BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC on ESPN+ 15 Location – Shenzhen, China
This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in China. DraftKings has some awesome contests for us to win money on this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $100k being paid out. I will probably stick to the top GPPs this week and throw a handful of entries at that $100k prize. I do plan on going lighter than usual on this card though, so I might make 10 or less lineups this week. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double-ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights and hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Lara Procopio $8,400 vs Karol Rosa $7,800
Lara Procopio
Age: 23
Height: 5’4
Weight: 135
Reach: N/A
Gym: Nova União
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 25(SW)
Last Fought: 1 Year
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W6
Betting Odds: -110
Lara Procopio is an undefeated fighter fighting out of Nova União. She is 23 years old & 6-0. Procopio is a grappler with limited striking skills. She doesn’t spend much time at range & is usually looking to close the distance & grab ahold of her opponent immediately. She is stiff on the feet. She will throw jabs, leg kicks & the occasional front or round kick to the body. She has decent hooks in close range, but her striking is all to get it to the ground. Procopio isn’t a knockout threat. She has one career knockout.
Procopio is a strong grappler. She looks strong for the division & has good wrestling. She will time & drive through nicely timed inside trips. She gets most of her takedowns in the clinch. She will use her striking to get inside, dig an underhook, & drive her opponent to the mat or the cage. She does a good job of controlling, landing short shots & threatening takedowns against the cage. She has good double legs against the cage. In top position, Lara is pretty good. She has good control. She will hang around in opponent’s guards & land short shots to the body and head. She isn’t very dangerous to me in top position. She doesn’t try to pass the guard much. I have seen her get swept before & she looks only ok off her back. She will hang out on her back too long but will attack with triangles & armbars. She will use submissions to create scrambles & stand back up or take top position. She has 2 submissions both via armbar. Procopio is going to need to get inside & get it to the ground. She is going to be the lesser striker. She needs to grind out Karol for three rounds or submit her.
Karol Rosa
Age: 24
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: N/A
Gym: Paraná Vale Tudo
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 16
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -110
Karol Rosa will be making her UFC debut. She is young at 24 years old but experienced at 11-3. She trains with the champ Jessica Andrade and has gotten good training this camp. Rosa looks like a meat & potatoes striker. She likes to come forward, flat footed, & work behind jabs & leg kicks. She has a pretty good, counter right hook. She fights at a slow pace on the feet & is a little stiff & methodical. When she can back opponents towards the cage, she will wing wild overhands to close the distance. She will throw occasional front kicks & knees to the body. She is hittable herself & predictable in her striking. In her last fight, she did a better job of mixing it up & her striking looked better than ever. She still had the same meat & potatoes game, but her jabs & leg kicks looked better. She finished her opponent in the third round. Rosa has 4 KO/TKO’s & has never been finished by strikes.
Karol Rosa looks like an ok grappler. She likes to mix it up & usually looks for single legs or clinch takedowns against the cage. She got a nice double leg in her last match. She was able to take mount & finish the fight. She has two submission finishes. Her wrestling isn’t the best & she can get reversed going for takedowns. She lets opponents use her momentum against her to throw her or just off balance her & get her down. She is good at bellying down, grabbing a leg & taking top position. When she fought Larissa Pacheco, Pacheco was able to control her on top & land good ground & pound. She was able to get a couple takedowns of her own but was swept & threatened with a kimura. She was eventually caught in a standing guillotine going for a double leg. Rosa is very tough & good at eventually scrambling to top position. She has been submitted in two fights. Rosa is 5-1 in decisions, but there has been a finish in her last 7 fights. Rosa is the better striker. She needs to stuff the takedowns, work her jab & leg kicks, and beat up Procopio on the feet.
This is not a fight I am excited to wake up at 3am ET for. Procopio has the same strategy in every fight and that is to close the distance and fight against the cage or on the mat. She is good at that style though. Rosa is going to be the better striker at range though and she trains with the headliner, Jessica Andrade. I think she is the more dangerous fighter of the two but Procopio has a tough style if she can make it work. I don’t see that style taking her far in the UFC but if Rosa isn’t UFC level then I think it works here for at least 2 of the 3 rounds. No confidence in that pick though.
On DraftKings, the -260 FGTD line makes me not care a lot for this fight. I also don’t trust either to get the win, so I wouldn’t want to play them with a small number of lineups. I think both sides are playable if you are MMEing though and it is the first fight of the night which I always like. I think Procopio is my preferred play because she is the grappler and will look for takedowns. But she is more expensive, and this is an even betting line, so I also like the value on Rosa. I would probably play them both 1-2 times if I was making 10 lineups. I wouldn’t want to trust either in cash.
Winner – Lara Procopio via Unanimous Decision
Danaa Batgerel $8,500 vs Heili Alateng $7,700
Danaa Batgerel
Age: 30
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: N/A
Gym: One Team Fighting Center
From: Mongolia
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year 2 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +100
The first fight of the night pits two newcomers from Asia. Both fighters are from Mongolia, but I would assume Alateng would be the fan favorite being from Inner Mongolia, which is part of China. Batgerel is a 6-1 fighter. He went pro in 2011 but has been inactive throughout his career. He hasn’t fought since June of 2018, and just has 3 fights in the last 4 years. 2018 was the only year of his career he fought more than one time. Danaa is a decent boxer. He likes to feint his way into range & counter. He has a very nice counter left hook. He doesn’t throw a lot of jabs, but he will throw some jab, overhand right or right hook combinations. His overhand right can be thrown wide & wild at times. He has a good rear uppercut. When he gets fighters defensive, he will go first with the straight-right in combination. He is accurate with his punches when he is calm & picking his shots. He does have a tendency to get wild & brawl occasionally. He doesn’t throw many kicks, but he will throw the occasional round kick to legs, body & head. His head kick does look surprisingly fluid for how little he throws it. When I was watching fights of Danaa’s when he was younger, he looks like he may be past his prime. He used to have much better movement & looked much faster. He would throw more volume & took more risks. His style now looks more methodical, slower and risk averse. He is lower volume & prefers to counter. He has power & when he hurts opponents he’s a finisher. He keeps good forward pressure on opponents & usually owns the center of the cage. He is hittable himself & holds his hands low. He can get stunned with well-timed counters, and I have seen him hurt & dropped. He looks fairly durable & recovers well, never being finished. He has finished his last 2 wins & 3 overall via KO/TKO. He has never been finished.
Danaa looks physical for the division. He will dig strong, double underhooks in the clinch & control opponents against the cage. He doesn’t have much offense from the position though. He isn’t an offensive wrestler, but he has good takedown defense. He will sprawl heavy & will snap opponents down & take top position. In top position, he likes to land ground & pound from inside opponent’s guards. He isn’t really dangerous in top position. He has one rear naked choke but is not really a submission threat. Batgerel tends to gas out in the third round also and can take a lot of damage.
Heili Alateng
Age: 27
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: N/A
Gym: Team Alateng
From: China
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year 3 Months
Last Five: 3-1-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -120
Alateng started his career 4-6 but is unbeaten in 9 of his last 10 fights. Alateng hasn’t fought in over a year. Alateng is an okay striker. He is a counter striker with good forward pressure. He has a nice, straight-right hand. He will counter with it & sit opponents down. He has a good left hook. He will leap into it & can close the distance quickly. I feel the strike could potentially land & hurt Danaa in this fight. When he hurts opponents, he will swarm with hook flurries & take fighters out. He does tend to allow opponents to control the center & walk him down. He will just try to walk opponents into his shots but can get caught himself. He has been knocked out 3 times in his career. He has 4 knock outs himself. Alateng has no problem brawling & trusts his power.
