Here we are 3 weeks fresh into the season. It’s time to introduce a weekly feature, now that we have data. We will be going deep into the game. We will be challenging what we see on the screen and what we hear from the announcers. Before we take the pitch, we will be talking tactics. This is Chalk Talk.
This article will look different than the old “Holding the Midfield” article from last season. While it will have the same premise, this year brings added features, including some deep dive stats to further drive home some guys I’m looking at ahead of the impending gameweek. The important thing to remember when using this article is that these guys I will mention are not necessarily to be used in a vacuum. Your lineups should tell a story. It’s a tale of game scripts. Remember to build your core and to lock in your value. Also, your weekly research should begin by reading “DFS Army Starting XI” by @theDFSniper.
Chelsea v Sheffield United
I’m coming in hot with this one. My model loves Sheffield. Now, there is one man that could throw a wrench in things, N’golo Kante. There is a chance he returns. I will temper my expectations if he does; but, if not, I love the win odds differential between the books and my model. The books say Chelsea has over a 61% chance of winning but my model says Shef has ~48% chance.
There are 2 ways I want to take advantage of this for GPP and I don’t suggest both in the same lineup. The first is Callum Robinson. This is not my favorite play but their offense is built for using the central forward. He by far leads his team in touches in the penalty area but he also has been subbed in all 3 matches. He will be low-owned and Chelsea is third in the league in minutes per chance conceded at 1 every 9.9 minutes.
My favorite play, however, is Dean Henderson. Sheffield is on the road against a top-6 side. That means he should see a healthy dose of shots. Chelsea has scored on 7.3% of their shots and Sheffield suppresses shots in the box. They have conceded only 1 more attempt than city from inside the penalty are, good enough for joint second best. Chelsea ranks 3rd in shots taken in the box. What this all means is that Chelsea may have a chore trying to get in the box and may have to settle for a lower overall quality of shot, increasing the probability of saves.
Crystal Palace v Aston Villa
This match looks like one of those situations where the books are taking advantage of a good win by Palace. They went into Old Trafford and came away with a win last week. As such, they were given a 41.51% chance of winning compared to Villa’s 29.25%. Palace have created just 11 chances through 3 matches. This is just one way we underscore the lack of top talent on this squad. Neither of these teams has a great offense but Villa is just better offensively.
The model suggest Villa should be favored. The tough part is finding who to play. John McGinn is in play. He tackles and he shoots a lot and he has returned well so far with a goal and an assist. He is a safer play. I have interest in whoever is running to his right, though. It seems to be a turnstile and they are at risk of being subbed, but Van Aanholt is not out there for his defense. Whoever starts out wide right should have some opportunities. Overall, this a gpp game, however, and the safest play is again the keeper. Tom Heaton is a cash play for the reasons outlined in the first paragraph coupled with Palace’s accuracy (52.9% shots on target)..
West Ham v Norwich
I want all of this one! Yes, it feels weird to be all in on a match with city and liverpool on the slate and have neither of those teams be the one i’m all-in on. Let’s start with the total. I do not think the books are high enough here. We have 2 teams that are focused on offense. Both West Ham and Norwich are deadly accurate (55.2% and 54.5% shots on target, respectively). They both get the ball in close and don’t settle for long shots. West Ham has taken 21 of their 29 shots inside the penalty area. Norwich has taken 25 of their 33. Defensively, West Ham has conceded 41 of 53 inside the 18 and Norwich 33 of 50. Additionally, West Ham have conceded 13 big chances (most in the league) and Norwich has conceded 7 (joint 5th-most). I could go on, but you see where this all leads. I’ll get to the big boys in a second but you need pieces in all formats, especially cash. Don’t get cute.
Obviously, Teemu Pukki is a cash play. The offense runs through him. Todd Cantwell is all the rage right now and Emi Buendia is on set-pieces. West Ham gives up a considerable number of chances from the right side, too. All three are very playable, although Buendia works better with Pukki. The forgotten man in all of this is Marco Stiepermann, who is 2nd on the squad in shots (5). West Ham has conceded goals centrally.
On the other side, there is a debate raging as to who the best West Ham asset is. Some may think Lanzini for the savings and for how involved he is. Everyone will remember the brace Haller just put up. I think we start with the set-piece taker, Felipe Anderson. Norwich concedes plenty of chances from the left. He is a solid play in cash on either site, as Norwich also concedes the most crosses on the slate from the left side. I do think Sebastian Haller is a decent GPP play that I will get into later.
Come find me in slack, as my deep dive on this match is not done.
