What’s up everyone?! Welcome to The Inside Line: Xfinity Series. Larkin8 here and this week we will be covering all the drivers participating in the CTECH Manufacturing 180 NASCAR XFINITY Series race at Road America. If you have any other questions be sure to jump into the NASCAR Talk slack channel for assistance from our NASCAR coaches. You can follow me on Twitter @Larkin8
AJ Allmendinger $11,200
AJ comes into this week as one of the favorites for the win. He has finished top 3 in each of his last five Xfinity road course starts including two wins. One of those wins came here in 2013 driving for Penske. As for 2019 he has finished 2nd (DNQ’d to last place but finished 2nd on the track) and 3rd driving for Kaulig Racing in #10. I like him to stay towards the front and potentially lead some laps. Strong play
Christopher Bell $10,800
Bell had a very mediocre road racing career in the Xfinity Series that included a 19th and 23rd at Road America in two starts. This year has been completely different however as Bell has finished 2nd in both road course races and was a strong contender to win both races. Given the recent success at this style of racing I feel much better about his prospects this week. Top contender for the win.
Austin Cindric $10,500
Cindric has won both road course races in 2019. He should be a top favorite to win this race as well. He has had bad luck here in his two starts so the stats don’t look the best but he will be one of the guys to beat this week.
Justin Allgaier $10,200
Won the race here last season and has finished 11th or better in his last five races here. He is desperate for a win heading into the playoffs after yet another issue took him out of the lead late last week in Bristol. I expect JA to run inside the top 5 for most of the day and be a contender for the win.
Cole Custer $9,900
Custer has finished 8th and 4th here at Road America and has finished 8th or better in his last seven road course races. Those are some incredible stats especially for a style of racing that can be rather volatile at times. I like him for cash as you want a guy who can get you some solid points. The only downside for GPP is I don’t see him contending with the likes of AJ, Bell, Cindric and Allgaier for the win. Can get you a solid finish but has limited upside.
Tyler Reddick $9,700
Reddick much like Bell has gone from a mediocre road racer to a driver with two top fives in the two road course races in 2019. I expect him to contend for a top five finish yet again this week but doubt he can contend for the win with the top guys. Very similar to Custer in terms of lacking upside but solid play otherwise.
Michael Annett $9,500
Annett has started 17th or worse in 5 of 6 races here. If this continues he will offer the place differential that can make him a good play. His upside will only from other drivers having issues but he does have a shot at a top 10 if all goes well. Not very good at this style of racing and not someone to trust if he starts inside the top 15.
John H. Nemechek $9,300
Nemechek is roughly a 10th-12th place car on the road courses this year. Quite frankly that is not good enough at this price tag. I like him as a driver but unless there is some obvious place differential I find it difficult to put much faith in him. Worth a shot in certain gpp scenarios but don’t go crazy.
Noah Gragson $9,100
Noah seems to have a good grasp on the road course racing. In his first two road races he finished 4th and 9th. I like him for a solid top 10. There are some more obvious plays directly below him in price so he could see some low ownership.
Chase Briscoe $8,900
Briscoe is super consistent finishing 8th or better in 17 of the last 20 races in 2019. That includes a 6th and 7th at the road course. Love him in cash but his ability to qualify well hurts his upside in gpps. If he qualifies outside the top 10 he becomes a top play.
Justin Haley $8,700
Haley will likely finish towards the back end of the top 10. Considering he usually qualifies around 13th this could be a solid score for this price. He isn’t someone who can reasonably contend for the win so place differential will determine his value.
Regan Smith $8,500
Regan returns to the #8 for JRM. He saw tons of ownership at Mid Ohio which is a track where he has a good history at. He failed to deliver on what looked like a promising day after a late race incident saw him finish 21st. His history at Road America is not as good but he still will carry top 10 upside. The price is good but I would recommend possibly going under on his ownership with better options elsewhere.
Matt DiBenedetto $8,400
Matty D is absolutely killing it in the Cup Series as off late and jumps into the #18 for Joe Gibbs. He is for sure a top five threat and also one of the absolute favorites for the win. At this price you need to decide whether you want to be over on ownership on him or take a chance that he fails to deliver and go way under. He actually finished 11th here in 2014 driving for one of the back marker teams so he does have some experience on this track.
Brandon Jones $8,300
Jones sucks at road courses and will struggle to break into the top 10. Due to the level of equipment he has you can’t completely write him off especially at this price. He will be going to the rear after wrecking in practice but will be scored from his qualifying position. Obviously if he doesn’t push hard in qualifying to save tires he could offer good place diff.
Kaz Grala $8,100
Kaz Grala returns with the #21 team for RCR. Grala came up running a bit of everything including sports car. He was the youngest ever driver to compete in IMSA and at the 24 hours of Daytona. Solid road racer and even finished 11th here last season. He is one of those sneak plays that people might over look thinking they don’t carry the upside they actually do. I like him to finish somewhere around the 8th to 10th position.