Alateng has a wrestling base but seems to like to bang it out on the feet more nowadays. He has a short, compact frame & looks like he’d have pretty explosive wrestling shots. He has good double legs. He seems to only like to wrestle when he’s hurt now or getting dominated on the feet. I haven’t seen a ton of him in top position, but he likes to take the back & has good G&P. He has two rear naked chokes & a standing guillotine. Alateng is the younger fighter who has been much more active in their careers. I see him as being the fighter more in their prime & definitely faster. I expect this fight to play out on the feet.
I don’t have a good read on this fight at all. I do think it’s as close as the line says though and I won’t be risking my money on either side to be honest. I think this will be a back and forth fight, but I think we have seen the best Batgerel has to offer and I think Alateng is still an improving fighter. I think he can mix in his striking and takedowns in this fight and since he is the slight underdog, I would rather lean with him to get his hand raised.
On DraftKings, I like the discount we are getting with Alateng. He is the betting favorite now and that value makes him one of my favorite underdog plays on the card. I think he is playable in all formats and I think the only reason he will have ownership is because of the value. I don’t care much for Danaa now, so with a limited number of lineups, I will probably fade him. If you are MMEing then I think this is a decent fight to target for GPPs. I don’t expect Danna to be owned at all, so I like him as an ownership play and he could help get a solo $25k if he can go out there and score 100 in a win. With 3-5 lineups I would avoid him though and just target the value in this fight.
Winner – Heili Alateng via Split Decision
Damir Ismagulov $9,000 vs Thiago Moises $7,200
Damir Ismagulov
Age: 28
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 70”
Gym: New Stream
From: Russia
UFC Record: 2-0
Fight Matrix: 59
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W13
Betting Odds: -175
Damir Ismagulov is very good & extremely well-rounded. He is a dynamic striker, with a strong grappling game. He has a nice jab and a very good straight-right hand. He will jab to the body as well. He has nasty low kicks. He will throw a jab to the body to a straight-right to the head combination. He does a good job of faking the body jab & throwing the straight-right first & catching opponents. He has excellent fakes & feints to create openings for other shots & takedowns. He does a great job of keeping a high guard, and his defense on point. He does a good job of seeing shots coming, leaning out of the way & staying in range to counter. He has nasty front and round kicks to the body and head. He throws nice spinning techniques, he has a nice spinning backfist and spinning back kick to the body. He throws some crazy strikes, such as kicks off the cage. He also showed some personality taunting & talking to Gorgees. Ismagulov has 9 KO/TKO’s in his career & has never been finished by strikes.
Ismagulov is a sick wrestler & very strong on top. He has nasty single legs & very quick double leg entries. He will shoot a double, push opponents to the cage & get a body lock takedown. He does a great job of controlling opponents against the cage & racking up control time. On top, he does a great job of standing up in opponent’s guards & landing big, accurate ground & pound punches. He is very heavy on top & when he gets top, half guard & side mount, he will try to trap an arm & throw punches & elbows. He does a great job of taking the back & will flatten opponents out and land hard G&P. He will unload with thudding power & try to finish the fight when he gets into dominant position. He is very hard to takedown & does a great job of staying out of submissions. Ismagulov isn’t a big submission threat with just one in his career & has never been submitted. Ismagulov has fantastic cardio & has fought in multiple 5 round title fights. Ismagulov should look to strike in this fight, keep it standing & back Moises up to the cage.
Thiago Moises
Age: 24
Height: 5’9
Weight: 155
Reach: 70.5”
Gym: ATT
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 91
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +155
Moises has a good jab, and a very nice straight-right hand. He also has a nice right hook, and he is powerful. He is a slow starter, but he picks up as the fight goes on. He has nasty kicks, big leg, body and round kicks. He is athletic and will throw spinning heel kicks to the body and head, as well as jumping, round house kicks. He is quick with the techniques and stays defensively sound while and after throwing them. He will throw nice question mark kicks to the head, and he had a pretty nasty head kick in his last win to set up the finish. He doesn’t know how to strike moving backwards. He has to have his feet planted to strike & when opponents pressure him, the only time he throws shots are when his back is against the cage & he’s flat footed. Fighters are able to go first & land combinations along the cage on him. He will try to sit down & land hard, counter hooks or straights to back his opponents up & then can go forward with combinations of his own. He will just circle the octagon at times & be very passive, which is kind of odd. He definitely has big power and he can drop fighters with his right hook. He only has 3 KO/TKO’s, but he has dropped and submitted fighters. He has a good chin and never been finished.
Thiago Moises is a submission specialist and a black belt in BJJ. He is a strong fighter and he is good in the clinch with knees and elbows. He has good body lock takedowns and he will shoot doubles against the cage. He isn’t a super active seeker of the takedown and seems to prefer to strike. In his last fight though, he landed several well timed double legs & used it to deal with forward pressure better. When he does get on top, he is aggressive and prefers submissions over position. His top control isn’t the greatest. Moises does have 5 career submissions. I think Moises will need a finish to get the victory.
I think Damir is the better striker in this matchup and I think he has the wrestling to keep this fight standing where he will have the edge. I do think Moises is live if he can land takedowns, but I think this is a tough matchup for him at this point in his career and I don’t think he will be able to hold Damir down if he can land takedowns. Damir does have finishing power but I think he point fights his way to a unanimous decision here.
My preferred play here is going to be Moises because of prices. Damir is priced up to where we are relying on a KO from him to pay off that price tag. He doesn’t wrestle or strike at a high enough volume to pay off that price in a decision and I think Moises is tough enough to last 3 rounds. I think Moises is live if he can get it to the ground as well so at his price tag I think any win would be fine. I don’t love him as a play, but he is in play and I think he is in play in all formats. Damir is going to be priced out of my lineups but if I was making my usual 20 or more then he would make the player pool. With 10 or less, I don’t see him making the cut.
Winner – Damir Ismagulov via Unanimous Decision
Khadis Ibragimov $9,300 vs Da Un Jung $6,900
Khadis Ibragimov
Age: 24
Height: 6’3
Weight: 205
Reach: N/A
Gym: Sambo-Piter
From: Russia
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 45
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W8
Betting Odds: -250
Khadis Ibragimov is taking this fight on short notice but is an 8-0 prospect out of Russia. Ibragimov is a dangerous submission grappler. Ibragimov has defeated some good competition, but this will be his first fight out of Russia or Kazakhstan. His striking is a little wild. He has power, but really just throws jabs & looping right hands to close the distance. He will throw one-twos. He also has a good chin & is willing to bang. He is still a good athlete though & the risk of the takedown makes opponents hesitant to let go. He will eventually get inside & get it where he wants it. His striking is not good though. He has two KO/TKO’s on the ground.
