What’s up everyone?! Welcome to The Inside Line: Xfinity Series. Larkin8 here and this week we will be covering all the drivers participating in the B&L Transport 170 NASCAR XFINITY Series race at Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course. If you have any other questions be sure to jump into the NASCAR Talk slack channel for assistance from our NASCAR coaches. You can follow me on Twitter @Larkin8
AJ Allmendinger $11,100
AJ is an elite play this week and one of three potential Doms. Mid Ohio is a bit more technical than Watkins Glen which will only add to the separation he has over the field. Barring late race incidents or a mechanical failure AJ should easily score a top 3 finish and is my favorite for the win.
Justin Allgaier $10,700
Allgaier is extremely good on the road courses simply by staying out of trouble and giving himself a shot at the end. He is the defending race winner here due to a great strategy call. He is a top 5 threat but a win or any dom points seems very unlikely. For this reason and his price he will be someone difficult to play this week.
Christopher Bell $10,300
Bell has gotten better at road racing which is to be expected with the more experience he gains. He has a shot at a top 5 but likely will end up a little further back inside the top 10. Much better plays out there unless he screws up qualifying.
Cole Custer $10,000
Custer is in a similar situation to Bell. He is learning the road racing aspect and still has some improving to do. Should end up inside the top 10 but I don’t expect much more.
Austin Cindric $9,800
Last weeks race winner at Watkins Glen and the dominator of this race last year. Cindric is the biggest challenger to AJ for the win and to collect the dom points. At this price he not only has really good value but can actually be paired with AJ as a strong 1-2 punch
Noah Gragson $9,600
Gragson is a driver who has an upside that is likely towards the back end of the top 10. Much like last week if he qualifies poorly and offers place differential he can be a solid play. Fairly safe play in general just lacking the upside unless he gets help.
John H. Nemechek $9,400
Basically a copy and paste of Gragson. Solid driver in a decent car. A little more aggressive than Gragson which could see him jump up the leader board with late race restarts but will also put him more at a risk of wrecking. Solid play with the right place differential.
Tyler Reddick $9,200
Reddick finished with a 5th place finish last week at Watkins Glen. This was only top 5 in his five road racing starts in the Xfinity Series. He is similar to Bell and Custer in that he is learning on this style of racing still but at this price he is a much better play. Reddick will be more aggressive than some putting him more at risk of wrecking but this can also result in him bullying his way to the front. Not a bad play based on the price especially starting 8th or worse
Michael Annett $9,000
Much like last week there is a chance he can score a top 10. He has an average finish of 20th here in 3 races with a best of 18th last year. I really don’t like him in general but he has been a much improved driver this year and if he qualifies poorly can offer the place differential to put him in the optimal lineup.
Justin Haley $8,900
Haley looks to be a really solid road racer early in his career. He had a great run going last week before being taken out by CHase Briscoe late and finishing 14th. I expect him to have good speed and to get good information from teammate Allmendinger which will help lead him to a top 10 finish. This #11 car also finished 5th here last year with Ryan Truex driving so the team definitely can carry their weight as well.
Chase Briscoe $8,700
Briscoe has a win at the Roval last year and a 6th place last week at Watkins Glen. He is a fantastic young driver who has more ability on these tracks than most priced above him. Legit top 5 upside and one of my favorite plays this week. He is priced well and could be the perfect play for those lineups where you aren’t taking the likes of Allgaier, Cindric, etc.
Brandon Jones $8,500
Brandon Jones has a horrible road racing record. In four races here he has a best finish of 14th. He is in a good car and can definitely get into the top 10 but just not someone I would want to rely on.
Regan Smith $8,200
Regan finished 2nd here in 2014 and followed it up by winning in 2015. He is a solid road racer who I believe will end up finishing top 10. He hasn’t done a ton of racing the last couple years so seat time has been lacking. If he stays out of trouble he is a great play at a very good price.
Jack Hawksworth $8,100
Perhaps the worst pricing job in Draftkings history. Hawksworth came up through the road racing scene dominating the Star Mazda Championship. He then went on to win 3 times in Indy Lights before moving to the Indy Car Series. In recent years he has been running Sports cars and has won two of the six races to start the 2019 season. Oh yeah he is driving the #18 for Joe Gibbs and was fastest in final practice. He is an amazing play who is a borderline lock. AT this price he would have to wreck or have mechanical failure to not pay off. Legit dom threat
Garrett Smithley $8,000
If he qualifies very bad he is an okay play. Otherwise he has a very, very limited upside. His upside is somewhere inside the top 25.
Chris Dyson $7,900
Dyson is driving the #90 car this week. He comes from the road racing ranks and has driven pretty much everything out there. He is currently running Trans-Am with some success and often runs in the IMSA series. He has a ton of experience, over two decades, with this kind of racing. He has top 15 upside but my expectation is he will end up somwhere between 17th-20th. Decent play if he qualifies poorly considering his upside.
Lawson Aschenbach $7,700
Lawson is another solid road racer who currently competes in the GTD class of the IMSA series. He will be driving the #4 for JDM which is normally driven by Ross Chastain, Landon Cassill, etc. He has driven a couple Xfinity races in the past with finishes of 18th and 21st. He is another driver with top 15 upside but much like Dyson will likely end up a little further back.
