Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! To kick things off, if you aren’t familiar with how I do things, you can get up to speed here: carnage rating system and tiers & classic batter sheets. If you have any questions, reach out to me in our coaching channels (@nillyJay or just swing by my channel #nillys-garage-nas-mlb).
Here is the initial carnage report for the day. You can keep an eye on it right here to get the most up-to-date information as the day goes on, and the final version should be ready by around 4:00 pm central time.
A look at pitchers
I can quickly think of one word to describe the pitching on this slate….YUCK!!! This is easily the ugliest one we’ve had in recent memory (possibly all season), but if we want to play, we’ll have to navigate through the crap and find some gems…if there are any to be found.
At first glance, Greinke looks to be one of the best options, but the initial forecast in Chicago looks pretty bad, so he might not even be an option depending on how mother nature decides to play out. Be sure to keep an eye on #dfs-weather to see if we have anything to worry about there. If we don’t, he’ll probably be the top option for cash games (and will have one of the highest ceilings in GPP, too).
Lucchesi is right behind him, and he does have the advantage of having virtually no BvP history with the Rays (to be fair, the same can be said for Greinke), but that team is definitely more potent than the White Sox are. The ceiling is certainly there though, so consider him for GPP purposes (possibly cash too if Greinke gets rained out). It’s not a surefire matchup though, as we’ll get to later, so cross your fingers for Greinke.
DeSclafani wins the carnage rating battle today, but he’s still pitching against the Nationals with a 5.0 implied total, so a mediocre performance there isn’t going to pay off his higher-than-usual salary.
Aside from that…like I said, yuck. It’s going to be ugly, but keep an eye on the coach’s notes page to see where we’re leaning in this god-forsaken mess of a pitching pool.
Offenses to target
So…pretty much everybody? With six teams facing a pitcher with a 6.27 carnage rating or worse (there are more red ratings than yellow and green combined…), there looks to be a lot of great spots for the bats to go off today. At least there’s something to look forward to!
Leading the way are the Rockies and Diamondbacks because hooray, it’s a Coors slate with a lot of bad pitching. Pretty much every team below them is squarely in play too. Yeah, that’s a lot, and we can’t just go stacking all of them all, so once again, keep an eye on the coach’s notes page to see who we think are the best targets!
Full Count Breakdown
Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees
We’ll kick things off with another Orioles / Yankees game, and even though they aren’t at Camden Yards, I fully expect there to be some more fireworks. While I don’t expect them to be sneaky by any means, you can pivot to this game (both sides really, but the Yankees are the better target of course) to get away from the mega-chalk that will be Coors. As for these pitchers? Meeeh!
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Villar, Mancini, Santander
GPP note – A high-ceiling pivot to the other options today
Yankees 5 star plays – LeMahieu, Judge
Yankees 4 star plays – Tauchman, Ford…everybody?
GPP note – Bombs away!!
Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals
Next up is our carnage rating leader, DeSclafani, going against the worst rating on the board, Fedde. Fun! Anyway, both pitchers have actually done a somewhat decent job at getting a handful of strikeouts and not getting totally shelled (we’ll give you a pass for bombing against the Braves, Fedde), but seeing as both teams have a 5.0 implied total, don’t think that either one of them is cash game worthy. As for the bats, there’s hardly any BvP history here (not a single home run yet, though that probably changes today), so we’ll have to go off of other data points to find the targets here.
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Votto, Winker, VanMeter
GPP note – The lefties are the main targets here and you can either run out a stack of them or use some as a mini-stack to compliment other chalky stacks
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Rendon, Turner
GPP note – The lefties are of course worth a look, but don’t forget about Rendon and Turner, as they are just fine with RvR matchups
Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays
We have the slate’s KSCORE leader here, Jurado, which is pretty sad considering he has the second-worst carnage rating on the board. He’ll face Ramirez/Stewart and the Toronto bullpen here, and at first glance, I think these two (Jurado and Stewart) might be worth using some in GPP. That’s not because I think they are studs or anything, it’s more because both of these teams have strikeout issues here and there, and 3-4 innings of bad batting might allow these pitchers to pay off.
As for the bats, when they aren’t striking out, they’re getting big hits, so both sides are absolutely in play here.
