What’s up everyone?! Welcome to The Inside Line: Xfinity Series. Larkin8 here and this week we will be covering all the drivers participating in the Zippo 200 NASCAR XFINITY Series race at Watkins Glen. If you have any other questions be sure to jump into the NASCAR Talk slack channel for assistance from our NASCAR coaches. You can follow me on Twitter @Larkin8
Quick Note: For most drivers in this race their road course racing experience is very limited. I will do my best to give as much info on these drivers as possible. Otherwise we will be playing them based on current season performance and practice performance
The DFS Army Racing Championship on iracing will be kicking off its first season in less than two weeks. This series is open to all Army members. If you are interested in joining reach out to myself on Twitter or through slack.
Driver breakdown
Kyle Busch $12,100
Busch is going to be the clear cut favorite to dominate and win this race. He has been a dominating figure in both the Cup and Xfinity Series races here in the best. Luckily this week we will have a couple drivers to make it interesting and possibly take it to KB.
Ryan Blaney $11,800
Blaney will be decent and likely end up somewhere inside the top 5. Unfortunately this won’t be good enough to pay off this price tag. If he completely screws up qualifying gaining place differential upside then he is worth playing. Otherwise he is a difficult play with Busch, Allmendinger and Cindric out there.
AJ Allmendinger $11,500
The most obvious threat to KB. AJ has one career Cup series win which came at Watkins Glen. He also holds two Xfinity wins on road course and a 2nd in the race last year. He came from the open wheel, road racing ranks and this type of racing is his specialty.
Christopher Bell $10,900
Bell has been completely mediocre in his entire road racing career and realistically should be avoided. A top 5 would be a surprise this week. Can’t imagine a scenario where he even gets close to contending for the win without a lot of issues.
Cole Custer $10,500
Custer will be going to a back up car after a hard crash in first practice. This will mean he will start from the rear of the field. He will still be scored from his qualifying position. If he takes it easy on his qualifying lap and starts deeper in the field he is a decent play but with only one top five in seven Xfinity road races he doesn’t offer a huge upside.
Tyler Reddick $10,200
Much like his main championship rivals Bell and Custer, Reddick more than likely will struggle to end up inside the top five. One thing he does have going for him is driving for RCR who has been very good at the road courses in recent years. Still think this price is too high for someone with limited upside.
Justin Allgaier $9,900
Allgaier has won three Xfinity road course races including two last year. He has finished top five in the last two Watkins Glen races and top ten in each of the last five races here. He has proven himself to be fantastic at this kind of racing especially over a long run.
Michael Annett $9,600
ZERO top tens and only one top fifteen finish in seven Watkins Glen races. Needless to say that isn’t what we are looking for. However it is 2019 and Annett is magically a top tier driver so give him an outside shot at a top 10. Still unlikely to pay off at this price without some serious place diff.
Austin Cindric $9,300
Cindric comes from a road racing background and is the best overall driver on this form of racing. He is going to be right behind Busch and AJ and will be their biggest threat for the win. He finished 2nd at Mid Ohio and 3rd at the Charlotte roval last year. In 2017 he won the only Truck Series road course race. Love Cindric here.
Noah Gragson $9,000
Gragson basically mirrored the practice times of his teammate Allgaier. He doesn’t have a ton of NASCAR road racing experience he does seem to be picking it up quickly. Will be all about staying clean which can be hard for rookies but I do believe he can finish well inside the top 10.
Ryan Preece $8,700
Preece finished 4th in both his road course races last year including at The Glen. He did this while driving the #18 for Joe Gibbs which is an elite car. While he is still in a very good car for this race I do believe it is a step back overall. He should be able to secure a top 10 finish.
John H. Nemechek $8,500
Nemechek has little road racing experience with his only major NASCAR starts coming in the Truck Series. The positive is he has a win and a second place finish in his last three starts on road courses. I always like Nemechek at tracks where he can out drive others with his raw aggression and talent. This team had AJ Allmendinger driving for them last year so I am sure they picked up on a couple tricks as well. I like Nemechek for a solid top 10 here.
Justin Haley $8,200
Haley won the Truck road course race last year due to the leaders taking each other out. Besides that I didn’t have expectations for him to do much this week until I saw the practice times. He had the 8th fastest time in first practice and put down the 2nd fastest time in final practice. AJ Allmendinger is his teammate this week so possibly that is what is helping with the drivers speed. Either way that can’t be ignored as well as his consistency so far this year. Could be a sneaky play who will hopefully offer some place differential to take advantage of.
Chase Briscoe $8,000
Not someone who I thought of as someone who would excel on road course until I watched him win the Charlotte Roval race last fall. That performance and his confidence build win last week give me hope for his upside. Oh and this price is moronic. Not even that hard to justify playing him at $8k
Alex Labbe $7,800
Oh I love me some Labbe. If this dude struggles at all in qualifying and ends up outside the top 20 he has some real potential. Last year in the four road course races he put together finishes of 19th, 9th, 16th, & 13th. The lack of depth in this field combined with the #90 cars speed so far this year gives faith he can end up inside top 15 this week. There is some risk here but you have to risk it to…..
