Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! To kick things off, if you aren’t familiar with how I do things, you can get up to speed here: carnage rating system and tiers & classic batter sheets. If you have any questions, reach out to me in our coaching channels (@nillyJay or just swing by my channel #nillys-garage-nas-mlb).
Here is the initial carnage report for the day. You can keep an eye on it right here to get the most up-to-date information as the day goes on, and the final version should be ready by around 4:00 pm central time.
A look at pitchers
Whew, this one is kind of a mess today! Even though we have a lot of options, most of them aren’t particularly great, so we’ll have to make the best of what we have.
That said, Morton looks to be the strongest option, especially for cash game purposes, as he carries the best carnage rating, VKSCORE, and implied run total.
With their slate-leading KSCOREs, Castillo and Velasquez look to be good GPP options, as well as Minor, Hendricks, and Giolito. An interesting mid-range option would be Gonsolin, but that’s more because the Cardinals have never faced him. His raw stats here are from a small sample size.
As always, keep an eye on the coach’s notes to see where we’re going as the day and research continues!
Offenses to target
On the flip side, when there are rough pitching options, that just means there are a lot of good options for the offenses, and that definitely holds true today. We have a whopping seven offenses facing a pitcher with a carnage rating of 6.0 or worse, which is by far the most I can remember in recent history.
On top of that, we have three teams facing newer/debuting pitchers (Rangers, Reds, and the Mets), so they are in the discussion today as well.
Full Count Breakdown
Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburg Pirates
We’ll kick things off in Pittsburgh with the Brewers and Pirates, where we already start with a 10.0 implied total (that’s only slightly above average, which tells you a lot about this slate). As will be the theme in most of these games, the offenses are more interesting, so I’d focus on them here.
Brewers 5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 4 star plays – Moustakas, Grandal, Thames
GPP note – The lefties are the primary targets here, but Cain and Hiura could be worth a look as well
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Bell, Frazier, Moran
GPP note – The lefties are the main focus here too, though they haven’t had any real success against Lyles in the past, so we don’t have any BvP to go off of
New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
Next up is…oh boy. Another home run derby at Camden Yards. If it weren’t for Tanaka, this game would have a much higher implied total, but don’t think that means we should just overlook the Orioles here. They’ve shown time and time again that they can go off against good pitchers, especially at home, so he’s by no means safe here. As for the Yankees, well…yikes. This could easily be the highest-scoring game of the day.
Yankees 5 star plays – LeMahieu
Yankees 4 star plays – Judge, Encarnacion, Voit, Torres, Gregorious…literally everybody
GPP note – Bombs away!!
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Mancini (BvP), Villar, Santander, Davis (BvP)
GPP note – They aren’t as cheap as they used to be, but they still have tons of potential and a high ceiling
Los Angeles Angels at Cincinnati Reds
We get one of our (very few) strong pitching options here with Castillo, but he’s facing the Angels, a team that is anything but a pushover. The Reds will get some sort of a bullpen game, and their high implied total (5.73) was a little surprising to see. All in all, this game screams GPP to me, so I’d look elsewhere for cash games.
Angels 5 star plays – none
Angels 4 star plays – Trout, Ohtani, Calhoun
GPP note – Tough matchup against Castillo, but they’re always a threat to go off, so you can make some contrarian stacks here
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Suarez, Senzel, Votto
GPP note – High implied total but it’s a bullpen game, which they might use to their advantage to break up any momentum the Reds might get
Texas Rangers at Cleveland Indians
It’s a Mike Minor game next, as even with as good as he’s been, Vegas still likes the Indians to get 5 or more runs here today. He held them down earlier this season, so don’t be afraid to take some shots with him in GPP, because when they Indians are snoozing, they can put up a major dud.
The Rangers will face Civale in only his second start, and with how much the Rangers like to strike out, he could be another good value option for GPP.
