Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are three pitchers that I find particularly interesting and are in good spots here on this slate.
- Jose Berrios – I’m going to continue to stream pitchers against the Tigers. Verlander and Gerrit Cole just dominated this team and although Berrios isn’t in the same tier as those two this is still an elite spot for him pitching at home. In one start against the Tigers, this season Berrios scored 25.4 Draftkings points. The Tigers have an implied run total of just 3.5 runs here and have a strikeout rate of 27.1% against righties this season. Berrios also has a k rate of 22.7% on the year, at a discounted price tag from Lynn and deGrom, I like Berrios a good deal here.
- Vince Velasquez– Velasquez draws a matchup with the Miami Marlins in Miami which is a pitchers dream due to the size of the ballpark. The Marlins have one of the worst offenses in baseball and are a team that I want to target pitchers against. Miami is striking out at a crazy high 29.1% rate on the season. Velasquez matches that with a 25.3% k rate on the year, these two are enough to get me on Velasquez here but his price is also very nice. Don’t be afraid to get him in as your SP2 or a cheap SP1 on FanDuel.
- Anthony DeSclafani – Many of you know that I like to get three different price ranges in this section and DeSclafani falls under the value column tonight. He feels very underpriced here in a matchup against the Pirates who have an implied run total of 4.6 in Pittsburgh. DeSclafani’s biggest weakness is left-handed hitters and I can really only see Pittsburgh having three decent lefties in their lineup. No, the Pirates don’t strike out a lot but at this price, he really doesn’t need to do a whole lot to pay off his price tag. I like DeSlafani as a very cheap SP2.
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Full Count Breakdown:
Washington Nationals (+115) @ Chicago Cubs (-124)
To no surprise, the Cubs are playing the only day game on this Friday slate. Jon Lester day didn’t go so well for me last time out but I will go right back to the well! Many of you know that I am one of the biggest Jon Lester haters there is, but this is really a nice spot for this Nationals offense. The only thing going against bats all around in this game is the wind blowing in at over 10 mph. This game will only be on a showdown slate, sot the pricing will be funny. Be sure to check out our Coaches Notes/Player Picks on this game for a more in-depth look on player analysis since the pricing for a showdown slate is much different than the full slate.
-> COACHES NOTES/PLAYER PICKS <-
Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles
This game will feature a matchup between Trevor Richards and Ty Blach. As bad as he has been lately, I won’t write off Trevor Richards on this slate. He is really pretty cheap and gets a nice matchup against the Orioles, however, I would rather find the extra money to go to Velasquez or completely punt with DeSclafani. I loved the Rays last night and I love them here again. Blach has a 12.06 era on the season and this is a spot the Rays can take advantage.
TBR 5-star plays: Austin Meadows, Tommy Pham, Ji-man Choi
4-star plays: Jesus Aguilar, Eric Sogard, Matt Duffy
GPP Note: The Rays are a great stack in my opinion and will be on my list of teams as a secondary stack. It’s a big slate so they’re not my favorite, but I certainly won’t talk you off of them in this small park against a bad pitcher.
BAL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Jonathan Villar, Trey Mancini
GPP Note: I may end up getting to some Trevor Richards here, but that doesn’t mean you can’t get to some one-offs here, probably not a stack that I’ll get to.
Cincinnati Reds (-104) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (-104)
Anthony DeSclafani made my pitchers column today as a cheap SP2 option if you want to pay up at SP1 and still get a decent offense. The park is a big factor for me here, so I won’t be getting to the Pirates as a stack. The Pirates will be starting Mitch Keller who is a young kid that they have a lot of hope for. He’s very talented but is still working out some kinks, but again the ballpark is great for pitching. I don’t hate getting to Keller for GPPs, not a game that I’ll be looking at offenses.
CIN 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Aristides Aquino, Eugenio Suarez
GPP Note: Just the power one-offs here for me, I’m not stacking in this ballpark, as usual.
PIT 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Josh Bell, Starlin Marte
GPP Note: I’ll have some interest in DeSclafani here, so similar to the Reds, just the power one-offs.
Atlanta Braves (+159) @ New York Mets (-173)
Jacob deGrom draws the start here for the Mets but gets an incredibly tough matchup with one of the better lineups in the league. deGrom at $11.3k against this offense isn’t something that I’ll see myself getting to, but makes for an elite GPP option. The Braves will send Mike Foltynewicz to the mound against a hot Mets team. I won’t be getting to any Folty here as he’s having a pretty down year.
