Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are three pitchers that I find particularly interesting and are in good spots here on this slate.
- Yu Darvish –
- Dallas Keuchel –
- Caleb Smith –
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Full Count Breakdown:
Los Angeles Angels vs New York Yankees (-300)
Jose Suarez vs Luis Severino
Severino makes his much-anticipated return to the big leagues tonight. He managed to get up to 64 pitches in his last rehab appearance so he does have the length to get 5 innings or so if things work in his favor tonight. He gets to face a pretty watered down Angels lineup at this point with Ohtani and Trout having surgery. The Yankees bats are in a prime spot for power against an SP giving up nearly 3 HR/9 this season.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kevan Smith
GPP Note: Just 14 runs scored over their last 5 games
NYY 5-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Luke Voit, Austin Romine
GPP Note: Suarez has allowed 20 HRs in just 71.1 innings this season
Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh Pirates (-135)
Marco Gonzales vs Mitch Keller
I am definitely shocked to see the Pirates a -135 favorite here as Gonzales has been a serviceable pitcher all season and the Pirates offense is far from dangerous at this point. Keller has been knocked around quite a bit during his MLB trial run. His best start did come at home and we do know that the SEA offense, overall, is pretty weak. I love what Kyle Lewis has done during his callup and he looks like a future stud at this point.
SEA 5-star plays: Kyle Lewis
4-star plays: Shed Long, Omar Narvaez
GPP Note: Team OPS of .830 over the last 6 games
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kevin Newman, Adam Frazier
GPP Note: Just 2 HRs as a team over their last 6 games
Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles
Wilmer Font/Trent Thornton vs Chandler Shepherd
With TOR employing an opener prior to Thornton, that takes away the intrigue into the SP against BAL on this slate. Their offense is in an interesting place as Shepherd has been knocked around all season long (both at AAA and in the majors). Shepherd has shown strong K ability in the minors so he does offer some interesting upside, depending on his price point. I will be using TOR bats and that’s about it from this game.
TOR 5-star plays: Cavan Biggio
4-star plays: Bo Bichette, Randal Grichuk
GPP Note: Team ISO of .203 over the last 6 games
BAL 5-star plays: Trey Mancini
4-star plays: Dwight Smith Jr.
GPP Note: 18 extra-base hits over the last 7 games
Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Indians (-205)
Undecided vs Adam Plutko
Waiting on the DET pitching plans but this game feels blah to me. The Indians offense isn’t exactly on a roll right now but they are still in the Wild Card race. They have a lot to play for right now so we have to consider them in this spot. Plutko has struggled with the HR ball this season, even against DET. The DET bats have hit 5 HRs in 17 innings against him this year. The Tigers have the hotter bats at this point but CLE is a monster home favorite here.
DET 5-star plays: Harold Castro
4-star plays: Jordy Mercer, Christin Stewart
GPP Note: Plutko has given up 21 HRs in just 97.2 innings this season
CLE 5-star plays: Oscar Mercado
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor
GPP Note: 24 runs and 15 extra-base hits over their last 5 games
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San Francisco Giants vs Boston Red Sox (-190)
Logan Webb vs Nathan Eovaldi
The Boston Red Sox appear to have mailed it in at this point. It’s been a huge letdown of a season for them and they appear to just want to be done with 2019. They get a solid match-up here as Webb has struggled, especially on the road at the MLB level. He hasn’t been good to either side of the plate but RHBs have hit him harder than LHBs.
SF 5-star plays: Brandon Belt
4-star plays: Kevin Pillar, Brandon Crawford
GPP Note: 15 runs and an ISO of .103 over their last 6 games
BOS 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Christian Vazquez, JD Martinez
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .097 over the last 5 games
Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves (-180)
Vince Velasquez vs Dallas Keuchel
Really shocked to see this game with a total at 10 runs between these two pitchers. I know that Velasquez hasn’t been all that great this season but he does have some ability in his arm. I really like the Atlanta side of things, especially Albies and Markakis, as they are swinging it decently. Keuchel is interesting to me, even against a tough Philadelphia lineup. They have an average of just .174 against him in 13 innings this season.
PHI 5-star plays: Rhys Hoskins
4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Cesar Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .224 over the last 5 games
ATL 5-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Nick Markakis
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna Jr.
GPP Note: Over a 25% K rate over their last 6 games
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Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins (-135)
Ross Detwiler vs Martin Perez
This game is ALL about the bats for me. A lot of guys in positive spots and the total is sitting at 9.5 runs and I expect that number to rise as the day goes on. The Twins have absolutely smashed LHPs all season long and have 4 HRs in 14 innings against Detwiler this season. I will be making game stacks as I love the top of the White Sox order, especially against LHPs. Going to hope for 5+ HRs in this game.
CWS 5-star plays: Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu
4-star plays: Eloy Jimenez, Tim Anderson
GPP Note: 70 strikeouts over their last 7 games
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Jorge Polanco, CJ Cron
4-star plays: Luis Arraez, Miguel Sano, Jonathan Schoop
GPP Note: Team ISO of .202 over the last 7 games
Washington Nationals (-110) vs St Louis Cardinals
Patrick Corbin vs Miles Mikolas
This series is awesome to watch as it has a TON of implications for the playoffs. Seeing the Nationals as a road favorite here is interesting. I understand they have the better SP going but Mikolas has been really strong when pitching at home this season. Mikolas shut down the Nationals earlier this season and should be focused in this spot, against a difficult lineup to navigate. The Cardinals smacked Corbin around for 6 runs in 5 innings earlier this season.
