Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are three pitchers that I find particularly interesting and are in good spots here on this slate.
- Gerrit Cole – Same story with Cole as it was with Verlander yesterday and they are the exact same price, on Draftkings at least. At $12k you get one of the best pitchers in the league against a AAA offense in the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers come into this game with an implied run total of just 2.6 here, which is one of the lowest I’ve seen all season. Right now the Astros are -482 favorites to win the game even after losing last night as -512 favorites. Gerrit Cole has an elite strikeout rate of 36.8% on the season to go along with the Tigers 25.7% k rate. Cole is your cash game SP1 and likely your SP1 for GPPs, hard not to absolutely love him here.
- Ryan Yarbrough – You likely won’t be able to get Yarbrough combined with Cole and still have any kind of decent offense. That said, Yarbrough is a great pivot off of Cole for GPPs. He draws a matchup with the Baltimore Orioles who have an implied run total of 3.9 runs at home. The Orioles strike out at a 25.6% rate against lefties on the season to go along with Yarbrough’s 21.7% k rate. Lastly, Yarbrough is in great form, going for at least 31.9 Draftkings points in each of his last two games.
- Aaron Civale – I’ll start by saying Civale is nowhere near a lock, but his price allows us to pair him with Cole and still get some nice bats. Not only is he cheap, but he has been very good since being called up. In four career starts he is averaging 20.1 Draftkings points per game and draws the New York Mets here. The Mets have an implied run of 4.7 here at home. Civale has a 23.7% strikeout rate on the season to go along with the Mets 25.6% k rate against righties. Civale is priced too cheap for this spot and allows us to get to Gerrit Cole as well.
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Full Count Breakdown:
San Francisco Giants (+157) @ Chicago Cubs (-171)
This is one of the two early games on the day featuring Jeff Samardzija and Kyle Hendricks. This is a pretty good pitching matchup and one that I really don’t want to target a whole lot of bats against. The wind looks like it will be blowing in at over 10 mph here which strengthens pitching even more. Be sure to check out our Coaches Notes/Player Picks on this game for a more in-depth look on player analysis since the pricing for a showdown slate is much different than the full slate.
-> COACHES NOTES/PLAYER PICKS <-
Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox
We don’t have a line on this game yet, but it will be Glenn Sparkman against Eduardo Rodgriguez. Rodriguez makes a lot of sense as a pitching option here, the Royals are not an offense to be afraid of especially with Mondesi still injured. The Red Sox are a phenomenal stack against Sparkman at home. I would be surprised if the Red Sox have an implied run total of fewer than six runs here. You’ll have to play this game on an early slate since it’s an early game, but stack up them Red Sox.
KCR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Hunter Dozier, Jorge Soler, Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Some solid one-off options against Rodriguez in a small park, but I won’t be stacking against him.
BOS 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Mitch Moreland, Christian Vazquez
GPP Note: Anybody that cracks the lineup will be in play for the Sox here for me, they are an elite offense against a pretty bad pitcher at home.
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Washington Nationals (-213) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (+195)
This will be Max Scherzer’s first game back since returning from the IL. I likely won’t get to him here as I would expect him to be limited in some sort of fashion and at his price I would rather just get to Gerrit Cole. Steven Brault is coming off of a great start against the Cubs, but I’m going to need him to prove he can do it consistently before I start attacking him. The Nationals are decent stack here and have been extremely hot, although I usually don’t stack in Pittsburgh.
WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto, Adam Eaton, Anthony Rendon
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Howie Kendrick, Victor Robles
GPP Note: If this wasn’t in Pittsburgh I would have a lot more interest in them, but the Nats are still a tier two stack for me considering how hot they have been.
PIT 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Josh Bell, Starlin Marte
GPP Note: I’m not stacking against Scherzer, but the Nats bullpen is brutal if he is limited in some form, so I don’t hate some one-offs.
Tampa Bay Rays (-213) @ Baltimore Orioles (+195)
I wrote up Ryan Yarbrough in my pitchers section and he is one of my favorites on the slate. As I mentioned, you likely won’t be able to jam him and Cole into the same lineup, but Yarbrough is a nice GPP pivot from Cole. If you’ve been reading my articles you know that I will only refer to the Orioles pitcher as Woj simply because his last name is incredibly difficult to spell, but that’s beside the point. Woj has some decent stuff, but I like the Rays in a small ballpark here. They have an implied run total of 5.8 runs and will be a tier one stack for me.
TBR 5-star plays: Austin Meadows, Tommy Pham, Ji-man Choi
4-star plays: Jesus Aguilar, Eric Sogard, Matt Duffy
GPP Note: The Rays are a top stack for me and they’re pretty unique given the salary differences up and down the lineup. There is a lot of value in this lineup to make a full-stack work.
BAL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Yarbrough is one of my favorite pitchers on the slate, I won’t be getting to the O’s in anything more than a hedge stack.
