Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! To kick things off, if you aren’t familiar with how I do things, you can get up to speed here: carnage rating system and tiers & classic batter sheets. If you have any questions, reach out to me in our coaching channels (@nillyJay or just swing by my channel #nillys-garage-nas-mlb).
Here is the initial carnage report for the day. You can keep an eye on it right here to get the most up-to-date information as the day goes on, and the final version should be ready by around 10:00 am central time.
A look at pitchers
For the main slate we have a few strong options, such as Wheeler against the Royals, Boyd against the Marlins, and Flaherty against the Reds. At first glance, they look to be strong cash options, and they also offer plenty of upside for GPP use. Be sure to keep an eye on the coach’s notes page to see where they’re looking!
Offenses to target
There’s plenty of red all over the place today, which means there are plenty of good spots to attack. I’ll get into them below, but for now, consider the Brewers and Mets to be strong options, as well as the Blue Jays, Red Sox, Padres, and even the Orioles. As always, keep an eye on the coach’s notes page to see what other great options are found!
Full Count Breakdown (main slate)
San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies
We’ll kick things off today with a decent pitcher’s matchup, though it certainly favors Lucchesi a bit. Vargas is good at having the random big game, so both of these pitchers are worth a look today. Vargas can also implode at a moment’s notice, so hedging here with some Padres might be a good idea.
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Machado, Margot, Myers, Renfroe
GPP note – Righties are the way to go here and the Padres have plenty of them
Phillies 5 star plays – none
Phillies 4 star plays – Harper, Hoskins, Segura, Realmuto
GPP note – Tough matchup against a pitcher they have very little experience with, so I can’t say I love full stacks here
Cleveland Indians at New York Yankees
We get another good pitching matchup here, though it won’t exactly be easy for either team considering who they are facing. Still, I don’t see this game going off huge, as both pitchers are good at mitigating damage. There are plenty of smaller options for the offenses though, such as one-offs and mini-stacks on both sides.
Indians 5 star plays – none
Indians 4 star plays – Santana (BvP), Lindor, Ramirez
GPP note – One-offs or mini-stacks would probably be best as Sabathia isn’t prone to allowing tons of damage
Yankees 5 star plays – none
Yankees 4 star plays – LeMahieu, Judge, Torres, Sanchez, Tauchman
GPP note – Clevinger isn’t prone to allowing a ton of damage either, but some small stacks would work here since this team is a living home run derby
Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox
In what could be one of the higher-scoring games on the slate, both teams will face pitchers that are no strangers to allowing plenty of hits, so look to both sides of this one for fantasy purposes. It might not be Camden Yards, but both teams can rack up some runs here quickly if the pitchers are off again.
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Villar, Mancini, Nunez
GPP note – Eovaldi is good at imploding, so some Orioles stacks aren’t out of the question
Red Sox 5 star plays – Betts, Martinez
Red Sox 4 star plays – Bogaerts, Devers
GPP note – Blach allows plenty of hits and dingers, so look to the Red Sox for some stacks (albeit chalky ones)
Protip: always be sure to keep an eye on #dfs-weather and our MLB Weather Station Tab throughout the day!
Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays
Another game with some high-scoring potential, mostly from the home team, we get a Kikuchi game and he’s always worth stacking against in case he has one of his rough games. Pannone has been good though, so it might not be worth going heavy on Seattle stacks.
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Santana
GPP note – Pannone has been decent when he gets some innings, and I don’t see much more than a one-off or two being of much value here
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Bichette, Smoak, Grichuk, Biggio
GPP note – Kikuchi can implode pretty hard when he’s off, and these Blue Jays love to pounce on poor pitching. Put the two together and we have another high-ceiling stack today. Favor the righties when possible
Detroit Tigers at Tampa Bay Rays
The Tigers get a good matchup against Richards here who allows plenty of contact, so that makes them a good lower-budget option to pair up with some chalkier stacks. Boyd has been very good this year, so it’s hard to say I love the Rays here, but if Boyd has a few hiccups this Rays offense will be quick to jump on them. In other words, if you want some contrarian stacks, look no further.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Reyes, Goodrum
GPP note – Richards allows a lot of contact so this could be a good place to grab some lower-owned bats
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Pham, d’Arnaud, Garcia
GPP note – Tough matchup against Boyd but when these bats get hot, they get hot. Could be a decent place to go for some contrarian stacks
St Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds
We’re back to another potential pitcher’s duel here; Flaherty has been nothing short of excellent as of late, and while Wood hasn’t quite gotten there yet, he’ll have a good shot to do it against this Cardinals offense. I’m mostly interested in the pitchers here, but a one-off or mini-stack could be worth taking on both sides.
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt (BvP, 3 homers), Edman, Fowler, Ozuna
GPP note – I don’t love full stacks but there are some good one-off or mini-stack options with high ceilings, like Goldy
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Suarez, VanMeter, Galvis, Aquino
GPP note – Similar to the Cardinals, I think smaller exposure would be best here for the high-ceiling one-offs
The starting lineups page is a useful tool to get a quick view of all of the teams, and I especially like the home run predictor to use for Monkey Knife Fight props!
Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves
Fried has been trending to the good (his rough patches seem to be behind him), and while we haven’t seen a ton from Gonsolin yet this year, he also seems to be trending positively. Once again, this makes me interested in both pitchers here, as they are both in a spot to have a good “surprise outing” against teams that people won’t want to attack. This one screams GPP from all angles.