The Big Boys
I am going to loop both Man City and Liverpool together. There is no Liverpool on the DK slate. DK players, put the info in your back pocket for the showdown. Your first inclination with these two is to say their opponents are no match for them. That’s too easy. When I look at my model, I see that odds show that there is not a clean sheet to be had here. The best odds are for City but Brighton is not backing down this year. I say this mostly for the keepers. Ederson is the better play but you will pay for him and, if you are clean sheet chasing, you could disappointed. The uncertainty in the match result portrayed by the model is keeping me away from Adrian.
I want attacking pieces and that is likely where I will stay. The usual suspects are in play in Manchester. In Burnley, I want to see the lineup. If Alex Oxlaide-Chamberlain can get the start, I am very interested. Burnley will force you into longer shots and chances have been coming from the attacking right side. You need to be elite to break them down inside.
Shooters Shoot
So, we’ve talked about the teams but let’s look at specific players. Below is a table that shows the top 19 players on the slate who have logged at least 100 minutes played and an evaluation of the number of shots they take per 90 minutes played.
| Name | Team | Shots | Shots – Inside Box | shots/90 | SIB/90 | xG/90 | xA/90 |
| Barnes (Ashley) | BUR | 13 | 10 | 4.35 | 3.35 | 0.65 | 0.01 |
| Sterling (Raheem) | MCI | 12 | 12 | 4.01 | 4.01 | 1.22 | 0.12 |
| Pukki | NOR | 12 | 12 | 4.01 | 4.01 | 0.49 | 0.29 |
| Firmino | LIV | 12 | 9 | 4.01 | 3.01 | 0.48 | 0.05 |
| Mount | CHE | 12 | 5 | 4.01 | 1.67 | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| Salah | LIV | 10 | 8 | 3.35 | 2.68 | 0.79 | 0.22 |
| Maddison | LEI | 10 | 4 | 3.35 | 1.34 | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| Bernardo Silva | MCI | 9 | 7 | 3.01 | 2.34 | 0.24 | 0.13 |
| Aguero | MCI | 8 | 6 | 2.68 | 2.01 | 0.81 | 0.11 |
| McGinn | AVL | 8 | 2 | 2.68 | 0.67 | 0.19 | 0.08 |
| Deulofeu | WAT | 8 | 6 | 2.68 | 2.01 | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| De Bruyne | MCI | 8 | 5 | 2.68 | 1.67 | 0.13 | 0.34 |
| Maupay | BHA | 7 | 7 | 2.34 | 2.34 | 0.40 | 0.01 |
| El Ghazi | AVL | 7 | 3 | 2.34 | 1.00 | 0.35 | 0.12 |
| Joelinton | NEW | 7 | 6 | 2.34 | 2.01 | 0.33 | 0.02 |
| Abraham | CHE | 7 | 5 | 2.34 | 1.67 | 0.16 | 0.01 |
| Wilson (Harry) | BOU | 7 | 4 | 2.34 | 1.34 | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| Barkley | CHE | 7 | 2 | 2.34 | 0.67 | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| Tielemans | LEI | 7 | 2 | 2.34 | 0.67 | 0.07 | 0.12 |
Now, let’s take a look at the top 19 in xG.
| Name | Team | Shots | Shots – Inside Box | shots/90 | SIB/90 | xG/90 | xA/90 |
| Sterling (Raheem) | MCI | 12 | 12 | 4.01 | 4.01 | 1.22 | 0.12 |
| Aguero | MCI | 8 | 6 | 2.68 | 2.01 | 0.81 | 0.11 |
| Salah | LIV | 10 | 8 | 3.35 | 2.68 | 0.79 | 0.22 |
| Haller | WHU | 5 | 5 | 1.67 | 1.67 | 0.70 | 0.02 |
| Barnes (Ashley) | BUR | 13 | 10 | 4.35 | 3.35 | 0.65 | 0.01 |
| Pukki | NOR | 12 | 12 | 4.01 | 4.01 | 0.49 | 0.29 |
| Firmino | LIV | 12 | 9 | 4.01 | 3.01 | 0.48 | 0.05 |
| Cantwell | NOR | 2 | 2 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.41 | 0.06 |
| Maupay | BHA | 7 | 7 | 2.34 | 2.34 | 0.40 | 0.01 |
| Wilson (Callum) | BOU | 3 | 3 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.39 | 0.03 |
| El Ghazi | AVL | 7 | 3 | 2.34 | 1.00 | 0.35 | 0.12 |
| McGoldrick | SHU | 4 | 2 | 1.34 | 0.67 | 0.35 | 0.01 |
| Joelinton | NEW | 7 | 6 | 2.34 | 2.01 | 0.33 | 0.02 |
| Hernández (Javier) | WHU | 3 | 2 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 0.33 | 0.01 |
| Wood | BUR | 4 | 4 | 1.34 | 1.34 | 0.32 | 0.02 |
| King (Joshua) | BOU | 4 | 2 | 1.34 | 0.67 | 0.31 | 0.03 |
| Lundstram | SHU | 5 | 2 | 1.67 | 0.67 | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| Hughes | WAT | 3 | 2 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 0.29 | 0.07 |
| Zaha | CRY | 4 | 4 | 1.34 | 1.34 | 0.27 | 0.06 |
And, for fun, let’s take a peak at the top players in terms of shots in the box/90.