Ibragimov is an excellent grappler. He has nice, single leg takedowns. He will use the single to push opponents to the cage & transition to doubles, along with circling to the back. He has very nice throws. When he circles to the back, along with looking for throws, he will look to get his arms around the neck. He will lock in rear naked chokes with no hooks & finish them like bulldog chokes. In top position, he is a beast also. He likes to get side control & finished his last opponent in the crucifix position. He likes to move to the mount, take the back & get rear naked chokes. He has 2 rear naked chokes & one bulldog choke. He has finished his last 5 wins. Ibragimov is going to need to get inside & get top position. If he can get this to the mat, I think he probably can finish in top position.
Da Un Jung
Age: 25
Height: 6’4
Weight: 205
Reach: N/A
Gym: Korean Top Team
From: South Korea
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 132
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W10
Betting Odds: +210
Da Ung Jung will be the crowd favorite fighting out of South Korea. Jung looks to be improving a lot from fight to fight. Jung has pretty good distance control. He is long & will use his lead hand to gauge distance. He has a nice jab, & good straight-right hand. He pull counters with the right hand also. He will throw some hooks in close range but isn’t as good on the inside. He holds his hands low & is hittable. He has good inside leg kicks & occasional head kicks. He doesn’t throw a lot of diversity on the feet. He will throw some flying knees. He is heavy on his lead leg & doesn’t check kicks. I have seen him get rocked by punches also, but he has a strong chin. Jung has 9 KO/TKO’s & has never been knocked out.
Jung isn’t an offensive grappler. He has good takedown defense. He will sprawl well on double legs. When he does get taken down, he is good at scrambling right back to his feet. He is good at reversing the takedowns & taking top position himself. On top, he is strong. He has good top control & has good passing ability. He will get the crucifix position & rain down elbows. He finished a recent opponent in that position. He isn’t a big submission threat with just one career submission. He finishes on the mat mostly by ground & pound. Jung was submitted one time in his 3rd pro fight. I haven’t seen a ton of him off his back. In this fight Jung has to stick & move, be technical & avoid grappling. He has a fluidity & technique advantage on the feet. If he uses his feints to draw out movements from Ibragimov, he could start to read them & time him with something.
This looks like a KO or bust fight for Da Un Jung. Ibragimov looks to be pretty good everywhere and he should be the more powerful guy who dictates where this fight takes place. I think he is the better striker and probably gets a KO if this fight stays standing. Striking is where he would be at more danger though, so it would be smart of him to look for takedowns here and finish with a sub or ground and pound. He is taking this fight on short notice, so I think he looks to end it as early as possible.
Ibragimov is my preferred play here and I think he has one of the higher ceilings on the card. I don’t like how short of notice he is taking this fight on though so there is a lot of risk that comes with this pick, but if he wins, I think he pays off his price tag. I prefer him more for GPPs, but I think we can play him in cash if needed as well. I don’t have any interest in Jung though and again I’d need my 20 or more lineups to really consider him.
Winner – Khadis Ibragimov via 1st round (T)KO
Andre Soukhamthath $8,600 vs Su Mudaerji $7,600
Andre Soukhamthath
Age: 30
Height: 5’8
Weight: 135
Reach: 70”
Gym: Combat Club
From: Rhode Island
UFC Record: 2-4
Fight Matrix: 71
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -150
Andre Soukhamthath is a talented fighter. He is a great athlete, with a good skill set, and one punch knockout power. Soukhamthath is a pretty slick striker. He has a very nice jab, he throws it hard and stiff. He dropped Alejandro Perez with his jab three times in their fight. He has a nice, check left hook, and left hook to the body. He will throw a jab, left hook to the body. He likes to try to get fighters to close the distance and pull counter with his straight-right hand. He has good power in his shots and can finish a fight with one shot. He has a very nice step in uppercut, and when he walks forward and let’s his shots go, he is dangerous. He has a nasty flying knee which he has knocked fighters out with previously in his career. He can get too involved in just trying to counter punch, and coast in fights he thinks he’s winning, making them much closer than they should be. He has a great chin, showing that against O’Malley in which he took some massive shots. He struggled with finding his range in that fight & dealing with a long fighter. He will have to solve that puzzle here against Mudaerji. He has never been finished in his career. He has 8 KO/TKO’s in his career.
Soukhamthath will try to mix it up & grapple. His IQ is extremely poor in deciding when to strike & to grapple. This was most notable in his fight with Sean O’Malley. O’Malley broke his foot after throwing a kick & could no longer walk. He was hopping around the cage on one foot, and Soukhamthath was shooting takedowns. He could have just moved away, and the fight likely would have been over. In his last match with Jonathan Martinez, he was dominating the fight on the feet, but continuously would grapple when he had his opponent hurt. Soukhamthath did show some nasty clinch work in his last match. He was able to land nasty uppercuts, elbows & knees in the single collar clinch. He will shoot takedowns when his opponents are against the cage. He will also mix in nasty uppercuts & body shots in combination when fighters are against the cage. He isn’t great on top & doesn’t have good top control. Soukhamthath will close the distance and look for body locks. He drives his opponents against the cage and will look for trips. He will drop levels and try to get single legs. He likes to move into side control and land short ground & pound, but he isn’t devastating on top. He will look for guillotines, and chokes. His takedown defense is not great. When Martinez was able to take him down in his last match, he landed some big G&P. He can be controlled against the cage as well. He has 3 career submissions. His record in decisions over his career has been terrible. He is 2-6 in decisions. He tends to not do a great job of pacing himself & can gas himself out going to hard in round one. He does start quickly & is dangerous.
Su Mudaerji
Age: 23
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 72”
Gym: Enbo Gedou
From: China
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +130
Su Mudaerji looks like another very intriguing prospect from China. He is extremely athletic with dynamic striking. He also has a great frame for 125 or 135 being very tall and long. He does a good job of using his reach, and making fighters fight at his range. He has great forward pressure and in and out movement. He has a long karate stance and will keep range with nasty sidekicks particularly to the body, but to the head as well. He has a laser for a straight-left hand and is an extremely accurate striker. He has a hands down style and it makes it very hard to see when his punches are coming. He has nice round kicks and spinning kicks to the head. He does a great job of landing a jab, straight-left hand, and pulling fighters into his power. He does a great job of slipping punches and sliding just out of range of opponent’s strikes. He will throw spinning back kicks to the body and a leg kick to spinning back kick to the head combination. He is a finisher, and when he hurts fighters, he is extremely accurate with finishing shots. He can get wild at times with jumping attacks such as flying knees and end up on his back where he is weak. He has 8 career knockouts & is dangerous.
Su Mudaerji seems to be improving on his wrestling defense and is not interested in going for takedowns himself. He shows good takedown defense in space, sprawling on double legs, and limp legging out of single legs. Against the cage his takedown defense needs work. He puts his feet close together, making it easy for opponents to get double legs. He has been submitted in all four of his losses. In his last fight though, he was showing some scrambling ability & almost got the crucifix position & attacked the legs & then with an armbar. I actually feel Su is decent at creating scrambles & sweeps. He is long & showed some decent guard retention & triangle setups in his last fight. I actually think he can maybe get a triangle in this fight. Su only has one career submission.
I like Soukhamthath here because Mudaerji has no ground game. Mudaerji is slick on the feet and he will be the home country fighter. If he can keep this standing the whole fight, then he has a real chance of pulling off the upset. However, if Soukhamthath looks to get this fight to the ground, he should be able to and he should have a decent edge there as well. We have seen Soukhamthath make poor decisions in fights before, but he should be looking for takedowns early and often here and I think he finds a submission at some point.
