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DFS Army Full Count – MLB Game Breakdown, Advice, and Strategy for Draftkings and FanDuel – Sept. 18th, 2019

Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums.  With that said, let’s get it started!

My Take on a Consistent Process – Looking at Pitchers

I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are three pitchers that I find particularly interesting and are in good spots here on this slate.

  • Gerrit Cole – Impossible to ignore the MASSIVE K rate that Cole has had this season, especially against TEX.  Cole POPS off the page on the initial Carnage Report.  His row is FULL of purple (purple is really good).
  • Jake Odorizzi – Odorizzi is rocking the second-highest KSCORE and VKSCORE in the initial report and I do not think that will change when the finalized report is posted.
  • Aaron Civale – Civale is shockingly down the list in terms of Carnage Rating but he does offer us the third-highest VKSCORE according to the initial report.  He is in a great spot to pick up the W against Detroit.

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Full Count Breakdown:

Los Angeles Angels vs New York Yankees (-280)

Dillon Peters vs CC Sabathia

Sabathia is probably going to be deployed as a start/opener hybrid as he makes his second “start” in his return from the IL.  He threw 56 pitches in his first start and I could see him getting to 65-ish pitches in this one.  Those 65 pitches just aren’t enough for me to want to use him in what could end up being 4 innings.  Peters is somebody I have used because of his K ability but this is NOT the match-up for that.  The Yankees have a chance to smash him here.

LAA 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Andrelton Simmons

GPP Note: Just 14 runs scored over their last 6 games

NYY 5-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge

4-star plays: Luke Voit, Gleyber Torres

GPP Note: Peters has allowed 13 HRs in 59.2 innings this season


Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh Pirates (-120)

Justin Dunn vs Dario Agrazal

Dunn is making his second career start and hopefully, he is able to find the strike zone in this one.  He gets to face a team that is struggling, especially in the power department.  Agrazal has had reverse splits at the MLB level this season and has struggled more when pitching at home.  That sets SEA up to be an interesting GPP stack option in this one.  Dunn was one of the main pieces that SEA acquired over the winter so they are really hoping he bounces back here.

SEA 5-star plays: Kyle Lewis

4-star plays: Shed Long, Omar Narvaez

GPP Note: 10 HRs with an OPS of .868 over their last 6 games

PIT 5-star plays: Jose Osuna

4-star plays: Kevin Newman, Adam Frazier

GPP Note: Just 2 HRs as a team over their last 7 games


Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles (EVEN)

Clay Buchholz vs Dylan Bundy

This is a match-up of a couple of reverse splits SPs in this one and that really makes me interested in the Blue Jays.  Toronto sends up a bunch of young RHBs with a ton of power upside.  The issue for me is that Bundy is the better pitcher but TOR is the better offense.  I am not overly excited about stacking BAL so I would use just a one-off in GPPs.  Bundy has been really strong against TOR this season as he has held them to an average of .190 in 12 innings pitched.

TOR 5-star plays: Cavan Biggio

4-star plays: Bo Bichette, Randal Grichuk

GPP Note: Team ISO of .208 over their last 6 games

BAL 5-star plays: Trey Mancini

4-star plays: Dwight Smith Jr.

GPP Note: 10 HRs and an ISO of .180 over their last 7 games


Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Indians (-290)

Spencer Turnbull vs Aaron Civale

Civale has been lights out against DET across two starts this season.  He has held them to an average of .182 across 13 innings.  He has given up just 2 HRs in 46.2 innings pitched at the MLB level this season.  The Indians still have a shot at making the postseason so they are battling every day.  The lineup should stay pretty consistent, minus the loss of Jason Kipnis with a broken hand over the weekend.  Turnbull has given up 18 runs and 45 baserunners to CLE in 25 innings this season.  They have done a TON of damage against him and are in a prime spot to do so again today.

DET 5-star plays: Harold Castro

4-star plays: Victor Reyes

GPP Note: Just 27 runs over their last 7 games

CLE 5-star plays: Oscar Mercado

4-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana

GPP Note: 19 extra-base hits but only 23 runs over their last 5 games

 

Watching the weather is half the battle when it comes to MLB DFS. The DFS Army Weather Station has you covered, from games that have delay and postponement potential, to games that could have significant winds that will play a roll in selecting a team to stack or a pitcher to use.