Ryan Sieg $7,600
Sieg has finishes of 12th, 14th and 16th here. That is roughly where I see him finishing again this week. He has really struggled his last five road course races but that is mostly due to crashes. With the right place differential he can be a really solid play and hopefully his recent history makes him someone who will be lower owned than normal.
Jeremy Clements $7,400
Clements is mostly known for winning at Road America a couple years back. He is a really solid road course driver who has shown he can finish inside the top 15 on a regular basis. He does have a rough history here but that doesn’t really concern me. His current hot streak of nine finishes of 16th or better in his last ten races makes me feel even better about Clements shaking the bad history and delivering a solid score at a great price.
Gray Gaulding $7,300
Really enjoying everything he is doing this year. He has finish inside the top 20 in FOURTEEN straight races. He is averaging a 16th place finish during that time and has broken 30 DK points TEN times. He finishes 16th last week at Watkins Glen and there is no reason to say he can’t do it again this week. This track rewards aggression and a more technical road racer which he certainly isn’t but his safe style can easily see him avoid any issues and secure a solid finish. I don’t love him for GPP unless he qualifies poorly but a solid cash play
Aaron Quine $7,200
Quine is driving the #74 for Mike Harmon. He is stupidly over priced. Not much in terms of good history and the car is simply bad equipment. I don’t expect him to qualify bad enough to offer the place diff. that could make him viable. Likely fade unless he starts 35th on back and even then upside is limited.
Brandon Brown $7,100
Driving the #68 car this week. Brown actually made his way to 18th place last week at the Glen which is as good as he could have expected. He certainly is not good on this style of racing but he is unlikely to put a wheel off. If he qualifies poorly like last week he will be playable but his upside should be very limited. Good price. for a driver who can possibly score 30ish points
Josh Williams $6,900
Williams is similar to Brown much like last week. Qualified poorly and was able to stay clean and finish 19th. If same scenario arises he is a decent play but his finishing position upside is also limited.
Ray Black Jr $6,800
Nothing to really like here. He has an outside shot at a top 20 but unless he qualifies poorly which I don’t expect he won’t end up scoring enough. Like Williams and Brown only play if he qualifies rather deep in the field.
Joey Gase $6,700
I have no faith in this dude for the rest of the year. Lots of people will look at his history and think he is a solid play but that was driving for a different team. His current team fields a fleet of cars most of which start and park on a weekly basis. Play at your own risk. Luckily they priced him so high he will struggle to reach good value either way
Stephen Leicht $6,600
Much like last week Leicht is one of the better punt plays. He started 28th and finished 20th scoring a solid 30 points. If he qualifies towards the back again I will be all over him for this week as well. He is truly an underrated driver and always gets the most out of every situation.
Patrick Gallagher $6,400
Gallagher is driving the #99 for BJ McLeod this week. He is an Ohio native with tons of lower lever sports car experience. My expectation is he can finish somewhere inside the top 25 so it will depend on where he starts whether or not he will be a good play. Another driver reliant on place diff.
Scott Heckert $6,300
Still smiling over my Heckert write up last week and everything remains the same. I actually like him a bit more this week on a more technical track. He will offer top 15 upside again. His price did come up some but not enough to throw me off.
Josh Bilicki $6,100
Bilicki had a fantastic run going before getting involved in a late race incident last week at Watkins Glen. As mentioned before he has legit road racing skills and after running 21 laps in practice he doesn’t appear to be a start and park risk this week. This dude drove the #45 which was perhaps the worst car last year to a 20th place finish which is as impressive as it gets. I even have this guy as a top 10 threat but likely to end up in the mid teens.
BJ McLeod $6,000
BJ is in the #15 again this week for JDM. He is not very good at this racing and will struggle to break top 25. Unless he qualifies extremely poorly there are better plays elsewhere and can be avoided.
David Starr $5,800
The #52 is a mediocre car with top 25 upside. Only downside is it often has reliability issues. If the car hold up he can be an ok play as he will likely qualify poorly however I do think there are several other better plays.
Tommy Joe Martins $5,500
Tommy Joe comes in at a good price again this week. He is back driving the #66 this week and has a legit shot at a top 20. At this price I am happy to take another shot at him as a cheap punt.
Vinnie Miller $5,400
Miller will qualify horribly bad. Lets just see if he can make the start of the race this week. If you want to pray for tons of DNFs for this to pay off you can play him. I would recommend fading.
Will Rodgers $5,200
Rodgers is a fantastic road racer who has 4 wins in the K&N Series on road course and two runner up finishes. He is the PUNT PLAY OF THE WEEK and will offer top 15 and even possibly top 10 upside. He will be driving the #86 normally driven by Brandon Brown.
Max Tullman $5,100
Is driving the #53 owned by Jimmy Means which is a teammate to the #52. My belief is this is a start and park and should be avoided.
Chad Finchum $5,000
Driving the #13. Likely Start and Park not worth playing.
JJ Yeley $4,900
Driving the #38 again this week. This car is basically always a start and park. Should be the case again this week.