On DraftKings, Souk is my preferred play. He should be looking to grapple, and I like his chances at finishing on the ground. I think if he fights smart then he pays off this salary in a win. Trusting him to be smart is the big worry though so I wouldn’t want to go all in on him, but I like him in all formats. He could even be a core play for me this week, but I haven’t made lineups yet. I like Mudaerji as well as a dog because he could get a KO in any round and Souk might be dumb enough to stand with him and give him the fight he wants. I prefer him for GPP only though.
Winner – Andre Soukhamthath
Anthony Hernandez $8,800 vs Jun Yong Park $7,400
Anthony Hernandez
Age: 25
Height: 6’0
Weight: 185
Reach: 75”
Gym: MMA Gold Fight Team
From: California
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 148
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 3-1-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -150
Anthony Hernandez will be looking to bounce back here after being finished in his UFC debut. He traveled to Brazil & was submitted by Maluko Perez. Hernandez is a developing striker but has power in his hands & is not bad when opponents allow him to come forward. He is a little flat footed, but he keeps a wide stance & does a good job of leaning back to avoid shots. He will throw a jab, right hand, and his straight-right hand comes fast with good power. He will close the distance with a right hook, uppercut, left hook combination. He will throw front kicks to the body & head, along with good round kicks to the head. He struggles with pressure & will just back up the cage and allow opponents to dictate where the fight goes. He has ok takedown defense, but he allows opponents in on his legs very easily and needs to improve on either keeping the center or lateral footwork. He will throw nice uppercuts in short range & he will swarm when he hurts opponents. He had a vicious KO on the DWCS. He has 2 KO/TKO’s and has never been finished being undefeated at 7-0. He is very strong mentally & I feel you have to knock him out to stop him from trying to win the fight.
Hernandez is a strong grappler & very dangerous with submissions. He is long for the division & great at locking up chokes in the clinch. He has great standing guillotines & has finished more than one. He will shoot single & double legs, but his most effective takedown is the body lock clinch. He has good trips & on top he is good at doing damage with elbows & going for submissions. He is very calm on top & good at floating and keeping top position. He was caught in several leg locks against Brendan Allen & had an awesome scramble filled fight with him. He is excellent at finding the back & he can do it from many positions. He can be taken down himself and has mediocre takedown defense. I feel he doesn’t put big emphasis on it because he doesn’t mind being on his back. He is very good at using a deep half guard & finding the back or getting to top position and has very good sweeps overall. He has great cardio & you can see as the fight continues he starts to zap the energy of opponents & the scrambles become much less a factor in the fight with Hernandez keeping more dominant position. Hernandez has 4 submissions, which are all guillotine chokes. He has to have a grappling heavy game plan in this fight, work takedowns & look to control Park on the ground or in the clinch. I don’t think he has the ability to strike with Park.
Jun Yong Park
Age: 28
Height: 6’0
Weight: 185
Reach: N/A
Gym: Korean Top Team
From: South Korea
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 111
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W7
Betting Odds: +130
Jun Yong Park is making his UFC debut fighting out of South Korea. He has won 7 consecutive fights. Park looks like a good fighter. He has good striking, & nasty chokes. Park is a good striker. He has good movement, distance control & fast hands. He has nice one-twos, & jab, right hooks or jab, overhand rights. He likes to throw a one-two to a left hook combination, that’s money. He has power in his hands & hurts opponents with punches. He has nice counter hooks & uppercuts as opponents try to get inside. He is very accurate with his punches. He catches kicks & returns with punches also. He has nice kicks himself. He has good body & head kicks. In close range, he has nasty elbows & knees he will throw. He will use step-in knees to the head that put opponents away. Park can stand a little heavy on his lead leg & sometimes can get a little wild & just trade. Overall, he is a good, technical striker with power. Park is always pressuring & pushing his opponents back. He has great cardio & will pick up the pace with his combinations when he sees opponents slowing down. He has very good flurries when his opponents are against the cage & it’s where he gets most of his knockouts.
Park looks to be a pretty good grappler. He is dangerous with his Jiu-Jitsu. He isn’t an offensive wrestler & will just use his front chokes to counter takedown attempts. He has a nice anaconda choke that he finished PFL fighter Ray Cooper with. His takedown defense looks like it could be a little better though. He has good get-ups when he does get taken down. He does a good job of using the cage to stand up. I feel if fighters can take him down in the open mat, it may be easier to control him. He will jump on the back when he rocks opponents & get rear naked chokes. Park has been submitted one time. Fighters who are going to give Park issues are elite wrestlers, or very good kickers. He is a pretty good fighter & interesting addition to the division.
Both guys are fairly well-rounded and have finishing ability on the feet or the mat. Neither guy is great at anything though and I think this is going to be a closely contested fight. I would say Park might have the slightly better standing and Hernandez the slightly better ground game, but neither have a big edge in either area and I think this is much closer to a 50/50 fight. I do think it mainly plays out on the feet as well, so I am going to lean with the underdog in this spot and I will take Park to get a victory in his UFC debut.
Park is one of the few dogs I am picking to win and if he does then I think he scores well over 10x here. He could win and not score well, but I think he has paths to finishes here and this could be a higher paced fight. I think he will be popular though, so we won’t be sneaky at all here, but I do plan on being overweight still. I think he is payable in cash as well. I don’t plan on having much, if any Hernandez at all. I think he makes for a better ownership play at this price because I don’t think many people will be on him, and he could finish as well.
Winner – Jun Yong Park via 2nd round (T)KO
Kenan Song $8,200 vs Derrick Krantz $8,000
Kenan Song
Age: 29
Height: 6’0
Weight: 170
Reach: 71.5”
Gym: Tiger Muay Thai
From: China
UFC Record: 2-1
Fight Matrix: 244
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -115
Kenan Song will be trying to bounce back from a loss to Alex Morono. It will be his 3rd UFC fight in China. He is a great counter boxer and has a nasty straight-right hand which he has used to finish both his UFC fights. He has a good, counter right hook and will crash the distance with straight punches. He will throw occasional front kicks to the body, and to the knee. He has strong body kicks. He is flat footed, and he needs opponents to engage with him in the pocket to be effective usually. Fighters who can stick and move will give him problems on the feet. He will try to throw the occasional spinning heel kicks to the body or head. He is a warrior and will continue to walk forward through shots to have the opportunity to land one and finish the match. He has 7 KO/TKO’s and has finished 4 of his last five matches in that way. He has been finished by strikes twice in his career.
Song is not really a grappler. He will not go for takedowns unless he is getting beat up on the feet. He likes to get clinch takedowns, but he doesn’t have great top control or a dangerous top game. His takedown defense is not great, he gets double legged very easily, and will go for guillotines instead of defending the takedown. Off his back, he isn’t very dangerous and can be controlled and finished with G&P. He did a better job of getting back to his feet after being taken down than in previous fights. He does have 3 guillotine chokes, and 6 submissions overall. He has never been submitted himself. He seems to get tired in round 2 of fights, but he can fight through fatigue.