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Choo, Santana, Mazara, Odor
GPP note – If you go here, I recommend going big and hoping they go off as a team (they’re generally an all-or-none stack)
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Biggio, Guerrero, Bichette, Smoak, Galvis
GPP note – Same as the Rangers. Hell, you could game stack here if you want to get away from Coors and still have a high ceiling, as these two teams could have a shootout here
Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Indians
We get two quality pitchers up next, but again, we have two bad carnage ratings and a 5.0 implied total for both teams. Still, both are interesting options, so stay tuned for that.
As for the bats, once again we don’t have much BvP to go off of here, so we’ll have to use other means of research to find who we like (four of them show up on the classic batter sheet, so that’s a start).
Red Sox 5 star plays – none
Red Sox 4 star plays – Betts, Martinez, Devers, Bogaerts, Benintendi
GPP note – I’m more inclined to go with mini-stacks or one-offs here rather than full stacks due to them not facing a total gascan
Indians 5 star plays – none
Indians 4 star plays – Lindor, Ramirez, Santana, Mercado
GPP note – I like one-offs or mini-stacks here too, and mostly from the righties and/or switch-hitters up top
Protip: always be sure to keep an eye on #dfs-weather and our MLB Weather Station Tab throughout the day!
Houston Astros at Chicago White Sox
We kind of need Greinke today, so let’s hope the weather here holds out!
Weather issues aside, everything looks to be on Houston’s side of this one, so look to them for just about everything if you’re looking at this game. Unless you’re wanting to get bold and go contrarian in GPP, there’s not much to like about the Chicago side of this one.
Astros 5 star plays – Alvarez, Altuve, Springer
Astros 4 star plays – Brantley, Bregman, Correa
GPP note – Pretty much everybody is in play here if they don’t get rained out. Keep an eye on the skies!
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Garcia, Abreu
GPP note – Very tough matchup against Greinke, so only go here if you’re going contrarian
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies
Hey look, mega-chalk!! Yep, it’s a Coors slate with bad pitching and the Diamondbacks, a team that enjoys putting up football scores when they have the right matchup, and this is certainly one of those times where they could do it. You can either eat the chalk and try to be different with your one-offs, mini-stacks, or pitchers…or you can get brave and fade this game in favor of another one and hope they drop a dud today.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – Marte
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Escobar, Dyson, Peralta
GPP note – I would either go all-in or all-out, as there’s usually not much in between with these guys
Rockies 5 star plays – Blackmon, Arenado
Rockies 4 star plays – Story, Murphy, McMahon
GPP note – It’s chalky Coors, so like the Diamondbacks, I’d go all-in or all-out
Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Angels
We get a bit of an unknown (Keller) and a pitcher that has had two straight duds to go with an overall bad 2019 campaign, so once again, both offenses are worth a look here. This game is less obvious thanks to Vegas only giving them a 9.5 implied total, so you could go here for some lower-owned stacks today.
Pirates 5 star plays – Bell
Pirates 4 star plays – Marte, Newman, Reynolds
GPP note – Even though their implied total is kind of low, Suarez is a prime target to pick on, so you can go here for some lower-owned bats
Angels 5 star plays – Trout
Angels 4 star plays – Ohtani, Calhoun, Pujols, Upton
GPP note – Keller hasn’t done a ton in his only three appearances this season, so it’s hard to know what to expect here. Still, the Angels have some strong bats, so you can look to them and hope Keller still isn’t blowing away batters
Tampa Bay Rays at San Diego Padres
And finally, our hammer game features another higher-end pitcher, though if you’ve seen the classic batter sheet, you know this is anything but a cake matchup for Luchessi. If you haven’t, well, there are five Rays showing up on there…yikes!
The Padres will get a bullpen game, which makes it difficult to want to run out Pruitt against them since he may see five innings or he may only see two (attacking the Padres isn’t the worst idea, especially on a slate like this). Basically, everything in this game screams GPP, so let’s hope Greinke can pitch for our cash games.
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Pham, d’Arnaud, Garcia, Adames, Heredia (if he plays)
GPP note – It’s not a slam-dunk matchup, but those five Rays have great numbers against lefties right now, so you can go here for a contrarian stack. Any righties are the main targets here
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Machado, Hosmer, Mejia, Tatis, Renfroe
GPP note – This team can be hit or miss, as can bullpen games, but if you’re really struggling to find somewhere to go today, you could roll the dice here (favor the lefties and high ceiling guys like Machado and Renfroe)
And that’s going to do it for this one. Good luck today, and I’ll see you all in Slack!