San Francisco Giants vs Boston Red Sox (-155)

Jeff Samardzija vs Jhoulys Chacin

The Red Sox definitely have mailed it in as the season can’t end soon enough for them.  With that being said, I still can’t trust taking an SP against them and their lineup.  The LHBs in this game stand out to me as they should be in a strong spot.  Chacin has been used as an opener with BOS three times and has yet to give up a run.  He got up to 48 pitches in his last appearance so he could get up to around 60 today.  The Giants offense just is not dangerous at all.

SF 5-star plays: Stephen Vogt

4-star plays: Kevin Pillar, Brandon Crawford

GPP Note: Team ISO of just .115 over their last 6 games

BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers

4-star plays: Mitch Moreland, JD Martinez

GPP Note: Team ISO of .096 over their last 5 games


Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves (-150)

Zach Eflin vs Julio Teheran

Atlanta has smacked Eflin around for 20 runs in 9.1 innings this season.  In those innings, the Braves have hit 5 HRs and have had a total of 26 base runners.  Teheran has given up 4 HRs to the Phillies team this season in just 9 innings.  With the type of numbers that each SP has against the opponent, we should expect to see some power numbers in this game.  The game is sitting with a total of 10 runs late Tuesday night.

PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper

4-star plays: Jean Segura, Rhys Hoskins

GPP Note: Just 19 runs over their last 5 games

ATL 5-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Nick Markakis

4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna Jr., Josh Donaldson

GPP Note: Just 27 runs with 60 Ks over their last 6 games

 

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Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins (-280)

Ivan Nova vs Jake Odorizzi

Nova takes the start as Covey has been scratched.  He has done a good job of limiting MIN power this season as they have just 2 HRs in 17 innings against him.  On the season he has given up 30 HRs across 176 innings.  I point out the power because of how much power the Twins have in their lineup and the number of HRs they have hit this season.  Odorizzi has 23 Ks in 16.1 innings against the White Sox this season and he has yet to allow an HR to them.

CWS 5-star plays: Jose Abreu

4-star plays: Eloy Jimenez, Tim Anderson

GPP Note: Hitting .293 but with 73 Ks over their last 7 games

MIN 5-star plays: Max Kepler, Luis Arraez

4-star plays: Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco

GPP Note: Team ISO of .283 over their last 7 games


Washington Nationals (-155) vs St Louis Cardinals

Max Scherzer vs Adam Wainwright

This pitching match-up excites me as a baseball fan  We know how dominant Scherzer is and most of us remember just how dominant Wainwright was at one point.  Wainwright has been extremely strong pitching at home this season and has made a very strong start against WAS on the season while Scherzer is just always a strong play.  This game is full of bats to use as one-offs, but I will be using WAS stacks in my builds because of their ability plus the blowup ability of Wainwright at this point.  The game has a total sitting at 7.5 runs late Tuesday night.

WAS 5-star plays: Anthony Rendon, Adam Eaton

4-star plays: Ryan Zimmerman, Juan Soto

GPP Note: Team ISO of .201 and an OPS of .802 over the last 7 games

STL 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Marcell Ozuna, Paul DeJong

GPP Note: 13 HRs but hitting just .214 over their last 7 games


Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs

Tyler Mahle vs Jon Lester

The Cubs smacked Mahle around in his one start against them this season as they hit 3 HRs against him in 5 innings.  They managed to hit .391 and score 6 runs in those 5 innings.  Lester has struck out 15 Reds batters in 10.2 innings this season but has managed to give up 6 earned runs.  Cubs hitters are heating up, even with the loss of Baez and Rizzo.  Bryant and Schwarber have really stepped up recently and they both make excellent plays in this spot.  Make sure to pay attention to the weather in Chicago to see if there is a favorable wind for hitters or for pitchers.

CIN 5-star plays: Eugenio Suarez

4-star plays: Aristides Aquino

GPP Note: Hitting just .190 with 27 runs over their last 7 games

CHC 5-star plays: Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber

4-star plays: Nicholas Castellanos, Ben Zobrist

GPP Note: Hitting .306 with 31 extra-base hits over their last 7 games


Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros (-450)

Kolby Allard vs Gerrit Cole

After Verlander went to work last night against TEX, it is Cole’s turn today.  His strikeout numbers are even more impressive than Verlander’s.  Cole has struggled from a run prevention standpoint against TEX this season as they have scored 17 runs in 22.1 innings against him but he has a massive 42 strikeouts in those 22.1 innings.  Allard has had some impressive outings since his trade but his strikeouts have come down a bit.  This is not the match-up for him to do well in.