Dodgers 5 star plays – none
Dodgers 4 star plays – Bellinger, Turner, Smith
GPP note – Fried has been pretty solid, so I don’t think full stacks are the play here. I’d look at one-offs or mini-stacks
Braves 5 star plays – none
Braves 4 star plays – Freeman, Acuna, Albies
GPP note – It’s a bit of an unknown matchup, but some Atlanta exposure is never a bad thing, and they might not be overly popular on this slate
Milwaukee Brewers at Washington Nationals
We’re back to the offenses being in good spots, and I could see this one turning into another shootout like what we had last night. That of course might make this one a little chalky, but there are plenty of places to go with secondary stacks. I would be careful with the pitchers in this one.
Brewers 5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 4 star plays – Moustakas, Grandal, Thames
GPP note – Fedde is no stranger to allowing some hits and homers, so look at the lefties here to do some damage
Nationals 5 star plays – none
4 Nationals star plays – Rendon, Soto, Turner
GPP note – Anderson has allowed a homer in four straight starts, so at the very least look here for a one-off or mini-stack
New York Mets at Kansas City Royals
To wrap up the main slate we have the Mets going up against my Royals again, and this one certainly looks to be in favor of the visitors. Sparkman is good at finding the bats of the other team, and I don’t really see Wheeler having many struggles against these Royals. All in all, I’d look to the Mets for fantasy purposes, and only go with the Royals if you want a lower-owned contrarian option.
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Alonso, Conforto
GPP note – Sparkman is good at allowing some homers, so look here for a high-ceiling stack or some one-offs
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Merrifield, Gordon, Soler
GPP note – Wheeler has been pretty solid and I don’t see my Royals doing a whole lot here
Late slate(s)
Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers
To kick off the late games, we get two home run hungry teams at a hitter friendly ballpark in the middle of August. The Rangers do at least have a good pitcher on the mound, but the same can’t be said for the Twins. Look for the Rangers to do some damage here, but you can go contrarian with the Twins since they’re almost always in play for a high-ceiling game.
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Kepler, Polanco, Rosario
GPP note – Lynn has been solid but this team is always worth a look, especially at this ballpark. Lefties are the stronger choice
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Santana, Andrus, Choo, DeShields
GPP note – Perez allows a lot of contact and doesn’t strike out a ton of batters, which bodes very well for this team. Big stacks are very much in play here
Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies
Ah, Coors. What’s better (or chalkier) than two borderline gascans facing off at Coors? Well, not much, so look here for fantasy goodness from both sides. I’d probably steer clear of the pitchers in this one.
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Walker, Anderson, Diaz
GPP note – They get Lambert at Coors, which is a great opportunity for them to go off here. Big stacks are in play here
Rockies 5 star plays – Blackmon, Arenado
Rockies 4 star plays – Story, Alonso, McMahon
GPP note – Yamamoto can be decent at times but going to Coors will be very difficult for him, so don’t be afraid to eat some chalk here
Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Angels
Another pitcher that can’t stop allowing big hits, Cease will face the Angels who will be eager to jump all over him, so look here for some more firepower. Canning, on the other hand, has been pretty solid, so I wouldn’t look at the White Sox for much except for contrarian stacks.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Abreu, Anderson, Jay
GPP note – It’s not a great matchup and they haven’t seen Canning before, so I’d be a little careful here
Angels 5 star plays – Trout
Angels 4 star plays – Ohtani, Calhoun
GPP note – Cease has yet to go a game without allowing at least one home run, so look here for some fantasy goodness. The usuals are in play here (Trout and the lefties)
Playing some cash games today? If you haven’t already, be sure to check out these 7 Tips for MLB Cash Games!
Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics
Oh man. In another lopsided matchup, the Astros have the advantage on both sides, both pitching and offense, so look to them for most of the production in this one…though they won’t be sneaky by any means.
Astros 5 star plays – Springer, Altuve
Astros 4 star plays – Bregman, Alvarez, Brantley, Correa
GPP note – Anderson allows a lot of hits and a few homers here and there, and this team is full of guys who love to make hard contact. They’ll be chalky, but there’s a lot of upside here
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Davis, Olson
GPP note – Tough matchup for this strikeout prone team against a dominant pitcher, so it’s hard to say I like much here outside of a one-off (there’s not much BvP here, either)
San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks
Hopefully the Giants won’t be a popular option, because they’re certainly in a good spot to to some damage here (see below), so they’re yet another solid stacking option on the day. The Diamondbacks will face Bumgarner who has had a pretty good year, so it’s hard to say that I’m overly interested in those bats.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Yastrzemski, Dickerson, Posey, Pillar
GPP note – Though they were tougher matchups, Kelly has been on a bad slide these last four starts (has allowed 32 hits and a whopping 8 homers in those four games), so if that trend continues, the Giants could be in a good spot to do some damage here
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Marte, Escobar, Walker
GPP note – Bumgarner seems pretty dialed in, so I don’t think stacking against him is the play. A one-off or mini-stack might be okay, though
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates
And finally, our hammer/showdown game features the Cubs and Pirates, as well as two pitchers who have allowed plenty of hits and are just asking to get blown up again. As the day goes on and we research more, we’ll get a better feel for who to go in this one, so keep an eye on the coach’s notes pages to see the showdown notes as they come out!
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Rizzo, Bryant, Heyward, Baez
GPP note – Keller hasn’t allowed many homers (just one over four starts), but has allowed plenty of hits, so I think some homers are coming. There are some strong options here to get one, so anything from one-offs to full-stacks are in play here
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Bell, Marte, Reynolds
GPP note – It sort of depends on which Quintana we see, but there’s a high ceiling here if the bad one shows up, so don’t be afraid to stack here
And that’s going to do it for this one. Good luck today, and I’ll see you all in Slack!