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Choo, Santana, Mazara, Calhoun
GPP note – They’ll either strike out a bunch or put up a bunch of runs. It’s a coin flip, so if you want exposure here, you might want to hedge some Rangers’ stacks with some Civale exposure in other lineups
Indians 5 star plays – none
Indians 4 star plays – Lindor, Santana, Ramirez, Mercado, Puig
GPP note – Tough matchup against Minor who held them down once already. There’s not much BvP here either. If you want to stack here, go for the righties
Protip: always be sure to keep an eye on #dfs-weather and our MLB Weather Station Tab throughout the day!
Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers
We get another high-end pitcher here, but again, the implied total against him is a bit higher than I would have expected. The Tigers have not faced Giolito yet this year, so I think this one will go in his favor. Be sure you have some GPP exposure to him today as his ceiling is among the highest on the slate.
As for Turnbull, well, it’s hard to know if he’s going to have a good game or another dud, but he can easily pay off his salary with one of his good games, so he could be worth having exposure to as well. I’m not big on either offense here but would favor Chicago if I had to choose.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Moncada, Garcia, Sanchez
GPP note – It all depends on which Turnbull shows up, so you can take some lower-owned stacks here and hope the bad one does
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Candelario, Goodrum
GPP note – Tough matchup against Giolito, who could very well stop them dead in their tracks today
Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox
My Royals travel up north to meet the Red Sox today, and boy oh boy does Vegas expect some fireworks here…at least from the home team. They have the highest implied total on the board (currently 7.32), so expect them to be chalky today.
However! Don’t forget about the other side of this game. Porcello is known to implode with the best (worst?) of them when he has a bad game, and my guys can quickly take advantage of that if given the chance. This game features both some good chalk and a good contrarian stack, so don’t overlook all the possibilities in this one today.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Merrifield, Gordon (BvP), Soler, Dozier
GPP note – Porcello is no stranger to allowing some hits/runs, especially when he implodes, so don’t forget about these guys today!
Red Sox 5 star plays – Betts, Martinez
Red Sox 4 star plays – Bogaerts, Devers
GPP note – The BvP here sucks, but Montgomery can’t stop allowing runs lately. Stack away!
Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays
Finally, a cash game pitcher! Morton will take the mound against the Blue Jays and their 2.91 implied total, so even with Tampa’s 5.09, this game is the lowest on the board today at 8. Tampa also has the best carnage rating on the board today against Waguespack, so look to them for a lower-owned alternative to the chalkier teams (or mix them to help get a little different today).
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Smoak, Galvis, Gurriel
GPP note – Tough matchup against Morton, so I wouldn’t go overboard here with all the other great options we have today
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Pham, Meadows, Choi, Sogard
GPP note – Best carnage rating on the board today..stack away! Use them to help make your chalkier stacks a little different
Miami Marlins at New York Mets
We get game #2 of the double-header here, which means we’ll need to keep a close eye on the starting lineups since they can change a lot from what the projected lineups are. Fortunately the game is somewhat close to lock, so hopefully, we’ll get that information in a timely manner.
That said, both pitchers here are budget-bombers, so if you want to take a random shot with some stacks, these two are decent options (I’d save them for large field GPP).
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Rojas, Anderson
GPP note – It’s a dart throw. Stack them if you want a super-low owned offense
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – McNeil, Conforto, Alonso
GPP note – Same as above, but I guess they’d be more likely to go off (favor the lefties and Alonso)
The starting lineups page is a useful tool to get a quick view of all of the teams, and I especially like the home run predictor to use for Monkey Knife Fight props!
Oakland Athletics at Chicago Cubs
We get another solid total (9.5) here, but this is one where I want to call the under. Both pitchers have been good, Hendricks can really keep an offense down, and there’s nearly nothing for BvP here outside of Piscotty. I think the move here is to target both pitchers in GPP, or at least Hendricks (if you don’t want to attack the Cubs at home). Otherwise, I think a one-off or mini-stack could work from the Cubs with a Piscotty one-off.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Piscotty (BvP), Olson, Semien, Davis
GPP note – Hendricks is good at limiting an offense’s ceiling, so be careful here
Cubs 5 star plays – Rizzo, Bryant
Cubs 4 star plays – Heyward, Schwarber, Baez
GPP note – Bassitt has been decent himself but does allow a little bit here and there. I’d prefer a one-off or mini-stack instead of a full-stack here
Atlanta Braves at Minnesota Twins
We have some potential rain concerns with this next one, so keep an eye on #dfs-weather if you’re using any players here.