TEX 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Danny Santana, Shin-Soo Choo

GPP Note: Just 76 runs in 18 games vs HOU

HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman, George Springer

4-star plays:  Yuli Gurriel, Jose Altuve

GPP Note: Team ISO of .230 with 13 HRs over their last 6 games


New York Mets (-145) vs Colorado Rockies

Noah Syndergaard vs Jeff Hoffman

I am looking forward to Syndergaard pitching in Coors.  He does have the stuff to succeed but he has struggled with some RH power bats on the season.  Hoffman has been a bust at the MLB level (he was a 1st round pick) and has struggled mightily pitching in Coors.  The Mets bats are definitely in play here.  Hoffman has been more reverse splits at the MLB level but it’s also not like he has been dominant vs LHBs either.  Stack away, especially the Mets side of things.

NYM 5-star plays: Jeff McNeil, Robinson Cano

4-star plays: Michael Conforto, Pete Alonso, Todd Frazier

GPP Note: Team ISO of .270 and 17 HRs over their last 7 games

COL 5-star plays: Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado

4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Daniel Murphy

GPP Note: 14 HRs and 46 runs scored over the last 7 games


Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks (-165)

Sandy Alcantara vs Mike Leake

Alcantara has been spectacular over his last 3 starts and he has been really strong over his last 8.  He is definitely in play today with how bad the ARI offense has been recently.  Mike Leake is definitely in play-based purely on the fact that Miami offers one of the worst lineups in the majors at the moment.  Ketel Marte left last night’s game with an injury and if he misses tonight’s game, you have to get shares of Alcantara against the D’Backs.

MIA 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Neil Walker

GPP Note: Team ISO of .125 over the last 7 games

ARI 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Jake Lamb, Eduardo Escobar

GPP Note: Just 2 HRs and a team ISO of .100 over their last 7 games


Kansas City Royals vs Oakland A’s (-220)

Danny Duffy vs Homer Bailey

Duffy has been strong over his last 3 starts but he has been worse on the road in 2019 and the A’s offense is not one that I want to attack with LHPs right now.  Bailey gets to face his old team for the second time since being traded and will look to improve on the quality start he had against them in the first start.  He is a big enough home favorite that I think he is usable but I prefer to only target bats in this game as the stadium will suppress strikeouts.

KC 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Jorge Soler

4-star plays: Bubba Starling, Adalberto Mondesi

GPP Note: 25 extra-base hits but 76 Ks over their last 7 games

OAK 5-star plays: Marcus Semien, Khris Davis

4-star plays: Matt Chapman, Matt Olson

GPP Note: 16 HRs and 32 total extra-base hits over their last 7 games


Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Dodgers (-125)

Brendan McKay vs Tony Gonsolin

Both rookie SPs are in a tough spot against the opposing offenses.  McKay can throw a ton of pitches and the Dodgers can work the count against him.  He does have K upside in his arm but has been all over the map in his performances.  Gonsolin has had some impressive performances this season but TB has done damage against RHPs all season long.  The tough part about targeting the Dodgers is the fact that any of their starting lineups could be removed from the game, at any point.

TB 5-star plays: Austin Meadows

4-star plays: Ji-Man Choi, Tommy Pham

GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 and an OPS of .786 over their last 6 games

LAD 5-star plays: AJ Pollock, Chris Taylor

4-star plays: David Freese, Kike Hernandez

GPP Note: Just an ISO of .104 (3 HRs) over their last 6 games


San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers (-145)

Dinelson Lamet vs Adrian Houser

I really like this match-up from a pitching standpoint.  If you have read this article or my coaches notes before when Lamet has pitched, you will understand my love for him as a pitcher.  The match-up is dangerous for him as MIL can send up a decent amount of LH power against him.  He has given up 4 HRs in 24 PAs to the Brewers roster in his career.  Houser has been impressive this season and his K upside is through the roof in this spot.  The problem is that his manager LOVES to pull his starters after 5 innings and it’s getting really annoying trying to predict how many innings a MIL starter will go.

SD 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Eric Hosmer, Josh Naylor

GPP Note: Hitting just .205 with 76 Ks over their last 7 games

MIL 5-star plays: Mike Moustakas

4-star plays: Yasmani Grandal, Eric Thames

GPP Note: Team OPS of just .695 over the last 7 games


As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.