What’s up everyone?! Welcome to The Inside Line: Xfinity Series. Larkin8 here and this week we will be covering all the drivers participating in the Food City 300 NASCAR XFINITY Series race at Bristol Motor Speedway. If you have any other questions be sure to jump into the NASCAR Talk slack channel for assistance from our NASCAR coaches. You can follow me on Twitter @Larkin8
Kyle Busch $14,000
The clear and obvious favorite to dominate and win this week. Kyle has won eight of his last fifteen Bristol Xfinity races and has led 1,722 laps in that span or 114 laps led per race. Realistically only way he doesn’t pay off is if he has a wreck or mechanical issue. Even if he doesn’t win the fast laps and laps led points are sure to be racked up by KB.
Joey Logano $13,500
Logano is really good here at Bristol but it will be tough for him to contend with the Gibbs trio of Busch, Bell and Jones in the Gibbs affiliated XCI Racing #81. I think he can definitely finish top 5 but the Penske Xfinity cars haven’t been strong enough the last couple years here to make me a consider him a massive dom threat. If he offers some place diff he can certainly rack up some fast laps and score well but might be better to pay down and make a stronger lineup.
Christopher Bell $12,100
Bell has a win and a 2nd place finish in his last two Bristol races. Over the course of his three races here he has led 110 laps. He is a strong top 5 contender and can even lead parts of this race. Much like Logano his price is a concern and if we get another Kyle Busch dominating performance it might be hard for Bell to pay off.
Tyler Reddick $11,300
Reddick ran 2nd and led 61 laps here in the Spring. While that was a solid run it is important to note that performance came in a race devoid of Cup Series stars such as Busch and Logano. He is certainly capable of a top 5 but my expectation is he ends up around the 6th-8th range. Little too expensive this week.
Cole Custer $10,600
Custer has for straight top tens and two straight top fives at Bristol. He is yet another driver with top five upside but who I expect to run somewhere inside the top ten. There are a bunch of strong teams and drivers to contend with. Will look for some place differential help to make him a good play this week.
Justin Allgaier $10,100
Allgaier has been one of the best here at Bristol over the years and is my favorite play of the Xfinity Series regulars in the field. He has six top fives in his last eight races and has led 260 laps over the last four Bristol races. He was the best car here in the Spring before getting involved in an accident and finishing 30th. My expectation is for JA to contend for a top five yet again and collect a decent amount of fast laps. He is priced much better than his contemporaries as well.
Erik Jones $9,700
Jones is in the #81 for XCI Racing this week. The team has a close affiliation with Joe Gibbs and is essentially just another Gibbs car. It will certainly have speed as we saw with Jones being fastest in Xfinity practice. He is fantastic here at Bristol winning 2 of his last 3 Xfinity starts. Strong top five car and someone I think can contend for the win. Dave Rogers who is an elite Cup level crew chief is on the pit box for Jones for this race.
Austin Cindric $9,400
Cindric is coming off back to back wins in the Xfinity Series with both coming on road courses. Momentum is sure to be high but he is heading to a track where he has had little success. He has one top ten in his three races here which came this past spring in a race lacking much top competition. I believe he will have a shot at a top ten but other than that I don’t expect a whole lot out of him. If he qualifies poorly he may be worth a shot based off place diff.
John H. Nemechek $9,100
Nemechek has been really good here in trucks with multiple top five finishes and also finished fifth here in the Spring Xfinity race. Stronger field should push him back a bit but I believe a top ten is very likely out of him. Definitely one of his stronger tracks.
Michael Annett $8,800
This has been a solid track for Annett who has finished 12th or better in eight of his last nine Bristol races. Only bad thing is he has never finished inside the top five. Seems like a safe play but could lack the needed upside to make him an optimal play this week. I like him for cash but not too much for gpp.
Justin Haley $8,500
Haley finished 6th in the truck race here last year and 7th in the Xfinity race earlier this year. If he can keep his nose clean which he has done all year I believe he can sneak his way into the top ten. Price wise is decent but multiple plays under him that I believe have higher upsides.
Noah Gragson $8,200
Gragson actually hasn’t shown much in his Bristol history and seems to be a fringe top ten driver at best here. The thing that gives me hope is the current run of form he is on with ten top tens in the last eleven races. He finished 9th in the race here earlier this year but at this price that might be all that is needed.
Chase Briscoe $8,000
Briscoe finished 4th here in the spring and I believe he has a better finishing position upside than the five drivers above him in price. Strong play who should finish in that 5th-8th range.
Jeb Burton $7,800
Burton is back in the #8 for JRM this week where he has scored three top five finishes in three starts this season. My expectation for him is that a good clean race could see him sneak into the top ten but will likely end up around 12th-15th. Really attractive price here for a team that tends to have speed no matter who is in the car.
Brandon Jones $7,600
Jones is a good gpp play this week. He is still risky as always because of his high crash rate. The upside with him is he will be a top ten caliper car and has led 125 laps over the last three races here. While I don’t think he will actually lead tonight I look at that as a sign that he can compete with his Xfinity Contemporaries and score a solid finish.