| Name | Team | Shots | Shots – Inside Box | shots/90 | SIB/90 | xG/90 | xA/90 |
| Sterling (Raheem) | MCI | 12 | 12 | 4.01 | 4.01 | 1.22 | 0.12 |
| Pukki | NOR | 12 | 12 | 4.01 | 4.01 | 0.49 | 0.29 |
| Barnes (Ashley) | BUR | 13 | 10 | 4.35 | 3.35 | 0.65 | 0.01 |
| Firmino | LIV | 12 | 9 | 4.01 | 3.01 | 0.48 | 0.05 |
| Salah | LIV | 10 | 8 | 3.35 | 2.68 | 0.79 | 0.22 |
| Maupay | BHA | 7 | 7 | 2.34 | 2.34 | 0.40 | 0.01 |
| Bernardo Silva | MCI | 9 | 7 | 3.01 | 2.34 | 0.24 | 0.13 |
| Aguero | MCI | 8 | 6 | 2.68 | 2.01 | 0.81 | 0.11 |
| Joelinton | NEW | 7 | 6 | 2.34 | 2.01 | 0.33 | 0.02 |
| Deulofeu | WAT | 8 | 6 | 2.68 | 2.01 | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| Gray (Andre) | WAT | 6 | 6 | 2.01 | 2.01 | 0.13 | 0.22 |
| Haller | WHU | 5 | 5 | 1.67 | 1.67 | 0.70 | 0.02 |
| Trezeguet | AVL | 5 | 5 | 1.67 | 1.67 | 0.26 | 0.04 |
| Mount | CHE | 12 | 5 | 4.01 | 1.67 | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| Wesley | AVL | 5 | 5 | 1.67 | 1.67 | 0.22 | 0.08 |
| Aké | BOU | 5 | 5 | 1.67 | 1.67 | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| Abraham | CHE | 7 | 5 | 2.34 | 1.67 | 0.16 | 0.01 |
| De Bruyne | MCI | 8 | 5 | 2.68 | 1.67 | 0.13 | 0.34 |
| Wood | BUR | 4 | 4 | 1.34 | 1.34 | 0.32 | 0.02 |
Who do these lists have in common?
- Ashley Barnes
- Raheem Sterling
- Sergio Aguero
- Teemu Pukki
- Mo Salah
- Roberto Firmino
- Maupay
Those 7 players appear on all 3 lists. Who would have thought Maupay would find his way up there…? Tough matchup and reserved for only the largest of GPP.
Others make it twice and some only once. I chose these stats because they provide you a tangible view on just how effective a player has been in the final third, outside of the results.
XG
The first chart I would look at is the 2nd one highlighting the xG numbers. For those who are unaware, xG stands for Expected Goals. There is an equation that looks at the quality of shot taken and turns it into a percent chance to score off of it. Its important to note that xG does not factor in goals scored. The result is the shot, so when you see a guy who has a high xG and he scored a brace last match, the brace meant nothing of the quality.
When I look at that chart, Haller jumps off the page to me. He has 5 shots in the box and an xG/90 of .7. He has started just 2 matches and is proving himself dangerous. That .7, by the way, is .21 higher than the other striker in that match. I dont mean to say he is necessarily the better option all by this one metric, but it is interesting to note that he is cheaper, capable (.51 xG/90 through 11 appearances and 771 mins in the Bundesliga last season), and should come in at lower ownership than pukki. This is something to think about.
Pregame Awaits
Each week I will be highlighting some players and highlighting certain stats that I find quite interesting. I hope you found this as informative as I have.
I am TreyJ989 in the coaching channels and on Twitter. Feel free to ask me questions. Let’s enjoy the ride.