Derrick Krantz
Age: 31
Height: 5’10
Weight: 170
Reach: 74”
Gym: Longview MMA
From: Texas
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 94
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -105
Derrick Krantz is hoping to have a better showing in his second UFC fight. He had a respectable showing against a killer in Vicente Luque, having early success, but was eventually finished. Krantz is the more experienced fighter here, but it will be his first time fighting out of the United States. Krantz is a wild & dangerous finisher. Krantz has big knockout power in his hands. He has a good jab. He has a nasty left hook & overhand right. He will explode into straight-right hands or left hooks, closing a lot of distance quickly. He likes to follow those blitzes with hook & uppercut flurries. He will throw an uppercut, left hook combination. He has a good front leg round kick to the body and will throw the rear leg body & head kick. He can get stuck on the outside & struggles to close the distance at times. He doesn’t have a lot of variety in his striking game & instead of setting things up, he tries to leap into shots. Fighters who are more athletic or technical than him can easily see those shots coming & move out of the way or counter. He has power & if he can land a clean bomb on Song, he could shock a lot of people. He has 9 KO/TKO’s & has been KO/TKO’d twice.
Krantz is a solid wrestler & has good takedown defense. He has had trouble on the mat with Jiu-Jitsu fighters & has been submitted a few times. Krantz likes to use his overhands to get inside & get double underhooks. He will drive opponents to the cage where he has a strong double leg. He has a good reactive double leg as well. He has good rear naked chokes when he gets on top and will look to lock in front chokes when opponents try to stand up. His takedown defense is strong. He has a good sprawl, heavy hips, and wall walks well. He will widen his base near the cage & is hard to takedown there. In grapple heavy fights, he does tend to tire & then becomes easier to takedown. He had a close contest against James Nakashima where he stuffed several takedowns vs a strong wrestler. When he does get taken down his Jiu-Jitsu is lacking. He allows fighters to move to dominant positions and is susceptible to being submitted. He has been submitted 5 times in his career. He does have 11 submissions of his own.
I really don’t trust either of these guys to get a win and this fight should stay at these odds in my opinion. Either guy could get a finish with a KO or a submission, but I don’t trust either guy to have dominant moments over the other. It could come down to one of these guys making a mistake and the other capitalizing on it. I think Song will likely look better early and Krantz better late. If Krantz can weather the early storm, I think he can get a late finish. With this card being in China, the judges could lean Song’s way in a close decision though.
I really don’t even have a preferred play in this fight, but I think this will be an important GPP fight to target. Either side could get a finish, and both are in play for 100+ DK points. I don’t trust either enough in cash, but I think this is one we should try to be overweight to both sides on. Unless you have a stronger lean than I do, I would probably make about 2-4 lineups with each guy if I was making 10 GPP lineups. If I was making just 1 GPP lineup I would probably want to avoid it just because I wouldn’t want to trust either guy, but I think this fight will be on the optimal lineup, so I want exposure to both sides and hopefully one of my combos can hit.
Winner – Derrick Krantz via 2nd round (T)KO
Mizuki Inoue $8,300 vs Yanan Wu $7,900
Mizuki Inoue
Age: 25
Height: 5’4
Weight: 125
Reach: 64”
Gym: Serra Longo Fight Team
From: Japan
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 24
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -145
Mizuki Inoue will be making her UFC debut stepping in on short notice. She is also fighting a Chinese fighter in China. Inoue is a veteran & should be ready to go here. She has fought higher level opponents than Wu. She has fought fighters such as Karolina Kowalkiewicz, Alexa Grasso, Bec Rawlings, and Virna Jandiroba. She is training with a good coach in Ray Longo. Although Inoue has been fighting since 2010, she is only 25 years old. She is 5-1 in her last 6 fights with the one loss coming by split decision, looking better than ever. She is normally a SW & will be a little undersized here. Inoue is highly entertaining & her fights with Kowalkiewicz & Grasso are some of the best female fights in MMA history. Inoue is a composed, technical striker. She likes to control the center, walk opponents down, & work behind her jab. She likes to have her hands out & open in order to parry strikes. Inoue has a nasty jab that is very fast & stiff. She has a nice left hook she will walk opponents into. She can pull counter & slip in the pocket. She has a nice pull counter, straight-right hand, along with slipping & countering with the right hook. Mizuki has excellent body & head movement. She will parry kicks away very effectively as well. Inoue will allow opponents to miss combinations by a hair in the pocket & is very calm. She will make opponents miss 4-5 shots in a row & then land one well-timed counter. The problem with that is sometimes judges don’t know what they are looking at. They will count the misses & aggressiveness of her opponent more because there are more punches thrown. Inoue doesn’t throw many combinations. She will throw one-twos, but with her hooks or straights, it’s usually just a one-shot counter. Inoue throws front kicks to the body & head. In Mizuki’s last fight, I think it’s the best she’s ever looked on the feet. She looked extremely fast & was constantly moving in & out & feinting. If fighters want to play the outside game with Inoue, she most likely is going to piece them up. She struggles much more when fighters throw in combination. She is a bit low volume & it can make fights close. When Mizuki gets hit, she shows no expression & has an excellent chin. She has supreme composure in the cage & is always calm & within herself. Mizuki has never been finished. She isn’t a power striker, doing more sticking & moving. She has zero KO/TKO’s.
Mizuki Inoue is a very good grappler. She isn’t a super active wrestler but will go for takedowns. She has a good, low single leg, along with clinch takedowns. She will land nice hip throws, & trip takedowns. Inoue can sometimes get her back taken when she uses the low single and can also end up on her back getting reversed off the throws. She has no issues fighting off her back. Inoue has a very good guard. She will get her feet on the hips, try to trap arms & look for submissions & sweeps. She will strike well off her back with hammer fists & elbows. Her armbars are extremely fast & dangerous. She has caught many fighters with the armbar. She has 9 armbar submissions out of 13 wins. She can get grinded out with takedowns & is too complacent off her back when she can’t find submissions. When she fought Virna Jandiroba, who is also a black belt, Jandiroba was able to take her down, control her & eventually even pass her guard & take her back. Mizuki stayed calm & scrambled out, never being in real danger of the submission. When Mizuki takes top position, she is nasty. She is a great passer & will quickly move to mount & land hard shots. She will look for armbars from the mount along with taking the back. Mizuki has one rear naked choke & 10 submissions overall.
Yanan Wu
Age: 23
Height: 5’9
Weight: 125
Reach: 66”
Gym: Tiger Muay Thai
From: China
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +125
Yanan Wu is a young, hungry fighter coming off an upset victory in her second UFC fight. She was able to finish Lauren Mueller in the first round. Wu Yanan is going to be significantly bigger in this matchup. She is powerful & very aggressive in round one. Wu has 6 first round finishes. She likes to throw a stiff jab from the outside followed by punch combinations. She is aggressive, walks forward and has decent hand speed in the pocket. She does throw wide and wild at times and will sometimes leave herself open to being countered. She is not the most fleet of foot woman either and kind of plods forward. She will throw out a leg kick and a front kick, but they are more to find the range than land with effect. She struggles with forward pressure and doesn’t know how to strike moving backwards. She has a lot of experience for only being 23 years old being pro since 2013. She has won 6 fights via KO/TKO and does pack some power. She has only been finished 1 time via strikes, and it was on the ground.
