member of the Phillies this season. I really like the Nationals here as they have a lineup that can do a ton of damage against LHPs. Sanchez has given up 10 earned runs in 20.1 innings against the Phillies but he has picked up 20 Ks in those innings.
PHI 5-star plays: JT Realmuto, Jean Segura
4-star plays: Cesar Hernandez, Bryce Harper
GPP Note: Hitting just .202 with 28 runs over their last 8 games
WAS 5-star plays: Trea Turner, Ryan Zimmerman
4-star plays: Anthony Rendon, Yan Gomes/Kurt Suzuki
GPP Note: Just 17 extra-base hits over their last 7 games
Minnesota Twins (-NA) vs Detroit Tigers
Randy Dobnak vs Daniel Norris/Drew VerHagen
The Twins were going to use Kyle Gibson but he ended up pitching in relief on Tuesday so we need to pay attention to what they are going to do in this spot. The Tigers have been piggy-backing Norris and VerHagen recently with Norris pitching 2-3 innings and then VerHagen following. Both of the Tigers pitchers have allowed a bunch of baserunners against the Twins this season but also have a lot of Ks (mostly VerHagen). The Twins are looking to clinch their spot in the postseason.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Jonathan Schoop
4-star plays: Eddie Rosario, Luis Arraez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .207 over their last 6 games
DET 5-star plays: Victor Reyes
4-star plays: Christin Stewart
GPP Note: Just 13 runs over their last 6 games
Milwaukee Brewers (-130) vs Cincinnati Reds
Jordan Lyles vs Tyler Mahle
Lyles has made 2 starts against CIN this season and has totaled just 9 innings in those starts. He had some control issues as he walked 5 in those 9 innings. He has given up more than 2 earned runs in just 1 start over his last 10. Mahle is coming off of a very strong start against the Cubs but he does have struggles with LHBs and the Brewers should have a number of them in their lineup on Wednesday.
MIL 5-star plays: Eric Thames, Keston Hiura
4-star plays: Trent Grisham, Lorenzo Cain
GPP Note: 65 Ks over their last 6 games
CIN 5-star plays: Eugenio Suarez
4-star plays: Joey Votto, Derek Dietrich
GPP Note: Just 12 runs over their last 5 games
Chicago Cubs (-180) vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Jon Lester vs Dario Agrazal
Prior to his recent start against PIT, Lester had been dominant against them this season. I expect him to do so again in this spot as the Pirates lineup has become very watered down without Bell and Marte. Agrazal is not a strikeout pitcher and he has given up 2+ HRs in 4 of his last 9 starts. The Cubs’ backs are up against the wall and they really need to win here to not be shutout of the postseason (their chances are extremely slim).
CHC 5-star plays: Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo
4-star plays: Nicholas Castellanos, Willson Contreras
GPP Note: Just 19 runs over their last 6 games
PIT 5-star plays: Adam Frazier
4-star plays: Jose Osuna, Kevin Newman
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .081 over their last 6 games
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Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays (-160)
Gabriel Ynoa vs Jacob Waguespack
This game should have some more fireworks (the two teams have combined for 36 runs in 2 games). The Orioles staff continues to give up HRs at a ridiculous pace while their offense is waking up while letting all of the young kids play. The Orioles have scored double figures in each of the first two games of this series. This game is going to win more people money on Wednesday.
BAL 5-star plays: Trey Mancini, Austin Hays
4-star plays: Dwight Smith Jr, Jonathan Villar
GPP Note: 15 HRs and 48 runs over their last 7 games
TOR 5-star plays: Cavan Biggio
4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr, Randal Grichuk
GPP Note: 14 HRs and 43 runs over their last 7 games
Miami Marlins vs New York Mets (-380)
Robert Dugger vs Jacob deGrom
This spot is all about the Mets and deGrom as he hones in on another Cy Young award. Mets bats are definitely dangerous enough to win somebody a GPP in this spot but I probably will stick to mini-stacks of them in hopes of hitting the guy that picks up the HR or two (Alonso). Surprisingly, a few Marlins bats have had success against deGrom in their careers. He has held hitters to an average below .200 when pitching at home this season and his K numbers are slightly better on his home mound.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Isan Diaz, Jon Berti
GPP Note: Team ISO of .198 over their last 6 games
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil
4-star plays: Amed Rosario, Michael Conforto
GPP Note: 11 HRs over their last 6 games
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New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays
Jonathan Loaisiga vs Charlie Morton
We have to see what the Yankees are going to do. I have read some rumors that Chad Green will open with Happ to follow him. Let me say this, I absolutely HATE the idea of using an opener. It makes no sense to me at this point as it just guarantees that you use a relief pitcher in a game that they may not be needed in. Morton is a super-strong SP with strong K ability but the match-up is less than ideal. He has given up 11 runs and 4 HRs in 15.1 innings against the Yankees this season. Looks like Loaisiga will make the start but we just have no idea at this point in the morning how long he will be going.
NYY 5-star plays: Brett Gardner
4-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Giancarlo Stanton
GPP Note: 12 HRs over their last 6 games
TB 5-star plays: Austin Meadows
4-star plays: Tommy Pham, Ji-Man Choi
GPP Note: 75 Ks over their last 6 games
Cleveland Indians (-300) vs Chicago White Sox
Shane Bieber vs Ross Detwiler
Bieber is in an absolute smash spot as he has dominated when pitching on the road this season and he is a HUGE -300 favorite. He has had some struggles with the White Sox this season (still 21 Ks in 19.2 innings). The White Sox bats have been hot recently but they were cooled down by the Indians and Clevinger on Tuesday night. I expect Bieber to continue that performance, maybe not to the same degree but his floor should be pretty high.
