Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Normally I list 3 SPs that stand out to me on the slate but it’s a 5 game slate on a Monday.
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Full Count Breakdown:
Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals (-170)
Zach Eflin vs Patrick Corbin
Eflin has been absolutely spectacular against WAS this season. He has made 3 starts against them and has picked up 21 strikeouts in 18 innings. He has held them to an average of .182 and allowed just 3 earned runs. He has made 4 September starts and has allowed just 3 earned runs in those 4 starts. Corbin has 24 Ks in 19 innings against PHI this season. His numbers in the second half of the season have gotten stronger as he has allowed 25 earned runs in 92.1 innings, dating back to July 1st. He has 113 Ks in those innings.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Cesar Hernandez, Jean Segura, Jose Pirela
GPP Note: Just 25 runs but an ISO of .196 over the last 6 games
WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Howie Kendrick, Trea Turner
GPP Note: Just 13 extra-base hits over their last 6 games
Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays (-139)
Chandler Shepherd vs Clay Buchholz
CHANDLER SHEPHERD STARTING OVER DYLAN BUNDY!
Buchholz was lit up for 10 hits and 7 runs by the Orioles in just 3.2 innings in his last start. That doesn’t bode well for his chances in this game as the total sits at 9.5 runs. On the other side, Bundy has been really strong against TOR this season. He has 21 Ks in 17 innings while allowing just 4 runs in the 3 starts against them. He struck out 8 in 5 innings while allowing just 1 run in his last start.
BAL 5-star plays: Trey Mancini, Anthony Santander
4-star plays: Austin Hays, Chris Davis
GPP Note: 28 extra-base hits and an ISO of .199 over the last 7 games
TOR 5-star plays: Cavan Biggio, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
4-star plays: Reese McGuire
GPP Note: Team ISO of .227 over their last 6 games
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Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays (-189)
Jhoulys Chacin vs Blake Snell
Chacin was lit up in his last “opening” and TB is battling for a post-season appearance. I expect them to come out motivated here, while BOS really looks like they have given up at the end of the season. Snell is expected to go just 3-4 innings in his second start since his return from the IL. He went 2 strong innings in his last start and should be pretty strong here. The problem is that he just isn’t usable from a DFS perspective.
BOS 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Christian Vazquez
GPP Note: Hitting just .226 as a team over their last 6 games
TB 5-star plays: Austin Meadows
4-star plays: Tommy Pham, Ji-Man Choi
GPP Note: Just 15 extra-base hits over their last 5 games (.155 ISO)
Miami Marlins vs New York Mets (-189)
Caleb Smith vs Steven Matz
I really like this game for bats and for pitching. Caleb Smith is an SP that I love to have shares of because of his K ability while Matz has been really solid when pitching at home. The issue is that both teams come in pretty hot at the plate from a power/extra-base hit perspective. The Marlins bats are really intriguing to me for GPPs as they should be pretty cheap across the industry and have been swinging it really well. I know the Marlins overall just aren’t good so that is why I will have a decent amount of exposure to Matz.
MIA 5-star plays: Starlin Castro, Austin Dean
4-star plays: Jorge Alfaro, Harold Ramirez
GPP Note: 29 extra-base hits over their last 6 games (.208 ISO)
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso, Amed Rosario
4-star plays: Wilson Ramos, Jeff McNeil
GPP Note: 13 HRs and an ISO of .246 over their last 6 games
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St Louis Cardinals (-126) vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Adam Wainwright vs Alex Young
Wainwright has allowed just 1 earned run in September (27 innings) and is peaking at the perfect time for the Cardinals. Young has been strong for the D’Backs but their offense has been pretty blah to finish out the season as they lost Marte for the rest of the season. The Cardinals bats have been striking out at a decent clip over the last week so Young is an interesting GPP option at SP. Wainwright is going to be one of my favorite SP options on this short slate.
STL 5-star plays: Tommy Edman
4-star plays: Paul DeJong, Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: 30 runs and 83 Ks over their last 7 games
ARI 5-star plays: Christian Walker
4-star plays: Eduardo Escobar
GPP Note: Just 5 HRs but 23 extra-base hits over their last 6 games
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.