Yanan Wu isn’t a bad grappler. She is strong early, and good in the clinch with knees and short punches. She has nice body lock takedowns. She has heavy ground & pound. When she fought Yana Kunitskaya and Gina Mazany, she got taken down rather easily, but she showed some skills off her back, almost getting a sweep and attacking with a leg lock. She got dropped in her last fight but was able to lock up an armbar & finish the fight seconds later. I would be very surprised to see her submit a tenured grappler like Mizuki though. She doesn’t have great get-ups. She seems to enjoy leg locks and working in 50-50 guard. She was eventually overwhelmed and stopped by ground and pound in round 2 vs Yana & grinded out by Mazany. Wu tends to slow down after round one & lose the grappling. She will just try to plod forward & sloppily get in the clinch. She has two submission victories in her career, both in the first round via armbar. In this fight, I think Wu has to be aggressive & try to use her physicality & size. She needs to try and get in the clinch, push Mizuki to the cage, lean on her, throw short shots & eventually get top position. I don’t think she can strike very effectively with Mizuki due to the speed advantage. Wu does hit hard & has a chance to hurt her opponents if she connects clean.
I like what I have seen from Inoue’s striking and I think she should have a decent edge on the feet in this fight. Yanan isn’t a bad striker herself but I think her best path to victory would be through the ground. Her kicking is the best part of her striking and I think Inoue will have the better hands, the better movement and I don’t see a kicking game having a lot of success here. I also don’t think Yanan is a good enough wrestler to consistently get this fight to the mat and I think this fight will mainly play out on the feet.
On DraftKings, Inoue is my preferred play, but I don’t love this fight for GPPs. I think she is a fine cash game play, but I don’t think she has a huge ceiling. I doubt she goes for takedowns and I don’t see her getting a KO either, so we are relying on the win bonus and significant strikes only. I think she can get 10x here, but I don’t think she has 100+ upside so I won’t have a lot of her in my GPP lineups. Yanan is in play as well because she could grapple her way to a win and that could score well, but I will be full fading her this week and hoping she doesn’t get another 1st round finish out of nowhere.
Winner – Mizuki Inoue via Unanimous Decision
Movsar Evloev $9,500 vs Zhenhong Lu $6,700
Movsar Evloev
Age: 25
Height: 5’9
Weight: 145
Reach: 72.5”
Gym: Fight Club Nart
From: Russia
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 68
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W11
Betting Odds: -900
Movsar Evloev had a dominant UFC debut against Seung Woo Choi. He looked as if he could potentially be a future contender. He is getting a late replacement in this fight, and it’s actually a rematch of a fight from 2015. Evloev is a grinder. He has decent striking, but not great. He will throw a jab and one-two out there. He will throw check left hooks. He likes to grab the single collar & throw uppercuts. He will throw solid rear leg head kicks & question mark kicks. I feel he will struggle with fighters who have solid movement & range striking. He doesn’t have a lot to close the distance & can overextend with sloppy hooks or overhands trying to get inside. He has 3 career KO/TKO’s & has shown a good chin.
Evloev is an excellent wrestler. He has nice double legs. He will shoot singles & take the back. He is extremely strong & will dig an underhook & muscle opponents to the mount. He likes to get into half guard & smashes opponents until they turtle up & he can ride them out. Most of the time when he’s taking an opponent down, they don’t get back up for the remainder of the round, especially as the fight goes on. He has a strong mount & will throw hard G&P. He has great back takes & back control. He has tremendous grappling cardio & wears on fighters with his pressure, pace & riding ability. He has been in five round fights & not slowed down. He is good off his back at sweeping to top position as well, but overall, is very hard to takedown. He has 4 submissions, all rear naked chokes.
Zhenhong Lu
Age: 26
Height: 5’8
Weight: 145
Reach: N/A
Gym: Enbo Gedou
From: China
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 291
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +600
Zhenhong Lu is jumping in on short notice in this spot to make his UFC debut. He is from China & will have the crowd on his side here. He had a rough start to his career, but Lu is actually a pretty good fighter. He is explosive early with knockout power. Lu’s striking is not very technical going first. He will come forward & wing big, powerful hooks. He has a good left hook to body kick combination. He will throw a right hook to a body kick combination also. He will throw one-twos to a leg or head kicks. He doesn’t use a lot of movement & is flat footed. He prefers to let opponents come to him & try to counter. He has good head & body movement & will make opponents miss, then make them pay. Overall, his striking is wild & not extremely polished. He has 5 KO/TKO’s. He has been knocked out one time.
Zhenhong Lu is an aggressive grappler. He will use his striking to get inside on singles, doubles & body locks. When he takes opponents down he will throw heavy ground & pound. He likes to stand up in opponent’s guards & rain down punches. He will posture up & throw big elbows. He will move to side control & drill knees to the body until opponents give their backs. He has good back takes & rear naked chokes. His takedown defense isn’t bad, but he can be taken down. Fighters can get in on his legs against the cage & in space. Movsar was largely able to take him down at will. Evloev was able to take his back & control him from there, especially in the later rounds. Lu is hard to submit & was able to turn in & take top position. He has a nice guillotine & had a kimura in his last match. Lu has 5 submissions & has never been submitted. His cardio is good & is 11-1 in his last 12 matches.
Evloev is the biggest favorite on the card and for good reason. He should be the better striker and grappler in this matchup and he could get a finish with a KO or a sub. I will take him to be the better fighter over the course of 15-minutes though and taking a clear 30-27 decision. Lu isn’t bad but Evloev looks like the real deal and I think Lu would need a KO to pull off the upset.
It’s Evloev or pass for me on DraftKings this week. I think we can lock him into cash and take the win without worrying about how much he scores. However, I am not positive he gets 100+ here so we can get away from him in GPPs if needed. If I can afford him then I do like him in all formats. I won’t have any Lu this week though and even with 20 lineups I would still probably fade him.
Winner – Movsar Evloev via Unanimous Decision
Kai Kara-France $9,100 vs Mark De La Rosa $7,100
Kai Kara-France
Age: 26
Height: 5’3
Weight: 125
Reach: 69”
Gym: Tiger Muay Thai
From: Australia
UFC Record: 2-0
Fight Matrix: 21
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W7
Betting Odds: -210
Kai Kara-France has been a strong addition to the FW division. He is an entertaining fighter & looking to run his UFC record to 3-0. Kara-France is going to try to control distance in this fight, keep De La Rosa on the end of his shots, walk him down while moving in & out of range. He does a great job of side stepping and using misdirection to find openings for his punch combinations. He has a great jab, both to the head and the body. He likes to draw out shots from his opponents, so he can slip and return. He has a nasty overhand right, left hook combination. He will pepper his opponents, keeping heavy volume, doubling and tripling up the jab before throwing a hard uppercut left or right hook. He is diligent attacking the body with hard hooks. He likes to throw fade away check left hooks as he’s angling off and slip overhand rights in the pocket. He has nice leg kicks and will throw high kicks at the end of combinations. When he starts to land specific combinations, he will feint the combinations, and then throw a different strike really keeping his opponents guessing. He has 10 KO/TKO’s and is a very good and dangerous striker in space. He has been KO/TKO’d 2 times. He seems to not deal with pressure the best or combination punching.