WAS 5-star plays: Anthony Rendon
4-star plays: Howie Kendrick, Juan Soto
GPP Note: Hitting just .221 over their last 7 games
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Dexter Fowler, Harrison Bader
GPP Note: 13 HRs and 11 SBs over their last 7 games
Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs (-155)
Sonny Gray vs Yu Darvish
This game has a total sitting at 8 runs with two very strong SPs. Gray has 28 Ks in 23.1 innings against the Cubs this season while allowing an average against of just .159. He did give up 5 HRs to them in those 23.1 innings. Darvish’s numbers against the Reds are very similar to what Gray has done against the Cubs this season. He has gone 24.1 innings with 32 strikeouts but has allowed 6 HRs. Pay attention to the weather so we know what the wind is doing at Wrigley. That could make a huge difference for both the SPs and the offenses.
CIN 5-star plays: Eugenio Suarez
4-star plays: Joey Votto
GPP Note: Hitting .197 over their last 7 games
CHC 5-star plays: Kris Bryant, Nico Hoerner
4-star plays: Nicholas Castellanos, Ben Zobrist
GPP Note: 19 HRs over their last 7 games
Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros (-300)
Lance Lynn vs Justin Verlander
Verlander is battling his own teammate for the Cy Young and I would guess they have a little competition going on between them. We know that there is a good chance that TEX hits an HR in this game as Verlander has given up a bunch of them but there is also a very good chance that it’s just a solo HR. A few of the HOU bats are struggling a bit but they have the ability to break out at any point. Lynn has been REALLY impressive against HOU this season as he has 31 Ks in 21 innings against them.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Danny Santana
GPP Note: 7 HRs and a team average of .237 over their last 6 games
HOU 5-star plays: Michael Brantley, George Springer
4-star plays: Josh Reddick, Jose Altuve
GPP Note: 14 HRs and an ISO of .238 over their last 6 games
New York Mets (-155) vs Colorado Rockies
Marcus Stroman vs Tim Melville
Normally I have a lot of interest in Coors field bats but I don’t feel all that great about targeting this game. The main COL bats are definitely in play, even against Stroman while the Mets LHBs are in the best spot against Melville. The game is sporting a total of 13.5 runs so we know that bats are definitely in play here. Both teams are picking up extra-base hits at a high rate over the last week and extra-base hits are a way to pick up fantasy points quickly.
NYM 5-star plays: Jeff McNeil, Robinson Cano
4-star plays: Michael Conforto, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Team ISO of .248 with 14 HRs over their last 7 games
COL 5-star plays: Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Garrett Hampson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .262 with 32 extra-base hits over their last 7 games
Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks (-170)
Caleb Smith vs Alex Young
This game is all about the SPs for me. Both teams are struggling at the plate coming into this game and both SPs have solid enough upsides that I will only be using them to go along with a one-off from Arizona. Smith struck out 9 in 6 innings against ARI earlier this season and Young gave up just 2 runs in 6 innings against MIA.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .107 and an OPS of .578 over the last 7 games
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ketel Marte, Eduardo Escobar
GPP Note: Hitting just .193 with 2 HRs over their last 7 games
Kansas City Royals vs Oakland A’s (-270)
Jorge Lopez vs Brett Anderson
I think both offenses are in play here and while Anderson and the A’s are big-time favorites, I just don’t see Anderson being usable in many contests. He has very limited upside as he doesn’t really go deep and he lacks any kind of K upside. The A’s are swinging their power bats right now and are in a battle to host the wild-card game. This game means a lot to them as they need to make sure to beat the teams they are supposed to beat down the stretch.
KC 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Jorge Soler
4-star plays: Hunter Dozier, Adalberto Mondesi
GPP Note: Team ISO of .215 over their last 7 games
OAK 5-star plays: Marcus Semien
4-star plays: Seth Brown, Matt Olson
GPP Note: 21 HRs over their last 7 games
Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Dodgers (-120)
Blake Snell vs Ross Stripling
Both SPs in this game is expected to see about 3 innings of work, so that removes them from any kind of consideration but it also really muddies up the offenses. When bullpen games go on it makes it really tough to predict what the managers are going to do as far as match-ups go.
TB 5-star plays: Austin Meadows
4-star plays: Ji-Man Choi
GPP Note: 19 extra-base hits over their last 6 games
LAD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: AJ Pollock
GPP Note: 26 runs with an OPS of .659 over their last 6 games
San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers (-116)
Chris Paddack vs Brandon Woodruff/Gio Gonzalez
Pending the status of Woodruff’s start (unknown number of pitches/innings at this point in the morning)
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Manny Machado, Manuel Margot
GPP Note: Hitting just .227 over the last 7 games
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yasmani Grandal, Mike Moustakas
GPP Note: Team average of .215 over the last 7 games
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.