ATL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna, Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: Although I likely won’t get too much deGrom, I won’t be targeting hitters against him either. Just power one-offs with upside for me.
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso, Michael Conforto
4-star plays: Wilson Ramos (DK), Ahmed Rosario
GPP Note: Not quite a secondary stack, but there are some good plays on this team, enough to make a mini-stack if that’s what you fall on.
Philadelphia Phillies (-172) @ Miami Marlins (+158)
I wrote up Vince Velasquez as one of my favorite pitchers on this slate. Streaming pitchers in Miami has proven to be profitable for most of the season so I won’t be stopping here. The price really just feels too cheap to ignore on Velasquez. Noesi has given up at least five earned runs in each of his three starts this season which is good for the Philly bats, but I don’t stack in Miami. They make for a better GPP stack than for cash.
MIA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I’m not getting any Miami here, I like Velasquez quite a bit.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins, JT Realmuto
4-star plays: Scott Kingery, Corey Dickerson
GPP Note: If this game was in Philadelphia I would have a lot more interest, but just a GPP stack as it is in Miami which is favorable to pitchers.
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Kansas City Royals (+157) @ Cleveland Indians (-170)
This game features a matchup of Jakob Junis and Zach Plesac, two pitchers who have proven some talent this season. I’ll have some interest in Plesac here as the Royals offense really does not scare me. Plesac has matched up against the Royals three times this season and is averaging 15.1 Draftkings points per game in those outings. I do like Junis as a pitcher, but the Indians offense is too good to want to target pitchers with.
KCR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Hunter Dozier, Jorge Soler, Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Some solid one-off options, but I will have some interest in Plesac as an SP2.
CLE 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Yasiel Puig, Carlos Santana, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: This Indians team is one that I like but just doesn’t crack my secondary stacks, I’m more likely to get to them as a mini-stack.
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Arizona Diamondbacks (+139) @ Milwaukee Brewers (-151)
This is another game where we have two cheaper pitching options. Jordan Lyles has pitched very well for the Brewers, but the Diamondbacks offense doesn’t get the respect it deserves, it is very good. I won’t get to a whole lot of Lyles here. As for Merrill Kelly, I will be hard fading him. The Brewers are an elite stack for me on this slate. Kelly has given up at least six earned runs in three of his last five games and the Brewers have a very scary offense especially at home against a righty.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte, Eduardo Escobar
4-star plays: David Peralta, Christian Walker, Jake Lamb
GPP Note: The Dbacks see a massive park upgrade here and get a Brewers team that has really struggled to keep the ball in the ballpark, I like them as a secondary stack.
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich, Keston Hiura, Mike Moustakas
4-star plays: Yasmani Grandal, Ryan Braun, Trent Grisham
GPP Note: The Brewers are a tier-one stack here and have an implied run total of 5.6 runs. I love them anytime they’re at home and with Moustakas starting to swing the bat better, this is a team I want to target right now.
Los Angeles Angels (+258) @ Houston Astros (-285)
I was very close to writing up Zack Greinke as one of my top pitchers on the slate. He draws a pretty nice matchup against an Angels team that has seen their strikeout rate increase over the course of the season. The Angels have just a 3.5 implied run total here so if you want to get to Greinke as a cheaper SP1 I would have zero problem with that. As for Jose Suarez, he is an easy fade and the Astros will be in that tier one of stacks with the Brewers. Suarez has given up at least four earned runs in four straight games and the Astros have an elite offense, the only issue is the prices on these guys.
LAA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Justin Upton
GPP Note: Just the power one-offs here I have a lot of respect for Greinke’s talent.
HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman, George Springer, Michael Brantley, Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Yuli Gurriel
GPP Note: Anyone that cracks this lineup will be in play for me, they are a top stack for me on this slate if you can find a way to get to their expensive salaries.
Detroit Tigers (+186) @ Minnesota Twins (-203)
The Tigers have really run into a death row of starting pitchers as of late, getting Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and now Jose Berrios. I wrote Berrios up as one of my favorite pitchers on the slate and I will continue to stream pitching against this Tigers offense. It looks like the Tigers will send Gregory Soto to the mound who has a 6+ era on the season, I like the Twins as a tier two stack here.
DET 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Berrios is probably my favorite pitcher on the slate, I’m not going with Tigers bats.