Kai Kara-France is a solid grappler. He isn’t an offensive grappler, and he uses his wrestling in reverse most of the time to keep the fight on the feet. He is very slippery and explosive when fighters try to take him down and will bounce right back up. He does a great job of getting his back to the cage when fighters attempt takedowns and he’s able to stuff most takedowns. He has a great sprawl on double legs and does a great job of getting double underhooks and pushing off when fighters try to clinch up with him. His footwork makes it hard to jam him against the cage because he does a great job of using lateral movement and staying in center of cage. He had a very competitive fight with Alexandre Pantoja in which he was able to stuff almost all his takedown attempts. In his last fight, he was taken down a few times and controlled for portions of time on the mat. I think that de la Rosa will be looking for takedowns, so he has to be on point with the defense. In his match against Elias Garcia, he did an excellent job of getting on top after sprawling and showed great G&P. He will stand up in opponent’s guards & rain down accurate punches. He does a great job of floating & transitioning while keeping top position. He has strong G&P in the wrestling ride position and will force opponents to give their backs. He has been rear naked choked twice in his only two submission losses in MMA.
Mark De La Rosa
Age: 24
Height: 5’4
Weight: 125
Reach: 65”
Gym: Genesis BJJ
From: Texas
UFC Record: 2-2
Fight Matrix: 32
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +175
Mark De La Rosa had his two-fight winning streak snapped by Alex Perez in his last match. He is 2-2 in his UFC career, but his two losses are against top 10 opponents. He is making the drop down to 125 lbs for the second time in his career. Mark De La Rosa has a pressure boxing style with good fluidity & combinations. He has a great chin & cardio continuing to come forward & stay in an opponent’s face. He has very nice low leg kicks also. He is also a good wrestler & black belt in Jiu-Jitsu. He will use his boxing style to back opponents up & get in on the upper body or legs against the cage. He will throw heavy lead & counter left hooks. He will throw a left hook, right uppercut combination. He has nice hard hooks in combination in close range. He has fast hands & will unload with hooks & uppercuts to close the distance. He is good at constantly walking fighters down & being able to slip and counter with punches as he does. He has nice, low calf kicks and hard body kicks. He will throw the occasional head kick. He is flat footed & doesn’t move his head. He can get hit with some nice shots coming in, but he has a good chin. He isn’t the greatest athlete & I feel will struggle vs faster, more explosive strikers on the feet. His constant forward pressure & leg kicks do wear opponents out. He does have some pop in his hands, but not KO power. He is someone who will wear on fighters over the course of 3 rounds. He has one TKO & has never been finished by strikes.
Mark De La Rosa is very physical, especially for 125 lbs. He tries to use his boxing to push fighters towards the cage & then get inside where he can get the takedown. He will try to grab double underhooks or the plum clinch. He has good clinch takedowns off the cage. He does a great job of getting a high crotch single and transitioning to the back. He has good reactive double legs. On top, he is heavy & has nice elbows. He has good guard passes & a great back take. He has great control on the back & is good at locking the body triangle in and getting the RNC. He can be taken down, but he has good defense and scrambling ability as well as having a great guard. He has very fast hips and will throw up triangles and armbars very quickly. His last fight he was taken down & controlled on the mat against Alex Perez. Perez was able to quell the forward pressure of De La Rosa with his clinch game & takedowns which I don’t think France will be able to do. He almost got Tim Elliot in multiple submissions in his debut off his back. He has great cardio & is a tough guy. He will take shots & continue to come forward and won’t back down. He has 6 career submissions & has never been submitted.
I think De La Rosa is going to need a submission to win this fight. I don’t think he will be able to control where the fight takes place though for the most part and I think Kara-France will pick him apart on the feet. The line is a bit too wide though because De La Rosa could pull off the sub, but I do think Kara-France stuffs takedowns and wins a clear striking decision.
I like both sides of this fight on DraftKings, but I’d probably have to go with Kara-France as my preferred play. I wouldn’t want to go heavy on this fight, but this is one that I think both sides are in play and could score highly. I don’t hate either side in cash games either. I think Kara-France has a higher ceiling though with a 1st round KO potential. If he doesn’t get a finish, then it will be hard to pay off his salary. With De La Rosa, I think he has to get the fight to the mat and get a sub and that is only going to score highly if it comes in round 1. If I was making 10 lineups I would probably go 1-2 Rosa and 1-3 Kara-France. If I was making 3 or less lineups I would pick a side or just avoid it.
Winner – Kai Kara-France via Unanimous Decision
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos $9,200 vs Li Jingliang $7,000
Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos
Age: 32
Height: 5’9
Weight: 170
Reach: 73”
Gym: CM Systems
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 7-1
Fight Matrix: 23
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W7
Zaleski Dos Santos is a warrior. He loves to bite down on the mouthpiece & go to war and he hits hard. He is very athletic & sneaky explosive. Zaleski has a nice jab & good inside leg kicks. He has a nice straight-right hand & throws hard right hooks. He will throw jab, overhand right combos. He also will throw hard hook combos with both hands. He will rip the body with hard left hooks & straight-rights. He will throw rear leg body kicks to a straight-right hand combination. He has good head kicks with both legs. His front leg is good. He has nice lead leg kicks, round & sidekicks to the body, and head. He has nice capoeira kicks & KO’d Sean Strickland with a spinning heel kick. He will throw spinning heel kicks to the body as well. He is good at using lateral footwork to walk opponents into his kicks, hooks & overhands. Zaleski has won 7 UFC fights in a row. He has 14 KO/TKO’s in his career. He has an amazing chin & recoverability. If both fighters hurt each other and this fight gets wild, expect Zaleski to be the one left standing. He has never been finished in his career via strikes.
Zaleski is going to be the better grappler & I expect him to try to exploit that. He is good in the clinch, he has nice double underhooks and will land nasty knees to the body. He will throw nice elbows over the top. He has hard hook & uppercut combinations off the break. Zaleski is not a super active grappler, but he showed good fight IQ getting a quick submission in his last fight. He is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu. He has shown some decent timing on double & single legs. I see him having an advantage on top. We haven’t seen his top game much, but he finished Strickland with some brutal hammerfists & submitted Curtis Millender. He was able to drop Max Griffin & quickly take the back, but didn’t keep the position long. He has attempted some tricky subs in the octagon like Peruvian neck ties. Zaleski has only three career submissions, and has been submitted twice himself. He has fantastic cardio & an iron will.
Li Jingliang
Age: 31
Height: 6’0
Weight: 170
Reach: 71.5”
Gym: China Top Team
From: China
UFC Record: 8-3
Fight Matrix: 81
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Li Jingliang is getting another home game here in China. He has won 5 of 6 fights, 2 by KO/TKO. He has good shots in the pocket with his hooks and a takes a shot to give a shot. He has nice low leg kicks, and nice straight-right hand. He will let his hand go and throw hooks and uppercuts in combination. He likes to walk fighters down and counter with an overhand right. He has a questionable chin and sometimes gets rocked early and comes back to win. It seems like he needs to get hit to get going & it actually wakes him up. He has big power in his straight-right hand and can put fighters down with it. He has 6 KO/TKO’s and has never been finished with strikes.