Brandon Jones $7,600
A bad driver with elite equipment equals top ten potential if he can stay clean. Overall I don’t like Jones but when he qualifies 18th he will be hard to ignore at this price. Play with caution and only if obvious place diff is available.
Ross Chastain $7,500
Chastain himself would admit to not being the best road racer but he is a driver who can out drive most of the field. I like playing guys with talent at tracks where they can make a difference. He has a decent top 15 shot but I doubt he touches the top ten.
Garrett Smithley $7,300
Going to be ultra slow. No ability on these tracks. Only play if he qualifies very deep.
Ryan Sieg $7,100
Sieg has a rough history on these tracks but considering the state of his family owned team in past years it is hard to tell if that is driver related or if the team essentially took the races off as to not wear out equipment. This year the team has expanded and pushed hard to perform at a high level which they have. I believe he has the ability with the improved equipment and help from RCR to get into the top 15. And this price is fantastic. Solid play here.
Gray Gaulding $6,900
There is going to be nothing to go off of for Gaulding. 18th and 20th in practice speeds is a decent sign that he can keep his top 20 streak going. Still really impressed with how he has performed this year. Probably not much upside here.
Jeremy Clements $6,800
Basically averaged a 15th place finish last year on the road courses and has finished 16th or better three of the last five races here. Top 15 upside for a really affordable driver here. Oh and he showed speed finishing final practice in 7th.
Josh Williams $6,700
I expect very little from Williams this week. Only ran four laps of practice and has zero road racing experience to go off of. My expectation is he qualifies very badly and a lot of people will jump all over him. I don’t believe he will do anything but ride around and essentially disappoint a large group of people who played him hoping for his normal performances.
Brandon Brown $6,500
Brown much like Williams should struggle to run anywhere near where he has been so far this year. Really struggled in practice and likely will be fools gold for a lot of DFS lineups.
Ray Black Jr $6,300
I think Black has a shot at a top 20. What his value is will be completely determined by where he qualifies.
Stephen Leicht $6,200
Because Leicht has basically been a start and park driver for the past decade he will seem like a bad play. I think he likely ends up inside the top 25 maybe an outside shot at a top 20. The driver is decent but it will be about how much this car can perform.
David Starr $6,000
Starr has a limited upside but any driver whop runs the whole race at this price has a shot at the optimal. Decent play especially if he qualifies poorly
Scott Heckert $5,800
Heckert will be driving the #5 this week instead of Matt Mills. He is a really good road racer with two wins here in K&N competition and also a win at VIR in K&N. In GT cars he picked up another win at VIR last year. He has far more ability than any of the drivers around him on this type of track. Good punt play here.
BJ McLeod $5,700
If he finishes better than 25th it will be a bit of a shock. Has never performed well on this track type and considering how slow he was in practice I really don’t know if there is much of a reason to play him outside qualifying extremly deep in the field.
Joey Gase $5,600
One of the slowest cars in practice. I don’t expect much at all and would be surprised if this team failed to attempt the entire race. No faith in Gase for this weekend, play at your own risk.
Chad Finchum $5,500
Driving the#13 this week which basically makes him a lock to Start and Park like this car has all year. There is always the off chance Finchum runs the race but I just don’t see it happening.
Vinnie Miller $5,400
Will likely qualify 35th or worse and ride around until he scores 20-25 points. Actually not an awful play if you are wanting to play the ultra top tier guys together.
Stanton Barrett $5,300
Barrett is driving the #42 normally driven by Finchum. I expect them to attempt the whole race but Barrett is by no means a good driver. Hopefully he qualifies just high enough to avoid him.
Cody Ware $5,200
Showed some decent speed in practice ending up 23rd and 24th in the two sessions. At this price if he can break 20 points which he could based on those speed he becomes a viable play. He is driving the #99 for BJ Mcleod this week.
JJ Yeley $5,100
Start and Park. Fade
Tommy Joe Martins $5,000
The two cheapest plays may in fact be the best two punt plays. Tommy Joe moves over to the #66 normally driven by Timmy Hill and he brings sponsorship with him. He ended up 22nd in final practice and I believe he can earn a solid top 25 finish and maybe contend for a top 20.
Josh Bilicki $4,900
And finally Josh Bilicki. LITTLE KNOWN FACT!!! Josh Bilicki comes from sports cars and cut his teeth road racing. He has legit road racing talent oh and best part…. HE HAS A SPONSOR!!!. I am excited about this so much and I hope he gets faded, especially when he qualifies top 20. Of course variance sucks and can ruin the play but I am a HUGE fan this week. Oh and he 9th and 17th in the two practice sessions.