MIN 5-star plays: Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Miguel Sano
GPP Note: After looking deeper at the price tags on these guys the Twins will move into the tier one teams to stack. They all are relatively cheap and you don’t need to sacrifice pitching to get to them as you do with the Astros.
Texas Rangers (-141) @ Chicago White Sox ( +130)
Lance Lynn’s price has come down a hair here for a matchup with a weak White Sox offense. That said, his price is still too high for me, I would rather take the savings on Berrios or get up to Ryu or deGrom at a similar price. The Rangers offense seems to be in a good spot against Dylan Cease, who is a top prospect in the Sox organization. Cease has some potential in this league but is still working out some kinks here so I think you can get to the Rangers if you have the money.
TEX 5-star plays: Danny Santana, Hunter Pence
4-star plays: Shin-soo Choo, Willie Calhoun
GPP Note: The thing that keeps the Rangers out of my top stacks is the pricing on these guys. They are far too expensive for the talent on this team. That said, they get a plus matchup against Dylan Cease, they are more of a GPP stack for me.
CHW 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: You don’t need to be playing bats against Lance Lynn on a 13 game slate.
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Colorado Rockies (+192) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-209)
Jack Flaherty is another guy that I was close to writing up in my pitchers section. He has been pitching out of his mind lately, averaging 22.2 Draftkings points per game over his last ten outings. He gets a nice matchup here against a Rockies team that is not great away from home. The Rockies have an implied run total of just 3.5 runs here and if you want to get to Flaherty over guys like E-Rod, Greinke, and Ryu, I have no issues with it. As for Peter Lambert, no, give me the Cardinals.
COL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story
GPP Note: Just one-offs for me, I have a lot of respect for the talent of Jack Flaherty
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Marcell Ozuna, Paul DeJong
4-star plays: Kolten Wong, Matt Carpenter
GPP Note: Peter Lambert is not a good pitcher and the Cardinals have been playing good baseball, give me the Cardinals as a tier-two stack.
Boston Red Sox (-111) @ San Diego Padres (+102)
I was expecting the Red Sox to be bigger favorites here with Eduardo Rodriguez on the mound. However, Chris Paddack is a young talented pitcher as well. This is a game where I won’t get to many bats at all, and probably not and Paddack either simply because of the talent of this Red Sox offense. I will have some interest in Eduardo Rodriguez, however. The Padres offense is much different with Tatis and Franmil Reyes out of it, I don’t hate getting to Rodriguez in GPPs as a pivot from Berrios and Greinke.
BOS 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Mookie Betts, Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, JD Martinez
GPP Note: Just one-offs here, I don’t want to stack in this ballpark against a good pitcher in Chris Paddack
SDP 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Eduardo Rodriguez is in a pretty good spot here, I don’t want to target against him either.
Toronto Blue Jays (-115) @ Seattle Mariners (+105)
It looks like Justus Sheffield will get his debut with the Mariners tonight against a very young and talented Blue Jays team. I’ll use this game as a wait and see game on Sheffield, but keep an eye on him going forward if he stays with the team. Trent Thornton makes some sense as an SP2 here at just $6.2k against a bad Mariners lineup. If you don’t feel comfortable going with DeSclafani I don’t mind saving even more money and going down to Thornton here.
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette
4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero, Cavan Biggio
GPP Note: The Jays aren’t really a team that I want to stack, but I don’t mind building a mini-stack with them against a young pitcher in Sheffield.
SEA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Domingo Santana, Kyle Seager, Austin Nola
GPP Note: I’ll get to some Trent Thornton here especially if the Pirates roll out a bunch of lefties against DeSclafani, so just one-offs from the Mariners.
The starting lineups page is a useful tool to get a quick view of all of the teams, and I especially like the home run predictor to use for Monkey Knife Fight props!
New York Yankees (+135) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-147)
In what many believe could be a World Series preview we get a matchup of James Paxton against Hyun-Jin Ryu. Both of these pitchers have been outstanding this year, so we could be in for a good ole fashion pitchers duel here. That is exactly how I will treat this one. I won’t get to a ton of bats outside of one-off power like Bellinger and Judge/Sanchez, but this game should be a fun one to sit back and enjoy the real-life side of baseball.
NYY 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, DJ LeMahieu
GPP Note: Just one-offs here, Ryu has been dominant this season and the Yankees see a massive park downgrade.
LAD 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger
4-star plays: Max Muncy, Justin Turner, AJ Pollock
GPP Note: Similar story here, Paxton has been great, just one-offs for me.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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