Hello again Army, and welcome to this week’s Calming the Chaos! We’re back at it at another road course again this week, and man do I just love these races. I wish we had more of them!
As always, if you haven’t already, be sure to check out my driver list & tools suite, as this article will directly tie into it.
Watkins Glen International
It might be a road course, but it’s a little different than Sonoma. Still, there are enough similarities (at least compared to most other tracks we see) that we can draw some conclusions from what we saw at that race (and we can use that data plus what we get this weekend for the Roval next month). I’ve already noted a lot of the important points in my notes, but I’ll touch on them here too. Let’s get to it!
WARNING – This is an impound race, so that means we could very well see the field get flipped around again like we saw last weekend. I’ve already put out my notes (and will be doing this article) based on the original qualifying, so if we get some people failing tomorrow, I’ll update as necessary. Keep an eye on #nascar-news-and-notes as well!
Lineup construction/correlation
Like Pocono and the other races with a small number of laps, we don’t want to go heavy on the dominators here. I would go for one of them in most lineups, and don’t be afraid to run some lineups out there without any of them, because it’s entirely possible we see multiple lead changes. No other track has a fewer number of total laps than Watkins Glen/Sonoma, so don’t go crazy on the dominators here!!
I like a balanced lineup in all formats, as well as some value/value stud heavy lineups for GPP. I think a lineup like that is going to be what brings home the big prizes this weekend. That mid/mid-high range has some excellent plays in it this weekend, so I think that’s where a lot of our focus should be.
Hybrids
You’d think the hybrids would be full of heavy hitters here, but with how qualifying currently looks…there’s only one that really stands out. That’s Logano of course, and he’s a default cash option as well as a very strong GPP choice. It’s easy to recommend him anywhere that you can fit him.
Harvick and Keselowski are up next for GPP purposes, but I can’t really say I like them any more than I do Logano. They’re worth shuffling around in GPP of course…but I wish I were more excited about them. Mostly the same can be said for Bowyer, but he’s more cash viable thanks to his cheaper price. Do not take him in cash over Logano though!
Dominators
Thanks to his history, continued progress at these tracks, and his pole, Chase makes a solid play in all formats here. If you’re using a dominator for cash games I would default to him. For GPP purposes, he’s got a 50+ lead lap and a top-5 ceiling here, so definitely have him in the mix.
Kyle Busch is up next for obvious reasons, and it’s Truex after that. While Truex has looked very good at road courses, do remember that he’ll still need to dominate to really pay off, so I can’t say go all-in on him or anything. He’ll have to get by two other very capable road course drivers to do that. Still, definitely have these two in the mix, as they’re the most likely to dominate here along with Chase.
Studs
This category is split right down the middle; we have three very solid plays as well as three fade candidates.
Blaney and Suarez are both very solid options for all formats, though if you aren’t sold on Suarez, you can just default to Blaney for cash. Either way, be sure to have plenty of exposure to both of them in GPP because they have the kind of ceiling that we’ll need this weekend (and where the hybrids are mostly lacking). Stack them or pick and choose, whatever floats your boat.
Jones is up next and he’s not too far behind the other two (possibly ahead, he’s just not starting as deep). He’s capable of a top-5 here, perhaps even higher if he continues to do better at road courses. He had a 10th place finish here in the #77 (in 2017) and 8th, 7th, and 5th place finishes in the #20 between Watkins Glens and Sonoma. Awesome!
Our fade candidates are next, and they are Johnson, Larson, and Almirola. I gave my reasons in my fade notes (can be found in the driver list), so I won’t get into much detail here, but I will say I won’t be playing any of them this weekend.
Value studs
Here are some more good options! Newman is first on the list, and he’s your default cash option in this price range. He’s an easy GPP play too, so be sure to have plenty of exposure to him.
Bowman and Menard are next up for the strongest GPP plays/pivots here. Both have been making progress at these tracks, and I think both of them are capable of contending for a top-10 by the end of this thing. You can mix and match them, with or without Newman, however you see fit. They don’t cut into each other’s floors or ceilings, and they all have a pretty good shot of winding up in the winning lineup.
After that it’s Buescher, Hemric, and Austin/Byron, and I like them in that order. Honestly, every value stud has a high ceiling this week, so feel free to mix and match them all over your GPP pool.
Value
Ragan is the cash guy here if you’re wanting to go cheap (mostly due to him starting 31st). He’s certainly in play for GPP too, but I do like DiBenedetto and Preece a lot more for their much higher ceilings. Get plenty of exposure to DiBenedetto here, because as we’ve seen, a road course is somewhere that he’s capable of making a lot of noise at (he finished 4th at Sonoma). The same can be said for Preece, as he did well at road courses and other niche type tracks in Xfinity, so don’t forget about him!
The others are mostly a mixed bag here, so you can sprinkle them around – Tifft, Ty Dillon, Kligerman, Wallace, and McDowell would be those options (be very careful with McDowell, or just fade him if you aren’t comfortable taking a shot like that).
Punts
Sorenson is easily my favorite punt here, and not just because he’s starting 37th. He has some good history here and is viable in all formats. Chastain is in the mix too, he’s just not nearly as strong of a play. Sprinkle him around in GPP if you want, but favor Sorenson when you can.
The rest are just kind of meh. I’m fine with just fading them.
Stacks
This isn’t really a track where teams look to work together like they can at others, so the stacks aren’t really in play here outside of something like Chase + Bowman or Logano + Blaney.
Pivots
As usual, this race is pivots galore! Focus on the value studs/studs/value plays for most of your pivots. I’d recommend just hammering those drivers into your lineups (perhaps using the dominator stacking feature in the DS). Whatever you do, get plenty of exposure to them, because they look to be the drivers you’ll need to mix and match to be different and win a GPP.
Dominators and the hybrids come next (it’s so weird seeing the hybrids in last, but hey..it happens). Outside of the three main dominators (Chase, Kyle Busch, and Truex), I’m not really big on anybody else dominating this race, but you can sprinkle in some others if you feel like somebody else can stand up to them.
Closing thoughts
There’s not a whole lot left to go over. Remember that we have inspection in the morning and things can quickly change, so keep an eye on #nascar-news-and-notes to get the latest. Mind your bankroll, play some cash, and go crazy on the pivots in GPP. Take some chances with long shots, and eat some chalk in your lineups because there’s always some chalk in the winning lineups. Other than that, good luck today, and I’ll see you all in Slack!