Ryan Sieg $7,400
Sieg has three straight top 15 finishes here at Bristol. He also has an average finish in 2019 of 14th. He is fairly consistent overall and will again likely end up inside the top 15. Fairly good cash play. GPP play with the right place diff.
Garrett Smithley $7,200
Has finished 17th, 16th and 22nd his last three Bristol races. He always seems to struggle qualifying which gives him solid place differential. If that is the case again this week he is certainly worth a play. Glad he is finally back at a manageable price.
Shane Lee $7,000
Lee has been a really good play so far this year. He has put together DK performances of 34, 40 and 37.5 in his last four races which included a 7th place finish at Iowa. I expect him to end up somewhere just inside the top 20.
Gray Gaulding $6,800
Gaulding is solid as a rock. Coming off his 7th straight race of 30+ DK points. He has finished top 20 in 19 of the last 20 races with 11 top 15s during that stretch. Has been the best lower mid tier cash play all year and I expect the same this week. Top 20 with top 15 upside.
Josh Williams $6,700
Williams had an issues in practice and ended up making contact with the wall. Add that to the on going feud with Brandon Brown which still seems to be simmering and there is some concern this week with Williams. This also is not one of his better tracks and I see him wit
Jeremy Clements $6,500
Clements continues to be awesome value. He has finished 16th or better in ten of the last eleven races in 2019 . He also has finished 13th in the last two Bristol races and has finished 18th or better in seven of the last nine here. Just ultra consistent and a good cash and gpp play at this price.
Brandon Brown $6,400
As mentioned above there is some legit tension between Josh Williams and Brown which is always sketchy when heading to Bristol. Has only run two races at Bristol with finishes or 25th and 23rd. Not excited about what he can deliver this week.
Ray Black Jr $6,200
Black has raced here six times and finished 21st or better in four of those races. I like him to match that this week and expect to see him finish towards the back end of the top 20. Good price if he can do so with some place diff.
Stephen Leicht $6,100
Back in the #01 this week Leicht is a mediocre at best play. There are tons of good plays around him and will likely only have value if he qualifies poorly. Still a solid driver overall just not that place diff to be viable.
David Starr $6,000
Starr has run three races at Bristol with Means Motorsports and has finished top 25 in all three of them with a best finish of 21st. I expect the same type performance this week. Another driver in need of place diff to really pay off.
Joe Graf Jr $5,900
Graf is driving the #10 for Kaulig Racing. This is a solid top 15 car but this is a situation where the driver isn’t as good as the equipment he is driving. Still expect him to be able to finish top 20 and score decently which at this price is good enough.
Landon Cassill $5,800
Cassill returns to the #4 this week for JDM. I fully expect him to finish top 20 and maybe even top 15. He is a solid driver with tons of experience. Great price here.
BJ McLeod $5,700
BJ has a fairly good track record here with three straight top 20 finishes. He is relatively consistent and is a solid short track driver. He can definitely duplicate this simply by running a clean race. Decent play.
Ronnie Bassett Jr $5,600
Bassett is in the #90 this week. Top 25 car at a decent price. Hopefully he stays away from the sweeper that took his brother out a couple weeks ago.
Joey Gase $5,500
Very likely a start and park. I would recommend avoiding and letting him beat you. Plenty of other punts that are much safer plays.
Matt Mills $5,400
Mills does a great job of staying out of trouble and offering good place diff. Solid punt play. Top 25 upside
Chad Finchum $5,300
Driving the #66 this week. Possible start and park situation. Similar to Gase probably better to play it safe.
Vinnie Miller $5,200
Finally priced how he should be. Good punt play. Can definitely place diff his way to the optimal.
Tyler Matthews $5,100
In the #74 for Mike Harmon. Should attempt the whole race but perhaps the weaks of the punts. Worth a shot but there are better plays out there
Tommy Joe Martins $5,000
Martins is in the #13 car this week which has been a start and park car all year. Fully expect that to be the same again this week. Fade
Camden Murphy $4,900
Raced once for RSS this year and finished 24th. He is in the #38 this week. There is some start and park concern but Murphy seems to attempt full races and that is what I expect. Could be a decent play but if you want to play it safe there is definitely other plays available.
Timmy Hill $4,800
Hill is driving the #61 this week. They are using the #42 owner points so they should be locked into the field. This appears to actually be in conjunction with Hattori Racing from the truck series. Hattori attemoted to make Daytona but had Mechanical issues before qualifying. This may be a make up race for their sponsors. Either way this should be a decent car that attempts the entire race and could possibly have top 20 upside. Great punt play situation that very well could go overlooked.
Cj McLaughlin $4,700
Finished 28th in his lone Xfinity start of 2019. He will be driving the #99 for BJ McLeod’s team this week. While I don’t think he has a ton of position upside I do think he can be a decent punt play if he starts towards the very back. Expect him to finish in that 28th-30th range but can do better with a little carnage.
JJ Yeley $4,600
Start and Park fade.
Bayley Currey $4,500
Start and Park fade.
Mason Diaz $4,400
Diaz has had a rough go of it in his two starts in 2019. This has seen him drop to a ridiculous price. He is in a top 20 caliber car and can be a really solid punt play this week. If will need to qualify his way into the race but I don’t anticipate that being an issue.
Morgan Shepherd $4,300
Start and Park fade.