Cleveland Indians (+129) @ New York Mets (-140)
Another pitcher that was written up is Aaron Civale, who I like as a nice SP2 option against the Mets. The Mets are hot, but so is Civale, don’t be afraid to get there as your SP2. The Mets will start Syndergaard and I have a lot of respect for his stuff. This may be a game where I only get to pitching and some Mets power one-offs.
CLE 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Just one-offs, you don’t need to stack against Thor.
NYM 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Pete Alonso, Michael Conforto
GPP Note: Just power one-offs for me, I like Civale a good amount as an SP2
Miami Marlins (+254) @ Atlanta Braves (-280)
Mike Soroka is a pitcher that I think has a ton of talent and draws a great matchup here against one of the worst offenses in the league. The thing with Soroka is he’s kind of priced awkwardly and doesn’t strike out enough batters to warrant such a high price tag. I would rather take the $700 savings on Draftkings and take Yarbrough against the O’s instead of him. The Braves make for a nice secondary stack at home against Alcantara, their offense is scary good.
MIA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Although I likely won’t get to a lot of Soroka here, I won’t be getting to the Marlins either.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies
4-star plays: Josh Donaldson, Tyler Flowers
GPP Note: The Braves are a secondary stack for me, an implied run total of 5.8 is very viable but there are offenses that I have ranked higher.
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Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals
German Marquez against Miles Mikolas sounds like another game where I will be getting to pitching if anything at all. Marquez away from Coors is pretty close to an elite pitcher. He’s similar to Soroka however, where I would rather just find the money for Cole or go down to Yarbrough. That said, I won’t be getting any Cardinals bats against him. Mikolas is a guy I don’t like pitching, but I also won’t be stacking the Rockies because he can limit hard contact and get out of the big inning.
COL 5-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Raimel Tapia
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story
GPP Note: Just one-offs for me, unless you want to go crazy and make a mini-stack out of these high priced guys.
STL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: I’m not too crazy about getting hitters against German Marquez.
Texas Rangers (-114) @ Chicago White Sox ( +105)
I was close to writing up Ariel Jurado as my cheap pitcher on the slate, but the talent just isn’t there for him even though it’s a nice matchup. The Sox will run Detwiler out there which isn’t much better for them. Both teams have an implied run total of at least 5.4 runs. Both of these offenses are in play here.
TEX 5-star plays: Danny Santana, Hunter Pence
4-star plays: Shin-soo Choo, Willie Calhoun
GPP Note: The thing that keeps the Rangers out of my top stacks is the pricing on these guys. They are far too expensive for my liking.
CHW 5-star plays: Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu
4-star plays: Jon Jay (value), Eloy Jimenez
GPP Note: I think I like the Sox more than the Rangers here but just because of the prices on these guys. Much less expensive than the Rangers guys and in a similar spot.
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Detroit Tigers (+422) @ Houston Astros (-482)
As you may know by now, Gerrit Cole is far and away my favorite pitcher on the slate and it’s really not close. As far as the Astros offense goes, they are a tier-one stack with the Rays for me. They have an implied run total of 6 runs here and Jordan Zimmerman is not a guy that I’m afraid of. The Astros disappointed last night but I’m willing to go right back to the well here.
DET 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Send me a head-to-head if you plan on using the Tigers bats.
HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman, George Springer, Michael Brantley, Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Yuli Gurriel
GPP Note: The Astros are in the first tier with the Rays as of now, I love them here and hope they can recover from last night’s dud.
New York Yankees (-109) @ Oakland Athletics (+101)
This is another game that may be a stay away for me. Both Tanaka and Roark have good enough stuff to keep these offenses down in a big ballpark. If I had to pick an offense it would be the Yankees simply because they have the better lineup and are on the road guaranteeing ninth-inning at-bats.
NYY 5-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez
4-star plays: Gio Urshela, Gleyber Torres
GPP Note: I don’t love the Yankees but I also don’t hate them, if you fall on a mini-stack here don’t be afraid to just stick with it.
OAK 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Khris Davis
GPP Note: I don’t love the A’s but Tanaka has had trouble with home runs this season so some power one-offs are perfect if you happened to land on them.
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Toronto Blue Jays (+255) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-248)
The final game on the slate is a matchup of Kenta Maeda and Jake Waguespack. Maeda makes sense as an SP2 if you can find a cheap stack to pair with Gerrit Cole here. Waguespack is a hard no, as the Dodgers will be up there with the Astros and Rays as my favorite stacks on the slate. The Dodgers a tier-one stack, I won’t likely get to the Jays here as Maeda is very solid at home in his career.
TOR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio, Vlad Guerrero
GPP Note: Just one-offs here, I respect Maeda at home.
LAD 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, Justin Turner, Corey Seager
4-star plays: Joc Pederson, Will Smith, AJ Pollock
GPP Note: Pretty much anyone who cracks the lineup here will be in play for me. I love the Dodgers and if I had to rank my favorite stacks on the slate it would go Astros, Dodgers, Rays in that order.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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