Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are three pitchers that I find particularly interesting and are in good spots here on this slate.
- Walker Buehler – Top spot on the overall SP rankings against the Marlins. Much like Kershaw yesterday and May the day before, this is an absolute SMASH spot for this SP. Do not overthink it and just plug him into your early and all day contests.
- Alex Young – The days pitching options must be really rough if Young is my second listed name in this section. The Giants just do not scare me and he has had some solid outings since his debut. He faces the lineup with the lowest wOBA and third-lowest xwOBA on the main slate.
- Devin Smeltzer – Smeltzer is sitting with the third-best Carnage rating for the main slate and takes on a team that has absolutely been terrible against LHPs this season. Outside of facing CLE, Smeltzer has been excellent during his brief MLB career. SMELTZER SCRATCHED IN FAVOR OF MICHAEL PINEDA
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Full Count Breakdown:
Houston Astros (-120) vs Oakland Athletics
Aaron Sanchez vs Mike Fiers
The Astros lost the last 2 against the White Sox and it feels like they are going to use that as motivation going into OAK. Those were 2 games they should not have lost. I always stack against Fiers and while it works out less than it doesn’t, I still have to take shots against his high flyball % and aim to hit those games that he gives up multiple HRs. The A’s have a few bats that are swinging it pretty well so they are definitely in play, even against a pitcher who has been rolling since the Astros acquired him.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve
4-star plays: Carlos Correa, George Springer, Yuli Gurriel, Alex Bregman
GPP Note: Stack the Astros every which way.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Chapman, Robbie Grossman
4-star plays: Chad Pinder, Khris Davis
GPP Note: Sneaky stack going against a hot SP
Cleveland Indians vs New York Yankees (-160)
Adam Plutko vs Chad Green
This game is sitting with a total of 11 runs, which is the second-highest total on the day. Plutko has given up 17 HRs in 65.1 innings this season and now travels to a very small ballpark, especially to RF. Prior to this season, Plutko had given up 22 HRs in 80.1 innings at the MLB level. When you add those together you get 39 HRs allowed in his MLB career and those have come in just 145.2 innings (Roughly 1 every 3.2 innings). As of this morning, there has been no word of a probable long-reliever to follow Green. We need to monitor that as the day goes on.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Carlos Santana
4-star plays: Jason Kipnis, Yasiel Puig
GPP Note: Not a big fan of CLE overall today as it could be a bullpen game for the Yankees. When we get a true bullpen game the manager is able to pick and choose his BvP match-ups.
NYY 5-star plays: Gio Urshela, Didi Gregorius
4-star plays: Brett Gardner, DJ LeMahieu, Gary Sanchez
GPP Note: Just like the Astros, stack away. Top to bottom, backward forward, inside out.
St Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds (-160)
Michael Wacha vs Sonny Gray
This game is going to draw some interest in the Reds side of things. The offense is hitting the ball hard and out of the park while Sonny Gray is a strong home favorite. I definitely will be making some CIN stacks as a few guys have really strong BvP against Wacha. I am going to make a few stacks for GPPs of the Cardinals as Gray can be hit by RHBs and we know that STL has a few dangerous ones in the middle of their lineup.
STL 5-star plays: Tommy Edman, Dexter Fowler
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Marcell Ozuna
GPP Note: Sneaky stack against the reverse splits lean of Sonny Gray
CIN 5-star plays: Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez
4-star plays: Joey Votto, Aristides Aquino, Freddy Galvis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .283 over the L7
Chicago Cubs (-145) vs Philadelphia Phillies
Yu Darvish vs Drew Smyly
The Cubs have struggled all season against LHPs but they went out and acquired Castellanos to combat that. He has been rolling for the Cubs and makes an excellent one-off or min-stack option (with KB). I was shocked to see this game with a total at 9.5 runs with the Cubs being a decent favorite with them facing an LHP. The Phillies absolutely destroyed Hamels last night and that has to catch our eye when we decide on our stacks. Darvish has been really strong over the last month or two. I think that both offenses and both SPs are in play for GPPs with guys like Castellanos, Bryant, Harper as solid cash game options.
CHC 5-star plays: Kris Bryant, Nicholas Castellanos
4-star plays: Ian Happ
GPP Note: The 9 HRs the Cubs have hit over the last 6 games have been by 4 guys.
PHI 5-star plays: Cesar Hernandez, Bryce Harper
4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Corey Dickerson
GPP Note: Team OPS of just .736 over the last 6 games
Minnesota Twins (-145) vs Texas Rangers
SMELTZER SCRATCHED WITH THE RETURN OF MICHAEL PINEDA FROM THE IL!!!!