Jeremy Clements $7,900
Clements shocked the NASCAR world by winning here in 2017. While that type of finish is not expected I do think he will contend for a top 10 finish likely ending up just outside though. He has finished 11th in both road course races this year and that is basically what we can expect this week as well.
Ryan Sieg $7,700
Sieg is limited in his upside and I think at best he ends up around 12th to 13th. Not really much to say here. Place differential dependent
Garrett Smithley $7,600
Smithley doesn’t offer much in terms of upside but he almost always qualifies poorly which results in strong place diff. He always attempts to run all the laps and usually can end up around the 20th position. Depending on the place differential he offers he could be a decent play.
Brandon Brown $7,400
Road Courses are simply not his specialty. He has qualified so poorly on this tracks that he has offered good enough place diff to score well. If this trend continues he is worth a shot. 20th is about as high as I see him finishing without some help from others having issues.
Gray Gaulding $7,200
Same thing every week. Will end up right around 15th. Dude seems to never make a mistake and consistently ends up scoring around 30 points. He is upside is limited because he tends to qualify well. If he starts outside the top 20 he is an elite play. Otherwise I like him as a solid cash play but limited upside hurts for gpps.
Josh Williams $7,100
Will end up somewhere right around 20th. Not very good at this style of racing. If he qualifies poorly like at Watkins Glen when he started 30th and finished 20th he can deliver a good score but thats about the limit of what we can expect from him.
Ray Black Jr $6,900
Black started 24th and finished 15th in his only start here in 2016. He finished 19th at Mid Ohio a couple weeks ago after starting 26th. This is exactly what I expect from Black again this week. Qualify mid 20s but find his way inside the top 20 for a decent day. Nothing special but worth a shot in the right situation.
Stephen Leicht $6,700
He is a good enough driver to get into the 20th place range. He is yet another driver who can scored in the low 30s DK points wise with the right place diff.
Joey Gase $6,600
Gase has finished 35th and 36th in the two road course races this year. My expectation is that he is once again he is a start and park. Fade.
Loris Hezemans $6,500
I am personally very excited about seeing Hezemans race. He will be driving the #99 for BJ Mcleod this week. Hezemans is currently driving in the NASCAR Whelen Euro Series where he finished 4th in points last year and sits second this year after winning his last two races. He comes from a strong road racing background which is a positive but not sure what his upside will be. For now I am penciling him in around 20th but I think he may carry some additional upside.
Josh Bilicki $6,400
Bilicki ran enough laps in practice that I am not worried about him parking this week. He is a solid road racer and I fully expect him to finish inside the top 20 with top 15 upside if all goes well.
Nicolas Hammann $6,300
Hammann is driving the #74 for Mike Harmon. Limited upside. I expect him to finish just inside the top 30 somewhere around 28th.
BJ McLeod $6,100
Mcleod has very limited upside. Not a good road racer and likely won’t break into the top 25.
David Starr $5,900
Nervous about Starr. He finished 30th and 33rd in the two road races and has only broken 20 points in twice in the last nine race. I would recommend avoiding.
Ryan Ellis $5,500
Ellis is driving the #5 for BJ McLeod. He speed a few years running in some lower level sportscar series and has some decent road racing skills. He finished 17th here last year and 21st the year before that. I believe he can replicate that type of performance and find his way into the top 20 this week. Strong punt play.
Tommy Joe Martins $5,400
Martins had a good run going at Watkins Glen before having issues mid race. He then followed that up by finishing 18th at Mid Ohio. I expect him to run inside the top 20 again this week. Him and Ellis are the best punt plays and I expect one of them to be in the optimal.
Vinnie Miller $5,300
If he stays out of trouble he can end up around 25th. Very poor road racer and no real upside beyond that. Will likely qualify towards the back so worth a shot in case we see a bunch of DNFs.
Ryan Vargas $5,100
Ryan Vargas is driving the #4 for JDM this week. This is the car normally driven by Ross Chastain and Landon Cassill. Decent car but a very inexperienced driver. I expect him to struggle and end up around 22nd-25th. Not
Preston Pardus $5,000
Pardus is making his first start in a family owned car that they purchased from Chip Ganassi’s #42 team that shut down. He comes from the spec Mazda series and has exclusively run on road courses for his racing career. Former Cup Series Crew Chief Tony Furr will be running the show from the pits. Has the makings of a decent punt play that showed decent practice speeds. Definitely worth a shot and could get over looked considering he has very little known about him in the stock car world.
Dick Karth $4,900
66 year old Dick Karth is driving the #61 (former #42) for Carl Long. By far the slowest driver in practice and not someone I would recommend playing.
Chad Finchum $4,800
Driving the #13 which has failed to finish every race this year. Should be a start and park. Fade
Dexter Bean $4,700
Bean is driving the #90 car this week for DGM. He finished 26th here in 2017. I think he can get into the top 25 but that is about it.
JJ Yeley $4,600
Start and Parked the first two road course races and ran only 1 lap in practice. Should start and park again.