The Leach has really improved his grappling. He used to get taken down and controlled earlier in his career, but not nearly as much since going to Xtreme Coutures. He has solid takedown defense and get-ups now. If fighters are able to get on top of him, he still doesn’t have a great bottom game and can be controlled on the mat. Jake Matthews was able to take his back and probably would have submitted him if Jingliang didn’t gouge his eyes. Jingliang will not be trying to engage in the grappling or the clinch in this fight and will want to use his wrestling in reverse to make it a striking fight. Li Jingliang needs to make this a brawl & try to get a knockout.
This should be a fun one. Both guys are exciting strikers and love to get in brawls. I do think Dos Santos is the rightful favorite and I think he is the more well-rounded fighter and better overall striker. But at this line I think the value is on Jingliang. If he can drag Dos Santos into a brawl, then he could get a KO or keep this fight close and get the home country decision. I’ll take the favorite to get his hand raised but this is a dog or pass fight on the betting line.
I love this fight for DraftKings because it should be a banger and either side could go down. I like EZ Dos Santos because he has more ways to win and he is the better fighter. I like him in all formats, but he does have a lower floor because either guy could get a round 1 KO. Jingliang is also a solid play for GPPs because when he wins, he usually scores highly. With this fight being in China he could even steal a decision win here. Either way, this fight will be in most of my lineups for GPPs. I will probably avoid it in cash games, but I might go all-in for GPPs.
Winner – Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
Jessica Andrade $8,700 vs Weili Zhang $7,500
Jessica Andrade
Age: 27
Height: 5’1
Weight: 115
Reach: 62”
Gym: Paraná Vale Tudo
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 11-4
Fight Matrix: 1
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: -170
Jessica Andrade is a powerhouse, terminator type fighter. Proving that in her last fight taking a lot of damage in round one & coming back to have one of the knockouts of the year. She keeps extreme pressure on opponents and is constantly walking them down. She will attack the body & head with ripping hooks & overhands. She will throw a left hook to the body to left hook to the head combination. When she backs opponents up towards the cage, she has the cardio to unload with long combinations & try to overwhelm and take opponents out. She landed a nasty right hook that knocked her opponent out cold in her last fight. She will occasionally throw leg kicks, but she is almost exclusively a boxer. She has a great chin and will continue to march forward even after being hit. She tends to only come in on straight lines & when she fought Joanna she was throwing at air a lot. She can be countered with straight punches, kicks and doesn’t really care about defense. She has been dropped a couple times in fights, but largely has been able to eat shots no problem. Even in the fights she got dropped, she recovered quickly and went right back on the offensive. Andrade has 7 KO/TKO’s & has been finished by strikes two times.
Andrade is an excellent wrestler. She is a powerhouse and will manhandle opponents. When she gets in the clinch, she can elevate opponents & get big slams or get big trip takedowns. She had one of the best slam takedowns in UFC history in her last fight. She took Claudia Gadelha on some rides with huge slam takedowns. She doesn’t shoot takedown shots much, but when she gets in the clinch, fighters are getting taken down. When she gets in top position, she has heavy thudding ground & pound and has finished a couple fights with it. She will try to move to dominant positions & finish the fight. She has 7 career submissions. She will jump on guillotines & she has decent submissions. She has been submitted a couple times herself, but at 135 lbs. She has been submitted twice. Andrade has phenomenal cardio & needs it here. Early on, I see her coming forward hard & trying to take Weili’s head off. If she struggles with the movement & getting inside I see her trying to take her down. If she can cut off the cage, get in the clinch, I see her getting Weili down, and on top she is going to look to do damage and finish the fight.
Weili Zhang
Age: 30
Height: 5’3
Weight: 115
Reach: 63”
Gym: Back Tiger Fight Club
From: China
UFC Record: 3-0
Fight Matrix: 5
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W19
Betting Odds: +150
Weili Zhang is jacked & incredibly strong for the division. She is a powerful striker & an elite grappler. Zhang likes to throw a lot of front & round kicks to the body. She is light on her feet, very fast in & out and hits hard. She has good inside, outside leg kicks. She will throw a jab, inside leg kick or jab, body kick. She has nasty front & sidekicks to the body. She is excellent at using her sidekick to keep opponents at bay. She has nice straight punches & likes to throw them in combination to close the distance. She has good counter straight-right hands as well. She can get clipped with counter punches when she throws her kicks without setting them up. She will also lean back instead of moving her feet to avoid punches at times which is a bad habit. She has a very good chin and can eat shots & continue to come forward. She is in perpetual forward motion walking her opponents down. She does a good job of catching kicks & throwing punches or taking opponents down. When she hurts opponents, she will swarm in combination. She likes to throw straight punch & uppercut combinations when fighters are backed against the cage & will throw head kicks as fighters try to exit. She will also throw spinning back kicks to the head. She can get a little wild inside & throw hard hooks and get countered. Danielle Taylor hurt her a bit with a counter right hook. Some people think she may be a little bit chinny, but she has never been finished with strikes. She has 9 career submissions.
Zhang is an incredible grappler & very physically strong. She is mean & whenever she’s in grappling scenarios she’s trying to do damage. She will throw viscous knees to the body & can fold opponents with them. She will throw hard elbows & punches in the clinch. When she hurts opponents in the clinch, she will throw huge ground & pound for the finish. She does not let her opponents off the hook. She will throw nasty elbows, hammerfists & if she hurts opponents she usually finishes. She will get the over/under in the clinch & drive opponents to the mat. She is very good in half guard & will rain down hard elbows. Danielle Taylor did attack with a leg lock & was able to get back to her feet. Zhang loves to get to half guard & get the crucifix position. She will throw nasty elbows & hammerfists from that position. She can bloody the face of opponents with elbows & brutalized Jessica Aguilar with elbows. She has smooth passes into mount & will batter opponents from there as well. She will take the back & go for rear naked chokes. She has been taken down herself, but she is good off her back. She has a nice butterfly guard & will attack with leg locks of her own. She will attack with triangles & armbars off her back also. Against Jessica Aguilar, she got her guard high, attacking with the triangle while landing brutal elbows and ultimately transitioning to an armbar. Zhang has 7 career submissions & has never been submitted. She has incredible cardio & will slowly take the will away from her opponents. She is going to need to set her kicks up much better in this fight & use her hands first to close the distance.
This is for the Women’s Strawweight championship and will be Andrade’s first attempt at defending her belt. Zhang looks like the real deal and I think she will be able to keep this fight close. However, I think Andrade is going to be too much for her right now and Zhang has never felt the kind of power Andrade is bringing to the table. I think Andrade will be landing the harder punches with more volume and I like her to be the one landing takedowns as well. She could get a finish here, but I think Zhang will be good enough to last all 5-rounds and she may be able to win 1 or 2 of them. I can’t pick her over Andrade at this point though.
This is an all-in fight for sure. This will be in every lineup I make, and I will be stacking it in cash games. Andrade is the preferred play and I expect her to be the highest owned fighter on the card. If I was making 10 lineups I would probably go 6-7 Andrade and 3-4 Zhang. I do want to be overweight to Zhang here though because I think Andrade could be close to 60% owned this week and it will be tough to be overweight on that. Either way, we can’t avoid this fight in GPPs because at their prices I would be shocked if the winner wasn’t on the optimal lineup. I am also not even against stacking it in a GPP or two if you want to.
Winner – Jessica Andrade via Unanimous Decision
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
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