Devin Smeltzer vs Pedro Payano
Smeltzer is going to end up being one of my favorite GPP options at SP tonight. This kid’s funky delivery has been really strong for the Twins and the Rangers are both cold overall and have been cold against LHPs all season long. The one worry is that he has given up 5 HRs in his 32 MLB innings so far and the ball definitely flies in Texas. The Twins offense isn’t exactly on fire but they do keep hitting HRs so that is most likely what I will look for from them tonight.
MIN 5-star plays: Eddie Rosario, Miguel Sano
4-star plays: Max Kepler, CJ Cron
GPP Note: Payano has shown really strong reverse splits so far in his MLB career. The Twins RHBs are going to be sneaky! (I will still be using guys like Rosario and Kepler with their power upside)
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Hunter Pence, Danny Santana
GPP Note: Hitting .185 as a team over the last 6 games
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Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers (-104)
Sam Tuivailala/Tommy Milone vs Spencer Turnbull
This game has a total set at 9.5 runs and that really surprises me based on the offenses that are involved. I actually think that both Milone and Turnbull are in play on this slate with some one-offs from both offenses. The SEA LHBs stand out a bit as Turnbull can struggle against them and they are the hottest hitters on the team at the moment. I like the way a couple of the Tigers are swinging it, even if they do lack power in their lineup. I would prefer to use them as one-offs as I don’t think the stack has enough upside to warrant the lineup space in GPPs.
SEA 5-star plays: Daniel Vogelbach, Kyle Seager
4-star plays: Omar Narvaez, Mallex Smith
GPP Note: Team OPS of just .714 over the last 5 games
DET 5-star plays: Travis Demeritte, Miguel Cabrera
4-star plays: Jake Rogers, Niko Goodrum
GPP Note: Hitting .282 as a team over the last 6 games
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Los Angeles Dodgers (-260) vs Miami Marlins
Walker Buehler vs Caleb Smith
I really like this game for pitching as it sits with a total at just 7.5 runs and two SPs who can rack up strikeouts. I know the Dodgers have spanked the Marlins the last couple of days but now they face a tougher LHP, who should neutralize the LH power in the lineup. Buehler faced the Marlins earlier this season and struck out 11 in 7 shutout innings. I will not be openly looking to stack this game in any way but will use bats as one-offs, even a couple of Marlins who are swinging it well and have solid BvP on their side.
LAD 5-star plays: Justin Turner, Will Smith
4-star plays: Corey Seager, AJ Pollock
GPP Note: Team OPS of .989 over the last 5 games
MIA 5-star plays: Starlin Castro
4-star plays: Brian Anderson
GPP Note: Team average of .271 over the last 6 games
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New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves (-120)
Marcus Stroman vs Julio Teheran
This game has a total of 10 runs which shocks me as I think both SPs are in play and I really think Teheran is a near-cash safe option at this point in the day. There are a couple of guys with strong BvP on the Mets side and a couple of guys with really strong recent trends on the Braves side. I most likely will be using mini-stacks and one-offs from these offenses.
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso, JD Davis
4-star plays: Jeff McNeil
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .149 over the last 5 games
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr., Ender Inciarte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 over the last 6 games
San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks (-188)
Dereck Rodriguez vs Alex Young
This game is all about ARI for me as it sits with a total at 9 runs with them being a large home favorite. Young really intrigues me from a GPP standpoint and he may make his way into cash playable on DK as an SP2 option. He went 5 innings and struck out 5 while giving up just a solo HR in his start against SF earlier this season.
SF 5-star plays: Kevin Pillar
4-star plays: Evan Longoria, Mike Yastrzemski
GPP Note: The 3 guys above are 24 for 63 with 6 HRs over the last 6 games.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte, David Peralta
4-star plays: Jake Lamb, Christian Walker
GPP Note: Coming home after a series at Coors, ARI could start out a bit flat as most teams struggle the first game or two after a Coors Field series.
Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Angels (-170)
Reynaldo Lopez vs Andrew Heaney
This game has a total set at 9 runs and that shocks me with how cold these offenses have been over the last week. I really think that both SPs are in play here for GPP purposes. There are a few bats that “could” perform in this one but I lean towards the SPs being the best plays with some one-offs or mini-stacks picking up a couple of HRs. Ohtani is the main bat that I have interest in as he has been rolling at the plate (without much power recently though).
CHW 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu, Eloy Jimenez
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .105 over the last 6 games
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: Kole Calhoun
GPP Note: Team OPS of just .665 over the last 7 games
The starting lineups page is a useful tool to get a quick view of all of the teams, and I especially like the home run predictor to use for Monkey Knife Fight props!
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.