Weather concerns aside, we have two potent offenses going head to head here, and I think that at least one of them will do some damage here. I’d lean towards the Braves doing it since Odorizzi is off, but Soroka has been known to have a bad game here and there too.
Braves 5 star plays – Acuna, Freeman
Braves 4 star plays – Donaldson/McCann (BvP), Albies
GPP note – It’s not a bad idea to attack Odorizzi while he’s still showing some weakness
Twins 5 star plays – Cruz
Twins 4 star plays – Kepler, Polanco, Rosario
GPP note – It’s a tougher matchup for the Twins, but the lefties (and Cruz) are certainly worth a look against a righty, even if it is Soroka
Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks
This one game mimics the previous one (same implied total and everything), and Velasquez will be tasked with trying to slow down the Diamondback’s recent surge. As for the Phillies, they’ve been struggling a bit and need some wins, so look to them to try and take advantage of Kelly and his 6.0 carnage rating.
Phillies 5 star plays – Harper
Phillies 4 star plays – Hernandez, Hoskins, Segura
GPP note – They really need some wins and get a decent matchup here, so they could be an overlooked offense with a high ceiling today
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Escobar, Peralta, Marte, Dyson
GPP note – It’s not a super easy matchup for them by any means, but they seem to stay hot when they get hot, so they’re in play again today
Playing some cash games today? If you haven’t already, be sure to check out these 7 Tips for MLB Cash Games!
Washington Nationals at San Francisco Giants
I’m going to say something I don’t normally say here, but I have some interest in Fedde, even though he has the second-worst carnage rating on the board today (as well as some other bad stats). So…why exactly?! Well, for the simple fact that the Giants are coming out of Coors. This is more of a GPP SP2 DraftKings play, but for how cheap he is, if he can approach 20 DKFP, he can help win a GPP. I think it’s certainly within the realm of possibilities today. I’m not advocating him for cash!
As for the Nationals, Shark has been pretty good, but they do know him pretty well, so don’t be afraid to take some shots with them, even if only as a one-off or mini-stack.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Turner/Parra (BvP), Rendon, Soto, Kendrick (BvP, if he plays)
GPP note – Shark has been good lately but there’s some serious BvP here, so don’t be afraid to stack them even with their relatively low implied total
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Belt, Crawford, Yastrzemski, Sandoval, Vogt
GPP note – They’ve never faced Fedde before but the fact that they’re coming out of Coors will keep me off of them today
St Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers
And finally, our hammer game features the Cardinals and Dodgers, where we’ll get one of my favorite situations in baseball…the Cardinals going up against a pitcher they’ve never faced. If you aren’t aware, they tend to struggle against pitching they’ve never seen before, which usually puts me off of them and gets me interested in the pitcher they’re facing. We don’t know a ton about Gonsolin either though, so lean GPP there if you use him.
As for the Dodgers, well, it’s the Dodgers against a righty, so the lefties are worth a look here. Wacha has been decent but he’s allowed plenty of homers, so look to the lefties here to get one or two of them.
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt, Fowler, Edman, DeJong
GPP note – They’ve never faced Gonsolin which concerns me a bit. A one-off might be the best bet here
Dodgers 5 star plays – Bellinger
Dodgers 4 star plays – Pederson, Muncy, Seager, Pollock (BvP, if he plays)
GPP note – The lefties here are always worth a look against a righty (plus Pollock’s BvP)
And that’s going to do it for this one. Good luck today, and I’ll see you all in Slack!