CLE 5-star plays: Carlos Santana, Yasiel Puig
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Franmil Reyes, Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: 39 runs over their last 6 games
CWS 5-star plays: Yoan Moncada
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Eloy Jimenez
GPP Note: Hitting .325 with an OPS of .843 over their last 5 games but just 21 runs scored
Boston Red Sox (-150) vs Texas Rangers
Rick Porcello vs Kolby Allard
I was thinking this game would be a spot for some runs and then I saw the initial total that was set. Seeing the total at 12 runs as of Tuesday night is insane and makes me believe we HAVE to have exposure to this game in our contests. Game stacks, mini-stacks, one-offs, and individual team stacks are all on my list.
BOS 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, JD Martinez
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers
GPP Note: 70 Ks over their last 7 games
TEX 5-star plays: Rougned Odor
4-star plays: Elvis Andrus, Nomar Mazara
GPP Note: 10 HRs and an ISO of .216 over their last 5 games
Atlanta Braves (-210) vs Kansas City Royals
Mike Soroka vs Mike Montgomery
Soroka’s road numbers in 2019 have been absolutely elite and he should dominate in this spot as long as the Braves lineup doesn’t look like a spring training lineup. Montgomery has been solid at times as an SP with the Royals but this spot is not it as the Braves can’t smack around LHPs. Pay attention to the lineup that they send out and be willing to pivot should it be weak. Sounds like Soroka will be limited to around 60 pitches in this start!
ATL 5-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Ronald Acuna Jr
4-star plays: Adam Duvall, Josh Donaldson
GPP Note: Just 16 extra-base hits over their last 6 games
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jorge Soler, Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Just 3 HRs and 69 Ks in their last 6 games
St Louis Cardinals (EVEN) vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Michael Wacha vs Merrill Kelly
The Diamondbacks offense has been really cold and they are currently being no-hit by Jack Flaherty on Tuesday night. Wacha could see 3 innings or he could get us 6 strong. We just have no idea. The Cardinals bats are dangerous enough that this game is interesting as the only true day game. From a single game/showdown perspective, I really think we stick with the hot hitters from STL and maybe add in a cheap ARI hitter or RP.
STL 5-star plays: Tommy Edman, Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Matt Carpenter, Dexter Fowler
GPP Note: 13 HRs but 94 Ks over their last 7 games
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Walker, Josh Rojas
GPP Note: 70 Ks over their last 6 games
Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants
Tim Melville vs Jeff Samardzija
Both SPs in this spot really lack the K upside we look for in our GPPs but they get to pitch in a gigantic park that has always helped mediocre SPs out. Both teams should just want to get the season over with as they have struggled and the Giants manager, Bochy, is walking away after this season so I could see the Giants trying to go out on a high note at this point. I actually like a couple of the COL bats as they have had strong performances against Samardzija in the past. We will have to dig in more to figure out if those numbers came in Coors or not. Last night’s game saw 8 HRs hit, which almost has to be a record in that park, doesn’t it?
COL 5-star plays: Daniel Murphy
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: 15 HRs over their last 5 games.
SF 5-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski
4-star plays: Kevin Pillar
GPP Note: Just 13 extra-base hits (ISO of .091) over their last 6 games
Oakland Athletics (-204) vs Los Angeles Angels
Undecided vs Andrew Heaney
The A’s get to face another LHP in this spot and even though he is a stronger LHP, the A’s lineup just has a ton of length to it when facing LHPs. I am reading that OAK will start Frankie Montas in his return from suspension so it will be interesting to see what their plans are. We need to pay attention here as he could be in play against a watered-down LAA lineup.
OAK 5-star plays: Marcus Semien, Mark Canha
4-star plays: Ramon Laureano, Khris Davis
GPP Note: ISO of .214 in 18 games against LAA
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kole Calhoun, David Fletcher
GPP Note: ISO of .115 over their last 6 games
Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres
Ross Stripling vs Dinelson Lamet
Stripling getting the start is intriguing against a struggling SD team but we have to see if he is going to have the ability to get us 5-6 innings or if they are going to piggy-back him with somebody like Maeda or Urias. Lamet is one of my favorite pitchers in all of baseball but I have some worries with all the LHBs of the Dodgers here. I think both he and the LAD bats are in play for GPP purposes. Make sure to pay attention to the lineups as the Dodgers could give a couple of guys rest days to get ready for the postseason.
LAD 5-star plays: Corey Seager, Max Muncy
4-star plays: Joc Pederson, Cody Bellinger
GPP Note: 9 HRs and 34 runs over their last 5 games
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Wil Myers, Manuel Margot
GPP Note: Hitting just .185 with 73 Ks over their last 6 games
Houston Astros (-350) vs Seattle Mariners
Zack Greinke vs Yusei Kikuchi
Greinke and HOU line up to be in a spectacular spot again tonight after Cole dominated SEA on Tuesday night. HOU has 5 HRs and an ISO of .292 against Kikuchi in just 65 ABs this season. They line up perfectly in this spot and should offer a late-night hammer type lineup. There just isn’t much to like about SEA overall. Long has been hot at the plate and Seager is the most dangerous bat that they offer right now. Other than that, strikeouts can be had for Greinke tonight.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, George SPringer
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Aledmys Diaz, Alex Bregman
GPP Note: 13 HRs, ISO of .287 over their last 5 games
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Shed Long, Kyle Seager
GPP Note: 60 Ks and an ISO of .118 over their last 6 games
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.